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Here's what Wall Street economists expects this week.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for continued patience in monitoring inflation trends during his remarks at the Foreign Bankers’ Association's annual meeting in Amsterdam on Tuesday. Powell highlighted that while there was some easing of inflation in the U.S. last year, the first quarter showed unexpectedly high inflation rates, which were not anticipated. Despite these challenges, he maintains a cautious optimism that inflation will gradually return to the Fed's target of 2% over the year, though he admitted his confidence has diminished somewhat following the recent data. Powell concluded by stating that the central bank will closely observe incoming inflation data to determine its future monetary policy actions. This week will see an increase in activity with the upcoming release of the U.S. April consumer price index on Wednesday, which is closely watched by economists focusing on potential changes in Federal Reserve policies, particularly the possibility of interest rate cuts before the end of the year. Recent data has shown a disruption in the declining inflation trend from the first quarter, sparking concerns about persistently higher inflation rates and reduced likelihood of monetary easing, according to Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. In response to these concerns, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated two scenarios that could lead to rate cuts: a reassurance of low inflation rates or a sudden downturn in the labor market. Key events this week include: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April: Scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Economists anticipate that the headline CPI inflation will increase by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, with the year-over-year rate possibly moderating to 3.4%, slightly down from 3.5% the previous month. The core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, might rise by 0.3%, marking the lowest rate since December, with an annual pace expected to decline to 3.6%, a three-year low. Retail Sales for April: Also set for Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, where retail sales are expected to show a modest increase of 0.5%, following a strong 0.7% rise in March. Sales excluding autos might increase by just 0.2%, compared to a 1.1% increase the previous month. Adjustments to March's figures could be made, potentially affecting the April growth figures. Weekly Jobless Claims: On Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, jobless claims are anticipated to decrease by 12,000, offsetting more than half of the previous week's unexpected rise to 231,000, influenced by seasonal employment shifts in New York. Overall, while inflation has shown signs of heating up unexpectedly in the first quarter, economists still forecast a downward trend for the year. The Philadelphia Fed's latest survey suggests that by the fourth quarter, headline inflation could slow to 2.5% annually, with core inflation at 2.7%.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by SroshMayi
Patterns of possible market correction or reversal 😎Trend reversal or correction chart patterns announce a reversal of the current trend on the observed chart. The output of the figure is made, theoretically, in the opposite direction to the movement that precedes the formation of the pattern. In an uptrend, a reversal pattern indicates a bearish move. On the contrary, in a downtrend, it announces an upward movement. It works in all temporalities but, the longer the temporality of the candles, the better the pattern will do and the more effective
Editors' picks
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Ed_Ale
59
Retail vs Institutional InvestorsRetail ✔️Retail Traders are individual traders who buy or sell stocks, securities, or assets from their personal accounts. ✔️Retail Investors mostly focus on technical analysis, price patterns, and Indicators. ✔️Because of low volume, orders submitted by a retail trader cannot affect the price of an asset. ✔️Retail traders can come out of trades or their positions easily at any time with minimum slippage. ✔️Retails investors have more quality of life as they don't have to trade on a regular basis and can take a break whenever they want. Institutions ✔️Institutional traders are highly skilled individuals who have a degree in finance, economy, or math and are employed by large institutions to do the trading. ✔️Institutional traders carry out the most trades over any major exchanges and greatly influence the price of a security, commodity, stock, or cryptocurrency. ✔️Institutional Traders have access to a large amount of capital and exotic products. They also have early access to the latest news and buzz as they have the ability to pay a good amount to various media outlets. ✔️Institutional Traders manage accounts for larger groups or institutions, banks, hedge funds to buy and sell stocks. ✔️Because of large volume orders, institutional traders can greatly impact the prices of a security ✔️Institutional traders focus on fundamentals, sentiments, and trading psychology. What kind of trader are you? And let us know more differences between these two in the comments box below. Follow us for more educational ideas, analyses, and scripts. Happy Trading!
Education
by Tuned_Official
Buy at the tops & sell the bottoms! Richard Ney spoke about think of the market like a warehouse, the owners of the warehouse CM (composite man) needs to fill the building with inventory, they need to sell some as they acquire more - issuing news releases of their grand launch. But their whole objective is to buy at the wholesale rate & sell at retail prices. Think of this in a simple chronology form; Strong hands buy cheap and sell at a higher price – to the retail clients, willing to pay more. This is usually due to the retail buying the tops and selling the bottoms. If you take a look at the CryptoQuant chart - replicated from their site, into @TradingView You will notice the drop off towards the end of Feb. this was in essence the buyers climax. I’ve had several people ask – why would the big boys bail at 40k? Again, you need to think of the wholesale/retail scenario. CM buys low and sells high, retail buy high and sell low. If you apply some Elliott logic here, you will see we were at a weekly 3 & that was finished with a daily 5 – giving the need of a correction (in Warehouse terms) selling inventory, in trading lingo – it’s distribution. Here I posted the map in March; As you can see it played out as expected. Let’s go back to the Wholesale logic by Mr Ney; This is by far the easiest way to think about it. The primary goal of composite man (the market maker) or in the warehouse owner. Is to make money. To do this, they acquire stock or BTC and fill their warehouse(fund). In the accumulation phase, CM (Composite man) needs enough inventory to make it worthwhile, making demand – you will see positive news, attracting the retail to the store. The whole process is about supply and demand. Does he have enough supply for the demand? The warehouse will not be filled with only one truck – it will take several months and multiple deliveries to accumulate enough stock/BTC. Then the emphasis is put on mass marketing! Think a Musk tweet, positive news and so on! Attracting retail buyers – who now have confidence in the product on sale as it’s shot up recently. Supply seemingly limited and demand high! As buyers buy – CM is selling as seen by the Blockfi wallet image above. Price driven up as supply becomes exhausted and demand is peaked! Now what? – well Price is too much for CM to want to buy anything back at an ATH. He wants it back at a new fair value – wholesale price. So, the best thing to do is – cause a little fear and doubt, a political statement or a tweet or two in today’s world. The media is basically yesterday’s news, tomorrow. But so many people buy into it and that allows for the puppeteering. And this is known as the distribution phase. We are now at a 1,3 or 5 Elliott wave. Let’s go with only at 1 in Elliott terms. CM can’t frighten retail too much and needs to keep the dream alive. Or there would be no dumb money buying into the next rally. So, the distribution & re-accumulation phase often blends in the 2nd wave of an Elliott move. If you look inside, you will see the ABC type moves giving hope to retail and gathering a strong position to go again. All CM is doing is filling the shelves in the warehouse. He continues to buy new inventory and sell the old (hedging) And once there’s enough supply to make a new campaign – off he goes, selling to the world. If news is bad at the highs, retail suckers would not buy anymore & CM would be left carrying the weight. Instead, the news is good, knowing a drop is imminent. The same applies at the bottom, if news is good – then retail will be buying in preparation for a move up. CM knows how to balance these moves without showing his hand. It’s knowing that retail fools – will always try to catch the bottom and stay in until the top. And you wonder why it is that retail lose 75% of the time or more! CM simply takes advantage of the retail’s fear and greed. I recently wrote another TradingView article on emotional analysis. This explains a little as to why Elliott, Wyckoff and Dow theory are still used today. The logic from re-accumulation or Elliott 2 – goes on into 3, down to 4 and then up to 5. Before the cycle is completed and a new cycle starts. We cover this in more depth with the education. But I hope you get the general idea here. Enjoy the rest of the weekend! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
47
American millenials being idiots again 😂Extremely bad traders with astonishingly poor intelligence from burgerland fomo'd and dreamt of lambos then decided to baghold once again, and are suing the struggling dying company to maybe get 1 or 2% of their money back (they don't know it yet they dream they can get the full amount back). Gives us something to laugh about, while the number of USO baggies is slowly going down as USO share price slowly goes up (and they are able to breakeven). Here is the story of a bagholder that ate extreme losses on Robinhood in his late 20s. Not from the recent Kodak move, have not found the stories yet, but it's always the same anyway. An individual from San Diego, California, which is probably the bastion state of robinhood millenials, I estimate a good 1/3 of users come from there. www.nytimes.com "Mr. Dobatse, now 32, said he had been charmed by Robinhood’s one-click trading, easy access to complex investment products, and features like falling confetti and emoji-filled phone notifications that made it feel like a game. After funding his account with $15,000 in credit card advances, he began spending more time on the app. As he repeatedly lost money, Mr. Dobatse took out two $30,000 home equity loans so he could buy and sell more speculative stocks and options, hoping to pay off his debts. His account value shot above $1 million this year — but almost all of that recently disappeared. This week, his balance was $6,956." So he gambled and got lucky and made very quick very huge gains and thought he was better than George Soros then lost it all and never had the clarity of mind to get out, and now has an additional 68k in debt. I am sure he believes in socialized losses and is a big Bernie supporter. In 1 article they quote someone from twitter "So he wanted to "trade to pay off his debts" but then kept trading after earning more than enough to do so and then lost it all. The psychological consequences of realizing you are dumbass should be dire.". Exactly. Back to Kodak. Karma is beautiful as ignorant californian socialist tech savy 25 year olds bought this stock following the government (the thing they love so much) making a socialist loan to dying kodak (rather than let them die and allocate capital efficiently), and then the government took the loan away as fast as it gave it. 🙂 I wonder how many davey day trader global day traders bought Kodak and held. Did Dave Portnoy? Saw him get excited at Kodak when the price went up but do not know if he bought. After hundreds of thousands of awful dumb gullible young investors piled into this piece of garbage, the one and only I present Senator Elizabeth Warren, also known as Pocahontas, called for a greater investigation by Congress, because that's so their job. What investigation? Same story as usual. Why is the government focus all on protecting idiots? Rather than spending time on the strong. That's like a pro investor that would always invest in the weakest worse companies and ignore or even tax the strong ones. What a waste of time and counterproductive thing we have going. At least they get those idiots to vote for them. Screw the US economy. This sinking ship is going to collapse faster than the Titanic. I don't think I will ever invest in a US stock. This never gets old. My joy is great and my satisfaction is immeasurable.
NYSE:KODKEducation
by MrRenev
5
The Problems With Retail Traders/Most PeopleI always tell people, if you don't understand how market works, DO NOT EVER touch the financial market. Yes, it is easy to open brokerage account and trade stocks, but how many people know and understand how to do it. I have tried to educate people, but to my dismay, only 1% of my targeted audience are really serious in learning how to trade and invest properly, the rest are there just to play around and thinking that they can become rich easily. And so, I have lost hope in humanity and in most people. They can reach financial freedom if they try to learn how to trade and invest properly, but most of them WILL NEVER reach financial freedom because of their attitude. Therefore, the status quo will remain. Topglove is now the third largest company in the Malaysian stock market, bigger than Tenaga Nasional. For sure, now the price has gone far ahead of Fundamentals. Yes, this is a good company, great company with good dividends. But market never works that way. Sometime in the future the market will PUNISH people. And for those retail traders who FOMOed in and who thinks that they can get rich by buying shares in glove markers, get ready for the day of reckoning and get ready for the slaughtering. The party will not last forever. I have many of my friends who never invested in stocks who and those who have not trade stock for longtime suddenly came RUNNING to me asking me if it is good time to buy Topglove and glove shares. This is one of many sign that we are almost close to the peak in the glove makers. Maybe they can go up more, maybe Top Glove can be number one market cap stock in Bursa Malaysia. Maybe it can reach 200 Billion Ringgit market cap. I don't care. From risk management perspective, it is no longer something that is viable and something where I want to put majority of my capital on. It's time to take profit. it's time to reduce profit. And I told all of these people to just ignore the market, don't ever to try to chase a rally when you don't understand. The smart people or trader knows when to buy and when to sell, you always have the opportunities to buy breakout or dips, but chasing blindly is never a wise strategy. But again, parabolic move and bubble always happen, the easy way to make money is to buy early enough when the trend is shifting and when the breakout is just happening and to try to ride it out as much as possible. And to warn people not to chase the rally. Everything else, nothing much we can do. Securities Commission and Bursa Malaysia, its your responbility to educate the masses, not to encourage speculation. But I doubt they care. They are only for money. Regards. Don't message or comments, I don't read them.
MYX:TOPGLOVEducation
by UnknownUnicorn735418
4
Still think USO is a great way to invest in Oil?An Interactive Broker trader with a $77,000 account thought he would outsmart every institution and every big Oil trader, the result? A $9 million loss. Well done. IB normally doesn't take beginners, you need 2 years experience to trade FX with them (haven't checked futures so I don't know what the rule is for those), and the min account size is 10,000. This day trader (go figure) thought he was smarter than every one, and he went all in, he bet the farm. This alone is stupid, but he went all in without doing his research! Probably a "technical analyst". Weird, I thought magical esoteric TA told you everything you need to know, that everything was built in the chart and info not in the chart was useless noise. Didn't his magical TA tools tell him it would go negative? Well actually if he looked at the ATR / implied volatility he would have seen.... Even I, that has negative balance protection and guaranteed stops, went on the CME site to check announcements. They don't exactly talk about negative prices nor clearly about limit up limit down, but here, with Oil massive volatility, they did confirm that yes indeed they were prepared for negative prices. Thomas Peterffy (the hungarian market billionaire that is not George Soros) said 5 days wasn't enough for IB to update their platform and that's obviously true. Now maybe they should have warned people with messages on the interface, e-mails, maybe set some hard limit to what their clients can do. Maybe they should have had code ready at all time in case this happens. Maybe they share the fault, maybe not. But anyway, being a customer friendly broker, they absorbed losses over 100 million. Meanwhile I did my research, I shorted June contract and made money, and I'm fighting with my shady broker to withdraw some of my gains... They have been condemned by the french regulators years ago for shady business practices go figure, but every retail broker has! And the vast majority of their clients are retail. I'm waiting and waiting and waiting... I have resisted insulting them or calling the regulator for now. The only other broker to give me a hard time was Kraken. They mention anti laundering laws and more, and I understand, but why be so unclear, and ask for documents 5 times rather than all at once, and why ask for the same documents several time, and why be so difficult, only when someone made money? Short Bitcoin on Kraken which was clearly very pro bull, short Oil on *** which had a massive number of retail short sellers (they were on the June contract thought), and then it's an issue. Never had a single problem buying Bitcoin and sending it to a wallet, never a problem when losing money, extreme ease to deposit and start paying commissions, without any warning "getting it out will be very hard". "It's quick instant easy" ye sure, no it's not. The fund running USO clearly said it was a tool for short term bets. It's not made for massive hoardes of dumb money to buy and hold. They have spread over several months to be more nimble, ye looks like its working great! I heard reverse splits were a good sign, that it was smart to invest in a stock after it made a reverse split. Once again, retail that never in their lives made money consistently, thought they knew better than every one else, and that they would get rich quick. Once again, I warned people with what little visibility I had. Once again I was right and retail is getting wiped out. Bagholders are going to argue, they are going to say "just wait", and any spike up will be their celebration and "told you so" "this is it". Same old story. They'll keep arguing, they'll keep bagholding, they'll keep losing. Dumb money at its finest: never understand when you lost. You can never tell them "told you so" because in their mind it's always just a matter of time. When it gets delisted they'll have no choice but to understand they lost, and still then they'll go full lawsuit and dream of getting their money back. How long for this? 5 years? 10 years? Apple Sapphire screen bagholders as I posted recently have gotten like 4% of their money back on average. An average smart (average of the ones in the top) investor or speculator in 10 years will be up 15% compounded, so +300% (turn the total into 400%), and dumb bagholders that wanted to get rich quick "15% a year looool that's pathetic" will be spending their time in courts and dreaming of getting 4% back (turn the total into 4%). Delusion at its finest. There is no free lunch... If Oil was priced at $0.01 there was a very good reason for it. Oil traders weren't just selling at this price because "emotions" "rsi very oversold". It's so risible that some complete noobs that don't understand anything they are doing thought they are just so much smarter than the market, and that whales were just "being emotional" and selling a barrel of Oil at $5, $3, etc just because they were "scaaaaared". Homer Simpson really thought "Aha! Whales are selling Oil at $1 a barrel but they are scared. I, Homer J Simpson, know something they don't! Oil is worth more. I am a visionary!" It's like when Homer went hunting for a Turkey, he just put a nice plate down with rice and other food in, then shouted "Come on Turkey come join your friends" and pointed the gun towards the plate with a big smile on his face, fully convinced a Turkey would jump in his plate. I thought the Simpsons were ridiculous and overly exagerated when I was a kid. How wrong I was. My broker lets me set an order to short USO. Oh my, I sure know what I'm going to do! 2 possibilities actually. The Difference Between Stupidity and Genius Is That Genius Has Its Limits.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by MrRenev
8
Red alert: Idiots are selling! [Entertainment & lesson]We have a code red. I repeat, we have a code red. I can barely breathe! 🤣 I'm crying After USO had their reverse split, the price gapped up. You can check it on robintrack, first there was a strong decline which might be all the people so wiped out they could only afford <8 shares (LOL), but then even after this it keeps going down! robintrack.net It only went up before you can check for yourself. Since february they have only kept buying, the number of holders line never went down even for a day no matter what. And now even after the initial drop that might be explained for other reasons number of holders went down by ~7% There is only 1 explanation: These masterminds thought the price really went up, and they outsmarted institutions, and have locked up profit 😆 Now I don't know if Robinhood had an erronous display, or if they only show the gains since the split maybe (so investors saw green and thought they got their money back), perhaps some are doing "automated trading"? All I know is the price rallied up because of a reverse split and a group of people known to be stupid and have been strictly buying for 2 months without even 1 day of pause, have started selling. These can't be humans... They must be... something else... Hey so if a really solid company made a 1 > 10 split all the animals would be aggressively buying thinking the price dropped 90%? Making money in markets isn't that hard if you take it seriously, just look what kind of absolute imbeciles we are playing against!
AMEX:USOEducation
by MrRenev
14
Biggest mistakes theory in practice.The biggest mistakes and biggest reasons why traders lose keep being repeated. It is more clear when we can see it actually happen. Here we can see the number of holders as well as the increasing money pour in into an Oil ETF while the price is going down. When it will go up those that didn't hang themselves will break even so remind me to check robintrack. United States Oil Fund number of Holders on Robinhood went parabolic as Oil prices plunged robintrack.net Nosediving right now. Trading was halted for this fund www.streetinsider.com > Stop fighting fundamentals & trends because "it's cheap" or "some indicator" > Stop averaging in losers > Cut your losses You can be sure that when they get lucky and get out in the green (and rapidely take minuscule profits) you'll hear from them, and when they get wiped out on huge losers you'll never hear that story.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by MrRenev
1
The Secrets to Forex & Why You're the Wrong Type of Loser (pt.1)This is a 'many-part' educational series to help turn smooth brains into folded brains. The series reveals the true power of the social and psychological factors shaping markets. This is abstracted from 7,000 hours of research in markets and finance and is a synthesized thesis between my research, John Boyd's work on strategy and adaptability, and David Bohm's theories on emergent behavior. The endstate for the reader will be vastly improved risk management, and novel methods for reducing uncertainty. Part 1: Why 85%+ of Retail Traders are the Wrong Type of Loser The true holy grail of markets.. the risk-free rate of return asset, doesn't exist (even perpetuity coupons aren't risk-free). Risk or uncertainty permeates all aspects of our reality. Managing risk is a fundamental component of all business, law, politics, military affairs, sports, etc. It is essential to any form of competition (which markets are). Virtually every element of any strategy employed anywhere involves risk management. It's more than just money... its everything; your relationships, your happiness, your experiences. Your ability to manage risk and uncertainty will positively correlate to your future quality of life. Why? Because we can't see the future, but we live into the future. Thus, no matter your wealth or political power, uncertainty is still your master. Fear of uncertainty drives your psychology, the psychology of other individuals, organizations, and even nations. And what these entities do, affect you. Even at subconscious levels. Those that fight uncertainty, do so at varying levels of competence. In the world of derivatives, and for our interests its sub-class: forex, speculation against uncertainty shapes most of the price discovery experience visualized on your favorite candlebar chart. What happens on your chart on higher timeframes is the result of speculation; even those with carry trade positions are still speculating about rates and central bank decisions. The only people who aren't speculating are insider trading, which is illegal. It's illegal to not speculate... Make no mistake, in the world of speculation, those that fight the best battles, are the ones who fear uncertainty the most and go to the greatest lengths to conquer it. But we already determined that you can't conquer it, you can't see the future. So what does a 'best battle' or 'meeting halfway' even look like in trading? What do you call a loser that doesn't always lose? Let me stop for a second. You're probably thinking: 'this is obvious, no one wants to lose money, everyone is afraid of what they don't know, the future is unknowable, etc' 'How does this help me make money?' First, you need to understand what you are in this game called Markets. In this oddly balanced game, those with the most to lose often have the biggest say. And vice versa. You are the vice versa, the retail trader. Retail traders comprise 4 categories that often overlap, ie: people who usually do not have a professional background in investing/trading, or a professionally relevant education, or professional connections as a major client or data access, or a high networth. Your competitors are the opposite (they are all those things and more): the winners, the market makers, the whales, the money printers, the ones with the biggest say, the old money, the 'smart' money, whatever cringy title you want to give them. Commercials/institutions/fund managers/portfolio managers/pension managers/etc.. These guys are speculating about the future, just like you. But their speculation is what shapes price discovery and market movement, YOURS DOES NOT. This means that whatever you think the market does or should be, DOES NOT MATTER. Your fibonacci, does not matter. Your head and shoulders shampoo/pattern, does not matter. Your sup/res lines, do not matter. Your moon cycles, do not matter. Your RSI/MACD cross, does not matter. The only thing that matters, is what these commercials/institutions think. That's it. If they think that this head and shoulder on the 4h EURUSD matters, then it matters. If they think the moon cycle this month matters, then it matters. If they think communism is good for business, then it matters... etc. It's exactly as irrational as you might think. Now, with their fiduciary responsibilities, they do have to justify their picks. So moon rune interpretation is usually off the table. But guess what. These guys, despite their immense wealth, their research teams stocked with specialists with PhDs, and all the instant access to prime data in the world.. they still lose. They lose all the time, and they lose big. Eye wateringly big. The vast majority are barely winning 60% of the time, if even that... That's why many are offloading into 'less competitive' money-making opportunities; like underwriting, checking accounts, or alternative investments. Competition itself is too much of a risk for their uncertainty appetite. You have to applaud their level of greed. But to stay on target. Whether your technical system is profitable or not is often a factor of the fitness of your indicators with whatever strategy the commercial is using to execute entry implementation (or combination of models or commercial strategies). And when a few of their models/strategies are losing, it makes it even harder to win at this game (or in those instances, your system might win, whilst you rejoice at the amazing ability of your moon cycles to predict the future). But let's back this up, did some of you notice something off? 60%~ ... That's actually not bad. A trader who's experienced at losing (and yet making a profit in the long run) would kill for an average position win rate like that. Instead of thinking, "how do I avoid losers entirely" Stop wasting whatever brainpower you have. Start thinking, "how do I minimize my losers?" The losing positions are always going to happen, no matter your system. All edges fade, and even a mythical system that won 90% of the time will weaken over months or years. But if you learn to master the art of 'losing,' the overall win rate of your positions can AFFORD to be low. In many cases, it could even be less than 50%, and you could still make a living as a trader/investor. The best and brightest, the commercials and institutions, are barely going 60%. What makes you think you can do better? Does it mean all hope is lost? Not even close. It simply means that you need to focus less on your directional/positional bias strategy (the winrate), and more on your risk management strategy. You have to become the right type of retail trading loser, the 15%~ or so that retail brokers survey as profitable. These guys are losing 40%, 50%, 60%, even 70% of the time, and some of the them are still making big money. It's counter-intuitive but they are the guys winning at losing, and turning that into a living. Your ability to survive losers.. to adapt to uncertainty , is the first secret and the most important step into the weird world of profitable derivative trading. Okay, so you might be thinking: "Again, obvious. Isn't that just 2%? Isn't that just low margin? Only trade Majors? 100 pip SL?" If those were the first things you thought, then we still have a very long way to go. Fortunately, this is just the introduction. See you next week for part 2: 'time as the dominant parameter, fair value, and the 'center of gravity.
Education
by CountofCoins
Trapping Breakout and Retracement TradersThis is by no means to be anti-breakout/anti-retracement. I find these entry methods as a valid entry method. As valid as it is, the triggers for such entry method are mostly obvious hence easily to be taken advantage of by the institutional traders. For breakout traders, how these banks would trap is the normal fake breakouts. We all know this as it is a guarantee that it is part of a retail trader, to be the receiving end of this stop hunt. Even if the breakout turns out to be the start of a trend, the institution would tap into the breakout traders stop-loss first (if there is not enough liquidity) before the move continues away from the breakout level. For retracement traders (who prefers the price to retrace first upon the breakout before entry) are not safe with this stop hunt as well. Whatever triggers it was, the stop loss for this traders tends to reside the recent highs or lows of the underlying move. In this example, let's assume the trigger was a bearish engulfing candle. The stop loss would normally be a few pips above the high of the candle. This is just my personal preference with all due respect for those who trades breakouts and retracements (and I am sure some of you made tons of profits trading this way, I just can't make it work and I never able to be comfortable with it, for these reasons I tend to fade breakouts and avoid "retracement" and "continuation" trade triggers respectively. Read my other posts on that has titles like "Navigating the Market" and other educational posts which I share how I navigate the market to eliminate the noise and finding the optimal time to trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by sufiansaid