Risk Management: The Key to Trading SuccessCut the Cord: A Trader's Survival Guide
How to Cut Losses Wisely: A Trader's Guide
Mastering the Exit: A Trader's Handbook
As a trader, it's inevitable to encounter losing trades. However, the key to success lies in how you manage these losses. By implementing effective strategies, you can minimize their impact and stay on track towards your financial goals.
1. Manage Your Risk:
Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Diversify your portfolio, spread your investments across different assets, and avoid over-leveraging. By managing your risk, you can protect your capital and prevent a single losing trade from causing significant damage.
2. Set Stop-Loss Orders:
Your stop-loss order acts as a safety net, protecting your capital from excessive losses. Determine a specific price point at which you'll exit a trade if it moves against you. This helps prevent emotional trading decisions and ensures you stay disciplined.
3. Consider Trailing Stop-Loss Orders:
A trailing stop-loss is a dynamic order that adjusts automatically as the price moves in your favor. It allows you to lock in profits while still protecting against potential losses. This can be a valuable tool for managing your positions effectively.
4. Stick to Your Trading Plan:
A well-defined trading plan is your roadmap to success. It outlines your strategies, risk management rules, and exit points. Adhering to your plan, even during challenging times, helps avoid impulsive decisions that can lead to further losses.
5. Stay Informed:
Keep up-to-date with market news, economic indicators, and industry trends. Understanding the factors driving price movements can help you anticipate potential risks and make informed decisions.
6. Cut Your Losses Quickly:
Don't hold onto losing trades in the hope that they will recover. Cut your losses promptly to minimize the damage and preserve your capital for future opportunities.
7. Learn from Your Mistakes:
Every losing trade is an opportunity to learn and improve. Analyze your trades, identify the reasons for the losses, and adjust your strategies accordingly. By learning from your mistakes, you can become a more successful trader.
8. Take Breaks:
Emotional fatigue can lead to poor decision-making. When you're feeling overwhelmed or stressed, take a break from trading to allow yourself time to recharge and regain perspective.
9. Seek Guidance:
If you're struggling to manage losses or unsure about your trading strategies, consider seeking advice from a mentor or professional trader. They can provide valuable insights and help you develop effective risk management techniques.
10. Maintain a Positive Mindset:
Trading can be emotionally challenging, but it's important to maintain a positive mindset. Focus on your long-term goals, learn from your setbacks, and believe in your ability to succeed.
Remember, losing trades are a natural part of trading. By adopting these strategies, you can effectively manage your losses, protect your capital, and increase your chances of long-term success.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Trailingstop
Trailing Stop Loss: Maximizing Gains while Managing RisksIn the dynamic world of financial markets, where assets sway in value like dancers on a stage, mastering the art of risk management is essential. Traders, akin to choreographers, must orchestrate a delicate balance between potential gains and potential losses. Among the many tools in their arsenal, the trailing Stop Loss stands out as a dynamic approach that adjusts to the rhythm of market fluctuations, ensuring that investors stay nimble in the face of uncertainty.
Understanding the Trailing Stop Loss
A trailing Stop Loss is not just a safety net; it's a strategic maneuver designed to protect profits and limit losses. Unlike its static counterpart, the traditional Stop Loss, which remains fixed below the current market price, the trailing Stop Loss moves dynamically in response to price movements, trailing behind like a faithful companion.
Here's how it works:
1.Setting the Initial Stop : When an investor enters a position, they establish an initial Stop Loss level, typically a percentage or a fixed amount below the purchase price.
2.Dynamic Adjustment: As the asset's price ascends, so does the trailing Stop Loss, maintaining a set distance below the peak price. This dynamic adjustment allows investors to capture profits as the market climbs while safeguarding against sudden downturns.
3. Locking in Profits: With each upward move in price, the trailing Stop Loss readjusts, effectively locking in gains. This feature enables traders to capitalize on favorable market conditions without constantly monitoring their positions.
4. Triggering the Stop: However, should the market reverse course and the price begins to descend, the trailing Stop Loss activates, executing a market order once it reaches the predefined distance from the peak. This mechanism shields investors from significant losses during market downturns.
In essence, the trailing Stop Loss serves as a flexible shield, adapting to market dynamics and allowing traders to navigate the ever-changing landscape with confidence.
Implementing a Trailing Stop Loss
Crafting an effective trailing Stop Loss strategy requires careful consideration and precision. Here's a step-by-step guide to setting up this dynamic risk management tool:
1. Choose a Reliable Platform: Select a reputable trading platform or broker that supports trailing Stop Loss orders, ensuring access to essential features and functionalities.
2. Select the Asset: Decide which asset you want to trade, whether it's stocks, cryptocurrencies, forex pairs, or other financial instruments.
3. Determine the Trailing Amount: Settle on an appropriate trailing amount, considering your risk tolerance and market conditions. This parameter dictates the distance between the current market price and the trailing Stop Loss level.
4. Place the Order: Access your chosen trading platform and locate the option to place a trailing Stop Loss order. Enter the necessary details, including the quantity, trailing amount, and any additional parameters.
5. Review and Confirm: Double-check all order details before confirming the trade, ensuring accuracy and alignment with your trading objectives.
6. Monitor and Adjust: Once the order is executed, monitor the market closely and be prepared to adjust your trailing Stop Loss level as needed. Stay informed about market trends and news events that may impact your positions.
By following these steps and remaining vigilant, traders can harness the power of trailing Stop Loss orders to optimize their risk management strategies and capitalize on market opportunities.
Navigating the Pitfalls
While trailing Stop Loss orders offer undeniable benefits, they are not without their challenges. Traders must be aware of potential pitfalls and exercise caution to avoid unnecessary losses:
1. Market Volatility: In times of heightened volatility, trailing Stop Loss orders may trigger prematurely, leading to suboptimal outcomes.
2. Whipsaw Movements: Rapid fluctuations in price can result in whipsaw movements, where the Stop Loss is activated only to see the market reverse direction shortly after.
3. Intraday Fluctuations: For intraday traders, frequent price swings within a single trading session may trigger multiple Stop Loss orders, eroding profits.
4. Overemphasis on Short-Term Movements: Relying too heavily on trailing Stop Loss orders may cause traders to overlook the long-term potential of an asset, focusing solely on short-term gains.
5. Technical Glitches: Despite advancements in technology, trading platforms are not immune to technical glitches, which could impact order execution and adjustment.
6. Psychological Impact: The frequent triggering of Stop Loss orders may induce stress and emotional decision-making, undermining the trader's confidence and discipline.
7. Risk of Missed Opportunities: A conservative trailing Stop Loss may protect against losses but could also result in missed opportunities for further gains if the market experiences temporary setbacks.
Trailing Stop Limit Versus Trailing Stop Loss
Trailing Stop Loss and Trailing Stop Limit are both order types utilized in trading to manage potential losses, yet they diverge in their execution methods. Here's a concise comparison:
Trailing Stop Loss
A Trailing Stop Loss order aims to curb losses by automatically adjusting the stop price as the market price moves favorably. As the market price rises, the stop price trails behind at a predetermined distance. If the market price falls, the stop price remains static. Upon reaching or surpassing the stop price, a market order is triggered to sell the asset.
Trailing Stop Limit
Trailing Stop Limit orders blend features of stop loss and limit orders. Like Trailing Stop Loss, the stop price adjusts as the market price moves favorably. However, instead of activating a market order upon reaching the stop price, a limit order is placed. This limit order sets the minimum price at which the asset should be sold. When the market price hits or exceeds the stop price, a limit order is triggered, and the asset is sold at the set limit price or better.
Key distinctions between Trailing Stop Loss and Trailing Stop Limit:
Order Type: Trailing Stop Loss executes a market order upon reaching the stop price, while Trailing Stop Limit initiates a limit order under the same condition.
Execution Certainty: Trailing Stop Loss ensures execution without specifying the exact selling price, whereas Trailing Stop Limit stipulates a specific price or better, with no guarantee of execution if the limit price isn't met.
Price Adjustment: Both orders automatically adjust the stop price in response to favorable market movements.
Flexibility: Trailing Stop Loss is straightforward and simpler in execution, while Trailing Stop Limit, though offering more control over the selling price, introduces complexity.
Considerations for choosing between Trailing Stop Loss and Trailing Stop Limit include factors like market conditions, asset liquidity, trading strategies, risk tolerance, and preferences regarding execution and price control.
Determining an Effective Trailing Stop Loss Percentage
Selecting the right trailing stop loss percentage involves evaluating various factors influencing a trader's decision-making process. There's no universally optimal percentage; it depends on individual preferences and market conditions.
Considerations include the asset's volatility, trader risk tolerance, market conditions, trading time frame, historical price movements, overall trading strategy, and how trailing stop loss percentages interact with other risk management tools.
Adapting the trailing stop loss percentage as the trade progresses allows for a dynamic response to evolving market dynamics and risk factors. The goal is to strike a balance between providing the trade enough room to develop and protecting against significant losses.
In conclusion
Implementing trailing stop loss emerges as a crucial strategy in trading, enabling traders to secure profits while mitigating losses and maintaining a delicate risk-reward balance. Continuous education and staying informed about market trends remain essential for traders to make informed decisions and navigate financial markets confidently.
Beating the S&P500 (SPX) Buy&Hold strategy by 16 timesS&P500 (SPX) strategy using Stochastic RSI Min-Max, normalized Volatility and Trailing Stop signals, beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 16 times
Embarking on the quest to time the market accurately, the 'Holy Grail' of strategies, led me to create a script to approach this goal. Unlike other strategies that I tested, this one not only surpasses the long-term S&P500 Buy&Hold approach but does so by a remarkable 16.38 times!
Initially, I employed an A.I. program based on an LSTM Neural Network using TensorFlow. Despite achieving a 55% next-day prediction accuracy for short/long positions, I sought improvement using a heuristic pine-scripting approach, incorporating stochastic RSI oscillators, moving averages, and volatility signals.
With default parameters, this strategy, freely available as "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" delivered a staggering 2,663,001% profit since February 1871. In the same period, the Buy&Hold strategy "only" generated 162,599% profit. Picture this: a $1,000 investment in 1871 would now be worth $26,630,014 by February 2024. Check it out for yourself loading this strategy.
The script operates as a Stochastic RSI Min-Max script, automatically generating buy and sell alerts on the S&P500 SPX. What sets it apart? The strategy detects "corrections," minimizes losses using Trailing Stop and Moving Average parameters, and strategically re-enters the market after detecting bottoms using tuned Stochastic RSI signals and normalized Volatility thresholds.
Tailor its parameters to your preference, use it for strategic exits and entries, or stick to the Buy&Hold strategy and start new buy trades at regular intervals using buy signals only. In the pursuit of minimizing losses, the script has learned the effectiveness of a 9% trailing stop on trades. As you can clearly see on the upper graph (revolving around 100), the average overall green surfaces (profits) of all trades are much bigger than the average red surfaces (losses). This follows Warren Buffets first rule of trading to "Never lose money" and thus minimizing losses.
Update: Advanced S&P500 Stochastic RSI Min-Max Buy/Sell Alert Generator
I have also created an Alerter script based on the same engine as this script, which auto-generates buy and sell alert signals (via e-mail, in-app push-notifications, pop-ups etc.).
The script is currently fine-tuned for the S&P500 SPX tracker, but parameters can be fine-tuned upon request for other trackers or stocks.
If you are interested in this alerter-version script or fine-tuning other trackers, please drop me a message or mail xplorr at live dot com.
How to use this Strategy?
Select the SPX (S&P500) graph and set the value to "Day" values (top) and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right).
Select in the Indicators the "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" script and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right)
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values "Percent Profitable" and "Net Profit" (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters).
How to interpret the graphical information?
In the SPX graph, you will see the Buy(Blue) and Sell(Purple) labels created by the strategy.
The green/red graph below shows the accumulated profit/loss in % of to the initial buy value of the trade (it revolves around 100%, 110 means 10% profit, 95 means 5% loss)
The small purple blocks indicate out-of-trade periods
The green graph below the zero line is the stochastic RSI buy signal. You can set a threshold (green horizontal line). The vertical green lines show minima below that threshold and indicate possible buy signals.
The blue graph above the zero line is the normalized volatility signal. You can set a threshold (blue horizontal line) affecting buy signals.
The red graph above the zero line is the slower stochastic RSI sell signal. You can set a threshold (red horizontal line). The red areas indicate values above that threshold.
However real exits are triggered if close values are crossing below the trailing stop value or optionally when the fast moving average crosses under the slow one. The red areas above the threshold are rather indicative to show that the SPX is expensive and not ideal to enter. Please note that in bullish periods the red line and areas can stay at a permanent high value, so it is not ideal to use as a strict sell signal. However, when it drops below zero and the green vertical lines appear, these are strong buy signals together with a high volatility.
These Parameters can be changed
Buy Stochastic Lookback
Buy Stochastic Smoother
Buy Threshold
Buy Only After Fall
Minimum % Fall
Sell Stochastic Lookback
Sell Stochastic Smoother
Sell Threshold
Sell Only With Profit
Minimum % Profit
Use Sell MA
Fast MA Sell
Slow MA Sell
MA Sell Threshold
Use Buy Volatility
Volatility Smoother
Volatility Threshold
Use Trailing Stop
Use ATR (iso of a fixed percentage for the trailing stop)
ATR Lookback
Trailing Stop Factor(or fixed percentage if "use ATR" is false)
Trailing Stop Smoother
Important : optimizing and using these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
Minervini’s Specific Exit CriteriaIntroduction
In this tutorial, we delve into the heart of Mark Minervini's trading philosophy—his specific exit criteria. Mastering the art of exiting a trade is as important as knowing when to enter. Minervini, a renowned stock market wizard, emphasizes that the secret to successful trading lies not just in selecting the right stocks but also in understanding when to sell them. This section focuses on three fundamental aspects of his exit strategy: the Stop-Loss Strategy, the Profit Target Strategy, and the Trailing Stop Strategy.
Each part of this section is designed to provide you with a deep understanding of these strategies, integrating the wisdom of Minervini's approach with practical, actionable steps. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting, mastering these exit strategies will empower you to make informed decisions, manage risks effectively, and maximize your trading potential. Let's embark on this journey to unravel the nuances of Minervini's exit strategies and apply them to enhance our trading acumen.
1. Stop-Loss Strategy
Introduction to Stop-Loss Orders
Definition: A stop-loss order is a vital tool in trading, particularly in swing trading strategies like those advocated by Mark Minervini. It is an order placed with a broker to buy or sell a stock once it reaches a predetermined price. The primary function of a stop-loss order is to limit an investor's loss on a security position. By automatically triggering a sell or buy order when the stock price hits the specified level, it prevents further loss.
Importance in Minervini's Strategy: Mark Minervini, a renowned swing trader, places a strong emphasis on risk management in his trading approach. For Minervini, a stop-loss order is not just a safety net; it's a critical component of successful trading strategy. He asserts that controlling losses is just as important as securing gains. By setting a stop-loss, a trader can ensure that their losses are controlled and predictable, which is essential in the volatile world of stock trading.
Setting Stop-Loss Levels
• Percentage-Based Stop-Loss: One of Minervini's key strategies involves setting stop-loss orders at a fixed percentage below the purchase price. This percentage is typically between 7% and 8%. For instance, if you purchase a stock at $100, setting a stop-loss order at 7% would mean placing it at $93. This method is straightforward and can be easily applied to any trade.
• Volatility-Adjusted Stop-Loss: Minervini also advises adjusting stop-loss levels according to the stock's volatility. Volatile stocks, which have larger price swings, may require a wider stop-loss order to avoid being prematurely stopped out. For example, if a stock is known to fluctuate by around 10% regularly, setting a stop-loss closer than this percentage could lead to an unnecessary sale. In such cases, a wider stop-loss, perhaps around 12-15%, might be more appropriate.
Practical Examples
• Example with a Less Volatile Stock: Consider a stable stock, XYZ, trading at $50. Following Minervini's percentage-based strategy, you could set a stop-loss at 7% below the purchase price, which would be $46.50. This level ensures that if the stock unexpectedly declines, your maximum loss will be limited to 7%.
• Example with a Volatile Stock: Now, let's take a more volatile stock, ABC, which is also trading at $50. Given its higher volatility, a 10% stop-loss might be more appropriate, setting the stop-loss order at $45. This wider margin accounts for the stock's normal fluctuations, reducing the likelihood of a sale triggered by ordinary market volatility.
In both examples, it’s crucial to monitor the stock performance and adjust the stop-loss orders as necessary, especially in response to significant market events or changes in the stock's fundamentals.
This section of the tutorial underscores the critical role of stop-loss orders in implementing Minervini's trading strategies. By effectively using stop-loss orders, traders can manage risks, control potential losses, and enhance their overall trading performance.
2. Profit Target Strategy
In Mark Minervini's trading philosophy, setting realistic profit targets is a cornerstone of successful trading. This strategy involves a careful analysis of historical data, chart patterns, and specific criteria established by Minervini. The aim is to identify a potential exit point that maximizes gains while minimizing risks.
Setting Realistic Profit Targets
• Analyzing Historical Data: Start by reviewing the historical performance of the stock. Look for patterns in how much the stock typically moves after breaking out of a base. This gives an insight into what might be a realistic target.
• Understanding Chart Patterns: Chart patterns play a vital role in setting profit targets. For instance, the 'cup and handle' pattern can provide clues about the potential upside. The depth of the cup or the height of the handle can be used to project the upward move.
• Minervini's Criteria: Minervini often looks for stocks with strong fundamentals and a history of robust earnings growth. The idea is to invest in stocks that have the potential to make significant moves.
Risk-Reward Ratio
• Definition and Importance: The risk-reward ratio is a measure used to compare the expected returns of an investment to the amount of risk undertaken to capture these returns. A favorable risk-reward ratio for Minervini is typically around 3:1 or higher. This means for every dollar risked, there is a potential to make three dollars.
• Application in Profit Targets: When setting profit targets, consider the potential downside (or the distance to your stop-loss) and set a target that adheres to this ratio. For example, if your stop-loss is set to result in a $1 loss per share, your profit target should aim for at least a $3 gain per share.
Examples
• Example 1: Stable Stock with Moderate Volatility: Let's say you buy a stock at $100, and based on historical performance and chart analysis, you expect it could rise to $120. If your stop-loss is set at $95 (a $5 risk per share), your profit target of $120 provides a risk-reward ratio of 4:1, aligning with Minervini’s strategy.
• Example 2: High Growth Stock with High Volatility: Consider a high-growth stock purchased at $50. The historical data and chart patterns suggest a potential target of $70. If your stop-loss is at $45 (risking $5 per share), then the profit target of $70 gives a risk-reward ratio of 4:1.
In each example, the key is to align the profit target with the calculated risk-reward ratio, ensuring that the potential gains justify the risks being taken. This disciplined approach to setting profit targets is integral to Minervini’s strategy and can significantly influence the success of your trading endeavors.
3. Understanding Trailing Stops
In the context of Mark Minervini's trading strategies, trailing stops are a dynamic and essential tool for managing positions and protecting profits. They are particularly significant in swing trading, where capturing trends and reacting to market changes promptly is crucial.
Definition and Benefits
• Definition: A trailing stop is a type of stop-loss order that moves with the market price. Unlike a standard stop-loss, which remains fixed once set, a trailing stop adjusts as the price of the stock moves in a favorable direction. The trailing stop is set at a percentage or a specific dollar amount below the market price.
• Benefits: The primary benefit of a trailing stop is its ability to secure profits while allowing room for further growth. As the stock price increases, the trailing stop follows it up, maintaining the set distance. If the stock price falls, the trailing stop remains stationary, and a sell order is triggered if the price hits the trailing stop level. This method effectively locks in profits and limits losses without the need for constant manual adjustment.
Application in Swing Trading
• Importance in Minervini’s Strategy: Minervini, known for his precise swing trading tactics, emphasizes the use of trailing stops for capturing the maximum possible trend movement while safeguarding the gains. In swing trading, where the goal is to capture short- to medium-term trends, trailing stops ensure that traders do not exit a position too early during a favorable trend or too late when the trend reverses.
Setting Trailing Stops
• Methods: There are several methods to set trailing stops:
• Fixed Percentage: This involves setting the trailing stop at a fixed percentage below the market price. For example, a 5% trailing stop on a stock currently at $100 would be placed at $95.
• Specific Dollar Amount: Here, the trailing stop is set at a specific dollar amount below the market price. For a stock at $100, a $5 trailing stop would be placed at $95.
• Technical Indicators: Some traders use technical indicators, like moving averages, to set trailing stops. For instance, setting a trailing stop below a 20-day moving average.
• Dynamic Adjustment: The key to using trailing stops effectively is their dynamic adjustment. As the stock price moves up, the trailing stop moves up accordingly, always maintaining the predetermined distance from the peak price achieved.
Summary
In this tutorial, we have delved into the critical aspects of Mark Minervini's exit strategies, focusing on practical and effective methods to optimize trade exits. We explored the Stop-Loss Strategy, emphasizing the importance of limiting losses and managing risks with carefully placed stop-loss orders. The Profit Target Strategy highlighted the significance of setting realistic profit goals based on a thorough analysis of historical data and chart patterns, always considering the crucial risk-reward ratio. Lastly, the Trailing Stop Strategy showcased a dynamic approach to protecting gains while allowing room for potential upside in a stock's price.
By understanding and applying these strategies, traders can enhance their ability to make informed decisions, effectively manage risk, and potentially increase profitability. These exit strategies, integral to Minervini’s trading philosophy, offer a disciplined framework for closing positions, vital for success in the dynamic world of swing trading.
Learn What is TRAILING STOP LOSS | Risk Management Basics
In the today's article, we will discuss a trailing stop loss. I will explain to you its concept in simple words and share real market examples.
🛑 Trailing stop loss is a risk management tool that allows to protect unrealized profits of an active trading position as long as the price moves in the desired direction.
Traditionally, traders trade with fixed stop loss and take profit. Following such an approach, one knows exactly the level where the trade will be closed in a profit and the level where it will be closed in a loss.
Take a look at a long trade on USDCAD above.
The trade has fixed TP Level - 1.354 and fixed SL Level - 1.341.
Once one of these levels is reached, the trade will be closed.
Even though the majority of the traders stick to fixed sl and tp, there is one important disadvantage of such an approach – substantial gains could be easily missed.
After the market reached TP in USDCAD trade, the price temporarily dropped, then a strong bullish rally initiated and the price went way above the Take Profit level. Potential gains with that long position could be much bigger.
Trailing stop solves that issue.
With a trailing stop loss, the trader usually opens the trade with Stop Loss and WITHOUT Take Profit.
Take a look at a long trade on USDCHF.
Trader expects growth, he opens a long position and sets stop loss – 0.8924, while take profit level is not determined.
As the market starts growing, one decides not to close the trade in profit, but modify stop loss – trail it to the level above the entry.
As the market keeps rallying, one TRAILS a stop loss in the direction of the market, protecting the unrealized gains.
When the market finally starts falling, the price hits stop loss and a trader closes the trade in a substantial profit.
The main obstacle with the application of a trailing stop is to keep it at a distance from current price levels that is not too narrow nor too wide.
With a wide stop loss distance, substantial unrealized gains might be washed out with the market reversal.
Imagine you predicted a nice bullish rally on Bitcoin.
The market bounced nicely after you opened a long position .
Trailing stop loss too far from current price levels, all the gains could be easily wiped out.
While with a narrow trailing stop distance, one can be stop hunted before the move in the desired direction continues.
A trader opens a long trade on EURJPY and the price bounces perfectly as predicted.
One immediately trails the stop loss.
However, the distance between current prices was too narrow and the position was closed after a pullback.
And then market went much higher
In conclusion, I want to note that fixed SL & TP approach is not bad, it is different and for some trading strategies it will be more appropriate. However, because of its limitations, occasionally big moves will be missed.
Try trailing stop by your own, combine it with your strategy and I hope that you will make a lot of money with that!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Securing Trades: Moving Stop Losses to Breakeven Forex TradersProfitability is the ultimate goal for all traders in the forex market. However, evaluating profitability is not a straightforward task. While many traders rely on comparing the size of their losses to their profits, this single metric alone may not provide enough motivation or a comprehensive understanding of one's success. In fact, solely fixating on this indicator can sometimes trap us in psychological pitfalls.
When faced with a series of unsuccessful trades and accumulating losses, the desire to recoup those losses and attain profits can become overpowering. This intense longing often drives traders to take unnecessary risks and make impulsive trading decisions, driven solely by the emotional need to recover their losses. Unfortunately, succumbing to such emotional pressures typically leads to even greater losses, further intensifying the emotional turmoil associated with trading.
To mitigate the emotional tension and prevent impulsive decision-making, one effective strategy is to employ a technique known as moving the Stop Loss to breakeven. This technique involves adjusting the Stop Loss level to the trade's entry price once a certain profit threshold has been reached. By doing so, traders can secure their initial investment and eliminate the risk of incurring any further capital losses.
Moving the Stop Loss to breakeven serves multiple purposes. First and foremost, it reduces the emotional pressure that traders experience when managing their trades. By eliminating the possibility of incurring additional losses, traders can approach the market with a clearer and more objective mindset. This, in turn, helps to curb emotional biases and impulsive decision-making, which often lead to detrimental outcomes.
Furthermore, moving the Stop Loss to breakeven can provide a sense of psychological relief and instill greater confidence in one's trading strategy. Traders can take solace in the knowledge that even if the trade eventually turns against them, they will not suffer any financial loss. This fosters a more disciplined and strategic approach to trading, as the fear of losing capital is significantly reduced.
Implementing the practice of moving the Stop Loss to breakeven is ultimately a risk management technique aimed at safeguarding traders' capital and minimizing emotional stress. By adopting this strategy, traders can achieve a higher level of psychological stability and make more rational trading decisions. While it does not guarantee profitability on its own, it serves as an invaluable tool in maintaining a balanced and disciplined approach to navigating the forex market.
What Is Breakeven
To comprehend the concept of breakeven, let's delve into an illustrative example. Consider two scenarios where we analyze the market and identify an ascending channel. We wait for a test of the upper boundary and observe a bearish absorption reversal pattern, prompting us to sell EUR/USD with targets near the lower boundary of the channel.
In the first situation, our short position initially brings a profit of approximately 15-20 pips, and our profit expectations rise. However, instead of continuing in our favor, the price abruptly reverses and triggers the Stop Loss order. As a result, a position that had shown a small profit closes with a loss.
At the moment when the price reaches 15-20 pips, which accounts for more than half of the anticipated distance from the order opening point to the Take Profit level, we make a strategic move. We adjust the Stop Loss level below the opening price, effectively securing our position from further loss.
The subsequent price movement can unfold in two possible ways:
1) The price continues its descent and reaches the Take Profit level, resulting in a profitable outcome for our position.
2) The price reverses direction and triggers the Stop Loss order. However, since we had moved the Stop Loss to breakeven, the position is closed not at a loss but at a breakeven point, meaning we exit the trade without suffering any financial loss.
Based on the given example, we can define the concept of breakeven as follows:
Breakeven level refers to the adjustment of the Stop Loss order of an open trade to a profitable area. The objective of implementing this strategy is to exclude potential losses in the current trade, effectively safeguarding our capital. By moving the Stop Loss to breakeven, we ensure that even if the trade turns against us, we exit the position without incurring any financial loss.
The Psychology Of Breakeven On Forex
The success of traders is influenced by various factors, with trading strategies and money management accounting for 10% and 20% of the equation, respectively. However, a significant portion of success, 70% to be precise, stems from psychology and emotional balance. Therefore, trading is primarily a journey of self-improvement and self-discipline. In this context, breakeven can serve as a stabilizer or a source of calmness, and each trader must decide for themselves whether it aligns with their trading approach.
Traders who neglect moving their Stop Loss to breakeven often do so out of a desire to "beat" the market in a particular situation, disregarding risk management principles. They forget that each trade is merely an opportunity to generate profit and that a trader's success hinges on the cumulative outcome of all their actions.
By moving the Stop Loss to the breakeven level, traders ensure that their trading account is not exposed to unnecessary risk. This approach allows them to step back temporarily, preserving their capital, and return to trade another day.
Breakeven becomes especially valuable when a trade accumulates substantial floating profits. It acts as a safeguard, protecting capital and preventing the unfortunate scenario of a winning trade turning into a losing one.
However, it's crucial to note that utilizing the breakeven level requires proper understanding and application. Emotional traders may be tempted to move their Stop Loss to breakeven prematurely, resulting in a high number of breakeven trades. Therefore, it is essential to thoroughly study this tool and evaluate how it can be effectively integrated into your trading strategy.
In general, if your next trade concludes without a significant profit or loss, it may be wise to take a break and rest. Achieving a result close to breakeven or closing a trade at breakeven can be viewed as a positive outcome in the long run, contributing to overall trading success.
Why Do Traders Move Stop Loss To Breakeven?
There are several reasons why traders opt for a breakeven stop in their trading:
Psychological Comfort: Moving a trade to breakeven provides a sense of comfort and security. By eliminating the possibility of a loss, traders can view the trade as a risk-free profit. It reduces the emotional stress associated with potential losses and allows traders to stay in the trade with a peace of mind.
1) Expert Opinion: Many experts in the field of technical analysis advocate for protecting earned profits, and a breakeven stop is often recommended for this purpose. By locking in profits, traders can avoid the disappointment of seeing a profitable trade turn into a loss. This helps maintain discipline in following the trading plan and preserves the expected outcome of the strategy.
2) Greed and Fear: Some traders move their trades to breakeven as soon as they have a small profit, driven by greed and fear. They fear losing the profits they have already gained and hope to capture even more gains. However, this approach can backfire if the market retraces and stops the trade out at breakeven, only to continue moving in the desired direction. Fear and greed can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions. Building confidence in both the trading strategy and oneself is essential to overcome these emotions and stick to the trading plan.
3 )To build confidence in the strategy, traders should thoroughly test it on historical data for an extended period. If the strategy demonstrates consistent positive results over several months, the trader can have faith in its effectiveness. Building self-confidence requires a holistic approach, which may include activities like meditation, exercise, and self-reflection.
In conclusion, utilizing a breakeven stop can provide psychological comfort, align with expert advice on protecting profits, and help manage the emotions of greed and fear. However, it is essential to understand and apply this technique in the context of a well-tested and proven trading strategy, while also working on building self-confidence.
How Do I Correctly Set A Breakeven Level?
Moving the trade to breakeven is a decision that should be made with careful consideration. Rushing to set breakeven as soon as the price surpasses a certain number of points from the opening level can lead to premature trade closure and missed profit opportunities. It's crucial to set the breakeven level correctly and at the right time.
There are certain scenarios where moving the trade to breakeven is appropriate:
1) According to the rules of your trading system: The decision to move the trade to breakeven should be planned and integrated into your trading system. This ensures consistency in your approach and prevents impulsive decisions based on emotions.
2) When events deviate from your trading scenario: If the price doesn't unfold as expected, such as in cases of flat-lining or lack of momentum, moving the trade to breakeven can be considered. However, it's important to factor in the time element. If you entered a trade during a period of low market activity, such as between sessions, it's advisable to allow more time for the price to develop before making any adjustments.
3) Allowing for price volatility and maneuverability: It's not necessary to move the trade to breakeven immediately after it becomes profitable. Price movements can be erratic, and giving the trade some room to breathe and maneuver within a reasonable range can help avoid premature stop-outs.
The decision on when to move the Stop Loss to breakeven level is subjective and depends on various factors, such as the volatility of the currency pair, the timeframe being traded, and the trader's individual preferences. Traders often use technical tools like Fibonacci retracement, fractals, pivot levels, or other indicators to help determine appropriate breakeven levels.
Ultimately, finding the right balance between protecting profits and allowing for potential gains requires experience, practice, and continuous refinement of your trading approach.
Disadvantages Of Using Breakeven:
While applying breakeven can offer certain advantages, it's important to acknowledge the potential disadvantages as well:
1) Impact on mathematical expectation: Triggering breakevens too frequently can negatively impact the overall mathematical expectation of winning trades. Each time a breakeven is triggered, it reduces the potential profit and increases the breakeven rate, which can erode profitability over time. Traders need to carefully consider the balance between protecting profits and allowing trades to run for maximum potential gains.
2) Effect on trading statement: If a trader consistently closes positions at breakeven, it can impact the overall trading statement. This becomes significant when traders showcase their results to potential investors or when assessing their own performance. A high number of breakevens may give the impression that the trader is risk-averse or lacks confidence in their trades. It's important to strike a balance between breakevens and profitable trades to maintain a positive perception.
3) Comparison with initial stop loss: Statistically, breakevens are triggered more frequently than initial stop losses. Some traders choose to close a portion of their position at a profit level equal to the initial stop loss level. This approach allows them to secure some profit while letting the remaining portion of the trade run for potential further gains. By doing so, they aim to strike a balance between locking in profits and giving trades room to develop.
Ultimately, the decision to apply breakeven or its variations should be based on careful analysis of individual trading strategies, risk tolerance, and desired trade outcomes. Traders should consider both the advantages and disadvantages to make informed decisions that align with their overall trading goals.
Trailing Stop:
In addition to the standard breakeven closure, another option to consider is the trailing stop. This order type allows the stop loss to automatically trail the price at a certain distance as it moves in your favor. To set a trailing stop, you can right-click on the open position and specify the trailing stop size in points.
Here's how it works: Let's say you've bought the EUR/USD pair at 1.1000 and set a trailing stop of 50 points. As the price moves in your direction, reaching 1.1100 and giving you a profit of +100 pips, the trailing stop will also adjust accordingly. If the price retraces by 50 pips to 1.1050, your position will be closed with a profit of +50 pips. This type of order is particularly useful for medium-term trading or during large market movements when it's uncertain when the trend might end.
When used correctly, the trailing stop allows you to capture maximum profit from an open position. However, it's important not to set the trailing stop too tightly in volatile instruments to avoid premature closing of the position based on minor price fluctuations.
Trailing stops offer flexibility and the potential to lock in profits as the price moves in your favor. They can be a valuable tool for managing trades and protecting gains, especially in trending markets. Traders should consider their trading style, risk tolerance, and market conditions when deciding whether to use a trailing stop and how to set the appropriate distance to maximize potential profits.
Conclusion.
n summary, one of the primary goals for traders is to avoid incurring losses. The concept of breakeven is rooted in this principle, as it allows traders to protect their positions and prevent losses. By moving the stop loss to the breakeven level, traders ensure that even if the trade does not result in a profit, they will not experience a loss either.
However, it's important to recognize that breakeven can be a double-edged sword. While it protects traders from losses, it also carries the risk of giving up potential profits. This is because once the stop loss is moved to breakeven, the trade is essentially locked in at a break-even point, and any further upward movement in price will not be captured as profit.
Traders need to carefully consider the trade-off between protecting against losses and potentially sacrificing profits when deciding whether to apply breakeven. It ultimately comes down to individual trading strategies, risk tolerance, and market conditions.
It's crucial to find the right balance and use breakeven judiciously. Traders should assess the specific circumstances of each trade and make informed decisions based on their analysis and risk management plan. By doing so, traders can navigate the complexities of breakeven and strike a balance between safeguarding their profits and maximizing their trading outcomes.
📈 The Trailing Stop Loss📍 What Is a Trailing Stop?
A trailing stop is a modification of a typical stop order that can be set at a defined percentage or dollar amount away from a security's current market price. For a long position, an investor places a trailing stop loss below the current market price. For a short position, an investor places the trailing stop above the current market price.
A trailing stop is designed to protect gains by enabling a trade to remain open and continue to profit as long as the price is moving in the investor’s favor. The order closes the trade if the price changes direction by a specified percentage or dollar amount.
📍Important Takeaways
🔹 A trailing stop is an order type designed to lock in profits or limit losses as a trade moves favorably.
🔹 Trailing stops only move if the price moves favorably. Once it moves to lock in a profit or reduce a loss, it does not move back in the other direction.
🔹 A trailing stop is a stop order and has the additional option of being a limit order or a market order.
🔹 One of the most important considerations for a trailing stop order is whether it will be a percentage or fixed-dollar amount and by how much it will trail the price.
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📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
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Strategy Coding E01: Adding a custom Trailing-StopIn my experience there are phases to creating a strategy. In this episode we will cover one of the most important steps: establishing an exit strategy. Exiting a position is crucial to risk management. If your entries are terrible but you have a good exit strategy, you might get by and not lose a lot of your capital. And vice-versa, if your entries are great, but your exit strategy is terrible, you my not make any profit.
Concepts we will cover in this episode:
Integrating an indicator value as a trailing stop.
Lowering the trailing stop sensitivity by using the Average True Range (ATR).
Customizing the ATR value.
Brief introduction to 'modules'.
ow to Apply Trailing Stop | PRICE ACTION TRADING 📚
Hey traders,
In this post, I will share with you my strategy to apply a trailing stop.
Please, note that I am applying a trailing stop only in trend-following trades and only when a trade is opened on a key level. I trade price action patterns, so the following technique will be appropriate primarily for price action traders. Moreover, my entries are strictly on a retest.
1️⃣
Spotting a price action pattern I am always waiting for its neckline breakout. (if we talk about different channels, then by a neckline we mean its trend line)
Once I see a candle close below/above the neckline, I set my sell/buy limit order on a retest.
Stop loss will strictly lie below the lows of the pattern if we buy and above the highs of the pattern if we sell.
2️⃣
Once we are in a trade, you should measure the pattern's range (distance from its high to its low based on wicks) and then project that range from the entry to the direction of the trade.
In the picture, the pattern range and its projection are the underlined blue areas.
Once the price reaches the projection of the pattern's range, you should move your stop loss to entry and make your position risk-free.
Move stop to breakeven in traders' slang.
3️⃣
Then you should let the market go.
📈If you are holding a long position you should let the market retrace and set a higher low and then a new higher high or AT LEAST an equal high. Once these conditions are met you can trail your stop and set it below the last higher low.
📉If you are holding a short position you should let the market retrace and set a lower high and then a new lower low or AT LEAST an equal low. Once these conditions are met you can trail your stop and set it above the last lower high.
Catching a trending market you should trail your stop based on new higher lows / lower highs that the price sets. Occasionally you will catch big winners.
How do you apply a trailing stop?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TRAILING STOPWhat is trailing stop?
A trailing stop is a modification of a typical stop order that can be set to a specific percentage or dollar amount of the current market price.
A trailing stop is designed to protect profits by allowing the trade to remain open and continue to make a profit as long as the price moves in the investor's favor. The order closes the trade if the price changes direction by the specified percentage or dollar amount.
Understanding the trailing stop
Trailing stops only move in one direction because they are designed to lock in profits or limit losses. If a trailing stop loss of 10% is added to a long position, a sell trade will be placed if the price drops 10% from its post-buy peak price. The trailing stop moves up only after a new high has been established. Once a trailing stop has moved up, it cannot go back down.
A trailing stop is more flexible than a fixed stop loss because it automatically tracks the direction of a stock's price and does not require manual reset like a fixed stop loss.
Trailing Stop Trading
The key to successfully using a trailing stop is to set it at a level that is neither too narrow nor too wide. Setting a trailing stop loss that is too tight can mean that the trailing stop is triggered by normal daily market movement, and thus there is no room for the trade to move in the trader's direction. A stop loss that is too short will usually result in a losing trade, albeit a small one. A trailing stop that is too large does not work in normal market movements, but it means that the trader is taking on the risk of unnecessarily large losses or forgoing more profit than he needs.
Although trailing stops lock in profits and limit losses, setting the ideal trailing stop distance is difficult. There is no perfect distance because markets and the way stocks move are constantly changing. Despite this, trailing stops are effective tools and, like every other method, there are pros and cons here.
Real world example
Let's say you bought Alphabet Inc. (historically pulls back 5-8% before moving up again). These previous moves can help set the percentage level that will be used for the trailing stop.
Choosing 3% or even 5% can be too difficult. Even minor retracements tend to move more, meaning the trade is likely to be stopped out by a trailing stop before the price can move higher.
Choosing a trailing stop of 20% is overkill. Based on recent trends, the average pullback is around 6%, with larger ones around 8%.
A trailing stop loss of 10% to 12% is better. This gives the trading space room to move, but also quickly takes the trader out if the price drops more than 12%. A 10% to 12% drop is larger than a typical retracement, which means something more significant could be happening – basically, it could be a trend reversal, not just a pullback.
Using a trailing stop of 10%, your broker will execute a sell order if the price drops 10% below your buy price. It's 900 dollars. If the price never rises above $1,000 after buying, your stop loss will remain at $900. If the price hits $1,010, your stop loss will move to $909, 10% below $1,010. If the share price rises to $1,250, your broker will execute a sell order if the price drops to $1,125. If the price starts to fall from $1250 and doesn't come back up, your trailing stop order remains at $1125 and if the price drops to that price the broker will place a sell order on your behalf.
The ideal trailing stop loss will change over time. In more volatile periods, it is better to use a wider trailing stop. During quieter times or when the stock is very stable, a tighter trailing stop loss may be effective. However, once a trailing stop loss is set for an individual trade, it should be left as is. A common trading mistake is to increase the risk of a trade one time to avoid losses. This is called loss aversion and can quickly take a trading account down.
Results
Trailing stop is a very useful tool if you know how to use it.
The tool can help you keep your profits on days when you can't follow the price and move the normal stop yourself.
Adding such a useful tool will help improve your strategy and increase your profits.
But do not forget about the correct setting of the trailing stop, the values of which will be different for each instrument.
To more accurately determine the values for the trailing stop, it is worth knowing the average daily movement of the instrument, as in the example above.
Good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
How to detect a trend and trail an uptrend? How do I detect an uptrend?
In the chart BNB/USDT I am using the Supertrend Ninja indicator, which is a trend-following indicator (Green and red vertical line with arrows).
When the background of the candlestick closes green with an upwards pointing pink arrow. It indicates a possible bullish (up)trend.
The Supertrend Ninja indicator gave only 6 bullish signals for the 2 day chart in 2021. And 2 bullish signal in 2020. Which in my opinion makes each bullish signal very reliable.
It warned about the March 2020 and May 2021 (possible) corrections (big purple down arrows). And also the big uptrend of Dec 2020 (big blue up arrow).
How do I trail an uptrend?
With each trade I make, proper risk management is essential. Either by using the Trailing Stoploss Bottom Activation indicator, visible as orange dots below the candles. Which sends an alert, when current price goes below the previous candle low. Or using the Heikin Ashi Trailing Stoploss Activation, the indicator below with green and red blocks. Remember, the first stop(loss) is always the cheapest stop. Using one of these, or both offers me the possibility to ride bigger parts of the trend. Whichever triggers an alert first.
(For completeness, the grey blocks are supports and resistances)
Thank you for reading.
Namasté
Disclaimer: Ideas are for entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trades.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Education: Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)ICEUS:KC1!
I learned a handy tool used to manage risk under certain circumstances - the Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)
In this example, I actually fade the 3DTSR, but being able to execute different styles of trading strategies reflects an understanding of them, while acknowledging that no system or strategy used in markets will be perfect.
Three Day Trailing Stop Rule:
There is one initial criteria for the 3DTSR to become active -
Either
Upon Pattern Breakout - to limit initial risk/add to position at lower relative risk
OR
Upon Reaching 70% of Target from Breakout as a Trailing Stop
In an Uptrend, to exit a position using the 3DTSR
Day 1 is the High Day, defined by a new price high - at this point, we are not aware of the setup
Day 2 is the Setup Day, defined by a closing price (end of day) that is below the low of Day 1 - at this point, the trigger is active
Day 3 is the Trigger Day, as the stop is placed below the low of Day 2
The 3DTSR can also be used as an entry strategy, as shown in the chart here.
Day 1 = High Day
Day 2 = Setup Day, where price closed below the low of Day 1
Instead of placing a stop below the low of day 2, here I fade the 3DTSR by ADDING to a long coffee position, and jamming the stop to below the low of Day 2
Day 3 = The low of Day 2, or the trigger, is never penetrated, and price opens a cent higher
If using the Trigger as a stop, or below the low of Day 2, and using the Triangle shown to imply a measured target, this is a whopping 20 to 1 trade setup.
Do you have any profitable trading systems or strategies?
How To: Trade the Trend with Trailing Stop Losses.Quanta provides infrastructure solutions to the electric power, oil and gas, and communication industries and has been consistently making higher highs since its March lows last year as part of the Covid reset and has been trending beautifully with relatively little volatility.
The whole idea of trend trading is to try and find a trending stock like this one and stay in the trend as long as possible until that dreaded bend in the end where a stock will often sell off.
One of the ways to do this is with a trailing stop loss .
A trailing stop is a great conditional order type as your stop loss will continue to move up and maintain a set distance from the stocks highs as the stock price moves up, but it will never move down if the price moves down. So while the stock is going up, you will stay in the trade, but if there is a significant dip it will automatically exit you out. A good set and forget type strategy that works well if you aren't actively monitoring the market and want to protect your profits.
In this case Quanta is up 200% over the last 12 months, and up over 300% since the March lows. If you had wanted to keep it since the March lows you would have needed a stop loss of around 25%, but you can see that more recently now that some of the market uncertainty has reduced a 13% trail would keep you in the stock.
It's good to see that the stock is also respecting its 20 day moving average and using it largely as support as it trends upwards and these are often an easy way to keep an eye on whether the stock keeps moving up or whether there might be a down turn ahead.
Quanta has just had earnings and still looks pretty strong. Will be interesting to see how long it will run for.
Worth a watch.
A 25% stop loss would have kept you in the trade longer, but has much more downside before it would exit you out of the trade.
TA Won't Save You, Automation WillI'm sharing my TA here mostly for learning purposes. I'm learning hard lessons with my own money.
Yesterday i perfectly timed the last bounce within the bearish flag. Price went up as i predicted, however u-turned back down and hit so hard and so fast while i was asleep.
Luckily, i've set a stop loss on the hourly close of the bottom of triangle at 53308.92. This meant my perfectly timed previous trade went busted and i had to swallow the loss.
But, look at the price level now at $48.400. Had i not swalled that little loss, i could have been rekt now! Who could imagine this huge drop in just a matter of hours, slashing $50.996.15 in a snap.
I might have not set a stop loss yesterday and got caught in this huge drop. Luckily i did. But more importantly i'm also using a trailing stop loss indicator, which calculates the stop loss continuously. If optimized correctly it will save you big time.
Look at this one hour chart. The sell signal triggered one day before the so called blackout. Someone was selling before the drop and indicator did not miss it.
This indicator is Twin Optimized Tracker by Anıl Özekşi and published by Kivanc Ozbilgic on TradingView.
My TA saved me from this drop and the one before. But OTT would have saved me even earlier with prace of mind. Now i'm just waiting for OTT to put me back in the game.
And one more thing,
I have connected this indicator to my 3commas DCA bot. It will put me back in the game even when i'm sleeping. I don't need to do more TA work in order to figure out where the next dip is.
I'll enjoy my brunch now!
SuperTrail Indicator Video / Trailing Stop LossWas just playing around with the replay function in Trading View and thought I'd share this to show how the SuperTrail indicator worked on a couple of different stocks.
The SuperTrail is basically a modified SuperTrend but instead uses a percentage to allow you to manually set the trail level for individual stocks. Some need a wider trail, some a smaller one. You might set a trail based on the last months range, or the last 3 months. Totally up to you and the stock itself. The idea is to find what I call the natural range of a stock based on its past behaviour and hope that the stock maintains this range into the future. You can of course simply adjust it from time to time as the stock and the market goes through different behaviours (eg bull or bear), reacting to good or bad company news etc.
I use the percentage value that I come up with to set as my stop loss / trailing stop with my broker. This way if the stock drops below the trail value (which automatically moves up as the stock price moves up, but never down if the stock goes down), the stock will automatically sell and I will hopefully bank any profits. Works best of course with trending stocks. You could use the buy signal to go long and the sell signal to short. Main thing for me is I don't have to sit and watch the market and worry how my shares are going. If one is starting to go the wrong way, I automatically get out. Completely up to you how you use it. It is a very simple system :)
If you want to see more examples, just have a look at my profile, and if you would like access to the script, just message me and I'll send you the details.
Trailing Stop or Trailing Take ProfitCase scenario: Short Position based on a moving average crossing
Stop Loss 0.50%
Take Profit 0.50%
Trailing Stop 0.41%
Trailing Take Profit 0.41%
Using a Trailing Take Profit of 0.41% that gets activated at the Take Profit level of 0.50% results in locking in the profit with minimal risk of closing the position too soon.
A Trailing Stop used with the same 0.41% trailing distance results in a high risk of closing a potentially profitable position too soon.
In this example, the position was almost closed at a loss by the 0.41% Trailing Stop .
Both TS and TTP are good tools to close a position. Using a Trailing Stop with a higher trailing distance, as well as a Trailing Take Profit , should improve our odds of getting that profit.
How to connect your indicator with the Trade ManagerHi everyone
On Today's tutorial, I wanted to highlight how you can upgrade your own indicator to work with the Trade Manager
Let's take the dummy example of the double MM cross
Step 1 - Update your indicator
Somewhere in the code you'll have a LONG and a SHORT condition. If not, please go back to study trading for noobs (I'm kidding !!!)
So it should look to something similar
macrossover = crossover(MA1, MA2)
macrossunder = crossunder(MA1, MA2)
What you will need to add at the very end of your script is a Signal plot that will be captured by the Trade Manager. This will give us :
// Signal plot to be used as external
// if crossover, sends 1, otherwise sends -1
Signal = macrossover ? 1 : macrossunder ? -1 : na
plot(Signal, title="Signal")
The Trade Manager engines expects to receive 1 for a bullishg signal and -1 for bearish .
Step 2 - Add the Trade Manager to your chart and select the right Data Source
I feel the questions coming so I prefer to anticipate :) When you add the Trade Manager to your chart, nothing will be displayed. THIS IS NORMAL because you'll have to select the Data Source to be "Signal"
Remember our Signal variable from the Two MM Cross from before, now we'll capture it and.....drumb rolll...... that's from that moment that your life became even more AWESOME
The Engine will capture the last signal from the MM cross or any indicator actually and will update the Stop Loss, Take Profit levels based on the parameters you set on the Trade Manager
I worked the whole weekend on it because I wanted to challenge myself and give you something that I will certainly use in my own trading
Please send me some feedback or questions if any
Enjoy
Dave
Intermediate Trading Strategy - Part 3In the previous post we discussed risk:reward, profit taking and trailing stop losses. If you have not read part 1 and part 2 then you are highly recommended to start there.
Taking Profit
Always taking partial profits, never making decisions for the full position. This is true when entering and this is true when exiting. It minimizes anxiety and emotional decision making.
In Trending Markets: Stop loss is trailed once new highs/lows are established. If long then move it up to be slightly under the recent low and if short move it slightly above the most recent high. This can generally be illustrated with Bill Williams Fractals on the weekly and daily charts. Full profit can be taken on the third test of a trendline.
In Parabolic Markets: I like to gamble on house money, it makes me feel much more comfortable about the draw downs. Here is an example for how to take profits in a parabolic market: If +100% then take 10%-20% off the table. If +100% again then take another 15%-25% off the table. Keep doing this as long as price is making all time highs.
Take full profit if phase 4 or phase 3 of hyperwave is violated
If weekly and daily RSI (with 30 setting) are > 80 then take full profit. If Welles Wilder’s ADX is > 50 on the weekly and/or > 60 on the daily then time to take full profit.
For Bitcoin' watch for NVT to reach overbought zones and consider how this metric will be affected by Lightning Network and batching transactions.
If Trading a Pattern: A chart pattern will indicate a profit target. If your reason for entering the trade was the chart pattern then do not get greedy with the profit target! Relying on a trailing stop will often cause a trader to miss out on a large part of the profit when trading a pattern.
Be very specific about what you are investing in long term/hodling and what you are using to trade.
If investing/hodling then put into cold storage and don’t do anything for a minimum of 10 years.
In the final post we will delve into the best indicators and provide guidelines for when they are most effective.
Are You Cutting Your Winners Short by Trying to be Right?Good trading is a curious mix between taking profits when the market makes them available, and letting profits run to capture big wins.
The problem is that, more often than not, this decision is dictated by emotion rather than reason.
Instead of trusting the statistics behind our edge, we focus on trying to be right on our current position.
Trading is a statistical game
Top traders know their probabilities. They recognise that no matter the quality of their analysis, once they have entered their position, it may or may not go for them.
If they start to second-guess which ones will go and which won’t, then chances are they will cut themselves out of some winners and degrade their system in the process.
Understand the move you are looking to capture
One of the first things to do when developing a system is to get very clear on the moves you are looking to capture.
Once you have identified the types of opportunities you are looking for, you can create a “rule-based” plan to capture those moves with the best risk/reward possible.
You should garner an understanding of how often the moves occur, how long they typically last, and how big the pullbacks can get.
How the need to be “right” manifests itself when exiting
There are three main ways that trying to be right interferes with our exits. This can happen both in the system development phase, and when trading live.
We take profit without a clear exit signal. Be cautious not to take profit just because the market has gone your way. Wait for your pre-determined exit signals, or wait for your objective to be hit.
We trail our stop-loss too tightly. Currency moves can require wide stops, so give the trade room to breathe. It’s no fun being whipsawed out of a trend because of your fear that it might end. Wait for the trade to be well in your favour before trailing your stop.
Moving the stop to breakeven. A breakeven stop can be a good thing. However, if you find you are getting stopped out of winning trades because you have quickly moved your stop to breakeven, then perhaps it is not serving the best purpose.
I’m sure there are several other ways this bias appears in our trading, so remain self-aware.
Journal your interference
Perhaps you are a guru with the skill to know exactly when to get out of your positions.
How to tell?
Make sure you mark in your journal any discretionary exit decisions you make. That way, you can track how well they compare to a “rules-based” approach.
Alternatively, you can allow yourself a small percentage of the position to add and remove at will. By increasing our options this way, we feel good about being right, while still letting our profits run on the majority of the trade.
Good Luck!