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Tim's Fundamental View LayoutHere is the way that I view any stock for an initial analysis to get an idea of what the market is valuing and viewing the company. I first look at the free cash flow, so that is directly under the price chart. Free cash flow is the life-blood of the company and can be used to pay dividends and to reinvest in the company to grow the top line or to buy back stock. Next I look at the PSR or Price-To-Sales-Ratio. This ratio is paramount for me since the top line shows up first for companies and is the starting point for analysis. Companies with low or no sales growth get priced very differently from companies with high growth. Start with sales growth in your analysis. There are many great books on the topic written by Kenneth L. Fisher, the creator of the tool. Next "Avg Basic Shares Outstanding" to see if the company is constantly diluting investors and raising capital or hiding expenses by giving out stock options each year. Old companies in slow growth industries tend to buy back stock and growth companies grow shares outstanding and is a strong headwind for investors. Next is "Long Term Debt"... which is another extremely important variable to look at with any company. In the long run, debt is the cheapest capital since you can pay it off cheaply but it can also drag down a company when the future is uncertain and unpredictable. Companies with predictable sales and growth often load up on debt which enhances returns for equity owners, but increases the risk long term. Jet Blue NASDAQ:JBLU is case in point for this as in 2000 before the pandemic it had a $5 billion market cap with $1 billion in debt and now it has over $8 billion in debt and the market cap is down to $1.5 billion. It is very difficult to get out from under such a heavy debt load. Debt can be "death" for any company if overused. Next is "Revenue" graphed annually. Essential to see if inflation impacts sales growth or if it can't keep up with inflation. The last 5 years was between 20%-50% inflation depending on the industry so if a company doesn't have higher revenues by at least 20% since 2019, then this reveals a weakness in their pricing power which is a very competitive market with likely declining or low margins. Last is "Market Cap". It is always good to know the market capitalization of any stock that you own. It is the foundation for understanding if any investor would ever want to buy the whole company and what would it cost to buy it and what are the "returns" from owning the whole company. I hope you can copy this layout for your own so you too can have a one-page view of the history of a company to help you get your mind around its valuation and potential along with understanding the risks all in one, easy picture.
NASDAQ:RIVNEducation
by timwest
21
Repaying the Italian debt in 40 years. The method. Hello, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an ambitious, innovative and potentially revolutionary idea for the management of the Italian public debt. A strategy that, in theory, could heal the enormous accumulated debt and bring Italy to a stronger and more stable financial position. Let's find out together how it could work. The basic idea Italy, with a public debt that amounts to about 2,900 billion euros, pays 70 billion euros in interest annually to its creditors. However, imagine an alternative scenario in which those 70 billion, instead of being paid for the payment of interest, are invested in index funds with an estimated average annual return of 10%. Furthermore, the profits generated would be reinvested annually. It is a solution that is based on the power of compound interest. From the second year, Italy would also have the 70 billion euros available annually no longer tied to the payment of interest. These funds could be used in strategic ways to support economic recovery. Agreements with creditors To make this proposal feasible, Italy would have to negotiate an agreement with creditors. The agreement would include a temporary suspension of interest payments, with the promise that the State will repay the entire debt within 40 years, also guaranteeing a compensatory interest of 10% as a "disturbance". This implies that creditors must accept a long-term vision, trusting in the profitability of investments and the ability of the Italian State to honor the final commitment. Simulation: how it could work If the 70 billion were invested from the first year in index funds with an average annual return of 10%, the capital would grow exponentially thanks to compound interest. Over 40 years, the investment would accumulate over 3,241 billion euros, a sum sufficient to repay the public debt of 2,900 billion and to provide a surplus to satisfy the extra interest promised to creditors. Meanwhile, from the second year, Italy would have at its disposal the 70 billion annually previously earmarked for interest payments. Over 40 years, this figure would represent a total of 2,800 billion euros, which could be used to: Strengthen strategic infrastructure in the transport, energy and digital sectors. Reduce the tax burden and encourage economic growth. Improve social services, such as healthcare, welfare and education. Further reduce the residual debt, strengthening the country's financial stability. Conclusion With this strategy, Italy would not only repay its public debt, but would also start an unprecedented phase of economic recovery. The combination of compound interest and the reallocation of freed funds represents an innovative vision to solve one of the main economic challenges of our time. However, the implementation of such an ambitious plan would require financial discipline, political stability and careful management of investments. Furthermore, it would be essential to negotiate a transparent and advantageous agreement with creditors, ensuring trust and credibility in international markets. Whether this is a utopia or a real opportunity will depend on the ability to imagine and adopt bold solutions for the good of the country.
MIL:EUROEducation
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
The Debt Ceiling AgreementThe debt ceiling is a limit set by the U.S. Congress on the amount of debt that the federal government can have outstanding. This debt is primarily made up of two components: debt held by the public (like U.S. Treasury bonds held by investors) and intragovernmental holdings (like those in the Social Security Trust Fund). From a financial perspective, the debt ceiling is significant for several reasons: 1. Creditworthiness of the United States: The U.S. government is seen worldwide as an issuer of risk-free assets, primarily because it has never defaulted on its debt. If the debt ceiling is not raised in time, it could potentially lead to a default, shaking the world's confidence in U.S. government securities. This could increase the interest rates that the U.S. has to pay to borrow money in the future. 2. Global Financial Markets Stability: U.S. Treasury securities are used as a benchmark for many other types of credit and are widely held by financial institutions around the world. A default could cause significant upheaval in these markets and potentially lead to a financial crisis. 3. Economic Recession : A default could lead to severe economic consequences. It could cause a sharp decrease in government spending (since the government couldn't borrow to finance its operations), which could in turn lead to job losses and potentially a recession. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of this risk in the case of the 2023 debt ceiling negotiations. 4. Budgeting and Planning: The debt ceiling also has implications for how the government budgets and plans its finances. When the debt ceiling is reached, the Treasury Department has to use "extraordinary measures" to keep the government funded, which can create uncertainty and inefficiency. 5. Political Tool: While not strictly a financial point, it's worth noting that the debt ceiling has often been used as a political tool. Lawmakers may refuse to increase the debt ceiling without certain concessions, such as spending cuts or policy changes. This can lead to financial uncertainty, as was the case during the 2023 debt ceiling negotiations. The negotiations that led to the agreement were marked by considerable compromise. President Biden, for instance, noted that the agreement represented a compromise where not everyone got what they wanted but was nonetheless an important step forward1. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, despite opposition within his own party, committed to passing the bill within 72 hours of its introduction on the House floor. This commitment was a testament to the urgency felt by lawmakers due to the looming threat of a potential default on the U.S. debt obligations. The agreement was a product of compromise and necessity, driven by the urgent need to avoid a default on U.S. debt obligations. It included a two-year budget deal holding spending flat for 2024 and imposing limits for 2025, effectively reducing spending as Republicans had insisted. This was in exchange for raising the debt limit for two years, until after the next election. The deal would boost spending on the military and veterans' care and cap spending for many discretionary domestic programs. However, the specifics of these spending caps remained subject to further debate between Republicans and Democrats. Conclusion The 2023 U.S. debt ceiling negotiations showcase the intricate dynamics of American politics and its intersection with economic policy. They underscore the importance of compromise in a divided government and the challenges that ideological divergences within parties can pose to such compromise. These negotiations and their outcome also highlight the potential economic implications, such as the risk of default, that can arise when political disagreements hinder prompt fiscal decisions.
FRED:GFDEGDQ188SEducation
by financialflagship
6
💵THE WORLD IN DEBT💵 ☑️The fact that the whole world is in massive Debt that can not be repaid is a buzzphrase that was around for like 20 years already. 20 years passed and nothing bad has happened, so what to worry about? In fact an entire political and economic movement called MMT or a modern monetary theory emerged claiming that government debt does not matter and that we can, you guessed it, print as much as we need(kinda) ☑️But the size of the debt itself was never really and issue so long as the government or a big company could service the debts. That is if their cashflow was positive enough to cover the interest payments on the debt. Now however, as the FED is raising rates, this is an issue. ☑️And its not the USA who’s pile of debt we need to be worried about(they are borrowing in the currency they can print themselves, remember?) but rather the rest of the world and the companies. The majority of developing countries don’t have the internal capital required for development, so they need to borrow on the international financial markets in Dollars. And these counties are now facing a perfect storm of a higher cost of new borrowings in Dollars, lower revenues from foreign trade due to recession(and yes we are in a recession, Wake up) and the massive energy and food costs due to the war in Ukraine and the problems caused by the supply chain crisis. ☑️Most big public companies aren’t doing great either. The share of listed companies with the debt servicing costs higher than the profits is now more than 25% and if we exclude the accounting and financial engineering shenanigans, it is save to say that this share is close to 30%. ☑️So the third of the economy is outright insolvent. Multiple countries will either default soon or will at least be plunge into civil and economic unrest and go the way of Sri-Lanka, Pakistan and others… And Jerome Powell said that he aint stopping and that the Fed funds rate should go up by at least 2 percentage points more. So instead of the collapse of the USA, we are likely to see a chain reaction debt crisis In the rest of the world unless the FED changes its mind… I Hope you guys learned something new today✅ Wish you all Best Of Luck👍 😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇 Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts? explanation
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
4
💵THE WORLD IN DEBT💵 ☑️The fact that the whole world is in massive Debt that can not be repaid is a buzzphrase that was around for like 20 years already. 20 years passed and nothing bad has happened, so what to worry about? In fact an entire political and economic movement called MMT or a modern monetary theory emerged claiming that government debt does not matter and that we can, you guessed it, print as much as we need(kinda) ☑️But the size of the debt itself was never really and issue so long as the government or a big company could service the debts. That is if their cashflow was positive enough to cover the interest payments on the debt. Now however, as the FED is raising rates, this is an issue. ☑️And its not the USA who’s pile of debt we need to be worried about(they are borrowing in the currency they can print themselves, remember?) but rather the rest of the world and the companies. The majority of developing countries don’t have the internal capital required for development, so they need to borrow on the international financial markets in Dollars. And these counties are now facing a perfect storm of a higher cost of new borrowings in Dollars, lower revenues from foreign trade due to recession(and yes we are in a recession, Wake up) and the massive energy and food costs due to the war in Ukraine and the problems caused by the supply chain crisis. ☑️Most big public companies aren’t doing great either. The share of listed companies with the debt servicing costs higher than the profits is now more than 25% and if we exclude the accounting and financial engineering shenanigans, it is save to say that this share is close to 30%. ☑️So the third of the economy is outright insolvent. Multiple countries will either default soon or will at least be plunge into civil and economic unrest and go the way of Sri-Lanka, Pakistan and others… And Jerome Powell said that he aint stopping and that the Fed funds rate should go up by at least 2 percentage points more. So instead of the collapse of the USA, we are likely to see a chain reaction debt crisis In the rest of the world unless the FED changes its mind… I Hope you guys learned something new today✅ Wish you all Best Of Luck👍 😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇 Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that?
Education
by ProSignalsFx
7
BASICS OF SAVING & INVESTMENT | RULES YOU SHOULD NEVER BREAK Debt and living on credit is a universal norm . While the "wisest" among us are trying to persuade themselves how they "hack" the system buying on credit card smartly, the richest among us keep following totally different commandments . You must remember that debt makes you dependent , it makes you submissive to the system. To become truly free and wealthy, here are the simple rules that will change your life if you follow them: 1 - Spend less than you make 2 - Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving 3 - Invest the rest in the industries that you understand 4 - Never borrow to invest 5 - Stop trying to get rich quick 6 - Never let your emotions intervene 7 - Patience pays The rules by themselves are very easy and straightforward, however, most of us are not disciplined enough to follow. Learn them, try them, practice them and one day you will become free! ❤️ Please, support my work with like and lovely comment !❤️ It truly helps! Thank you!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
18
The myth of hyperinflation series- #3. Fed's effectivenessHow effective are Fed's monetary policies and tools? Fed has three simple goals- Grow GDP, keep inflation rate steady and keep the unemployment rate low. Some argue that Fed's perceived power over the market was exposed during several occasions- #1. During the 2008 in the midst of sub-prime mortgage crisis, the market continued to plunge despite the Fed's efforts to bail out Fannie & Freddie and other financial institutions, implement the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and issue $800b stimulus package. The market finally stopped the bleeding in early March 2009. #2. When Fed ended the QE3 in 2014 by announcing its attention to raise the interest rate and slash the Fed balance sheet, many people believed market would crash. Instead, market shot up to ATH in 2015. #3. This year during the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, Fed started out by cutting the rate by half percentage to no avail. Afterwards, Fed intensified its intervention effort by reducing Fed fund rate to zero. Nonetheless, the market tanked another 15% before it hit the bottom. One can point to the Fed-induced booming housing market in early 2000 as the major factor for the fast economic recovery after the Dot.com bubble and uses it as the counter example. Market is driven by crowd sentiment, but crowd sentiment, which in turns, is partially driven by Fed's decision. It is a chicken and egg conundrum. They both influence each other, but the degree to which each influences one another is impossible to discern. The safe conclusion to draw is that it would be overly optimistic to rely on Fed to get us out of the next financial crisis unscathed as it will take more and more stimulus package to get the job done. The best it can do is to mitigate the severity of damage. Next, let's examine some of the conditions and criteria that are related to inflation.
FRED:GFDEBTNEducation
by Libratus
1
How to monetize the debt to finesse the law"The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt." - Ben Bernanke in 2009 while testifying before US congress. Those that did not believe this were called perma bears and fear mongering lunatics :) (Imagine being that gullible LOL!) Alot of the ones calling others perma bears and crazies are now saying they knew all along, or that no one could have seen this coming and that they were one of the earliest person to warn us. Pathetic dishonest sore losers. The saddest part is the Dunning-Kruger is so high they probably even believe it. Absolutely pathetic. What is monetizing the debt? And how is it finessing the law? First, some context. (If you don't want to wait I explain the process in this idea only screenshot below). In 1913 was passed the Federal Reserve Act, as described by congress of the time: "An Act to provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes" (Elastic means which can inflate to adapt to the country gdp - unlike Bitcoin - it does not mean hyperinflate thought) You might have heard of the panic of 1907, a financial crisis where the NYSE fell 50% from peak in 3 little weeks. Oh my it's hard to write about this without laughing. Long story short, bankers got greedy and then got rekt. From JPMorgan site "The crisis was global. The Bank of England sent $3 million in gold to Alexandria to stop the Egyptian Stock Exchange’s slide, only to find itself short of cash. Banks throughout Japan failed. French investors sold American stocks to buy gold to send home, badly depleting U.S. reserves." And then J. P. Morgan a rich banker, with his Rockefeller and Rothschild buddies bailed everyone out. The USA had no central bank since the Bank War of the 1830s, and alot of americans now felt the need of a central bank. So the FED got created, a private entity, private and separate from government to ensure a government couldn't print whatever they wanted. Fun fact during the 1929 crash, Morgan again (the bank, not the man he was dead by then) and his buddies were the ones to (try to) buy stocks to save the stock market. Along the decades the FED power has grown, after each crisis. The USA had alot as they are a country built on massive debt and on being the world reserve currency (and used to be the most promising emerging country due to size geography potential). In 2009 the FED for the first time monetized the debt, the chairman said it was not the case, which was a big fat obvious lie, and it was supposed to "not be that bad because temporary", but of course they never have been able to liquidate their assets, and all they did was postpone the problem and make a bigger, much bigger one. Now they are saying they are going to print with no restriction, and are going to be much more aggressive than previously, so we can totally expect tens of trillions, unless it's all bluff to encourage investors to buy? So, here we have it: This is it. Germany. Zimbabwe. The US government can now print as much money as they want via their little trick. Oh btw, US bonds are trash bonds, it's like 2005-2007 all over again. The only rating agency to downgrade treasury in the 2000s was SnP (other ones were criticized for not doing so), and guess what agency was the only one to get Punished by the government? Yup. So no one is downgrading government trash bonds now of course. They could be ranked Z it wouldn't matter anyway, the federal reserve is going to buy everything the government prints. The days of the us dollar as a world reserve currency are over if they continue in this direction. What kind of idiot would use the german mark as a safe haven? Money printer go brrrr.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
8
DEUTSCHE BOMB - Sorry I meant 'BANK'Some may not have heard of Deutsche Bank. Some may not know what 'systematic risk' is. Well, whether you heard of any of this before listen up. DB has been in serious trouble for years and in recent weeks there is more trouble. As the rules do not allow me to reference what I say here, people will need to Google some of this. Deutsche Bank has been over leveraged to the tune of Trillions. Then recently there has leveraging of the leveraging, to put that in a nutshell. Read up on level 3 assets in relation to Deutsche Bank. Germany's domestic economy relies heavily on Deutsche Bank. DB is totally wired into major banks globally. Share holder confidence in DB has been galloping south in recent weeks. Would you buy shares in DB? Some say when there's blood on the streets that's the best time to jump in. Sorry - some can go right ahead. I like my money in my pocket. Looking into the derivatives fiasco looming on DB the whole world is at risk! If DB falls watch out for shockwaves globally. Disclaimer: This educational post is not intended for trading or investing decision-making. No liabilities accepted.
NYSE:DBEducation
by Captain_Walker
1
The American dream is a nightmare - Trump cool aid running out.In this screencast I review briefly some headline issues that point to deep troubles affecting the American economy. I look at the Dow Transportation Index which appears to be leading Wall Street in a southward direction. My list of troubles for America is not exhaustive - so I may well have missed something of greater importance. Do share other facts if you know more. If others know of reasons for optimism on the US Economy I would be willing to learn more. So far, I've not been able to find anything of true substance to support optimism. This post is compliant with Tradingview's house rules on text-based posts.
Education
by Captain_Walker
5
Interest Rate Spikes Precede CorrectionsNotice the downward trend in the US10Y since the 80's, while government, corporate and consumer debt has exploded to all time highs. The achilles heel of massive debt levels are high interest rates, which end up causing slowed growth and economic contraction. With ever higher levels of debt, the level of interest required to put the economy in pain falls over time - thus why we see crashes and corrections even as the US10Y spikes to levels far below the historical average (~6.18%). Last year we popped above the "danger zone" trend line and we saw what happened. Watch out for interest rate spikes, it can save your ass.
SP:SPXEducation
by Derivati_Capital
3