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Marketpsychology

Understanding Price Clustering in the Bitcoin Market█ Understanding Price Clustering in the Bitcoin Market Price clustering is a phenomenon where certain price levels, particularly round numbers, tend to appear more frequently in financial markets. This study focuses on how price clustering occurs in the Bitcoin market, providing insights that can be valuable for traders. █ The Psychology Behind Price Clustering One of the primary reasons behind price clustering in the Bitcoin market is the psychological impact of round numbers. Market participants often perceive prices ending in 0 or 00 as significant, which leads to a concentration of buy and sell orders around these levels. This behavior is not unique to Bitcoin; it has been observed across various financial markets, from stocks to foreign exchange. For instance, when Bitcoin prices approach a round number like $30,000 or $50,000, traders might expect strong resistance or support at these levels. This expectation can lead to increased trading activity, causing prices to cluster around these key levels. The psychological importance of these numbers can also cause traders to place stop-loss or take-profit orders around them, further reinforcing the clustering effect. █ Key Findings from the Study ⚪ Clustering Around Round Numbers: The study highlights that Bitcoin prices tend to cluster around round numbers, such as $10,000, $20,000, or $50,000. This is primarily driven by psychological barriers, where traders view these round numbers as significant price levels, leading to an increased concentration of trading activity. ⚪ Impact of Time Frames: The extent of price clustering varies significantly with the time frame. In shorter time frames (like 1-minute or 15-minute intervals), price clustering is less pronounced due to the randomness of price movements. However, as the time frame lengthens (hourly or daily), the clustering effect becomes more apparent, suggesting that traders may be more likely to anchor their strategies around these round numbers over longer periods. ⚪ Differences in Open, High, and Low Prices: The study also finds differences in clustering patterns between open, high, and low prices. High prices tend to cluster around the digits 8, 9, and 0, while low prices cluster around 1, 2, and 0. Open prices generally show less clustering, suggesting they are less influenced by immediate market psychology. This pattern suggests that traders should pay particular attention to high and low prices during trading sessions, as these are more likely to show clustering around key levels. High Price: This is the highest price that Bitcoin reaches during a specific time period (for example, during a day or an hour). The study found that high prices cluster more around certain numbers, especially numbers ending in 0 or 9. So, high prices often end in numbers like $10, $100, $1,000, or $9,999 because traders tend to react to these round numbers. Low Price: This is the lowest price Bitcoin hits during a certain time period. Similar to high prices, low prices also cluster, but more around numbers ending in 0 and 1. So, low prices might end in numbers like $10, $1,001, or $5,001. Why is there a difference? High prices tend to cluster at numbers ending in 0 or 9 because those feel like natural stopping points for traders. Low prices tend to cluster at numbers ending in 0 or 1 for similar reasons. ⚪ Price Level Influence: The study highlights that clustering behavior changes with the overall price level of Bitcoin. At lower price levels (e.g., below $10,000), there is more clustering around multiples of 5, such as $25, $50, or $75. As the price increases, the significance of these smaller increments diminishes, and clustering around larger round numbers becomes more dominant. █ Practical Insights for Retail Traders Understanding price clustering is crucial for traders because it sheds light on how market participants behave, particularly around psychologically significant price levels. These insights can help traders anticipate where the market might encounter resistance or support, allowing them to make more informed decisions. ⚪ Identify Key Psychological Levels: Retail traders can benefit from identifying and monitoring round number levels in Bitcoin prices, such as $10,000, $30,000, or $50,000. These levels are likely to act as psychological barriers, leading to increased trading activity. Understanding these levels can help traders anticipate potential support or resistance areas where price reversals may occur. ⚪ Adjust Trading Strategies Based on Time Frame: The study suggests that the effectiveness of using price clustering in trading strategies depends on the time frame. For short-term traders, clustering may be less reliable, but for those operating on longer time frames, clustering around round numbers could provide actionable signals for entry or exit points. ⚪ Focus on High and Low Prices: Retail traders should pay particular attention to clustering in high and low prices during a trading session. These prices are more likely to exhibit clustering, indicating areas where traders might place stop-loss orders or where price reversals could occur. By aligning their trades with these clusters, traders could improve their risk management. If you’re setting stop-loss orders, for instance, placing them just beyond a cluster point could help you avoid being stopped out prematurely by normal market noise. Similarly, identifying clusters at high prices could offer better opportunities for taking profits. ⚪ Consider the Overall Price Level: The level at which Bitcoin is trading also affects clustering. For example, when Bitcoin is at a lower price, traders might find opportunities by focusing on price levels ending in 5 or 0. However, as Bitcoin’s price increases, clustering becomes more concentrated around larger round numbers. Adjusting trading strategies to consider the current price level can enhance decision-making. Price Clustering at Low Levels (<$10 USD): There is significant clustering at prices ending in 0, but also notable clustering at prices ending in 5, which acts as a psychological barrier at these lower levels. Prices ending with 50 are also frequently observed as significant psychological barriers. Clustering is weaker overall at these levels compared to higher price ranges, but still noticeable at certain intervals. Price Clustering at Mid-Levels ($100–$1,000 USD): Clustering becomes more focused on round numbers like 00, 50, and 25. As prices increase, clustering around smaller numbers like 5 or 10 reduces. Larger psychological barriers, such as 100 and 500, emerge as significant points of clustering. Price Clustering at Higher Levels (≥ $10,000 USD): At these price levels, clustering becomes even more prominent around major round numbers like 10,000, 20,000, etc. The last two digits 00 become much more frequent, and there is almost no clustering at digits like 5 or 1. Clustering becomes very strong at larger round figures, with a strong psychological barrier hypothesis at play. Summary of Clustering at Different Levels: Low Prices (<$10): Clustering at 5, 10, 50, and 100. Mid Prices ($100–$1,000): Strong clustering at 00, 50, and 25. High Prices (≥$10,000): Dominant clustering around 00 and multiples of 1,000 (e.g., 10,000, 20,000). █ Conclusion Price clustering is more than just an academic concept; it’s a practical tool that can significantly enhance your trading strategy. By understanding how prices tend to cluster around psychological levels, adapting your approach based on time frames, and recognizing the impact of Bitcoin’s price level, you can make more informed trading decisions. By integrating these insights into your trading plan, you’re not only aligning your strategy with the behavior of the broader market but also positioning yourself to capitalize on key price movements. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting out, the knowledge of price clustering can help you navigate the volatile Bitcoin market with greater confidence and precision. █  Reference Xin, L., Shenghong, L., & Chong, X. (2020). Price clustering in Bitcoin market—An extension. Finance Research Letters, 32, 101072. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Zeiierman
7
Think in Probabilities Embracing Uncertainty Your Key To SuccessPicture this: You’re at your trading desk, eyes on the charts, heart pounding as the market swings unpredictably. Do you feel that fear creeping in? Now, imagine knowing that this unpredictability doesn’t have to scare you. Instead, it can be the key to your success. Let's dive into why thinking in probabilities and staying calm in the face of uncertainty can turn trading from a gamble into a calculated path to consistent success. Many traders struggle with uncertainty because they lack a solid, tested system. Trading randomly or without a proven strategy leads to anxiety and inconsistency. But once you have a reliable system that suits your lifestyle and mindset, and you fully understand your edge, you realize that while the outcome of each trade is random, the probabilities of your trading system will work out for you over time. The Role of Probabilities in Trading Trading isn’t about predicting the next big market move; it’s about understanding the odds and working them to your advantage. Each trade is a small part of a larger statistical framework, where the focus shifts from individual outcomes to the bigger picture. Why Is Learning To Think In Probabilities So Important For Trading Success? Reduces Emotional Bias : By thinking in probabilities, you understand that each trade is just one in a series of many. This helps reduce emotional reactions to individual losses or gains, such as revenge trading, doubling up on position sizing, or even smashing your new iPhone against the wall (been there, LOL). For example, if you know that your strategy wins 60% of the time, you won't be devastated by a single loss. You'll see it as part of the statistical outcome. Encourages Rational Decision-Making: Knowing your strategy has an actual edge helps you stick to your plan, even during losing streaks, and avoid impulsive decisions. To know your edge, you need to do plenty of backtesting and forward testing so you can gain confidence in the system. For instance, if you experience a string of losses, understanding that this is normal and statistically probable helps you remain disciplined and not deviate from your strategy. Builds Confidence in Your System : Confidence comes from knowing your strategy is backtested and has a proven edge over a large number of trades. This knowledge helps you stay disciplined and focused on executing your plan. For example, if your backtesting shows a positive expectancy over 1,000 trades, you can trust your system even when short-term results are unfavorable. Things That Have Helped Me Over the Years to Deal With the Uncertainty of Trading Finding or Developing a System/Strategy That Suits You : As humans, we are all different, and this is especially true in trading. Some people are happy to be in and out of the market fast (scalpers) and have the ability to make big decisions quickly under pressure. Others are slower thinkers and like to make decisions carefully, staying in the market for a longer period of time (swing traders). You need to find what you're best at and stick to it. If you have a busy life with work and family, maybe swing trading suits you. If you’re younger and not as busy, then perhaps scalping is your style. Playing Strategy Games and Games of Chance : This may not be something you've heard before, but I've met many traders, including myself, who have found that games like poker can really help your trading by teaching you to think in probabilities. Another game I love to play is chess, as it encourages you to think ahead, and I’ve found it has helped me in my trading over the years. Practicing Visualization : If you've ever read anything on the subconscious mind, you know it’s responsible for 95% of all your automatic behaviors, especially in trading. The subconscious doesn’t distinguish between what is real and what is imagined. This is why visualization is such a powerful tool to help you embrace market uncertainty. By visualizing yourself placing trades confidently, managing risks well, and handling outcomes calmly, you prepare your mind for real trading scenarios. This mental practice reinforces your belief in your system and prepares you for the market's ups and downs. Books That Helped Me Think in Probabilities Reading has been an invaluable part of my journey to understanding probabilities. Here are some books that have profoundly impacted my trading mindset: "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman This book helped me understand how cognitive biases affect decision-making and how to overcome them by thinking more strategically. "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Taleb's insights into the role of chance and randomness in our lives and the markets were eye-opening and changed how I view risk and probability. "Beat the Dealer" by Edward O. Thorp Although this book is about blackjack, Thorp’s exploration of probability and statistics offers valuable lessons for trading. "The Theory of Poker" by David Sklansky Sklansky breaks down the mathematics of poker, showing how to make decisions based on probability, a skill directly applicable to trading. "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham This classic on value investing emphasizes the importance of long-term thinking and understanding market probabilities. "A Man for All Markets" by Edward O. Thorp This autobiography offers a fascinating look at how Thorp applied probability theory to beat the casino and the stock market. "Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind" by Yuval Noah Harari Harari’s book provides context on human behavior and decision-making, offering insights into the psychological elements of trading. "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver Silver’s exploration of how we can better understand predictions and probabilities is highly relevant to making informed trading decisions. "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan M. Gardner This book teaches how to improve forecasting skills through careful analysis and thinking in probabilities. Thinking in probabilities was a game-changer for me. It shifted my focus from trying to predict every market move to playing the long game. By embracing this mindset, I turned fear into confidence and uncertainty into strategy. Remember, trading isn’t about guessing the market. It’s about responding with a clear, composed mind. Trust your strategy, know your edge, and let the probabilities work in your favor. This approach transformed my trading journey, and it can do the same for you. Happy trading!
Editors' picks
Education
by TheFxAce
10
Trading BTC : Dunning Kruger Effect 🐸Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 Have you ever wondered what it takes to be a good and profitable trader? Have you wondered how long it will take before you would have mastered the art f trading? Myself and Dunning Kruger will let you in on a little secret - the journey of pretty much every person that has ever started trading is explained in the chart above. The Dunning-Kruger effect, in psychology, is a cognitive bias whereby people with limited knowledge (in a given intellectual or social domain) greatly overestimate their own knowledge or competence in that domain relative to objective criteria or to the performance of their peers or of people in general. This happens in trading all the time. In fact, we probably all started there if we're being honest . So - What causes the Dunning-Kruger effect? Confidence is so highly prized that many people would rather pretend to be smart or skilled than risk looking inadequate and losing face. Even smart people can be affected by the Dunning-Kruger effect because having intelligence isn’t the same thing as learning and developing a specific skill. Many individuals mistakenly believe that their experience and skills in one particular area are transferable to another. Many people would describe themselves as above average in intelligence, humor, and a variety of skills. They can’t accurately judge their own competence, because they lack metacognition, or the ability to step back and examine oneself objectively. In fact, those who are the least skilled are also the most likely to overestimate their abilities. This also relates to their ability to judge how well they are doing their work, hobbies, etc. The Dunning-Kruger effect results in what’s known as a double curse : Not only do people perform poorly, but they are not self-aware enough to judge themselves accurately—and are thus unlikely to learn and grow. So how can we prevent ourselves from falling into this trap? Here's a few things to keep in mind: To avoid falling prey to the Dunning-Kruger effect, you should honestly and routinely question your knowledge base and the conclusions you draw, rather than blindly accepting them. As David Dunning proposes, people can be their own devil’s advocates, by challenging themselves to probe how they might possibly be wrong. Individuals could also escape the trap by seeking others whose expertise can help cover their own blind spots, such as turning to a colleague or friend for advice or constructive criticism. Continuing to study a specific subject will also bring one’s capacity into a clearer focus. 💭Practice these habits to ultimately escape the double curse: - Continuous learning. This will keep your mindset open to new possibilities, whilst increasing your knowledge over time. - Pay attention to who's talking about what. Is the accountant talking about bodybuilding? - Don't be overconfident. This is self explanatory. I hope you enjoyed this post today! Please give us a thumbs up 👌 _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Editors' picks
Education
by CryptoCheck-
60
🧠 THE CYCLE OF MARKET EMOTIONS📍 When starting a trading career, much emphasis is placed on trading strategies, technical analysis, and indicators, which is important. However, as traders gain experience, they may discover that analysis and strategy become more intuitive as they find their specialization in the market. On the contrary, trading psychology often demands significant effort from most traders. It is often overlooked that trading psychology is developed through practice. Some argue that simulated trading lacks realism and cannot adequately prepare traders for the emotional aspects of trading. However, this holds true only if traders have not yet learned to trust a tested strategy. The market emotions run the gamut from fear, despair, hope, anxiety, and even euphoria. It is so common to experience these emotions that you can actually expect them to occur in a predictable cycle. We call it the market of emotional cycle. 📌 Think of it this way: we all start out with optimism – optimism that we are going to make lots of money in the market. Over time we may have trades go in our favor and make lots of money. However, if we aren’t in tune with the normal price cycle of the market, we can ride our profits all the way back down, leading us to despair. The goal, of course, is to become a trader who learns to manage his emotions and make wise decisions. Instead of hope and fear and greed, become a process-oriented trader who can trust his judgment on the market. In the upcoming TV ideas, we will make a deep dive on each parts that effect the trader's psychology and why it does so. 👤 @QuantVue 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
Market Psychology and Your Trading Decisions✨ Unlocking the secrets of market psychology is vital for successful trading. Here's why: 🔹 Emotions at Play: Fear, greed, and herd mentality significantly influence your trading choices. 🔹 Rational Thinking: Being aware of market psychology helps you maintain a calm and logical approach to decision-making. 🔹 Trend Spotting: Recognizing market psychology enables you to identify potential market trends and reversals. 🔹 Tackling Biases: Self-assessment must consider three biases: 1️⃣ Confirmation Bias: Avoid favoring information that confirms pre-existing beliefs. 2️⃣ Overconfidence Bias (Dunning-Kruger Effect): Beware of overestimating your abilities as a novice trader. 3️⃣ Loss Aversion Bias: Recognize the inclination to avoid losses more than seeking gains. 🔹 Prospect Theory: Understand how prospect theory shapes decision-making, where individuals take risks to evade losses rather than pursue equivalent gains. 🔹 Stay Informed: Stay updated with market news to avoid impulsive reactions to short-term fluctuations. 🔹 Empower Your Trades: An understanding of market psychology empowers you to make informed and rational trading decisions. ✨ Harness the power of market psychology for long-term trading success! 📈💪
TVC:DXYEducation
by Moon_SmartMoney
Overcoming Regret: How To Move Forward and SucceedRegret is a common emotion experienced by traders when they miss out on opportunities or a trade they took doesn't go the way they believed it would. It is a feeling of disappointment or dissatisfaction with a decision that has been made or not made. In trading, the fear of missing out (FOMO) can often lead to irrational decision-making, which leads to missed opportunities or poorly timed entries. Today we will explore the psychology of regret in trading and provide tips for dealing with missed opportunities. The psychology of regret: Regret is a complex emotion that can be triggered by many factors when trading. In trading, regret is frequently stirred up by missed opportunities. When an opportunity slips past a trader, they may experience disappointment, frustration, and anger. These emotions can lead to irrational decision-making, often resulting in further missed opportunities or poorly executed trades. One of the reasons why traders experience regret is due to the phenomenon of counterfactual thinking. Counterfactual thinking is the process of imagining alternative outcomes to past events. When traders miss out on an opportunity, they may engage in counterfactual thinking by imagining what could have been if they had made a different decision. This can lead to feelings of regret and disappointment. Another reason why traders experience regret is due to cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance is the discomfort that arises when one feels a conflict between beliefs and actions. When traders miss out on an opportunity, they may experience cognitive dissonance because their faith in what they see in the market may conflict with their actions. How do we deal with missed opportunities? Dealing with missed opportunities is a principal aspect of trading psychology and maintaining a positive mindset. Your trading strategy and plan may have a strong foundation, but our own mind is often the biggest obstacle we face in trading. Here are some tips for dealing with missed opportunities. Accept that missed opportunities are a part of trading: Missed opportunities are a part of trading. No trader can catch every opportunity that arises in the market. Accepting this fact can help traders cope with the disappointment and frustration that can manifest when opportunities are missed. If we do not recognize this we may start to make brash decisions, which can lead to over-trading. Overtrading can lead to losses that may impact your trading mindset, more negatively than simply missing an opportunity. Learn from missed opportunities: Missed opportunities can be a valuable learning experience for traders. By analyzing the reasons why an opportunity was missed, traders can learn from their mistakes and improve their decision-making in the future. However, it is important to be careful with this, one or two missed opportunities do not mean you need to question your entire strategy. It is important to take a step back and objectively look at what happened and analyze if there were possible opportunities for improvement. Focus on the present moment: Focusing on the present moment can help traders avoid counterfactual thinking. Do not get sucked into making FOMO decisions and entering trades at poorly executed times. Instead of dwelling on missed opportunities, traders should focus on the current market conditions. As traders, we need to be forward-looking to explore new opportunities that can be confirmed by a robust yet simple trading system. Talk it out with other traders or a trading community: Talking to other traders or a trading community can help traders deal with missed opportunities and regret. Other traders can provide support, advice, and a fresh perspective on the given situation. You might be surprised to find out you are not alone in how you feel about missed opportunities. A trading community can also offer a sense of belonging and understanding, which can be helpful in managing other difficult emotions when trading. Conclusion Regret is a complex emotion that can be triggered by a variety of factors when trading, and if you have felt it, you are definitely not alone. Dealing with missed opportunities is a critical part of trading psychology as it happens to everyone at every skill level. By accepting that missed opportunities are a part of trading, learning from missed opportunities, focusing on the present moment, and talking to others, traders can cope with the disappointment and frustration that comes with missed opportunities and improve their decision-making in the future.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by LeafAlgo
3
Stock Market AnimalsThe stock market animals roam the financial landscape, representing optimism or pessimism. These animal metaphors capture the sentiment and beliefs behind the market participants who often try to outsmart each other through their edge in the market. Here is a list of 7 most popular animal metaphors in the stock market. Maybe it can help some traders to look at themselves in the mirror. 🐮Bulls🐮 Its true that at some point everybody would have been a bull in the stock market but here we are talking about the hardcore bulls who are quintessential symbol of rising market. They never go short on the market and make money from the escalating prices of the stocks. This is because they are always overtly positive about the economy and the companies in which they invest. Undoubtedly, bulls are responsible for the buying pressure in the market. 🐻Bears🐻 Needless to say, bears are exactly the opposite of bulls. They never go long and make money from falling stock prices. Their pessimistic and cautionary view about the markets glue them to their short positions. Thus, bears keep on creating selling pressure in the markets. 🐕Wolf🐕 Wolves are neither bulls nor bears but at the same time they are the both. Wolves are shrewd animals who always seek profit making opportunities on both sides of the market. Due to their aggressive trading they quickly adapt to the changing market conditions. They are able to take advantage of momentum, volatility and short-term price discrepancies. They tend to quietly wait for opportunities rather than hopping on to them. 🐢Turtle🐢 Turtles by their very nature believe in slow money-making ideology. They are the most patient ones among all the other categories. Generally, they marry their investments with a longer-term perspective. They take stock splits, bonuses and pocket dividends to make money. Turtles are steady buyers as well as steady sellers. 🐰Rabbit🐰 Rabbits are the most popular trading creatures. They are Intraday hoppers who trade in both the directions. They may be bullish at 10am and bearish at 10:05am. They believe in small but quick money-making ideology. Characterized as least patient among all the other types of market participants, they are just the opposite of turtles. Generally, they are pushed by the market sentiment to take a large number of trades during the day. However, they square off all profit/loss making positions before market close. They don’t restraint themselves from using a whole lot of indicators and strategies to make buy and sell decisions. Unfortunately, most rabbits lose money in the market. 🐔Chicken🐔 They are risk-averse creatures who believe in preserving their capital. Market volatility and momentum are not their cup of tea. They invariably take small risk and make smaller money. A small price fluctuation, on either side, may throw them out of the trade. 🦈Shark🦈 Sharks are the market manipulators. With their exceptional potential to drive or hold the prices to certain levels, they look for opportunities to trap weak traders on the wrong side of the market and exploit their fear or greed. Trading pools, large traders and prop firms etc. fall into this category. What makes them different from the rest of the market participants is their access to more accurate market data and mammoth sized Gigabucks at their disposal. I would not ask anybody's (predictable) type but would say that there is always room for improvement. It just needs : ⚡Realization on your part to recognize yourself. ⚡Commitment to follow the discipline needed to transform yourself. Anyways, which one do you like to become. Write in the comment section below. Thanks for reading. Do like for more educational stuff in future. Disclaimer: These metaphors are not created by me but views are personal.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
7
The Psychology Of A Market CycleThe psychology of a market cycle refers to the emotional and psychological states that investors and traders go through as they react to market conditions. Here is a short summary of each stage of the market cycle: 🔵 Disbelief: At this stage, market participants are skeptical about the potential for a market rally or recovery. They may be hesitant to invest or trade, as they do not believe that the market has the potential to improve. 🔵 Hope: As market conditions begin to improve, investors and traders may start to feel more hopeful about the future. They may start to see opportunities for profit and become more willing to take risks. 🔵 Belief: At this stage, market participants start to believe that the market will continue to improve. They may become more confident in their investment decisions and become more willing to hold onto their positions for longer periods of time. 🔵 Euphoria: As the market continues to rise, investors and traders may become overly optimistic and start to believe that the market will continue to rise indefinitely. This can lead to excessive risk-taking and overconfidence. 🔵 Anxiety: As market conditions start to deteriorate, investors and traders may become anxious about the potential for losses. They may start to question their investment decisions and become more hesitant to take risks. 🔵 Denial: As market conditions continue to worsen, some investors and traders may start to deny that the market is in a downturn. They may continue to hold onto their positions in the hope that the market will recover. 🔵 Panic: At this stage, market participants may become panicked about the potential for further losses. They may start to sell their positions in a rush to get out of the market. 🔵 Capitulation: As market conditions reach their lowest point, investors and traders may give up hope and sell their positions, even at a loss. This is known as capitulation. 🔵 Anger: After the market has bottomed out, some investors and traders may feel angry about their losses and the perceived market manipulation or wrongdoing that they believe caused the market crash. 🔵 Depression: After experiencing significant losses, some investors and traders may feel depressed and lose motivation to engage in further investment or trading activities. 🔵 Disbelief: As market conditions begin to improve again, some investors and traders may return to a state of disbelief and skepticism about the potential for a sustained market rally. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
The Psychology of The Market Cycle Explained The market cycles can be explained from the psychology side of the average investor. Throughout the various stages that develop in the market, the investor's emotions are also cyclical according to the "mood" of the market. Market movements are explained by the investor when often hope and fear motivate his thoughts and actions and can predict his future actions. Throughout the various stages that develop in the market, the investor's emotions are also cyclical according to the "mood" of the market. The range of emotions ranges from despair to euphoria, and investors usually drive the wrong actions. Awareness of the psychological side of the masses helps to avoid the effects of negative or positive sentiment and remain feckless on the market. In addition, we can also identify a stage or strengthen our position on the state of the market, explaining investors' feelings. Once you understand this chart, you can control your emotions and deal without your hurt and with only your mind. As this market cycle chart is repeating all the time, if you understand where you are located in the graph at any moment, you can take a cold decision of buy or sell a particular asset to maximize gains.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by TopTradingSignals
3
Why Rice Prices Determine the Direction of Interest Rates?Recently, I received questions asking my opinion on their borrowing cost, if they should go for fixed or float rates. We somehow know there is inflation, but not exactly sure how long it will last and how bad it will get. Because higher inflation leads to higher interest rates. While I cannot advise them as I do not have a banking license to do so. However, I can point them to the commodity markets, I hope by doing so, it can help them to understand and read into the direction of interest rates with greater clarity. Background on edible commodities: Rice is a staple in the diets of more than half of the world’s population, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. Annual production of milled rice tops 480 million metric tons, which makes it the third most-produced grain in the world after corn and wheat. An increase in rice prices or edible commodities, it will really add pressure to the existing global inflationary pressure. Hardship will be more intense especially compare to other commodities like crude oil. In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars, but not without food. Therefore, when food prices become much more expensive, the central banks immediate and urgent measures is to counter it by rising interest rates. Content: . Why edible commodities determine the direction of interest rates? . Technical studies . How to hedge or buy them? Rice Market: 91 Metric Tons $0.005 = US$10 Example - $0.01 = US$20 $18.00 = 1800 x US$20 = US$18,000 From $18 to $19 = US$10,000 If you are trading this market for the short-term, do remember to use live data than delay ones. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CBOT:ZR1!Education
by konhow
Volatility Breakout Trading ExplainedIn this post, I'll be taking you through a step by step guide on what the volatility breakout trading strategy is, and how you could incorporate it in your own trading style. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk. The Volatility Breakout Strategy - This strategy was designed by Larry Williams, a legendary trader. - The premise of this strategy is based on trends; what goes up, continues to go up - Based on this idea, the calculation and strategy is actually quite simple: Strategy - The Range can be calculated by subtracting the values of the daily high from the daily low; Range = High - Low - Base Price, or Entry Price = Previous Day's Candle Close + (Range * K), with K being a constant of 0.6 to represent the noise ratio. - If today's price exceeds the base price, you enter a position. - The next day, you sell all your positions at the daily open price. Example - The diagram above demonstrates an example case - We have an asset that had a daily range of $100. - Calculating the base price, we get $1020. - This means that if the price exceeds $1020 on the second day, we buy the asset and ride the momentum. - On the third day, we sell all positions at the market open price. - If the price of the asset reaches $1100 on the third day, that gives us 7.84% returns. - If it retraces back to $1000 in its opening price, we have a 1.96% loss. - This demonstrates that not only is the risk/reward ratio optimal, we have a statistical edge in our position because we're following the trend Strengths of the Volatility Breakout Strategy - Because we're trading purely based on volatility, and trading short term by selling all positions the next day, it helps us not to be swayed by market psychology. - Trends are a reflection of market psychology, and as human traders, we can get swayed by our emotions of greed and fear - However, through a systematic approach based on precise entry and exit points and strategies, we can ignore the noise from the market. - Because the trend is our friend, unlike reversal trading strategies, we have a statistical edge in our position, and risk/reward ratio. Conclusion Implementing this strategy directly in today's market might not be as effective, but an understanding of how legendary traders approached the market back in the day can certainly help you understand what you need to do to methodically approach the market. Taking your emotions out of the game, and having strict rules and invalidation points are key to becoming a successful trader. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
8
4 Ways to Trade Bitcoin!Hello my small TV community! Today I've prepared a chart where I will be showing you my approach to current Bitcoin price action and how I usually trade. I love to trade ranges as I have a lot success with them, not only with Crypto assets. Usually I am not opened to all four trades, (usually I just follow the trend, when the overall trend is uptrend I just look for buy opportunities) but this time it's different. Why it's different? Because Bitcoin is saying that the overall daily trend is a downtrend, meanwhile the overall weekly trend is an uptrend so I am opened to all of these four trades! Mixed signals. I only look to buy or sell at the edges of the range, I never enter a trade in the middle of the range. I wait for a better opportunity, rather than taking a bad one. (Even if it would lead to a profit!) Which one is your favorite, or which one will you be taking? Let me know.
Education
by TiborVrbovsky
3
ETH/USD: Market Cycles and Investor Sentiment ExplainedIn this post, I’ll be shedding light on market cycles for cryptocurrencies, specifically Ethereum in this case, and how investors’ sentiments are reflected at certain phases of the cycle. Market Cycle Explained - We can refer to the graph in green, which demonstrates the overall market cycle - Markets undergo phases of contractions and expansions, forming peaks during the expansionary phase, and troughs during the contractionary phase - Overall, the market moves in an uptrend, forming higher lows and higher highs throughout Market Sentiment Explained - Along with fluctuations in price movement caused by volatility, traders’ and investors’ psychological responses are also reflected in the chart - Prior to a bullrun, market participants are at a phase of disbelief. They think that prices will get rejected at resistance levels, and fail to break out - After a breakout takes place, hope starts to settle in. People think that maybe a recovery to previous high levels are possible - Then comes optimism. People start seeing the bullish trend that has been confirmed, and start thinking that this is the beginning of a real bullish rally. - Afterwards, we have the belief phase, which is when people start to get fully invested in the asset or security. This is also where people start coming up with extremely bullish price targets for the long term. - The thrill phase. People start getting extremely greedy at this point, and start buying more on margin, leveraging debt to increase their positions. At this point, prices are still going up on a daily basis, and people are still profiting from the immense buy volume, so they lead in their friends and family to invest as well. - Then comes one of the most important phases, euphoria. At this point, people think they’re geniuses, and that they’ll be set for retirement next month. This is the phase were everyone is bullish, and the only thing leading price action is the momentum caused by new buyers - The price of the asset tops out and corrects, reflecting a complacent sentiment. People just consider it as a healthy correction, and that the rally is deemed to continue upwards. - Prices correct even further, stirring anxiety among investors. People start getting liquidated on their margin positions, and realize that the correction is extending further than they anticipated - The denial phase then kicks in, as prices drop further. Investors refuse to accept that the trend has reversed. - Prices drop even further, breaking all support zones, getting closer to new lows. Investors who have bought the top sell their positions here. - Due to mass sell volume, capitulation takes place, and investors start thinking that the asset was never a solid investment decision. - As prices consolidate around the bottom without any signs of a trend reversal, anger starts seeping in. People blame the market for being too manipulative, and the government for not regulating enough, and preventing such capitulation from happening in the first place - As the phase of consolidation continues, investors experience depression. A sense of betrayal and self-pity, as they think of how they can retrieve their initial investment back. - While they go through this negative phase of investor sentiment, prices break out once again, marking the beginning of the second disbelief phase. Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum is demonstrating this market cycle on the weekly chart - It has currently broken out of major resistance levels, looking to continue its rally upwards - Important resistance zones to keep an eye on are: $490, $620, and $800 - Important support zones to keep an eye on are: $470, $440, and $355 - Based on market cycles, as Bitcoin’s rally tops out and prices start consolidating, we should see capital flow into altcoins such as Ethereum - Especially with Eth 2.0, an event in which the shift from proof of work to proof of state takes place, we could expect bullish news to drive prices upwards. Conclusion In summary, understanding general market cycles and investors’ sentiment is extremely important. Possessing the mental fortitude to buy when others are selling is also an important feat that an investor/trader should possess to succeed. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
46
Why Beginners Lose Money Even in an UptrendIf you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight. In this post, i'll be focusing on the psychology aspect of trading and investing that most people overlook. Contrary to common belief, in my personal opinion, understanding a trader and investor's own psychology is significantly more important than educating oneself on trading techniques and learning how to read financials. 'Buy low sell high' is the motto. As simple as it sounds, why do most people lose money trading or investing? There are four major mistakes that most beginners make: 1. Excessive Confidence This stems from the idea that people think of themselves as special. They think they can 'crack the code' in the stock market that 99.9% of people fail to, and eventually make a living trading and investing. However, taking into consideration the fact that more people lose money in the market, this form of wishful thinking is the same mentality as going into a casino feeling lucky. You may actually get lucky and win big the first few times, but in the end, the house always wins. 2. Distorted Judgements While simplicity is key, the approach most beginners make in trading and investing are too simplistic, to the extend where it's hard to even call it a trading logic or reason to invest. They spot a few reoccurring patterns within the market, and this is almost as if they discovered fire. It doesn't take long to realize that the "pattern" they spotted was never based on any solid reasoning, or worse, wasn't even a pattern at all in the first place. 3. Herding Behavior The fundamentals of this is also deeply rooted in a gambling mindset. Beginners are attracted to the idea of a single trade or investment that will make them a millionaire. However, they fail to realize that there is no such thing. Trading and investing is nothing like winning the lottery. It's about making consistent profits that compound throughout time. While people should definitely look for assets that have high liquidity and some volatility , the get-rich-quick mentality drags irrational beginners into overextended/overbought stocks that eventually drop drastically. 4. Risk Aversion Risk aversion is a psychological trait embedded within all of mankind's DNA. Winning is fun, but we can't tolerate losing. We tend to avoid risk, even when the potential reward is worth pursuing. As such, many beginners take extremely small amounts of profits, in fear that they might close their position at a loss, trading with a terrible risk reward ratio. In the long run, their willingness to not take any risks leads to losses. Depending on the price action, they also go through seven phases of psychological stages: - Anxiety - Interest - Confidence - Greed - Doubt - Concern - Regret As we can see in the chart for the S&P500 (SPX) , there are price points at which beginners would buy during their 'confidence' phase, and sell during their 'concern' phase. As a result, they would be losing money even when the market moves in an upward trend. Even when the market is at a clear uptrend, it goes through phases of impulse moves, and corrective moves. However, as beginners are swayed away by their emotions, they fail to recognize the overall trend, resulting in them buying high and selling low . Conclusion The most important thing that beginners need to realize before they start trading or investing is that human beings are emotional beings, and as a result, they are not different from the rest of the people in the market. All successful traders and investors throughout history have had superb meta-cognition. They understand their own psychology, as well as that of other participants in the market, allowing them to make rational decisions with patience, rather than hasty decisions based on emotions.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
121
⚡Trader's psychological stages in the market⚡👋🏻👋🏻👋🏻Hello, dear dear friends! 💓 Today I would like to share with you ⚡ Trader's psychological stages in the market ⚡ 💥 OPTIMISM. It all starts with a positive outlook on the market situation, which leads the trader to open a deal. Trader in anticipation of future success. 💥EXCITATION. The market begins to move in the predicted direction. The trader anticipates events and hopes that success is ensured. 💥TREMBLING. The market continues to move in the direction the trader needs, this is a moment of joyful fading. At this stage, the trader is fully confident in his trading system. 💥EUPHORIA. Point of maximum financial risk. Investments turn into quick and easy returns. Trader completely ignores risk. 💥ANXIETY. Oh no, the market is turning around! The first signs of movement appear not in favor of the trader. But he does not notice this and believes that the market will recover and the trend will continue. 💥NEGATION. The expected market recovery did not happen. The trader does not accept what is happening and remains in position. 💥FEAR. Reality dictates its own rules, and the trader begins to realize that he is not as smart as he previously thought. Instead of confidence in success, thoughts begin to get confused. 💥HOPELESSNESS. At this point, all profits are lost. The trader had a chance to take profits, but he missed it. Not knowing how to proceed further, he is trying to do everything to return at least to the breakeven point. 💥PANIC. The most emotional period. At this stage, the trader feels his ignorance and helplessness and is wholly in the grip of the market. The mind is paralyzed, which sometimes leads to meaningless actions in the market. 💥CAPITULATION. The trader has reached the limit of patience and closes the position so as not to increase losses anymore. 💥DISAPPOINTED. After exiting the market, the trader no longer has the slightest desire to enter into transactions. 💥DEPRESSION. The trader begins to blame himself for the stupidity of why he did not close the deal on time. Some choose the right path and begin to analyze what went wrong. Real traders are born precisely at this stage, studying past mistakes and drawing conclusions. 💥HOPE. “I can still do it!” In the end, the trader returns to the realization that there really are cycles in the market. He begins to analyze new opportunities. 💥FAITH. At this stage, the trader restores faith in his future in the market and starts trading again. The stages considered by us well demonstrate how psychology influences trading. 80% of success in the market directly depends on the correct psychological state of the trader. 😉😉And at what stage are you now?🧐 Share in the comments✍🏻 Stay with me💋 Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣 Other my psychological idea👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
33
MARKET PSYCHOLOGY & CYCLEYou will often come across the term market psychology. This is different from your personal psychology. Market psychology is the same as market sentiment we just discussed. Market psychology is the overall feeling that the financial market is experiencing at any given particular time. There are several factors that contribute to this market psychology and include economic circumstances, expectations, fear, greed etc. All these factors taken together actually contribute to the trading patterns of the investors. There is nothing much you can do about this because, apart from hardcore economic circumstances, human psychology also plays a very vital role in determining the overall market sentiment. The problem is that all humans cannot be rational. Many of the traders will be driven by emotions like fear and greed. As an individual trader, no matter how rational you are, the moment you see that majority of people thinking that market will move in a particular direction, your rational mind will face a revolt from your emotional side and even if you know that majority of the people are thinking wrong, you may still end up trading in the direction they are trading. It is because of this weird conflict between rational mind and emotional side that you cannot really depend solely on fundamental analysis of market. Often times, it is very important to go for technical analysis too because it will tell you, without taking account of emotions, the direction or the pattern that the market is following. Technical analysis is based on historical price data. This is crude data we are dealing. They are numbers that are brutally true. The numbers don’t speak emotions. But again, technical analysis cannot alone give you the true picture and you will have to use fundamental analysis at times. So, market psychology can be like a dreadful nightmare but that is what you need to deal with by balancing between your fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Knowledge and education is key to success in binary options market. You cannot afford to be irrational but you cannot even ignore those irrational traders who can and do affect the market as a whole.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by CryptoC77
4
Learn To Identify & Trade The Head & Shoulders Pattern Properly.Head & Shoulders Pattern 1. Introduction 2. Definition 3. Qualities 4. Example 5. Conclusion 1. Introduction I realize the Head & Shoulders pattern is a common pattern most traders know. However, I feel that too many traders don't identify them properly nor realize the actual makeup of a H & S. There are two types of Head & Shoulders: Inverse, and regular. According to samuraitradingacademy.com accuracy for the Head & Shoulders Pattern is 83.04% & Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern is 83.44% . In crypto though it may be lower due to volume volatility. For this educational idea I am using an old example of a H & S and will be only providing examples for a bearish H & S. The same rules apply for a inverse. I am quoting sites here that I will link. 2. Definition A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline. As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with a example. 3. Qualities Prior Trend : It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter). Left Shoulder : While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact. Head : From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy. Right Shoulder : The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline. Neckline : The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. Sometimes more than one low point can be used to form the neckline. Volume : As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head, then decreases during the advance of the right shoulder. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Nick_Core
27