16/12/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $106,649.88
Last weeks low: $94,177.33
Midpoint: $100,413.61
A new ATH for BTC last week as we saw $106K for the first time, truly amazing price action since the Trump election win. NASDAQ:MSTR , IBIT and other massive institutions are continuing to buy with more companies having rumoured to add BTC to their balance sheet, demand is strong and does not seem to be going away as we go into the end of the quarter/year.
This week we have many different data releases from the UK, US & ECB. Naturally volatility is expected around these events, it also makes traders a little tentative to enter into trades, I would say this is more accurate during bear markets/ choppy conditions. Right now we're in a strong Bullrun and therefor the momentum is less news data driven and more a race for institutional buying, It's a given at this point that we're in a period of rate cuts and so that is factored into price.
Altcoins have seen a recent pullback despite BTC pushing higher, this is as a result of the BTC.D chart tanking when alts took the liquidity from BTC profits and so dominance did see a correction. This latest BTC move up while alts are down is just a continuation of BTC.D continuing its surge as it always does in the Bullrun before the true altseason where alts outpace BTC after a blow-off top.
This week I'd like to see BTC come through data events unscathed with altcoins bouncing off the 4H 200EMAs and starting the next leg up going into year end.
1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin Ascending Bullflag Breakout Target 140kI am still expecting significant resistance in the 120-130k range so to see this having a full target of 140k is pretty wild to me. Perhaps we have. Correction before reaching its full breakout target, or perhaps price sends a large wick above the resistance up there to hit this target before that resistance rejects price for a significant correction. Either way I do anticipate we rise to at least 120k on this next move up. *not financial advice*
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Bitcoin preparing for the next move!Bitcoin is currently consolidating in an ascending parallel channel after a very sharp rally.
The most likely scenario is that it will remain in this channel for a while longer, until it ends up breaking up with the approach of Trump's presidency.
If it breaks the channel downwards, there are chances of a slightly deeper correction, and we could visit US$90K.
BTC New All time High and Sentiment IndicatorYesterday was a perfect day where our sentiment cycle indicator was able to capture bull momentum, bearish momentum, and sideways market as well. area in green, yesterday's pump you can see it was in green at level 1,03,252. It started the bull momentum, we got the signal, and the high was of 3,405 points. And then after that it was sideways as I have highlighted. And then we got a sell signal at 1,05,210. And just now 15 minutes back, it has exited the sell signal. And this move is off. Max it was 1,700 points. So yeah, that was the only reason for creating this indicator to help us show the bullish or bearish momentum and also the sideways areas where we can avoid new trades. As long as it is without any color, it is sideways. It only gets us the sentiment, either bullish or bearish sentiment signals.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-16: Inside BreakawayThis video highlights what I believe will be a rotating topping pattern setting up in the SPY/QQQ over the next 3-4+ days.
Traders should move away from risk headed into Christmas and the end of 2024.
Gold and Silver will likely make a move higher over the next 5+ days - attempting to recover lost ground from last week's selling.
Bitcoin rallied to key resistance and will likely move into a consolidated range (again).
This is the time to pull capital away from risks and sit tight through the Inauguration. I believe we'll be seeing lots of day trading opportunities with volatility - but I also believe the markets are setup for a downward price swing headed into the Inauguration.
Buckle up.
Get some.
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TIA daily chart idea
really nice bottoming structure as we retrace to the local Weekly FVG
have a HTF bat harmonic that is starting to play out & a MTF cypher which already ran
looking for continuation here from Weekly FVG below + retest of ice line at 5.75
could wait for H4 shift back to upside to look to get involved
TIA daily chart idea
really nice bottoming structure as we retrace to the local Weekly FVG
have a HTF bat harmonic that is starting to play out & a MTF cypher which already ran
looking for continuation here from Weekly FVG below + retest of ice line at 5.75
could wait for H4 shift back to upside to look to get involved
BITCOIN - Time to buy again!As you can see, the price is in an ascending triangle, which could lead to significant growth after the breakout.
Give me some energy !!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BTCUSDT 4h-8h long updatelast BTC idea was a succes check it out for reference. we managed to find good support on the SND after some bloody absorption which made me take a nice and easy 2rr trade. it might not seem much to some of you but this is how real trading goes. actual analysis, actual trading rules, actual entry criteria and a good amount of backtest data to back it up. this is what makes a profitable trader. I tried to look for a re-entry on the second SND touch but it didnt match my entry criteria so i sat on my hands.
I'll be looking for new trades now since another big MB was formed which needs to be mitigated ofcourse.
Bitcoin: the demand holdsBTC had a relatively mixed week, but was traded around some positive news. Namely, the CEO of BlackRock, the largest investment company in the US, expressed his opinion that an optimised portfolio should contain up to 10% exposure in BTC. This is how BlackRock is advising its clients. Still, BTC started the week in a negative sentiment, reaching its lowest weekly level at $94.565. A positive sentiment returned to the market, so the BTC headed back toward levels above the $100K.
The RSI continues to move within a highly overbought territory, easing a bit till the level of 62. A clear reversal path has still not started, which is postponed due to strong demand for this coin, in the post-election period. The MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, without any indication of a potential slowdown in the coming period.
As BTC continues to move within the high-demand territory, the technical analysis indicators should be taken with a precaution. It is evident that the BTC will start its reversal at one point in time, but the exact timing is not possible to predict clearly based on technical indicators. The latest move from the $94K levels back to $101K levels shows that there is still hidden demand for the coin, which is waiting for the dip in price in order for cash flow to be moved into BTC. This sentiment will most certainly continue also in the future period. When the high demand for BTC will be exhausted, nobody can predict. However, what is certain is that BTC will continue with its volatility within a relatively short range, between the $95K levels, and back toward the $101K range.
Cocoa vs BTC. Introducing Cocoa Futures Commodities TradingCommodity trading has been booming in recent months and years, as everything from industrial metals to oil, precious metals to soft commodities (coffee, cocoa) is getting hotter.
Last week, coffee futures traded in New York ICEUS:KC1! reached 348 cents per pound of beans, a new historical high, and frozen orange juice concentrate futures ICEUS:OJ1! exceeded the $5 mark for 1 pound, reaching also a new all-time high.
The macroeconomic situation, the continuing geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the overall market volatility caused by these large movements, create a lot of new opportunities.
In addition, the food and environmental crisis sweeping across the planet (a special type of environmental situation when the habitat of one of the species or populations changes in such a way that it calls into question its further existence) is creating extreme bottlenecks in supply chains everywhere, which leads to shortages on the one hand, and a corresponding increase in prices and opportunities on the other.
Both private investors and professional market participants can use Commodities Cocoa Futures to expand the possibilities of investment strategies - hedging risks and profiting from price fluctuations.
For market participants involved in the production and processing of cocoa, futures contracts will allow them to better protect their income from undesirable changes in exchange prices for cocoa beans.
In addition, for those market participants involved in the wholesale purchase of cocoa, futures contracts allow them to better protect their margins from undesirable price fluctuations in exchange prices for cocoa beans, which lead to an increase in purchasing costs.
The underlying asset of the futures is the price of cocoa beans on foreign markets. The contracts reflect the dynamics of the price of cocoa beans supplied from countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America to any of the five delivery ports in the United States.
In fundamental terms, on November 29, 2024, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) raised its estimate of the world cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to -478,000 tonnes from -462,000 tonnes forecast in May, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO also lowered its estimate of cocoa production for 2023/24 to 4.380 million tonnes from 4.461 million tonnes in May, a -13.1% decrease from the previous year. ICCO forecasts world cocoa stocks to be 27.0% in 2023/24, a 46-year low.
Cocoa prices have risen sharply over the past months due to uncertainty about future cocoa supplies. Recent heavy rains in Ivory Coast have led to reports of high mortality of cocoa buds on trees due to heavy rainfall.
Unfavorable weather conditions in West Africa are pushing cocoa prices sharply higher. Heavy rains in Ivory Coast have flooded fields, increased the risk of disease, and affected the quality of the crop. Newly harvested cocoa beans from Ivory Coast are showing lower quality, with quantities of about 105 beans per 100 grams. Ivory Coast regulators allow exporters to purchase quantities of 80 to 100 beans or slightly more per 100 grams.
In other words, West Africa is now exporting at its maximum productive capacity, but the deficit in world reserves remains and is growing.
The arrival of seasonal harmattan winds could also worsen the situation.
Declining global cocoa stocks is also a bullish factor for prices. Cocoa stocks tracked by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at three major US ports (Delaware River Port, Hampton Roads Port and New York Port) have been declining for the past year and a half and fell to a 20-year low of 1,430,974 bags on Friday, December 13, 2024 (down 15 percent over the past month).
Another important factor for prices is the seasonal approach of the Christmas and New Year holidays, especially in the main cocoa consuming regions - the US and Europe.
Cocoa prices on world markets are again returning above $ 10,000 per ton, while crypto fanatics in their manic persistence to get the last unmined bitcoin are ready to burn the planet Earth to hell and only deepen the food and environmental crisis striding across the planet.
The main graph represents a comparison across BTC and Cocoa prices over past several months.
So, what would you like to choose amid of recent rally in both assets - sweet cocoa or binary digits inside your computer?
Or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s talk about it!
Send your thoughts and questions into comment box below to discuss about Cocoa Futures Commodities Trading!
Bitcoin hits a new ATH! Potential for a higher swingBTC/USDT has reached a new all-time high, breaking out of a trend continuation pattern commonly observed in this market. The long-tailed bar on the weekly timeframe indicates potential momentum toward the 115,000 level in the near future. Currently, the market has made an impulsive upward move and is now consolidating sideways. A pullback toward the support zone and upward trendline may precede further upward continuation if rejection candles form, signalling buying pressure. The target resistance zone for this movement is around 108,000
(Spicy) December 12 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
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Above is the Nasdaq 30-minute chart.
There will be an indicator announcement at 10:30 shortly.
*Red finger long position strategy.
The Nasdaq has touched the 30-minute resistance line,
but the 2-hour chart MACD dead cross is in progress,
so I judge that a vertical rise is difficult.
Since it is breaking out of the 30+1 section,
the short-term pattern is breaking a little bit,
but I followed the trend for a strong rise.
As a risk factor,
there is a possibility of being swept away if the orange resistance line above No. 1 is broken, so you should be careful.
Also, since there was no reversal after the vertical rise in CPI yesterday,
an adjustment may come right away, so please take note.
If we just maintain the green support line today,
and move sideways, Bitcoin will be free.
This is the 30-minute Tether Dominance chart.
Since the downward trend is open due to yesterday's movement,
and Bitcoin is in an upward trend,
I tried to enter the short position operation method in reverse.
If it fails to break through the pink resistance line,
it will be a vertical decline,
but if you look at the candle shape on the left,
since a full candle is in place,
the short position entry point is at 3.96%
It is roughly the 30-minute resistance line + the 1-hour chart resistance line.
Since the topmost point is a textbook-like position for a 3.99% short position,
if it fails to break through the red resistance line today,
it seems very likely to fall.
This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
Nasdaq is renewing its all-time high,
but Bitcoin has not yet broken through its all-time high.
Therefore, the possibility of a sweep condition seems low,
and based on the Nasdaq strategy and the Tether Dominance short position entry point,
we proceeded with the strategy with a strong upward condition.
For reference, Bitcoin also touched the center line of the 1-hour Bollinger Band chart alone, so the short-term pattern is broken,
and the 2-hour MACD dead cross pressure is in progress,
so the vertical rise looks low.
Today, the 1+4 section looks dangerous,
and the match was decided at the middle point, the 30-minute support + 1-hour support line of the Bollinger Band pattern.
*Red finger movement path
One-way long position strategy
1. $99780.5 long position entry section / When the green support line is broken
Or when section 2 is touched, stop loss price
2. $103,718 long position 1st target -> Good 2nd target price
If the strategy is successful, section 1 is the long position operation section.
Since it can rise without adjustment,
It seems advantageous to re-enter the long position without operating a short position.
The stop loss price is
The green parallel line support line at the bottom -> sky blue autonomous depending on the remaining drawing.
Since there was no resistance line touch on the 30-minute chart today,
You should be careful because it can end as a slight adjustment or sideways movement in section 1 at the top.
The orange resistance line at the top and the sky blue support line at the bottom
are sideways movement sections.
Section 2 is a textbook short position <-> BIT can be a long position entry point compared to Tether Dominance, which moves in the opposite direction.
If the green support line is maintained today,
it seems that there will be no problem in the upward trend,
and I have drawn the support line and checked the price from below Section 2.
And, I have been giving you a hint recently.
I explained that you don't need to worry too much about BIT movement.
I wonder if you had fun with minor altcoins in the Bitcoin rebound yesterday.
Depending on the movement today,
the sideways movement may continue,
so it would be good to aim for minor altcoins at the same time
until the red resistance line top section is broken -> the new high price is updated.
This was a very spicy hellfire analysis article.
I don't know if you liked it.
I am a person who does it if I have to. The quality can be adjusted as much as I can within my capabilities, so
Please refer to it,
and please use my analysis articles only for reference and use,
and I hope you operate safely with the principle of trading and stop loss.
Thank you always.
Bitcoin: Bitcoin is still above 100,000 dollars!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the failure of the resistance zone(ATH) . After the authentic failure of this area, we will see Bitcoin reach the ceiling of the channel.
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. The target of this downward movement will be the level of 92 thousand dollars.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important.
Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw capital inflows on every single day, recording a total of $2.2 billion in investments.Similarly, Ethereum spot ETFs continued their strong performance from the previous two weeks, accumulating approximately $1 billion in inflows last week, which is a significant amount.
Meanwhile, Microsoft shareholders voted against the proposal to add Bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet during its annual meeting on December 10. The resolution was introduced by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), a free-market think tank based in Washington, D.C., which framed the proposal as a way to provide value to shareholders through profit diversification. However, the shareholders ultimately rejected it.
Daniel Batten, an environmentalist and Bitcoin advocate, claimed that Alex de Vries’ “singular opinion” in 2018, as the founder of Digiconomist, was the foundation for all flawed studies on Bitcoin’s environmental impact. Batten argued that this misinformation has led to widespread misunderstandings among the public, investors, and policymakers, causing Bitcoin to be mistakenly seen as an environmental threat. However, newer studies suggest that many of these claims are incorrect, and Bitcoin could even have environmental benefits. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s energy consumption is not tied to the number of transactions and that the network can exponentially increase transaction volumes without raising emissions.
Robert Kiyosaki, a Bitcoin investor, entrepreneur, and author of the bestselling book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, has once again predicted an imminent major crash and urged his followers to buy Bitcoin before it happens. In his recent tweet, Kiyosaki specifically addressed the Baby Boomer generation, to which he belongs, highlighting that Bitcoin is a new and confusing asset for many in that demographic.
In his tweet, Kiyosaki wrote, “The biggest crash in history is coming. Please act early and get rich.” This warning came as Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark for the first time in history. Earlier this year, Kiyosaki predicted that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by 2025 and as much as $1 million by 2030, citing AI-based forecasts for his projections.
The number of daily active crypto users has reached an all-time high of 18.7 million, a sharp increase from just 7.7 million at the beginning of 2024.
A group of Amazon shareholders, led by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), has suggested that Amazon invest at least 5% of its assets in Bitcoin. They argue that Bitcoin has outperformed most asset classes, including corporate bonds. Notably, MicroStrategy, a company that has integrated Bitcoin into its treasury management, has seen its stock outperform Amazon by a significant 537% over the past year.
Meanwhile, BlackRock recently purchased an additional 3,910 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to approximately 535,000 Bitcoins, valued at $53 billion. As the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock has shifted its focus to Bitcoin and Ethereum while delaying the launch of any new altcoin-based ETFs.
The head of BlackRock’s ETF division stated that the company now aims to expand its existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, given their stellar performance so far.
Additionally, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, hinted at another Bitcoin purchase in a recent tweet. He wrote, “Does saylortracker miss a green dot?” This cryptic message appears to reference yet another significant Bitcoin acquisition by Saylor. Similar messages from him in the past have often preceded announcements of large Bitcoin purchases. For instance, Saylor has previously teased major Bitcoin buys through similar tweets, which were later confirmed.
Nasdaq also announced that the largest Bitcoin-holding company will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index starting December 23.
BTCUSD | Trade ideaBTCUSD is trading weak ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, having hit a low of $55,282 and currently hovering around $55,958.
The number of large investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC has reached a one-month high of 16,120, indicating that whales are buying BTC at lower levels.
BTC ETFs have experienced an outflow of $211 million, marking the seventh consecutive day of withdrawals.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 57% from 70% a week ago.
US Markets:
NASDAQ (negative correlation with BTC): Bearish but neutral for BTC, trading weak ahead of the NFP data. A close above 20,000 could push the index to 20,500.
Technical Analysis:
BTCUSD is trading below the short-term 34-EMA and 55-EMA, as well as the long-term 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating weakness.
On the daily chart, BTC remains below both short- and long-term moving averages, confirming minor weakness.
Support Levels:
Minor support at $54,000. A break below could push BTC to $53,000/$50,000/$46,000.
Bullish Scenario:
Primary supply zone: $57,000. A break above this level could confirm intraday bullish momentum with potential targets of $60,000/$61,800/$63,000/$65,000/$67,000/$70,000.
Secondary barrier: $70,000. A close above could target $75,000/$80,000.
Bullish Patterns and Bitcoin: A Roadmap to $125KAs anticipated by many, following Trump’s election, Bitcoin experienced a significant surge. On November 14th, it encountered its first notable correction during this upward momentum.
In early December, Bitcoin crossed the critical 100k milestone for the first time. However, this achievement was followed by a swift pullback.
Since then, dips have consistently been met with strong buying activity, and as of now, the price has stabilized comfortably above this key psychological level.
The price action since mid-November reveals the formation of an ascending channel, a technical pattern that historically suggests a 70% probability of continuation to the upside.
A decisive breakout above 107k could confirm this bullish scenario, with a measured target for the next leg up around 125k if the pattern fulfills its statistical expectation.
Navigating Bitcoin BTC Bull Market: $120k+ After CorrectionHello, Skyrexians!
Tonight Bitcoin has printed another one leg up and touched our previous final target at $107k without correction. What does it mean? It means that targets for this bull run are going to be much higher. Anyway, the warning sign of correction is about to be flashed. Let's try to understand what is happening!
On the daily time frame we market the Elliott waves. Taking into account the maximum value of Awesome Oscillator (AO) current growth is still wave 3 because price reached new high but divergence on AO has happened without zero line cross. It means that currently BINANCE:BTCUSDT is printing wave 5 inside major 3. The big warning is the potential red dot printed by the Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator , to see the confirmation we need to wait daily close, so everything can be changed. As always, alerts from this indicator are automatically replicated on my accounts. You can find the information in our article on TradingView .
After printing red dot previously we have seen the drops in most of cases, so now it can be wave 4. Wave 4 has the target at 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci level. We suppose that price reach $86k and find support there for the new impulse to the upside. If we assume that wave 3 is finished here and wave 4 will be finished at the pointed out target, the wave 5 has the target zone between $120k and $140k. Anyway, it can be easily recalculated, we will update you with all changes.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
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