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Wyckoff basics explainedGoing back to the 18th of March where we called the Buyers Climax top for Bitcoin's "Wyckoff" Distribution phase. We have had a lot of questions regarding the technique. It's a very difficult one to put into only one post - but to understand Wyckoff methodology you need to first APPRECIATE what Wyckoff is about. History Richard Demille Wyckoff (November 2, 1873 – March 7, 1934) was an American stock market investor, and the founder and onetime editor of the Magazine of Wall Street. Wyckoff implemented his methods of technical analysis of the financial markets (the study of charts showing movements of stock-prices and other data). He grew his wealth such that he eventually owned nine and a half acres and a mansion next door to the Hamptons estate of General Motors president Alfred Sloan in Great Neck, New York. As Wyckoff became wealthier, he also became altruistic about the public's Wall Street experience. He turned his attention and passion to education, teaching, and in publishing exposes such as “Bucket Shops and How to Avoid Them”, which were run in New York's The Saturday Evening Post starting in 1922. Jump forward - too much detail for one post to cover. Wyckoff's research claimed many common characteristics among the greatest winning stocks and market campaigners of the time. He believed he had analyzed and determined where risk and reward were optimal for trading. He emphasized the placement of stop-losses at all times, the importance of controlling the risk of any particular trade. Wyckoff also has techniques he believed offered advantages when markets were rising or falling (bullish and bearish). The Wyckoff technique may provide some insight as to how and why professional interests buy and sell securities, while evolving and scaling their market campaigns with concepts such as the "Composite Operator". Wyckoff offered a detailed analysis of the "trading range", a posited ideal price bracket for buying or selling a stock. One tool that Wyckoff provides is the concept of the composite operator. Simply, Wyckoff felt that an experienced judge of the market should regard larger market trends as the expression of a single mind. He felt that it was an important psychological and tactical advantage to stay in harmony with this omnipotent player. Wyckoff believed investors would be better prepared to grow their portfolios and net worth by following in his footsteps. The LOGIC Applying this concept in a chart you can identify market phases and cycles - here's the snapshot from a daily BTC move. This relates to one of 4 (master patterns)this particular known as distribution schematic 1. **For the others you can see in the PDF linked below;** Phases - Simplified In this distribution schematic example (literally from Wednesday's BTC exit of the range) you will be able to identify a Buyers Climax (BC) from here, the assumption is that the composite man (strong hand operators) are taking profits - Money flow leaving, this causes an Automatic Reaction (AR). Now many retail traders will assume, this is another pullback (failing to identify the BC) if their on a very small time frame (and many retail traders are operating on lower time frames) then the assumption would be "buy the dip" and for a little while they are correct, we often see this (ST) move up but, this usually fails to go higher than the (BC). Composite man is in control This game is what many retail traders refer to as "Market Manipulation" - whilst the reality is, there is an identifiable pattern. Human beings are greedy, fearful and outright stupid at times. This allows for the perfect schematic to play itself out as the composite man accumulated or in the Bitcoin move Distribute. Here's an example from an older post I did walking through the psychology on a chart. You will see how price action in inextricably linked with the moves caused by the players "you & me" in the market. Later phases of this structure The general idea is for the composite man to accumulate or distribute to obtain a better position for himself, taking the market one way and the other. Often at times, retail will do the last couple of steps among themselves. Although the strong hands are often hedging positions, it is not always required to have their participation as the phases move on inside the structure. As we see a Sign Of Weakness (SOW) - the retail traders would have now seen a lower high and a lower low (logic) However from the (SOW) we move almost impulsively to the Upthrust (UT) the "bulltrap" to many newer traders. At this stage of the post, you might be starting to see inside how the manipulation works? Next phase Range bound - in true Wyckoff terms this region inside the schematic is known as phase B. We chop up and down and eventually create a new higher high. Again in Bitcoin's case we see the ATH. Known as the (UTAD) to Wyckoffian's - Up Thrust After Distribution. This is the climax and from here we see the price breaking down until we anticipate the exit of the range. On @TradingView We have also developed a pretty cool indicator to use one buy and one sell for Wyckoff schematics in particular. You can see how it fits inside the schematic. The logic can easily be assessed and broken down into small parts, step by step. And therefore, if it's something we can program. It is something you can learn. Here is the free link to the other Wyckoff Schematics - drive.google.com Hope you enjoyed this short intro to Wyckoff - see the previous video posts for live Wyckoff overlay examples. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
290
Impact of Presidential Election on Financial Markets.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Hello Traders Investors And Community. Welcome to this educational idea about the Impact of Presidential Election on Financial Markets. First of all, this is not a political view at all nevertheless we are facing the next important event that can have a substantial effect on the financial markets and therefore also important for traders and investors. Coming to this conclusion the history has shown that the presidential election and its pre also as post events can be suited into a whole presidential-election-cycle in which the several stages and timeframes within the cycle affecting the performance of markets. For this case, I looked at the past data and how presidential elections affected market performances and found out some very interesting and worthwhile things about it, these data resulting from the past election data can be measured into a 1.5-Year-Presidential-Pre-And-Post-Election-Performance-Cycle and the whole 4-Years-Presidential-Election-Performance-Cycle , both cycles are measured by historical market data and have a logical and coherent approach within them as the reelected or elected party together with the president playing an elementary role within it. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1.5-Year-Presidential-Pre-And-Post-Election-Performance-Cycle: As you can watch in the graph on my chart, the past data has shown that it is a meaningful factor wether the elected party gets reelected or other party gets elected. This is matching with the theory that the new elected party needs to adjust firstly to increase economy properly, however what they both have in common is the decline in the first year after election where the market has shown decrease whether under the incumbent party or new elected party. Furthermore, the graph shows that certainly after the first year since election has passed the market tends to increase where with incumbent parties the market performed better and on the contrary, with a new elected party the perfomance of the market increased also however not that big as with the incumbent party where the increase was partially four times higher. Besides that what is also really interesting here is the difference between the incumbent party and new elected in the last six month to the new election, where the market showed some steady decrease in growth however still an increase with the incumbent party while under the new elected not that much and also showed declines to the downside. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4-Years-Presidential-Election-Performance-Cycle: This graph shown in the left bottom of my chart is explicating the importance of the 4-years passing after a election, where the market clearly showed a weaker performance and possible declines in the first year after election which is matching also with the first graph and 1.5-years. This can result of a first adjustment in the market to this fundamental macroeconomic event before it can regain in pace together with the elected party and economic policies. The performance increased averagely steadily in the second year after election in historical price data till it reached its peak in the third year before election as the sitting party and president going into the objectives they have set in the campaign to increase the economy and with the goal to get reelected, this data was fairly consistent, regardless of the presidents and party political leanings. In the first year the peak performance going a little bit back which is also matching with the first graph where it also counts on the incumbent party or the new one, this year is the preparation on the new election and data has shown that performance has experienced steply declines till the election countdown. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Conclusion: Taking all these factors into consideration we can say that the market in the first year after election begins to grow slowly and firstly adjustes to the election results as the party comes in touch with it, then the performance begins to grow after the second year, here is it also a fundamental factor if the incumbent party got reelected or a new party got elected, as the incumbent reelection showed averagely better results. This tendency to the upside reaches its peak at the third year and then falls slowly till the election countdown. These data has been really coherent and repeatedly in the past that is why the election cycle is an important measurement that should not be kept by side. At the end it has to be noted that a massive swift in politics can also transform the cycle into other performances, however, this did not happen till now. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Outlook: It is no more than two months till the next election is taking place and it will be an significant occurrence as historical data has shown if the incumbent party currently consisting wins the election anew or new party is going to taking place which can change performances. Not only by the fact that history has shown declines in the first year after election we should not ignore that the corona crisis is still not yet over and that there exists a gap between real economy and stocks where real economy is still damaged by the corona increase and measurements while stock market making gains, this is an unhealthy environment which can unload itself, the real economy and stock market need to grow together for providing a solid market growth, this current economic disadvantaged situation matching with the first performance year after an election which is averagely not the best can take place into an inconsistent market outlook, therefore we should not keep the decline perspective out of sight especially the weeks and months it can show up in critical movements. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ In this manner, thank you for watching , support for more tutorials and a good day! "There are many roads to prosperity but one must be taken." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by VincePrince
48
Super set of oscillators by Thomas DeMark!Dear friends! I continue describing oscillators developed by Thomas DeMark. In my previous articles, I have already explained such tools as TD REI and TD POQ (look here ). In this post I’ll continue describing technical tools developed by Thomas DeMark. TD DeMarker I I’d like to start with the TD DeMarker I indicator. It is similar to TD REI and aims to distinguish between trend and non-trend movements in the market, and then, having determined the trend, it searches for reversal points depending on how the indicator reacts to oversold and overbought levels. Its calculation technique is very simple. TD DeMarker I compares the current and the previous trading day’s highs according to the following algorithm: 1. Calculate the TD DeMarker I numerator • If the current bar’s high is higher or equal to the previous bar’s high, the difference is calculated and added to the numerator. • If the current bar’s high is lower than the previous day’s high, then zero value is assigned to that bar. Next values of the difference between the highs for each bar are added to the numerator over a series of 13 consecutive bars. • If the current bar’s low is equal or less than the previous price bar’s low, then the difference between the previous day’s low and the current low are the numerator. • If the low of the current bar’s is greater, a zero value is assigned to the nominator at this bar. The next values of the difference between the lows for each bar are added to the numerator over 13 consecutive bars. 2. Calculate the denominator of TD DeMarker I equation • You add the value in the denominator to the sum of the differences between the lows in the same period. 3. Calculate TD DeMarker I = divide the numerator by the denominator. • As a result, we get a value that will move in the range from zero to 100 in the form of a fluctuating 13-period line. At the same time, the overbought zone will be above 60, and the oversold zone will be below 40. Now, let’s find out how this indicator’s signals are interpreted A buy signal should satisfy the following conditions: 1. DeMarker I must not be below 40 for more than 13 bars 2. The bar’s close at the signal level should be lower than the low of one or two bars ago 3. The bar’s close at the signal level must be lower than the previous bar’s open or close. 4. The open of the next bar following the assumed reversal bar must be less than or equal to the close of any of the two previous bars. 5. The asset must be trading higher than at least one of the two previous closes. As an example, I’ll take the BTCUSD market situation that has recently occurred. It is clear from the above chart that the BTCUSD was in the overbought zone (above 60) from the start till the end of May. Afterwards, the price rolled down below 40 and the indicator entered the oversold zone. Immediately after that, we look for a point where the bar features the low before price exits the oversold zone. Finally, when the price went beyond the oversold zone on June 13, we can easily identify the low in the period when the ticker had been below 40, according to TD DeMarker I. Now, we can analyze the continuation pattern based on the above conditions. 1. The DeMarker I indicator was below the level of 40 for not more than 13 bars - in our case it was only 5 days; 2. The bar’s close under the red arrow is lower than the previous bar’s low (blue dots are above than the red dotted line). 3. The close of the bar below the arrow is lower than the previous bar’s open and close (blue dots are far lower than the previous bar). 4. The next bar’s open following the reversal bar is equal to the previous bar’s close (there are no gaps). 5. The asset is trading higher than the previous bars’ close levels. Furthermore, when the indicator exited the overbought zone, the price had been already trading above all the previous bars’ close levels. Therefore, one could have safely entered a buy trade at the current level when the new bar of June 14 opened (I marked it with a red cross in the chart). As we already know, this signal reached the target and provided the opportunity to gain on the BTCUSD movement up to the high at 14 000 USD. I should note that when a buy signal is not confirmed, that is, the five conditions above are not met, there is still a signal, but it is a sell signal. Although such a sell signal cannot be as strong, it can be a confirmation for bearish signals of other indicators. There is a good example in the chart above. It displays bitcoin’s all-time high at 20 000 USD. After the DeMarker I had been in the overbought zone for quite a long time, it moved into the oversold zone, and so, we start counting and see how long the price will be in this zone. Finally, there is the following situation: 1. DeMarker I was not below the level of 40 for more than 13 bars, in this case it was 12. So, this condition is satisfied. 2. The close of the bar under the red arrow is lower than the previous bar’s low (blue dotetd line is below the red dotted line). This condition is also satisfied 3. The close of the bar under the arrow is lower than the previous bar’s open and close. This condition is also met. 4. The open of the bar following the reversal bar is equal the close of the previous bar (there are no gaps). This condition also confirms the bullish scenario. 5. The asset is trading above the previous close levels. This condition is not met. It is clear from the above chart the bar following the oversold zone (marked with a red arrow) went down lower than the close levels of the previous two bars, and, moreover, it was trading below the close level of the two bars preceding the reversal bar. Therefore, the last condition is not satisfied, and so, we have the reasons to assume that there is a real reversal of the bullish trend. Now, let us study the sell signals. The following conditions must be met: 1. A sell signal should meet the following conditions: 2. The indicator must be above level 60 for at least six bars. 3. The signal bar’s close must be above the previous bar’s open and close. 4. The open of the bar following the signal must be equal or higher than the close of any of the two previous bars. 5. The asset must be trading below one of the previous close levels. As soon as all these conditions are satisfied, it can be interpreted as a sell signal. TD DeMarker II The above chart presents an example of the Bitcoin bullish trend reversal in December 2017, after which there started a long-tern bearish trend. Let us analyze this situation as a bearish signal. When the bar marked with a red cross was forming, the DeMarker I indicator leaves the overbought zone and goes below level 60. Therefore, it is the case for looking for a sell signal within the zone, where the price was above level 60 (the zone is highlighted with green in the chart). The red arrow highlights the bar that closed higher than the highs of the previous two bars, and so, higher than the previous bar’s open and close (in the chart, it is marked by the purple dotted line on December 17 that is above the green line). The next bar, following the one with the red arrow, also meet the condition and opens above the close of the second-last bar. Finally, there is the trend reversal signal and the opportunity to take the profit on December 20 (it is the bar marked with the red cross in the chart). However, this indicator, like other technical tools, may send false signals. To filter the entry signal, it is recommended to apply TD DeMarker II as a supplementary tool. TD DeMarker II Unlike the TD REI and TD DeMarker I, which compare the price highs and lows with those of one bar ago, TD DeMarker II analyzes a number of price ratios to measure the pressure of buyers and sellers. Let us study the calculation formula of the TD DeMarker II. Calculate the numerator: 1. Calculate the difference between the current bar’s high and the previous bar’s close. 2. Add the result to the difference between the current bar’s close and its low. 3. Distract the previous value from the current bar’s high 4. Sum up all the values. If there is negative result, assign a zero value to it. Calculate the denominator: 1. Add the difference between the current bar’s low and the previous bar’s close to the numerator. 2. Add the result to the difference between the current bar’s high and its close (this value defines the selling pressure). The buy and sell signals of this indicator work under the same conditions as for the TD DeMarker I, so, I won’t enumerate them again. I have already many times mentioned that, if multiple buy or sell signals are at the same place, the signal becomes much stronger. As it is clear from the above chart, a buy signal sent by the TD DeMarker II (green cross) matches to the one sent by the TD DeMarker I (red cross), which in combination confirms the sell signal and enhances it. TD Pressure DeMark suggests that the price action is directly affected by the supply/demand ratio. As the price change is often preceded by a change in trading volume, DeMark suggests measuring the speed of changing in the trading volume along with the speed of price changes. In addition, according to DeMark, these parameters are more important for the current bar, rather than for the complete bars. In general, these values determine the buying pressure on the market, which is calculated by subtracting the current bar’s open from the its close and dividing the result by the price range of this bar. The result is multiplied by the trading volume of the current period and is added as a progressive total to the indicator value. Finally, we have an indicator that shows buying pressure. For example, if the bar’s open is equal to its low, and the bar’s close is equal to its high, then the trading volume will be on side of buyers, and the indicator will display a strong rise of buying pressure. And vice versa, if the bar’s open and close coincide, even a greater trading volume won’t affect the indicator, as the market will be balanced, and the bulls’ power will be roughly equal to that of bears. The indicator’s band moves from 0 to 100%, and the overbought and oversold zones, like for the indicators, described above, are the zones above 60 and below 40 respectively. The buy and sell signals sent by this indicator are interpreted in the same way as those sent by TD DeMarker I and II. Besides, this indicator is also a confirming one, and when it coincides with other signals, it confirms the indicated direction. You see in the above chart that the signal sent by the TD pressure (yellow cross) matches to the signals sent by the DeMarker I and the DeMarker II (red and green crosses respectively), which means that the sell signal is true. TD Rate of change (TD ROC) TD ROC is an integral component of TD Alignment but can also be used in isolation as an overbought/oversold indicator. It is thought to be quite simple and is determined by dividing the close of the current price bar by the close of twelve price bars earlier. Although it is pretty simple, this indicator is quite efficient. According to Thomas DeMark, the bears’ zone is below 97.5. Bulls zone is above 102.5. Therefore, when the indicator is in a narrow band between 97.5 and 102.5 the market is in balance. So, this indicator helps you identify the market sentiment at any moment. But this is not its primary advantage. You can employ this indicator in technical analysis and draw the common patterns and trend lines. The chart above shows how a triangle worked out. A strong momentum, marked with a red arrow, draws the indicator beyond the triangle, which means that the market lost balance and started moving in the bullish trend. Next, after the triangle was broken out and the bullish trend started, we build trend lines according to the common rules; in the bullish trend, the trend is outlined along the support line (red line), in the bearish trend -along the resistance lines (green line). It is clear from the chart above that the breakout of these lines and entering the bear zone send a sell signal (red cross) in early July. Afterwards, we build the trend line along the resistance levels sand expect until the price breaks it through and enter bullish zone. Finally, in the mid-July, there is such a buy signal, marked with green cross in the chart. Next, there is a strong growth in the bullish trend that is marked with the red trend line. The breakout of this line sends a signal to take profit, and entering bearish zone again signals the trend weakness. As you see from the chart above, the indicator broke through the green trendline in late July but it hasn’t entered the bullish zone, and so, there has been no buy signal so far. Another signal that really matters when using this indicator is the signal of convergence and divergence. These signals are rarely sent by this indicator, but they are usually quite accurate, especially in long-term timeframes. There is a clear divergence in the above chart. When the price is growing, the indicator is declining, which signals the trend exhaustion. In early July, the price couldn’t break through the previous high, thus confirming the direction of the indicator (marked with a circle). Finally, as I have already said, the indicator went down below the trend line, which sends a strong sell signal; however, as you know, the bearish correction didn’t work out, so, for an accurate forecast, it important to employ all the DeMark's tolls together. TD Alignment Just for this purpose, to combine all the tools together, the TD Alignment indicator was developed. TD Alignment is a composite indicator that combines the following five TD oscillators to measure buying and selling pressure: 1. TD DeMarker I 2. TD DeMarker II 3. TD Pressure 4. TD Rate of Change 5. TD Range expansion Index (this indicator is described here) Each of these indicators has its own distinct method of measuring overbought/oversold conditions. TD Alignment is based on the values of all the above indicators according to the principle, where the final result is determined of the number of indicators in an oversold condition, overbought and equilibrium. In addition, to calculate the TD Alignment, there were defined the following overbought/oversold zones: Overbought/Oversold 1. TD DeMarker I - 60/40 2. TD DeMarker II - 60/40 3. TD Pressure - 82/12 4. TD Rate of Change - 101/99 5. TD Range expansion Index - 40/-40 Therefore, when the TD DeMarker enters the oversold zone, 1 is added to the total result. If the indicator enters the equilibrium zone, between 60 -40, a zero value is assigned, if it is below 40, 1 is subtracted from the total value. Based on the same principle, all the indicators are calculated, and finally, there is the TD Alignment value that is moving between -5 and +5. -5 is reached when all the indicators are in the oversold zone, and +5 is associated with the case when all the indicators are in the overbought zone. Unfortunately, I failed to find the TD Alignment in free access, so I had to write everything on my own. I must admit there may be errors in calculations, nonetheless, it performs quite well during testing. As you see, the main benefit of this indicator is showing the cases when the market reaches the extremes of the overbought/oversold zones. In the above chart, I highlighted these levels from +4 to +5 and from -4 to -5. When the indicator reaches this zone, it is obvious that the price will start correction soon and so you should take a corresponding decision on either taking profit or entering a trade. In addition, the indicator shows the market sentiment currently dominating; if it is above zero, bullish sentiment is dominating, if it is below zero, the market is bearish. Buy or sell signal here must meet the same 5 conditions, described for TD DeMarker at the beginning of the article, the only difference is that you need to count the number if bars above or below zero. Based on my own experience, I would add one more condition, the sixth one, to be met for entering a buy or a sell trade. A buy/sell signal is confirmed when the TD Alignment indicator breaks through zero level (red dots) only provided that the indicator hit the overbought/oversold zone before. In the above chart, I tried to illustrate that, after the indicator hits green or red zone, i.e. overbought or oversold zone, the sixth condition is satisfied. So, when the indicator breaks through or rebounds from the zero level, there is a buy or a sell signal (according to the market sentiment, I marked the entry signals with green and red arrows). A red thumb down marks the levels where the market doesn’t reach the zones indicated above, and so, the condition is not met and the buy or sell signal is false; I marked false signal with the red crosses in the chart. However, not everything is that perfect, because this indicator is rather sensitive and so, it sends quite many false signals. That is why, I do not recommend employing this indicator alone, rather, it should be used together with other DeMark's tools so that it will be more efficient. I will describe other useful DeMark's indicators and explain how to apply them to BTCUSD trading in my next articles. Subscribe not to miss the continuation! I wish you good luck and good profits!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Hypov
3
FANG: SUPERHERO HEAVEN OR HELL? This is the like the most powerful index on earth! From end of March 2020 to first week in Sept 2020, FANGS appreciated ~140%. If a trader had the right bottle, $1 could have become $34,000! This is just the mathematics. (Note carefully - this is an educational post, not a trade. I have not traded this nor do I make any claims. Trading in *derivatives in this index or any other, can multiply the value of $1. See disclaimer .) The FANG+ index is one to watch for everything else. It rules the world, of stock markets and influences several currencies (USD, NZD, AUD and JPY). This is where the big boys play! So - will the superheroes save the world? I don't know. There has been an important and sudden correction of this index. Stay tuned. Disclaimers : Leveraged trades and *derivatives are highly risky instruments. This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
ICEUS:FNG1!Education
by Captain_Walker
INDEX and JPY - A CLOSE RELATIONThats a big text but may add something to your knowledge about how the markets work. I will explain a the reasons that made me confident about all those JPY trades, and that was the STOCK MARKETS. I'm a full-time trader on the Brazilian stock market, it has some peculiarities right now, with all the political noise we are having here. But my knowledge regarding stock markets also helps when trading Forex, as I need to analyse all major indexes, mainly Dow Jones (US30) and S&P 500 (US500), which are the main indexes of the world economy. Those last days they seem to be so weak, not managing to break resistances and making lower lows since the top of the pullback on the end of April. It was ranging in what seems like a drift pattern, around the 61.8% Fibonacci zone of the whole crash. I think that know we can confirm this break. That being said, let's head to the JPY situation. Japan is one of the most stable economies on the world. And most trusted too. Linking that to Forex, their currency, JPY, is considered a "SAFE HEAVEN". It means that it is often used as a secure currency, safe place to put your money in on RISKY TIMES on the financial markets. And that's exactly what we are seeing right now. As more people wants to get in JPY, the xxx/JPY pairs tend to move to the downside. When the JPY pairs had all the same setup, testing the trendlines , I went in. And that was one more signal that the stock markets were about to melt: people running to buy JPY. Banks and big players always are positioning themselves looking at the big moves coming. They were buying JPY just before the stocks fall, and that can be seen on the charts. With all those confirmations, I'm still holding the trades right now and will update here and in my Telegram channel if I think prices directions may change. But, for now, no sign of reverse on the stock markets. At least, I expect it to go to the 38.2% retracement as drawn in the chart. Keep and eye on the channel and my profile for updates, I will be trying to help as much as I can and show my positions. If you liked it, please leave a like for me to know if I should make more of this. And, of course, recommend to your friends. Good luck on trading and KEEP SAFE.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Thomas_Juchem
DXY - Gold negative correlationJohn Murphy in his classic on "Intermarket Analysis" writes on the dollar gold negative correlation. Here we compared DXY - Gold correlation on daily chart in regard towards 200 day average. If you will take closer look, you will see that in case of divergences forming, it is dollar index that usually fails. If gold breaks resistance (being in sharp uptrend towards 2011 highs) and we do observe some sort of bullish cup and handle continuation pattern - dollar is likely to fall. By DeMark criteria, bullish breakout on gold looks better than the one on dollar index. On correlation cofficient, we are also observing ever decreasing divergence trend towards 200 day average. At any case one of two should fail in uptrend:)
TVC:DXYEducation
by ICFX
13
St. Louis Financial Stress IndexRecently the STLFSI retreated to its near-historical low levels. RSI is indicating a divergence that could indicate the index will head higher. Markets are also looking poised to resume their volatile trend to the downside after rallying this year. About the Index: The STLFSI measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress. Accordingly, as the level of financial stress in the economy changes, the data series are likely to move together. How to Interpret the Index: The average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress
FRED:STLFSI2Education
by Trader6127
"VIX, a powerfull tool to use on SP500" by ThinkingAntsOk -Today we are going to show Vix Index on daily chat compared to SP500 (orange line). The first thing we noticed is the Wedge formations on the chart. -As Vix starts going down, SP500 keeps rising, the concept is that people trust on the strength of the bullish trend, on this process we can see the Wedge patterns on VIX, and bullish trends on SP500. -To see the Wedge Pattern we only need to draw a line between the higher lows on VIX. -OK great! But how can I do something with this? -Let’s see it on this way, imagine you have been following a bullish movement on SP500 and you see that is about to face a major resistance zone and you observe that the bullish trend is losing strength. When you detect this, you are going to Focus you attention on the VIX chart, and you are going to ask yourself the next question. -Is price inside the Wedge Pattern or is about to break out? -If the price has broken out the structure and SP500 is on a Major reversal zone, then, that’s a strong bearish confirmation to start thinking on bearish setups. -Why should I look for bearish setups? Because that means that people is starting to have fear of a possible bearish movement that’s the reason VIX is making new highs and has broken the Wedge pattern, we should complement this by seeing bearish candlesticks on SP500 with high volume on them. -Conclusion: see on the pictures how Vix preceded the beginning of the two previous bearish trends with a breakout signal. -Complementing charts is always a good way of making your setups more solid. *Please note that the above perspective is our view on the market, We do not give signals and take no responsibility for your trades.
CBOE:VIXEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
S&P 500 Index CRASH (The Drop Starts)I've been warning my dear followers and cryptocurrency lovers about the S&P 500 Index crash for a long time. For conventional minds, it is really hard to grasp the fact that the SPX will crash massively and become ugly due to all the lies and hype spread through the conventional media news systems, but charts do not lie. Reading charts is like looking at a foreign language, it might be hard to understand if you don't know it, but if you know it, it is basically the same as your own native language. This chart here is speaking to me, to us, and it has lots to say. First, it keeps on telling us the media is lying about the bullishness of the SPX, we see hype, hype, hype... Yet it can't break the last high. Second, it gives us clues and shows us things that are not easy to understand if you are not advanced at reading charts; using my indicators, we can see bearish divergence growing stronger every day that goes on. Finally, bearish volume growing up on a Friday while the EMA10 support broke right away... Let me tell you honestly... This is my last warning. The SPX 500 will crash, according to the chart above, no matter what anybody says. Conditions for change? Move back up, spring up and keep going up all the way... But this isn't really happening since the SPX hasn't been able to break the 2895 resistance for the past 166+ days. I am sharing this as a friendly reminder, warning, for your learning and entertainment as well... So feel free to hit like if you want to now, and let's focus on making money with our altcoins trades. This is Alan Masters. Namaste.
SP:SPXEducation
by AlanSantana
3
US Dollar: Mind the scallopsScallops are broad patterns as shown in the chart. Whilst de-dollarisation is happening at a slow macroeconomic pace, coming from Russia, China and Japan (largely), it doesn't mean that the US Dollar will simply roll over. The pattern of the scallops is quite visible. Now the US-Dollar is at a critical point and making attempts to do another scallop. I don't assume that each scallop will be less prominent than the previous. Overall the trend from April 2018 seems to be weakening but I make no assumptions that in the short term (next few weeks) the US-Dollar will not bounce north. US-Dollar strength is broadly inversely correlated with commodities, metals and US-stock-markets - whilst affecting the strength of other currencies indirectly. The pattern is useful in terms of assessing other positions in the markets both on Stock Markets and Forex.
FX:USDOLLAREducation
by Captain_Walker
2
US Dollar under potential threat as de-dollarization sets in.In this screencast, I'm looking ahead for potential moves, possibly south in the US-Dollar. This is about preparedness. In the video I explore emerging geopolitical and macroeconomic issues that are taking place. The US-Dollar strength has big influence at this time on: 1. Commodities 2. Metals - especially Gold and Silver 3. Oil 4. Stock markets in the US and elsewhere. 5. US-Dollar currency pairs. - and more. This thing is big! There is reliable information about a silent forex war happening largely unseen as China, Russia and Japan are giving up US debt, and moving into Gold and Crytocurrencies. I don't do predictions, so I'm unable to say what this would mean for the future. Do not take my word for it - check out this stuff on reliable information channels (unable to give further information here - but PM me if you wish).
FX:USDOLLAREducation
by Captain_Walker
Are Index Funds overrated?What's up guys, YoungShkreli in the building Warren Buffett has said that when he dies he wants his family's money to be put into an index fund. Warren Buffett and it seems like everyone else these days is in love with the index fund. I think buying an index fund is stupid - that's right stupid (sometimes). What is YoungShkreli on about? I mean, does he really think he knows anything? He's an idiot we all know that! Well guys, I don't mind if anyone thinks I am an idiot because I am not a genius and I am not an original thinker here, I am just applying what I've read and understand. Here's the deal, my brother and I did the calculations recently (seriously we actually do that) and we found that the average pe ratio of the top american companies was about 23. What does that mean to us? Well, the two books that I base my value investing ideologies (indeed warren buffet does too) are: The Intelligent Investor and Security Analysis. In those books it says that it is UNACCEPTABLE to be buying stocks above ~20 pe ratio and I agree. This doesn't mean you will lose money every time you do, it just means it's not a good strategy. So, by Warren Buffet's own logic, the index funds are currently not worth investing in because they are overvalued. Full stop. So why does he keep telling people to buy index funds??? (hint: it's not because he is evil) It's because they are generally speaking good investments in the long run. Warren Buffett tells us this because he wants us to think in THE LONG RUN and not about speculating in short moves. It's truly a wise ideology and practical advise, but it's the dumbed down version of the truth. My job here is not to talk down to you, it's to give you sound advice based on what I know. SUMMARY: Index funds are a great option for people because they are diverse and they seem to work in the long run, but the bottom line is that you can't buy something that is overvalued no matter what it is, it just doesn't make sense to do so. Let's not forget, the economy could crash 50% and it could stay below its all time highs for 20 years - what would that mean for you? A bad time. TL;DR: Index funds are sometimes overvalued - now is one of those times. Good luck bros, Young Shkreli
SP:SPXEducation
by CantorTechnologies
6
HYPERBITCOINIZATION: dollar purchasing power down 94% since 1914Purchasing power ( PP -25.00% ) is a measure of strength of a currency. It represents a quantity of goods & services that can be bought by a unit of currency. Since 1914 the purchasing power of the US dollar -0.89% is down 96 %. The calculation is simple. We take the consumer price index ( CPI 0.24% ) for the USA and divide every value by the value for our base year (1914), then multiply by 100 to get a percentage: PP -25.00% = CPI_i / CPI_base * 100 The CPI 0.24% is itself a measure of economic strength and its rate of change forms the basis of inflation . From Wikipedia: "The CPI 0.24% is a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are collected periodically." Since the introduction of a de facto system of free floating fiat currencies in the early 70s, the decline has been slow but persistent 3.66% . It looks very much like an asymptotic decay, where the value will go to zero over an infinite 2.39% amount of time. Inflation may effect the rate of decline, but it seems that the natural process in this case is decline.
REducation
by RealMcafee
13
NASDAQ The Perfect TrendThe market has been running up since the beginning of 2017. If we traded based on Ichimoku indicator, we could make good profit. You can see 7 long trades and possible entry levels. The main thing you have to note: Ichimoku is a trend indicator. It must be used only with trend market conditions. When markets are in range, there will be a lot of false signals. It does not mean that Ichimoku useless, it means that you use wrong tools. I use DMI indicator for understanding market conditions. If ADX line rises or it's above 20 level, we have trend market conditions and we can trade based on Ichimoku signals. If ADX line is below 20 and falls, it's time to do nothing. As for RSI, it's good for confirmation price reversals from Ichimoku lines.
FX:NAS100Education
by DLavrov