Market Sentiment and Trend Prediction System. Predictive Model. The codes listed below (free&easy;), detailed steps to follow for developing the event prediction system:
1. **Collecting Data**: we will need to gather data from various sources. We can use Python-based web scraping libraries like Beautiful Soup and Scrapy to extract data from news websites and social media platforms (scraping exports data from websites, it is safe and legal, but better contact website admins and ask for authorization)
2. **Cleaning and Preprocessing Data**: After collecting the data, we need to clean and preprocess it. We can use Python libraries like Pandas and NumPy to remove duplicates, missing values, and irrelevant information.
3. **Natural Language Processing**: Once the data is cleaned, we can use natural language processing (NLP) techniques to extract insights from the text data. For example, we can use the NLTK library to perform tokenization, stemming, and lemmatization on the text data.
4. **Model Building**: We can use machine learning algorithms like Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Trees, or Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to build predictive models. These models can help us predict the occurrence of an event or the sentiment associated with a specific topic.
5. **Dashboard and Visualization**: Finally, we can create an intuitive dashboard using tools like Tableau or Power BI to display the analyzed data in real-time. We can use interactive visualizations like bar graphs, pie charts, and heat maps to provide users with a clear understanding of the events and their impacts.
6. **Testing and Deployment**: Once the system is developed, we need to test it thoroughly to ensure that it is delivering the expected results. We can use various testing frameworks like pytest, unittest, or nosetests to automate the testing process. Once testing is completed, we can deploy the system to the production environment.
7. **Regular Maintenance and Updates**: We also need to ensure that the system is continuously monitored.
The codes :
Termux (the app is in playstore, github etc, to excute python files, or commands,for every step, some general commands and libraries that you might find useful:
1. Collecting Data:
- To install Scrapy, run `pip install scrapy`.
- To install Beautiful Soup, run `pip install beautifulsoup4`.
- To scrape data from a webpage using Scrapy, run `scrapy crawl `.
- To scrape data from a webpage using Beautiful Soup, use Python's built-in `urllib` or `requests` module to fetch the webpage's HTML. Then, use Beautiful Soup to parse the HTML and extract the relevant data.
2. Cleaning and Preprocessing Data:
- To install Pandas, run `pip install pandas`.
- To install NumPy, run `pip install numpy`.
- To remove duplicates, use Pandas' `drop_duplicates()` function.
- To remove missing values, use Pandas' `dropna()` function.
- To filter out irrelevant data, use Pandas' indexing functions like `loc` and `iloc`.
3. Natural Language Processing:
- To install NLTK, run `pip install nltk`.
- To perform tokenization, run `nltk.tokenize.word_tokenize(text)`.
- To perform stemming, run `nltk.stem.PorterStemmer().stem(word)`.
- To perform lemmatization, run `nltk.stem.WordNetLemmatizer().lemmatize(word)`.
4. Model Building:
- To install scikit-learn, run `pip install scikit-learn`.
- To instantiate a Random Forest classifier, run `from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier; clf = RandomForestClassifier()`.
- To fit the model to the data, run `clf.fit(X_train, y_train)`, where `X_train` is the input data and `y_train` is the output labels.
- To use the model to make predictions, run `clf.predict(X_test)`.
5. Dashboard and Visualization:
- To install Tableau, follow the instructions on their website.
- To install Power BI, follow the instructions on their website.
- To create a bar graph in Python, use the `matplotlib` library: `import matplotlib.pyplot as plt; plt.bar(x, y); plt.show()`.
- To create a pie chart in Python, use `plt.pie(values, labels=labels); plt.show()`.
- To create a heat map in Python, use `sns.heatmap(data, cmap='coolwarm'); plt.show()` (assuming you have installed the Seaborn library).
These are general commands and libraries that you can use as a starting point. If you need me to explain how to use termux, let me know.
Prediction
Triangle breakout PredictionWe can predict the direction of the breakout with a cumulative indicator such as the OBV.
Here you see the OBV increase from the first high to the breakout candle, this proves significantly accurate.
so OBV rising can be used as another step for verifying the congruency of your prediction.
How to predict the market moves easily by Forecast indexHello traders!
everyone wants to know where market will go at future, by Forecast index you can easily realize if the price can maintain its trend or not
Forecast index consisted of trend momentum, trend volume and trend strength which identify future trend reverses
Forecast index show you future trend revers by its direction before of every trend reverses , Forecast index change its direction faster than price.. which we call it miracle!
its work properly on every chart and time-frame, it becomes a bless at long term trends...
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The Crystal ball Strategy - How to Look into the future.There seems to be an endless amount of strategies out there, some promise fast returns while others promise consistency. Recently Ive started to gain some followers and have had some requests for strategies. Well today Im going to share one of my crackpot strategies I call "The Crystal Ball Strategy". This is not like most strategies that rely on indicators, in fact it uses no indicators at all. I don't often trade this one but every now and then I will use it to confirm a trade before placing an order. I stumbled upon to this while I living in the 1 second charts trying to script the perfect entry bot. I started to notice the loops would start on the 1 second chart then make there way to the 30 second, then the 1 min. The next day I would see the pattern on the 1 hour chart. Its like looking into a crystal ball and seeing the future.
How it works.
Its as simple as opening a split screen with a 1 min char and a 60 min chart. On the 1 min chart find the beginning of the current trend that you are looking at on the 1 hour chart. For the example I am using Bitcoin. Now its just a matter of comparing the two charts. If they are the same (which they normally are) you can setup your trade knowing if it is going to be a long or short and even how good it will be and where to exit. All the data for the 1 hour trend is stored in the first wave. Just a word of warning that things happen along the way like dumps that will change the future but if things coast along fine the 1 hour chart will usually match up with what you saw on the 1 min chart yesterday.
Here you can see the 2 charts lined up. The 1 min chart is marked in a yellow box on the 1 hour chart. I have broken up the different parts for comparison. In this example the charts suggest to place a short.
This is scrolled back left, you can see the 2 charts match characteristics.
Im sharing this for educational purposes only and have not backtested it enough. I just figure some people may be interested and strongly urge you to not run out and put on a "YOLO".
MaMA : Momentum adjusted Moving AverageA brand new Moving Average , calculated using Momentum, Acceleration and Probability (Psychological Effect).
Momentum adjusted Moving Average( MaMA ) is an indicator that measures Price Action by taking into consideration not only Price movements but also its Momentum, Acceleration and Probability. MaMA , provides faster responses comparing to the regular Moving Average
Here is the math of the MaMA idea
Momentum measures change in price over a specified time period
momentum = source – source(length)
where,
source, indicates current bar’s price value
source(length), indicates historical price value of length bars earlier
Lets play with this formula and rewrite it by moving source(length) to other side of the equation
source = source(length) + momentum
to avoid confusion let’s call the source that we aim to predict as adjustedSource
adjustedSource = source(length) + momentum
looks nice the next value of source simply can be calculated by summing of historical value of the source value and value of the momentum. I wish it was so easy, the formula holds true only when the momentum is conserved/constant/steady but momentum move up or down with the price fluctuations (accelerating or decelerating)
Let’s add acceleration effects on our formula, where acceleration is change in momentum for a given length. Then the formula will become as (skipped proof part of acceleration effects, you may google for further details)
adjustedSource = source(length) + momentum + 1/2 * acceleration
here again the formula holds true when the acceleration is constant and once again it is not the case for trading, acceleration also changes with the price fluctuations
Then, how we can benefit from all of this, it has value yet requires additional approaches for better outcome
Let’s simulate behaviour with some predictive approach such as using probability (also known as psychological effect), where probability is a measure for calculating the chances or the possibilities of the occurrence of a random event. As stated earlier above momentum and acceleration are changing with the price fluctuations, by using the probability approach we can add a predictive skill to determine the likelihood of momentum and acceleration changes (remember it is a predictive approach). With this approach, our equations can be expresses as follows
adjustedSource = source(length) + momentum * probability
adjustedSource = source(length) + ( momentum + 1/2 * acceleration ) * probability , with acceleration effect
Finally, we plot MaMA with the new predicted source adjustedSource, applying acceleration effect is made settable by the used from the dialog box, default value is true.
What to look for:
• Trend Identification
• Support and Resistance
• Price Crossovers
Recommended settings are applied as default settings, if you wish to change the length of the MaMA then you should also adjust length of Momentum (and/or Probability). For example for faster moving average such as 21 period it would be suggested to set momentum length to 13
Alternative usage, set moving average length to 1 and keep rest lengths with default values, it will produce a predictive price line based on momentum and probability. Experience acceleration factor by enabling and disabling it
Conclusion
MaMA provide an added level of confidence to a trading strategy and yet it is important to always be aware that it implements a predictive approach in a chaotic market use with caution just like with any indicator
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
Disclaimer : The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitutes professional and/or financial advice. You alone the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
7 Steps to Drawing Professional Trendlines+ Predicting DirectionHow To Correctly Draw Trend-Lines To Assess Breakouts
Trend-lines are the most fundamental skills of anyone performing the technical analysis of charts.
As a certified market analyst, you are taught how to draw trendlines properly, this is the quick guide to doing it right.
There are 3 time-frames for trends according to Charles Dow the father of technical analysis and the Dow Jones Industrial average.
3 Trend Timeframes
• Short-term: Days to Weeks
• Medium-term: Weeks to Months
• Long-term: Months to Years
3 Types of Trend
• Uptrend
• Down Trend
• Sideways Consolidation
The secret of trend-lines is combining these 6 factors to assess market direction.
Looking at the NVIDIA chart I have plotted key trendlines and the expected direction once price breaks through or bounces off a trendline.
4 Trends on the NVIDIA Chart
1. The long-term trend – Uptrend
By connecting the lowest lows (closing price) on a price chart we can easily see that NVIDIA is in a long-term uptrend. As this trend spans from 2016 through 2020 (months to years) it is a long-term trend.
2. The medium-term trend – Sideways
Connecting the highest highs for NVIDIA from 2019 to 2020 (weeks to months) we can see that NVIDIA is in a sideways consolidation pattern. Here you can see that trend-line (2.) is also called the resistance line. The price bounced twice off the resistance line but did not break through, meaning resistance. Also, in terms of the chart pattern, it is a “double top”.
3. The Short-term Trend – Downtrend
Looking at the days to weeks timeframe and connecting the highest highs of the closing prices we can clearly see that NVIDIA is in a downtrend.
4. Long-term lateral support line
Here we can draw a horizontal line connecting previous highs and lows to see there a possible future target price may be.
Using Trend-lines to Establish Possible Price Direction
Now that we have drawn the trend-lines we can see that if price breaks through or bounces off a trendline what the next market move will be. Predictions are colored in Red.
5. Price Breaks Through Long-term Trend Line
If the stock price breaks down through the long-term price trend (1.) then we expect it to move down to trend-line (4.) at $120
6. Price Breaks Up through Short-term Down Trend
If price breaks up through trend line (3.) Then we expect resistance at the Medium-term trend line (2.) At this point, it will either move back down to continue up.
7. Price Breaks through Medium-term Trend 2.
Finally, if the price moves up through medium trend (2.), this is a new all-time high and a bull run.
Summary
I hope this guide shows you how to draw trend lines properly to give professional reliable results and market entry timings.
Thanks
Barry – LiberatedStockTrader.com
ETHUSD : 2 PATHS FOR 1 FUTUREIs the future of ETHUSD and other cryptocurrencies is bright or not?
I decided to make that chart analysis to clarify the situation and draw an approximation of the different paths we would follow for the end of May and during June. In that chart you could find all resistances, support and pivot zone that I calculated according to two assumptions:
1) We follow the green path in which we are now, forming a cup&handle.
Higher point May = 835
Close point May = 800
Lower point May = 627
2) We follow the red path that brings the market to retest the pivot of 2018.
Higher point May = 835
Close point May = 580
Lower point May = 627
Calculation formulas:
Pivot = (H + B + C) / 3
S1 = (2 x Pivot) - H
S2 = Pivot - (H - B)
R1 = (2 x Pivot) - B
R2 = Pivot + (H - B)
We still are in a bullish market as we can see on the RSI. If we break the 40, we would enter in a bear market and follow the red path to retest our annual pivot at $536. That solution is possible as we have a great bearish divergence.
However, all cases are possible, we could see a new rally from our $657 support 1 of this week. The weekly pivot around $700 could be retested soon. On the other chart analysis that I've done, we can see that we have a symmetrical triangle with an ABCDE correction that followed the previous impulse wave.
At that time, we didn't really break the triangle, we should wait the end of the day !
I wanted to make that educational chart to practise some tools and share with you my point of view about the future of the market. If you don't use Pivot Standard Points tool, you should do because it's one of the mostly used tool by traders. And that could change your Moon or hell mindset in a more analytic one.
Thanks for reading, if you think it's an interesting analysis, push the agree button! Comment whatever you want to share something about that topic and follow me if you want to see more about my analyses.
Have a nice week!