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GBP/USD tests key 1.30 handle ahead of FOMCThe pound rallied following the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates earlier. Governor Bailey refrained from defining what “gradual” would mean for the pace of future cuts. The GBP/USD rally was aided by a sharp drop in the US dollar. The focus is now turning to the FOMC rate decision, which means the greenback could change course again. The Bank of England lowered rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, aligning with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favor of the cut, as anticipated. However, the BoE maintains it can’t lower rates “too quickly or by too much,” opting instead for a more measured approach. The central bank sees a gradual easing as appropriate, keeping to its September guidance on rates. The recent budget is expected to lift inflation slightly, adding around 0.5% to CPI at its peak according to the BoE —just above the forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Like the OBR, the BoE isn’t expecting significant economic growth from this budget. As it stands, the Bank intends to continue cutting rates gradually over the coming months. This should keep the GBP under pressure. Will the GBP/USD now hold below the key 1.30 handle or break above it? What it does here will determine the near-term direction. All eyes are on the Fed Chair Powell. The Fed could shed light on the central bank’s next steps. Markets are fully expecting a 25-basis-point reduction. Chair Powell may steer clear of any commitment to a rapid easing cycle, especially if he believes Trump’s policies could drive inflation. Any indication of hawkishness could boost bond yields further, which could give the dollar another boost. Even though rate expectations have shifted, significant changes in market trends are unlikely in the immediate term. However, over the coming quarters, rising US yields could strengthen the dollar, adding pressure on other economies while supporting the US market’s broader trend. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
GBP/USD Strengthens Amid BoE Rate Cut Speculations and U.S. DataOn Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair exhibited a notable rise against its major counterparts, driven by a reassessment among traders regarding the anticipated interest rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE) for the remainder of the year. Market sentiment has shifted as analysts speculate that the BoE is poised to implement a rate reduction in one of its forthcoming meetings in November or December. According to recent insights from Reuters, traders are now factoring in an 80% likelihood that the BoE will lower its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday, bringing them down to 4.75%. This potential rate cut comes amidst a backdrop of economic considerations that have traders on alert, particularly with the release of key U.S. employment figures today. The market will focus on the USD Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month data, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. These indicators are critical and are expected to bring strong volatility to the markets. Current forecasts suggest a headwind for the USD, which could concurrently bolster the GBP against the euro and impact other pairs correlated with the DXY. From a technical analysis perspective, GBP/USD has recently approached a significant demand area, which could serve as a springboard for upward movement. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reflects a bearish sentiment among retail traders, indicating a broader market consensus that may be shifting. In contrast, "smart money"—institutional investors—appear to be accumulating long positions, potentially signaling a bullish outlook. Adding another layer of complexity are seasonal trends, which historically suggest that the GBP/USD pair could be on the brink of a new bullish rally. Traders are now posed with a critical question: is the current price level the optimal entry point for long positions, or should they await a potential dip to a lower demand zone before committing their capital? The outcome of today’s economic data releases will likely play a pivotal role in determining the short-term trajectory of the GBP/USD pair. Should the U.S. data disappoint, it may further sway sentiment toward the pound, while strong U.S. figures could dampen enthusiasm for the GBP, sparking further discussions around additional BoE rate cuts as the year draws to a close. In conclusion, the interplay between central bank policies, economic data, and market sentiment is creating an intricate landscape for traders navigating the GBP/USD pair. With potential rate cuts on the horizon for the BoE and significant U.S. economic indicators set to be released, volatility is inevitable and positions are likely to adjust in response to these developments. As the trading day unfolds, all eyes will remain glued to the charts and economic reports, seeking clarity and direction in what promises to be a dynamic session. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/SD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
GPBUSD Bearish Megaphone starting new wave.GBPUSD is trading inside a Bearish Megaphone for the past 30 trading days. The price may now be supported by the 1hour MA50 but has formed the bearish formation it had on all prior tops under the Falling Resistance. The 1hour RSI has formed a similar topping pattern. As a result, this is a standard sell signal for the Bearish Megaphone. All declines reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, so we can target at least the previous Low at 1.2850. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Short
by TheCryptagon
GBP/USD Turns Bearish: Analyzing the Key Factors Behind DeclineThe GBP/USD pair has recently turned bearish after reaching a significant Supply area around 1.3228. This level, clearly visible on the weekly chart, has proven to be a formidable resistance, halting the pair's upward momentum and reversing its course. As of today, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3125, marking a notable decline from the previous highs. Weekly Chart Economic Calendar and Market Sentiment Today’s economic calendar highlights the USD ISM Manufacturing PMI, a critical indicator of economic health in the United States. As a leading indicator, the PMI reflects the purchasing managers' outlook, which can offer valuable insights into the overall economic sentiment. Businesses tend to react swiftly to market changes, making this data particularly relevant for understanding the current economic landscape. In contrast, the UK's economic calendar is sparse this week, offering little to support the GBP. The lack of high-impact economic data leaves GBP traders focusing on external factors, particularly from the US. The US economic calendar, however, is packed with significant data releases, including the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures spread throughout the week. However, the spotlight remains on US labor data, with key prints scheduled for Thursday and Friday. Thursday’s US ADP Employment Change will be the first major data release, serving as a precursor to Friday’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This week's labor market updates are crucial as they represent the last significant data points before the Federal Reserve's rate decision on September 18th. Before these critical releases, the market will also be watching the US JOLTS job openings, scheduled for Wednesday. The JOLTS data is expected to remain steady near 8.1 million for July, closely aligning with the previous month’s figure of 8.184 million. Technical and Sentiment Analysis: Indicators of Further Decline From a technical perspective, the recent rejection from the 1.3228 Supply area signals a potential continuation of the bearish trend. In addition to this, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report reveals an interesting dynamic. Retail traders are currently extremely bullish on GBP, which often serves as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that a reversal might be on the horizon. Seasonal trends also support the bearish outlook for GBP. Historically, this period tends to favor a continuation of the downtrend, aligning with the current market sentiment and technical indicators. Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors Supporting the Bearish Outlook The confluence of technical resistance at the Supply area, bearish seasonal trends, and contrarian sentiment indicators all point towards a continuation of the GBP/USD decline. As the market awaits critical economic data from the US, traders should remain cautious of further downside risks. The alignment of these factors underpins our bearish outlook on GBP/USD, reinforcing the idea that the pair may continue to trade lower in the near term. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6B1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBPUSD Buy Opportunity from SupportGBPUSD recently broke below its previous support level, yet it has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern near the psychological level of 1.3000. This level has shown resilience as the market decelerated while approaching it, forming a bullish divergence that strengthens the case for a rebound. The price has also bounced off the channel boundary and has now closed above the 1.3000 mark, showing higher lows, indicating building bullish momentum. Additionally, with the DXY forming a triple top at its resistance zone, there’s potential for a downward correction in the dollar, which could further support a GBPUSD rally. The target is the resistance zone around 1.3110
Long
by RTED_Investing
1
Market Analysis: GBP/USD RecoversMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Recovers GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.2950 resistance. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today - The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2950. - There is a key rising channel forming with support near 1.2980 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen. GBP/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair declined after it failed to clear the 1.3120 resistance. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound even traded below the 1.3000 support against the US Dollar. Finally, the pair tested the 1.2910 zone and is currently attempting a fresh increase. The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2950. The pair even climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3071 swing high to the 1.2907 low. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.3015. It coincides with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3071 swing high to the 1.2907 low. The next major resistance is near 1.3040. A close above the 1.3040 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.3070. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.3120. On the downside, there is a key support forming near a rising channel at 1.2980. If there is a downside break below 1.2980, the pair could accelerate lower. The first major support is near the 1.2940 level. The next key support is seen near 1.2910, below which the pair could test 1.2880. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2845 support. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
Buy Position on GBPusd (Reward 6.5)OANDA:GBPUSD In order to the EX zone in 4H time frame, We go to 15m time frame to enter the buy position more efficiently. Note: In EX zones, we can enter the position without any confirmation, but we always get better win rate by waiting for a confirmation signals to form. The confirmation signals in my strategy (Tactical Smart Money) are two kind: 1. SCOB (single candle order block) 2. ChoCh in lower time frame As always: Make sure you have a good partial exit plan, AND "KEEP CALM & OBEY YOUR PLANS." Happy trading.. Cheers, Aurio #Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #markets #Finance #Forex #BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Long
by x-Aurio
GBP/USD Outlook: Navigating Recent Trends and Upcoming EventsAfter a brief rally that saw GBP/USD rise above the 1.3000 mark on Friday, the pair lost momentum and closed the day marginally lower. As of Monday morning, GBP/USD remains relatively quiet, trading sideways above the 1.2970 level. This stagnation reflects a broader market reaction to various economic signals and upcoming events. Impact of US Treasury Bond Yields The recent increase in US Treasury bond yields has provided substantial support for the US Dollar, contributing to the reversal of GBP/USD's earlier gains. As investors flocked to the dollar, the pair's upward trajectory was curtailed. Additionally, the rise in US stock index futures, which increased between 0.5% and 0.7%, indicates a growing risk appetite among investors, further amplifying the dollar's strength. Potential for Bearish Impulses in GBP Given the current market conditions, there is a possibility of a bearish impulse for the GBP. Should risk flows dominate the financial markets after Wall Street opens, the USD may face renewed selling pressure. However, the demand areas could become the next target for sellers, suggesting that the GBP might struggle to maintain its upward momentum in the short term. Upcoming Economic Events Looking ahead, the UK government is set to present its Autumn Budget on Wednesday, which could have significant implications for GBP volatility. Market participants will closely monitor the details of the budget for potential fiscal measures that could influence the economy. Meanwhile, the US economic calendar is also packed with key data releases in the latter half of the week, adding further complexity to the market dynamics. Technical Analysis and COT Insights From a technical standpoint, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report offers valuable insights. Retail traders remain predominantly bearish, while "smart money" is beginning to build long positions. This divergence in sentiment can create opportunities for traders, particularly if the price reaches identified demand areas. For those looking to capitalize on potential movements, it may be prudent to consider long positions only when the price approaches these demand zones. This strategy aligns with risk management principles and may enhance the likelihood of favorable trade outcomes. Conclusion In conclusion, the current landscape for GBP/USD is characterized by a complex interplay of economic indicators, market sentiment, and upcoming events. As the pair navigates the immediate challenges, traders must remain vigilant and adaptable. Monitoring both the US and UK economic calendars, along with key technical levels, will be essential for making informed trading decisions. What are your thoughts on the potential movements of GBP/USD in the coming days, and how do you plan to position yourself in this evolving market?
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD: Will Demand Zones Trigger the Next Bullish Rally?The GBP/USD pair showed some strength on Thursday, advancing to open the Friday London session at 1.2978 as of the time of writing. Despite the recent uptick, the pair’s near-term outlook remains uncertain, as traders assess various market dynamics and potential demand levels that could drive future price action. Technical Overview: Mixed Sentiment and COT Report Analysis From a technical standpoint, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates an interesting divergence between retail traders and institutional investors. Retail traders have generally adopted a bearish stance, while "smart money" is beginning to build bullish positions, hinting at a potential shift in market sentiment. This kind of divergence often acts as a precursor to a trend reversal, but timing is critical. Adding to this potential bullish sentiment is our Forecaster, which currently suggests a possible start of a bullish season for the British Pound. However, our technical analysis suggests that the price has not yet reached a significant demand area to trigger a strong buying opportunity. As it stands, the recent bullish push may be short-lived, as the GBP/USD appears poised for a bearish correction. This pullback could be necessary for the pair to establish a firmer demand base before initiating a more sustainable bullish rally aligned with seasonal patterns. US Dollar Outlook: Trump’s Impact on Market Dynamics Meanwhile, the outlook for the US Dollar remains largely positive, fueled by growing expectations of a potential Donald Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election on November 5. Traders are anticipating the return of his aggressive economic policies, which are likely to include higher tariffs and lower taxes—measures historically seen as supportive of the US Dollar. However, the potential impact of a Trump administration could be negative for the currencies of major US trading partners, such as the British Pound. As traders price in this scenario, the US Dollar may strengthen further, adding additional bearish pressure on the GBP/USD pair in the short term. Current Strategy: Awaiting Key Demand Levels Given the current technical and fundamental setup, we are maintaining a cautious approach. While the recent price action and the COT data suggest a potential bullish shift for the GBP/USD, our strategy is to wait for the price to reach a key demand area before considering any long positions. This approach aims to minimize downside risk and capitalize on a more confirmed trend reversal. For now, we are on the sidelines, closely monitoring price movements and upcoming economic data releases that could influence market sentiment. Should the pair dip further into a demand zone, it could present an attractive opportunity for a long setup, aligned with both smart money positioning and seasonal trends. Conclusion The GBP/USD shows signs of a potential bullish season on the horizon, but with the price currently failing to reach strong demand levels, a pullback appears likely. Meanwhile, the US Dollar's strength, driven by speculation of Trump’s possible return to the White House, continues to weigh on the pair. For now, our strategy remains patient and data-driven, with a focus on finding the right demand level to initiate a bullish position. As always, staying disciplined and responsive to market shifts will be key in navigating the upcoming volatility. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD: Pound Faces Key Test Ahead BoE Governor Bailey’s SpeechToday, all eyes will be on Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, who is set to speak at an event organized by the Institute of International Finance later in the day. Bailey’s remarks could prove pivotal for the Pound Sterling (GBP), especially as the market remains sensitive to signals regarding the BoE’s stance on monetary policy. Potential Impact of Bailey’s Speech If Bailey adopts a dovish tone by highlighting ongoing progress in reducing inflation and does not counter market expectations for further rate cuts this year, the Pound could face immediate selling pressure. Here’s what to watch for: Dovish Remarks: If Bailey acknowledges progress in disinflation and hints at more accommodative monetary policy, it could reinforce expectations of further rate cuts, leading to a drop in GBP. Hawkish Pushback: On the other hand, if Bailey suggests that the BoE is still vigilant about inflation risks and signals a less aggressive approach toward rate cuts, the Pound could find some support. Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Eyes Lower Demand Zones The GBP/USD pair remains under selling pressure, with our bias still tilted to the downside, consistent with our previous forecast. From a technical standpoint, the chart now features an additional mid-level demand area, where the Pound might find temporary support. Here’s how the setup is shaping up: Current Demand Zones: We have added an intermediate demand area in anticipation of a possible short-term reaction in the Pound. This zone could act as a buffer, offering a potential retracement opportunity before a possible continuation of the bearish trend. COT Report Insights: According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain predominantly bearish on the Pound, while institutional investors, often referred to as “smart money,” are beginning to accumulate long positions. This divergence suggests that while the broader sentiment remains bearish, there is emerging buying interest from major players, hinting at a potential reversal. DXY Overbought Condition: The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains in overbought territory, suggesting that its bullish momentum could be nearing exhaustion. This aligns with our outlook for a possible GBP retracement if the DXY experiences a pullback. Bearish Bias Maintained: Despite the potential for a short-term bounce, our overall bias remains bearish for GBP/USD. We expect the pair to continue sliding toward the lower demand area, where we will look for a more defined reversal pattern to consider a long entry. Trading Strategy: Waiting for a Long Entry Setup Given the current scenario, we maintain a bearish outlook for GBP/USD but will be closely watching the price action near the identified demand areas. Here’s our strategy: Current Position: No active positions, but we remain cautious about potential short-term volatility surrounding Bailey’s speech. Entry Plan: Should the price reach the lower demand area, we will look for a bullish reversal pattern to confirm a possible long entry. Stop Loss: Set a tight stop loss below the demand area to manage risk effectively. Target: Aim for a near-term rebound toward the intermediate resistance levels if a bullish setup materializes. Final Thoughts: Potential for Short-Term Volatility With Bailey’s speech potentially influencing the short-term direction of GBP, traders should be prepared for volatility. If the BoE Governor strikes a dovish tone, it could fuel further selling pressure on the Pound, aligning with our bearish bias. However, the overbought condition of the DXY and the building long positions by institutional traders suggest that a rebound could be on the horizon, particularly near the lower demand area. As always, it is crucial to exercise patience and wait for clear signals before entering trades, especially in a market driven by central bank communication and evolving sentiment. Stay alert for any surprises from Bailey’s speech and be ready to adapt to changing market dynamics. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Takes HitMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Takes Hit GBP/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.3200 zone. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today - The British Pound started a major decline from the 1.3400 resistance zone. - There was a break above a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.3000 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen. GBP/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to continue higher above the 1.3400 resistance zone. The British Pound started a downside correction and traded below the 1.3200 support zone against the US Dollar. The pair even traded below 1.3040 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2975 level. A low was formed at 1.2973 and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3102 swing high to the 1.2973 low. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.3000. Immediate resistance on the upside is 1.3040 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3102 swing high to the 1.2973 low. The first major resistance is near the 1.3075 zone. The main hurdle sits at 1.3100. A close above the 1.3100 resistance might spark a steady upward move. The next major resistance is near the 1.3180 zone. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.3220 resistance in the near term. Initial support on the GBP/USD chart sits at 1.3000. The next major support sits at 1.2975, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2900. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 1.7% source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 1.7% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in each of the previous two months and forecasts of 1.9%. The largest downward contribution came from transport (-2.2% vs 1.3%), namely air fares and motor fuels. Fares usually reduce in price between August and September, but this year this was the fifth largest fall since monthly data began in 2001. Also, the average price of petrol fell to 136.8 pence per litre compared to 153.6 pence per litre in September 2023. In addition, prices continued to fall for housing and utilities (-1.7% vs -1.6%) and furniture and household equipment (-1% vs -1.3%) and cost rose less for recreation and culture (3.8% vs 4%) and restaurants and hotels (4.1% vs 4.3%). Meanwhile, services inflation slowed to 4.9%, the lowest since May 2022, from 5.6% in August. On the other hand, the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.9% vs 1.3%).
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Pound Falls After Inflation ReportPound Falls After Inflation Report The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for the UK was released today, showing that inflation is decreasing at a faster rate than analysts had predicted. According to data from ForexFactory: → Yearly CPI: actual = 1.7%, forecast = 1.9%, previous = 2.2%; → Yearly Core CPI: actual = 3.2%, forecast = 3.4%, previous = 3.6%. The currency market responded with a decline in the pound sterling against other currencies. Traders likely assume that the Bank of England now has stronger reasons to consider easing its current monetary policy, aimed at curbing inflation. Specifically, the GBP/USD rate fell to its lowest in nearly two months. Technical analysis of the GBP/USD chart shows that: → The price dropped below the psychological level of 1.3000; → It fell beneath the lower boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue), which had been relevant since May 2024. Resistance could be expected after breaking this line. Bearish momentum may extend into the US trading session. It is possible that the GBP/USD rate could drop further to 1.2900, where the lower boundary of a developing descending channel is becoming clearer on the GBP/USD chart today. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2