Why are fundamentals ESSENTIAL in forex trading?What is the thing that manipulates the market to make sure your stop loss is touched in less than a minute? Simple, Fundamentals.
Forex trading constitutes the most accessible form of trading for individuals. Low barrier entries, low commissions, forex possess everything that a young trader wants. However, content that most young traders learn from on YouTube puts emphasis on technical analysis and neglects fundamental trading.
Big institutions like central banks or hedge funds, who are the ones moving the price, always make entries depending on the economics of a state. For example, EURUSD has recently reached the historical level of under 1.00000, a level that hasn’t been reached for over 20 years, after the European Union stopped dealing gas and oil with Russia.
(see the image in the chart)
Furthermore, oil prices are closely related to Canadian currency, where increasing the price will increase the value of the currency. As the price of oil is increasing, AUDCAD is reaching historical levels of under 0.86000.
Therefore, we can clearly see that fundamentals influence the market’s direction.
We can apply fundamentals to reduce our risk as well. Indeed, we can identify risky opportunities and filter out bad trades or reduce the position size.
However, over the short term technical analysis can be a practical tool to determine price reversals or the timing of an entry. History tends to repeat itself, it is the same about markets. As a matter of fact, we can use historical market price data to forecast market movements.
In a perfect world, each trade would be the result of a mix of the two, with fundamental analysis assisting technical analysis. In conclusion, digital content to learn trading leans toward technical analysis even though fundamentals contribute to an important part of profitable trades by forecasting future market prices.
Forex_signals
Institutional Liquidity Orderflow 📉📉📉Hi guys! I would like to briefly explain my strategy, I use liquidity to understand where should market go .
🏦 Liquidity is basically a zone in the market where a lot of stops are located both retail/ institutional, I will look to enter near that area but only after the manipulation on the buy-side or sell-side liquidity to all my trades with "Smart Money". as known as "Wall Street"
You can separate the Liquidity Concepts in two areas.
✅ Buy Side Liquidity - area of the price where sellers put their stop loss, its located on old highs, equal highs (Resistance) above double tops, above key psychological numbers
✅ Sell Side Liquidity - area of the price where buyers put their stop losses, usually below old lows, below equal lows(support), below psychological key levels.
‼️ REMEMBER
Dumb Money sell at high
Smart Money SELL ABOVE THE HIGH
Dumb Money buy at low
Smart Money BUY BELOW THE LOW
Using this concept as i explained you will have less stop losses because you will allign your trades with institutional orderflow.
I attached couple photos so you can have a better understanding.
Bearish Candlestick Pattern's 📉📉📉📈 Technical Analysis
I use those bearish candlestick patterns as an extra confluence when price gets into my POI (point of interest) they can make your trade much better.
⬇️ Bearish POI look for :
Tweezer Tops
Three Red Crows
Bearish Engulfing
Evening Star
Hanging Man
Evening Star
Gravestone Doji
‼️ Don't use them ALONE as a single argument, the change of getting a good trade could dramatically decrease
What do you think about those candlestick patterns, do you use them ?
Volume Trading Indicator 📉📉📉✅ Volume is an important indicator in technical analysis because it is used to measure the relative significance of a market move. The higher the volume during a price move, the more significant the move and the lower the volume during a price move, the less significant the move.
✅ Volume indicators are technical tools to evaluate a security's bull and bear power. Most look specifically at buying vs. selling pressure to determine which side is in control of price action. Others attempt to identify emotions that are moving the security at a particular time
✅ A high positive multiplier with high volume indicates strong buying pressure which pushes the indicator higher. On the other hand, a low negative number with high volume indicates strong selling pressure which pushes the indicator lower.
✅ Down volume indicates bearish trading, while up volume indicates bullish trading. If the price of a security falls, but only on low volume, there may be other factors at work aside from a true bear turn
Do you use this trading indicator ?
✅ RISK ON vs RISK OFF ✅ Today we will talk about RISK ON vs RISK OFF Market Sentiment as i use this confluence to enter trades.
🎯 Risk ON vs Risk OFF market sentiment reflects all the market activity, its not a market sentiment for crypto or forex or stock market its for all the financial markets, when i use this confluence i try to understand what are institutional/retail investors are doing are they buying risk on assets or they are buying risk on assets.
🎯 Usually investors buy risk on assets when they are looking for risk meaning they want higher yield on their investment they want to MULTIPLY money(key word) this is happening during times of financial prosperity, no wars, no lockdowns, no problems around the world everyone are doing great and making money
🎯 On other side RISK OFF is when investors tend to buy financil assets that PROTECT (key word) their capital they dont want a high yield they want just to save their money and protect during time of financial stress, wars, lockdowns when everything is not clear and safe.
✅ RISK ON Assets
Stock Market
Crypto
USOil
AUD
NZD
CAD
EUR
GBP
✅ RISK OFF Assets
Government Bonds
JPY
CHF
USD
GOLD
SILVER
Market Strucutre 📉📉📉✅ MARKET STRUCUTURE .
Today we will talk about market strucutre in the financial markets, market strucuture is basicall the understading where the institutional traders/investors are positioned are they short or long on certain financial asset, it is very important to be positioned your trading opportunities with the trend as the saying says trend is your friend follow the trend when you are taking trades that are alligned with the strucutre you have a better probability of them closing in profit.
✅ Types of Market Strucuture
🎯 Bearish Market Strucuture - institutions are positioned LONG, look only to enter long/buy trades, we are spotingt the bullish market strucutre if price is making higher highs (hh) and higher lows (hl)
🎯 Bullish Market Strucutre - institutions are positioned SHORT, look only to enter short/sell trades, we are spoting the bearish market strucutre when price is making lower highs (lh) and lower lows (ll)
🎯 Range Market Strucutre - the volumes on short/long trades are equall instiutions dont have a clear direction we are spoting this strucutre if we see price making equal highs and equal lows and is accumulating .
I hope i was clear enough so you can understand this very important trading concept, remember its not in the number its in the quality of the trades and to have a better quality try to allign every trading idea with the actual strucutre
BOS - BREAK OF STRUCTURE 📉📉📉🎯 WHAT IS BOS ?
BOS - break of strucuture. I will use market strucutre bullish or bearish to understand if the institutions are buying or selling a financial asset.
To spot a bullish/bearish market strucutre we should see a higher highs and higher lows and viceversa, to spot the continuation of the bullish market strucuture we should see bullish price action above the last old high in the strucutre this is the BOS.
🎯 BOS for me is a confirmation that price will go higher after the retracement and we are still in a bullish move
Kindly see attached photos
Do you use BOS as a trading concept ?
The 2 Different Market Condition 💰💰💰💰 Balanced Market Occurs
1)Before any bigger economic events, news are expected (e.g RBI policy announcement, FED meeting ..etc)
2)Consolidation in the market after the uptrend or downtrend.
3)Low Participation from the Other timeframe players or Institutional players (Christmas & New Year holiday season)
4)Lack of liquidity(both buy side and sell side) in the market.
The result of this price rotational process is the discovery of prices that are acceptable to both the buyers and the sellers.
💰 Imbalanced Market : It represents a trending market (uptrend or downtrend). Imbalanced market shows the conviction of other timeframe players. The auction is said to be one sided or directional where there are either more Buyers than Sellers or more Sellers than Buyers depending on the direction of price.
Imbalance of buyers will drive the prices higher till the buyers exhausted and the sellers take control of the market. And the Imbalance of Sellers drives the market lower till the sellers get exhausted and the buyers take control of the market.
💰 Imbalanced Market Occurs When
1)Major economic event days (RBI rate decision day, Election Results Day, GDP Announcements…etc)
2)Major catastrophic events.
3)Opening Gap Up or Gap Down days due to major positive or negative news impact.
4)Strong Global Markets Sentiment.
Volume Trading Indicator ✅✅✅✅ Volume is an important indicator in technical analysis because it is used to measure the relative significance of a market move. The higher the volume during a price move, the more significant the move and the lower the volume during a price move, the less significant the move.
✅ Volume indicators are technical tools to evaluate a security's bull and bear power. Most look specifically at buying vs. selling pressure to determine which side is in control of price action. Others attempt to identify emotions that are moving the security at a particular time.
✅ A high positive multiplier with high volume indicates strong buying pressure which pushes the indicator higher. On the other hand, a low negative number with high volume indicates strong selling pressure which pushes the indicator lower.
✅ Down volume indicates bearish trading, while up volume indicates bullish trading. If the price of a security falls, but only on low volume, there may be other factors at work aside from a true bear turn
Do you use Volume Trading Indicator ?
Cup and Handle Trading Pattern 📉📉📉✅ A cup and handle is a technical chart pattern that resembles a cup and handle where the cup is in the shape of a "u" and the handle has a slight downward drift. A cup and handle is considered a bullish signal extending an uptrend, and it is used to spot opportunities to go long.
🎯 Cup Handle Pattern
William O'Neil's Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. ... The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right-hand side and the handle is formed
🎯 What happens after cup and handle pattern?
If a cup and handle pattern is confirmed, it will be followed by a bullish price move upward. You can pick a price target based on the size of the cup, but it becomes much less clear what will happen after the initial breakout from the cup and handle pattern.
🎯 How reliable is cup and handle pattern?
The accuracy rate for cup and handle pattern for forex and stock on Daily timeframe are 65% and 68% respectively.
Three Black Crows Candlestick Pattern 📉📉📉Three black crows is a phrase used to describe a bearish candlestick pattern that may predict the reversal of an uptrend. Candlestick charts show the day's opening, high, low, and closing prices for a particular security. For stocks moving higher, the candlestick is white or green.
🎯 The three black crows candlestick pattern is considered a relatively reliable bearish reversal pattern. Consisting of three consecutive bearish candles at the end of a bullish trend, the three black crows signals a shift of control from the bulls to the bears.
✅ The black crow pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have opened within the real body of the previous candle and closed lower than the previous candle. Often, traders use this indicator in conjunction with other technical indicators or chart patterns as confirmation of a reversal.
✅ Three Black Crows Explained
Three black crows are a visual pattern, meaning that there are no particular calculations to worry about when identifying this indicator. The three black crows pattern occurs when bears overtake the bulls during three consecutive trading sessions. The pattern shows on the pricing charts as three bearish long-bodied candlesticks with short or no shadows or wicks.
In a typical appearance of three black crows, the bulls will start the session with the price opening modestly higher than the previous close, but the price is pushed lower throughout the session. In the end, the price will close near the session low under pressure from the bears.
This trading action will result in a very short or nonexistent shadow. Traders often interpret this downward pressure sustained over three sessions to be the start of a bearish downtrend.
✅ Limitations of Using Three Black Crows
If the three black crows pattern involves a significant move lower, traders should be wary of oversold conditions that could lead to consolidation before a further move lower. The best way to assess the oversold nature of a stock or other asset is by looking at technical indicators, such as the relative strength index (RSI), where a reading below 30.0 indicates oversold conditions, or the stochastic oscillator indicator that shows the momentum of movement.
Many traders typically look at other chart patterns or technical indicators to confirm a breakdown, rather than using the three black crows pattern exclusively. As a visual pattern, it is open to some interpretation such as what is an appropriately short shadow.
Do you use this candlestick pattern ?
Trading Aspects to Master 📉📉📉🎯 Analysing
To trade like a profesional first of all you have to learn technical/fundamental techinques to trade the market without them you have zero chance to succed in the markets.
Learn - candlestick patterns, simple patterns, fibonaci, market structure, trendline, imbalance, orderblock, volume profile etc
🎯 Risk Management
To survive in this game you need a very strict risk management, you will pass hard times and your account will survive.
Risk Management rules should include :
Risk per trade
Session Risk
Daily Drawdown Limit
Weekly Drawdown Limit
Monthly Drawdown Limit
You have to know your numbers, start small then grow.
🎯 Entries
Develop a rule based entry strategy always and every time, for example you will short a certain asset only if price is in a bearish market structure and its rejecting a fibonacci key area, you have to build your own system and develop confidence.
Was this information valuable ?
Intra-Day Strategies 📉📉📉Today i will share with you types of intra-day strategies that can work in every market no matter if it's forex/stocks or crypto.
📊 Reversal Strategy
Buy close to the support (demand area) and sell from the resistance (Supply area) for the reversal move
📊 Patterns
Buy/Sell using different technical patterns such as Wedge,Triangle,DoubleTop Double Bottoms, Head&Shoulders
📊 Moving Averages
Using MA to understand trends and cross-overs, basically you have to LONG when price is above EMA/MA and vice-versa
📊 Pullbacks
When a new's event makes a big movement such as CPI,NFP, Unemployment but then a correction move happens
📊 Gap Up/Down
Trading Gap's Up/Down basically they appear during fundamental release or fundamental context when the market is closed, it's basically a big discrepancy between buyers and sellers
What is your intra-day strategy
Survival Rules in TRADING 📉📉📉📉 Survival rules in trading for newbies, if you respect those rules i can make a bet you wound't lose your account as the majority of traders are.
📉 The key word there is IF YOU RESPECT
✅ 1. Always trade with a stop loss
✅ 2. Have a pre-determined risk on each trade no more then 1%
✅ 3. Don't move your stop loss if the price is not going in your favour
✅ 4. Don't add to losing positions, only viceversa. Add to your winning positions
✅ 5. You have to increase your risk only if you are in profit on your account, decrease your risk when you are losing and increase it when you are winning.
Hope that was usefull for your trading plan.
Forex Market ✅✅✅
✅ KEY TAKEAWAYS
The foreign exchange (also known as FX or forex) market is a global marketplace for exchanging national currencies against one another.
Market participants use forex to hedge against international currency and interest rate risk, to speculate on geopolitical events, and to diversify portfolios, among several other reasons.
Major players in this market tend to be financial institutions like commercial banks, central banks, money managers and hedge funds.
Global corporations use forex markets to hedge currency risk from foreign transactions.
Individuals (retail traders) are a very small relative portion of all forex volume, and mainly use the market to speculate and day trade.
✅ Who Trades Forex?
The forex market not only has many players but many types of players. Here we go through some of the major types of institutions and traders in forex markets:
📊 Commercial & Investment Banks
The greatest volume of currency is traded in the interbank market. This is where banks of all sizes trade currency with each other and through electronic networks. Big banks account for a large percentage of total currency volume trades. Banks facilitate forex transactions for clients and conduct speculative trades from their own trading desks.
When banks act as dealers for clients, the bid-ask spread represents the bank's profits. Speculative currency trades are executed to profit on currency fluctuations. Currencies can also provide diversification to a portfolio mix.
📊 Central Banks
Central banks, which represent their nation's government, are extremely important players in the forex market. Open market operations and interest rate policies of central banks influence currency rates to a very large extent.
A central bank is responsible for fixing the price of its native currency on forex. This is the exchange rate regime by which its currency will trade in the open market. Exchange rate regimes are divided into floating, fixed and pegged types.
Any action taken by a central bank in the forex market is done to stabilize or increase the competitiveness of that nation's economy. Central banks (as well as speculators) may engage in currency interventions to make
their currencies appreciate or depreciate.
For example, a central bank may weaken its own currency by creating additional supply during periods of long deflationary trends, which is then used to purchase foreign currency. This effectively weakens the domestic currency, making exports more competitive in the global market.
Central banks use these strategies to calm inflation. Their doing so also serves as a long-term indicator for forex traders.
📊 Investment Managers and Hedge Funds
Portfolio managers, pooled funds and hedge funds make up the second-biggest collection of players in the forex market next to banks and central banks. Investment managers trade currencies for large accounts such as pension funds, foundations, and endowments.
An investment manager with an international portfolio will have to purchase and sell currencies to trade foreign securities. Investment managers may also make speculative forex trades, while some hedge funds execute speculative currency trades as part of their investment strategies.
📊 Multinational Corporations
Firms engaged in importing and exporting conduct forex transactions to pay for goods and services. Consider the example of a German solar panel producer that imports American components and sells its finished products in China. After the final sale is made, the Chinese yuan the producer received must be converted back to euros. The German firm must then exchange euros for dollars to purchase more American components.
Companies trade forex to hedge the risk associated with foreign currency translations. The same German firm might purchase American dollars in the spot market, or enter into a currency swap agreement to obtain dollars in advance of purchasing components from the American company in order to reduce foreign currency exposure risk.
Additionally, hedging against currency risk can add a level of safety to offshore investments.
📊 Individual Investors
The volume of forex trades made by retail investors is extremely low compared to financial institutions and companies. However, it is growing rapidly in popularity. Retail investors base currency trades on a combination of fundamentals (i.e., interest rate parity, inflation rates, and monetary policy expectations) and technical factors (i.e., support, resistance, technical indicators, price patterns).
Was this information valuable ?
Tips for Trading Currency Pairs ✅📉 Trading Currency Pairs
I will try to explain in this post what you should look at when you are starting trading the Forex Market (Currency Market )
✅ Choose Liquid Pairs
Choose liquid pairs so you will have all your orders filled easily, dont trade pairs with low Liquidity as those can impact your trading results. EURUSD / GBPUSD / AUDUSD / NZDUSD etc and don't trage USDZAR / USDRON / USDBRL and other exotic pairs
✅ Analyze Fundamentals
Fundamentals drive the markets especially in the Forex Market, take a look at the country's monetary policy are they hawkish or doveish on a certain currency, also take a look at inflation, nfp, unemploymenyt, gdp as those affect the market as well.
✅ Determening the Leverage
My recommend leverage for newbies is something around 1-30 / 1-50 so you wound't over trade.
✅ Trading Strategy
Always ensure you have a trading strategy when you will start to trade, look at those things such as market structure, key psychological levels, fiibonacci, moving averages to build a trading strategy.
✅ Choose your Trading Timeframe
You have to know what trading style you are trading, is this scalping on the lower time frame or highertimeframe position trading. Ensure you have this noted in your trading plan
Bearish Engulfing Pattern 📉📉📉Bearish engulfing pattern is a technical chart pattern that signals lower prices to come. The pattern consists of an up (white or green) candlestick followed by a large down (black or red) candlestick that eclipses or "engulfs" the smaller up candle.
✅ A bearish engulfing pattern is a hint that a market may have formed a top. Any engulfing pattern below the daily time frame should be ignored. These patterns should only be traded at swing highs. The engulfing candle must break key support to be considered “tradable
✅ Bullish engulfing patterns are a confirmation that more buyers want to join the uptrend. On the other side, a bearish engulfing pattern gives confirmation for more sellers joining the short side
✅ An engulfing pattern is a strong reversal signal. There are bullish and bearish engulfing patterns and they are composed of two candlesticks – one bullish and one bearish. ... It is no
Power of Consistency 📉📉📉📉 Consistency Power
🔰 Don't focus on short term results when trading, it's a marathon not a sprint. You can't become elite traders overnight
🔰 Don't care about short term results and single trade outcome, only look at the weekly,monthly results as they are not random as daily results,a single trade means nothing dont be anxious and change something in your system only if you have more than 100 trades journaled so you know what works and what doesn't
🔰 Don't try to hit home runs aka BIG RETURNS OVERNIGHT it's a gambler short term thinking and their account have zero durability overtime
🔰 Focus on risk management and improve your edge over the market on a daily basis both technical and mental/emotional
LONG TERM over SHORT TERM ✅
RSI Trading Indicator 📉📉📉🎯 RSI - Relative Strenght Index
What Is the Relative Strength Index (RSI)?
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can have a reading from 0 to 100.
Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition (kindly see the photos attached)
Survival Rules in TRADING 📉📉📉‼️ Survival rules in trading for newbies, if you respect those rules i can make a bet you wound't lose your account as the majority of traders are.
‼️ The key word there is IF YOU RESPECT
✅ 1. Always trade with a stop loss
✅ 2. Have a pre-determined risk on each trade no more then 1%
✅ 3. Don't move your stop loss if the price is not going in your favour
✅ 4. Don't add to losing positions, only viceversa. Add to your winning positions
✅ 5. You have to increase your risk only if you are in profit on your account, decrease your risk when you are losing and increase it when you are winning.
Hope that was usefull for your trading plan.
Liquidity Concept 📈Hi guys! I would like to briefly explain my strategy, I use liquidity to understand where should market go .
🏦 Liquidity is basically a zone in the market where a lot of stops are located both retail/ institutional, I will look to enter near that area but only after the manipulation on the buy-side or sell-side liquidity to all my trades with "Smart Money". as known as "Wall Street"
You can separate the Liquidity Concepts in two areas.
✅ Buy Side Liquidity - area of the price where sellers put their stop loss, its located on old highs, equal highs (Resistance) above double tops, above key psychological numbers
✅ Sell Side Liquidity - area of the price where buyers put their stop losses, usually below old lows, below equal lows(support), below psychological key levels.
‼️ REMEMBER
Dumb Money sell at high
Smart Money SELL ABOVE THE HIGH
Dumb Money buy at low
Smart Money BUY BELOW THE LOW
Using this concept as i explained you will have less stop losses because you will allign your trades with institutional orderflow.
🎯 Trading Plan Questions I will try to show you in this post how my intra-day trading plan works and what exactly do i use in terms of risk,pairs,timeframes.
✅ What are my trading goals ?
My intraday trading goal is to close the day in GREEN, but if i see no opportunities i dont push the buttons just to get to a profitabile day.
Focus on making 1% a day this means 22% a month that is a lot just do your math and understand the power of consistency
✅ What timeframe do i use ?
My intra-day timeframes that i am using are H1/M30/M15 you need to
know which is your higher timeframe and execution time frame for me its M15, neither higher or lower.
✅ How long to hold trades ?
Usually in 80% of the trades i hit the stop loss or take profit order before the day ends, i can left a open position overnight only if it's secured risk.
✅ Which Currency Pairs to follow ?
As you are trading intra-day you need volatility and low spreads, i trade the most volatilite instruments such as nasdaq, gold, oil, gbpusd, gbpjpy, bitcoin on the session opening as the spread is lower during those hours.
✅ What is the Risk per Trade ?
When you are starting an intra-day account you have to know first of all what will be the risk you take in every trade, the session risk and finally the daily risk.
It's very important to RESPECT the daily risk rule as this keeps you in the game when the market conditions are bad.
What is your Trading Plan ??