#AN017: Dirty Levels in Forex: How Banks Think
In the world of Forex, many retail traders are accustomed to seeking surgical precision in technical levels. Clear lines, pinpoint support, geometric resistance. But the truth is that the market doesn't move in such an orderly fashion.
I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, and I thank my Official Broker Partner in advance for supporting us in writing this article.
Institutions—banks, macro funds, hedge funds—don't operate to confirm textbook patterns. Instead, they work to manipulate, accumulate, and distribute positions as efficiently as possible. And often, they do so precisely at the so-called "dirty levels."
But what are these dirty levels?
They are price zones, not individual lines. They are areas where many traders place stop losses, pending orders, or breakout entries, making them an ideal target for institutional players. The concept of a dirty level arises from the fact that the price fails to respect the "perfect" level, but breaks it slightly and then retraces its steps: a false breakout, a trap, a hunt for stops.
Banks are very familiar with the behavior of retail traders. They have access to much more extensive information: aggregated positioning data, open interest in options, key levels monitored by algorithms. When they see concentrations of orders around a zone, they design actual liquidity triggers. They push the price just beyond the key level to "clean" the market, generate panic or euphoria, and then initiate their actual trade.
How are these levels identified?
A trader who wants to operate like an institution must stop drawing sharp lines and start thinking in trading bands. A dirty level is, on average, a zone 10 to 15 pips wide, around a psychological level, a previous high/low, or a breakout area. But technical structure alone is not enough. It's important to observe:
Volume density (volume profile or book visibility)
Aggregate retail sentiment (to understand where stops are placed)
Key option levels (especially gamma and maximum pain)
Rising open interest (as confirmation of institutional interest)
When a price approaches a dirty level, you shouldn't enter. You should wait for manipulation. The price often briefly breaks above that range, with a spike, and only then does it retrace its steps in the opposite direction. That's when banks enter: when retail has unloaded its positions or been forced into trading too late. The truly expert trader enters after the level has been "cleaned," not before.
This type of reading leads you to trade in the opposite way to the crowd. It forces you to think ahead: where they want you to enter... and where they actually enter. And only when you begin to recognize these invisible patterns, when you understand that the market is not linear but designed to deceive you, do you truly begin to become a professional trader.
Conclusion?
Trading isn't about predicting the price, but predicting the intentions of those who actually move the market. Dirty levels are key. Those who know how to read manipulation can enter profitably, before the real acceleration. And from that moment, they'll never look back.
Pepperstone
#AN016: Markets Brace for Tariffs, Forex Reaction
Markets have taken a cautious tone this week, as investors digest new developments on global trade and central bank prospects. A mix of US tariff threats, higher OPEC+ oil production and surprisingly strong eurozone investor sentiment is shaping currency flows.
I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, and I want to thank our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE in advance for helping me put this article together.
Investor confidence in the eurozone surged to a three-year high in July. This positive sentiment is reducing the European Central Bank's room to cut rates further, even as inflation remains subdued.
Meanwhile, US President Trump has ordered letters threatening tariffs of up to 70% for nations that fail to conclude trade deals by August 1, creating fresh uncertainty in diplomatic and trade circles.
Asian markets and BRICS currencies have already shown signs of weakness, while US futures have weakened on the threat.
Oil markets have also reacted sharply to OPEC+’s announcement of a higher-than-expected production increase of around 550,000 barrels per day from August, which has pushed Brent below $68 and US crude below $66.
On the European inflation front, the ECB is opting to postpone further rate cuts. Estonian Minister Madis Müller confirmed that the ECB can afford to put monetary easing on hold, given stable inflation and solid growth.
reuters.com
Forex Impact – What Traders Should Watch
The combination of strong eurozone sentiment and looming trade tensions is driving significant currency dynamics this week:
EUR/USD: The euro has room to strengthen further. Optimistic sentiment and a pause from the ECB reinforce the bullish bias, but tariff uncertainty could trigger safe-haven demand for USD.
USD/JPY and CHF: The dollar could find support amid global risk aversion, pushing JPY and CHF higher.
Commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NOK): Under double pressure: higher oil supply and rising trade risks could weigh on crude-related currencies.
Emerging market currencies: BRICS currencies could remain under pressure due to threats of additional US tariffs; Indian rupee and other currencies could depreciate further.
What's affecting JPY price?The price of the Japanese Yen (JPY) can be influenced by a variety of factors, including:
1. Macroeconomic factors: The value of the JPY can be affected by macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and unemployment. For example, if Japan's GDP grows at a faster rate than expected, this can cause the value of the JPY to increase.
2. Global market sentiment: The JPY is often seen as a safe-haven currency, meaning that investors tend to buy it during times of global economic or political uncertainty. When investors feel nervous about the global economy or the stability of other currencies, they may flock to the JPY, causing its value to rise.
3. Geopolitical events: The JPY can be affected by geopolitical events such as elections, wars, and diplomatic tensions. For example, if tensions between Japan and another country escalate, this could cause investors to sell off the JPY, leading to a decrease in its value.
4. Monetary policy: The Bank of Japan has the ability to influence the value of the JPY through its monetary policy decisions. For example, if the bank lowers interest rates, this can make the JPY less attractive to investors, causing its value to decrease.
5. Trade relationships: Japan's trade relationships with other countries can also affect the value of the JPY. If Japan's exports increase, this can cause an increase in demand for the JPY, leading to an increase in its value.
Overall, the value of the JPY can be affected by a wide range of factors, and it is important to carefully monitor global economic and political developments to gain insight into its potential movements.
What's affecting the gold price?Gold is considered a safe-haven asset and is often sought after by investors during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility.
The price of gold can be influenced by a number of factors, including:
1. Global economic conditions: Economic conditions such as inflation, interest rates, and stock market performance can all affect the price of gold. In general, when economic conditions are uncertain or unstable, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset, driving up its price.
2. Demand and supply: The supply and demand of gold can have a significant impact on its price. While gold mining production can increase the supply of gold, demand from jewelry, technology, and investment can also fluctuate and impact the price.
3. Geopolitical events: Political instability or uncertainty, such as conflict or trade disputes, can increase demand for gold as a safe haven asset, leading to price increases.
4. Currency fluctuations: Since gold is priced in US dollars, fluctuations in currency values can also impact its price. When the US dollar weakens, gold becomes relatively cheaper for investors using other currencies, which can increase demand and drive up the price.
5. Interest rates: The price of gold tends to have an inverse relationship with interest rates. When interest rates are low, the opportunity cost of holding gold is lower, which can increase demand and drive up the price.
It's important to note that the price of gold can be volatile and can fluctuate based on a variety of factors. Investors interested in gold should do their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.