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GBP/USD: Anticipating Market Movements Amid Holiday TradingAs the holiday season approaches, many institutional traders are taking a break for Christmas, leading to a unique trading environment in the financial markets. Today marks the reopening of Forex markets and selected indices, but traders should anticipate lower trading volumes due to the absence of many market participants. This reduced activity often results in heightened volatility, as fewer traders can lead to larger price swings when trades are executed. Turning our attention to the GBP/USD currency pair, it opens the week with a rather narrow candle range, currently trading around the 1.2531 mark. This level underscores the bearish trend that we’ve previously discussed, suggesting a continuation of downward movement in the near term. Traders should closely watch the significant support level at 1.2500, which may come under pressure as we approach the end of the year. There is a legitimate possibility that this demand zone could be breached, particularly with the unique market conditions prevailing during the holiday period. If the 1.2500 support does fail, the next area of interest for bearish traders would likely be around 1.2400. This level represents another critical support point, which, if broken, could indicate a strong bearish impulse in the market. As we navigate through the remainder of December, it's essential for traders to be prepared for unexpected moves. Currently, we find ourselves in a cautious position, opting to hold off on any trading activity at the moment. Our strategy is to wait for the price to reach our ideal demand area around 1.2500 before considering the next trade. It’s crucial to have a clear plan in place, especially in a market characterized by low liquidity and potential volatility. Monitoring the price action closely will be key to identifying optimal entry points that align with our trading strategy. As the year draws to a close, it’s vital to remain vigilant and adaptable. The interplay between reduced market participation and potential volatility could create opportunities, but it also necessitates prudent risk management. Whether we see a bearish momentum take shape before year-end or have to wait for the new year, patience and a disciplined approach will be critical to navigating this unique trading environment. Previous Idea ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Analysis: Pair Recovers from 7-Month LowGBP/USD Analysis: Pair Recovers from 7-Month Low The GBP/USD pair dropped below the psychological level of 1.25 today, a level last seen in early May. Over the past two days, the pair has declined by more than 1.5%, driven by central bank decisions. On one hand, the US dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve chair's comments on Wednesday, hinting at potentially higher interest rates in 2025. On the other hand, the pound weakened on Thursday after news from the Bank of England (BoE). According to media reports: → The BoE kept the interest rate unchanged. → Market expectations for the BoE's February decision are putting additional pressure on the pound. Technical analysis of the GBP/USD chart reflects a continuation of bearish momentum, with the pair moving within a descending channel: → In mid-December, the price broke below the lower boundary of a narrowing triangle (highlighted in blue), signalling the potential resumption of the downtrend. → Around the same time, trading was concentrated near the 1.265 level. Despite repeated tests of this level, it seems that the bears took control. Looking ahead, the pair may consolidate near the channel’s median line as the year comes to a close, with this zone acting as a balance point between supply and demand. Stronger directional moves might materialise in 2025. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY (November/2024) source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK edged up for a second month to 2.6% in November 2024 from 2.3% in October, matching forecasts. It is the highest inflation rate in eight months, with prices rising at a faster pace for recreation and culture (3.6% vs 3% in October), mostly admission fees to live music events and theaters and computer games; housing and utilities (3% vs 2.9%), particularly actual rents for housing; and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2% vs 1.9%). In addition, transport prices fell much less (-0.9% vs -1.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars were partially offset by a downward effect from air fares. Meanwhile, services inflation was steady at 5%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.1%, less than 0.6% in October and matching forecasts. The core CPI rose 3.5% on the year from 3.3% in October but below forecasts of 3.6%. On the month, core prices stalled.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
GBP/USD rebounds to test THIS key resistance The pound has been among the strongest currencies in the G10 space so far this week, owing to strength in UK data and diminishing hopes that the Bank of England will deliver a rate cut at this week’s policy meeting. However, against the US dollar, it is likely to resume lower given how strong the greenback has been as expectations about a hawkish rate cut from the FOMC builds. Meanwhile, a bit of selling in the stock market is also boosting the appeal of the US dollar, and this could provide pressure on the GBP/USD as it tests THIS key resistance area around 1.2715 to 1.2720 – a prior support area and where we have the 61.8% confluence. This morning’s release of UK wages data surprised to the upside, and with it killed any hopes for a BoE rate cut this week. The Average Earnings Index rose to 5.2% on a 3m/y basis, beating the 4.6% reading expected. Strong wage growth and sticky inflation in the services sector are factors discouraging the BoE to cut rates further. The latest UK wages data come hot on the heels of global PMI figures released yesterday. The key theme was faster-than-expected manufacturing contraction but stronger services expansion. The standout was the US services PMI, hitting a 38-month high of 58.5, driven by firm optimism about output under a new Trump administration. Coming just ahead of the year’s final FOMC meeting, it highlights the US economy’s resilience and potential for strength—factors that could fuel inflation and a less dovish Fed. Today’s US retail sales data was mixed, and in any case unlikely to influence the Fed’s decision tomorrow. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Short
by FOREXcom
1
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Faces TroubleMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Faces Trouble GBP/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.2720 zone. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today - The British Pound started another decline from the 1.2800 resistance zone. - There is a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at 1.2650 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen. GBP/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to continue higher above the 1.2840 resistance zone. The British Pound started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.2750 support zone against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis. The pair even traded below 1.2650 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2610 level. A low was formed at 1.2608 and the pair is now consolidating losses. Immediate resistance on the upside is near a short-term declining channel at 1.2650. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2787 swing high to the 1.2608 low. The first major resistance is near the 1.2674 zone. The main hurdle sits at 1.2720 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2787 swing high to the 1.2608 low. A close above the 1.2720 resistance might spark a steady upward move. The next major resistance is near the 1.2785 zone. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2850 resistance in the near term. Initial support on the GBP/USD chart sits at 1.2610. The next major support sits at 1.2585, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2520. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
GBP/USD Declines Following UK GDP Data ReleaseGBP/USD Declines Following UK GDP Data Release Today, the UK GDP changes for October were published, as reported by Forex Factory (month-on-month): → Actual = -0.1%; → Forecast = +0.1%; → Previous = -0.1%. The data revealed a slowing UK economy, defying analysts’ optimistic expectations. According to Reuters and other outlets, the latest GDP figures: → Could strengthen traders’ expectations of a more rapid interest rate cut by the Bank of England in 2025; → Undermine the target announced last week by Prime Minister Keir Starmer to make the UK the fastest-growing economy among G7 nations. Technical Analysis of the GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart → From its December high (when a false breakout of the psychological 1.29 level occurred), the pound has weakened by approximately 1.4%, with the RSI indicator dipping into oversold territory for the first time this month. → The bullish trajectory (highlighted in blue), formed since late November, has lost its relevance after a breakout, suggesting bears are attempting to resume the downtrend within the red-shaded channel. → The 1.2615 level, which has repeatedly influenced the price (marked with arrows), may continue to act as support. Looking ahead, the Bank of England’s meeting next Thursday is likely to trigger heightened volatility. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, any surprises could significantly impact the current bearish momentum. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
GBPUSD: Channel Up attempting a 4H MA200 cross.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.376, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 36.982) as despite having started a Channel up since the November 22nd bottom, this is after a long term bearish trend that only now will determine if it will switch to bullish or not. Today was in fact the 2nd rejection on the 4H MA200 but at the same time, the 4H MA50 is supporting. This range makes the 4H timeframe neutral as well. If the MA50 continues to hold and the 4H MA200 is crossed with a full candle close, then we will take a short term long, aiming under the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.29000). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Climbs BackMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Climbs Back GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.2600 resistance. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today - The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2620. - There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2680 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen. GBP/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair declined after it failed to clear the 1.3000 resistance. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound even traded below the 1.2800 support against the US Dollar. Finally, the pair tested the 1.2500 zone and is currently attempting a fresh increase. The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2600. The pair even climbed above the 1.2700 level. A high was formed at 1.2749 and the pair is now consolidating gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2506 swing low to the 1.2749 high. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2720. The next major resistance is near 1.2750. A close above the 1.2750 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2800. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2880. On the downside, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.2680. If there is a downside break below 1.2680, the pair could accelerate lower. The first major support is near the 1.2630 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2506 swing low to the 1.2749 high. The next key support is seen near 1.2600, below which the pair could test 1.2570. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2510 support. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate Above Forecasts (October/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% October/2024 source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate in the UK went up to 2.3% in October 2024, the highest in six months, compared to 1.7% in September. This exceeded both the Bank of England's target and market expectations of 2.2%. The largest upward contribution came from housing and household services (5.5% vs 3.8% in September), mainly electricity (-6.3% vs -19.5%) and gas (-7.3% vs -22.8%), reflecting the rise of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in October 2024. Also, prices rose faster for restaurants and hotels (4.3% vs 4.1%) and rebounded for housing and utilities (2.9% vs -1.7%). Prices of services increased slightly more (5% vs 4.9%), matching estimates form the central bank. On the other hand, food inflation was steady at 1.9% and the largest offsetting downward contribution came from recreation and culture (3% vs 3.8%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.6%. Finally, annual core inflation edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
GBPUSD: False Resistance Break Could Add to DeclineFX:GBPUSD Back to the liquidity test above after the free fall. The pair lacks bullish conviction amid a stable US dollar and as investors choose to wait for the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearing before placing strong bets. A clear bearish wave is forming on the larger timeframe, on the smaller timeframe the downtrend is formed based on negative fundamentals, which only strengthened after Trump's victory. Therefore, any strong resistance can easily hold the market. On H4, it is trying to break out of the main range, breaking the main support level. A consolidation is forming inside the channel, if sellers hold the 1.269 - 1.277 zone, we can expect a decline towards the areas of interest in the medium term. Resistance: 1.282 - 1.277 and 1.269 Support: 1.259 - 1.247 and 1.231 The focus is on the resistance level mentioned above, as the further struggle and movement of the market depends on this important zone at this point. The bearish structure will be broken when the local high at 1.282 i.e. (0.5 fib) is broken and the price consolidates above this zone.
Short
by Bentradegold