Hello fellow traders and dear padawans. The equities market has been hit very hard the past 3 weeks or so, specially growth stocks. I think it is important to address what is happening behind the scenes that caused the selloff in the equities market so that many of you can better understand what is going on. This is a very basic explanation of macroeconomics and...
Aggravated by Jerome Powell's speech at the Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit, the tech-led sell-off continues, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall by 1.11%, S&P 500 by 1.34%, and Nasdaq Composite by 2.11%. On that note, the 10-year Treasury yield also popped to 1.541% during Jerome Powell's speech, later closing at that level for the day. But how,...
Hi Tradingviewers, in this article I am going to break down this question into smaller items and try to give a concrete answer to the question: “How Much BTC Do You Need to Create Generational Wealth?” First, we’ll have to define what ‘wealth’ means. Then we need to define how we look at the ‘generational’ part. Lastly, we also need to take into consideration...
I was taught in undergrad that adding to the money supply is inflationary . The logic was, you print more bills; the existing currency gets diluted in buying power. Following the ‘Crises of 2008’ the Fed launches Quantitative easing and purchases long term securities increasing the money supply and lowering rates. This activity would result in more investment...
In order for inflation to occur, people need to have more money to spend on goods.
TO UNDERSTAND THE STOCK MARKET'S MOVEMENT, YOU MUST UNDERSTAND WHICH FACTOR IS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL: THE DOLLAR! IF THE FED HAS SUCCEEDED IN SATISFYING THE GLOBAL DOLLAR SHORTAGE, THE STOCK MARKET WILL CREATE NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS! IF THEY HAVE FAILED, ANOTHER WAVE OF ILLIQUIDITY WILL OCCUR!
THE PRICE OF OIL IS THE MOST DIFFICULT PRICE TO MANIPULATE FOR CENTRAL BANKS! HOWEVER, THROUGH VAST AMOUNTS OF FIAT CURRENCY CREATION, THE PRICE OF OIL INCREASINGLY REFLECTS THE DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. DOLLAR, NOT REAL DEMAND! TO OBSERVE THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE INFLATED U$D PRICE OF OIL AND REAL DEMAND FOR OIL, COMPARE THE PRICE OF OIL TO THE PRICE OF GOLD!
Reminder of my idea about taxing the rich as a solution: And so (high) inflation.... Here is an economist article on it, they have a chart with the budget balance. www.economist.com I'll make some bullet points here too about inflation: - The government robs wealth from the whole population to fund programs. Printed money isn't real money, you can't just...
THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO THE FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...
THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO TO FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS...
Bitcoin are "anti-inflationary" asset . In deflation times ( prediction: mid 2020 - mid 2022) Bitcoin is not good asset to hold. Better strategy is to buy high amounts at mid 2022 (expected low).
THE DXY IS ONLY MADE UP OF 6 MAJOR CURRENCIES MEASURED AGAINST THE DOLLAR: EUR (57.6% OF THE WEIGHTING), JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), CHF (3.6%) A MISTAKE MANY PEOPLE MAKE WHEN PREDICTING THE DOLLAR'S STRENGTH IS USING THE DXY AS A GAUGE FOR ALL CURRENCIES' PERFORMANCES AGAINST THE DOLLAR! EMERGING MARKET AND MANY OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES ARE...
"The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt." - Ben Bernanke in 2009 while testifying before US congress. Those that did not believe this were called perma bears and fear mongering lunatics :) (Imagine being that gullible LOL!) Alot of the ones calling others perma bears and crazies are now saying they knew all along, or that no one could have seen this coming...
Inflation is a measure of a currencies devaluation over time. It is determined by the consumer price index (CPI) which itself is a record of the cost of a standardised basket of goods over time. CPI figures are recorded monthly by governments. Here I use the CPI of the USA. Economists call a price which has been adjusted for inflation the real price . To adjust...
Purchasing power ( PP -25.00% ) is a measure of strength of a currency. It represents a quantity of goods & services that can be bought by a unit of currency. Since 1914 the purchasing power of the US dollar -0.89% is down 96 %. The calculation is simple. We take the consumer price index ( CPI 0.24% ) for the USA and divide every value by the value for our base...
In the following content i will explain how you can forecast the market with CPI (inflation) and Financials: If we look at our figure we can say a few things, i will assume them below: 1. ABN AMRO (a dutch Financial) is highly correlated to the NIKKEI225 index. 2. Since nearly May 2016 we can see that the CPI (inflation)-chart has change 5 times. If we look at...