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QML pattern Quasimodo | SMART MONEY CONCEPTHello all. Today we will talk about the reversal pattern "Quasimodo" or QML. Schematically it looks like this: The price moves in the trend, in POI the structure breaks and after that, the price can not update the previous HH and the downward movement continues (consider a schematic example). In this example, after the breakdown of the structure, the price reverses to soften and remove internal liquidity, after which a reversal occurs. This is done in order to close a losing position at the expense of those who put their stop losses behind the maximum of the substructure. There are many names for this pattern, such as three tap setup, but I'm more accustomed to calling it quasimodo. If you like, it's a reworked version of the "head and shoulders" pattern, but in this case you're focusing on the price action instead of the picture. Criteria for QML formation 1. Use it in HTF POI 2. Watch HTF POI 3.Watch the price action. 4. Premium or Discount zone To use the pattern effectively, you must analyze the chart of all TFs. And use the pattern as an entry model. For example, the daily TF is bearish. The price is in the premium zone, as well as on the H1 TF began an uptrend, a full of bullish trend in the lower TF, after which we see that the substructure (red) has changed from a rising to a descending. And thus, we expect a continuation of the downtrend. Important Don't use this pattern in terms of "drawing". They can draw anything on the chart. I recommend to look for POI in POI of higher TFs. An additional factor could be substructure fluctuations before FWG or OB. You need to see how the price behaves after their update. Where to put a stop loss The first option is a stop-loss for a local FVG/OB The second - above swing high of substrucutre Third - above the HTF point of interest, if your RR allows it EXAMPLE After updating the all-time high, the daily structure was broken. Then price consolidated, it was worth waiting for the manipulation. It was possible to enter from HTF POI - aggressive entry, but it was possible to wait for confirmation on the LTF (as I do). I'm expect bullish OF on 4H chart to HTF POI (2D ob) This "entry into position" is shown as an example, so that you can form an understanding of how to act in this or that situation. In conclusion, the more factors you take into account in your analysis, the higher the probability of working out of the pattern. Also, it's up to you to choose what kind of stop loss you will use. There is no right and wrong, everything depends on your strategy and money management. The position was opened after the second liquidity raid in the premium market. I hope it was helpful to you. Thank you for your attention
Education
by Patronofbargain
Head & Shoulders Pattern - Advanced AnalysisIn this series about chart patterns we previously discussed narrowing wedges patterns, explaining their identification rules, the measure rule associated with them, and various observations. In this post, we will cover head & shoulders, inverse head & shoulders, and their complex counterpart. We will cover their identification rules, measure rules, and share some observations regarding these unique yet popular patterns. The topics covered in this post are mostly based on the work of Bulkowski on chart patterns (1). 1. Head And Shoulders The head and shoulder pattern also referred to as Head-and-Shoulders Tops by Bulkowski, is a bearish reversal structure commonly found in uptrends, characterized by a series of three maxima with the center maxima higher than the other two. The first maxima is denoted as "Left Shoulder", the second maxima (the highest one in the formation) is denoted as "Head", and the third maxima is denoted as "Right Shoulder". The volume on a head and shoulders formation should be decreasing over time. Bulkwoski points out that symmetry can play an important role in the validity of an H&S pattern. 1: H&S = Left Shoulder < Head > Right Shoulder 2: Left Shoulder ≈ Right Shoulder The first and second maxima are followed by two minima, the line connecting these two-point form the "neckline". Price breaking the neckline downward is a bearish signal (note that a low volume breakout is not indicative of a potential failure). Ongoing H&S on PGAL daily, waiting for the price to reach the neckline. 2. Inverted Head And Shoulders The inverted head and shoulder pattern also referred to as Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms by Bulkowski, is a bullish reversal structure commonly found in downtrends, characterized by a series of three minima with the centre minima lower than the previous two. The first minima is denoted as "Left Shoulder", the second minima (the lowest one in the formation) is denoted as "Head", and the third minima is denoted as "Right Shoulder". Like with a regular H&S, the volume should be decreasing over time. We can see it's simply a regular H&S pattern, but inverted. 1: Inverted H&S = Left Shoulder > Head < Right Shoulder 2: Left Shoulder ≈ Right Shoulder The first and second minima are followed by two maxima, the line connecting these two-point form the "neckline". Price breaking the neckline upward is a bullish signal (note that a low volume breakout is not indicative of a potential failure). Inverted H&S on MTSI daily. 3. Complex Variations Bulkowski presents two complex variations to the H&S and inverted H&S patterns. These complex variations are similar to the regular ones but have the particularity of having multiple shoulders on each side or multiple heads. Inverted complex H&S on ARKW daily. 4. Measure Rule The measure rule for head and shoulders formations allows the determination for the level of taking profits and stop losses after a breakout of the neckline. In the case of a regular H&S, the take profit should be set at the breakout point minus the height between the formation head value and the neckline value where the head is located. The same applies to inverted H&S, the take profit should be set at the breakout point plus the height between the formation neckline value where the head is located and the formation head value. In the case of a complex dual-head H&S formation, the head value that should be selected is the lowest one. 5. Observations Head and shoulders formations can sometimes be encountered within diamonds formations. Osler identifies head-and-shoulders trading as a type of noise trading and points out that the immediate price effect of head-and-shoulders trades disappears slowly but completely over the subsequent two weeks (2). Caginalp and Balevonich found that head and shoulders patterns can be obtained as a consequence of a single group of investors with identical motivations and assessment of the value of the financial instrument (3). 7. References (1) Bulkowski, T. N. (2021). Encyclopedia of chart patterns. John Wiley & Sons. (2) Osler, C. (1998). Identifying Noise Traders: The Head-and-Shoulders Pattern in U.S. Equities. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper Series. (3) Caginalp, G., & Balevonich, D. (2003). A Theoretical Foundation for Technical Analysis. Capital Markets: Market Microstructure eJournal.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by LuxAlgo
9
Head and Shoulders - "Learn More Earn More" with us Head and Shoulders Definition: A head and shoulders pattern is also a trend reversal formation. It is formed by a peak (left shoulder), followed by a higher peak (head), and then another lower pea k (right shoulder). A “Neckline” is drawn by connecting the lowest points of the two troughs. Neckline support does not need to be strictly horizontal. . This illustrates that the upward trend is coming to an end. . When a Head and Shoulders formation is seen in an uptrend , it signifies a major reversal . . The pattern is confirmed once the price breaches the neckline support In this example, we can easily see the head and shoulders pattern. How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern: ENTRY: we put an entry order below the neckline. TARGET: We can also calculate a target by measuring the high point of the head to the neckline. This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline.
Education
by ForecastCity
12
Trading The Head And Shoulders Chart Pattern Although our basic stock trading methodology is based on trend following, there are certain types of technical chart patterns we also trade. Of these, the head and shoulders is one of the most reliable and profitable types of technical trade setups. In this article, we will discuss how to identify the chart pattern and capitalize on it. Let’s begin by looking at a basic diagram of a head and shoulders pattern: A head and shoulders pattern (hereafter “H&S”) is a bearish reversal chart pattern that often marks the top of an uptrend and predicts a selloff in a particular index, stock, or ETF. The left shoulder and head are formed as the stock is rallying and does not indicate anything bearish. However, once the neckline is formed on the right side of the head, that is our first warning point that the buying momentum has slowed because, rather than setting a higher low on the previous rally, the stock sells off all the way down to the prior low. When this occurs, people who bought near the top (the head) are now trapped in the long position. Then, as another wave of buyers attempt to rally the stock, the people who are trapped long at the top sell into the rally in an attempt to just come close to breaking even. This weakens the stock even more, which prevents the achievement of a higher high and also forms the right shoulder. This usually marks a break of the uptrend as the stock comes back down once again and tests the prior low. At this point, everyone who bought on the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder are now trapped and out of the money in their positions. So guess what happens? They begin to sell, which causes a break of the neckline, which subsequently causes a rapid and often volatile collapse of the price due to selling momentum. When is the right time to short sell this pattern? Although the most ideal entry point for short selling a H&S pattern can be debated, we prefer to enter after the right shoulder has been formed and starts back down to the neckline. If you enter before the right shoulder is formed, there is not enough confirmation that there really is a H&S pattern being formed, so you will often stop yourself out by short selling too soon. On the other hand, if you wait for the neckline to break before selling short, your entry price is not that great and can often result in getting shaken out of the position right before it cracks, or missing the selloff altogether. However, by selling short after the right shoulder has been formed and the price starts coming back down, you are essentially selling into strength, which gives you a lower risk and higher profit entry point. If the H&S fails and does not follow through, your losses are also reduced because you shorted at a decent price. Remember that the goal of the best stock trading strategies are not to squeeze every single dollar of profit out of a trade, but rather to catch a “meat of the move” with minimal risk. When a H&S drops below the neckline (which is sometimes ascending or descending), the predicted selloff amount is usually equal to the distance from the top of the head down to the neckline. So, if the price at the top of the head is $100 and the price at the neckline is $90, the predicted drop would be equal to $10 (100 – 90) below the neckline. Since the neckline is $90, the predicted selloff is down to $80. This is a guideline you can use to determine a target price for where to take trading profits on this short setup. Failed head and shoulders patterns Although H&S patterns follow-through frequently, there are occasions when the chart pattern fails, meaning that it never drops below the neckline after forming the right shoulder. A failed H&S pattern occurs when the price rallies above the high of the head after forming the right shoulder. When the price rallies above the head, make sure you quickly cut your losses if you are short because the move is usually strong if there were enough buyers to propel through all that resistance and set a new high. After getting through the resistance of the H&S pattern, the failed short setup often becomes a great long play. Here is an example of a failed H&S: Using volume as a confirming indicator One indicator you can use to assist in determining the probability of whether or not the H&S will follow-through is volume. As with every other type of chart pattern, volume is the most critical type of technical analysis, and this pattern is no different. Specifically, what we look for is lighter volume on the right shoulder than on the left shoulder. If volume on the formation of the right shoulder is significantly less than the volume that formed the left shoulder, it indicates there are less buyers to rally the stock, which increases the probability of coming back down to test the neckline and eventually breaking below it. Conversely, increasing volume on the right shoulder is often a warning sign that the pattern may not follow-through and we will need to cover our shorts if the right shoulder ends up breaking above the head. What is the time frame of this technical pattern? It is important to realize that the amount of time it takes a stock or ETF to complete the breakdown of the H&S pattern is largely dependent on the time frame of which the setup occurs. For example, a H&S pattern that sets up on a 5-minute intraday chart will usually follow through and complete the selloff within a few hours. However, if you see a H&S on a sixty-minute chart, it will probably take several days or even a week to complete the predicted drop. A H&S on a daily chart will usually take weeks or even months to follow-through. Therefore, if you see a H&S pattern on a daily chart, it’s typically not as easy as blindly going short unless you are the type of trader who can stomach volatility. If you sell short a H&S on a daily chart, you will probably stop yourself out unless you allow the setup a significant amount of time and price volatility before it follows-through. Because of this, we prefer to trade H&S patterns that occur on shorter time frames such as 15 or 60 minute charts. These make for ideal swing trades on the short side, and are often the source of short setups for the detailed short-term ETF and stock picks in our trading newsletter.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by IgorPorokh
2