Trading with RSI: The Bad, The Good and Even BetterIn this video I explain how to use RSI (Relative Strength Index) to make trading decisions. You'll learn how to properly use RSI oversold condition, combining low timeframe price action signals with high level context analysis.
Besides of explaining three different strategies (the bad, the good and even better) I'll do back-testing on historical data to demonstrate how those strategies translate into real trading results.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Index
Indicators for trading using Bill Williams' Profitunity strategyI published 3 indicators for trading using Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy. For each indicator, I have added a visual and detailed description in English and Russian. In this post I will briefly describe these indicators and how I use them together.
AFDSA indicator (Alligator + Fractals + Divergent & Squat Bars + Signal Alerts)
Includes Williams Alligator, Williams Fractals, Divergent Bars, Market Facilitation Index, Highest and Lowest Bars, maximum or minimum peak of the Awesome Oscillator, and signal alerts based on Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy:
Bullish and Bearish Divergent Bar Signal + Squat Bar + Green Bar + Fake Bar + Awesome Oscillator Color Change + AO Divergence.
Crossing the green line (Lips) of an open Alligator.
Formation of a fractal.
Signal about the breakdown of the last upper or lower fractal.
Signal about the appearance of a new maximum or minimum peak of AO in the interval of 140 bars from the last bar.
I also added an Alligator display for the higher timeframe, for example, if the chart timeframe is 1 hour, then the higher timeframe will automatically be 4 hours, if the chart timeframe is 4 hours, then the higher timeframe will be 1 day, etc.
AOE Oscillator (Awesome Oscillator + Bars count lines + EMA Line)
Includes the Awesome Oscillator with two vertical lines at a distance of 100 and 140 bars from the last bar to determine the third Elliott wave by the maximum peak of AO in the interval from 100 to 140 bars according to Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy. Additionally, a faster EMA line is displayed.
I also added display of the AO line for the lower timeframe instead of the EMA line if the Moving Average Line values (method, length and source) are equal to the Awesome Oscillator values in the indicator settings. For example, if the chart timeframe is 1 day, then the lower timeframe will automatically be 4 hours, if the chart timeframe is 4 hours, then the lower timeframe will be 1 hour, etc.
VBCHL indicator (Visible bars count on chart + highest/lowest bars, max/min AO)
The indicator displays the number of visible bars on the screen, including the prices of the highest and lowest bars, the maximum or minimum value of the Awesome Oscillator. The values change dynamically when scrolling or changing the scale of the chart, but with a delay of several seconds, so this feature is included in a separate indicator so as not to slow down the work of other indicators.
Indicator settings
In the AFDSA indicator I use the following settings:
By default, the Squat Bar is colored blue, and all other bars are colored to match the Awesome Oscillator color, except for the Fake bars, which are colored with a lighter AO color. But I also enable the display of "Green" Divergent bars in the "Green Bars > Show" field.
I enable the display of Alligator for higher timeframes in the "Alligator for higher timeframe > Enable" field.
In the indicator style settings, I disable the display of the highest and lowest bars, maximum and minimum AO peak labels, because these labels are also displayed by the VBCHL indicator depending on the number of visible bars in the chart window.
Only after opening a position, I enable all additional alerts in the “Enable all additional alerts” field (after changing this field, you need to re-create the alert for the current chart): crossing the green line of an open Alligator, formation of a fractal, appearance of a new maximum or minimum AO peak.
In the settings of the AOE oscillator, I enable the display of the AO line for the lower timeframe instead of the EMA line, setting the same values in the fields for the Moving Average Line (method, length and source) and Awesome Oscillator.
In the VBCHL indicator settings, I only enable the simple display text style for labels in the "Simple display text style for labels" field.
As a result, when analyzing the current chart, I immediately see all the signals on the chart, the location of the bars relative to the Alligator on the higher timeframe and changes in the Awesome Oscillator on the lower timeframe. And thanks to the VBCHL indicator, I quickly select the desired timeframe for analyzing the 5-wave Elliott impulse, focusing on the interval of 140 bars, and immediately see whether there is divergence between the maximum AO peak and the following lower AO peak in this interval.
Trend Trading Strategy for the Heiken Ashi Algo v6Knowing when the RSI and price are in a ranging phase even in the short term can be a difficult process.
You are either #Ranging #bullish or #bearish. At least in the Algo v6 you can get a clear vision of exactly whats happening.
In this video im going to give you a VERY simple strategy on:
1. How to know if the RSI and price are ranging
2. When do i break away from Ranges
3. Am I trending
4. Im trending but whats my confluence to take a long or short
5. Is my range getting bigger or smaller
Enjoy this quick vid and ask questions below.
Thanks everyone.
Price overextension: misconceptions and common mistakesPrice overextension remains a widely misunderstood concept in trading, causing both novice and seasoned traders to make errors in their decision-making. This misinterpretation often leads to placing trades in the wrong direction or, equally detrimental, overlooking profitable opportunities.
In essence, price overextension signifies that the market has undergone a rapid and excessive movement in one direction. Such movements are often perceived as unsustainable. Numerous indicators, such as Stochastic, RSI, Bollinger Bands and many other, attempt to identify such "abnormal" price movements so traders could capitalize on them. Despite variations in statistical methods and calculations, their common goal is to detect instances where price went or down too much and is likely to reverse.
In this discussion, I will use Relative-Strength-Index (RSI), a popular indicator, to convey my perspective on price overextension. While some traders argue for customization, the elusive question of "how" often remains unanswered. From my experience, there are no universally perfect settings that consistently yield optimal results.
I’ll draw my examples from the recent SPY bar chart (February 2024).
The first misconception
The first misconception is that if price is overextended it is time to immediately start looking for a trade in the opposite direction. The most important phrase here is “start looking”. Many beginners misinterpret this as an invitation to commence trading, leading to the premature initiation of short positions during perceived market "overextension" and vice versa.
So, the first and foremost important advice is to never try guessing top/bottom based on one indicator or gut feeling. Simple as it seems I remember many times breaking this rule myself because the temptation was too strong. It rarely ended up well.
On the graph, I've highlighted three recent instances where the RSI exceeded 70 (indicating overbought conditions). What stands out is that, following each occurrence, the price surged significantly before consolidation set in, inflicting losses upon short traders.
Even experienced traders, who look for confluence of signals, may fall into this trap. In the first two examples, bearish candlestick patterns failed to prevent subsequent price increases. Most likely, those candles were “created” by weak hands traders, who tried to short market, while it was actually controlled by strong buyers.
These instances could have been avoided by considering the daily graph, revealing a robust bullish context – price was in an uptrend, one-time-framing up on weekly. There were couple of moments when bears gained short term control (Tuesdays 13th and 20th) but they never could take the previous week low; bulls always confirmed their control.
The second advice is to avoid trading against higher level context. While sometimes those trades might work the result is usually mediocre and most of the times you’ll simply lose. If you really wish to trade against context you need to construct a solid dossier of evidence, supporting your trade.
The second misconception
What is the second misconception? It is that when price overextended it is not time to go with the market. In this scenario, traders refrain from initiating long trades after RSI indicates overbought conditions, potentially causing them to miss profitable opportunities. It might not hurt your account but who likes missing good opportunities?
Surprisingly, seizing these trades correctly is not much harder than any other trade. It simply requires prudence and discipline and getting rid-off cognitive biases. For example, in the second example on the graph a trader could win up to 1% if he played off gap-up open after seeing that the new price has found acceptance.
Conclusion
It is possible to build a profitable strategy that relies on “price overextension” concept. However, it demands more than a cursory examination of a single indicator and adherence to textbook candle patterns. Personally, I reached a point where I entirely abandoned the use of RSI and similar tools because, instead of providing clarity, they seemed to cloud my thinking.
Opting for a more effective approach involves keenly observing actual market behavior, which often defies conventional expectations. Study of high-level contexts, understanding key levels, and discerning confluence in price action signals on lower timeframes consistently prove invaluable. This method helps steer clear of common pitfalls and contributes to enhancing overall trading results.
Beating the S&P500 (SPX) Buy&Hold strategy by 16 timesS&P500 (SPX) strategy using Stochastic RSI Min-Max, normalized Volatility and Trailing Stop signals, beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 16 times
Embarking on the quest to time the market accurately, the 'Holy Grail' of strategies, led me to create a script to approach this goal. Unlike other strategies that I tested, this one not only surpasses the long-term S&P500 Buy&Hold approach but does so by a remarkable 16.38 times!
Initially, I employed an A.I. program based on an LSTM Neural Network using TensorFlow. Despite achieving a 55% next-day prediction accuracy for short/long positions, I sought improvement using a heuristic pine-scripting approach, incorporating stochastic RSI oscillators, moving averages, and volatility signals.
With default parameters, this strategy, freely available as "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" delivered a staggering 2,663,001% profit since February 1871. In the same period, the Buy&Hold strategy "only" generated 162,599% profit. Picture this: a $1,000 investment in 1871 would now be worth $26,630,014 by February 2024. Check it out for yourself loading this strategy.
The script operates as a Stochastic RSI Min-Max script, automatically generating buy and sell alerts on the S&P500 SPX. What sets it apart? The strategy detects "corrections," minimizes losses using Trailing Stop and Moving Average parameters, and strategically re-enters the market after detecting bottoms using tuned Stochastic RSI signals and normalized Volatility thresholds.
Tailor its parameters to your preference, use it for strategic exits and entries, or stick to the Buy&Hold strategy and start new buy trades at regular intervals using buy signals only. In the pursuit of minimizing losses, the script has learned the effectiveness of a 9% trailing stop on trades. As you can clearly see on the upper graph (revolving around 100), the average overall green surfaces (profits) of all trades are much bigger than the average red surfaces (losses). This follows Warren Buffets first rule of trading to "Never lose money" and thus minimizing losses.
Update: Advanced S&P500 Stochastic RSI Min-Max Buy/Sell Alert Generator
I have also created an Alerter script based on the same engine as this script, which auto-generates buy and sell alert signals (via e-mail, in-app push-notifications, pop-ups etc.).
The script is currently fine-tuned for the S&P500 SPX tracker, but parameters can be fine-tuned upon request for other trackers or stocks.
If you are interested in this alerter-version script or fine-tuning other trackers, please drop me a message or mail xplorr at live dot com.
How to use this Strategy?
Select the SPX (S&P500) graph and set the value to "Day" values (top) and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right).
Select in the Indicators the "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" script and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right)
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values "Percent Profitable" and "Net Profit" (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters).
How to interpret the graphical information?
In the SPX graph, you will see the Buy(Blue) and Sell(Purple) labels created by the strategy.
The green/red graph below shows the accumulated profit/loss in % of to the initial buy value of the trade (it revolves around 100%, 110 means 10% profit, 95 means 5% loss)
The small purple blocks indicate out-of-trade periods
The green graph below the zero line is the stochastic RSI buy signal. You can set a threshold (green horizontal line). The vertical green lines show minima below that threshold and indicate possible buy signals.
The blue graph above the zero line is the normalized volatility signal. You can set a threshold (blue horizontal line) affecting buy signals.
The red graph above the zero line is the slower stochastic RSI sell signal. You can set a threshold (red horizontal line). The red areas indicate values above that threshold.
However real exits are triggered if close values are crossing below the trailing stop value or optionally when the fast moving average crosses under the slow one. The red areas above the threshold are rather indicative to show that the SPX is expensive and not ideal to enter. Please note that in bullish periods the red line and areas can stay at a permanent high value, so it is not ideal to use as a strict sell signal. However, when it drops below zero and the green vertical lines appear, these are strong buy signals together with a high volatility.
These Parameters can be changed
Buy Stochastic Lookback
Buy Stochastic Smoother
Buy Threshold
Buy Only After Fall
Minimum % Fall
Sell Stochastic Lookback
Sell Stochastic Smoother
Sell Threshold
Sell Only With Profit
Minimum % Profit
Use Sell MA
Fast MA Sell
Slow MA Sell
MA Sell Threshold
Use Buy Volatility
Volatility Smoother
Volatility Threshold
Use Trailing Stop
Use ATR (iso of a fixed percentage for the trailing stop)
ATR Lookback
Trailing Stop Factor(or fixed percentage if "use ATR" is false)
Trailing Stop Smoother
Important : optimizing and using these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
2024 US Recession | Key Factors2000 DOT-COM CRISIS
The dot-com crisis, also known as the "dot-com bubble" or "dot-com crash," was a period of economic turbulence that affected the technology and telecommunications sectors in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Here are some key points:
Euphoria Phase: In the 1990s, there was a boom in the technology and dot-com industry fueled by irrational investor euphoria. Many companies secured significant funding, even if they had weak or nonexistent business models.
Excessive Valuations: Valuations of technology companies skyrocketed, often based on exaggerated growth projections and unrealistic expectations. This led to rampant speculation in financial markets.
Bubble and Collapse: In 2000, the dot-com bubble began to burst. Many investors realized that numerous technology companies were unable to generate profits in the short term. This triggered a massive sell-off of stocks and a collapse in tech stock prices.
Economic Impacts: The crisis had widespread economic impacts, with the loss of value in many technology stocks and the bankruptcy of numerous companies. Investors suffered heavy losses, and this had repercussions on the entire stock market.
Economic Lessons: The dot-com crisis led to a reassessment of investment practices and taught lessons about the importance of carefully analyzing companies' fundamentals and avoiding investments based solely on speculative expectations.
Following this crisis, the technology sector experienced a correction but also contributed to shaping the industry in a more sustainable way. Many companies that survived the crisis implemented more realistic and sustainable strategies, contributing to the subsequent growth and development of the technology sector.
2007-2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS
The 2007-2008 financial crisis was a widespread event that had a significant impact on the global economy. Here are some key points:
Origins in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: The crisis originated in the U.S. real estate sector, particularly in subprime mortgages (high-risk). An increase in mortgage defaults led to severe losses for financial institutions holding securities tied to these loans.
Spread of Financial Problems: Losses in the mortgage sector spread globally, involving international financial institutions. Lack of transparency in complex financial products contributed to the crisis's diffusion.
Bank Failures and Government Bailouts: Several major financial institutions either failed or were on the brink of failure. Government interventions, including bailouts and nationalizations, were necessary to prevent the collapse of the financial system.
Stock Market Crashes: Global stock markets experienced significant crashes. Investors lost confidence in financial institutions, leading to a flight from risk and an economic contraction.
Impact on the Real Economy: The financial crisis directly impacted the real economy. The ensuing global recession resulted in the loss of millions of jobs, decreased industrial production, and a contraction in consumer spending.
Financial Sector Reforms: The crisis prompted a reevaluation of financial regulations. In response, many nations implemented reforms to enhance financial oversight and mitigate systemic risks.
Lessons Learned: The financial crisis underscored the need for more effective risk management, increased transparency in financial markets, and better monitoring of financial institutions.
The 2007-2008 financial crisis had a lasting impact on the approach to economic and financial policies, leading to greater awareness of systemic risks and the adoption of measures to prevent future crises.
2019 PRE COVID
In 2019, I closely observed a significant event in the financial markets: the inversion of the yield curve, with 3-month yields surpassing those at 2, 5, and 10 years. This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, is generally considered an advanced signal of a potential economic recession and has often been linked to various financial crises in the past. The inversion of the yield curve occurred when short-term government bond yields, such as those at 3 months, exceeded those at long-term, like 2, 5, and 10 years. This situation raised concerns among investors and analysts, as historically, similar inversions have been followed by periods of economic contraction. Subsequently, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic occurred, originating in late 2019 in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China. The virus was identified as a new strain of coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2. The global spread of the virus was rapid throughout 2020, causing a worldwide pandemic. Countries worldwide implemented lockdown and social distancing measures to contain the virus's spread. The economic impact of the pandemic was significant globally, with sectors such as tourism, aviation, and hospitality particularly affected, leading to business closures and job losses. Efforts to develop a vaccine for COVID-19 were intense, and in 2020, several vaccines were approved, contributing to efforts to contain the virus's spread. In 2021, the Delta variant of the virus emerged as a highly transmissible variant, leading to new increases in cases in many regions worldwide. Subsequent variants continued to impact pandemic management. Government and health authorities' responses varied from country to country, with measures ranging from lockdowns and mass vaccinations to specific crisis management strategies. The pandemic highlighted the need for international cooperation, robust healthcare systems, and global preparedness to address future pandemics. In summary, the observation of the yield curve inversion in 2019 served as a predictive element, suggesting imminent economic challenges, and the subsequent pandemic confirmed the complexity and interconnectedness of factors influencing global economic health.
2024 Outlook
The outlook for 2024 presents significant economic challenges, outlined by a series of critical indicators. At the core of these dynamics are the interest rates, which have reached exceptionally high levels, fueling an atmosphere of uncertainty and impacting access to credit and spending by businesses and consumers. One of the primary concerns is the inversion of the yield curve, manifested between July and September 2022. This phenomenon, often associated with periods of economic recession, has heightened alarm about the stability of the economic environment. The upward break of the 3-month curve compared to the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year curves has raised questions about the future trajectory of the economy. Simultaneously, housing prices in the United States have reached historic highs, raising concerns about a potential real estate bubble. This situation prompts questions about the sustainability of the real estate market and the risks associated with a potential collapse in housing prices. Geopolitical instability further contributes to the complexity of the economic landscape. With ongoing conflicts in Russia, the Red Sea, Palestine, and escalating tensions in Taiwan, investors are compelled to assess the potential impact of these events on global economic stability. The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Composite Index, showing an upward trend since December 2021, suggests an increase in financial difficulties among consumers. Similarly, the charge-off rate on credit card loans for all commercial banks, increasing since the first quarter of 2022, reflects growing financial pressure on consumers and the banking sector. In this context, it is essential to adopt a prudent approach based on a detailed analysis of economic and financial data. The ability to adapt to changing market conditions becomes crucial for individuals, businesses, and financial institutions. Continuous monitoring of the evolution of economic and geopolitical indicators will be decisive in understanding and addressing the challenges that 2024 may bring.
How RSI Alerts Can Supercharge Your Long-Term Crypto PortfolioBuilding a long-term portfolio demands a strategic approach that goes beyond random buys and impulsive decisions.
Instead, savvy investors employ tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify advantageous entry points and navigate the market cycles effectively.
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Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to harness RSI alerts to fortify your long-term crypto holdings.
Step 1: Spotting Entry Opportunities with RSI < 35
When aiming for long-term crypto accumulation, the goal is to buy assets at opportune prices. Setting up your charts with the RSI indicator and adjusting the lower band to 35 enables you to pinpoint instances where cryptocurrencies in your portfolio might have experienced an unwarranted dip. This can be a golden opportunity to acquire assets for the long run, aligning with the principle of buying low.
Step 2: Steering Clear of Overbought Zones with RSI > 70
Conversely, an RSI reading surpassing 70 signals potential overbought conditions. In such instances, it's prudent to exercise caution. Holding off on new purchases during these periods or even considering exiting certain positions that have seen significant price surges allows you to safeguard your returns. Converting gains into stablecoins during overbought phases enhances liquidity, positioning you strategically for future opportunities.
Step 3: Confirm with Other Indicators & DYOR
RSI functions most effectively when complemented by other indicators. Incorporating tools like Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, and MACD provides a more comprehensive view of market conditions. Remember, thorough research is crucial. Rely on multiple indicators to reinforce your decision-making process and mitigate risks associated with single-point analyses.
Step 4: Get Timely RSI Alerts On Your Email & TradingView App
Time is of the essence in the volatile crypto market. Instead of constantly monitoring prices across various platforms, set up RSI alerts on TradingView to receive timely notifications. This ensures you don’t miss critical market movements and can respond promptly to favorable conditions or potential risks.
How to Create RSI Alerts on TradingView
Open TradingView: Log in to your TradingView account.
Select the Chart: Open the chart of the cryptocurrency you're monitoring.
Add RSI Indicator: Click on "Indicators" at the top, search for RSI "Relative Strength Index", and add it to your chart.
Set RSI Levels: Adjust RSI levels by clicking on the RSI label on the chart, then edit the Upper and Lower Band levels to your preferred values (e.g., 35 for Lower Band, 70 for Upper Band).
Create Alert: Click on the alarm bell icon at the top of the chart, then select "Add Alert." Choose the condition (crossing above/below RSI level), set the desired RSI level, and customize the notification settings.
Save Alert: Confirm and save your alert. You’ll now receive notifications via email or within the TradingView platform when the specified RSI conditions are met.
Effectively utilizing RSI alerts is a game-changer for long-term crypto investors. By intelligently identifying entry points, avoiding overbought conditions, confirming signals with other indicators, and staying informed with timely alerts, you position yourself for success in the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies. Enhance your portfolio strategy with RSI – a tool that brings precision and efficiency to your crypto investment journey.
Tips on Adjusting the RSI (Part 2) Although the standard setting for the RSI is 70 (overbought) and 30 (oversold), I prefer to adjust the levels to 80 and 20. The purpose of this is to identify the extremely overbought/oversold regions.
In addition to adjusting the levels, I would pay attention to the chart when the RSI enters in the overbought/oversold region (but would hold back on entering a trade)
I would only enter a trade when the RSI turns down/up from the overbought/oversold region.
This would signal that the price is likely to fall/rise as the RSI reverses from the extremes and back within range.
Learning to use the RSI (Part 1)The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a popular momentum oscillator used in technical analysis to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the market. The RSI is measured on a scale from 0 to 100,
RSI values above 70 are often considered overbought, suggesting that the price may be due for a reversal or pullback.
RSI values below 30 are often considered oversold, indicating that the price may be due for a bounce or recovery.
A common mistake most traders will make is to assume that once RSI signals an overbought/oversold condition, the price should drop/rise, hence leading to a sell/buy decision.
In the 2 examples highlighted (solid blue lines), you will notice that although RSI signaled an overbought/oversold condition, the price continued to climb/drop despite being overbought/oversold.
Remember: Prices can be overbought/oversold for an extended period of time
When using any indicator, always remind yourself of what it is measuring and remember that it is just math (not magic). The indicator is supposed to help quantify and help you see things clearer on the chart (rather than numbers).
Check out Part 2 for Tips on Adjusting the RSI
Super Swing Strategy - Bollinger Bands, RSI, and ADX Strategy"Super Swing Strategy" - Bollinger Bands, RSI, and ADX Strategy
Indicators Used:
- Bollinger Bands
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Average Directional Index (ADX)
Bollinger Bands for volatility, RSI for overbought and oversold conditions, and ADX for strength of the trend.
How it Works:
Add Bollinger Bands, a 14-period RSI, and a 14-period ADX to your chart.
When the price touches the upper Bollinger Band, the RSI shows overbought conditions (above 70), and the ADX is above 20, it's a potential bearish signal.
A bullish signal occurs when the price touches the lower Bollinger Band, the RSI shows oversold conditions (below 30), and the ADX is above 20.
You can use additional indicators or price action analysis to confirm signals.
Stock HeatmapHave you ever heard of a stock heatmap? 📈 It's an innovative and visually appealing tool used in the world of finance to analyze and interpret market data. Let's explore what it is and how it can be useful in your trading journey.
🌡️ What is a Stock Heatmap?
A stock heatmap is a graphical representation of a large set of stocks or securities, where each individual stock is color-coded based on its performance or specific metrics. It provides a visual snapshot of the entire market or a specific sector, helping traders quickly identify trends, strengths, and weaknesses.
🔍 Utilizing Heatmaps
1️⃣ Market Analysis: Heatmaps allow you to assess the overall market sentiment and identify which stocks are performing well and which ones are underperforming.
2️⃣ Sector Analysis: By using sector-specific heatmaps, you can easily spot strong sectors and weak sectors, helping you make informed decisions about sector rotation strategies.
3️⃣ Stock Selection: Heatmaps can assist in narrowing down potential trading opportunities by highlighting stocks with significant price movements, volume surges, or specific technical indicators.
4️⃣ Risk Management: Heatmaps help you assess the risk-reward profile of different stocks, enabling you to prioritize stocks that align with your risk tolerance and investment goals.
Remember, a stock heatmap should be used as a complementary tool alongside other fundamental and technical analysis techniques. It provides a dynamic and intuitive way to visualize market data, aiding in decision-making and identifying potential trading opportunities.
Mastering the VIX on TradingViewThe VIX, also known as the CBOE Volatility Index, is a widely-used financial instrument used to measure market volatility and investor sentiment. In this article, we will explore how to use the VIX on TradingView to improve your trading strategies.
Before we dive into how to use the VIX, let's first understand what it is and how it works. The VIX is based on the S&P 500 index options, and measures the implied volatility of those options over the next 30 days. Essentially, the VIX provides a gauge of how much the market is expected to move over the next month.
Now, let's discuss how to use the VIX on TradingView. To begin, open up the TradingView platform and search for the VIX symbol, which is typically denoted as VIX. Once you have located the VIX, add it to your watchlist and open up the chart.
On the chart, you will notice that the VIX moves inversely to the S&P 500. When the S&P 500 goes down, the VIX goes up, indicating that market volatility is increasing. Conversely, when the S&P 500 goes up, the VIX goes down, indicating that market volatility is decreasing.
So how can we use the VIX to improve our trading strategies? One strategy is to use the VIX as a hedging tool. For example, if you have a portfolio of stocks and are concerned about a potential market downturn, you could buy the VIX to protect yourself against losses. This is because the VIX tends to increase in value when the market is experiencing volatility.
Another way to use the VIX is as a contrarian indicator. When the VIX is at a very low level, it may indicate that investors are overly complacent and that the market may be due for a correction. On the other hand, when the VIX is at a very high level, it may indicate that investors are overly fearful and that the market may be due for a rebound.
In conclusion, the VIX is a powerful tool that can be used to measure market volatility and investor sentiment. By understanding how the VIX works and using it in conjunction with other technical indicators, you can improve your trading strategies and better navigate the unpredictable world of finance. Remember, always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Relative Strength Index/RSI Made SimpleThe RSI (Relative Strength Index) is like a tool that helps people who buy and sell stocks and other things to figure out how strong the price of something is. It works by looking at the prices of that thing over a certain period of time, like 14 days, and then putting those prices on a scale from 0 to 100.
🔸When the RSI is high, like over 70, it means the price has gone up a lot and might be too high. When the RSI is low, like under 30, it means the price has gone down a lot and might be too low.
But just looking at the RSI by itself is not enough.
While many traders do use the RSI to buy at the 30 level and sell above the 70 level, this is not the only way to use the indicator. (As shown below)
🔸The RSI should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions. In fact, relying solely on these levels can lead to missed opportunities and suboptimal trading decisions.
🔸It's also worth noting that the RSI can be used to identify bullish and bearish trends. When the RSI is above 50, it is considered bullish, indicating that the market is trending upwards. When the RSI is below 50, it is considered bearish, indicating that the market is trending downwards.
🔸While the 70 and 30 levels are popular levels to buy and sell, traders can also use other points based on how price reacts at those levels. For example, if the RSI reaches 80, it may indicate an especially strong upward trend, while a drop to 20 may indicate an especially strong downward trend. Traders should use their own judgment and analysis to determine which levels are most appropriate for their trading strategy. You can also find that as the name suggest (Relative Strength) traders should look for levels in price action where there is a strong reaction and then check to see at what level on the RSI this occurred because it might happen again once we got to that RSI value. (As seen below )
So as you can see in the image above you do not need to wait for price to go to levels 80 or 20 in order to look for reactions you can look at how price has reacted at previous levels before and monitor those levels in the future.
Finally lets talk about divergence.
🔸RSI divergence is a trading strategy that involves looking for differences between the movement of the price of an asset and the movement of the RSI indicator.
When there is RSI divergence, it means that the price of an asset is moving in a different direction than the RSI indicator, which can signal a potential change in trend.
There are two types of RSI divergence: bullish and bearish. Bullish divergence occurs when the price of an asset is making lower lows, but the RSI indicator is making higher lows. This can suggest that the price of the asset is oversold and may be due for a rebound.
Conversely, bearish divergence occurs when the price of an asset is making higher highs, but the RSI indicator is making lower highs. This can suggest that the price of the asset is overbought and may be due for a correction.
Traders can use RSI divergence to help them make trading decisions. For example, if they see bullish divergence, they may consider buying the asset, while if they see bearish divergence, they may consider selling the asset. However, traders should always use RSI divergence in conjunction with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions.
Example is shown below:
🔸Settings of the RSI:
Traders can customize the settings of the RSI to suit their trading style and preferences. They can adjust the number of periods used in the calculation, which can range from as low as 2 to as high as 200 or more, depending on the timeframe being analyzed.
In addition to the default settings, traders can also adjust the overbought and oversold levels of the RSI. By default, the RSI is considered overbought when it is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30. Traders can adjust these levels to suit their trading style and the specific asset being analyzed.
Traders can also add other indicators on top of the RSI to help them analyze the market. For example, they may add a moving average to the RSI to help them identify trend direction and potential areas of support and resistance.
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Also keep in mind that the RSI can be used as a reversal tool and also a trend trading tool. For example, when the RSI reaches extreme levels of overbought or oversold, it can signal a potential reversal in the price trend. When the RSI reaches these levels, traders can look for other confirming indicators or price action to help them decide whether to enter a trade in the opposite direction.
On the other hand, as a trend trading tool, traders can use the RSI to identify the strength of a trend and to help them decide when to enter or exit a trade. When the RSI is above 50, it can indicate a bullish trend, and when it is below 50, it can indicate a bearish trend. Traders can use the RSI to help them identify potential areas of support and resistance within the trend and to enter trades in the direction of the trend.
It's important to note that traders should not rely solely on the RSI to make trading decisions. The RSI should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as moving averages, and fundamental analysis to get a complete picture of the market. By using the RSI as both a reversal tool and a trend trading tool, traders can better identify potential trading opportunities and make more informed trading decisions.
DAY TRADING 101: How to Get StartedHello guys! Day trading is a popular way for traders to make money by buying and selling assets within the same trading day. However, before you begin day trading, it's important to understand the basics and develop a solid trading strategy. In this post, we'll cover the basics of day trading and provide some tips on how to get started.
First, it's important to understand the different types of securities that you can day trade. Some popular options include stocks, options, futures, and currencies. Each of these securities has its own unique characteristics and requires different strategies, so it's important to choose the one that best fits your goals and risk tolerance.
Next, you need to develop a trading plan . Your plan should include your trading strategy, the securities you plan to trade, and your risk management techniques. It's also important to set realistic goals and be prepared to stick to them.
Once you have a trading plan in place, you need to practice . You can do this by using a simulation or paper trading account. This will allow you to test your trading strategy and learn from your mistakes before you start risking real money.
Another important thing to consider is your risk management . This means understanding the level of risk you're willing to take and setting stop-losses and profit-taking orders to protect your capital. It's also important to maintain a proper risk-reward ratio, which means that the potential profit should be larger than the potential loss.
In addition to the above, it's crucial to keep an eye on the market and news , as they can greatly impact your trades, so it's essential to stay updated with the latest news and trends. Finally, keep in mind that day trading requires discipline and patience, so be prepared to put in the time and effort to become a successful trader.
To sum it up, day trading can be a great way to make money, but it's important to understand the basics and develop a solid trading strategy. Additionally, you should practice with a simulation or paper trading account, have a proper risk management, stay informed and be prepared to put in the time and effort.
Which type of trading do you prefer?
bullish vs bearish conditions for spxspx could have bull or bear technical numbers on my chart depending on the path these indicators take. if they go up with the price thats bullish, and if they move lower with the price thats bearish. im bearish on touches of the upper levels marked out as the index rises or breaks of lower levels while it sinks, and im bullish on support from lower levels or breaks of higher levels if the index bounces. pivot around low anchored vwap. anchor vwap to top for dips, and bottom for rips.
🔍What you need to know about the DXY index🤔🔍 DXY INDEX (USDX) displays the value of USD against a basket of six foreign currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF.
This index is calculated on the basis of the weighted average ratio of USD to six currencies.
➡️ EUR —> 57,6%
➡️ JPY —> 13,6%
➡️ GBP —> 11,9%
➡️ CAD —> 9,1%
➡️ SEK —> 4,2%
➡️ CHF —> 3,6%
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❗️ Interesting note ❗️
Given the fact that the EUR is included in the DXY (the largest weight in the index, so it is not surprising that the DXY and EURUSD are highly correlated), the dollar index is the currency of the member countries of the EUR zone.
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The index was created by JPMorgan Chase, which officially released this trading instrument to the market in 1973. The level of 100 was taken as the base value. The index was not subject to any changes, except for the introduction of EUR in Europe.
DXY allows you to form an idea of the value of the USD and its weight in the world. In addition, this index may signal a recession in the world: the rapid growth of DXY indicates that market participants prefer to withdraw their investments in cash, i.e. in USD, and in moments of economic instability, buy US bonds with these USD.
🔴 Thus, the index is used as a separate speculative trading instrument in the market, and also serves as an indicator that allows you to determine current financial trends.
How To Analyze Any Chart From Scratch - Episode 4Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Today we are going to go over a practical example on US100, but you can apply the same logic / strategy on any instrument.
Feel free to ask questions or request any instrument for the next episode.
You can find the previous two episodes below "Related Ideas"
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Your strategy will inevitably go through a Drawdown!Your strategy will inevitably go through a Drawdown. And there's nothing you can do about it to stop that. However, you can learn how to survive it!
Today I will give you actionable steps, that you can use for the next time the market hit your strategy and you feel that everything is going wrong.
Let's start with an idea of what a drawdown is, and why drawdowns happen.
There are an infinite amount of trading strategies and tools that people use to trade and take advantage of specific market conditions.
Some traders are better in trending markets, they trade breakouts. Other traders feel more comfortable in ranging markets, where they trade quick reversals on key levels.
The Math is simple here. Trending strategies will have a poor performance on ranging markets, while reversal strategies will have a poor performance on trending markets.
Detecting the beginning and end of trending cycles or ranging cycles, is blurry. So, if you agree with that, as I do, you can expect your strategy to start failing at some point. And that's the beginning of the drawdown. (This is true for the best traders in the world, as for the worst traders in the world. Nobody scape drawdowns, the quickest you accept this, the faster you can learn how to handle them properly)
So let's start by saying that drawdowns are situations where your strategy experiences a lasting decline in performance, even if you are doing everything perfectly. Drawdowns, happen because strategies are made to take advantage of specific anomalies that can be found in one part of the market cycle, and when that market cycle finishes, or changes, your strategies become less accurate.
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It's important that you become aware of the Psychological consequences of Draw Downs , so you can have a countermeasure for this. Let's take a look at the most common ones:
1) Decrease in confidence (constant negative thoughts about your system)
2) Fear of entering the next trade.
3) Thinking about changing things in your strategy (deviations from the original plan)
4) Thinking about modifying the risk you are using to cover losses quicker.
5) Ceasing your trading execution, and looking for a new strategy.
ALL THESE ITEMS, are the main situations you may start feeling when going through a drawdown. IF you are going through that, it's important that you understand that you are under a delicate emotional state, where your confidence is low, and you are prone to make more emotional decisions that 99% of the time, tend to increase the drawdown.
So the way we handle drawdowns is by having logical and systematic processes in place instead of emotional ones.
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Here you have actionable steps to handle drawdowns:
STEP 1 : You handle drawdowns by getting ready before they happen, not when they are happening.
This is true for almost all disciplines, not only for trading. Airplanes have clear plans in case things start going wrong, instead of figuring out the problem at the moment, pilots go to the manual book, and use the template for this situation, plus the fact that they trained those situations several times in simulations.
So, if you want to understand what a drawdown situation looks like in your strategy, you MUST go into the past, and when I say this, I'm not saying making a 3 week backtest. You need to go as far as you can in the past, to find that exact moment where your strategy is not working as expected.
How many consecutive stop losses do I have? 3? 5? 15? 20?
How long does this period last until everything goes on track again? 1 month? 3 months? or a year?
These are the kind of answers you are trying to solve. When doing a backtest you are trying to understand two things. The first one is if your strategy has an edge. The second one is how hard you get hit when things go wrong!
STEP 2: Work your risk management around the stats of your system. Imagine we reach the following conclusion "I have a system, that executes 10 setups per month" and the worst-case scenario I have found is 20 consecutive stop losses during 2 months. What I would personally assume is that 20 consecutive stop losses can be 30. So how much capital percentage should I risk on this system so I don't get knocked out if this TERRIBLE scenario happens.
The answer for me would be 1% per setup. Under the assumption of this unique scenario, I would be 30% down, which is something acceptable, compared to the drawdown of conventional investment vehicles like S&P500 where we observed those kinds of declines, in the last years. The main point here is that you need to adapt the risk you are using on the strategy, to the stats of it, and your risk tolerance.
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Let's recap the key aspects of this post.
1) Drawdowns are inevitable, your strategy will be hit by this scenario eventually.
2) Drawdowns cause an emotional disturbance and are the main reason why people make really bad decisions.
3) We handle drawdowns by getting ready in advance. Through backtest, we can understand the edge of our strategy and the worst-case scenarios.
4) We adapt the risk of our strategy, by considering a terrible scenario, like 30 consecutive losses.
This will not eliminate the feeling during this period, but it will bring you a work frame to make logical decisions based on data, instead of emotions. Implementing this type of thinking will make your strategy more robust, it will help you go through these situations, and most importantly it will protect you from making stupid things with a strategy that has an edge, and actually works!
Thanks for reading!
Dollar IndexHello everyone!
There are many tools on the market to understand the general state of the economy or the company.
As a rule, indexes are responsible for this.
And today we will discuss the Dollar Index.
A little history
In 1973, the dollar Index (DXY) was invented and first introduced by JP Morgan.
Level 100 is the base value of the index. If the instrument shows, for example, a value of 110, it means that the dollar has grown by 10% relative to the base value.
As you may remember, in March 1973, the largest countries in the world introduced a floating exchange rate – this date was the beginning of the index.
About the index
With the help of the dollar index, analysts determine the strength of the dollar as a whole. This is a very simple analysis tool that almost every analyst uses and shows the index how strong or weak the dollar is relative to other world currencies.
Method of calculating the dollar index
The index consists of weighted components of the following currencies: euro (57.5%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound sterling (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%) and Swiss franc (3.6%).
As you can see, the currencies with which the dollar is compared are European countries, which is why DXY is called an "anti-European" index.
Based on the number of currencies in the index, people believe that the US is compared with six European countries, which is incorrect, since the euro is officially the currency of 19 EU countries: Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, France, Estonia.
Add to this 5 more countries — Japan, Great Britain, Canada, Sweden and Switzerland and we get almost the entire civilized world.
Although all countries are united by one currency, their economies are still different and therefore each currency of a separate country has a corresponding weight in the index.
Dollar Smile
One of the Morgan Stanley analysts noticed an interesting feature of the dollar – the dollar can strengthen in both bad and good economic conditions. This analyst was Stephen Jen and it was he who came up with the "dollar smile theory", the essence of which is that the dollar adheres to three scenarios:
1. "safe harbor" - investors believe that the economy is experiencing difficulties, so everyone is investing in less risky dollar assets.
2. When the US economy is weak, the dollar falls. The fall is strongly influenced by interest rates, as a result, everyone gets rid of the dollar, and the smile becomes wider.
3. Perhaps the easiest period to understand is the growth of the dollar due to the economic growth of the United States.
People increasingly believe in the country and the currency, which contributes to a greater growth of the dollar.
Thanks to this theory, it is easier to understand the market situation in general and the cyclical nature of the market.
How to use the index
The index is usually used to analyze currency pairs.
The index helps to determine the relative strength of the currency relative to the dollar, at those moments when you trade currencies in which there is USD, for example, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, etc. The
index is also used to find discrepancies.
If DXY falls and the dollar weakens, then you will see growth on the GBPUSD chart. If the dollar is the base currency, for example, USDJPY, then the index and the currency pair will move in the same direction.
Often you will notice that the dollar index is growing, and the currency pair is standing still – this is the discrepancy, which is very profitable for an observant analyst.
In addition to correlation with currency pairs, DXY correlates with oil.
The fact is that the largest oil consumers are hedgers of dollar inflation. Hence the inverse correlation of these instruments.
Professional analysts, before currency trading, look at the dollar index to understand the trend directions.
Conclusions
Thanks to the index, you can understand the state of the US economy.
DXY is a great addition to your strategy, which helps you identify trends or find discrepancies on the charts.
Using the index you will avoid mistakes and increase your profit.
Want to play safe? Don't play at all... for now! ⚠️This is just a short idea to remind you of some important items in situations like this.
Don't just open random positions.
Have these items in mind:
What not to do in Heavy dumps
1. Don't do leverage trading
2. Don't buy coins in FOMO
3. Don't stick to the screen all-day
4. Don't do revenge trading
5. Don't average out every dip
6. Don't go all in one coin
RSI Indicator & How To Use ItHello everyone, today, we´re gonna talk about an RSI and how to use it.
What is an RSI?
Basically, it´s an indicator that shows if the asset is overpriced or underpriced.
Basic information
RSI is 0-100
if the price is at 0-30, the asset is underpriced and theoretically it should go up.
if the price is at 70-100, the asset is overpriced and theoretically it should go down.
Professional information
You can set an MA based or RSI moves. And this is getting really interesting right now :)
Every time, the MA is touching bottoms or tops of RSI, it will go up or down (touch bottom = go up, touch top = go down.)
It works like an ball and floor. You just drop the ball on the floor and everytime the ball touches the floor, ball will just bounce and go up.
I drew it to the chart (green circles).
Okay guys, seems like we are in the end. Hope this helped you to make greater decisions and take good view at RSI.
Personally, I use RSI a lot and it´s really saving my a$$.
Thank you so much for reading my post, I´ll be really glad if you will hit that like button and follow me, so you can see other tutorials.
Have a nice rest of your day and stay safe.
Tommy.
How to predict the market moves easily by Forecast indexHello traders!
everyone wants to know where market will go at future, by Forecast index you can easily realize if the price can maintain its trend or not
Forecast index consisted of trend momentum, trend volume and trend strength which identify future trend reverses
Forecast index show you future trend revers by its direction before of every trend reverses , Forecast index change its direction faster than price.. which we call it miracle!
its work properly on every chart and time-frame, it becomes a bless at long term trends...
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