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Forecast

Odds and Psychology.Based on "Think fast and slow", people have two system thinking. System-1 is autonomous, always working in background (ie unconsciousness), lazy, intuitive, fast, has stereotypes. System-2 is rational, hard problem solving, takes effort and energy, cuts trough the BS, etc (ie consciousness). Based on another book called "superforcasters" and some dude I forgot his name, best approach for odds is to have simple system; where 100% certain. 93% almost certain. 75% probable. 50% about even (or maybe). 25% probably not. 7% almost certainly not. 0% impossible. All forecast are subjective guesses. The catch; If you think something is 100% - you would go allin with max lever. (If you dont) your beliefs or opinion go against your actions. If you dont believe it's wise to go allin - then odds are not actually 100%. If you are stressed about 93% spot, then maybe it might not be 93% after all. (1:14). In key SPX areas, based on business cycle and TNX, logic says one odds (or System-2) and your intuition (or feel) says differently. You are either too bearish or too bullish. This is a simple representation of concept. Another key concept is that TIME <----> PROBABILITY are at opposite sides of coin. The closer or far away in time something - more or less risk, ie higher or lower probability.
SP:SPXEducation
by citsvar
Advantages and Disadvantages of Crypto Currency. Hello dear traders, Here are some educational chart patterns you must know in 2022 and 2023. I hope you find this information educational and informative. We are new here so we ask you to support our views with your likes and comments, Feel free to ask any questions in the comments, and we'll try to answer them all, folks. advantages and Disadvantages of Crypto Currency trading Advantages of Spot Trading:- Spot trading has several advantages over other types of trading, such as margin trading or futures trading. There are several advantages to spot trading: - It is much simpler and easier to understand, making it the best way to get started in the cryptocurrency market. It will give you a good understanding of how the market works and how to trade cryptocurrencies. - There is no need to worry about complex contract terms or managing leverage. - Spot trading provides exposure to the underlying asset rather than just a derivative. This means that you can benefit from changes in the asset price rather than just the direction of price movement. - You can take advantage of market opportunities as they arise rather than waiting for a contract to expire. - Spot trading is suitable for both short-term and long-term strategies. Disadvantages of Spot Trading:- While this may seem like a quick and easy way to make money, there are several disadvantages to this method that you should be aware of before getting started. - One of the biggest disadvantages of spot trading is the volatility of the cryptocurrency markets. Prices can fluctuate wildly from one day to the next, making it difficult to predict when to buy or sell. This can lead to losses if you're not careful. - Another downside of spot trading is that you have no leverage. This means that you can only trade with the amount of money you have in your account. You can't borrow money from a broker as you can in traditional markets. - Spot trading also comes with various fees, including exchange fees, deposit fees, and withdrawal fees. These can add up over time and eat into your profits. - Not all exchanges offer spot trading for every cryptocurrency. This means that you may be unable to find a buyer or seller for the coin you want to trade. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you.
Education
by CryptoSanders9563
2
🔥THE WORST YEAR FOR CRYPTO: 2022 OVERVIEW AND 2023 FORECAST✅🔥Hi friends! Bitcoin fall from $41 500 to $15 500 by 42% this year. 2022 was an amazing year, especially if you are trading using downtrend strategies. But who will be the winner in 2023? Long or short traders? Read more in this idea! 📊 
WHAT WERE THE MAIN REASON FOR BTC DUMP IN 2022? 1. 
LUNA, UST, and Do Kwon are the first such major crash this year. The algorithmic stablecoin UST lost its peg to $ and pulled down the LUNA token, which it was backed by. Terra LUNA had one of the largest amounts of Bitcoin. In total, they had about 81,000 BTC in their wallets, but this did not save them from the fall. LUNA was top-10 altcoin by capitalization but fall from $110 to $0.01. BTC fell from $31 000 to $17 900 by 44%. 2. FTX, FTT and Sam Bankman-Fried. At that moment, it seems like BTC begin to recover and already reached $21 500 after the 4 month consolidation (accumulation) from June to November. CZ tweeted about FTT sell off just only opened eyes to the problem of the #2 exchange. 🚩 Bitcoin fell to $15 500 but actually, it`s not a huge dump, as was all the year before. This fact indicates that there are almost no sellers in the markets and recovery is highly possible. 📊 THIS HAPPENED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE BITCOIN HISTORY The Q1 2022 started with a small fall, but after this, the series of negative events in the cryptocurrency market pushed the price of bitcoin lower and lower. Now we should say that this is the worst year ever. ✅ All 4 quarters (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4) will close at loss FOR THE FIRST TIME IN BTC HISTORY. 📊 THE PREDICTIONS FOR BTC IN 2023 I name this year THE YEAR OF RECOVERY for the crypto market. BTC will reach $32k as a pullback to this year’s dump with a 95% probability. I think that the #1 crypto has a 70% probability test of $45k. ✅ But first, the price can update the lows and reach $10-12k. So if you are a trader , it will be a really good year because of its volatility. If you are a long-term trader or investor , I would be in the market by 20-40% to not miss the possible growth. Another part of the deposit leaves for buying lower at $10-12k or after making new HH and HL at $21-22k. It will be interesting to check the results in a year. 

Friends, what is your target for BTC in 2023? Write your target at the comments. Please, don`t write $200-300k :) 💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Education
by Yuriy_Bishko
12
Neo Wave Learner doubtWhat is the difference between projection overlapping and "obviously different in price and/or time" in NEO Wave? In Pre-Constructive Rules of Logic, Rule#1, Condition_b, Paraghraph_4, it states "If part of m2's price range is shared by m0 and m3 is longer and more vertical than ml during a time span equal to (or less than) ml and m(-1) is shorter than ml and m0 and m2 are obviously different in price or time or both and m4 (or m4 through m6) returns to the beginning of ml in a time period 50% of that consumed by ml through m3, a 5th Extension Terminal pattern may have completed with m3; add ":c3" to ml's Structure list." Here, m0 and m2 should share price range, which means projection overlapping, at the same time, it is mentioned, m0 and m2 should be obviously different in price&/time. Experts please help.. Also, Mr. Neely mentioned, "m1 is longer than m3" in few other places, does the length means, by means of distance between 2 price points or by means of time distance or should i consider a multiple..
TVC:DJIEducation
by SmArT_NEO_WAVE
AMD Trading Pattern 📉📉📉📈 To increase your chance of succeding in the financial markets as a trader you should understand what the market phases is and the logic behind this concept. 🔰 Accumulation - tipically accumulation is a range area where price forms equal highs and lows, from an institutional perspective we can see this zone as a clash between sellers and buyers usually after a accumulation move price will move sharply into a direction 🔰 Manipulation - manipulation aka the FAKE move will be the first move that exists the range in 80% of the situations the first move is just a move to trap retailers go into a certain direction and then quickly reverses, usually the manipulation happens during LN open (London) NY open ( New York ) NYSE open ( Nasdaq ) and the accumulation move forms during asian session especially for fx pairs 🔰 Distribution - distribution is the moment when price takes the opposite direction of the MANIPULATION it is offten called the TRUE DIRECTION of the DAY where its generally raided by institutions because retail traders were trapped in the manipulation phase. Was this a valuable information ?
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by AnonimFXRO
BTC analysis, which could serve as a guideline in the futureDear Market Traders, As you can see, many of us are confused regarding Bitcoin's future path. I believe that many people are hitting SL these days, and once they enter the market, the price goes in the opposite direction. I'd like to share an idea with you that may help you cease trading before Bitcoin reaches 57200~56200, which may occur on November 8th between 0GMT and 6GMT. The time may vary due to minor changes in the direction of the channel. I hope my analysis aids you in the long term in analyzing the market more effectively. Best wishes
Education
by FireXForex
1
How to predict the market moves easily by Forecast indexHello traders! everyone wants to know where market will go at future, by Forecast index you can easily realize if the price can maintain its trend or not Forecast index consisted of trend momentum, trend volume and trend strength which identify future trend reverses Forecast index show you future trend revers by its direction before of every trend reverses , Forecast index change its direction faster than price.. which we call it miracle! its work properly on every chart and time-frame, it becomes a bless at long term trends... to purchase this indicator leave a comment below of this post... Thank you! 1-month= 99$ 3-months= 249$ lifetime access=440$ ***also you have 3-days free trail***
BINANCE:TRXUSD.PEducation
by Ghost3ader
The Crystal ball Strategy - How to Look into the future.There seems to be an endless amount of strategies out there, some promise fast returns while others promise consistency. Recently Ive started to gain some followers and have had some requests for strategies. Well today Im going to share one of my crackpot strategies I call "The Crystal Ball Strategy". This is not like most strategies that rely on indicators, in fact it uses no indicators at all. I don't often trade this one but every now and then I will use it to confirm a trade before placing an order. I stumbled upon to this while I living in the 1 second charts trying to script the perfect entry bot. I started to notice the loops would start on the 1 second chart then make there way to the 30 second, then the 1 min. The next day I would see the pattern on the 1 hour chart. Its like looking into a crystal ball and seeing the future. How it works. Its as simple as opening a split screen with a 1 min char and a 60 min chart. On the 1 min chart find the beginning of the current trend that you are looking at on the 1 hour chart. For the example I am using Bitcoin. Now its just a matter of comparing the two charts. If they are the same (which they normally are) you can setup your trade knowing if it is going to be a long or short and even how good it will be and where to exit. All the data for the 1 hour trend is stored in the first wave. Just a word of warning that things happen along the way like dumps that will change the future but if things coast along fine the 1 hour chart will usually match up with what you saw on the 1 min chart yesterday. Here you can see the 2 charts lined up. The 1 min chart is marked in a yellow box on the 1 hour chart. I have broken up the different parts for comparison. In this example the charts suggest to place a short. This is scrolled back left, you can see the 2 charts match characteristics. Im sharing this for educational purposes only and have not backtested it enough. I just figure some people may be interested and strongly urge you to not run out and put on a "YOLO".
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PEducation
by veryfid
33
The Dollar INFLATION? Part 2 (see link to Part 1 attached below) Hello,Traders! As we found out in Part 1,the FED and The Treasury added 5.3 Trillion dollars to the money supply, with 3 Trillion Dollars being spent, not invested and all that coming from borrowing, not taxes, which would have created price inflation even without the supply shock. However, the supply side was also affected by the lockdowns, and below is a summary of how this happened! First of all, we saw a massive structural change, with the demand suddenly shifting from services to goods , as the majority of the former became unavailable to the indoors bound population. That additional demand for goods, would have strained the supply chain in any scenario, but several factors made it much much worse. First, the lockdowns in China, especially Wohan, a major logistics hub, brought some of the manufacturing and shipping to a halt, that led to the initial shortages, but the demand fell sharply too, so at first, the two canceled each other out. Then with China opening up at the end of 2020 faster than any other country, and the demand picking up in the US and other countries , China started shipping Covid-19 supplies and other goods to the rest of the world. But as manufacturing in China recovered , the United States were locked down, which affected two major ports in the US : the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The thing is that 41% of all the US container traffic goes through just these two, and while the container traffic went up by 49%, the ports were operating at lower capacity , due to the dock workers either being sick with Covid, or being in quarantine. Loaded Ships were stranded for weeks , waiting to be unloaded, doubling the shipping time. As if that wasn’t enough, the shipping containers price went from 1800$ to 3500$ , because due to the lockdowns in the US there wasn’t much to be shipped back to China, and for every 100 containers that went in, only 40 were exported back . The ports operating at lower capacity didn’t have the resources to load empty containers onto the ships going back to China, and the truck drivers shortage lead to that the empty containers weren’t returned back to the ports, from inside the US. This led to a vicious cycle: shortage of shipping containers was worsening the shortage of shipping capacity, which was worsened by the shortage of port capacity, which in turn was worsening the shortage of shipping containers, which as in turn worsened by the shortage of truck drivers which worsened the shortage of goods. All that led to scarcity exacerbated by the debt funded, non-investment consumer spending, and worsened by a demand shifting from services to goods.A perfect storm situation, which nearly collapsed the «Just-in-Time» manufacturing based supply chains. All that led to the official FED inflation figures for April 2021 being 4.2% , which is A LOT! And more is to come, if the lockdowns are not lifted, and, especially,if Biden's 6 Trillion budget gets passed. Please, Like comment and subscribe!
Education
by TopTradingSignals
1
The Dollar INFLATION? Part 1 Hello,Traders! The fears of inflation are now the reality, with the official FED number showing that inflation went from 1.6% in 2020 to 4.2% in April 2021, which means that the situation "on the ground" is even worse. Even just by looking at the charts of lumber, copper , and other commodities , while finding out that all the cars in your local dealership are sold out a year ahead, and the car prices are up, with the FED and the Treasury competing for the number of zeros on their official operating papers, the thoughts of «shortages» and «inflation» are naturally creeping into your head,followed by the question of "how it all came to it?" And while the Covid-19 and the lockdowns are the obvious culprits, the details are interesting. So let's dive into the mess of the Covid-19 consequences to find out. Generally, Inflation can be caused by any of the two components: excess money supply, directed towards consumption, as opposed to investments, or goods supply shortage, with the unchanged money supply. In 2021 we seem to have both, but the details are quite peculiar. Let's deal with the excess money supply bit first, as it is kinda obvious: In march of 2020, the FED added 2.3 Trillion dollars to the direct asset purchases program, while expanding indirect liquidity by relaxing bank reserves standards, and relieving other regulations of the money markets to facilitate lending and prevent broad money contraction. Most of that money, however, went into the financial assets, inflating the asset prices, which can be seen by looking at the prices of Gold , Bitcoin , S&P500 , and other key benchmarks. U.S. Fiscal Policy bit, however,was more directly relevant to the consumer goods inflation . Throughout March and April 2020, the U.S. government passed three main relief packages and one supplemental package, totaling nearly $2.8 trillion. After the passage of the supplementary package in April, nicknamed "stimulus phase 3.5," there was no substantial action on COVID-19 stimulus or relief from Congress for several months as each party proposed their own stimulus package. Then, after the election of President Biden in November, a $900 billion stimulus bill was passed in December 2020. Another $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, was signed into law by President Biden on March 11, 2021. 3 Trillion Dollars was actually spent so far, the remainder being available to congress for allocation. Most of that money was spent, not invested, and came from borrowing, not taxes, which, would have added to inflation even without the supply shock. The supply side of the equation, however, looks much more complicated, but we will dive into that in the next article, tomorrow! If you want to read the most interesting piece, please like comment, and subscribe!
Education
by TopTradingSignals
1
The Dollar INFLATION? Part 2. (see link to Part 1 attached below) Hello,Traders! As we found out in Part 1, the FED and The Treasury added 5.3 Trillion dollars to the money supply , with 3 Trillion Dollars being spent, not invested and all that coming from borrowing, not taxes, which would have created price inflation even without the supply shock. However, the supply side was also affected by the lockdowns, and below is a summary of how this happened! First of all, we saw a massive structural change, with the demand suddenly shifting from services to goods , as the majority of the former became unavailable to the indoors bound population. That additional demand for goods, would have strained the supply chain in any scenario, but several factors made it much much worse. First, the lockdowns in China, especially Wohan, a major logistics hub, brought some of the manufacturing and shipping to a halt, that led to the initial shortages, but the demand fell sharply too, so at first, the two canceled each other out. Then with China opening up at the end of 2020 faster than any other country, and the demand picking up in the US and other countries , China started shipping Covid-19 supplies and other goods to the rest of the world. But as manufacturing in China recovered, the United States were locked down, which affected two major ports in the US : the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The thing is that 41% of all the US container traffic goes through just these two, and while the container traffic went up by 49%, the ports were operating at lower capacity, due to the dock workers either being sick with Covid, or being in quarantine. Loaded Ships were stranded for weeks , waiting to be unloaded, doubling the shipping time. As if that wasn’t enough, the shipping containers price went from 1800$ to 3500$ , because due to the lockdowns in the US there wasn’t much to be shipped back to China, and for every 100 containers that went in, only 40 were exported back . The ports operating at lower capacity didn’t have the resources to load empty containers onto the ships going back to China, and the truck drivers shortage lead to that the empty containers weren’t returned back to the ports, from inside the US. This led to a vicious cycle: shortage of shipping containers was worsening the shortage of shipping capacity, which was worsened by the shortage of port capacity, which in turn was worsening the shortage of shipping containers, which as in turn worsened by the shortage of truck drivers which worsened the shortage of goods. All that led to scarcity exacerbated by the debt funded, non-investment consumer spending, and worsened by a demand shifting from services to goods.A perfect storm situation, which nearly collapsed the «Just-in-Time» manufacturing based supply chains. All that led to the official FED inflation figures for April 2021 being 4.2%, which is A LOT ! And more is to come, if the lockdowns are not lifted, and, especially,if Biden's 6 Trillion budget gets passed. Please, Like comment and subscribe!
Education
by TopTradingSignals
8
Learn to Read Charts (Regression & BTC)✅ What is Regression? Regression is a statistical method used in finance, investing, and other disciplines that attempts to determine the strength and character of the relationship between one dependent variable (usually denoted by Y) and a series of other variables (known as independent variables). The general form of each type of regression is: Simple linear regression: Y = a + bX + u Multiple linear regression: Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 + ... + btXt + u ✅ We can use linear regression in both Bullish and Bearish markets. All you need is the center and you can easily find the tunnel (channel) for forecasting. Also, you shouldn't let the noises distract you because they might make you misread your highs and lows. In other words: The tunnel (channel) of your linear regression works as dynamic support and resistance. ✅ TradingView lets you use the Regression Trend for fast and easy forecasting. You can find it in the toolbar beside your chart.
Education
by ShawnMCR
10
Forward into the past!Let's start from the beginning!!! Every day I get a lot of messages from the newbies from ower the world with the same problem... "I have opened a trade position without stop-loss! What should I do? A bigger part of my deposit gone!" It's so sad to hear about it! Stop-loss - an exchange request placed in a trading terminal by a trader or investor in order to limit their losses when the price reaches a predetermined level. Almost all experienced Forex traders agree that it is necessary to set the stop loss in any style of trading. Beginners who have only come to the market often neglect this rule, but over time they also come to understand (or they just stop trading because of constant losses). Ways to Stop Loss To trade on any financial market (not only on, but also on commodity futures, the stock market or even exchange) a system is required. As a rule, each quality trading strategy has rules for setting a stop loss, but there are universal techniques that will fit almost any vehicle. The easiest way to set the stop loss is on the local minimum (when buying) or maximum (when selling). Finally, it's important to realize that stop-loss orders do not guarantee you'll make money in the stock market; you still have to make intelligent investment decisions. If you don't, you'll lose just as much money as you would without a stop-loss (only at a much slower rate).
Editors' picks
Education
by Yuriy_Bishko
107
How to be prepared in case of manipulation movement? Tips!!!In this mini-class, I want to discuss the H4 and H1 and Daily timeframe on the BItcoin price using the BItcoin as example of the manipulation. That is simulated and experimental what will be happing in case that doesn't have a bullish movement and bears take the domain again. Look in the H4, we could see a formation of bearish rising wedge, but yesterday we see a simetric triangle that I still in this example But, now looking in H1 timeframe, the price make a little correction until the $11,020 USD, but in cases that Bitcoin go to the $11,100 USD, in that exact point, we need to stay alert in case that we will have a bearish candlestick group. So, in case that was a bearish candlestick, the price action is goes to speak us that we need to sell Bitcoin if the demand is weakness!!! Because as the demadn is weakness, we could see a deep correction until the $10,638 USD, and that is a perfect target to put in short position in BItocin in case, but our position is still bullish until we not look and be cautelous in that zone that I talk. Right now, lookin the Daily, we see a bull trend, but in cases that Bitcoin doesn't make support above of $11,100 USD and starting to show a bearish candlestik, is an huge alert to closed up our long positio nand then, pick up our money in profit, that we are in crypto in LTC. ETH and BTC. So, guys, this is my class to knowing how to be prepared for in cases of manipulation movmeent, I invite below to look an example of manipulation when we are in the up-trend in the example of simetric tirnagle and later in some hours formed a bearis rising wedge. That two examples I explain why we need to be prepared in two side in cases that Bitcoin make in the next hours possible manipulation to identification Well, guys, this is an tutorial to learn how to make trading in Bitcoin and be prepared of market's manipulation If you like it my idea, please support this idea in your analysis!!! Tips: 1. Always look the price action 2. Be prepared when there will be possibles formation that you not see, always mark lines formation, support and resistance formation and more!!! Be creative 3. If in cases that we dont see a reversal of the trend, was a fake alarm and we continue with security our trend
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by harisonhbn9718
2
You often ask me about size of depo for start!If you will be patient and choose the "A" version you will become a confident trader with low losses. You can lose $ 200 and start again later, again, and again till you succeed! You will recover all your losses later, your knowledge and skills stay with you so, in the future, you can choose trading as your main profession. If you will choose the "B" version you will get a crushed nervous system, large debts, and loathing of traders and markets. Be smart and patient! Don't repeat the mistakes of most people! If you need growing profits TODAY it's better to start learning with a small account, but your main capital assets to entrust to the management of an experienced trader. Support my idea if you think it's useful! Stay awesome!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Yuriy_Bishko
13
USDCHF, Are the levels working or not? This is a post for those people who think that absolutely nothing can be predicted and can only move in the trend. The level was seen by everyone and nevertheless, it worked out beautifully, and at a ratio of 1 to 10 trade can be considered excellent. After such a sell you can fly to the ocean and not work next month))). The price can fall even more... Dear followers, the best "Thank you" will be your likes and comments! Thanks for your support!
Education
by Yuriy_Bishko
15