$BTC Current Decline Analysis - 2/11/2025CRYPTOCAP:BTC Update:
Wave (e) revealed the pattern (wxy), highlighting the complex structures of waves w and x, which looks like a 'distribution' behavior. This leaves us with a fast pace decline in wave y, targeting a projected level that coincides with wave (e) target of $87,222
#BTC #BTCUSD #Bitcoin CRYPTOCAP:BTC
* This is how I see it, just sharing my view!
Cheers!
1-BTCUSD
BITCOIN short term bearish bias#bitcoin #btc price has been declined from 4H Ema ribbons and ichimoku span resistance. In my previous ideas, i said CRYPTOCAP:BTC has entered distribution zone and the last phase (major sign of weakness) hasn't confirmed, yet but it' s proceeding! Only a new ATH (with not fake movement for only taking liquidations) may invalidate Wyckoff' s distribution schematic #btcusd has been in.
There's a storm on my chartHi everyone,
I see two possibilities.
Blue or Brown ? (we have to see!)
Technical Section:
The Blue Path: S&P500 is completing the fifth wave of the 5th wave of a five-wave rally.
Wave 5 = 2.618 x length of Wave 1
Wave 3 = 2 x length of Wave 1
Target = 5790
The Brown Path: S&P500 is completing the fifth wave of the 3rd wave of a five-wave rally.
Wave 3 = 4.236 x length of Wave 1
Target = 6440
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-11 : GAP DefenderThe GAP Defender pattern is where price struggles to maintain a recent open GAP - attempting to defend against closing that GAP.
In my mind, this is the lower GAP window between 601.30 and 602.75 (yesterday's opening GAP range).
If this recent gap is filled, then I suggest the SPY will attempt to move downward (into my Deep-V breakdown) trying to target the lower GAP near 584.29.
Watch Gold and Silver as they continue to breakdown. Any big breakdown in metals should be considered a warning sign the markets are moving into a PANIC phase (selling).
We have lots of news today (Powell and other Fed members testifying) while we just found out Trump initiated a larger tariff on steel. I believe the strength of the US Dollar will continue to put pressure on global currencies - possibly leading to even more foreign market distress. This may result in a broader global market breakdown over the next 5-10 trading days.
Remember, we have the Deep-V pattern setting up this week and another Major Bottom pattern setting up on Feb 21. I interpret this as a dual-breakdown event - where price attempts to move downward and tries to identify solid support.
Bitcoin will likely follow this trend downward over the next 5 to 10+ days.
Buckle up.
It looks like today may be the day my Deep-V breakdown starts to drive prices lower for the SPY/QQQ and other major sectors.
We'll see how things play out.
Get some.
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BTC ABOUT TO DUMP...Oh well, is this the BTC dump i've been waiting for...
As we all know BTC has been consolidating for around 90 days now, an entire quarter. We broke the $100k mark but failed to really drive any higher and make any new significant highs, i wouldn't class anything under $110k a significant high.
There is a trend line that has formed with 3 points of contact, confirming it's previous reliability until recently when we saw a spike dump from BTC from over $100k to around $80k. This spike broke through that trend line as well as some significant lows, breaking the stability and reliability of the support levels and the trend line.
BTC is now currently retesting this trend line at around GETTEX:98K , this could be a vital moment for BTC and all the Alts. If BTC rejects this trend line and drops off, continuing to break the lows of $90k i do believe we could see some downward momentum catch on and BTC could well continue downwards to the $70k mark.
I have been calling this for months now and hope it does happen as stated previously it gives us an incredible opportunity to load up our bags with BTC, but also with some good alts like XRP, SOL, BNB etc.
Lets watch closely over the next few days and see how this plays out. I am not short on this yet but would consider a short if this rejection takes place clearly.
BITCOIN - Time to buy again!As you can see, the price is forming two bullish patterns on the daily timeframe, If my view is correct, btc will rise to 120k .
And if this pattern is correct and breaks, higher targets are possible.
Give me some energy !!
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Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
short 107900 with tp at 100500 sound legit target it will go here easily and i think much more or bit more
but for no risk i take this legit target after the rally he just done its amazing
i not make stop loss in this scenario coz if he go to 110 000 i will had 1 lot and keep my target
if he go 115 000 same...no leverage if u have small balance then apply your RR
Some interesting parallel channel linesEvery single one of these lines has significant resistance and support with price action candle wicks and bodes. We can see that the double top of the last bull market has both of it tops connected by one of these channel trendlines. That same trendline we broke above not too long ago nd t was also during the recent correction the exact level of support for the lowest we’ve gone during the correction. I get the feeling that that trendline is now the new floor on bitcoin. Will be interesting to see how price action responds to these trendlines in the near future. The current top trendline could very well end up being our next big resistance,however on the way there we will be breaking up from a bull flag that has a much higher target than that current top trendline so it may not. I feel probability of the other trendline that connects the most recent major support to the last bull market double top being the new support floor for bitcoin is higher though. It’s currently at 90k. Of course there’s always a chance we eventually correct down to 78k or so to fill the CME futures gap but if so y guess is we will break upward one ore leg first before we were to do anything like that. If we did indeed go down to fill that CME futures gap at some point that is when I believe will be the last time under the current support trendline which is right now sitting around 90k *not financial advice*
The Path to $158K – A Two-Phase Bull RunBitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin is on track to reach $134,000 by April 2025, following the natural progression of the bull market cycle. However, as BTC approaches this key level, profit-taking and market dynamics will likely trigger a pullback phase, setting the stage for the second and final leg of the bull run.
Phase 1: The $134K Target and Pullback (April–July 2025)
BTC’s bull market momentum is expected to push the price toward $134,000 in April 2025, marking a critical milestone.
As this level is reached, a selling phase will emerge, leading to a correction between $62,000 and $72,000 from May to July 2025.
This retracement will serve as a healthy market reset, allowing for renewed accumulation before the next explosive move.
Phase 2: The Final Bull Run to $158K (Nov–Dec 2025)
After the correction, BTC will enter the second phase of the bull cycle, characterized by renewed investor interest and fresh capital inflows.
A new wave of hype and adoption will propel Bitcoin toward its final bull market peak of $158,000 by November–December 2025.
This mirrors historical market cycles, where a strong initial rally, followed by a correction, leads to an ultimate parabolic run before the market cools down.
Key Price Levels to Watch:
Target 1: $134,000 (April 2025) → Key milestone before the pullback.
Pullback Range: $62,000–$72,000 (May–July 2025) → Profit-taking phase and market reset.
Final Bull Run Target: $158,000 (Nov–Dec 2025) → Peak of the bull market before a potential cycle shift.
Summary: History Will Repeat Itself
Bitcoin's bull market progression follows a well-established pattern of rapid price appreciation, sharp corrections, and a final euphoric rally. With $134K as the first major target, a pullback to $62K–$72K will act as the foundation for the second explosive phase, ultimately driving BTC to its anticipated $158K peak by late 2025.
As always, market cycles repeat, and this time, history appears to be following the same script once again.
Bitcoin Trading Thesis – February 11, 2025🔹 Current Price: $98,402
🔹 Action: OPEN LONG (Buy BTC)
🔹 Target: $100,500 📈 | Stop-loss: $96,500
🔹 Confidence Level: 85% ✅
Why is BTC Looking Bullish?
✅ Market Sentiment: Strong financial & order book indicators suggest bullish momentum.
✅ Technical Signals: RSI & MACD show upward momentum, signaling a potential breakout.
✅ Derivatives Data:
Funding Rate: Positive ➝ Traders paying a premium to long BTC.
Open Interest: 76,854 BTC ➝ High participation in futures, supporting bullish activity.
✅ Order Book Imbalance: Increased buy pressure from large market orders.
Key Scenarios
📊 Bullish Case (Higher Probability)
If BTC holds above GETTEX:98K , strong momentum could push it to $100,500 🚀.
Breaking $100K could trigger FOMO buying and push prices even higher.
📉 Bearish Case (Lower Probability)
If BTC fails to hold GETTEX:97K , it could retest $96,500 support before another move up.
A break below $96,500 would invalidate the bullish thesis.
Trading Strategy
🔹 Entry: Look for pullbacks near GETTEX:98K for better positioning.
🔹 Stop-loss: Tight risk management at $96,500.
🔹 Target: First take profit at $100,500, reassess for further upside.
💭 Will BTC finally break $100K, or will it pull back first? Drop your thoughts! 👇
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis – Divergence and Bearish Setuphello guys!
Divergence Between Price and RSI:
The chart shows a clear bearish divergence between price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Price made higher highs, while the RSI formed lower highs, signaling weakening bullish momentum and the potential for a reversal.
Price Action Analysis:
The price reached the QML2 zone (~$103,000), and there is a clear rejection, suggesting selling pressure.
The price is now heading toward QML1, located at around $95,600.
If the price breaks QML1 and holds below, the next support target is around $93,455, where further downside could be expected.
Support and Target Zones:
Support Area 1: QML1 (~$95,600) – key level to monitor for possible breakdown.
Support Area 2: QML2 (~$93,455) – potential next stop if QML1 breaks.
Resistance Zone: Around $103,000 – the price has been rejected from here, acting as a strong resistance level.
RSI Analysis:
The RSI is showing signs of bearish divergence, which often precedes a price correction or reversal.
RSI Below 50: If the RSI drops below the 50 mark, it could indicate increasing bearish momentum.
Trade Setup:
Bearish Setup:
Entry: Short position below $95,600 (if price breaks QML1 and retests it as resistance).
Take Profit: First target at $93,455, then possibly lower towards $91,000.
Conclusion:
Bearish Bias: The combination of price rejection at the upper resistance level and RSI divergence points to a potential price decline.
Key Levels to Watch: The immediate breakdown below $95,600 and subsequent test of $93,455 will be critical for further downside.
Sector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingViewSector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingView
Overview
Sector rotation is an investment strategy that involves reallocating capital among different sectors of the economy to align with their performance during various phases of the economic cycle. While academic studies have shown that sector rotation does not consistently outperform the market after accounting for transaction costs, it remains a popular framework for portfolio management.
This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to analyzing sector rotation and identifying leading and lagging sectors using TradingView .
Understanding Sector Rotation and Economic Cycles
The economy moves through distinct phases, and each phase tends to favor specific sectors:
1. Expansion : Rapid economic growth with rising consumer confidence.
- Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK , Consumer Discretionary AMEX:XLY , Industrials AMEX:XLI
2. Peak : Growth slows, and inflation may rise.
- Leading Sectors: Energy AMEX:XLE , Materials AMEX:XLB
3. Contraction : Economic activity declines, and unemployment rises.
- Leading Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU , Healthcare AMEX:XLV , Consumer Staples AMEX:XLP
4. Trough : The economy begins recovering from a recession.
- Leading Sectors: Financials AMEX:XLF , Real Estate AMEX:XLRE
Step 1: Use TradingView to Monitor Economic Indicators
Economic indicators provide context for sector performance:
GDP Growth : Signals expansion or contraction.
Interest Rates : Rising rates favor Financials; falling rates benefit Real Estate.
Inflation : High inflation supports Energy and Materials.
Step 2: Analyze Sector Performance Using Relative Strength
Relative Strength RS compares a sector's performance against a benchmark index like the
SP:SPX This helps identify whether a sector is leading or lagging.
How to Calculate RS in TradingView
Open a chart for a sector TSXV:ETF , such as AMEX:XLK Technology.
Add SP:SPX as a comparison symbol by clicking the Compare ➕ button.
Analyze the RS line:
- If RS trends upward, the sector is outperforming.
- If RS trends downward, the sector is underperforming.
Using Indicators
e.g.: You may add the Sector Relative Strength indicator from TradingView’s public library. This tool ranks multiple sectors by their relative strength against SP:SPX
Additionally, you can use the RS Rating indicator by @Fred6724, which calculates the Relative Strength Rating (1 to 99) of a stock or sector based on its 12-month performance compared to others in a selected index.
Example
In early 2021, during economic recovery, AMEX:XLK 's RS rose above SP:SPX , signaling Technology was leading.
Step 3: Validate Sector Trends with Technical Indicators
Technical indicators can confirm sector momentum and provide entry/exit signals:
Moving Averages
Use 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages SMA.
If a sector TSXV:ETF trades above both SMAs, it indicates bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index RSI
RSI > 70 suggests overbought conditions; <30 indicates oversold conditions.
MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Look for bullish crossovers where the MACD line crosses above the signal line.
Example
During the inflation surge in 2022, AMEX:XLE Energy traded above its 200-day SMA while RSI hovered near 70, confirming strong momentum in the Energy sector.
Step 4: Compare Multiple Sectors Simultaneously
TradingView allows you to overlay multiple ETFs on one chart for direct comparison:
Open AMEX:SPY as your benchmark chart.
Add ETFs like AMEX:XLK , AMEX:XLY , AMEX:XLU , etc., using the Compare tool.
Observe which sectors are trending higher or lower relative to AMEX:SPY
Example
If AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLY show upward trends while AMEX:XLU remains flat, this indicates cyclical sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary are outperforming during an expansion phase.
Step 5: Implement Sector Rotation in Your Portfolio
Once you’ve identified leading sectors:
Allocate more capital to sectors with strong RS and bullish technical indicators.
Reduce exposure to lagging sectors with weak RS or bearish momentum signals.
Example
During post-pandemic recovery in early 2021:
Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK and Industrials AMEX:XLI
Lagging Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU
Investors who rotated into AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLI outperformed those who remained in defensive sectors like AMEX:XLU
Real-Life Case Studies of Sector Rotation
Case Study 1: Post-Pandemic Recovery
In early 2021, as economies reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns:
Cyclical sectors like Industrials AMEX:XLI and Financials AMEX:XLF outperformed due to increased economic activity.
Defensive sectors like Utilities AMEX:XLU lagged as investors shifted away from safe havens.
Using TradingView’s heatmap feature , investors could have identified strong gains in AMEX:XLI and AMEX:XLF relative to AMEX:SPY
Case Study 2: Inflation Surge in Late 2022
As inflation surged in late 2022:
Energy AMEX:XLE and Materials AMEX:XLB outperformed due to rising commodity prices.
Technology AMEX:XLK underperformed as higher interest rates hurt growth stocks.
By monitoring RS lines for AMEX:XLE and AMEX:XLB on TradingView charts, investors could have rotated into these sectors ahead of broader market gains.
Limitations of Sector Rotation Strategies
Transaction Costs : Frequent rebalancing can erode returns over time.
Market Timing Challenges : Predicting economic cycles accurately is difficult and prone to errors.
False Signal s: Technical indicators like MACD or RSI can produce false positives during volatile markets.
Historical Bias : Backtested strategies often fail when applied to future market conditions.
Conclusion
Sector rotation is a useful framework for aligning investments with macroeconomic trends but should be approached with caution due to its inherent limitations. By leveraging TradingView ’s tools, such as relative strength analysis, heatmaps, and technical indicators, investors can systematically analyze sector performance and make informed decisions about portfolio allocation.
While academic research shows that sector rotation strategies do not consistently outperform simpler approaches like market timing or buy-and-hold strategies, they remain valuable for diversification and risk management when used judiciously.
zoom out and control your emotion, ( will history repeat)imo BTC will go a leg up begin march, market schould start green in the week after 17 feb, before 24 feb ath i think, but in the meantime we can have 1 last manipulation dump to 83-81k not sure market is less volatile then 2021 so dumps might be less then before, anyway i predict we go to 150k+ in march-april 2025,
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update - Watching Paint Dry...Today's market seems to be trapped in a "go nowhere" zone.
Get thread though. The markets will react to my Deep-V and Breakdown patterns with some aggression in the near future (24 to 48+ hours).
Buckle up.
This is going to get very interesting as the SPY attempts to move down to 585-590 - or lower.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BTCUSD: Falling Wedge close to breaking to $105.5kBitcoin is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.917, MACD = -782.200, ADX = 41.331) but neutral on both 1H and 4H, as it is close to conclude a Falling Wedge. Today the price held the 1H MA50 for the first time after a test of the pattern's top, which increases the chances of a bullish break out. Buy only if the break out happens and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 105,500), which happens to be just under the R1 level.
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Will gold remain bullish?
Hi Dear traders
I think gold will see new prices in the coming weeks.
What do you think?
The blue dashed lines are important support lines drawn in the figure. And the red line is a resistance line that determines the slope of the gold price increase.
Please support me with a like and comment if you liked my analysis and share this analysis with your other friends.
Bitcoin is mimicking gold: Fractals are bullish!Bitcoin is following gold in its pattern formation. Fractal analysis of gold and Bitcoin reveals similarities in both charts. While gold is slightly ahead of Bitcoin, the same pattern is emerging on Bitcoin’s chart. If Bitcoin follows gold’s performance, it is likely to break out of this widening wedge pattern and reach new all-time highs, aligning with my previous analysis.
ADA - JUST ANOTHER DASHI'm a firm believer in Cardano and I will keep stacking it up for my retirement... but this cycle is over folks.
I don't like fractals but the results of overlaying DASH onto ADA's chart speak for themselves. The similarities these two share are kind of mind blowing. Two ingenious, open, freedom preserving projects who have robust and loyal communities end up getting beat out by venture capitalists.
Fight the good fight guys, use your voice, your wallet, and your vote to make Cardano the best it can be. Work together to solve problems and avoid the drama. Cardano will absolutely conquer next cycle.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-10: EveningStar Island PatternThroughout the past week and a half, I've been watching the markets as I prepare for what I believe will be a sudden and fairly aggressive Deep-V setup between 2-10 and 2-13.
Yes, that means RIGHT NOW we are sitting on top of a potentially aggressive type of FLASH market move to the downside.
Will it come from news, or someone's comments (think Fed comments or news), or will it come from some other source - if it shows up at all.
I'm sticking to my Deep-V analysis because I have no reason to believe it is wrong. We may see a mild type of Deep-V pattern, but I believe it will happen anyway.
So, as we move into this week's trading, I want to urge everyone to stay very cautious of a potential FLASH breakdown into my Deep-V type of price activity.
As you may get trapped into longs and feel comfortable entering some solid bullish price trends/trades, be aware that this FLASH breakdown (Deep-V pattern) may still be lurking behind what appears to be a solid uptrend (for now).
Gold and Silver are falling - which is perfect for my Expansion Phase rally to $4400+ (gold).
Bitcoin is stalling - preparing for a breakdown.
This is the time to prepare for the rest fo 2025. Follow my research to know when you JUMP INTO the markets for greater success.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Bitcoin is hunting for liquidity, What's next?📊 After attempting to break $100K, Bitcoin faced another rejection.
What’s happening now?
The SMA shows that Bitcoin is still in a short-term downtrend, struggling to gain momentum.
Right now, it’s hovering around $96,400 – $96,500, trying to stabilize.
The key support to watch is $94,400 – $94,600—if it holds, we could see a bounce. If not, things might get shaky.
On the upside, Bitcoin needs to break $100K first before making a real move toward $103K and beyond.
For now, all eyes are on the $94K support.
Will BINANCE:BTCUSDT hold or dip lower? What do you think?