Investment or Trade Mindset With ExampleNow looking to this chart, if we have long term vision then my question is "How long ?" and "Why Long?". Many of you are already familiar with technical or fundamental analysis but my point is how to discriminate your mind into two half for a same script or same sector.
Coming to the solution:
Let's know about benefits -"FAYDA". If we can then we can ride long term and short term both and by hypothetical calculation it will shock will brain like anything else.
Personally I have no interest to be biased for long term or short term. I can see only "Munafa" means profit.
It's very simple.
Step 1: For long term holding hold the script in account "A"
And for short term use different account "B"
Step 2: Well Define your long term system and short term system and place it in-front of your working table or place.
Step 3: Even for analysis use two different drawing.
Step 4: Even after doing these all your mind will disturb you. Just take a break of your screen by placing alert on your system.
I hope this can help you. Kindly let me know something that I can discuss and share with you.
In this way I am also learning.
Thank you for reading.
Shortterm
What is Dow Theory?The Dow Theory is a financial concept based on a set of ideas from Charles H. Dow‘s writings. Fundamentally, it states that a notable change between bull and bear trend in a stock market will occur when index confirm it.
The trend that is recognized is considered valid when there is strong evidence supporting it. The theory states that if two indicators move in the same way, the primary trend that is identified is genuine.
However, if the two indicators don’t align, then there is no clear trend. This approach mainly focuses on changes in prices and trading volumes. It uses visual representations and compares different indicators to identify and understand trends.
Dow Theory:
The Dow Theory originated from the analysis of market price movements and speculative viewpoints proposed by Charles H. Dow. It served as a fundamental building block for technical analysis, especially in a time when modern software-based technical analysis tools did not exist.
Robert Rhea’s book “The Dow Theory” thoroughly explores the evolution and significance of the theory in speculative endeavours, closely examining the Wall Street Journal editorials written by Charles H. Dow and William Peter Hamilton in the 19th century.
This theory represents one of the earliest efforts to comprehend the market by considering fundamental factors that provide insights into future trends.
The main version of the theory primarily focuses on comparing the closing prices of two averages: the Dow Jones Rail (or Transportation) (DJT) and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI). The premise was that if one average surpassed a specific level, the other average would eventually follow suit. Dow used an analogy to illustrate this concept, likening the market to the ocean.
He explained that just as waves rise to a certain point on one side of the beach, waves on another part of the beach will eventually reach that same point. Similarly, in the market, different sectors are interconnected, and when one sector shows a particular trend, others tend to follow suit as they are part of a larger whole.
The Paradigms of Dow Theory:
To comprehend the theory, it is essential to grasp the various rules formulated by Dow. These principles, often referred to as the tenets of Dow theory, serve as guiding paradigms
Three major market trends:
The tenets of Dow Theory classify trends based on their duration into primary, secondary, and minor trends. Primary trends can be either upward (uptrend) or downward (downtrend) and can last for months to years.
Secondary trends move in the opposite direction to the primary trend and typically last for weeks or a few months. Minor trends, on the other hand, are considered insignificant variations that occur over a shorter time span, ranging from a few hours to weeks, and are considered less significant than the primary and secondary trends.
Primary trends have three distinct phases:
Bear markets can be divided into three distinct phases: distribution, public participation, and panic.
In the distribution phase, there is a gradual selling off of assets by investors.
The public participation phase occurs when more individual investors start selling their holdings, leading to a broader decline in the market.
The panic phase is characterized by widespread fear and selling pressure, often resulting in a sharp and rapid decline in prices.
On the other hand, bull markets experience three phases: accumulation, public participation, and excess.
During the accumulation phase, astute investors start buying assets at lower prices, anticipating an upward trend.
The public participation phase occurs as more investors join the market and buy assets, contributing to the market’s upward momentum.
The excess phase represents a period of exuberance and speculative buying, often marked by overvaluation and unsustainable price increases.
Stock market discount everything:
Market indexes are highly responsive to various types of information. They can reflect the overall condition of an entity or the economy as a whole.
For example, any significant economic events or problems in company management can impact stock prices and cause movements in the indexes, either upward or downward.
Trend confirms with volume:
When there is an uptrend, trading volume rises and decreases while a downtrend starts
Index confirm each other:
When multiple indices move in a consistent manner, following the same pattern, it indicates the presence of a trend.
This alignment among indices provides a strong signal of market direction. However, when two indices move in opposite directions, it becomes challenging to determine a clear trend. In such cases, conflicting signals make it difficult to deduce a definitive market trend.
Trends continue until solid factors imply the reversal:
Traders should be careful of trend reversals, as they can often be mistaken for secondary trends. To avoid this confusion, Dow advises investors to exercise caution and verify trends with multiple sources before considering it a genuine reversal.
How Does Dow Theory Work in Technical Analysis?
The Dow Theory played a crucial role in the development of technical analysis in the stock market and served as its foundational principle. Which, approach to analysis highlights the importance of closely observing market data to identify trends, reversals, and optimal entry and exit points for maximizing profits.
As the market is considered an indicator of future performance, the application of technical analysis based on the Dow Theory helps investors make profitable trading decisions by identifying established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this approach, investors can gain insights into market dynamics and make informed decisions to enhance their trading outcomes.
In conclusion:
The Dow Theory has significantly influenced technical analysis in the stock market, serving as a cornerstone for its development and advancement. By analysing the careful examination of market data, this theory helps traders to identify trends, spot reversals, and determine optimal buy and sell points for maximizing profits.
The market itself is considered a reliable indicator of future performance, and technical analysis aligned with the Dow Theory assists investors in making profitable trading decisions by detecting established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this analytical framework, investors can gain valuable insights into market behaviour and make well-informed choices to improve their trading outcomes. The Dow Theory’s enduring impact continues to guide traders in their pursuit of success in the dynamic world of stock market investing.
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💻📞☎️ always do your research.
💌📫📃 If you have any questions, you can write me in the comments below, and I will answer them.
📊📌❤️And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
Benefits of short term investment📊 Benefits of Short Term Investment 📊
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🔴 Short-term investing offers flexibility to the investor as they do not need to wait for the security to mature in order to get cash. On the other hand, long-term investments can be liquidated by selling in the secondary market, but the investor earns lower profits.
🔴 Investors can make substantial profits in a very short amount of time.
🔴 It is less risky as money invested per transaction is substantially lower.
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Money Supply, Velocity, Inflation, Rates & the Federal ReserveI was taught in undergrad that adding to the money supply is inflationary . The logic was, you print more bills; the existing currency gets diluted in buying power.
Following the ‘Crises of 2008’ the Fed launches Quantitative easing and purchases long term securities increasing the money supply and lowering rates. This activity would result in more investment and encourage lending. Keep in mind the lever the Fed historically wielded was changing the short-term interest rate, so by lowering the discount rate that banks pay on short term loans from the Fed, the Fed is able to provide liquidity and – ease. Monetary Policy's version of stimulus.
Quantitative Easing was much more potent and was a lever that enabled much more control for the Fed, and control over a longer time frame.
Keep in mind the mandate of the Fed:
Maximum Employment
Stable Prices
Moderate Long-Term Interest Rates
One can see that the Fed's tool kit was easily justified by the Board of Governors as they sought to fulfill Congress’ mandate. Not to mention the stability here is global, at least the Fed is responsible for keeping everything stable. This status for America globally is a great privilege. Many Americans are not cognizant of what this affords to us as individuals in this nation.
QE did result in in inflation, but the environment has not been unruly with any problematic inflation , and we certainly did not get any Hyper-Inflation like so many economist were shouting about, especially those grounded in traditional economic ideology.
This new environment has me wondering again how this will all play out of course as the parts at play are each so multifaceted. With that said, I would think we see inflation rise especially with the macro environment of easing and potential fiscal policy and the Federal Funds rate being this low. With that said, the biggest concern I have with this thought process is curiosity of what was stated by Jerome Powell in the last FOMC meeting – rates will be at these levels near the zero-bound (limit of 0% for short-term rates) with the Fed setting a higher target for inflation . Keep in mind the Fed has never been able to hit their recent targets for inflation for years, yet now they want the target even higher. With that thinking in mind, he seemed to indicate the reason the Federal Funds rate can be so low for so long is because inflation will not even be getting to their own target, just as it hasn't in recent memory. Again I still have a bias towards a weaker dollar and inflation – I am however readily willing to change my mind on a moments notice here as we see what actually transpires. I have an alternative to all the "deflation" vs "inflation" debates - an environment that will be stable with just modest inflation.
Please be sure to comment, debate and let me know where you think the dollar goes next.
Easiest Set up for high probability trades. GBPAUD +50 pipsMorning everyone here is a beautiful example of a 50 pip trade on GBPAUD during the London session.
The pound has been dropping over the course of the week, so when it comes to Wednesday ( mid-week ) we can look for the midweek reversal inline with the market maker cycle.
combined with round and quarter levels you can see the zones in which the market is trading.
In Asia, we see a big shift into the upper zone. Trapping short traders.
London dropped to pick up spending and stops before giving us a classic W formation.
For entry, wait for the neck to be broken and set your stop loss for -20 pips ( Unless its GJ then the stop is 25 pips )
Why GBP pairs? well, they have the largest ADR, meaning its most likely we can catch the 50 pips a day.
Very simple and very effective strategy, trade inline with the whales and market makers, avoid the traps and watch your trading improve exponentially.
Feel free to leave a comment.
Davie.
🕛Short-term (intraday) trading 🕛
HELLO, MY DEAR FRIENDS!💋
🧾I continue sharring with you knowledge about trading . I hope my posts will be a little useful for new traders.
😘
Today let's talk about short-term trading.🕛
👉🏻Intraday trading - it's short-term trading, but number of transactions is less than with scalping.👆🏻
📌Basic principles for short-term (intraday) trading:
🔅Observation (if you can’t observe the charts and analyze their movement - "intraday" is not for you).
🔅Efficiency of thinking (at some point you need to see that it is time to enter the market and practically enter into it ).
🔅The experience of trading on the exchange is very important (without enough experience, you will not be able to fulfill paragraph 1 and paragraph 2).
🔅The ability to correctly set a “stop order” (the result of trading within a day depends on the correct “stop order”; otherwise, you will simply fix losses).
🔅Determine the exit point from the position (it is necessary to correctly move your “stop order” after the market movement, which, in the event of a change in trend, will fix your profit).
🔅Use no more than 5-10% of your deposit in total on “intraday”.
👌🏻Short-term trading or intraday trading is the beginning of the career of any trader.
For short-term trading, less initial capital is required, ✔and there is also an excellent opportunity for quick testing of selected trading systems.✔
I tried to give a very brief description of my vision of short-term trading.💪🏻
🥰I hope you were interested.
Thank you for support with like💘. And especially for the feedback.🌹🌹🌹
✍🏻✍🏻✍🏻Write in the comments, topics that you interest in, I will be happy to create a post on these topics.😘
Stay with me👍🏻
Love you💘
Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
BTC STILL GOING DOWN ? BTC is still ranging in a not so tight range, seems like some form of consolidation on these levels, trying to drop its RSI without losing too much in price.
I am of the opinion that BTC needs a clear strong break above the red arrown line ( above $7700 ish) and not close below this level to turn bullish.
If BTC remains under $7400, my opinion is there's still risk to go as low as $6400 ish.
NOTE: This is not financial advise. This is my opinion of current BTC situation put down for for observation.