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Japan 225

Ascending Triangle in Nikkei/Yen Futures: A 2025 Bullish Setup?1. Introduction The Nikkei/Yen Futures, a crucial instrument for traders aiming to capture movements in Japan’s equity index and its currency dynamics, presents an intriguing setup as we step into 2025. An ascending triangle pattern, a classic bullish formation, is emerging on the chart, signaling a potential breakout to the upside. Adding to the technical allure is the depletion of sell unfilled orders (UFOs) within a significant price zone between 40,420 and 39,685. This critical area, revisited six times since late July 2024, has seen a steady reduction of unfilled sell orders, opening the possibility for bullish momentum to dominate. With the price currently hovering near the 39,685 level, the stage appears set for a breakout opportunity. 2. The Technical Setup The ascending triangle, characterized by a series of higher lows converging toward a horizontal resistance level, often signifies bullish pressure. In the case of the Nikkei/Yen Futures, the horizontal resistance resides near 39,685, the lower boundary of a key sell UFO zone. This resistance has been tested repeatedly since July 2024, with each revisit chipping away at the sell orders within the zone. Such behavior suggests diminishing selling pressure, setting the foundation for a breakout. The anticipated target for this breakout, calculated using Fibonacci projection, is set at 41,380—aligning with historical price action and technical projections. Key Contract Specifications: o Regular Nikkei/Yen Futures (NIY1!) Contract Size: ¥500 x Nikkei 225 index Tick Size: ¥5 Point Value: ¥2,500 Margin Requirement: Approx. $ 1,500,000 JPY o Micro Nikkei/Yen Futures (MNI) Contract Size: ¥50 x Nikkei 225 index Tick Size: ¥5 Point Value: ¥250 Margin Requirement: Approx. $ 150,000 JPY These details ensure accessibility for both institutional and retail traders, with the micro contract enabling smaller capital commitments while maintaining exposure to the same underlying asset. 3. Forward-Looking Trade Plan The technical evidence supports a bullish trade plan for Nikkei/Yen Futures: Trade Direction: Long Entry Price: Above 39,685, confirming a breakout from the resistance level. Target Price: 41,380, based on Fibonacci projections. Stop Loss: 39,120, targeting a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio to manage risk effectively. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3:1 (Calculated: 41,380 - 39,685 = 1,695 reward; 39,685 - 39,120 = 565 risk). The trade parameters apply to both the standard and micro contracts, offering flexibility in position sizing. Traders with smaller accounts may opt for the micro contract to manage margin requirements while engaging in this high-potential setup. 4. Importance of Risk Management Risk management remains the cornerstone of any successful trading strategy, particularly when trading leveraged instruments like futures. Here are key considerations for managing risk in the Nikkei/Yen Futures trade setup: Stop-Loss Orders: Placing a stop-loss at 39,120 ensures a predefined risk level, protecting traders from unexpected market reversals. It’s vital to adhere to this level to maintain discipline and avoid emotional decision-making. Position Sizing: The availability of micro contracts (MNIY1!) allows traders to tailor their position size according to their account size and risk tolerance. For example, trading one micro contract involves a significantly smaller margin commitment compared to the regular contract, making it suitable for retail traders. Defined Risk Exposure: Leveraged products like futures can lead to substantial losses if risk is not clearly defined. Using stop-loss orders and trading within calculated risk parameters prevents the potential for undefined losses. Precise Entries and Exits: Setting the entry above 39,685 ensures a systematic approach to triggering the trade based on the expected breakout. Similarly, targeting 41,380 using Fibonacci projections ensures that profit objectives align with technical analysis rather than arbitrary levels. By prioritizing these aspects, traders can mitigate risks while maximizing the potential reward from this bullish setup. 5. Closing Remarks The Nikkei/Yen Futures seem to be poised for a potential breakout as we enter 2025, driven by a combination of technical factors and diminishing sell-side unfilled orders. The ascending triangle formation strengthens the bullish bias, with the calculated Fibonacci projection of 41,380 offering an attractive target. Both the standard and micro contracts cater to different trader profiles, allowing participation regardless of account size. As the price approaches the critical 39,685 level, traders are encouraged to stay vigilant, using real-time CME data to track developments and validate entry triggers. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:NIY1!Education
by traddictiv
Best Times To Play The Markets, Swing Trader Perspective.Here we have a chart of Nikkei 225 index on a 3 day chart. Nothing is more powerful than identifying potential trend reversals, notice that I said "potential". Nothing is guaranteed when it comes to trading, you will never be 100% winning in the markets. The only edge that you have when it comes to trading is identifying trend accumulation, distribution and risk management following an overall trend. If you apply S&R to a 5 min chart vs 1 week chart, which ones levels do you think will play a more valid role in the markets? The weekly will 100%! You better be a trained professional and have a good track record of experience if you think you're just going to show up to work everyday and try to scalp every single little move sitting in front of the monitor 24/7. I personally 100% believe the big picture is where it all counts. I believe the proper way to trade the markets is to use it as an investment vehicle to work for you over time. This is why on most of my charts you will see I'm a fan favorite of the daily chart and up. These timeframes are critical to identifying the major trends in the markets. You will be chasing your tail more than anything in a 5 minute timeframe and most likely realize why trading has such a high failure rate. Let the trade come to you! If you can learn how to manage risk and not let a bad trade get away from you, then you are already one major step ahead of the pack of failing retail traders. You see... this understanding to cut loss quick is more important than anything you will ever learn from the markets. The mentality of most retail traders is the famous "I want to get rich fast" mentality. When a trade goes against them, most have a tendency to hold onto that position with hope's to recover... this is how most blow their accounts. A lot of traders with this mentality tend to think they need to borrow money that they don't have from their broker, as if having more working capital will get them richer faster. If you can't trade with $25 in your account, chances are you probably don't need to use $25,000 to trade with. Most traders learn to become impatient with the market and use the lowest of timeframes where most of the noise in the markets occurs. Are their success stories of traders that made it as daytraders? ABSOLUTELY! I'm sure they went through years of training and learned to correct their failures. You can't let the markets beat you up if it goes against you and call it quits. You have to stay consistent and let every failure become a valuable learning lesson. It's going to take time, this is one of the hardest jobs on the planet if you choose to make it hard. ---------- So what do I look for? Like I said above I focus on trend trading from a technical analysis stand point. Observe the candles on the chart above. Green is buy pressure and red is sell pressure. Big bricks stronger pressure and compression doji bricks are weakened pressure. My goal at the end of the day is to look for the trend transitions at points of exhaustion. Notice how at the bottom of the crash the bricks began to compress to form a doji that shifted green, That's my transition. Look below and see the ema dots then also shot green and the custom rsi left oversold territory. That is your opportunity. You will manage your risk at these turning points. If you take a small hit and get stopped out, oh well. You managed risk and didnt let a trade get away from you. You can't control the market, you can only walk with it and not let your ego get in the way of trading. Now you see that we have tight compression forming up top of this major trend reversal from the bottom. Ema dots going red and the custom rsi is shifting down from overbought territory. These are the ideal times I look to trade. If I drop down to a daily I see that we have a valid Resistance level as price rejects off of it based off previous level. Will this Resistance hold strong to selloff? Who knows! The market makers will create the next move, not you. You have to play both sides when the time occurs. That Resistance is my edge. Price goes up and price goes down. In order for the price to go up or to go down it needs to transition in a sideways manner to accumulate or distribute in any market. My best chance of trading is finding these major potential reversal points, especially ones like this with such a tight compression and managing my risk. I will risk a small amount on a stop and diversify my portfolio. The market will not trend sideways and flatline forever. All you need to do is find these trend reversals, manage tight risk in anticipation to capture the next major trend. *This material is for educational purposes only
TVC:NI225Education
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
4
The Art of Missing The Big Bull Trend (Nikkei/Japan Example)Crisis or crash will happen from time to time. However, the funny thing is, human psychology is so fixated in "Avoiding the Pain" versus "Taking the Opportunities" when it is presented. Why people like Warren Buffett are the richest people in the world? Despite not using any form of technical analysis? Because fundamentals matters and capital flow matters. Yes, depression happens, crash happens, but market recovers soon after, and then stride to make newer high and new all time high. That is because market and capital follows the development in economy and as the world population grows, as emerging countries grow to become developed country, the total world GDP is increasing from time to time, so, it is natural for the global stock market to rise over LONG PERIOD OF TIME. Doesn't mean that people should buy at the market peak or market top. It just means the chances for market crash or market corrections are very low. Once every 10-20 years and the potential upside is always much much bigger than the downside. Market crash or depression means that stocks are cheap and provide a better entry point for people who can think long term enough. Such as those people who bought in 2009, 2002 Nasdaq, 1997 Asian stocks, 1987 crash, 1974 crash or 1932 great depression bottom. But, to stay in cash and wait patiently for this type of crash to happen can be painful. For example, people often talks about Japan 1988 bubble and how it was devastating for the Japan and all the ensuing lost decades. People didn't mention that Japan stock market or Nikkei increases 1000x from 1948 to 1988 in a 40 year bull market without any major corrections. Just think about it, Japan stock market did 1000x in 40 years and never had any major corrections. Eventually the trend will be over and that is the reasons why Japan is having a lost decades. Because the longer and the more you stretch, the longer it takes to recover. However, try to imagine this, from 1948 to 1980, if anyone get into the stock market, despite the lost decades, they are still UP. Because Nikkei never went below the 7000 level despite the crash and despite the 2008-2009 crisis. Just think about it, after 32 years of bull market, anyone who didn't invest in Japan stock market before 1980 will miss the gain forever. They will never be able to buy at that cheap level. Look at any stock market in the world, Dow Jones, and go 40 years back, do you have the chance to buy at that level again anymore? Maybe never forever. "But, everything will crash and collapse. It doesn't matter." Doomsday scenario means that we have OTHER THINGS to worry other than stock market. If the global economy crash and we entered into a global great depression that is the biggest ever in human history, then, gun and pistol rules the world, it doesn't matter if Dow is at 100,000 or 10,000 or 1,000 or 100. it doesn't matter, what happens to stock doesn't matter anymore because you might get killed first before your stocks got liquidated on margin. The point is, when they are too much fear, market doesn't go down or crash. Fear means everyone has sold out, no more sellers. When they are no more sellers, hard for something to go down and crash. I am not advocating to buy at market peak and market top. But looking at this example and other example, there is always a probability and chances that stock market will keep going up and break new all time high and go to a level that nobody thinks about. And even when the stock market crash, it may crash to level where most people don't even have the chances to buy. Look at nikkei example, look at dow and s&p 500 example. Plus, we are on the brink of Fourth Industrial Revolution 4.0, which includes many things and blockchain. The easiest and best bet for long term is to long everything that will benefit from IR4.0. Doesn't mean everything will go up. Some dinosours will die and will be replaced. Some will be value traps. Even in Japan, they were and are some 10-100 baggers in the stock market, despite the lost decades. Opportunities always exist. And the easiest way to get super rich is to have long term mindset and ride the trend as far as possible. Reference: stooq.com
INDEX:NKYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn735418
Elliott Wave & Intermarket Analysis For NIKKEI And USDJPYHello traders! Today we will talk about stocks, specifically Nikkei and why USDJPY can see higher prices. Well, as you may already know, in EW theory after a three-wave corrective decline, the trend should remain to the upside. This is what we see in the stock market all the time. However, Nikkei got our attention, because we can see a nice five-wave rally after that three-wave a-b-c correction, which means that Nikkei remains in uptrend, but after another three-wave correction in the lower degree, where ideal support would be here around 21450 - 21250 levels, just keep in mind that bullish confirmed can be only if it manages to turn back above 21770 region! In the right picture you can see tight positive correlation between NIKKEI and USDJPY, which means that if NIKKEI points higher, then even USDJPY can see higher prices, so don't be surprised if USDJPY remains bullish towards 109 area or higher! So, seems like risk-on sentiment may continue and when we are in risk-on, we usually see bullish stocks, which are followed by recovery on XXX/JPY crosses. That being said, be aware of a bullish continuation on stocks, while XXX/JPY cross pairs may see a bigger recovery! Be humble, trade smart and wait for the right sentiment to enter the market! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
CME:NKD1!Education
by ew-forecast
Nikkei: The Why's & How's I'm SHORT Now - Lesson In Wave TradingThere is NEVER a SURE 100% trade. And I'm not giving you one. Let's be clear about that. But as you can see on my chart, I'm sure enough about what is about to happen to the Nikkei that I am already SHORT on it TWICE OVER. And if prices do go the way I am projecting and they do pull back up and cover those HUGE gaps that were left behind, I'll be looking to sell again! But let me explain why I think this. What I see happening is that the recent high that was just established could very well have been the top of a wave (X) correction. This following the completion of a wave (W). That wave (W) was a sharp downward correction off the possible completion of that HUGE LONG impulse wave that lasted years! That wave (W) crash signaled the end of that MAJOR impulse wave. I had been calling that long impulse wave up as a wave (iii) and that crash down ended it. So why didn't I label that wave (W) drop as a completed wave (iv)? Well, it could be but highly unlikely given that it was so sharp and brief. Wave 4's don't tend to be that way. Wave 4-type corrections usually unfold in an long drawn out fashion. And if you have been counting waves as long as I have, you would've have seen this kind of price action take place hundreds if not thousands of times in the 26+ years that I have been trading. And I also seen just as many times what follows, too. So for arguments sake, let's just say that my wave count is correct and that was indeed a completed wave (iii) and what followed was a wave (W). After a wave (W), you would expect that the next wave will be a corrective wave (X). And what did follow was a very clear 3-wave corrective wave (X). But only one problem....that correction ended ABOVE the top of what I labeled as the wave (iii) end. So, that opened up 2 possibilities...1) that the new high was actually the end of that MAJOR wave (iii) or 2) as I see it, this overall correction following where I labeled the end of the wave (iii) is unfolding as an extended flat where the corrective wave (X) does exceed the high of the previous complete impulse wave. If that is the case, then we can already project what is to happen next and also project possible targets based on the rules that we have for extended flats and how they tend to unfold. Regardless, I trust my wave count because as you can see, I've hit 4 out of 4 trades pulling in over +8000 points over the course of this year JUST on the Nikkei alone! You don't even want to know how I did in the other major indexes as you would find it hard to believe! But that is besides the point. The point I'm trying to make here is that if you can apply a good, workable wave count combined with a good knowledge about price action, you can make trades like these. Those 4 out of 4 (100%) winning trades are just the ones that I have already closed and banked the profits on. That does not include the 2 OPEN SHORT trades that are already in profit now. If you find it hard to believe me, here is my chart I published to my followers back on September 12th showing my projections on what was to happen in the Nikkei. As you will see, that "explosion up" that ended what I have recently labeled the wave (X) I had already predicted would happen MONTHS AGO. That is the power of wave counting in action! There will be those that argue that my wave count is not correct and if you know me, you also know that I don't prescribe to the theory that you absolutely have the ABSOLUTE correct wave count in order to make money. No. You just have to have a workable wave count that puts you on the right side of the market. So if you believe me about what I see, you will want to wait for prices to pullback before you look to get SHORT. If you want to know more, PM me or see my signature box below for more info.
TVC:NI225Education
by EverythingForex
3
Prediction of the S&P500 and NIkkei based on financials and CPIIn the following content i will explain how you can forecast the market with CPI (inflation) and Financials: If we look at our figure we can say a few things, i will assume them below: 1. ABN AMRO (a dutch Financial) is highly correlated to the NIKKEI225 index. 2. Since nearly May 2016 we can see that the CPI (inflation)-chart has change 5 times. If we look at the Nikkei225 index we can see a few things: when the inflation in the US rose, the Nikkei225 fell 4 out 5 ( a chance of 90% or mathematical: a chance of 0.900). Using maths we know that ABN AMRO has an statistic correlation of 0.70 < r < 0.90 (70% - 90%) to the Nikkei225. Conclusion: The fInancials are following the NIkkei225, and in turn the Nikkei is following the US CPI (inflation) in a divergence/opposite movement. 3. We can use the inflaton from the US as a staircase for the movement in the S&P500 (on this moment a consolidating market) Sources: Bloomberg Markets, ING Technical Analyses NOTE: I don't make any predictions, making decisions based on my reports is at you'r own risk!
INDEX:NKYEducation
by tmp_cox