ALKS -TA tells you everything! How to spot the next breakoutHistory doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. And in the stock market, more specifically with technical analysis, we are able to understand why price moved the way it did in the past and, if it's doing something similar again, what to expect.
So here, we see repeated controlled selling channels (magenta) being used to build liquidity for buyers. We also have stronger selling channel within (teal) that acts as our safeguard from retesting the more tapered magenta selling channel.
When we see price staying within our controlled magenta channel, it typically goes something like this:
1. Price makes a breakout of controlled selling
2. Price hits resistance (usually at the top of a more tapered HTF buying algorithm (green)) and a new magenta channel is created using this point of resistance
2. Teal strong selling algorithm is activated and brings price down to a level of support (usually at the bottom of that same tapered buying channel that caused resistance)
3. Price uses our strong buying continuation algorithm (yellow) to bounce off support, break out of teal (our first indication of a retest of top of magenta as teal is no longer in control) and takes us back to the top of magenta channel (resistance)
This pattern will repeat itself - UNTIL:
4. Having sold off in a controlled manner from top of green tapered buying (resistance), price now reaches the bottom of green tapered buying (support) and uses our yellow strong buying continuation channel to retest the top of magenta
This is where the breakout happens:
5. With increased volume in this most recent yellow buying continuation channel, we retest the top of magenta, and again it acts as resistance - HOWEVER - instead of now going back to retest the bottom of magenta like usual, we instead are picked up by the bottom of our yellow buying channel. This means buyers are not only in control but are prepared to break out of our controlled magenta selling channel.
AND.... Blast off.
This is the theory of almost all of my trading - using ALKS and it's algorithm colors as an example - but if you can understand this and start to see it in your own charts, you are in for a fun (more predictable) ride!
As always please feel free to respond in the comments with any questions or send me a personal message with thoughts, questions, love, etc.
And please like this post (if you liked it) in order for it to reach and help others who could utilize this knowledge to upgrade their trading!
And perhaps most importantly,
Happy Trading :)
Volume
Price Action & Volume - A trick that will help you TODAY!People underestimate volume and what it could tell you about buyers and sellers in the market. This "strategy" or more accurately this way of understanding Volume can be utilized in any time frame and will open you up to understanding more movements and why things happen in "random" areas - when they are truly not random.
Hope this helps and as always,
Happy Trading!
How to identify high quality Supply and Demand zonesSupply and demand zones are powerful tools to find high probability trades. If they are used in the correct context they offer a high win rate and a very controled risk. These are some of the characteristics that high quality zones have:
•When a good zone is being created in real time you will watch that price pushes down/up with aggressive price action and follow through after the basing candle. Heavy volume on the development and candle closing at its highs are also good indicators.
•A high quality supply/demand zone is the one that creates new lows/highs. That means that it was able to push below/above the prior low/high.
•In short time frames, shorter than 1 hour, you would probably find good supply and demand zones to have a continuation of the trend. For example, if a Future is in an uptrend pay attention to the demands that are created in that trend and then when price pulls back to it look at the price action in the zone. Have in mind that in uptrends, demand zones are reliable and supply zones have a much lower probability of working. The opposite scenario happens in downtrends were supply zones are higher probability and demand zones should be avoided.
•In higher time frames, a very strong supply or demand zone could be an area for a change of structure (from an uptrend to a downtrend for example).
•A good indicator of a reliable supply/demand zone is when price pulls back to it and the candle has a strong rejection as it touches the zone, meaning an upper/lower wick is created below/above the zone. volume is developing with no follow through (orders hitting strong ask/bid in the tape) and the candle does not close inside the zone.
•Speed heading into the zone is also relevant, a high speed drop heading in to a demand zone is a good area to trap late sellers.
•If for example FX:EURUSD has a demand zone and TVC:DXY has a supply zone or a resistance level and both are having retracements from their trend, that could be a good opportunity to go long and also if price action gives an extra confirmation. This means that confluence is key for a high probability trade when using supply and demand zones.
• Use the concept of relative strength/weakness when using confluence with other charts.
Example: A 2 hour demand zone in Brent Futures $NYMEX:BZ1!. Notice how the red candle that reaches the zone is a strong one with higher volume and is not able to close inside the zone, It prints a lower wick and closes above it giving the demand zone a good price action confirmation.
[Price Action#1] What is the Breakout and Breakdown?What is the Breakout?
Breakout is a price moving outside a defined resistance level with increased buying volume. The breakout traders enter the long positions after the price breaks the resistance level.
What is the Breakdown?
Breakdown is a price moving outside a defined support level with increased selling volume. The breakdown traders enter the short positions after the price breaks the support level.
Chainlink Educational Post - Finding Support And ResistanceMany of you have been asking me how I timed my NASDAQ:LINK trade so well. Purchasing at $7.63 on October 20th and now seeing it up to $16.20, I will say it was slightly lucky, but it was not random.
In this video I go over a few of my basic strategies for getting major price points out of an asset in less than 15 minutes.
Follow for more trading content. Exclusive videos will be released weekly.
Sorry about the AUDIO quality - Dont have a mic with me right now.
- Joshua
Helios Capital Investment
Unlocking Trend Reversals: Mastering Bollinger Bands and VWAPsIn this comprehensive video tutorial, we will delve into the powerful techniques of utilizing Bollinger Bands and VWAPs (Volume Weighted Average Prices) to identify and master trend reversals in the futures market. ES1!
You will learn how to leverage these volatility-based indicators to detect potential turning points in price trends. By understanding Bollinger Bands' ability to highlight periods of market consolidation and expansion, you will gain an edge in predicting trend shifts and take advantage of profitable opportunities.
Additionally, we will explore the significance of VWAPs, an essential tool for analyzing price and volume dynamics. By combining volume-weighted prices with Bollinger Bands, you will be equipped with a comprehensive approach to assess market liquidity, support, and resistance levels.
Throughout this tutorial, I provide step-by-step guidance to effectively interpret the signals generated by Bollinger Bands and VWAPs, empowering you to make informed trading decisions. We will also address common misconceptions that can often lead to misinterpretations and false signals.
Whether you are a seasoned trader seeking to refine your strategy or a beginner eager to grasp these technical indicators, this video is designed to provide valuable insights and practical knowledge that can elevate your trading outcomes.
AI-Assisted Channel Patterns: Visuals for Precision TradingTypes of Channel Pattern
In this educational post, we won't take a trading position, but rather equip you with valuable insights. Today, we delve into the world of channel chart patterns. Channels come in two primary forms: bullish and bearish. Understanding these patterns is essential. A bullish channel appears as a descending pattern, resembling a falling rectangle, while a bearish channel manifests as an ascending pattern within rising rectangles.
Technicals of Channel Patterns
But why are these channels so important? Bullish channels often precede a shift from a bearish trend to a bullish one, signaling a shift from a pessimistic to an optimistic market outlook. Conversely, bearish channels frequently herald a move from a bullish trend to a bearish one, indicating a transition from an optimistic to a pessimistic market sentiment.
Application of Channel Patterns
Channels serve various purposes, from brokers illustrating their expectations to traders preparing for upcoming trends. They also offer an excellent opportunity for automation, as modern AI systems can detect channels with remarkable precision, often exceeding 70%.
Our Notes to Channel Patterns
However, it's worth noting that channel patterns are seldom used in isolation. To make the most of them, traders often combine AI-assisted channel detection systems with volume analysis. When analyzing BTC-USD markets across nine exchanges and over five years, we found that volume frequently aligns with precisely defined channel patterns.
By incorporating volume as a technical indicator and leveraging AI-generated channels, you can enhance your trading strategies and increase your chances of success in the cryptocurrency markets. Best of luck in your trading endeavors!
Best regards,
ELI
How to find Darvas Stocks using TradingView's Stock Screener 2.0🔷 Introduction
Nicolas Darvas, a dancer by profession and a self-taught trader, managed to turn a mere $36,000 into a whopping $2 million within an 18-month timeframe during the late 1950s. His approach to trading, now famously known as the Darvas Box Theory, primarily focused on trading stocks that were making new highs. But why was Darvas so fixated on these particular stocks?
Darvas believed that stocks hitting new highs were driven by fundamental factors that had caught the attention of many investors, thereby driving up demand. He was particularly interested in stocks that were not only hitting new highs but were also accompanied by significantly higher-than-average trading volumes, indicating strong investor interest and buying pressure. These stocks, often referred to as "Darvas Stocks," typically exhibit a strong upward momentum and are characterized by their ability to remain resilient, even in a sideways or bearish market.
In this guide, we will explore how to utilize TradingView's Stock Screener 2.0 to identify potential Darvas Stocks by filtering for stocks that are near their all-time or 52-week highs and are trading on above-average volumes.
🔷 Step 1: Open Stock Screener 2.0
First, navigate to the Stock Screener 2.0 by clicking here: www.tradingview.com
Your screener should look like this:
Note: TradingView also has a Stock Screener 1.0. (available at www.tradingview.com). Do not use version 1.0, as it does not have the necessary filters we are going to use in our quest for Darvas Stocks.
🔷 Step 2: Set Up the Price Filter
To identify stocks that are near their all-time or 52-week highs, we'll set up a custom Price filter.
To create a custom Price filter, click on the Price filter button and select "Custom". If you can't see the Price button in the top toolbar, click on the + icon and search for Price.
In the Price filter creation dialog, in the first drop-down, select "Below %".
In the second drop-down, select a percentage (e.g. 0-5%). This is how much the price will have to be below the all-time/52-week high in order to qualify as a Darvas Stock.
In the third drop-down, select "New high".
And finally, in the fourth drop-down, select either "52W" or "All Time", depending on the timeframe you wish to use.
When fully configured, your custom price filter should look like this:
Once you click on the button with the tick, your filter should be applied.
Next, let's set up the Volume filter to only show those stocks that trade above average volume.
🔷 Step 3: Configure the Volume Filter
Darvas placed a significant emphasis on volume as it indicated the strength behind the price movement.
To create a custom Volume filter, click on the + icon and search for Volume.
You have multiple options here. You can either compare the daily/weekly volume against weekly/monthly volume or compare volume averages.
If you would like to compare the stock's Volume, select "Volume" from the results. If, instead, you would like to compare volume averages, choose "Average Volume".
In the example below, we will show you how to set up the volume filter so that it only shows those stocks which have their 10-day average volume trading 50% or more above their 30-day average volume.
To compare volume averages, create a custom "Average Volume" filter.
In the Average Volume filter creation dialog, in the first drop-down, select 10D.
In the second drop-down, select "Above %"
In the third drop-down, select "50% or more".
In the fourth drop-down, select "Average Volume".
And finally, in the fifth drop-down, select 30D.
When fully configured, your custom average volume filter should look like this:
Once you click on the button with the tick, your filter should be applied.
🔷 Step 4: Additional Filters (Optional)
You may also want to apply additional filters based on your trading preferences, such as:
Market Capitalization: Filter stocks based on their market cap to focus on companies of a particular size.
Sector/Industry: If you want to focus on specific sectors or industries, apply the relevant filters.
🔷 Step 5: Analyze the Results
Once you have your list of potential Darvas Stocks:
Examine the Charts: Look for stocks that are forming a Darvas Box, indicating a consolidation period followed by a breakout.
Fundamental Analysis: Although Darvas primarily used technical analysis, ensuring the company has solid fundamentals can provide additional confirmation.
🔷 Step 6: Continuous Monitoring
Maintaining a watchful eye on the stocks that align with your criteria can offer valuable insights into market behaviour and the practical application of the Darvas Box Theory. It's essential to observe how these stocks perform, particularly how they behave around their respective boxes, and to use this as a learning opportunity to understand the nuances and potential challenges of implementing this strategy in real-time trading scenarios.
🔷 Conclusion
Utilizing TradingView's Stock Screener 2.0 to identify potential Darvas Stocks provides a structured and efficient method to explore and understand the principles that Nicolas Darvas applied to his own trading journey. Observing stocks that are making new highs on above-average volumes allows you to delve deeper into the Darvas Box Theory and appreciate its practical applications and limitations. Remember, the objective is to learn and understand the strategy, not to provide a foolproof trading system. Always approach trading with caution, and consider utilizing a demo account to practice without risking actual capital.
NQ - Volume Profile on Day Chart
Using a composite volume profile and setting the bars to significant lows in the last couple of years, you can see that the VPOCs (Volume Point of Control) are almost perfect.
By using a hollow Composite Volume Profile in conjunction with a Solid Volume Profile, you can spot-check where low and high volume nodes are on different time-scale profiles.
What does all of this mean? Basically, my thesis regarding volume profile, which is shared by some, is that liquidity will be attracted to the low volume profile nodes. Liquidity will find a presence in these depressions, causing prices to gravitate to the local area, filling in the node to build a shelf. This allows for a stronger base or foundation to continue its positive drift upward. However, caution is necessary, as this strategy can work against bulls if the price gets trapped under a substantial shelf, making it harder to climb upward.
Composite Volume Profile indicator below
Are Indicator Templates The Best Kept Secret on Tradingview?Hey Rich Friends,
One of the greatest features that I have ever stumbled upon on Tradingview was the "Indicator Templates." If you are new to trading and need a simple strategy you can build upon, why not try one that is already built into your chart?
In this quick video, I will explain:
1. How to access Indicator Templates
2. 3 simple trading strategies (Bill Williams' 3 Lines, MA Exp Ribbon, and Displaced EMA)
3. Saving your own strategy
4. Trigger Words:
BUY (up, above, higher, over, positive)
SELL (down, below, lower, under, negative)
- Peace and Profits, Cha
When To Trade?: With High volume & liquidityThe 1st eight hours of a brand new session has three negatives you should be aware of, which are high spreads, low volume and low liquidity. Same with last four hours of a session, after London session closes and New York is only session open- low liquidity and low volume.
These above 12 hours everyday are times- you should not be trading.
Forex trading is easier to do if you are scalping and/or day trading with high liquidity and volume (both give you momentum) for your trades to hit your target(s)- if you have right risk control, pair, price, session and timing. Always, make a plan and trade plan.
The 12 hours noted on chart has the basic volume indicator at bottom (that is all you need to be aware of in Forex trading- related to volume)- are from the 9th- 1hr candle to the end of 21st- 1hr candle (end of London session)- is when you should be looking for set ups to trade. Specially, if you scalp or day trade everyday.
Volume price Volume price is my term meaning the average price for a certain traded volume in a certain period of time.
As an example, I took the BTCUSD chart
To find out at what level the largest volume is traded, there is a tool called "Fixed Volume Profile" FRVP (located on the sidebar, in the Tools for Measurement and Forecasting cell).
Here I stretched it for the period from November 14, 2020 to August 03, 2023 POC the orange line in my case (it's so convenient for me) shows the same maximum volume, and if you put a horizontal line with a price display in its place, we will see the price of 16752.88 - this is the price of volume.
That is, the largest volume was traded at this price.
A fixed volume profile can be applied on any segments of the chart, for example, from high to low, or from low to low, or from high to high, or in the sideways.
What does this give us?
Firstly, we understand at what price large capital gained or gave away its position.
Secondly, it forms the most powerful level for a certain time period (time frame).
And finally, the volume has a price.
How to work with liquidity grab?Hello everyone👋 Today we will discuss how to effectively work with areas of increased liquidity. Actually, it would be appropriate to make this post after we have examined how order flow is formed in the market in order to understand the technical aspect of working with liquidity. Therefore, first, we will provide some introductory information using a long position as an example.
When a trader buys an asset, they usually set a stop loss at a certain level or, if they don't use protective orders, their position will have a liquidation price depending on the chosen leverage. Based on this, when a specific price level is reached (stop loss or liquidation), their asset will be sold with a market order that will match the nearest limit order. Hence the conclusion: any exit from a losing position, as described above, is someone else's entry into a position with a limit order, often at a favorable price. This is how the positions of all major market participants are accumulated.
So, we simply need to estimate where the maximum number of active stop losses is located and make a trading decision based on that.
Most often, stop orders are located in the following zones:
1️⃣Obvious levels with equal highs/lows.
2️⃣Above/below any high/low in an obvious trend.
After identifying such zones using our indicator or independently, you can take trades in the direction of liquidity grab (counter-trend trades with high potential but also high risk) or wait for actual liquidity grab and confirmation to enter a trend trade.
In the next post, we will explore the technical aspect of liquidity grab for a deeper understanding of the topic.
We look forward to your questions. Happy trading!
How to Use Volumes to Improve Your TradingVolume is one of the most basic indicators that traders encounter. While it’s regularly overlooked in favour of more sophisticated indicators, volume analysis is a powerful tool that can help traders gauge trends, spot reversals and confirm breakouts. In this article, we’ll discuss the basics of trading volume, how to interpret it, and show you some popular volume-based indicators.
What Are Trading Volume Indicators in Technical Analysis?
Trading volume refers to the total number of units traded for a particular asset over a specified period. For forex pairs, volume is expressed in lots; for stocks, it measures the number of shares changing hands; and in Contract for Difference (CFD) markets, it’s the number of contracts being traded.
Volume is a crucial piece of information for traders, as it helps them gauge the strength of price movements, assess liquidity, and measure market sentiment. Generally speaking, higher volume implies increased activity and attention and may signal that volatility is about to enter the market.
In practice, volume is typically represented by bars at the bottom of a trading window. A given candle will also have a corresponding volume bar, which usually changes colour depending on how the candle closes. For example, if an asset closes above the opening price of its candle, the candle and volume bar will both be green.
Beyond the standard volume indicator, there are other tools that interpret and plot volume in different ways. These indicators often present the volume data in the form of charts, histograms, or oscillators, making it easier to spot trends, reversals, and breakouts.
How to Use Volume in Trading
First, let’s look at three of the most common ways to use a volume indicator in technical analysis: confirming trends, identifying reversals and breakouts, and analysing liquidity and market sentiment.
Confirming Trends
One of the most effective uses of volume is for confirming a price trend. When a movement is accompanied by a high volume, it suggests that the market believes the trend will continue. Conversely, if a price movement occurs on a low volume, it may mean a lack of conviction, indicating that a trend might be weak and that a reversal could be imminent.
The easiest way to think about this is in terms of supply and demand. In a hypothetical bull trend, demand will outweigh supply. When the trend first begins, demand might be high, causing the trend to progress upward on strong volume. As the asset becomes increasingly expensive, demand falls, leading to a drop in volume.
Identifying Reversals and Breakouts
Traders also often use volume to spot potential reversals and breakouts. As described, decreasing volume in a trend can signal that a reversal is inbound. When this lines up with a critical support/resistance level, traders can begin to anticipate that a reversal is likely to occur. Similarly, when an asset breaks through a key support or resistance level on a strong volume, it suggests that the breakout may continue in that direction.
Analysing Liquidity and Market Sentiment
Volume is also essential for assessing an asset’s liquidity. High volume implies high liquidity, making it easier for traders to enter and exit positions without slippage or high spread costs. On the other hand, an asset with low volume and liquidity may be more susceptible to sudden volatility and greater costs.
For most forex traders, liquidity is usually not an issue, especially in major pairs. But for stock traders, low liquidity can cause issues like being stopped out prematurely or struggling to enter/exit at their preferred price.
Lastly, analysing volume can provide insights into market sentiment, revealing whether most traders are bullish or bearish. For example, the start of the 2020 Coronavirus market crash saw volume increase significantly in the S&P 500, well beyond levels seen over the previous year. This was a sign to traders that sentiment had become extremely bearish.
Popular Stock Volume Indicators
Beyond the regular volume bars, there are several volume indicators frequently used by traders. These aren’t just day trading volume indicators or limited to stocks. Instead, they can be applied to a wide range of markets across virtually any timeframe.
Accumulation/Distribution (A/D)
The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) index, developed by Marc Chaikin, is designed to measure the cumulative flow of money in and out of an asset. It helps traders identify whether a stock is being accumulated (bought) or distributed (sold) by the market participants.
The A/D line is calculated by adding or subtracting a measure of volume, depending on the relationship between the closing price and the high and low prices of the day. When the A/D line rises, it signals that buying pressure is strong, while a declining A/D line indicates selling pressure. Divergences between the A/D line and an asset’s price can also be used to spot potential trend reversals.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, also developed by Marc Chaikin, takes the A/D line a step further. It calculates an average of the A/D values over a specific period, typically 20 or 21 days, then divides the figure by the average volume from the same period. This results in a volume average indicator that oscillates between 0 and 1.
Generally, a positive CMF value indicates more buying than selling pressure, suggesting a bullish market sentiment. In contrast, a negative CMF value implies more selling pressure, demonstrating bearish sentiment.
Traders can use the CMF to identify potential trend reversals, confirm price breakouts, and spot divergences. Its versatility and sensitivity to market movements have led many to consider it one of the best volume indicators for day trading.
On-Balance Volume (OBV)
On-balance volume (OBV) is a cumulative volume indicator developed by Joe Granville in the 1960s. It adds or subtracts a candle’s trading volume based on whether the asset closes above or below the previous candle. The main idea behind OBV is that volume precedes price, and significant changes in OBV with little price movement can be a sign of a potential move.
When plotted, OBV looks similar to the A/D indicator. However, its movements tend to be sharper and more defined, which means it can produce more signals than A/D. Like A/D, a rising OBV line suggests that buying pressure is outpacing selling pressure, indicating that the price may continue on a bullish trend. It’s also a powerful tool for spotting divergences between price and volume.
Is A/D or OBV the better buy and sell volume indicator? Ultimately, the answer is subjective and depends on the individual trader. Your best bet is to apply both to a chart and observe their differences. You’ll find both indicators, alongside dozens of other tools, in the free TickTrader platform we offer at FXOpen.
Common Mistakes to Avoid When Trading with Volume
Like all market indicators, volume isn’t a silver bullet. While it can help traders to make predictions and confirm movements, there are a couple of key mistakes to avoid when trading volume in a strategy.
Misinterpreting Volume Spikes
One of the biggest pitfalls is misinterpreting sudden spikes in volume. While high volume can indicate a strong trend or the start of a reversal, it’s also wise to be cognisant of the wider context before making a decision to enter a trade. Singular events, like earnings announcements, news releases, or market rumours, can cause spikes in volume.
For instance, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions often lead to significant volume entering the market. While the decision may cause a sharp spike in price and volume, the asset can just as easily reverse and take off in the other direction as traders digest additional information. In other words, a volume spike may not necessarily signal a sustainable trend. In these scenarios, waiting for the dust to settle and looking for additional factors to support your bias is best.
Overreliance on Volume Data
Another mistake to avoid is relying too heavily on volume data alone. While analysing volume is a valuable tool, it should form part of a broader strategy supported by other technical indicators.
Volume is a leading indicator, as are the other indicators listed in this article, meaning it can help traders predict future price movements. Therefore, it’s best to pair volume analysis with a lagging indicator, like moving averages or Bollinger Bands, which can confirm a trader’s prediction.
For instance, you could look for divergences between price and volume, anticipating a reversal. Once you set a bias, wait for a moving average crossover to confirm the trend and enter in that direction. In doing so, you now have extra confirmation that your prediction was correct.
Your Next Steps
You now have a comprehensive overview of volume and how it can be a valuable addition to any trading strategy. Wondering what your next steps should be? You can try this:
1. Hop on the TickTrader platform and observe the relationship between volume and price, especially during trends, reversals and breakouts.
2. Test out the three indicators listed in this article. If you find one that you like, search for further resources to expand your knowledge.
3. Backtest a volume trading strategy, logging your results and adjusting your system as you go.
4. Feel ready to put your skills to the test? Open an FXOpen account and put your strategy to work.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
How tops (even if temporary) can occurI can not say how long this Short will last, because I am currently viewing Order Flow and watching Live to look for clues.
But at the very least, if you were scalping, here was a great trade.
Buying volume exploded high above the last point of Supply, but price did not.
Therefore, we can see there is likely Buying Absorption occuring, as we also have upper wicks on the 15 minute candles.
It's probably going to drop more here, but depending on what you think of the market will depend on how long you hold this Short.
We can see that at least here, you had a profit based on a 15 minute volume analysis. It was a 2% move on Bitcoin within 30 minutes which is fantastic.
How bottoms (even if temporary) can occurI was out enjoying myself holding short when this was happening, as I expected lower.
I did not get the chance to have a closer look at the volume indicator on Coinbase, which is what I really should have done, as it would have allowed me to buy the bottom. But we all have stuff to do.
Now my opinion on the market does not really matter as we have to keep re-analysing what is happening on the chart to look for clues as to whether the current analysis may be right or wrong.
In this case, we can analyse Volume entirely using the indicator.
So what do we see here?
In the yellow circle, we have an initial Selling Climax, which CAN occur in Accumulation.
We know it can also occur in Re-distribution, so this is not enough information. However, we can also be wary of an upthrust. I know it's okay to buy before Upthrusts too! So this doesn't really matter, just changes the length of time and height of target of the Long trade.
Anyway, we have a second touch, higher then the first, where equal selling volumes failed to push price lower.
In this case, we wait for more clues.
In the white circle, we have lower volumes of selling, but still constant selling with what looks like no buying.
We wait for more clues...
Now in the Blue circles, we have, once again, 2 equal points of selling volume where the 2nd one did not push price lower.
Since we have already had our Selling Climax, now it is likely we could be in either Upthrust stage if Redistribution, or Secondary Test stage if Accumulation.
Either way, we should be expecting price to go up soon after this has happened a 2nd time.
Now, the market broke a very important structure, so at this point I would be wary of Longs at this point. Not enough evidence has happened. A small Long would have been okay.
Now next, we have a 3rd confirmation point. In the light yellow/orange circle, we have a weak selling volume push down, and price continued to go up with not much selling.
I could, at this point, increase my position as my confidence grows.
As price rose through the Orange square box and retested it, the retest was with low selling volume.
This could increase my confidence even more, and I could even add a little more to my position if I wanted to.
Always keeping my Stop Loss below the bottom here.
Now, since I was thinking the market would drop and this could just be an Upthrust, I would probably have closed my Long position in the late 25k's, as I knew SOME liquidity is likely to be taken out at least.
However, if you are Bullish, this would have been a great Mid term Swing trade.
Nevertheless, either way, the Short position higher up was quite obvious to me, and this would have allowed me to Take Profit in a fantastic zone and switch sides.
But we are not always staring at the charts, we have lives to live.
However, if I do see this LIVE, then I can react accordingly.
This is one of the many reasons why the Volume Indicator is THE ONLY indicator I use nowadays.
Correlations of Retail Stock Traders & Carl Jung's Archetypes Carl Jung, a renowned Swiss psychiatrist and psychoanalyst, introduced the concept of archetypes as universal patterns or symbols that reside in the collective unconscious.
Carl Jung's archetypes , rooted in the collective unconscious, offer profound insights into human behavior and decision-making processes.
(archetypes example would be the Devil and Angel on your shoulder, Jung beleives there is more to it that good and evil)
Retail stock traders, operating in a dynamic and often volatile market, are not exempt from these archetypal influences.
Let's explore the correlations between Jungian archetypes and how they impact the decision-making process of retail stock traders when executing trades.
The Hero Archetype:
The Hero archetype drives traders to conquer challenges and attain success. Within retail stock trading, this archetype encourages traders to take calculated risks, seize opportunities, and exhibit unwavering confidence in their decision-making abilities. While the Hero can inspire bravery and determination, traders must be mindful of impulsive and overly aggressive behaviors that may lead to irrational choices.
The Sage Archetype:
The Sage archetype embodies wisdom, knowledge, and the pursuit of truth. Retail stock traders influenced by the Sage archetype engage in extensive research, analysis, and due diligence before executing trades. They seek to understand market dynamics, uncover patterns, and leverage their intellectual prowess to make informed decisions. However, an excessive reliance on analysis may result in analysis paralysis, inhibiting timely execution.
The Jester Archetype:
The Jester archetype represents humor, spontaneity, and irreverence. In the world of retail stock trading, this archetype may manifest as traders who adopt a lighthearted approach and embrace risk with a sense of playfulness. Jester-influenced traders may be inclined to explore unconventional trades, pursue novelty, and seek excitement. Nevertheless, caution must be exercised to avoid impulsive or reckless decision-making.
The Caregiver Archetype:
The Caregiver archetype embodies compassion, empathy, and a desire to nurture others. In retail stock trading, traders influenced by this archetype prioritize socially responsible investing, seeking companies aligned with their values. They consider sustainable practices, ethical considerations, and impact investing as integral components of their decision-making process. However, emotional attachments to causes may cloud judgment, necessitating a balanced approach.
The Magician Archetype:
The Magician archetype symbolizes transformation, power, and the ability to manifest desired outcomes. Traders influenced by the Magician archetype possess intuitive market understanding and employ strategies that seem almost mystical. They may rely on technical analysis, precise timing, and sophisticated algorithms or trading systems. However, an overreliance on intuition without grounding in tangible data may result in unreliable decision-making.
The Shadow Archetype:
Carl Jung's concept of the shadow archetype represents the darker, suppressed aspects of the psyche. In retail stock trading, the shadow can manifest as greed, fear, impulsivity, or an inclination toward unethical practices. Traders must confront their shadows and acknowledge the potential biases and emotional influences that can cloud judgment. By bringing the shadow into conscious awareness, traders can make more objective and rational decisions.
Impact on Decision-Making Process:
The interplay between these archetypes and the shadow profoundly affects the decision-making process of retail stock traders. Awareness of these archetypal influences enables traders to leverage their strengths while mitigating potential pitfalls. Recognizing the shadow archetype's presence allows traders to confront their biases, manage emotions, and make more rational and ethical decisions.
Understanding the correlations between Carl Jung's archetypes and the decision-making process of retail stock traders sheds light on the intricate psychological factors at play within financial markets.
By recognizing and integrating these archetypal influences into their decision-making process, traders can enhance self-awareness, improve emotional regulation, and ultimately make more balanced, informed, and profitable trading decisions.
What Is the Difference Between VWMA vs VWAP?When trading in the financial markets, having the right tools and indicators can make all the difference. Two popular indicators used by traders are VWMA and VWAP, both of which factor volume data into their calculations.
But what’s the difference between the two, and which one should you consider using? In this guide, we’ll break down both indicators, show how they’re calculated, and discuss the key differences.
What Is VWMA?
VWMA stands for Volume-Weighted Moving Average. It’s a lagging technical indicator that’s calculated similarly to a Simple Moving Average (SMA) but taking volume into account. In essence, a high volume will have a greater impact on the VWMA, offering traders a more accurate representation of an asset’s price trend than non-volume weighted moving averages.
We can see the similarities when comparing the calculation of the SMA to the VWMA. If you wanted an SMA over three periods, you’d use:
3-Period SMA = (Close 1 + Close 2 + Close 3) / 3
Close here refers to the closing price of an asset. Meanwhile, to calculate a VWMA, the formula is:
3-Period VWMA = ((Close 1 * Volume 1) + (Close 2 * Volume 2) + (Close 3 * Volume 3)) / (Volume 1 + Volume 2 + Volume 3)
One advantage of VWMA is that it can filter out noise from small price movements that don't have a significant impact on trading volume. It can also help traders identify the strength of a trend by showing if price movements are accompanied by increasing or decreasing trading volume.
Ultimately, traders use VWMA in much the same way as they use other moving averages. For example, they may look for the price to cross over or under the VWMA line to determine whether an asset is bullish or bearish.
However, combining the SMA and VWMA indicators can be a powerful technique. A divergence between the two can be used to gauge the strength and direction of a trend. In the chart above, a bearish trend was signified by the VWMA (blue) sitting beneath the SMA (orange). As a result, the crossover signalled a change in market direction.
What Is VWAP?
VWAP stands for Volume-Weighted Average Price. It’s similar in principle to the VWMA, but rather than being a moving average, it shows the ratio of an asset’s price to its total trading volume in a given trading session, known as its anchor period. Consequently, it produces an average price that stays relatively static throughout a trading day, compared to a moving average, which closely follows prices.
The VWAP calculation is reset at the start of each trading day.
The actual steps involved are slightly more complicated:
1. Calculate the typical price from the session's first candle, using (High + Low + Close) / 3.
2. Multiply the volume of that candle by the typical price (Volume * Typical Price).
3. Calculate the sum of (Volume * Typical Price) from the first candle to the current one.
4. Calculate the sum of the volume from the first candle to the current one.
5. Divide the sum of (Volume * Typical Price) by the sum of the volume to get the VWAP.
Because the VWAP is calculated using the first candle of a trading day, it’s best-used intraday on low timeframe charts, like the 1-, 5-, or 15-minute. Its value is virtually identical across all timeframes.
Thankfully, traders don’t need to perform any of these calculations themselves. In the free TickTrader platform offered by us at FXOpen, you’ll find both the VWMA and VWAP indicators ready to start using within minutes.
A key advantage of VWAP is that it can offer traders an idea of the "fair value" of an asset. This is in line with the idea of mean reversion, which states that prices tend to revert to their average over time. If an asset trades below its VWAP, it could be considered undervalued. Likewise, if an asset is trading above its VWAP, it could be considered overvalued, and traders may look for potential opportunities to sell the asset.
However, sustained price action above or below the VWAP may also indicate a trend. Note that mean reversions and these trends aren’t mutually exclusive; an asset may soar well above the VWAP, revert back to it, and then continue much higher in a strong bull trend, like in the chart above. In this way, the VWAP can be used to effectively trade pullbacks and identify entries that align with higher timeframe trends.
What Is the Difference Between VWAP and VWMA?
While both VWMA and VWAP use volume data to provide a more accurate representation of an asset's price trend, several differences exist between the volume-weighted average price vs volume-weighted moving average.
Calculation
The first distinction is in the calculations. VWMA is an N-period moving average of the closing price, weighted by trading volume. VWAP, on the other hand, takes into account high, low, and closing prices and is anchored to a specific session and weighted by trading volume.
Sensitivity
Due to their differing calculations, VWMA tends to follow prices closely and is more sensitive, while VWAP is less reactive to fluctuations in both price and volume. This means that the slope of the VWMA changes more frequently, making it better suited to determining trends at-a-glance, especially when combined with other moving averages.
VWAP, meanwhile, can be useful for identifying short-term deviations from the average, which may provide valuable trading opportunities based on mean reversion.
Timeframe
Another critical difference relates to the applicable timeframes. Like other moving averages, VWMA is timeframe agnostic, meaning the way it reacts to price changes is the same across all timeframes, whether monthly or 1-minute charts.
VWAP is typically calculated using a single day’s price data, so if you try to apply VWAP to daily charts or above, it won’t indicate much at all. It’s much more effective on intraday timeframes, especially 1-hour or below.
Trading Strategy
Because of the differences above, trading strategies for the volume-weighted moving average vs VWAP can be quite different. VWMA can be more effective for identifying trends and may present more trading opportunities if using a short period, like 10 or 20 candles, due to its heightened sensitivity. It also has more use for swing trading or position trading strategies.
VWAP is better suited to mean reversion strategies and gauging the fair value of an asset intraday. While it can be used in a trend-following approach, it may not be as effective at identifying long-term trends due to its focus on a single trading day. Instead, traders should look to identify a higher timeframe trend and then trade pullbacks to the VWAP in anticipation of trend continuation.
Which One to Use
Choosing between VWMA vs VWAP ultimately depends on your trading strategy and preferences. If you’re looking for a moving average that may more accurately reflect the trend of an asset, then VWMA may be a better choice. On the other hand, if you want a more static indicator that can offer mean reversion trading opportunities on intraday charts, then VWAP could be preferable.
Experimenting is the best way to determine which is right for you. You can try applying both in the TickTrader terminal to see how the price responds to each across different timeframes, noting your observations. When you feel ready to put your choice into practice, you can open an FXOpen account and evaluate your strategy in live markets. Good luck!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Understanding VWMA - Accu/Dist - OBVBlue flag showed us the decline of The A/D line, before entering sideways.
Sept 30th, showed the lowest price and the lowest OBV line.
When price crossed up VWMA (black flag), there was a significant rise of OBV line, while The A/D line was still in sideways mode.
Jan 19th, when the price and VWMA are still in the sideways, the A/D line slightly rose up meaning there was an adding volume action. Even though The up-days fewer than the down-days (OBV line declined).
March 16th, price crossed up VWMA, the OBV line moved up, and The A/D line has been rising up since Jan 19th.
📊 Volume Profile: IndicatorsThere’s a reason why trading volume has been a standard indicator on every piece of charting software over the last 30 years… it provides a crucial edge.
Volume provides you with logical insight into the activity of market participants at varying price levels. Volume analysis helps traders to become more reactionary to price movements rather than trying to predict where price will go next, as is the case with most technical indicators.
📍Key takeaways about volume
Key takeaways about the normal volume indicator plotted on the X-axis in trading:
🔹Volume Indicator: The normal volume indicator measures the total number of shares or contracts traded during a given time period. It is commonly displayed as a histogram or line chart, with the X-axis representing time.
🔹Liquidity: Volume is a crucial metric as it provides insights into the liquidity of a security. Higher volume generally indicates greater market participation and liquidity, making it easier to buy or sell the asset without significantly impacting its price.
🔹Confirmation: Volume can confirm the validity of price movements. In an uptrend, increasing volume supports the bullish move, suggesting strength and conviction among buyers. Conversely, declining volume during an uptrend may signal weakness or lack of interest. The same principles apply to downtrends.
🔹 Breakouts and Reversals: Volume analysis is often used to identify breakouts and potential trend reversals. A significant increase in volume during a breakout suggests a higher probability of a sustained move, while decreasing volume near a support or resistance level might indicate a potential reversal.
🔹Divergence: Volume can reveal divergence between price and market sentiment. For example, if prices are rising but volume is decreasing, it could suggest that the rally is losing steam and a reversal may be imminent. Similarly, increasing volume during a price decline might indicate selling pressure and further downside potential.
🔹Confirmation of Patterns: Volume can provide confirmation or invalidation of chart patterns such as triangles, head and shoulders, or double tops/bottoms. Higher volume during pattern formations enhances their reliability, while low volume can cast doubt on the pattern's significance.
🔹Watch for Extreme Volume: Abnormal spikes in volume can indicate significant market events, such as earnings releases, news announcements, or institutional buying/selling. Unusual volume can lead to increased volatility and potentially offer trading opportunities.
🔹Relative Volume: Comparing current volume to historical average volume helps gauge the significance of the current trading activity. Higher volume relative to the average may imply increased interest, while lower volume might suggest a lack of conviction or reduced market participation.
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📊Volume Profile: Components & Concept📍What is a volume profile?
A Volume Profile is an advanced charting indicator that displays total volume traded at every price level over a user specified time period.
📍Volume Profiles Uses:
🔷 Identify Key Support and Resistance Levels for Setups
🔷 Determine Logical Take Profits and Stop Losses
🔷 Calculate Initial R Multiplier
🔷 Identify Balanced vs Imbalanced Markets
🔷 Determine Strength of Trends
📍Volume Profile Components:
🔹Point of Control (POC): Price level where the most volume traded for the session. Commonly referred to as the POC.
🔹Value Area (VA): Price range in which a user specified percentage volume was traded for a session. Volume profile traditionalist use 70% as it close to 1 standard deviation from the mean. The Point of Control is used as the mean on a volume profile.
🔹Volume Area High(VAH) : This represents the price level at which the highest volume of trades occurred during the analyzed period inside VA. It indicates a significant level of trading activity and is often considered a key resistance level.
🔹Volume Area Low(VAL): Conversely, the Volume Area Low represents the price level with the lowest volume of trades during the analyzed period inside VA. It signifies a level of low trading activity and is typically considered a support level.
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Unlocking the Power of Volume: Combining Volume with TAIn our previous blog posts, we explored the importance of volume analysis in understanding indicators that can be used for volume analysis. Today, we'll delve deeper into how combining volume analysis with technical analysis can provide valuable insights for traders and investors alike. We will do so by laying out a strategy that anyone can use that will utilize volume.
The Significance of Volume in Technical Analysis
We have previously discussed how volume plays a crucial role in technical analysis. It is essential to examine volume patterns alongside price action, as it helps traders determine liquidity and identify potential trading opportunities. When combined with technical indicators, volume offers a more comprehensive view of market activity and can enhance decision-making in trading.
Indicators to Combine with Volume Analysis
Here are some popular technical indicators that traders can use in conjunction with volume analysis:
1. Moving Averages
Moving averages (MAs) are one of the most widely used technical indicators, as they help traders identify trends and potential support and resistance levels. The two most commonly used moving averages are simple moving averages (SMA) and exponential moving averages (EMA). We'll use a short-term EMA (e.g., 9-day EMA) and a long-term EMA (e.g., 21-day EMA) for a strategy later in this post.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100, with readings below 30 indicating oversold conditions and readings above 70 indicating overbought conditions. The RSI can help traders identify potential trend reversals and entry/exit points.
The Strategy That Incorporates Volume
1. Identify Trend Direction
First, apply the 9-day EMA(shown in white) and the 21-day EMA(shown in purple) to your price chart. The trend direction is determined by the relationship between the two moving averages:
Uptrend: The 9-day EMA is above the 21-day EMA
Downtrend: The 9-day EMA is below the 21-day EMA
Sideways: The moving averages are intertwined, with no clear direction
2. Confirm Trend Strength with RSI
Apply the RSI to your chart, and use the 30 and 70 levels as reference points:
For uptrends, look for the RSI to stay above 30 and preferably above 50.
For downtrends, look for the RSI to stay below 70 and preferably below 50.
3. Analyze Trading Volume
Compare the volume levels during the trend to the average volume over a specific period of your choosing using your desired volume indicator (see previous post on volume indicators). If the volume is above average during the trend or is rising, it confirms its strength. Conversely, a decreasing volume may signal a weakening trend or a potential reversal.
4. Entry and Exit Points
Long Entry: In an uptrend, look for the RSI to pull back below 50, and then cross back above it. Confirm the entry with increasing trading volume. This indicates a potential buying opportunity.
Short Entry: In a downtrend, look for the RSI to pull back above 50 and then cross back below it. Confirm the entry with increasing trading volume. This indicates a potential selling opportunity.
Exit Points: Use the moving averages as trailing stop-loss levels. For long positions, exit when the 9-day EMA crosses below the 21-day EMA. For short positions, exit when the 9-day EMA crosses above the 21-day EMA.
Practical Tips for Combining Volume with Technical Analysis
Here are some practical tips for effectively integrating volume analysis with technical indicators:
1. Use Multiple Timeframes
Analyze volume patterns and technical indicators across different timeframes to identify potential trends and reversals more accurately. We always recommend a top-down time frame approach, starting at higher time frames and working down to your desired time frame for entries.
2. Look for Volume Confirmation
When a technical indicator signals a potential trading opportunity, confirm it with volume analysis to ensure the move is supported by strong market activity.
3. Monitor Divergences
Divergences between volume and price action can signal potential trend reversals or continuations. Keep an eye on these discrepancies to make informed trading decisions.
Conclusion:
Combining volume analysis with technical indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about market trends and potential trading opportunities. By understanding the relationship between volume and price action and incorporating this knowledge with technical analysis, traders can unlock powerful insights and enhance their overall trading strategy.
Volume Indicators: Using Indicators to Analyze VolumeIn our last post we discussed how volume plays a crucial role in financial trading, providing insights into the strength of price movements and overall market sentiment. Volume indicators are essential tools for traders, helping them make informed decisions based on market activity. In this blog post, we will dive deep into the world of volume indicators, discussing their importance and exploring the best indicators available for analyzing volume in day trading. We will also provide practical examples of how these indicators can be used to enhance trading strategies.
The Importance of Volume Indicators
Volume indicators can reveal the level of interest in a financial instrument, showing how many shares, contracts, or lots are being bought or sold within a specific time frame . By analyzing volume, traders can better understand the market's momentum and identify potential breakouts, reversals, and areas of support or resistance. Volume indicators can also help traders detect bullish or bearish divergences, where price movements and volume are not aligned, indicating a possible trend reversal.
Top Volume Indicators
a. Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
VWAP is a popular volume indicator that calculates the average price of a financial instrument, weighted by volume. It is often used as a benchmark by institutional traders to gauge the efficiency of their trades. VWAP can help traders identify trends and potential entry and exit points, particularly for intraday trading.
b. Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
Like VWAP, VWMA assigns more importance to periods with higher volume by calculating a moving average that incorporates volume data. VWMA can be used to confirm trends, as a rising VWMA in an uptrend or a declining VWMA in a downtrend shows that volume is supporting the price movement.
c. Money Flow Index (MFI)
MFI is an oscillator that measures the inflow and outflow of money into a financial instrument over a specific time frame. It combines both price and volume data, providing insights into buying and selling pressure. MFI can help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, as well as potential trend reversals.
d. Accumulation and Distribution Indicator
This indicator measures the cumulative flow of money into and out of a financial instrument, helping traders identify accumulation (buying) and distribution (selling) phases. A rising Accumulation and Distribution indicator suggests strong buying pressure, while a falling indicator signals strong selling pressure.
e. Klinger Oscillator
The Klinger Oscillator is a volume-based indicator designed to predict long-term trends by comparing short-term and long-term volume flows. It can help traders confirm price movements and detect potential trend reversals.
f. On-Balance Volume (OBV)
OBV is a simple but effective volume indicator that calculates the cumulative volume, adding the day's volume when the price closes higher and subtracting it when the price closes lower. OBV can help traders identify trends and potential breakouts by comparing price movements with volume data.
Applying Volume Indicators in Trading
When using volume indicators, it is important to remember that they should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and price action analysis. By combining volume indicators with other technical indicators and chart patterns, traders can develop comprehensive strategies for trading breakouts, reversals, and identifying areas of support and resistance.
Conclusion
Understanding volume and incorporating volume indicators into trading strategies is essential for traders looking to make informed decisions in the financial markets. By using a combination of indicators such as VWAP, VWMA, MFI, Accumulation and Distribution, Klinger Oscillator, and OBV, traders can better analyze market activity and develop effective trading strategies.
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