Has the Bitcoin Market Become More Manipulated After ETFs? The long-awaited approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in late 2023 undoubtedly marked a turning point for the cryptocurrency. However, with this institutional influx, concerns regarding increased market manipulation have also surfaced. Let's delve into whether these concerns hold water and what the future might hold for Bitcoin's volatility.
Pre-ETF Era: A Wild West of Wash Trading
Market manipulation in Bitcoin wasn't exactly a new phenomenon before ETFs. Wash trading, a tactic where investors buy and sell the same asset repeatedly to inflate its trading volume, was a prevalent concern. This created an illusion of high demand, enticing others to invest and driving prices up artificially. Mark Cuban, a prominent crypto investor, even predicted wash trading as the "next possible implosion" for the industry in early 2023 .
The Double-Edged Sword of Institutional Investors
The arrival of big players with the ETF has undeniably brought more regulation and scrutiny to the market. This, in theory, should deter blatant manipulation tactics. However, the sheer volume these institutions trade with can also influence prices significantly. The question isn't whether they manipulate, but rather how their trading strategies might unintentionally impact market behavior.
A Glimpse into the Recent Controversy
A recent Wall Street Journal report alleging that Binance, a major cryptocurrency exchange, fired an investigator uncovering market manipulation by a VIP client reignited concerns . This incident highlights the potential conflicts that can arise when profit margins clash with regulatory compliance.
So, Has Manipulation Increased?
The answer is complex. While blatant wash trading might be less prevalent, the impact of institutional trading volume and potential conflicts within exchanges are new considerations. It's likely that the nature of manipulation has evolved, becoming more subtle and potentially harder to detect.
A Future of Stability or Stagnation?
The influx of institutional investors could indeed lead to a more stable Bitcoin market, mirroring traditional stock indices. This would be a far cry from the explosive, volatile growth Bitcoin has seen in the past. However, this stability might also come at the cost of reduced returns for investors hoping for another Bitcoin boom.
The Long Hodler's Perspective
As a large language model, I can't claim to be a "hodler" (long-term Bitcoin holder). However, historical data suggests that Bitcoin has weathered similar periods of regulation and scrutiny before. The key takeaway is that despite potential manipulation, Bitcoin's underlying technology and its core value proposition as a decentralized currency still hold significant appeal.
The Road Ahead
The future of Bitcoin manipulation hinges on two key factors:
1. Regulatory Strength: Stronger regulations with clear guidelines and robust enforcement mechanisms are crucial to deter future manipulation attempts.
2. Transparency on Exchanges: Exchanges need to be more transparent about their trading practices and address potential conflicts of interest.
Conclusion
Whether Bitcoin morphs into a stable, institutionalized asset or maintains its volatile character remains to be seen. However, the fight against manipulation, regardless of its form, will be critical in ensuring a fair and healthy Bitcoin market for all participants.
Etfs
The World of ETFsIn the vast landscape of investments, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) stand as a unique bridge, merging the best of both stocks and mutual funds. While traditional managed funds pool investors' money into assets managed by professionals, ETFs introduce a compelling twist, allowing for the flexibility of stock trading.
Unlike managed funds, ETFs are akin to stocks, enabling investors to buy and sell them at any time during market hours . This accessibility aligns ETFs more closely with the dynamic nature of stocks, catering to the on-demand needs of modern investors.
However, just like any investment, ETFs come with their nuances and risks. Diversification, often touted as an investment safety net, does mitigate some risks but can't fully shield against market volatility.
Different ETFs carry varying levels of risk, making understanding these distinctions vital before investing. Additionally, the past performance of ETFs isn't always a reliable indicator of future results, underlining the importance of comprehensive research and sound decision-making.
Bitcoin ETFs: The Gateway to Crypto Investments
In recent years, the advent of Bitcoin ETFs has added an intriguing chapter to the investment narrative. These financial instruments enable investors to engage with Bitcoin's price movements without directly owning the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin ETFs, traded on conventional stock exchanges, provide an accessible avenue for traditional investors to venture into the crypto sphere.
Within the realm of Bitcoin ETFs, there are two primary types: spot and futures-based ETFs:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs offer direct exposure to Bitcoin's real-time market price, involving the actual cryptocurrency.
On the other hand, futures-based ETFs utilize Bitcoin futures contracts, enabling speculation on the asset's future price without owning the underlying asset.
The interest in Bitcoin ETFs can be attributed to several factors. First and foremost, they offer unparalleled ease of access. Trading on mainstream stock exchanges simplifies the process, allowing investors to leverage existing brokerage accounts without delving into the complexities of crypto exchanges.
Moreover, the regulatory oversight accompanying ETFs adds a layer of security, easing concerns related to fraud and market manipulation prevalent in unregulated crypto markets.
Additionally, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs signifies a significant shift, indicating the integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial systems.
While the United States has yet to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, several Bitcoin futures-linked ETFs have gained regulatory approval , broadening investment horizons.
Beyond Bitcoin: Exploring the Crypto ETF Spectrum
While Bitcoin has seized the spotlight, the crypto ETF landscape is not confined to it alone. Outside the United States, various Cryptocurrency Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) encompass a spectrum of digital assets beyond Bitcoin. These offerings enable diversification within the digital asset space, catering to investors keen on exploring a range of cryptocurrencies.
In the United States, ETFs linked to cryptocurrencies like Ether also exist, albeit in the futures-related domain. Although spot-based crypto ETFs are yet to make their debut, the evolving regulatory landscape and market demand may pave the way for these in the future.
As the financial world continues its digital transformation, understanding ETFs and their crypto counterparts becomes paramount. By bridging the gap between traditional stocks and the dynamic crypto sphere, ETFs empower investors with newfound opportunities and avenues for portfolio growth.
Stay tuned for the evolving of crypto ETFs, where the world of investments meets the future of finance.
A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - PART IThis is a simple example of how anyone can attempt to understand price action, trade setups, and determine if the current trade setup is valid for any trading action.
Unless you have a trading system that helps you identify highly successful trade setups, most people struggle to find opportunities before they turn into breakout trends (up or down). Ideally, most traders want to get into trades before the big breakout, or breakdown, happens.
This video, part I of an extended series, will help you learn to use simple tools to identify qualified trade setups from invalid setups.
You can trade whatever you want. But remember, the trend is your friend, and learning to understand price theory, trends, channels, and support/resistance is all you need to make better decisions.
Watch this video to see if it helps you. Over the next few weeks, I'll create more videos highlighting simple techniques to help you become a better trader. I'll review dozens of charts and highlight what works and what doesn't.
Trading is a matter of managing risks while attempting to generate profits. This will be a great way for me to share my thoughts with all of you while trying to help you learn techniques to help you build solid skills.
Hope you enjoy this first video.
A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - IIIMore examples of trade setups and how I use my custom algos to help identify stronger trade opportunities from other symbols.
In this example, near the end of this video, I review the QLD chart (Daily) which provides a very clear example of major trend vs. intermediate trend. It is very important trader learn to see these opportunities from all aspects.
Please pay very close attention to the details I'm sharing related to trading concepts and theory. I'm trying to teach all of you to see charts in a different way. See PRICE as the driver of trends, and counter-trends, as Fibonacci Price Theory describes.
Basic Rules of Fibonacci Price Theory:
1. Price is ALWAYS seeking new highs or new lows - ALWAYS.
2. Failure to establish a new high means price will attempt to retest/break recent/new lows.
3. Ultimate HIGH/LOW levels are critical to understanding major trends vs. intermediate trends.
4. If you have trouble identifying a clear trend on a Daily chart, try Weekly or 240 min as an alternative.
5. If you still can't identify trend clearly, wait it out. Price will ALWAYS attempt to make new highs/lows. Sometimes, you have to be patient and wait for consolidation trends to work themselves out.
My objective is to show you how I look at charts and identify trade opportunities. Simply put, I just trying to help you see and understand simple TA theories and to help you learn to identify great trade opportunities.
Hope you enjoy.
Factor Investing: An IntroductionThe concept of factor investing has garnered significant attention in recent years as an innovative approach to portfolio management. The idea behind factor investing is that it seeks to uncover the primary sources of return in investment portfolios, and to explicitly target these sources, known as factors. By systematically identifying and targeting these factors, investors can achieve improved portfolio diversification, risk management, and potentially, enhanced returns.
Factor investing can be traced back to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) introduced by Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965). The CAPM was a groundbreaking theory that posited that a security's expected return is directly related to its level of systematic risk, measured by the beta coefficient. The concept of beta provided an early example of a factor in investing.
In recent years, factor investing has evolved and expanded considerably. Researchers and investment managers have identified numerous factors that drive investment performance, such as quality, low volatility, and liquidity.
Primary Factors in Investing
Market : The market factor represents the overall market return and is the core factor that drives investment performance. The market factor, or beta, is the exposure of an asset to the general movement of the market.
Size : Size is the factor that focuses on the market capitalization of companies. Small-cap stocks typically offer higher potential returns than large-cap stocks, although they also tend to exhibit higher volatility.
Value : Value investing targets stocks that are considered undervalued relative to their intrinsic value. Value stocks generally have low price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and price-to-cash-flow ratios, and they tend to outperform growth stocks over time.
Momentum : The momentum factor captures the tendency of stocks that have recently outperformed to continue to do so. Momentum investing strategies aim to capture this trend by buying recent winners and selling recent losers.
Quality : Quality is a factor that focuses on financially stable and well-managed companies. Quality stocks typically have high profitability, low leverage, and stable earnings growth.
Low Volatility : Low volatility investing aims to identify stocks that have exhibited low price volatility over time. Low-volatility stocks often deliver better risk-adjusted returns than high-volatility stocks
Benefits of Factor Investing
Factor investing offers several benefits to investors, such as:
Improved diversification : By targeting specific factors, investors can diversify their portfolios across various sources of return and risk, thereby reducing overall portfolio risk.
Enhanced risk management : Factor investing enables investors to better understand the underlying risks in their portfolios and to manage those risks more effectively.
Potential for outperformance : By systematically targeting well-established and robust factors, investors may achieve higher returns than traditional market-cap-weighted indexes.
Cost efficiency : Factor investing strategies are often implemented using rules-based approaches, such as smart-beta or quantitative strategies, which can be more cost-effective than traditional active management.
Transparency : Factor investing strategies are typically more transparent than traditional active management, as they rely on well-defined, rules-based methodologies that are easier for investors to understand and monitor.
Potential Risks of Factor Investing
While factor investing offers many benefits, it is important to be aware of the potential risks associated with this approach:
Factor timing : Just like market timing, attempting to time factor exposures can be difficult and often leads to underperformance. Investors should be cautious about trying to predict when a particular factor will outperform or underperform.
Overfitting : The process of identifying factors can be susceptible to overfitting, where a model is tailored too closely to historical data and may not perform well in the future.
Crowding : As more investors adopt factor investing strategies, the potential for crowding in certain factors may increase, leading to diminishing returns or increased risk.
Model risk : The effectiveness of factor investing strategies relies on the accuracy and stability of the underlying factor models. If the models are not robust or if they become less effective over time, the strategy's performance may suffer.
Diversification risk : While targeting specific factors can help diversify a portfolio, it may also expose investors to concentrated risk if those factors underperform or experience periods of heightened volatility.
Factor investing has revolutionized the way investors approach portfolio management, offering improved diversification, enhanced risk management, and the potential for outperformance. By identifying and targeting the primary drivers of investment performance, factor investing provides a systematic and transparent framework for constructing and managing portfolios.
Trade with care.
If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
Learning to stay ahead of market trends - 2023 & BeyondFollow my research. Learn why I expect 2023 to be a very difficult year for active traders and how you can avoid all the risks by modifying your capital allocation levels RIGHT NOW.
You don't have to stand in front of a freight train or try to force trades when they are not opportunistic. You could just wait for the better setup in July/Aug 2023 and ride out Wave-3.
Do you want to gain profits or just try to gamble your capital away?
Sure, if you are a day trader, you may be able to trade some of the bigger price swings over the next 5+ months. But, most of the price action is going to be in ETFs and select US stock sectors.
Learn to position your trades to capitalize when opportunities are the RICHEST for success. Wave-1 has nearly ended. You are trying to catch the last 5% to 7%+ of an uptrend before the US markets will slide into a Wave-2 correction.
Are you sure you want to risk a boatload of capital at the end of Wave-1 right now?
Knowing when to trade is important. Knowing when NOT to trade is even more important.
Make sure you are getting reliable information, content, and research.
Trading is not about trying to be the next zero-Billionaire in 25 days - it is about surviving and growing your accounts over the next 5 to 10+ year efficiently.
Follow my research.
consumers starting to spend less money againin times where this is above 2 consumer defensive is winning out, and in times where this is below 2 consumers are spending more money and buying consumer discretionary goos/services. recently this chart peaked, and now weve retraced and it is reversing again. probably going to set a lower weekly high, but qqe is long and sss is green so the defensive funds are probably the best bet in terms of consumer goods.
How to manage Capital in an Economic DownturnThe Great Recession is not the first time that the economy has experienced downturn or recession. The last one occurred during the early 1980s, and it caused unemployment to spike and home prices to drop. However, that doesn’t mean that a similar situation cannot happen again. The effects of a recession have lasting implications for consumers and businesses. When consumers have less money to spend on goods and services, businesses must make adjustments in order to remain profitable. In fact, recessions can lead to innovation in industries like technology where creative minds come up with cheaper solutions for everyday problems. Here’s a look at how consumers are affected by recessions, what they’re doing about it, as well as how you can manage your money in these challenging times.
What Happens When the Economy Recovers?
When the economy recovers from a recession, there are typically two ways that consumers spend their money. One way is that consumers continue to spend on the same products and services that they bought before the recession. The other spending trend that occurs during a recovery is that consumers change the products and services that they spend money on. The reason for this change in spending habits is that consumers have changed their priorities during the recession. When a recession has caused consumers to have less disposable income, they tend to make their money go further. When consumers have less disposable income, they can no longer afford to spend money on certain products and services.
The Impact of a Recession on Consumers
A recession can have a lasting impact on consumers. Consumers who experience a recession tend to have less confidence in their ability to manage their money. This can cause lasting damage to their credit scores as they seek out lower interest loans or take out a repayment plan. A recession can also impact a consumer’s career and ability to earn a living wage. When a recession occurs, businesses have to make changes to remain profitable. This might include laying off employees or reducing the hours that part-time workers are scheduled for. A recession can impact consumers’ ability to buy a home as well. Mortgage rates tend to be higher during a recession as investors seek out higher returns because of the increased risk of default.
Consumer Responses During a Recession
When a recession occurs, consumers are likely to make changes to their spending habits in order to save money. The first thing that consumers are likely to do is reduce discretionary spending. Discretionary spending is the money that is spent on entertainment activities, eating out at restaurants, shopping for luxury items, and on travel. Another common response of consumers during a recession is to change how they get their services. When a recession occurs, consumers are likely to change how they get their banking, insurance , and healthcare services as well as how they pay their bills.
How Consumers Can Manage Their Money in a Recession
The best way for consumers to manage their money during a recession is to make a budget. A budget for spending should include all of the money that goes out of your bank account each month as well as how much money comes into your account. When making a budget, it is important to consider your expenses and income to see if there is any room in your budget to make changes. This can include looking at your monthly expenses and trying to reduce the amount that you spend on certain items. When you are making a budget, it is important to keep in mind that you will have to change it as time goes on. As your income changes, you may have more or less money available to spend each month. Likewise, you may also have more or less expenses to pay each month.
Investing in the Stock Market: The stock market is one of the riskiest investments you can make. It’s also one of the most profitable when things go right. The stock market has its ups and downs, but it always rebounds in the long run. Even during a recession, savvy investors know how to make money in the stock market by investing in stocks and other types of securities. Investing in the stock market may seem intimidating at first, but it’s not as complicated as you think! In this Educational article, we’ll show you how to invest in the stock market if you have less than $5,000 to invest. With these tips and tricks to invest in a recession, you’ll be on your way to becoming a successful investor with an impressive portfolio sooner than you think!
How to invest in the stock market with $5,000
Before you dive head first into the stock market, it’s important to know how much you have to invest. While the stock market can be rewarding, it’s also one of the riskiest investments you can make. Investing in the stock market is all about risk and reward — the more risk you take, the bigger your reward can be. Investing in the stock market requires at least $5,000 in order to diversify your portfolio. Diversification is key to long-term success in the stock market. Rather than putting all of your eggs in one basket, diversification allows you to spread your funds across many different investments.
Diversification is key
When you’re investing in the stock market, it’s important to diversify your portfolio. Diversification allows you to spread your funds across many different investments for two reasons: risk reduction and opportunity enhancement. Risk reduction is accomplished by not putting all of your funds into one investment. Instead, you’re spreading the funds across different types of investments. Opportunity enhancement allows you to take advantage of different types of growth opportunities.
Understand why you’re investing
Before you invest in the stock market, it’s important to understand why you’re investing in the first place. If you’re investing for growth, you’re looking for stocks that are currently undervalued to increase in value over time. If you’re investing for income, you’re looking for stocks that pay dividends.
Take advantage of no-fee investments
When you invest in the stock market, you pay fees for the management of your portfolio. Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are mutual funds that are pre-packaged and purchased as a single unit. Mutual funds are professionally managed funds that are offered by financial institutions, whereas ETFs are professionally managed funds that are traded on a stock exchange. If you’re investing a small amount of money in the stock market, you’re better off choosing mutual funds or ETFs that have no or low management fees. Mutual funds and ETFs with no or low management fees are often referred to as no-load funds.
Shorting ETFs can be profitable (This strategy is best suitable for Professional Traders)
Shorting ETFs can be profitable if you’re investing a large amount of money in the stock market. Shorting ETFs allows you to profit from a declining market. Shorting ETFs is a very risky investment strategy and is not recommended for beginners. If you’re interested in shorting ETFs, be sure to talk to a financial advisor before making any investments.
Additional Note: When the global economy is on the verge of recession, investors are scared and their first thought is to run towards things that are safe. In recent years, markets have grown to distrust risky investments such as stocks and other volatile assets. When the global economy is about to go into recession, commodities like gold and oil usually become hot properties for investors wanting to preserve their capital. There are a number of asset classes that thrive during a recession: real estate, bonds, and value stocks—or anything with a low correlation to the stock market. However, at the same time there are also some that suffer: high-beta stocks; growth stocks; growth real estate; luxury goods; emerging market equities; and anything else with a high correlation to the stock market. In our next article we will analyze Gold and Silver as an hedge against inflation and their performance in an economic downturn.
Conclusion
The recession that took place in the early 2000s is a great example of how a recession can change the way consumers spend their money. During this recession, consumers were likely to spend more money on food and clothing since those were necessities that consumers could not do without. When the next recession occurs, consumers may change their spending habits once again. However, it is important to remember that a recession is a natural part of the business cycle. It is likely that consumers will continue to spend their money in the future even in the face of a recession. Investing in the stock market is a smart way to diversify your investment portfolio. It’s also a great way to earn passive income through dividends. The best way to invest in the stock market if you have less than $5,000 to invest is through mutual funds or ETFs with no or low management fees. Shorting ETFs can also be a great way to make money in a recession if you have a large amount of funds to invest.
Even though the technical definition of a recession has been changed/modified it is important to know that unemployment rate determines the condition of a recession.
The Safest Way to Short The Stock MarketIn this video we explain Inverse ETFs as a tool to gain short exposure to the stock market. These can be used as a tool to profit directly from market or as a hedge to protect your stock portfolio in times of market volatility.
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! Have you ever invested using one of these ETFs?
Price Channel Trading StrategyCharacteristics:
Channels are banded current trend-following indicators.
Similar to other indicators they lagging.
They have an upper and a lower line.
Upper and lower bands are at equal distance from a middle line.
The area between the upper and lower lines in the channel.
Signals:
The upper or lower line breakouts.
The upper and lower lines bounce backs.
Channels can be seen in trendy or sideways markets.
Different types of channels will be discussed in other videos like:
Donchain Channels
Keltner Channels
Fibonacci channels
.
.
Investing or Trading?Hi, Im Riley...and in this article I want to discuss the topic of investing vs trading. A lot of people reading this probably are already leaning towards trading over investing. In this brief educational article, I want to share some key knowledge that I've been withholding from the Tradingview community ever since I started publishing indicators on this website.
What is this knowledge? In one word: ETFs. I discovered trading at a very young age (18)...and when I did, I was truly astounded at the technical analysis side of it. Now I'm 20 years old, and after 2 years of intense studying of trading the finanical markets...I've come to the conclusion that investing is an equally effective if not better alternative than trading. Specically, investing in ETFs.
To this date, I haven't actually traded yet...(cause I still live with my parents lol, and brokers generally want proof you live on your own before you start trading)... but I have lots of knowledge through reading hundreds of trading articles online, watching hundreds of trading videos, and creating indicators for the TV community over the past 2 yrs. So now that I've established my reputation, lets talk about ETFs and why they're so good...
ETFs...Exchange Traded Funds. What are they? An ETF is essentially a collection of stocks all compiled into one security that you (the investor) can buy at an affordable price. Take for example the S&P500 ETF , "SPY", probably the most well known ETF . It consists of 500 US stocks. Currently it costs $434 per unit (as I'm writing this article). That means you can buy this ETF for under $500 and get exposure to 500 different stocks. Effectively, you are diversifying your risk because now you have limited exposure to any individual stock within that 500 stock portfolio. You have effectively bought the stock market!
ETFs incur low commission fees...Why? because you only have to buy it once and hold on to it for the rest of your life until you decide to retire. Generally, they are also a much safer way of making profits in the finanical markets than trading. Whats so awesome about ETF investing is that the stock market as a whole is very predictable in the long run...it always goes up! Thats what ETF investing takes advantage of...long term and predictable gains.
I've done a lot of research on my own into different forms of trading...CFDs & futures trading, stock trading, and option trading. And something I want to note is that no matter how you slice or dice it, now matter how much you can argue trading is superior to investing, one thing is for sure: trading involves LOTS of work and time spent everyday...something that investing bypasses. Plus, trading can be an emotional rollercoaster. So if your a lazy guy like me whos come to the realization that the effort spent in trading is A LOT and probably not worth it for the extra gains...than ETF investing might be a better choice for you.
Please like, comment, share, and follow me! Good luck :)
3x ETF SOXL vs other 1x semi ETFs over various time horizonsI compare SOXL returns with SOXX, SMH, and PSI, all ETFs in the semiconductor space.
CONCLUSIONS AND FINDINGS:
YTD 2021 SOXL has not provided any net benefit over it's peers. And if you use stop loss orders you've probably lost money on it due to its extreme volatility. Smaller quant ETF fund PSI is the better performer on most/all time horizons YTD or more recent, especially from a risk/reward perspective. Only when comparing SOXL against the others on a time horizon of 1 yr or longer does SOXL outperform it's peers.
Importantly however, charts mimic real life only to the extent we make the purchase the entire position at once and don't touch it over the entire time frame. But this is not what most traders do. Thus, I recommend holding SOXL only if you're going to buy it and not set any stop loss orders, touch it, trade it, or even look at it for a year or more. But you probably can't handle that. I can't either. Thus the better, more realistic strategy for most traders is to get PSI or one of the other primary ETFs covering this space.
The essential features of ETF’s In this article, we’ll go over some fundamental concepts about exchange-traded funds (ETF’s) .
To comprehend what an ETF is and what its qualities are, we must first provide a brief overview of mutual funds.
A mutual fund is an investment company that pools money from investors to buy a variety of stocks, bonds, and other securities on their behalf.
A portfolio is a collection of the underlying constituents. The firms that create these mutual funds assign a manager to oversee the investments. The basic concept is to give smaller amounts of capital easy access to diversification through a single purchase. An investor purchases a piece of a portfolio of his choosing. From the perspective of an investor, the mutual fund is easy. They essentially submit the investment to the mutual fund corporation. If they use a brokerage account, they will see shares of the mutual fund appear in their account, or they will receive a statement directly from the firm revealing their fund position.
The ETF's are a type of mutual fund that incorporates a number of more contemporary features. The first ETF listed on the New York stock exchange (NYSE) in 1993 was created to track the S&P 500 index.
An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a pooled investment vehicle that is listed on a stock exchange, allowing investors to buy and sell its shares at a market-determined price during the trading day. They follow the same rules as any publicly traded stock, and they offer transparency and a central hub for all of their underlying asset classes. ETFs can be used to monitor the performance of an underlying index, commodity, or portfolio of assets. If you want to track a particular index, you don't have to buy shares in any of the companies that make up the index.
Let’s look at the characteristics of this product structure and why it is taking the investment world by storm. The main ones are:
1. Transparency
2. Exchange listing
3. Tax efficiency
4. Lower fees
5. Diversity
Transparency
All investors benefit from portfolio transparency because it protects them from risk. An investor must recognize that no other fund product on the market gives a daily accounting of the fund's holdings like the ETF. Portfolio holdings were traditionally only published quarterly or semiannually. ETFs make their portfolios available to the public on a daily basis.
Exchange listing
There are three major benefits of exchanging listing:
Standardization
Intraday trading
Liquidity
Standardization is a huge benefit for holding the same multi-asset portfolios all within the same account structure. Instead of having two separate parts of your portfolio with associated problems, you can now keep your bond position wrapped in an ETF structure within your investment account. You can also include your commodity piece as well as your alternate options.
Intraday trading has been a feature that has proven to be both beneficial and detrimental
Liquidity - Listing a product on an exchange and introducing it to a broader range of market participants in a standardized format will increase liquidity and reduce spreads beyond what was previously available. In the market, you can often see instances where the ETF price is trading between the underlying basket's "bid" and "ask" spread. The ability to access liquidity within the bid and ask of the underlying assets is a benefit that mutual fund portfolio managers and investors do not have.
Tax efficiency
The major tax advantage of the ETF structure within the portfolio management process derives from the concept of in-kind “creation” and “redemption.” The process is complicated and it has to do with the daily operations of the ETF in the primary and secondary market versus the ones of a mutual fund.
Lower fees
The introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to the market has resulted in a large reduction in the fees that investors must pay in order to obtain a wide range of easy-to-manage exposures as building blocks for a portfolio. This is important for investors because it allows them to keep their positions without worrying about gains being distributed to other investors who are buying and leaving the ETF, as is the case with mutual funds.
Diversity
The thousands of exchange-traded funds presently available offer a wide range of exposures. Investors can choose from a wide range of ETFs to achieve their desired exposure. This could include anything from main indices to overseas fixed income, leveraged commodity bets, and everything in between. Traditional benchmarks are also evolving as a result of ETFs. ETFs are no longer bound by conventional index schemes. The industry has developed to question how each index is built and what benefit it provides to investors.
Trade with care.
If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like , comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
Sector Rotation March 2021Recent market sector rotation coming out of the COVID crash has confirmed Sector Rotation theory. I made this video to give viewers a brief introduction to the theory and provide some actionable investing ideas based on what Sector Rotation suggests will be the next stocks to potentially outperform.
Sector Rotation theory suggests that from market bottoms the two sectors that should lead are Consumer Discretionary and Technology. These two sectors did in fact lead the market out of the COVID crash. The next sectors to lead as the market matures are Industrials and Materials. These too followed the theory through 2020 as the bull market grew. At the market top Energy is supposed to lead and sure enough we have seen quite the run on Energy related stocks. What that means going forward if the theory holds is that Consumer Staples and Healthcare should outperform the market.
HOW TO BUY & SELL GOLD : Part1🏅 CFDS VS ETFS 🏅
➡️ GOLD ETFS (Right Chart)
ETFS PHYSICAL GOLD (ASX:GOLD) offers low-cost access to physical gold via the stock exchange and avoids the need for investors to personally store their own bullion.
Each GOLD unit comes with an entitlement to an amount of "physical bullion". This means : Real Gold, Real Bars.
⬅️ GOLD CFDS (Left Chart)
CFDs on GOLD US$/OZ (TVC:GOLD) (OANDA:XAUUSD)
CFD stands for Contracts for Difference, with the difference being between where you enter a trade and where you exit. Simply put, when the position is closed, you’ll receive the profit or incur the loss on that difference. When you trade a CFD you’re speculating on the movement of the price only, rather than traditional stocks where you purchase a physical asset. You do not ever own any real gold bars.
🤓 CFD TRADE EXAMPLE
The price of gold is measured by its weight. Therefore, the price shows how much it costs for one ounce of gold in US dollars. For example, if the gold (XAUUSD) price is $1600.00, it means an ounce of gold is traded at US$1600.00. Similarly, the price of silver is its price per ounce in USD. If the silver (XAGUSD) price is 28.00, it means that an ounce of silver is traded at US$28.00.
If you have bought gold for $1600, you do not have an ounce of gold that you can hold, but you rather have the obligation to buy XAU at US$1600. When you close your position, you sell the XAU and close your exposure. If you sell it for $1605.00, you have made profit of $5 for every ounce (unit) of gold in your contract. The same concept applies to silver trading. If you have bought silver (XAGUSD) for $28.00 and sell at $28.50, you would have made a profit of $0.50 for every ounce of silver in your contract.
🤔 WHY TRADE CFDS?
If you’re looking to invest in the price movements of instruments, rather than purchasing physical assets
To take advantage of swift fluctuations in the underlying instrument or security. This is popular with short-term investors looking to profit from intra-day and overnight movements in the market
To take advantage of leverage and spread capital across a range of different instruments rather than tie it up in a single investment (note: this approach can increase risk)
As a risk management tool to hedge exposure
Understanding ETFsHello traders, in this post I will explain different types of ETFs and what is an ETF (Exchange-Traded Funds).
ETF for example is a package of different stocks that have similar characteristics. One characteristic could be that they all are in the same sector. Some ETFs track indexes, commodities, and more. Those packages are listed on an exchange and are traded just like stocks.
Traders and investors use ETFs to diversify with the provided indexes (or other products) with lower costs, or if the trader can’t trade in futures contracts, it is possible to use ETFs that are related to a specific future. Also, there are options on ETFs that can be used as an alternative for expensive indexes.
Leveraged ETFs
Most of the ETFs are trading in a 1:1 ratio, for example, NASDAQ 100 is currently at $12621 and the relevant ETF QQQ is $307.8, the difference is 1 to 40, but the returns are the same (1:1).
The ETF NUGT on the other hand is moving with correlation to the gold miners index, but if the index return will be 10%, the ETF NUGT return will be 20%, because it is leveraged 2 to 1.
Those kinds of ETFs are not for investors or long-term traders, only for the short term. This is because the returns are multiplied by 2. If the index will move down 7% NUGT will move down 14%. Eventually, it will move substantially lower in price because there will be a major correction of 30%+ that will cause a 60%+ drop in price. Thus, there will be a split.
If you look at September 2012 you can see that NUGT price is $36000, this is because there were many splits due to the phenomenon I described above. NUGT was never really traded at $36000.
In the chart, the orange line NUGT. Moving 300% between March to August, the blue line GOLD 40%.
Reverse ETFs
ETFs that move in the opposite direction to the index.
For example, DUST is a leveraged ETF and going in the opposite direction to the gold miners index.
In the chart, the green line DUST. Decreasing substantial percents due to leverage.
ETFs that based on Futures
There are two types:
ETFs that own the commodity – those ETFs are moving almost the same as the commodity itself. For example GLD
In the chart above, the blue line is the GOLD price in cash, the red line is GLD.
ETFs that buy the futures of the commodity and not the physical commodity, don’t track the commodity with the same returns as the previous type, for example, VXX (VIX), USO (oil), UNG (gas).
As discussed in the previous post Futures have a time premium. When you buy ETF that is based on futures, that means that you buy also the premium attached to that future. As time passes, that premium is lost, and then the ETF buys the next contract with a new time premium. As time will pass, you will lose this premium also… and so forth… This is something to be aware of.
A simple flow indicatorAn alternative way of assessing currency flow is the ratio between the ETFs of each currency. For example, the EZU that gives exposure to a developed market countries using the Euro currency, divided by IVV that gives exposure to large, established U.S. companies.
The direction of this ratio shows us whether companies in one country (or region) are growing faster than the other. The greater the growth of companies, the greater the country growth and productivity, which creates a virtuous cycle and currency appreciation.
Two alternatives to trade $VIXVIX Alternatives:
The chart shows two investable alternatives to trade the $VIX, these assets are $TVIX and $VXX.
How to Succeed in Trading (by Really, Really Trying)This was a recent post from a great trader and longtime colleague Jay Kaeppel
Sometimes it’s good to go back to the basics. So here goes.
Trading success comes from a “reality based” approach. It is NOT about “all the money I am going to make!” It IS about “formulating a plan” (see the questions below) AND “doing the right thing over and over and over again” (no matter how uncomfortable or unsexy those “things” may be).
Steps to Trading Success
Trading success comes from:
A) Having answers to the questions below
B) Remembering the answers through all of the inevitable ups and downs
What vehicles will you trade?
Will it be stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, futures, options, or something else? If you plan to trade futures or options understand that you will need a different account and/or approval from your brokerage firm. Likewise, note that you will need to learn about the unique quirks of futures and options BEFORE you start trading.
How much money will you commit to your trading account?
Whatever that amount is be sure to put the entire amount into your account. DO NOT make the mistake of saying “I only have x$’s but I am going to trade it as if it were y$’s. One good drawdown and you will pull the plug.
How much money will you commit to a single trade/position?
We are NOT talking here about how much of a loss you are willing to endure. We are simply talking about how much you will omit to the enter the trade. If you put 10% of your capital into a given stock or ETF that doesn’t mean you are going to risk the entire amount. This question has more to do with determining how diversified you will be.
How much money will you risk on a given trade/position?
Think in terms of percentages. I will risk 1%, 2%, 5%, 10%, whatever. There is no magic, or correct, number. But think of it this way – “if I experience 5 consecutive losing trades how much will my account be down?” If you can’t handle that number then you need to reduce your risk per trade.
How many different positions will I hold at one time? What is my maximum?
Buying and holding a portfolio stocks is different than actively trading. For active traders, holding a lot of positions at one time can be taxing – much more so than you might expect going in. Don’t learn this lesson the hard way.
Do you understand the mechanics of entering trading orders?
The vast majority of trading orders are placed on-line. Each brokerage firm has their own websites/platforms and each has their unique characteristics. “Paper trading” an be a disaster if you come away thinking you “have the touch” when it comes to making money. However, when it comes to learning the in’s and out’s of order placement BEFORE you actually start trading, it an be invaluable.
(Think of trading as sky diving and paper trading as watching virtual sky diving on your laptop. You get the idea, but the actual experience is significantly different).
What will cause me to enter a trade?
There are roughly a bazillion and one ways to trigger a “buy signal”. Some are great, some are awful, but the majority are somewhere sort of in the middle. Too many traders spend too much time looking for “that one great method”: of triggering signals. The truth is that if you allocate capital wisely, manage your risk (more to follow) the actual method you use to signal trades is just one more piece of the puzzle – NOT the be all, end all.
How will I enter a trade?
This sounds like the same question as the one above, but it is different. For an active trader, a buy signal may occur but he or she may wait for “the right time” to actually enter the market. For example, if an “oversold” indicator triggers a “buy” signal, a trader may wait until there is some sort of price confirmation (i.e., a high above the previous trading day, a close above a given moving average, etc.) rather than risking “trying to catch a falling safe.”
What will cause me to exit a trade with a loss?
The obvious one is a loss that reaches the maximum amount you are willing to risk per trade as established earlier. But there can be other factors. In some cases, if the criteria that caused you to enter the trade in the first place no longer is valid, it can make sense to “pull the plug” and move on to another opportunity. A simple example: you buy because price moves above a given moving average. Price then drops back below that moving average without reaching your “maximum loss” threshold.
What will cause you to exit a trade with a profit?
This one is easy to take for granted. Too many traders think, “Oh, once I get a decent profit I’ll just go ahead and take it.” But a lot depends on the type of methodology that you are using. If you are using a short-term trading system that looks for short-term “pops” in the market, then it might male sense to think in terms of setting “profit targets” and getting out while the getting is good. On the other hand, if you are using a trend-following method you will likely need to maintain the discipline to “let your profits run” in order to generate the big winning trades that virtually all trend-following methods need in order to offset all of the smaller loses that virtually all trend-following methods experience.
The problem comes when a short-term trader decides to “let it ride” or when a trend follower starts “cutting his or her profit short” by taking small profits.
Different Types of Trading Require a Different Mindset
Putting money into a mutual fund or a portfolio of stocks is far different than trading futures or even options. While you can be “hands on” with funds or stocks it is not necessarily a requirement (I still hold a mutual fund that I bought during the Reagan administration). With futures or options, you MUST be – and must be prepared to be – hands on.
Also, big percentage swings in equity are more a way of life in futures and options. I like options because they give you the ability to risk relatively small amounts of capital on any variety of opportunities – bullish, bearish, neutral, hedging and so forth.
I also like futures, but it does require a different level of emotional and financial commitment than most other forms of trading. Many years ago, I wrote about the following “Litmus Test for Futures Traders”. It goes like this:
To tell if you are prepared emotionally and financially to trade futures doe the following.
1. Got to your bank on a windy day.
2. Withdraw a minimum of $10,000 in cash
3. Go outside and start throwing your money up into the air until it all blows away
4. Go home and get back to your routine like nothing ever happened.
If you can pass this test then you are fully prepared to trade futures. If you cannot pass this test it simply means that you need to go into it with your eyes wide open regarding the potential risks (with the knowledge that something similar to what was just described can happen at any time).
Summary
In a perfect world a trader will have well thought out and detailed answers to all of the questions posed above BEFORE they risk their first dollar.
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services,