Does the yield curve inversion signal recession?The famous negative curve.
This market concept is used when the US02Y or US03Y operate at higher levels than the US10Y, this behavior usually anticipates recessions, but why does this happen?
The inversion of the yield curve distorts the expected functionality of the financial system.
Under "normal" conditions, raising funds in the short term for investment in longer terms is used to provide positive arbitrage between interest rates on liabilities (paid) and assets (received), a strategy subject to the limits of the rollover capacity of the liabilities and raising new funds.
The availability of assets with higher premiums and liquidity, US02Y and US03Y, makes it less attractive to offer funds for longer terms < US10Y, and more expensive to raise funds for those who demand funds for shorter terms.
So the interest curve is considered a kind of thermometer of what lies ahead in an economy, and it is the graphic representation of how much investors are charging to lend money in different maturities, and once it is inverted, it means that it is more expensive to borrow in the short term than in the long term – an unusual thing, because more distant payment dates mean greater risks for the borrower.
In the US economy, a widely documented fact is that yield curve inversion (i.e., when there is a negative differential between long-term versus short-term bond yields) is a good leading indicator of periods of economic contraction. four to six quarters ahead.
According to data available on the Federal Reserve website, yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967.
There is also evidence that indicators of this nature are important predictors of periods of economic contraction in other countries.
But are there any silver linings to this unusual reversal scenario? Yes, in these moments of greater uncertainty we have an interesting opportunity to buy good companies at low prices.
This is because after the monetary tightening cycle, the economy usually weakens, during this period risk assets suffer, considering that their future projections will suffer due to the scenario, so many of the market participants seek security in bonds, others seek to anticipate the recovery considering that as soon as this CORRECTIVE cycle ends, a new UPWARD CYCLE tends to maintain perennial companies and give birth to many new companies that arise in the face of challenging scenarios.
Sp500short
Is your money worth reading "maybe´s"Hello Trenders,
Been thinking a lot to or to not publish this signal. Many of you expect a deep on global level, therefore I here show you some mathematic forecast.
This may not be the end of the world, yet it is far worse than the most downbeat forecasts. The evidence to support this outlook is in plain
sight. Some sixth-grade math is a good place to begin the analysis. Make 2019 economic output 100 (the actual figure is $22 trillion; “100” is
100 percent of that number; a convenient way to measure ups and downs). Assume output drops 20 percent over the second and third
quarters of 2020 (many estimates project larger drops; 20 percent is a plausible if conservative estimate). A 20 percent drop for six months
equals a 10 percent drop for the full year, assuming the first and fourth quarters are flat on net. A 10 percent drop from 100 = 90 (or $2.2
trillion of lost output).
Since 1948, U.S. annual real growth in GDP has never exceeded 10 percent. Since 1984, real growth has never exceeded 5 percent. The
highest-growth years since the end of World War II were 8.7 percent in 1950, 8 percent in 1951, and 7.2 percent in 1984. An assumption
that real growth will occur in 2021 at a 6 percent annual rate is a generous if unrealistic assumption. Such growth would qualify as a Vshaped recovery.
If our new base is 90 (compared with 100 in 2019) and we increase output by 6 percent in 2021, this brings total output to 95.4. If we
enter 2022 with the new base of 95.4 and increase that base by 4 percent (so, 95.4 × 1.04), we come to 99.2 in total output by the end of
2022. Here’s the problem. Using 100 as a baseline for 2019 output, and assuming 6 percent real growth in 2021 and 4 percent in 2022 (rates
of growth that have not happened on an annual basis since 1984), the economy does not get back to 2019 output levels. The hard truth is
that 99.2 < 100.
Source : The new great depression (2021).
What about if we really have a second wave harder then the first with mutatied covid?
I want to add, is not my intention to spread panic or "maybe´s" but the study got my attention.
Even the legends will have trouble surviving if this happen.
So how can a trader survive in this case condition by trading as only source of income???
Perhaps agricultural commodities will always perform....
The United States EconomyAs a Forex Trader who lives in the United States and trades many USD based pairs I frequently refer to multiple indexes that represent the possible strength and trends of the Dollar.
I would like to share this post for the spectators and students of the markets.
The chart on the left is a 2-Week chart representing a four year uptrend of the S & P 500.
The chart on the left formed a double top pattern (two mountain tops) which is a classic pattern that forms when a bullish run is most likely over. After that pattern we saw roughly a 50% drop throughout the entire year of 2008.
Now, fast forward to 2018 and we are currently reaching what looks like to be the beginning of another double top, or mountain formation, it will most likely take another year or two to complete. But, by year 2020 ish we will potentially be looking at a massive drop again. However, my prediction is that this drop will last 1-2 years because this uptrend has been going on for longer then the first one, almost a full decade!
The diagonal trend line is our Bullish support. When/if that gets broken like it did before. The drop should begin to take place!
Always look at the bigger picture! Invest wisely.
Happy Holidays!
