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Hacking the 2023 Market Recovery with a Symmetrical Triangle Here's an easy chart analysis "hack" to help pick price levels to trade during the (hopefully expected) 2023 market recovery ... .... and ... it's just this, it's a hack - not a prediction and definitely not a trading advice :) In this hack, we make a couple of (bold) assumptions -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 - that the market has already reached bottom and (just) started moving back up 2 - that this expected move up (for recovery) may take as long as (if not more than) the time it took the market to drop 3 - that - from a zoomed-out view - the drop and the recovery will roughly make up a wide V shape goes without saying, these are big assumptions, and also there are many unknowns that can happen anytime to change or affect these assumptions - in both good or negative ways. that's why i'm referring to this as a "very rough hack" :) -- still thought it was useful to share.. So with these assumptions, we can then use a simple Moving Average (I use the 20SMA here on a weekly chart) and couple of TV drawing tools; 2 rectangles and a diagonal line (or a triangle), to plot a very rough "path to recovery" - as explained in the above chart - the right arm of that inverted symmetrical triangle is the important element we need here - it will represent the "projected recovery path" - of the moving average we selected. for chartists, this is a "golden nugget" ... How is this "hack" useful ? --------------------------------------- - we now have a starting point when designing trades - entries and targets - knowing (at least with some little confidence) that the price will mostly remain above the "projected path" between now and the end of recovery - "mostly" here is a key word :) -- because for the SMA to take that path, the price should print these values (more than values below the SMA) - having that insights can provide a useful edge for technical traders to exploit - beside all the usual analysis, indicators, tools....etc that they use .. Did this work in prior market drops ? ---------------------------------------------- - this hack won't work with the 2020 COVID drop - that drop was so sudden with even a sharper recovery - this method needs more of "smoother drop moves" to become meaningful. - I tested this with the 2008 market drop - which was big and steep - with slow recovery - so somehow similar to the one we're going through now (from a very rough perspective) this is how that test looked like How to use this chart analysis hack ? ------------------------------------------------------- - Use it any way you want - and at your own risk - or do not use it at all - it may or may not work. No one can predict future prices in the market (no matter what some people may claim) - But assuming this can provide some rough guide to the recovery of some of the big names that move consistently with the market (like AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, ..etc) - i plan to use the levels provided by this guide to pick best option strikes and expiry to play some long CALLs if this path holds. - for example, if we want to play the 115 long CALL on GOOG, we should consider taking expiry not earlier than early October (or later than that) - as in the below chart Again, please keep in mind that this is a hack - it's not a method of price prediction and not even a sanctioned method of chart analysis :) I'll be super glad if that idea helped inspire some winning trades - let me know in the comments.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by RedKTrader
The Clarity of Renko'sThis is not a chart reading - and i'll keep it super short ... this is just a quick reminder that we have many powerful tools that we can use to enhance our analysis and trading outcomes.. too many that we sometimes forget to use them. The above chart shows a great example of that .. I was going thru the daily analysis and thought i should share this note with fellow TV chartists and traders. The 2 panels show 2 identical charts, same time frame, same date range, same symbol and same indicators .. the only difference, the chart on the right hand side is a Renko It's surprising to see how clearer the picture is when we analyze the chart and the price/volume action through the Renko lens. Taking for example, the 3 double/triple top formations and how they were expressed on both charts .. which chart is easier to action and trade? so the quick note here is, let's not forget about these powerful tools - and continue to leverage them as much as possible - Before initiating the next trade, check your Renko :) Note: most of my indicators and TA concepts are "Renko-friendly" ;) Notes & comments ?
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NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by RedKTrader
8
How to Tweak & Sync Indicator Settings? (and Why should I care?)This post is dedicated to exploring and reviewing key concepts specific to configuring technical indicators - these concepts may be obvious to those who have been doing charting and technical analysis for a long time, but hopefully useful to some who are new to charting and the world of technical indicators. Also once we are familiar with these concepts, we are able to leverage them with almost any chart setup, any indicator, any trading style, any timeframe - or choose not to use them at all - or to partially use them - we will have the necessary background to make an intentional decision to develop our own configurations. in this exercise, we will attempt to answer few -but very common- questions: 1. what are the best settings i should use for my indicator(s) ? 2. what are "correlated indicators" ? 3. Why should i use indicators on the chart - The price action has all the information i need. First a quick, fun exercise............. What's wrong with the above chart ? Nothing, right? we're looking at a daily chart of the Q's - we're using 3 of the most famous (built-in) indicators: The Moving Average Ribbon - on the price panel- and the MACD and the RSI - on lower panels- all 3 indicators are used with default settings (you may say "no one does that?" - we will for now - just for the sake of the exercise, and to explain couple of concepts, so hold that thought). (for this exercise, assume i am a QQQ trader who traders the daily timeframe. I open and hold positions for few days to few weeks) Now, let's use the chart above to identify long or short trades based first on the MA cross-over (looking at the 2 faster MA's in the ribbon) and check for confirmation from the MACD and the RSI in the lower panels. Should be easy, right ? we'll start by marking the MA cross-overs with a vertical line that cuts thru the MACD and RSI and see what we get. here's the chart showing this part of our exercise we have found 4 possible trade setups, based on the (2 fast) MA cross-overs on the price panel - but when looking for confirmation from MACD and the RSI, we ended up with 3 with confusing signals and 1 that's a "Maybe Long" (... if you find yourself in this situation -regardless of what is being traded, what indicators you use or the timeframe, then hopefully this post may help) Question 1: So how to tweak and sync my indicator settings to get good, reliable trading signals across multiple indicators? there are 3 steps to answer that question and get our "no confusion" chart setup completed. Step 1: identify your trader's preferred timeframe and trader's time horizon let's quickly review these 2 core concepts a. The Traders Preferred Timeframe each trader has one (or more) preferred timeframe that works best for what and how they trade (full-time vs part-time, stocks, futures, forex, options, crypto..etc etc), their trading style, their risk appetite and tolerance, their capital, and some other variables. the first thing i need to determine is what is my preferred timeframe. for example, for me, it is the daily (1D) - i have tried the hourly, the 10min, and also the weekly...etc before, and i found i am much more comfortable with the 1D timeframe. it suits my trading style and goals - i have enough time to adjust trades, don't need to watch charts all the time...and many other reasons. so 1st requirement: identify preferred trader timeframe: daily (check!) (what is your preferred trader timeframe?) b. the trader's "time horizon" with the preferred timeframe identified, the next step is to define what is my short, medium, and long time horizon i need to be watching and analyzing to make trading decisions (others may call this something else, let's call it the time horizon) for example, as a day traders, who trades only stocks and basic options, i need to look at the price action for the current week, 2 weeks and 4 weeks (almost a month) - that doesn't mean i won't look at charts that show price action for a whole year, or an hourly - but for making a trade decision, the price action for this week and this month are what i need to check the most there, we just solved 2nd requirement - my time horizon let's express this in terms of my timeframe: 1 week = 5 daily bars, 2 weeks = 10 daily bars, and 4 weeks = 20 daily bars (check!) (what are your short, medium and long time horizons as expressed in units of your preferred trader timeframe?) from the above exercise, i identified that i need my indicators to be set to 5, 10 and 20 on a daily chart. this is going to be the most comfortable and relevant settings *for me* to support my trading decision according to *the way I trade* Step 2: Ok, so now let's tweak and sync our indicators in the above chart and see if that improves my ability to find possible trades we'll set the MA ribbon to 5, 10, 20, 50 - we set the MACD to 5 and 10 (don't worry about the MACD smoothing/signal - let's make it 4) - and we set the RSI length to 10 make sure we're using the "close" price as the source across all indicators make sure we're using EMA (vs SMA) as the moving average type across all indicators whenever possible. Here's the *same chart* with my indicator settings tweaked and Sync'ed Step 3: let's make some simple but *really useful* visual enhancements to help us see the chart overall in a "visually clearer" way (this is very useful to the more "visual folks out there) -- here's what we did - we hide the unused (slower MA's) on the price chart (for now) - we added an EMA smoothing line on top of the RSI - and made it easier to see (color, width) - hide the underlying RSI itself - you know how to do that trick, right? - we also tweaked the main MACD line (color, width) to make it stand out - other elements are tweaked to "fade" Now let's see if it's now easier to find those trades - Here's the same chart with Sync'ed Indicators AND our "visual tweaks" - and voila! we can see 5 trades with signals from all the indicators agreeing and confirming. All signals are in sync - no "maybe's" and a lot less confusion - and the best things is, all indicators are tweaked to my preferred timeframe and my trader's time horizons. you can apply the same approach we used here to any other indicators you use. we just used this set as an example and to explain this concept. Question 2: What are correlated indicators ? ----------------------------------------------------------------- to answer that question, look at the last chart we arrived at above - Do you see something surprising in that chart? if you inspect the MACD and the RSI plots, you will find they are - visually and broadly - similar , right? they both cross the base line (0 for MACD and 50 for RSI) almost at the same places - and they have overall similar "plot shape" - why is that? this is because the MACD and RSI when sync'ed and tweaked, are correlated indicators - although the calculation formula is different for each, and one of them (RSI) is a restricted oscillator (+100 / -100) while the other (MACD) is not - they both express price momentum - and when tweaked and sync'ed the way we did above, they will (almost) give the same signals. in fact, in our example, all our 3 indicators (the MA pair on the price panel, the MACD and the RSI) are correlated - they're all ,basically, "saying the same" thing - the signals are triggered at exactly the same time - they are redundant in this setup. what does that mean for me as a trader ? it means i'm not receiving any "valuable, additional" insights by having 2 (or more) indicators that represent the same price attribute (in this case momentum) - unless, -- i intentionally want that - and will change settings for one of those indicators to reflect a different "time horizon". for example, i can set the MA pair on top to lengths 20 and 50 - and use the MACD to get signal on the short term (5 and 10) action while the pair on the price chart act as a long-term filter (only take long trades when the MAs agree). or -- i start looking at utilizing other technical indicators that provide completely different insights - and inform me about other "hidden market action attributes" & variables beyond the ones i already have (volume is an excellent indicator by itself, also can check for indicators of sentiment, strength of move, squeeze...etc) - this is where more technical analysis research will guide the trader - also it's useful to learn from others and what they are using in their trading setups, and asking "why" questions. there's so much to say in this part - but i will leave it there.. just a teaser and hope i was able to make some of you curious to research this further - review your trading setups and see if your settings are out of sync, there is redundancies, and how you can get a better picture of price action thru your chart setup. Question 3: if price action has everything i need, why do i need technical indicators in the first place? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - this is a big debate .. for me, the answer is simple - can you drive your can without the dashboard that informs you when you're about to run out of fuel, or that you're exceeding the legal speed limit - or less obvious things, like your engine temperature - or when the engine oil is below the (red) limit. if i do that once, and i still get safely to my destination, it's definitely not a sure sign that this is what i should always do, or how everyone should be driving their cars. but then again, it doesn't have to get too sophisticated - if, for my preferred time frame and my time horizon, i can see insights that makes it easier for me to quickly understand the price action (like the dashboard in my car), if i can see the trend, strength / momentum, volume supply / demand, and the prevailing sentiment - i guess that would be good enough. Also, there's that other big topic - that indicators are meant to indicate. again, the dashboard in your car is meant to show these things like fuel, speed, engine temperature and oil level, RPM..etc - but the dashboard will not tell you where to go with the car .. you already have a plan, and that's why you're driving your can in the first place. so indicators do not trade for us -- and all this exercise above, is in the service of (and a function of) the trading plans and goals that you already have in mind, before looking at any indicators. in closing, sorry for the long post :) - hope this post helps inspire some fellow traders to further improve the way they trade. please trade safely.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by RedKTrader
19
Tutorial: How SMAC can help find the Ideal Covered Call StrikeQ3 Earning season is approaching fast Background: The earnings covered call volatility play ------------------------------------------------------------------ one of the easy earning plays if you hold a portfolio of stocks (or if you're a fan of the wheeling strategy) is to sell Covered Call (CC) right before the earnings announcement - when the volatility is inflated and the premium price peaks - usually using weekly options - which then you can close immediately after the earnings have been announced, or just leave them to expire worthless if they end up out of the money (OTM). When this play is done right, and depending on your position size, it can deliver few hundred (if not thousand) bucks literally overnight. When we design this play, we need to consider also the scenario that with the earnings announcement, the stock price may shoot over our selected strike, and we may end up getting assigned - and the stock is called away from us. However, with the proper "design" of this trade play, you can set it up for a "no-lose" trade scenario - if you don't get assigned, you keep all the call premium (not bad for a 2-day trade) - see example below - you still keep the stock. - if you get assigned, you will earn the difference between the strike price and your breakeven *plus* the covered call premium -- so a winning trade in both scenarios. if we can repeat this play for few stocks during earnings, the gain can accumulate and bring in a very "good month" for the trader who can master this play. Using the SMAC to make this scenario easier ----------------------------------------------------- One of the reasons i wrote the "Auto-stepping, Zero-lag Moving Average Channel - SMAC" script is to help me with trade scenarios like this. Let me share how. - Assume i hold 1,000 AAPL shares in my portfolio. - i just bought them couple of weeks ago - and i am planning to play the volatility and sell Covered Call into the upcoming earnings using the weekly options. - my goal is either to collect the call premium and keep holding AAPL past the earnings - or to get assigned and sell the stock and realize a profit larger than what i would have got if i just bought then sold the stock direct - my preferred strike "distance" is 5% Out of the Money (OTM) - which can give a reasonable value of premium while giving me room to still keep the stock if the price doesn't shoot that high due to the earnings. - I plot my breakeven price on the chart - say for the example here, it's $143 - Add the SMAC to the chart and set the SMAC Percent Envelop to 5% - This will immediately show what price range i should pick the Covered Call strike if i want a 5% OTM -- it's the $151 or the $152. Maybe i would pick the $152, cause if i get assigned, it would give me a larger gain on the underlying position. Calculating the P&L for both CC scenarios is also easy now on the chart --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Not Assigned: after the earnings, the stock still closes below our strike - we can even leave the call to expire worthless - no commission paid - i keep the premium assume the CC premium is $1.3 by the time i sell the CC & assume i have 1,000 AAPL shares, that's $1,300 over-night! = 1% return and i still keep the stock - We get assigned with the same assumptions above, we keep $152 - $143 = $9 + the premium ( = $10 bucks per share -- that's $10,000 in 2 weeks. around 7% return) - we can buy AAPL again later on a dip. *** Big Note here --------------------- Another scenario is, if my breakeven for AAPL is above the 5% strike price level, in which case, i would not consider this trade at all - because if i sell the CC and i get assigned, i would basically close my position at a loss - again, once i set the SMAC and my BE of the chart, i can easily see if that's the case and make a fast trade decision - here's how this would look on the chart if you hold 1 or 2 positions in your portfolio - this whole SMAC / Chart thing may not be worth it - maybe a quick mental calculation or simple spreadsheet is easier :) - but if you hold 15-20 positions in your portfolio / multiple accounts, doing this fast during the earnings days and visually on a chart can save a good amount of time and give more confidence. i hope this can inspire some fellow traders to share how else they can use the Auto-stepping zero-lag Moving Average Channel Please do not treat this post as a trade recommendation - or as trading education - i'm just sharing thoughts and some of my limited experience - Please trade safely.
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NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by RedKTrader
18
Quick tip: Add a signal line to your indicator, no coding!Want to make your RSI smoother and easier to track and follow its signals? You can add a moving average signal line to it. Let me share how to do this quickly without coding. This is a very neat and easy trick you can do - thanks to TradingView :) - using the feature "Indicator-on-indicator" Quick Steps: add RSI to your chart if its not already there, hover on the RSI indicator label, click the "..." ellipsis, choose the option to "Add Indicator/Strategy on RSI" - it will be the second command from the top on the shortcut menu, and choose your favorite moving average from the indicator library - adjust the MA settings to your preference - and you're done! No coding needed. maybe, like me, you are experimenting with my recently-published RSS_WMA - aka the Lazy Line 😎 - will add a link below - you can add it to your RSI like i did in the example chart above. The RSI with the new signal line looks a lot easier to use and trade on, right? The MA Line not only makes RSI more visually appealing, but also makes it easy to follow the RSI movements into OB/OS zones, or crossing the middle line. for "visual folks" like me, this is an improvement that makes a big difference in my trading. * You can use this same trick with any other indicator / combo of indicators - that would make sense to combine with this approach - in your charts. Get creative. * Indicator-on-Indicator is an awesome feature - just wanted to share a quick reminder of this trick, as i also forget about it most of the time. * for more details, there's a comprehensive guide to this feature in TradingView's Help Center www.tradingview.com trade safely and good luck!
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NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by RedKTrader
15
Thoughts: Strength of Move (SoM) vs Trader Pressure Index (TPX)Recently I posted updates to both my Strength of Move (SoM) and the Trader Pressure Index (TPX) indicators as promised, i'm sharing this post to share how i use both of these indicators together as i trade, and how they act differently but complement each other. Please note that these are only my own (humble) thoughts, based on how i thought about and designed these indicators, and what i expect them to show me. these thoughts are not professional recommendations and they may not work for other style of trading - they may even not make sense to someone who trades differently or if i flexibly use (or misuse) some of the classic technical analysis terms - apologies upfront for all that. also apologies if it's a long(ish) read, Let's start with some background... How is TPX different from SoM? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TPX is designed to represent the battle between buyers and sellers - or bulls and bears - by inspecting the highs and lows of consecutive price bars - in simple terms, if the highs and lows of bars are moving up, that's considered "bull pressure" - and if the highs and lows of bars are moving down, then that's considered "bear pressure" - a simple averaging calculation captures these values, and calculates also the Net Pressure - we plot these 3 values on an oscillator - and that can help show us who (bulls or bears) is in control of an ongoing price moves. So TPX shows Bull / Bear Pressure .. how is this different from "Strength of Move" ? isn't "strength" and "pressure" kind of "similar"? SoM is designed to track the average change of price within a short period of time (2 to 5 periods) - and then looks into how that average change compares to a "longer average of move" -- for an analogy, think of this as if we're driving a car on a road - we're taking readings of the "distance covered" per time unit as we go - say our time unit is an hour. now, for the last 3 hours, we covered an average distance of 5 miles per hour -- but we used to be able to cover 15 miles per hour before -- this would be an indication that "we are losing speed" - we're travelling "less confidently" than we used to before -- but if before we were able to cover only 1 mile per hour, then 5 miles per hour is a great number, right? and in fact would show that we're accelerating. SoM depends on the fact that price action is "relative" to previous / recent price action - if you're watching AAPL for the last 2 weeks, and it was in an up-trend, making jumps of 1.5% ~ 2% per day - then all of a sudden AAPL starts slowing down to 0.3% and 0.1% per day - or even registering down days - we know that the honeymoon (up-move) is over and that the trend may come to an end, or even reverse, soon. long story, but that's how SoM was designed -- SoM reflects the "bias" or "confidence" of the average price move -- note: bias is short-term-focused and is different from Sentiment (which is long-term) -- this is how i utilize these terms here. -- another note: a -100% in SoM doesn't necessarily mean a price move to the downside - since SoM is relative to recent average price moves, it may just mean that "we're registering very weak moves that are the weakest we have seen in x (the length value) period" -- this can get a bit confusing. if it does, please keep it aside for now. Now with this part clear - let's look at the examples here. We have SoM and TPX overlaid in the same panel (they're both +100/-100 oscillators and it saves space - colors become a bit of a challenge though :)) - there's a moving average on the price chart and a MACD in the lower panel - this is actually one of the setups i use for my trading. here's the key benefits i designed the SoM to achieve: ================================================ 1 - early detection of weakness & strength: in the AAPL chart example, we can see how SoM can be early to detect the end of a trend (the car in the above analogy is losing speed) - and shows a bias towards weakness, before both the trendline and the MACD. what i also like about SoM is that (because of the use of the stoch function) its behavior is "unambiguous" - so we can't mistake that it is going down when it does. This is an important parameter IMHO for a good indicator. in the example below, a similar scenario shows couple of times on a smaller/faster timeframe - example (1) shows price moving in a range with a slight "bear pressure", but SoM detects a bias to the upside - and in example (2), SoM detects the end of the trend before any of the other indicators - this is not an issue with TPX or MACD, it's just that SoM is designed to be more sensitive as we explained above. 2 - Shows good entry / exit opportunities Another benefit of SoM is that it can show good re-entry or exit opportunities, when the trend and pressure are up and we established a move up for price, i can use SoM to locate opportunities with the most "price weakness" to enter with a long position, to maximize profit -- same with an established move-down, i can find best "strong" bars to open a short position - i use that approach to time my entry into covered calls against my stocks - I highlighted couple of examples on the chart above. 3 - SoM helps confirm strong trends the recent addition i made in v4, is to show a (blue/magenta circle) signal when the unsmoothed SoM plot (shows as a very faint silver line) hits 100% in either directions - when this happens, it reflects a strong price bias to that direction - our car all of a sudden accelerated to 50 miles per hour - these "relatively big moves" usually mean something is underway - and if the SoM continues to print these signals with confirmation from MACD and TPX, then the probability of a well-established trend is high and i can plan my trades & risks accordingly - best way to learn how these indicators work together, is to add them to a chart of something you already trade and are familiar with how it behaves, set the chart to a small timeframe, say 3 mins, and watch it for a while - try to interpret what the signals mean and expect the next move - we will not be 100% accurate and don't let that frustrate you - but once your success rate is reasonable (70% or so) , you'll feel more comfortable using them in real trading - especially now that you're familiar with the "inner works" in closing, i hope this wasn't too much, and provided what i promised - to share more about the use and the "internal" workings of these 2 indicators - and how I use them in my trading with some examples .. I will be more than happy if this post helps inspire some ideas for fellow traders, and make them a bit more successful in their trading. happy to receive comments or feedback - or thoughts from fellow traders who already played around with these indicators and would like to share their experiences. "constructive criticism" also welcome, we're all here to learn 😄 good luck and trade safe.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by RedKTrader
8
Tutorial: How I Track a stock portfolio on TradingViewFor those of us who like to leverage the awesome charting capabilities of TradingView to visualize, analyze and track a portfolio of holdings, i wanted to share couple of ways i have been using in the past few months. I found that the ability to "chart" a portfolio adds a whole new dimension to my decision making - that looking at the portfolio in numbers on daily basis does not allow. for example, when I'm able to "chart" the portfolio, i can apply simple technical analysis tools (Moving Averages, MACD..etc) to find new "portfolio opportunities" - like for example, when the portfolio is at a top with a possible upcoming decline in value, that would be a good time to start cashing out and locking some of my unrealized profits, or to hedge by buying some Puts or selling some Covered Calls.. as in the example in the chart above. so here the ways i use to track my portfolio using TradingView. Method 1: Using a Pine script - few weeks ago i published a simple Portfolio Tracker script with details on how it can be used to set up and track a simple portfolio of 10 holdings + a cash position. please refer to the link below if you're interested in that method. Method 2: Using TradingView's Watchlist - i'd like to focus on this method in this post. there are few variations to how this can be accomplished, and i hope i can share a trick or 2 that i have been using that made this a lot easier for me 1 - the simplest way: add the "portfolio string" manually as a watchlist symbol assume i have a simple portfolio of 100 MSFT + 200 AAPL + 300 INTC along with some $10,000 cash in the account i chose to add a new symbol to my watchlist, and enter the line below - this is what i refer to as the "portfolio string": MSFT * 100 + AAPL * 200 + INTC * 300 + 10,000 and this is what you see in the chart here.. this should work well - the only issue with this method is that if my portfolio is more complex than 3-4 positions, and/or if it changes frequently due my active trading, this manual approach is less than ideal 2 - what if my portfolio is more complex than this and it changes often in that case, i would suggest to use a spreadsheet - or maybe you already maintain a sheet where you track your trades. in that sheet, construct a table like the below and enter the formulas that are shown in the "formula view" in that sheet, cell D2 , will consolidate (using the concatenation function) the individual "Position Strings" into a single "Portfolio String" you can then copy cell D2 from the Excel table, then go to TradingView, choose to add a symbol to your watchlist, and simply paste that "Portfolio String" in there.. and voila! -- adjust the number of rows as needed (add rows, and update the formula in cell D2). i tried with more than 10 positions per portfolio and it works smoothly -- note that the "Position_Str" formula is consistent for all holdings *except* for the last line -- if you're using something other than Excel, please map the functions accordingly. the below works on Excel. Formula View = what we enter in the spreadsheet --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A B C D --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Symbol Qty Position_str Portfolio_str 2 sym1 100 = A2 & "*" & B2 & "+" =CONCAT(C2:C5) 3 sym2 200 = A3 & "*" & B3 & "+" 4 sym3 300 = A4 & "*" & B4 & "+" 5 Cash 10,000 = B5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Normal Table (results) View --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A B C D --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Symbol Qty Position_str Portfolio_str 2 sym1 100 MSFT*2000+ MSFT*2000+AAPL*3000+INTC*3000+10000 3 sym2 200 AAPL*3000+ 4 sym3 300 INTC*3000+ 5 Cash 10,000 10,000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 - My last tip here is not a separate approach - but builds on the one above - i already use a separate spreadsheet table (a trade log) to track my trades which i update on regular basis. - using the pivot table feature, i can construct a view of my "trade log" that provides what we see in Columns A and B above. - so this makes it easy to just "refresh" the pivot table once i update my trades, and the "Portfolio String" will be updated automatically for me - theni will just copy and paste it as a new symbol in my TradingView WatchList and remove the older ones. i hope some of you find these tips useful and can leverage some of this to open up that new portfolio management abilities to your trading.. Feedback and comments are welcome as usual - best of luck!
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by RedKTrader
36
A Quick Guide to Multi-Timeframe ScalingQuick Intro =========== Regardless of what type of trader we are, most of us will look at the same chart in different timeframes to help make the "case for a trade". The risk of doing so is that we need to understand the fundamental concept of Multi-Timeframe Scaling (let's call it MTF scaling) as we inspect the various timeframe charts of the same underlying, otherwise, we risk receiving confusing signals - that rather than helping a trade decision, will possibly hinders the decision, if not even triggering the wrong decision. This concept has possibly been published about here before - i though it won't harm to put together a quick primer / reminder if it helps some of our new fellow traders on TradingView - if this sounds interesting, please read on. What do I mean by Multi-Timeframe Scaling? ------------------------------------------------------- in my trading, and as i check if there's a good trade to make on, say TSLA- i would first look at the daily chart -- cause i'm a position trader. is there a trend forming? has there been a recent consolidation? is there a possible breakout soon ? ..etc i then "zoom-out" to a larger timeframe -- say the weekly chart. i need to see the prevailing sentiment and the "context" - this is important because even if it looks like a bottom is forming on the daily, if TSLA on the weekly shows a diminishing momentum, i would avoid making a long trade assume the larger (weekly) timeframe is favorable -- so i will then "zoom-in" to find an ideal entry - using a smaller timeframe chart - the 1hr or 15mins so what did we do here: ===================== Larger timeframe = Context and prevailing sentiment Medium timeframe = Trade Decision Shorter Timeframe = Trade Execution i will do the same for exits as well - i assume most traders have a similar "protocol" before they hit the trigger - but may use different "preferred set of timeframes" based on the type of trading -- day traders may use 15min for trading, with 1min for execution and 1 or 2Hrs for context -- swing traders may use 1hr for trading, with 10 mins for execution and 1 day for context and so on .... the problem for many traders, as they switch between the charts of various timeframes is, they will see conflicting signals .. the indicators/charts many of us use are usually not "sync'ed" - to demonstrate how this looks like, look at the chart on top - to demonstrate what happens when there's lack of indicator scaling across the timeframes, i used a 3-SMA basic system -- but the same concept applies for any indicators you use (RSI, MACD, ADX/DMI, Stochastic)....etc -- the list goes on :) -- so what's wrong here and how can it be fixed? ---------------------------------------------------------- There's nothing "really" wrong, it's just there's an element at play that we may not be aware of here - We need to get very familiar with that concept of "MTF scaling" when we switch between different TF charts - the concept is really simple, and the key is the "scale factor" the 1 day chart has 7 x 1hr bars (for stocks) -- so, for example, if i look at an SMA or EMA of length 9 on the daily chart, i need to look at the
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NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by RedKTrader
67
Quick Tutorial: Using the Strength of Movement (RedK_SoM)i recently published the Strength of Movement indicator - Wanted to take a minute to share an example of the setups i'm trying to explore with that indicator. here's the direct link as i mentioned, for a position trader watching a specific set of stocks, the opportunity to catch and ride a "quality trend" occur few times a year, maybe as few as 2 or 3 times - and when they do, and if timed well, they provide very rewarding and low risk trades - with a choice to use basic options to maximize profit - of course that depends on the trader's capital and risk tolerance. - the example i share here is for AAPL - and shows 4 such opportunities / setups since the beginning of 2019 (27 months) .. * initial chart settings: -------------------------- - to explore these setups, i preferred to look at the weekly chart, and to set the SoM to averaging length = 12 -- all other settings left as default - i also chose to combine a MACD to show momentum and the Ribbon to help visualize the trend - you can use any other indicators that you're more familiar with and trust - we'll consider only long setups since we're overall bullish on AAPL * reading the chart & finding the entries: --------------------------------------------------- - the initial signal for an incoming trend is when the SoM oscillator line crosses the zero line going up - on the chart these are marked with the green arrow up and a blue vertical line - the primary signal that the "trend has been established" is when the "SoM raw" line (light blue) hits the 100% - marked on the chart with a star * - very important: the confirmation of the setup is provided by the MACD (and the Ribbon, i look specifically at the zero-lag line of the Ribbon as it's the fastest to detect reversals). now if we're not familiar with the stock we would consider the first occurrence invalid, since the MACD is in "negative territory" and reflects only a "possible fade of current bearish move" - and not really a reversal sign - however, since this is AAPL and we're overall bullish - for us, this represents the end of the "dip" and can expect the price to continue to move up -- please be very careful here if you're trading stocks that you're not fully familiar with their behavior and expected growth trajectory * exiting the trades: ---------------------------- - the possible duration of each of these trades are marked by the blue arrow on the price chart - but that's hindsight :) - we should close the positions either on a certain target, or as the trend dies down (SoM oscillator crosses zero going down). i would rather close early and lock profit, then ride the next wave up than having to hold thru a wave down and recover - can use a zoomed-in chart (the daily, 2hr) to better time the exit * in conclusion: ------------------- - i have actually traded couple of these runs (without the SoM) and not necessarily opened or closed my positions as perfectly as in the above chart :) but now with the SoM, i hope i'm better prepared for future setup. - i hope this is useful.. please feel free to share feedback or questions. ...... and best of luck :)
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by RedKTrader
11
QCOM trade and the (Fisherman) setupTook a long position today on QCOM , and it worked well. entry point was $75, and the first target is $83.6, with a possibility that i just hold it for a long term (I like QCOM for the 5G motion) i wanted to share this trade cause it's a classic example of a setup that i call "the fisherman" - and while it's very easy to learn and use, it can provide high probability trades. here's how the fisherman works... - first we need to look at a Renko chart - you can see from the dual view here how super easy it is to see the signals on a Renko vs a regular bar or candle chart - Renko is a real secret weapon -- maybe we talk more about that in future posts - on the price chart, i have the MagicWave - ignore the Wave (aqua/orange) line, the other lines are a 10sma (purple) and a 30ema (blue) -- easy to add to the chart individually. the main one we need is the 30ema - on the lower panel there's my own version of the Balance Of Power - but you can use the Dual RSI indicator that i published before. why we need this? cause it shows momentum for 2 periods, a fast and a slow - and that's important for the signal we want to see. use a fast length of 5 (yes we want this to be really fast) and a slow length of at least 6 to 8 times the fast - we don't want the slow length to be "too sensitive". how does the fisherman setup work? what signals do we look for: 1- the price will cross the 30ema going up (the yellow circle), at the same time, both the fast and the slow momentum (RSI) will go positive (as in the yellow box) 2 - the price will retrace back towards the 30ema then will bounce off the 30ema (the green circle), and at the same time, the 30ema will start moving up creating a bottom - the shape in our green circle looks like a "hook" - that's the fisherman's hook :) 3 - super important, while the price is doing "the hook", the fast momentum moves down, maybe even into the negative zone, *but* the slow momentum remains green - the setup fails if the slow momentum also goes negative - we need to have a positive "backdrop" that shows there's a prevailing commitment to the upside 4 - The Entry: you're the fisherman, you have the hook, and now you need to "catch" an entry as low as possible for maximum profit - yes, we will be "bottom fishing" here :). in today's trade, i got lucky and caught the $75. 5 - The Position: once in the trade, we set the target and exit loss .. and back to our regular programming :) i hope some find this useful - practice the fisherman setup and add it to your arsenal of possible setups or even as a way to validate your good trades and entries (the fisherman can also be used in catching a good entry for a short, the hook will be the other way around. see if you can identify the 2 other fisherman setups on QCOM since the beginning of March - zoom our the Renko as needed) good luck!..
NASDAQ:QCOMEducation
by RedKTrader
2
Indicators: My Issues with BoP: Part #2In Part #1, we established how technical indicators - even the ones with high potential to be leading indicators that may enable revealing possible upcoming price movements, using the example of the Balance of Power (BoP), can come short of taking into consideration all factors associated with the price - we listed 7 specific issues that may cause BoP to show inaccuracies and a trader who depends on BoP for trading signals, need to either be aware of them, or adjust the indicator to address these issues. so what's the idea here? why am I posting this? the concepts i address here impact traders today. i see many fellow traders using MACD or RSI or other methods without the complete understanding of what exactly the signals are telling them - while i'm not a guru by any means, i thought i can share an example here of one of the highly potential concepts and a famous indicator, its shortcomings, and how it may be possible to tweak and adjust it to make it more reliable to the way each of us wants to trade. It becomes "your own system" - it interprets the movement the way *you want to visually interpret it* - and produces signals that you understand exactly what they means and you can rely on, to make a trade (entry / exit) decisions, score more winners, less losers -- it's a step into the "DIY" world of technical indicators if you would. In this part, we pick one of the issues from part #1, and see how we can possibly fix it. and see what this "upgraded" BoP would look like. i'll take the issue of "BoP not taking into consideration where the close of the bar is, compared to the full range of the bar" as we know, if the bar closes near the high, this is a usually very bullish sign, and vice versa. the Shooting Star example (right-most bar in the chart) is an up bar, where close is > open - and as such, the classic BoP gives it a positive score. we all know how bearish a shooting star is - it's a scary pattern to the long trader - if BoP is accurate, it should result in some negative value for such a bar. our update #1 adds a simple calculation - on top of the classic (Body / Range) BoP calculation. It also adds another score for where the bar closes compared to the High. if it closes exactly on the high, it gets a positive +100% and if it closes at the low, it gets a negative -100% -- then the scores are added together and averaged to produce a more accurate representation of the bar - that representation is closer to the way you, as a trader, would have in mind when you "visually" inspect the bar. take a look now as you meet BoP II :) -- some of you would say "Aha!" - now the shooting star gets the negative BoP score it deserves :) i further marked few note-worthy bars on the top chart where the score of the upgraded BoP formula, with this simple technique, is considerably (in my view) different than the classic BoP score - check for yourself if the BoP II score makes more sense to you, and is closer to your "visual" assessment of how bearish / bullish a bar looks to you. on the lower BoP indicator, you can see the difference in action, between the old and the new calculation - also marked areas where old BoP would have shown strength where is should show weakness, or the other way around. in conclusion, i suspect some may be wondering -- 'OK, if we fix all issues with BoP - add volume & spread impacts and factor in the "context" of where the bar is within a trend - do we get the "holy grail" indicator of all times? we'll see -maybe in future parts - please let me know if you find this research interesting of if you have comments.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by RedKTrader
Indicators: My Issues with BoPI guess it's the same story with many traders, few years ago, when i first got introduced to the world of technical analysis and indicators, i was fascinated. trading is such an easy thing, just follow the indicator signals, right? then i started to dig deeper only to learn, each indicator shows something specific - and you need to know what is it that you need to see for your trading style, then choose the right indicator and the right values.. etc. my trading setup started changing from there endlessly. then came the other lesson, indicators alone do not make a successful trader - nothing can predict the future, and an indicator only shows specific "signs" at a specific time - what happens next is subject to so many variables, and some of these variables are even sometimes influenced by big players who may not be all playing in the same direction .. however, indicators still help - but in that case, less is more, and a cleaner chart setup with less indicators would then be the right way to go. so take your pick, MACD, RSI, Stoc, ...etc - and throw in couple of moving averages on the top chart, and you're good to go. that's where BoP comes into play. the Balance of Power is a very interesting indicator that has the potential to show "leading signs" - BoP has been around since the '70's and there are various stories about who is the original "father" of BoP - in all cases, the BoP formula is not a secret anymore - BoP simply divides the "body" by the "range" of a bar - so take (close - open) and divide it by the (high - low). since (high - low) is always a positive value, if it's a down bar (closes lower than the open), you will get a negative result - if it's an up bar, positive. now the Bulls get the positive value (and for that bar, the bears get a zero), and bears get the negative value (and again, the bulls get a zero) - so BoP shows who is in control of price movement (bulls vs bears), and if we know that - then we can expect, for example, a trend up to continue or dissipate, right? i will post further analysis on this if there's interest, and dive into each of the "issues" i highlighted here - but i thought to share initially those "issues with BoP" here in this community - and why i think that the Balance of Power comes short of delivering on the premise - and it's time for an upgrade - leveraging the available computing power and scripting languages we now have available at our fingertips. the attached chart shows 6 issues that the BoP indicator doesn't address in its classic calculation - for my own education, i decided i wanted to "see BoP" for each bar - so the "value cards" we see here are the classic BoP values for each bar - then these values are taken and smoothed using a moving average to produce the green line in the lower panel. i modified the calculation slightly to make it oscillate between +/- 100 , then smoothed with a WMA(3) .. on the value card, we can see that modified "BoPx" value for each bar. my thoughts are "if BoP is right and reliable, why would a well-known bearish chart pattern like a shooting star not have a negative value" - right? those who are like me, curious about technical indicators and like to create their own, may find this analysis as interesting as i did. Let's here from you folks. if you have the chance to re-develop or improve "the BoP", how would you approach that to ensure that it really brings the accurate insights that it should ? Let me know your thoughts. feel free to post here or PM. (the code i use here is open and available, but it's really not an indicator - it's more of a research code) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- //@version=4 study("BoP Lower #1") // This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at mozilla.org // © RedKTrader // this is a research study - it plots the value of the Balance of Power on each bar length = input(title="Length", type=input.integer, defval=7, minval=3, step=1) body = close - open range = high - low score = body / range * 100 bulls = if score > 0 score else 0 bears = if score < 0 -score else 0 //create an index scaled from +100 to -100 dx = wma(bulls, length) / wma(bears,length) dxi = 2 * (100 - 100 / (1+dx)) - 100 // ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- //print values on top chart //alternate labels once above and once below //c = bar_index % 2 == 0 //T = "Bulls = " + tostring(round(bulls)) + " Bears = " + tostring(round(bears)) + " ----------" + " BoP = " + tostring(round(dxi)) //label.new (bar_index, c ? low : high , text = T, size = size.normal, textalign = text.align_left , style = c ? label.style_labelup : label.style_labeldown, color = color.white, textcolor = color.black ) // ================================================================================================================================== // lower plot -- hline(0, color = color.yellow, linestyle = hline.style_solid) plot (wma(score, length), title = 'Classic BoP', color = color.green) plot(dxi, title='BoPx',style=plot.style_line , color = color.gray , linewidth=1) plot(wma(dxi,3), title='BoP II',style=plot.style_line , color= dxi >=0 ? color.aqua : color.orange , linewidth=2)
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by RedKTrader