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D-DJI

MAN AND MONEY vs VIRUS! WHO WILL WIN?The picture of the 2019-nCOV is rapidly evolving. Globally there have been >14,000 cases and >305 deaths. The trajectory of spread of this virus has exceeded SARS (2003). In under 20 days there are 14,544 cases. There were less than 20 cases in the same period for SARS. SARS plateaued off at 8,500 cases after 100 days then fell off. What we're seeing in hard evidence is that nCOV is going rapidly exponential - almost doubling in 20 days what SARS reached in 100 days. 8 countries have effectively quarantined China in various ways. AND NOW - China has told everybody to calm down, that it will maintain financial stability and pump their market with USD$173 Billion from Monday 3rd February 2020. The FED and Australia are considering similar moves. The global economic disruption in what was a 'risk-off' situation, is gonna be serious and probably last well over a year. This doesn't mean that the markets will tank over the next year. It means expect bearish pressure. Think also about an 'endpoint'. How will anybody know when it is safe to open borders, trade and travel in China? If the VIX gets above 53 there is serious trouble! Declarations & Disclaimers: For the avoidance of doubt, this post is only about potential impact of a virus in financial contexts. I take no comfort at all in people suffering and dying. Whilst I am sorry about the human consequences, I deal with the markets as an instrument - like any other. It is not illegal or immoral to exploit the movement of any market for any cause. As usual this is not trading advice. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
SP:SPXEducation
by Captain_Walker
How High Can Apple Go?Something that only people who study the market understands. Market is human emotions and human emotions is full of energy and energy is Physics. Apple has broken all the important trend line resistances, in simple word, Apple has already LIFT OFF from its base. When you have a rocket lift off from its base, then it is going parabolic. In this case, you will NEVER KNOW when this trend ends until AFTER THE FACT. Apple can easily doubled and go to 500-600 bucks in the next month and that will be the END of this move or it will continue to grind up higher and higher and higher until it who knows what price. But when you have a parabola like this, it will usually ends in DISASTER. So, if the stock market keeps going up in this parabolic fashion, sometimes in the future, there will be a major crash. But you never know when until after THE FACT. Looking at sentiments, it seems that things can keep going up from now. Its all about capital flow and Apple is telling us something. And that information can be used to trade other stocks in the same sector or Apple's supply chain. Everything is inter connected and related. Anyone who only looks at one chart and make decisions based on that have lower probabilities of success versus someone who studies every market and see the connections. For example. Apple can doubled, but some other stocks may go 10x due to Apple, you only can make that kind of forecast if you have breadth of data and analysis and ai to help you Done.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by UnknownUnicorn735418
1
REVIEW: DJI (Wall Street), DAX and nuclear options. I've looked into the DJI and the DAX because they are connected. I also considered events affecting the Hong Kong index. In the text below, I consider China's 'nuclear option'. Overall I'd say the probability is greater for the south on these indices (from this point in time). But caution - because there is a residual probability for the north and I can't know how far south the markets may go if the markets are with me. These are very troubled times. 1. The markets are overbought because of QE4.0, lowering of interest rates and high hopes about a China 'Phase one' trade deal. 2. But there is trouble in the Hong Kong Stock market. 3. POTUS signed the Hong Kong Democracy Act which could cause the Chinese to retaliate in some way (nobody knows how). The 15th of December 2019 is an important date on which $160 Billion of tariffs on imports to the USA, get lumped on China or they are withdrawn. If the tariffs are withdrawn, expect markets to head to the moon (stupidly). If the tariffs are applied, expect a correction of some sort. Bond troubles In other trouble China has begun the so called nuclear option of selling off US Treasuries. Note that Treasuries are bonds, which means that money is owed to China by America i.e. they represent a debt owed by the US. Why would China sell off US Treasuries - which are debts owed to China? Perhaps because China expects the US Dollar to be worth less in times to come. It's like this - if I lend you money fixed in USD value, and then you decide to devalue your US dollar by various means, it means I'm getting back less value. For an exploration of Bonds go here . China holds about $1.2 Trillion of US debt. A sell off of US Treasuries is said to destabilise financial markets. How - is a separate complex story. The point is that China's retaliation on the Hong Kong Act could be this 'nuclear option'. The point of all this is that there are complex issues affecting the markets. Disclaimer: Nothing shared here is investment advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
1
Dow Jones Trading 2 HR Chart Oktober EducationHere i show you a simple trading stragety on a 2 HR Chart. So only a few trades in a month. Trading Long if you have a high high anmd trading short if you have a lower low. 10 Trades + 330 + 60 + 400 - 270 - 45 + 30 + 45 - 110 - 190 + 250 6 Gewinner + 1115 Points 4 Verlierer - - 715 Points SUMMARY 400 POINTS with only 4 times a day to watch the chart It would be even better in a 1 HR chart with more trades and better Results Good trades. if you want to support my work, please like them My analyes here are all NOT a request to buy or sell seomething. Allways do you own research. Renkotrade
TVC:DJIEducation
by Renkotrade
DOW JONES/SPX500 - EU woke up with a strong downwards moveHello traders I. Wisdom of the day I heard a lot of trading saying that trading INDICES (CFD) is only interesting when the USA wakes up. Nothing could be further from the truth... It's not common knowledge that the DOW JONES/SPX500 often give an interesting move when the Europeans wake up. This interesting trade often happens between 6:30 and 8:30 am (UTC+2) II. Why a 1-minute chart? This is not a scalping trading method, it's intraday and based on smoothed indicators for entering in a strong trend only. The Algorithm Builder method won't give more than 3/5 trades per day even. Those are the most secure trades possible because: - the system waits for a strong confirmation and will avoid the fakeouts - the 1 minute allows to enter very early. This point is crucial. I made it so that to enter early but with a minimum of security. III. Signals of the day 3.1 Morning trade No trade is easy. Especially when I just woke up, signal given in front of supports but... you know the drill... What's a decent way to reduce one's risk? Answer : Wait for a pullback. I usually wait for a pullback near the EMA(20) - symbolized by the red circles on my screenshot. Pullbacks and invalidations are keys to reduce one's risk - which put more weight on the opportunity side of the opportunity/risk scale 3.2 Afternoon trades The first signal was in front of resistances and against a leading trend. A leading trend in a bigger timeframe also increases the trade security => less risk IV. Last words Do you think that looking first to decrease the risk and then capturing the opportunity is the way to go? All the best, Dave
FX:US30Education
by Daveatt
2
REPOCALYPSE NOW!This is serious. Find out what 'REPOCALYPSE' is about. Protect your positions very carefully. Get real - I don't know when it's happening nor does anybody else. REPOCALYPSE is not just doom-saying stuff, though it might appear sensationalist. This is reality mates. Those who keep there heads in the sand and do not take protective actions will be flushed out. DISCLAIMER: All statements here are over-simplifications of very complex issues, and are speculative opinion. This is not constructed as advice for making decisions about trading in securities. Your losses are your own. Declaration : This post is consistent with Tradingview's house rules on text-based analyses.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
Welcome to the great depression of the 2020s. It is starting.Summer is over, childrens are forced back to school, and policy makers and money movers are back. Going to try going to the point here. And just going to look at the west (NA & Central + North + West europe) and south east asia. Africa is pointless, and then I do not want to look at every country russia north africa australia etc there is too much to look at there's probably some interesting places and companies (or will be spread a little every where). South America is probably rip also. There are alot of things so I'll use bullet points. I will try listing most of the major facts. > Long Term + IQs in the west have dropped around 15 points since the 19th century. Which is huge. An average person today would be mentally retarded back in 1870. In particular the drop has accelerated since 1975. The smartest people on the planet now are in SEA, by a small lead, not enough to go all in invest there. + Huge waves of migrants in the west never seen in history. + Aging population in the West and Japan. + Biggest debt ever (and lowest rates, even negative), everywhere almost. + Due to low IQs and tech advances, people have a harder time adapting. People are getting dumber while jobs are requiring more intellect... + End of the communication Kondriatev Cycle. + Crowded planet, Polluted planet, Ressource Exhausted planet. + Possible end of an ERA started in the west with first renaissance (including finance) in north italy, then conquest of the world/new world, tech advances, industrial revolutions, and in this 3rd millenia first few years it went absolutely parabolic, adoption curves are vertical, and everyone thinks it won't ever end (LOL!). Looking VERY similar to Rome. Actually the exact same. Same inflation, same migrant waves, etc. + Very low Testosterone levels in the west also. No babies. Priorities changed. Paradigm shift. Check the new field called biohistory. + Central banks have gotten too much power, and their monetary policies make no sense. + World trying to "cheat" and fast forward the economy, and over consumption of every thing. Just an idiotic mentality. > Medium Term + Debt not planned on getting better. Here is the ridiculous CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook: www.cbo.gov + As suprising as something that unbelievably dumb is, "people" (disgraceful sub-humans) praise governments that were running during great economic times, and blame those that were around during recessions or depressions. It's so stupid it hurts, it even hurts to have to lower myself to acknowledge this, but things are as they are and what unbelievably stupid sub humans think (if we can call it thinking) has consequences. And the consequence is governments want to postpone recessions and pump the economy up... Plunge protection team is really ridiculous (USA Europe China all have theirs)... + The 90% are getting poorer, the income and wealth gaps are as big or bigger than in 1929. + Of course socialism and facism are getting cool again. Especially socialism. Inequality + much stupider simian beasts... + Price to Earnings at 1929 levels, highest they ever got (apart from 2000 but those were all growth stocks) + Price to GDP (buffet indicator) at highest level... + Bond rates are so dumb. + Social justice insanity, it doesn't even make sense most of the time. + Magic Internet Money ponzi schemes symptom of the problem(s) and absolutely ridiculous. > Short term + Hong Kong exploded. + Sweden (swedistan they say) going kaboom. + LA.... is full of drug addicts, crime everywhere (criminals get super light sentences), homeless everywhere, ultra high inequality, they have medieval diseases that even india does not have, it's a complete dump full of typhus carrying rats, and trash, I could go on. Complete dump. Ridiculous. + Political divide in the US is so high now... 1/3 of casual citizens and 2/3 experts think a civil war is imminent. + etc... + And this: Q4 is the best period for trading, I will make a separate idea for this, during this week. And September-October is usually the period when the stock market falls. Here are a few examples: Black Monday 1987 ==> Oct. 19, 1987 "Black" days before the 20th century ==> Sep/Oct also... I think I made an idea on this a while ago... Not going to look for it. Big crashes and bad things happen in this period very often take my word for it. (This should be known). > Prediction for the next 5 years * Q1 2018 to mid 2019 was a period of uncertainty (well not if you have been following me, I have been very certain of what was going on). September or October will mark the start of the great depression of the 2020s. Do not expect CNBC to talk about this, or maybe they'll have some guests they consider excentric that claim this, but the "pros" will only be aware the depression started somewhere in 2020 or even 2021, and the mainstream even later than that. In 50 years of course we will trace back the beginning to the next days... * The indices are just numbers. The master manipulators probably do their best to "keep numbers up" but it will all go down any way. For example if the indices numbers are up DOUBLE but inflation is 500%, they are not really up. They probably just try their hardest to keep numbers up for the sake of having numbers up. But everything collapses regardless. I would not go short with so much really stupid manipulation. Indices fall, Trump gives a call to the central bank and banks "to talk about something else pinky swear" and then numbers go up the next day... Can go down regardless. If the clowns running the show force the numbers to go up they will just keep making things much worse. I am talking about destroying the United States of America in a record short time. But still... I don't see a short... Numbers can be artificially proped up while real things get worse. I only do short term anyway (1 day to 5 weeks). So it's out of my field of expertise anyway... Just too much manipulation and random factors for me. I think in longer terms only buy and hold or get out and wait for a turn is the way to go, speculating in particular short is better shorter term not that interesting long term. Just my opinion. * Currencies I expect to become much more volatile soon. Yay! Dollar probably won't be a safe haven this time. It is already overpriced since Europe and China have been devaluing their currencies to the limit. * Cryptocurrencies will be a big hedge against the depression. Nah I'm just kidding they are going to zero of course. Not going to go into details check my crypto ideas + common sense. * I am not sure about commodities. Gold and Silver go up, Oil down maybe? Agri will be more volatile. Copper down, less is being done, less demand...
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
13
Stocks vs GoldSince 1971 when the USD and most other fiat currencies were not linked to Gold anymore, we haven't seen stocks really go up. Stocks expressed in Gold were already up substantially at the time and after Nixon closed the gold window Stocks dropped 95% against gold. Below I have put the DJIA since 1915 and 1971, as these are the best data we can get. The truth is that on Tradingview I can cleanly analyse only one market at a time as it doesn't have the global combine stock market capitalization. Yes there have been lots of other markets that have gone up since that time and the global economy has definitely grown, but I am here to make certain points based on the fact that the US economy is the largest in the world: A. Since 1971 the US stock market has dropped 95% and 87% and between those two big drops it had a 4000% increase B. At the moment it looks like stocks have started their new bull run in 2011 C. In USD terms the DJIA has been going up for time periods that are a bit longer than the total amount of time it was going down & sideways, the time for the next drop might be almost here. You might be thinking why does that matter? You might think: Gold is pretty useless, it has an inflation rate of about 1-2% and all that matters is that stocks are going up and paying dividends! The truth is that as a whole stocks have performed better than Gold and have provided nice dividends through the years to investors, but Gold has had much less risk and until 2011 it was the best store of value. However you have to understand that this huge rally and these huge drops happened as Central banks and commercial banks globally increased the total money supply (in dollar terms) by about 20-40x. Gold was the soundest money the humanity ever had and moving to a new insane monetary standard distorted things on all markets and created various bubbles. We can see that the global money supply is about 80-90T 'worth of USD' and the total worth of all stocks globally is about 70-80T USD. By following the way new money has been created/printed we can see that stocks have pretty much tracked the global expansion of the money supply. Someone could say that 'look there is 225T worth of real estate', so the global money supply shouldn't matter, however the reality is that: a) stocks pay dividends and their price has some correlation with their dividends and b) stocks need liquidity which comes from money, c) real estate can be used for various things, it is less risky and is market growing with global population and d) there is 245T of global debt makes anyone realize that something isn't right. The funny things is that part of the debt has negative yield and more is going to go negative. This means that Real estate and Bonds are in a much worse bubble that stocks actually are, but they could go much higher. As you can already see, unsound money from governments and Central banks is causing a tremendous misallocation of capital, it is destroying wealth and at the same time it is concentrating wealth to the hands of those that have already had massive wealth. It should be obvious to everyone that US stocks should had been worth much more than they were worth in 1971... or should they? Given that money is a zero sum game, if there wasn't new money being printed, then stocks shouldn't have really moved up or down much. Only really good investments would succeed and pay a dividend, while bad ones would quickly go away. Essentially the value of our money and investments would go up, without a 'special' number going up. There are many more factors playing a role in this, but overall stock markets going up 20-50-100x up is nonsense created by Central banks. Free and non-manipulated markets don't behave like that and don't do crazy things like have 10-20 years long bear markets during peaceful and prosperous times. What has made things a lot better and have prolonged the ability of Central banks to do these crazy things is the technological progress we've had over the last 50 years. Below I've put Nasdaq 100 expressed in Gold which is showing for how long the tech stock bull and bear markets really lasted in the US. To me it shows that there is a high chance that we are in the disbelief phase / 'this is a sucker's rally' phase. This fits nicely with the fact that most people are expecting a recession (and rightfully so), as most people get it wrong and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. In my opinion this new tech bull run is based on: a) the exponential progress in technology, b) the fact that the market came out of a vicious correction that lasted 12 years, c) gold being controlled by central banks d) gold is 'outdated' in a digital world and e) banning cash, full on negative rates, more money printing, f) a new digital banking system with Central banks creating digital, while they use that money to start buying stocks. However how large is that upside given the current macro picture? How long can the market stay irrational under the current awful global financial conditions? In my honest opinion the upside here is somewhat limited and the risk quite large. Until stocks many new ATHs I'd stay out of stocks, as we could be moving into a recession which could initially cause a drop in stocks. Don't forget that Central banks will try and fight the recession with everything they've got. Also don't forget that the US still remains the best place to put your money in. So in my opinion we will eventually see a prolonged period of stagflation or simply a period where stocks, bonds etc keep going up on a really unsound basis until everything breaks down. No idea when things start breaking down, but the one thing I am certain off is that I wouldn't want to hold much fiat. It is the first time that we are observing such a crazy period of currency wars with a quite a lot of changes on our monetary and payment systems. As I've mentioned before, USD, JPY, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and maybe some stocks (i.e US large tech stocks) are the only assets i'd touch.
TVC:SPXEducation
by BitcoinMacro
BRACE FOR IMPACT - BIG FLIGHTS TO SAFETYOf course I've been shouting about Gold and Cryptos before. Why? Why?... some people wanna know what's going on. (TURN UP volume on speakers. Microsoft updates caused a problem) I posted on the big de-dollarisation war that was happening in the background months ago. I was also looking at the 'war index' in Lockheed Martin. The smart money has already moved these markets. If you've missed, you're too late. It is a very unstable and uncertain world now. We have wars of various kinds: 1. Trade wars 2. Currency wars. 3. Cyber-wars. 4. And as of Thursday/Friday, America almost went to war with Iran. The dumb money is now long on the DJI. Yeah it might break out of 27000 but that's what the dumb money is gonna do. Last week we saw the German Bund market head into negative yield. This means that investors are willing to put their money in for an initial loss on bonds. Yield curves remain inverted in America. There is trouble ahead. Watch where the real big boys are heading. Get smart. Disclaimer: Nothing here is financial (or other advice). DYOR. This screencast is speculative. No liabilities accepted for your losses. In other words sue yourself if you take a position based on this post and lose your money.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
1
THE FOOLS RUSHED WHERE ANGELS FEARED TO TREAD!!Well, well - 'everybody' (except me), is rushing madly bullish on the DJI, as there is now a 99% expectation that the Federal Reserve is gonna make not one but three interest rate cuts over the next 18 months. This post is relevant to risk management and trading psychology . The hard evidence is that rate cuts in the similar economic circumstances are followed by recessions. Don't believe me. See it for yourself at the Federal Reserve ! For an annotated version see here . I can find no hard data that leads me to believe that the US Economy with its $22 Trillion exponentially rising debt , is healthy. There is nothing in the fundamental data that would account for the sort of charge north we saw in the last week. The leap north is simply about greed and hope, that the FED will save the markets - which is not their business. Central Banks in India and Australia have already cut interest rates. For India the markets went south in response, for complex reasons that may not relate to the DJI. The Aussies are indecisive at this point. Now we have Draghi in Europe contemplating rate cuts. A fresh round of money printing (aka quantitative easing) is likely to happen. Look, all this stuff is like paddling hard in a canoe against a tsunami. The IMF warned us about the approaching financial tsunami. Instead our leaders worsened the situation by protectionist trade measures. This is what people do: when your life is under threat, you panic and protect your own - instead of cooperating. So - nothing surprising. All the protectionism is a signal to me that something big is coming. Looking ahead, if a collapse happens (and I'm not predicting), I expect Gold, Platinum, and Cryptos to rocket north. For forex, I expect all /JPY pairs to head south. AUD and NZD pairs tend to move south but the correlation is far from perfect. DISCLAIMER : This educational post is speculative. Opinions expressed here are not intended as 'advice ' even if so construed. DYOR! Your decisions in the markets are your own. If you make decisions based on this post and you lose money, you are totally responsible for your losses.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
VWAP, Volume profile and pivots combined for day tradingAs annotated on the chart, weekly pivots combined with volume profile and VWAP bands can give high % entries. me On responsive days, VWAP bands give accurate points of entry for a move back to the current VWAP or POC. Be wise to the the of day that is developing, and use the appropriate strategy. For example on trend days do not play for responsive moves as you'll get run over. Neutral/balancing/normal days buy or sell out of value for a return to value using VWAP and pivots as a guide. Stops should be placed above or below pivots or the next VWAP band (2.5 or 3 SD). For further accuracy use the bigger picture- market and volume profile of the last few days.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by chrisatom
VWAP and volume profile combined with pivots for day tradingAs annotated on the chart, weekly pivots combined with volume profile and VWAP bands can give high % entries. On responsive days, VWAP bands give accurate points of entry for a move back to the current VWAP or POC. Be wise to the the of day that is developing, and use the appropriate strategy. For example on trend days do not play for responsive moves as you'll get run over. Neutral/balancing/normal days buy or sell out of value for a return to value using VWAP and pivots as a guide. Stops should be placed above or below pivots or the next VWAP band (2.5 or 3 SD). For further accuracy use the bigger picture- market and volume profile of the last few days.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by chrisatom
What will the Fed do next?This is my first post. I thought it would be interesting to see the Dow Jones index priced relative to the U.S. monetary base - and how the trend will change in the coming years. I normalized (1:1) the monetary base on December 2007, the officially recognized start of the Great Recession. Based on this rudimentary chart, it appears the Fed is near a tipping point. Their options appear to be (in order of likelihood, in my opinion) (1a) Sit back, do nothing, and hope the "China Trade Deal China Trade Deal China Trade Deal China Trade Deal China Trade Deal" optimism will continue to push the markets higher. Did I mention the China Trade Deal? (1b) Assuming 1a occurs, Fed could resume quantitative tightening or increase the federal funds rate by 0.25%. (2) If neither 1a/1b occur and DJI and other economic indicators remain stagnant, lower interest rates. (3) Lastly, renew the monetary policy of quantitative easing (QE5).
TVC:DJIEducation
by pnhalek