#silver#commodities
SILVER, very bullish outlookHello everyone,
I like to provide you a detailed elliot wave analysis on silver. In my opinion we are in the middle of a higher degree fifth wave. The elliot wave rules I use:
Standard:
- Wave 3 has to be the longest
- Wave 4 can not overlap with wave 1
Advanced:
- Target levels are 1,5 to 1,618 (wave 3) and 2.272 to 2.618 (wave 5)
- Wave 3 needs to show a change of character to wave 1 (usually steeper)
SILVER Massive Run Coming (Timeframe 1-7 years)
I think TVC:SILVER might be preparing for a Massive Breakout from a 45 YEAR consolidation period. This will happen gradually over the next few years. I think current prices are great for getting in to this. I have been buying up silver weekly for the last 2 months on Revolut as an auto-purchase, and will continue to do so. GOLD has had its breakout already. Silver will follow.
Here's the macro to my theory:
Industrial Demand Boom: With the rapid expansion of green technologies, especially solar panels and electric vehicles, the demand for silver over the next years is set to skyrocket. Silver’s unique properties make it indispensable in these growing industries.
Economic Uncertainty: Amidst global economic volatility and geopolitical tensions, silver remains a reliable safe-haven asset. As investors seek refuge from market turbulence, silver will shine as a go-to investment.
Inflation Hedge: With inflationary pressures mounting globally, silver offers an excellent hedge. Its intrinsic value and historical performance during inflationary periods make it a must-have in any portfolio.
Supply Constraints: Mining and production challenges are limiting silver supply, creating a perfect supply-demand imbalance. This constraint will drive prices higher as demand outpaces supply.
Technological Advances: Innovations in medical technology and electronics continue to find new uses for silver, further increasing its demand.
📈 Technical Analysis: Chart patterns are indicating a very bullish trend. Text book 45 year cup and handle formation, Ascending Triangle with strong support levels and upward momentum. Silver is breaking out of long-term resistance zones, setting the stage for an explosive upward move.
💡 Investor Sentiment: Sentiment is turning overwhelmingly positive. Market analysts and experts are predicting a significant price surge, with some forecasting silver reaching unprecedented highs. ($100-200)
Silver breaking out of its consolidationSilver is breaking out its long term consolidation and triggering a bullish reversed Head & Shoulder pattern with a target in the $42.50 area.
Next resistances at the all time high near $50 then the line linking the top of the channel near $53.
A break below $23.50 would invalidate this view.
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With gold and copper making all time highs, the governments and central banks printing money like crazy, it's hard to believe that Silver won't catch up and eventually make new all time highs.
Sanity Check: Channeling Silver's Recent (+ not so recent) MovesChannels are an incredible tool for technical analysis. Today we're going to put them to the test with the recent moves up in silver, as it looks like the precious metal is currently sitting at a decision point that can (still) go either way.
MEASURING IMPLICATIONS OF CHANNELS
The real power of channeling is greater than just working with a supportive/resistive trend line; there are measuring implications that are often remarkably accurate in forecasting. Once a (valid) channel is broken, tested, and confirmed to have broken, the subsequent move is usually between .5-1.0 the width of the broken channel. You can think of that .5 level as a micro channel within a channel.
Depending on this week's close outside of the bullish channel, we can safely say the weight of evidence lies in favor of bullish continuation. If that does indeed materialize, silver could have an incredible run just around the corner, especially as markets continue to price out cuts.
**Two partial retraces are circled to illustrate their significance in indicating a faltering channel. Important to note that the first circle (the bearish partial retrace) is only useful in hindsight, as the uppermost channel was not valid at the time.
XAGUSD Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, In the current trading session, our focus lies on monitoring XAGUSD for a potential buying opportunity within the 24.15 zone. Silver, having previously exhibited a downtrend, has effectively surpassed this trend, prompting our attention. Presently, we are awaiting a corrective phase to assess the likelihood of a retracement in the direction of higher levels in the market trend.
Trade safe, Joe.
TradePlus-Fx|GOLD: wait for support💬 Description: The metal is trading below 1948.160 , where the price was after testing the previous price area (balance), thereby confirming our assumptions about the strength of the seller. All the current downward movement is taking place as part of a correction, which is likely to continue in the first half of this week.
The nearest support is located at the level of 1919.235 , where we actually expect the price. The area around this level may serve as a reversal of the correction, and on a global scale, we will continue to grow. Here, we can once again test the level of 2000 . But we need to look at all this after the fact. At the moment, we expect a fall to 1919.235 .
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XAGUSDXAGUSD is repeating the same pattern.
In late September silver created the same pattern , formed strong support level and once loss that support , there were some red days for silver bulls.
Now silver again forming support zone in same area of value, if it again loss this level, then are we expecting red days for silver again ?
Gold in a bottoming areaAs you can see, gold in severly oversold. It has an very low RSI turning up, and finally a green candle forming after many red downward candles. Looks likely it will bottom around this area and probably head back up to the previous support level which is around 1913.
Of course, it could go up only a little and make another lower dip, but I doubt it.
Silver Breaking down: Symmetrical TriangleSilver (US$/Oz) Breaking drown from a long term support trendline (22.197 levels).
Crucial support levels to look for : 21.376, 20.7-20.52 and worst case 19.945. Although if macro factors support we can see a demand uprise and a subsequent pull back to 21.376 and rally upto previous long term trendline levels.
BluetonaFX - SILVER 26 Level Next TargetHi Traders!
There is strong resistance on Silver at the psychological 25 level. After the ascending channel break, there was a bullish wave towards the 25 level, and we now have a big slowdown in the bullish momentum.
Looking at the price action on the chart, the market looks like it wants to break the 25 level to target our long-term resistance level at 26.129, primarily due to the lack of any current pullbacks. However, we may need a new wave of bulls to achieve this.
That being said, the longer the 25 level holds, the more chance we have of getting a pullback to test the 24 level as support. If we get a momentum break and close above 25, then 26.129 is the next key level; there was a double top at this level in May 2023.
Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support helps us greatly.
Thank you for your support.
BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - SILVER Potential Double Top OpportunityHi Traders!
There is a potential double top pattern forming on the Silver 4H chart. This depends on the very important level on the chart, which is 23.091.
Originally, we had a price rejection at 23.091, which we marked on the chart. The price rejection formed a price channel to the downside; there was then a break of this channel in an attempt to re-test 23.091, and we have found resistance again near this level.
If 23.091 holds again, the chart pattern will become a double top pattern, which is bearish. If there is a momentum break and a close above 23.091, the potential double top will be broken, and then there are long-term levels to the upside. We have a calculated long-term Vector level of 24.205.
There are opportunities for possible entries near 23.091, or another option is to wait either for a confirmation sign of a breakout or a reversal. There are great risk-reward opportunities for both options.
Please remember to like, comment, and follow us, as your support greatly helps us.
Thank you for your support.
BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - SILVER Support Break OpportunityHi Traders!
We have spotted a potential support break opportunity on the Silver 1D chart. The price action suggests that the market may want to go down to test further levels below. After a double top resistance at 26.129, there was a pullback into a price channel break, and then the market found support at 22.117. There was then a falling three methods candle formation, which is a bearish candlestick pattern.
We are looking for a break and a close below 22.117; if we get this, then we have a first target at 21.500 and a second target at 20.787.
If we do get a break and close below 22.117, then there are buying opportunities just above this level to target the long-term 26.129 resistance.
Please remember to like, follow, and comment to support us.
Your support is appreciated.
BluetonaFX
XAUUSD-06/23/2023Preferred direction: Neutral
Comment: The sell-idea by 1900 is working out very well, and the approach to this level in the short term is highly likely. In the case of holding shorts, you should at least move to breakeven. For longs - you can gradually gain, or wait for the approach to 1900 and buy more aggressively.
Thank you for like and share your views!
🔥 Bitcoin = Digital Gold - More selling Ahead?Bitcoin has often been described as digital gold, even though the price has more closely followed the stock market. However, BTC has closely been following Gold since Sillicon Valley Bank went insolvent.
In my view, this has to do with the fact that people are hedging themselves against further banking crises and potentially losing large parts of their investments. Since Gold is highly liquid rare mineral which is always in demand, it makes a popular hedging product. Same goes for Bitcoin. Limited supply, highly liquid and great potential future growth.
I'm going to look at Gold for a while to try to predict Bitcoin's price action. Main question remains, for how long will BTC follow Gold? My best guess is that it will follow Gold until the banking sector is safe.
Do you think Bitcoin = Digital Gold? Share your thoughts.
GOLD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISIt will be a risky week for Gold investors with several high-impact macroeconomic data releases from the US and the Fed’s policy announcements carrying the potential to trigger wild fluctuations.
At the beginning of the week, NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI from China will be watched closely by market participants. In case the PMI surveys point to an ongoing expansion in China, the world’s biggest gold consumer’s, business activity, XAU/USD is likely to keep its footing. In case one of those PMIs drop below 50 unexpectedly, Gold price could edge lower in the near term.
On Monday, the US economic docket will feature the ISM Manufacturing PMI for April, which is unlikely to have a noticeable impact on the USD’s valuation. On Wednesday, the ISM Services PMI survey and the ADP’s private sector employment report should be ignored by investors ahead of the Fed’s policy decisions.
The US central bank is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 bps to the range of 5%-5.25% following the May policy meeting. If the policy statement or FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell says that the Fed will pause its hiking cycle to reassess the economic situation, the immediate reaction is likely to weigh on US yields and open the door for a rally in XAU/USD. However, Powell could reiterate that they don’t intend to lower the policy rate for the remainder of the year and explain that a pause in tightening does not necessarily mean that they can’t go back to hikes if they were to see the need for it. In that scenario, XAU/USD could reverse its direction even if it spikes higher initially.
Markets will also pay attention to Powell’s comments on the financing situation. After the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, Powell said that the monetary policy has to be tight enough to bring down inflation but noted that some of that tightness could come from credit conditions. In case the Fed says that they don’t see any significant tightening in lending, that could be seen as a hawkish remark and help the USD gather strength and vice versa.
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the April jobs report. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are forecast to increase by 181,000 following March’s 236,000 growth. Wage inflation, as measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, is expected to edge higher to 4.4% on a yearly basis from 4.2%. Generally, a stronger-than-expected increase in NFP, especially if it’s accompanied by a strong wage inflation reading, should have a positive impact on the USD’s valuation and hurt XAU/USD. On the other hand, a NFP reading close to 100,000 or lower should have the opposite effect on the pair.
Having said all of that, it’s worth noting that it will not be easy to navigate through next week’s events. It could be a good idea to monitor the action in the US Treasury bond yields to have a more clear view of the bigger picture. The 10-year US T-bond yield has been fluctuating between 3.3% and 3.6% since the Fed’s March policy meeting. A move outside of this range could provide a directional clue for Gold price due to its strong inverse correlation with yields.
GOLD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISIt will be a risky week for Gold investors with several high-impact macroeconomic data releases from the US and the Fed’s policy announcements carrying the potential to trigger wild fluctuations.
At the beginning of the week, NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI from China will be watched closely by market participants. In case the PMI surveys point to an ongoing expansion in China, the world’s biggest gold consumer’s, business activity, XAU/USD is likely to keep its footing. In case one of those PMIs drop below 50 unexpectedly, Gold price could edge lower in the near term.
On Monday, the US economic docket will feature the ISM Manufacturing PMI for April, which is unlikely to have a noticeable impact on the USD’s valuation. On Wednesday, the ISM Services PMI survey and the ADP’s private sector employment report should be ignored by investors ahead of the Fed’s policy decisions.
The US central bank is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 bps to the range of 5%-5.25% following the May policy meeting. If the policy statement or FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell says that the Fed will pause its hiking cycle to reassess the economic situation, the immediate reaction is likely to weigh on US yields and open the door for a rally in XAU/USD. However, Powell could reiterate that they don’t intend to lower the policy rate for the remainder of the year and explain that a pause in tightening does not necessarily mean that they can’t go back to hikes if they were to see the need for it. In that scenario, XAU/USD could reverse its direction even if it spikes higher initially.
Markets will also pay attention to Powell’s comments on the financing situation. After the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, Powell said that the monetary policy has to be tight enough to bring down inflation but noted that some of that tightness could come from credit conditions. In case the Fed says that they don’t see any significant tightening in lending, that could be seen as a hawkish remark and help the USD gather strength and vice versa.
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the April jobs report. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are forecast to increase by 181,000 following March’s 236,000 growth. Wage inflation, as measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, is expected to edge higher to 4.4% on a yearly basis from 4.2%. Generally, a stronger-than-expected increase in NFP, especially if it’s accompanied by a strong wage inflation reading, should have a positive impact on the USD’s valuation and hurt XAU/USD. On the other hand, a NFP reading close to 100,000 or lower should have the opposite effect on the pair.
Having said all of that, it’s worth noting that it will not be easy to navigate through next week’s events. It could be a good idea to monitor the action in the US Treasury bond yields to have a more clear view of the bigger picture. The 10-year US T-bond yield has been fluctuating between 3.3% and 3.6% since the Fed’s March policy meeting. A move outside of this range could provide a directional clue for Gold price due to its strong inverse correlation with yields.