Why both Gold & U.S. Dollar Index are rising ? (IMPORTANT)The Intricate Dance of Gold and the U.S. Dollar
The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Gold prices is a fascinating study in economics. Typically, these two have a reverse correlation. The reason for this inverse relationship is that gold is priced in U.S. dollars. Therefore, when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies. This can decrease demand for gold and subsequently lower its price.
However, this correlation is not set in stone. There are times when both the DXY and gold prices can increase simultaneously. This can occur due to a variety of factors such as geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty, or changes in monetary policy.
For instance, from early 2022 to the beginning of 2024, the correlation between gold and the DXY has seen periods of both synchronicity and divergence. This indicates that other factors are influencing gold prices.
Currently, despite the rising DXY, gold prices are also on an upward trend. This could be attributed to investors seeking safe-haven assets amidst economic or geopolitical uncertainty. This increases the demand for gold, driving up its price even as the dollar strengthens. Additionally, expectations of changes in monetary policy, such as interest rate cuts, can also affect gold prices.
In conclusion, while the DXY and gold prices often move in opposite directions, there are times when they dance to the same tune. This intricate dance is influenced by a myriad of factors, making the relationship between the DXY and gold prices a complex and intriguing aspect of global economics.
Prepared by : Arman Shaban
Iran
Dollar Index (DXY) From an educational point of view, time cycle theory shows that the price of the dollar in January is interested in reaching its lowest level.
In fundamental terms, the dollar usually weakens slightly towards the end of the presidency.
Especially if a Republican like Trump is president.
The value of the dollar weakens, especially during the Republican era, and grows during the Democratic era. (Just look at the chart)
There are two lines of support here that mark the end of the flat correction pattern.
Wave support line (4) and correction wave support line (a)
I estimate the probability of a price return from wave support (4) as 30%.
And I estimate the probability of a price return from wave (a) support at 80%.
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