TLT: Uptrend's doneIt would appear like the uptrend that had started a while back has ended.
I posted a few charts, and succesfully tracked all the moves in this instrument. This is a testament to Tim West's analytical methodology, which I humbly apply.
This is coherent with my intermarket analysis publication's expected outcome of the recent fundamental paradigm shift that made these new trends emerge.
A short under yesterday's low, with a stop at the high would be a good start.
It's possible that there is a very pronounced gap down today, so, if trading intraday, it might actually be a long, to try to capture a retracement back to resistance above, but ultimately I think that the direction is down, and fast.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee.
I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
$collective2
DIA: Aiming higher it would appearThe chart shows a time at mode trend signal that aims considerably higher, but there are hurdles along the way.
It might be interesting to short once the resistances labeled on chart are reached, but only under the highest low.
We can also attempt to capture shorter timeframe legs, up and down, using the 65 minute chart for example.
It's clear that the broad risk on rally theme is back on track, question is for how long will it last?
The uptrend signal expires by November 9.
Let's see how it goes.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee.
I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
USDMXN: Daily time at mode downtrendWe have a variety of 4h signals in this pair, which yield excellent results to the vigilant.
In the daily a considerably large downtrend signal is about to confirm.
I have entered a daily trade ahead of confirmation. You can enter now, before it's confirmed, because I think the weight of the evidence supports its success.
As many know, I was working for a brokerage firm, briefly, but they had legal problems, so for the time being I'll go back to trading my own account only. I will continue to host webinars, and sell signals, and provide people with free and paid insights.
If you're interested, contact me for more details. I'm running a trading room skype group, where I aim to train and coordinate a group of FX and indices/metals/energy CFD traders to increase our profitable trade count, as well as providing one on one skype coaching sessions.
Good luck if taking this one.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
LTCUSD: Buy stop above resistanceHere we have an interesting setup. We can attempt to go long if LTCUSD breaks above the resistance, expanding this week's range.
A stop loss at 2.969 and a target at 3.819 gives us a very nice risk to reward ratio.
Rgmov indicates trend is up, and we have a weekly downtrend that has expired, triggering a range expansion up bar.
After more than 5 weeks without new lows, volatility is very low, which is the right enviroment for a breakout trade, which also aims to capture the move when LTC catches up with BTC, in dollar terms.
If you are a LTC holder, once the target's hit, you can sell your Litecoins for dollar AND sell short with margin.
Good luck if taking it. Make sure to check out Tim West's "Key Hidden Levels" chatroom for more trade setups and insightful discussion with other traders and with Tim himself.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee.
I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
EURUSD: Massive uptrend failureIn my previous analysis I was looking for uptrend continuation after price confirmed a weekly uptrend using time at mode.
This pair had been coiling very tightly until it broke up initially, but the follow through has shown the power of the bears.
After Mario Draghi's speech, evidently we had a lapsus of complete agreement between market participants, a paradigm shift of massive scale, which led to a relentless selloff under all support levels. There simply were no buy orders to even execute stop losses for some time.
Many people are seeing patterns, wave analysis, fibonacci support, Gann lines, and all sort of technical tools that tell them to buy the Euro down here. In my case, I don't subscribe to any of these, but with my own tools I can define a series of targets, which posess a relatively moderate probability of attainment, and also of reversal or retracement once hit.
Time at mode works specially well after extended consolidations, with lower and lower volatility, which is what we had in the weekly chart here, so I'd grade these lower targets with a considerable probability of being achieved during this year.
I will be hosting a free webinar this week, to introduce traders to the techniques that I am using, which are the fruiton of Tim West's mentoring, as well as my own experience with them in the Forex space, which has its own characteristics and challenges. One of them being the reduced liquidity of certain crosses, and the problems this creates when using more standard 'diagonal type' thinking, like wave analysis. I will discuss how market types affect systems' performance, and what the 'Holy Grail' of trading Forex really is. It will surprise many to know the answer to this.
Stay tuned for more details on how to join it.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom.
All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers.
Contact me via skype or pm for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
Intermarket analysis: Paradigm shiftI was considering two alternative scenarios for the market. Initially I thought the Euro rally and equities meltdown had more merit, but after close scrutiny and being stopped out and thus having my EURUSD and USDCHF long and short invalidated, I realized that the appetite for risk was evident, had I looked at it without weighing in my risk off rally thesis so heavily.
After I noticed that NZD and AUD could have bottomed, I published bullish charts for AUDUSD and NZDUSD. These, on a correlational basis, conflicted with my Euro rally thesis, which involved equities taking a turn south for the rest of the year, potentially well into 2016, when monetary policy adjustments would have become a concern again.
This also implied that oil would have turned south, which was conflicting with an anti dollar rally of a large scale.
Evidently, someone is heavily buying commodities, with gold leading the pack in terms of relative strength.
The dollar remains weak nevertheless, don't let the Euro meltdown confuse you. On a relative strength basis, my analysis on the XAUUSD/DXY ratio is still valid, and lays a very strong case against broad scale deflationary woes.
The dollar isn't rallying against AUD or NZD, like it has happened in the past. These commodity currencies are offering very clear signs of strength, and tempting longs on evidently imbalanced crosses if you know where to look.
For now, my view is that we will see equities rally, crude not falling or rallying as well, gold and all the commodities commercials are long on rallying, and potentially very interesting trades in eur and jpy crosses. Pairing weak with strong makes for very sharp moves, so keep this in mind and experiment with ratio charts, and studies in correlation by yourself.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee.
I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
USDJPY: UpdateHere's my updated view on USDJPY.
We have a few interesting resistance levels ahead, but overall, the pair is looking up, receiving a strong boost thanks to Mr. Mario Draghi's magic words, and the Nikkei rally before it.
Low volume resistance at 121.7 may halt the advance, keep that in mind.
I'm in other related trades, I'll try to balance these positions by trading NZDUSD, AUDUSD, and USDCAD.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee.
I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
USDJPY: Neutral but volatile, Rgmov implies downIn my last chart I analyzed the profile chart in the weekly.
In this installment I depict the interesting levels to monitor in the daily chart .
We have a weekly downtrend expiring on Friday, this is bullish for this pair since it implies that it's possible to retest the mode from where the 10 week downtrend launched, at 124.221.
If we manage to move above 120.084, and break the successive hurdles above, we might be in for a very good risk to reward long trade. Personally, I will wait to short the top, since I'm already long GBPJPY, and I don't want to go long here since it would be redundant.
If this week closes above the mode, we could look for the targets above for potential reversal zones, or each of the low volume resistance levels in light blue, or the range expansion resistance zones in gray.
Entry short would demand an ATR stop, 1.5-3 atr in the daily should suffice, or using the highest high as stop and short under the highest low. Both would work well, potentially. Initial target for a short once the rally is done is a retest of the mode below, and if it crosses down, we might get a new 10 week signal from a lower price, which is very bearish , and would materialize next week if we see range expansion down compared to this week's range, or the next week to that if it detaches from the then lower mode, or expands range as well.
I'll keep updating this chart from now on, good luck.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee.
I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
NZDJPY: At a critical junctureNZDJPY had a potential short setup under resistance but it's proven to a very strong advance so far.
I'd like to see price move and close above the new 8 bar mode that it has built higher, and eventually signal a time at mode trend trade. The risk/reward of said long would be optimal if price manages to climb above the resistance, and validates the weekly forecast, which implies targets as high as 86.52 or even 88.96.
See the weekly chart below to better illustrate the current scenario:
Currently, buyers have stepped in at the range expansion support level signaled on chart, and rgmov is in a daily uptrend, so my bias is still long.
It's very hard, emotionally, to buy into strength, but if NZDJPY proves it can break the resistance above, this would be a very compelling trade as to miss it.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee.
I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
NIKKEI: UPDATEIn my previous idea I located the key levels on chart, and was biased towards a short.
Recently, it started being obvious that the Yen was weakening, so I decided to go long GBPJPY.
I still think the dollar will remain weak for the rest of the year, possibly until June 2016, nothing has changed, but the
Nikkei is implying that it will rally asap. Tim West's recent publication clearly depicts how the stage was set up for a rally, so I'll limit myself to expand the analysis with a few more details of interest that are worth noting. I include the ichimoku indicator on chart, because it's a very highly regarded tool among japanese traders, and many pro traders as well.
It's good to contrast our own analysis with other tools from time to time.
The weekly time at mode downtrend target has been exceeded, and now, time has expired. This implies the Nikkei has a low probability of retesting the mode from where the downtrend launched, at the 20385 mark, in 9 weeks or less.
The daily chart is giving confirmation of a bullish time at mode trend signal today, which aims for the top of the kumo resistance. Interestingly enough, the lagging line, which is part of the ichimoku suite, sits above price, 26 bars back from today. This implies that it's possible for price to cross the cloud resistance and meet with the mode above, or beyond.
Good luck if going long, keep in mind rgmov is in a downtrend in the daily, so I'd still would look into fading the target hit, or the resistances above, or even short under the highest daily low after overbought spikes.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee.
I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
Dollar adjusted Gold: In depth time at mode analysisIn this chart I conducted a very detailed time at mode analysis of the monthly chart in gold, adjusted by the world's investor's perception of the dollar to give us a clearer indication of its value.
Right now, the chart suggests gold might have bottomed in the intermediate to long term.
This is by no means a small claim, I know, but the technicals on chart are a powerful indication of a big paradigm shift here.
I'll look for bearish dollar setups from now on, I suggest you do it too.
Make sure to follow me at collective2, if you're interested of leveraging my technical insights.
Details are in my profile, as well as links to my track record as an analyst, forecaster and trader.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
GBPUSD: Weekly view - Potential for a monster rallyThe Pound is at a make or break level.
It's possible that Rgmov plots new 44 bar highs this week after the close. The advance after price tested low volume support below has been fierce but the lower timeframe uptrend signals have reached targets already.
The level above price right now is a make or break one, where a confluence of technicals reside:
Fibonacci time running out next week. If this move is of the same degree as the fierce advance off the lowest low to the quarterly mode, it must end asap.
This is right at the 0.382 level from the highest high to the low since the last big decline ended. People ARE watching this fibonacci zones, as evidenced by the 50% level rejecting price (this was also a quarterly mode level...most likely this sent it down, but the fib 'was' there too)
If we trace a speed line from each major swing high to swing low, we can see that the major decline one's has been broken up, the next leg up has been broken down, and the last one from current swing high to swing low is right in front of the advance. Will this one break up or will it contain the advance here?
10 period moving average of the highs lies above price right now.
After this week's close, we will have a new uptrend mode, starting from the lowest low. If the week closes above, upside continuation would be probable.
Weekly range expansion resistance. The most recent one is about to be breached, but the previous one lies right above the mode level.
Modified Schiff Pitchfork's upper median line resistance. If we were to use a normal Pitchfork, then it would already have failed to contain price, and we would be looking at a trigger line long signal if this week were to close above it. This is also a significant long term trendline that many people will monitor, and it's about to break.
Inside trendline broken up, this is bullish.
I'll update this thread as we move forward.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Dax: If above 10216.17, short higherSimple analysis on chart.
Made on request.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
EURUSD: Overall, bullish...need more reasons?Analysis on chart. I'll be looking to capture the low, expecting it to get me early on in the rally that will ensue once USOIL breaks out of the contracting triangle, and the Euro Stoxx retracement ends.
It's not yet confirmed, but I think that we will see the move in question start after NFP.
Rgmov is showing interesting bullish strength, hidden amidst the apparently chaotic chart.
Since we're mostly range bound, the logical thing to do is to fade extremes, this just happens to lead into a great trend continuation play, if my analysis is correct.
Do your due diligence and only trade this with a strategy in mind. Mine won't trigger until EURUSD drops some more, so for now I'm short.
I'll keep my followers up to date with the latest trade management cues and intermarket analysis via my Collective2 signals page, link is in my profile.
Good luck,
Ivan.
USDJPY: Big short in the horizonSimilarly to TLT, I expect a rally to emerge today, which if moving past the trigger level at 122.545 will lead to an advance into the 124.096 to 126.042 area.
I'll attempt shorting the first target with a tight stop, and if stopped I'll wait to short it higher. It's unlikely to see the 2nd target hit, since the 1st one sits right below the 8 week downtrend mode from where the very sharp decline launched, making this an area of high probability for a reversal.
Remember to follow me at collective2 for live trade updates and to receive my Monday, Wednesday and Friday newsletter with detailed intermarket analysis. Currently, I decided to charge $20 per month, until I reach 30 subs. Once that happens, I'll charge $40 per month. So, being within the first 30, you'd be a 'founding member' of the "Time at Mode FX" crew. I placed a link in my profile containing an archive of my forecasting hits in this site, do check it out.
Good luck navigating these murky waters!
Regards,
Ivan.
MSFT: Shorting the euphoriaHere we have a very interesting short setup. The market drove price up near a very strong resistance zone, so I'm willing to take a stab at a short position in this zone. A very low risk entry, aiming for a retest of the 20 bar mode at 43.48 initially, our stop loss can be minimal, with very low probability of it being hit before our profit target is.
Setup is simply technical, do your due diligence if taking this trade, you can use 1 atr above the resistance at 46.70 or a few ticks, up to you.
I provide trade management cues, live updates and intermarket analysis via my collective2 page, which you can find in my profile here.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Nikkei: Fade overbought ralliesNikkei is consolidating forming a bell curve, if you look at the profile shape from the low.
The weekly downtrend that fired in August has now expired, which means there's a possibility that price goes up to retest the downtrend mode.
I see this as improbable and would suggest looking for shorts once the targets on chart are hit, or the low volume resistance zones tested.
The last daily leg implies further upside, but rgmov is at abysmal levels and forms new lows, so, it's possible that this move fails and it heads down from here.
If that were the case, next week we will have a new mode, lower, so we could look for time at mode trend signals, which would more or less imply the Nikkei will travel down to test previous support levels.
Once we have clarity here, we will know wether to consider Yen longs or not. For the time being, I'd only try short term swing trades in the yen pairs.
Regards,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
USDCHF: SNB might suprise everyone again...soonI'll be entering shorts this week before the close, the potential is very good, even if only the 'local' trend signal goes in effect and hits the target.
If this trend signal works, a larger 18 week decline will become valid, and we could expect a very sharp drop towards 0.75972. This is also illustrated by a modified Schiff Pitchfork that I drew using key highest low and lowest high pivots.
You could use traditional highs and lows too, but I find the highest lows and lowest highs more telling, since they reveal what the last bastion of the buyers or sellers was in each leg. A very good idea derived from Tim West's teachings.
Fundamentals are bearish for the dollar, and we also have the commercial futures traders on our side, on this and the Euro longs, so I think this setup is of considerably high probability.
Should you take it, good luck!
We'll need it when dealing with the SNB bag of tricks.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
AUDUSD: Long a retracement if offeredAUDUSD seems to be reversing the long term downtrend that started in July 2014.
There's only one week left in the largest mode's signal, and after exceeding the target, price formed a double bottom, and we observed a very strong rally emerge after its completion.
I'll be placing pending long orders here, similarly to NZDUSD, to try and capture the uptrend if it were to materialize.
If I don't get a fill, then I'll have to look for different entries.
Good luck, and remember to check out my signals page at collective2.com.
I offer live updates and trade management cues to minimize risk and maximize profits.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
NZDUSD: Downtrend's doneOctober marks month 6 of a very strong downtrend in the Kiwi.
We have many technicals, as well as interesting fundamentals suggesting dollar weakness for the rest of 2015, perhaps extending into June 2016. This fits in with the probability of retesting the mode in the coming 6 months this chart presents.
Currently, we have a weekly uptrend target on chart, and a nice range expansion week, so we can look to go long on retracements, shall we get a chance next week.
If you want to receive my live updates and trade reccomendations for all the setups that I find, make sure to follow me at collective2, check my profile for details.
Regards,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
EURCAD: Pending long now - swing trade until year endAnalysis on chart, I think this is a very good long setup and high probability of success.
If we get stopped we can try a bit lower with a stop at the monthly mode, but I'll try a tighter stop first.
Targets:
1.50165 - 75% confidence of retesting it
1.65801 - 60% confidence
1.72 - 55% confidence
Good luck gents!
Ivan Labrie
Time at mode FX
