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Trend-lines mid-target box & Oil will riseTrend-lines of support & resistance 3 sets of converging trend-lines for 3 possible future prices: 148 High, 128 Mid, 58 Low If oil demand rises (which seems likely because of global conflicts), a logical target price lies within 118 (long term trend-line support) to 136p (Austin's buy price). The Saudis said they could hold on for a year before cutting production, so the 136p lies in October 2015. The Mid trend lines converge in june at ~128. Converging trend-lines from old (2008 to 2013) resistance and support point toward 58 in November 2015 Converging trend-lines from recent (since jan 2013) resistance and support point toward 148 in April 2015 Target: Anything from 118 to 136 (if oil price rises) - Notice that I've added some oil futures for comparison. Why crude oil will rise: 1. China's hoarding strategy due to global conflicts & perceived US threat to it's sovereignty. 2. Russia, Saudi Arabia & OPEC can't afford cheap oil due to trade deficits & debt. 3. Indian demand due to "100 smart cities" construction program Russia's economy is poorly, so they're desperate to sell unprofitable oil company stakes to China. www.businessinsider.com.au China is aiming for a 500m bbl oil reserve (just in case) , so they there will be sustained demand. nationalinterest.org Record 21m bbl purchased by one Chinese oil trader in October www.bloomberg.com 16m bbl capacity storage base in Hainan just opened: www.reuters.com 4.57m bbl extra processing capacity in development by 2022 IEA forecast: 11.1m bbl/day China consumption for 2014 Q4 www.eia.gov Desperate Russia considers lowering output to drive up crude: www.bloomberg.com Saudi deficit may decide production cut timetable: muftah.org India is importing nearly 80% of its crude oil consumption: computer.financialexpress.com 93.55m bbl/day world consumption in 2014 Q4 93.62m bbl/day world production in 2014 Q3 94.2 bbl/day in October 92.4m av bbl/day world consumption 2014 Q1-Q4 94.22m bbl/day world consumption expected in 2015 Q3 94.69m bbl/day world consumption expected in 2015 Q4 www.iea.org
ILong
by SpiritOSocrates