1-BTCUSD
BTC chart seems lost to proove new support above 96kWe are bouncing in between 91k and 100k since November. Chart creates new support level at 96k right in the middle of this range. Generally speaking trend is bullish and we’ve seen new ath last month. Trend is our trend and let’s hope that chart wont be exhausted enough to drop under 96>91k and bounce nicely from now at least to 100k this week. I expect 120k by 24 February. But lets see how market decides
BITCOIN This is what happened on the last 1D MA100 double test.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit yesterday its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the second time in 6 days and is reacting on a bullish note early today following basically 4 straight flat 1D candles.
We mentioned the importance of the 1D MA100 as a Bull Cycle demand level on previous analyses. What we didn't discuss though is how BTC behaved the last time we had a 1D MA100 double test on such short time-frame.
As you can see, the last time Bitcoin had a 1D MA100 Double Test within a 1-week time-frame was on October 10 2024 and the one before that on May 08 2024. The common characteristics of both those fractals was that the 1D RSI held the 43.00 level (just like it's doing today) and the price rebounded to hit the respective Resistance Zone from the previous High. Channel Up patterns emerged on both occasions, the difference is that in May 2024 BTC got rejected on the Resistance Zone, while on October 2024 it broke to the upside aggressively following the U.S. elections.
As a result, we can target at least $108k on the short-term. Since long-term Accumulation Phases like March - October 2024 only take place two times at most during each Cycle (and we've already had this twice already), we give more probabilities to an extended rally like November - December to a new All Time High. Long-term traders may seek to sell these positions when the 1D RSI approaches the 85.00 profit taking level (overbought).
But what do you think? Is BTC starting a rally to at least $108000? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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300% gains Best Level to BUY/HOLD DOGE 5 waves correction🔸Hello guys, today let's review H4 price chart for DOGE. Currently pullback in progress, expecting more losses in this market before potential decent reversal/bounce off the lows.
🔸Previously we had a nice run from 8 cents to 40 cents, 500% gains. Currently expecting 5 waves correction to complete at/near 12 cents.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: BUY/HOLD low at/near 12 cents once
the 5 wave correction is complete. A/B/C bounce into 36 cents.
300% unleveraged gains possible, patience required. good luck!
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February 7 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
Here is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
The Nasdaq indicator will be released at 10:30. (Non-farm index)
Since it is a sideways section and there are so many variables in the Nasdaq,
I proceeded as safely as possible.
Also, the sideways section is difficult and complicated to explain,
but today, the participation rate was good, so I proceeded simply and mildly.
*Red finger movement path
Long position strategy (final short)
1. 96,727 dollars long position entry section / cut-off price when the green support line is broken
2. 100,445.5 dollars long position 1st target -> Top 2nd target until the weekend
After reaching the top section, switch to a short position
Check the live support line and price range
The first section at the top is a sideways market
From the first section breakout, an upward trend can be connected. If you don't touch the first section and come down right away,
the second section becomes the final long position,
and the MACD dead cross imprint on the weekly chart during the weekend is the main key point.
Even if it breaks through the top section and continues to rise,
the dead cross may continue to press down next week,
so it could be a headache.
If you look at the bottom,
from the current position to the sky blue support line of $98,912.5 (safe zone)
and maintain it without breaking away from the bright sky blue of $92,796 at the bottom (danger zone),
it would be good.
You may have been surprised by the sudden decline last week due to Nasdaq and Trump,
but as I explained last time, since the movement is within the expected range,
it seems that the direction will be revealed to some extent after this week.
I ask that you simply refer to and use my analysis so far,
and I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
You worked hard this week too.
Thank you.
Bitcoin: the $96K or the $92KAnother week of a higher volatility on the crypto market passed. As the BTC became a part of the mainstream markets, its price continued to react to all concerns that investors on traditional markets have. Currently, the major focus on investors is on the imposed trade tariffs of the US Administration, but also inflation fears. The posted non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures in the US on Fridays implied a higher correction of the US equity markets, and BTC followed. The basis for correction were assumptions of investors that higher average earnings of US employees might trigger a higher inflation and consequently Fed's decision to hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time.
Monday started with a huge move of BTC price to the level of $ 92K support line. However, this was an early move to the downside, which was not sustainable at this moment, in which sense, the price of BTC reverted back. During the week BTC was mostly traded around the $ 98K, with several attempts to break the $100K level. As this move was also not sustainable, the market reverted back, and again began sort of side trading between levels of $ 98K and $96K. The RSI is reflecting these moves, moving also in a range between the levels of 50 and 42. The moving average of 50 days slowed down its divergence from MA200, however, the distance between lines is high, in which sense, the potential cross is not in the store in the near term.
By looking at the daily chart on a larger scale, there is indication that the chart is currently more bearish than bullish. The level of $ 92K is a significant level, which sustained the price of BTC since November 2024. This level was shortly tested on Monday, which implies that the market is potentially eyeing this level in the future period of probably a few weeks from now. Still, for the last four days, the level of $96 was also holding strongly. The question is how long this level can hold the selling pressure? This level is going to be a starting point for the week ahead. In case that this level manages to hold, then there is high probability that the price will revert back toward the $ 98K, most likely will try to test the $100K for one more time. In the opposite case, if it breaks the $96K support line, then the next stop of the BTC might be the $92K.
Bitcoin Macro Update: Echoes of 2015-2017 | Gold, M2, and CPI
In this macro update, I dive into Bitcoin’s price action and how it mirrors the 2015-2017 cycle. We analyze key macroeconomic indicators, including Gold, Global M2 money supply, and FRED data, to understand Bitcoin’s positioning in the broader financial landscape. With inflationary pressures and CPI trends shaping liquidity flows, is Bitcoin primed for another parabolic run? lets let the market decide.
$BTC Daily UpdateCRYPTOCAP:BTC #BTC Almost a week now consolidating between $100,334-$95,878 range, $95,878 support holding good, Current 1D candle looking good with some potential to test $99,361 resistance if closes with bullish engulfing today which is being formed as of now, RSI also with potential to turn bullish on 1d, $94,148 next support area, $91,357 key support, $102,280 support regain will bring $104,987 test. Watch Given S/R
ATCryptoScan: BTCUSD About time to downThe recent price action stalled flattish with 4 days of doji... but overall, these doji have long upper tails. This means that with every attempt intraday to rise, eventually it is smacked down. Hence, selling pressure not tremendous, but enough to keep it in place.
MACD though a slightly lagging indicator, has already heads up that the daily chart of BTCUSD is in bear territory. Just need price to follow and complete the picture.
The window is opened for the revised target of mid-Feb 2025 accumulation at about 88,000.
Watch the weeks to come...
Potential bearish drop?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 97,706.94
1st Support: 91,311.03
1st Resistance: 101,849.75
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BTCUSD - M15 Short-Term Downside - Timing Today's USD NewsAnalysis of overall situation:
We had a strong push up (to the left)
We're now in a retracement phase.
Usually there are 3 pushes down before the retracement is done. We're on that 3rd push phase.
I'm looking to Buy overall, so this is a short-term scalp in line with the retracement. (The Buy scenario is the orange SnDR zone lower)
H4 candles still showing weakness, indicating the retracement isn't done yet. Also, the spike from the previous M15 low happened at the new day, which hints it's not the real low.
Waiting for the market to first take liquidity off the high of today, ideally enter into the gap (blue zone) then create strong Bearish candles.
Entry will be on any M5/M15 retracement - after a break of structure. Also eventually breaking the current upward trendline.
Targeting the M15 low
Timing for this entry is after the USD News at NY Session.
If market hits the invalidation level marked, then this idea is discarded.
Bitcoin: Watch Low 90K Test For Long Setup.Bitcoin is near the lower part of its broader bullish consolidation. This means swing trade shorts are higher risk, while longs lower risk. How you navigate this area depends on the time frame you use to evaluate your trade signal and risk. The key location to watch for the coming week is the 93,500 to 92,500 support AREA which is part of a larger support zone. A bullish retrace from this area offers potential of at least 2 to 3K points which is a conservative estimation. IF this support area gives way (decisive break of 90K), then all bets are off until new levels establish themselves.
Recent movements have been wild thanks to all of the drama in the news. People who consume and react to news events will often find themselves stuck in painful positions. Chasing news, reacting to dramatic price movements and/or random signals/patterns on charts in leads to random results. You want to capitalize on participants who make these mistakes by anticipating their behavior and this is best done by evaluating ONLY TWO market components: support/resistance and trend. As simplistic and obvious as this may sound, this is the information that helps you build a more accurate lens to judge a market.
Both of these components depend on the time fame you choose to operate. For this analysis, that is the swing trade time frame. Recent trend can be categorized as range bound. That has been clear for weeks now. In range bound environments, support and resistance levels have a greater tendency to HOLD until one side eventually breaks If we zoom out on Bitcoin (monthly) we can see this consolidation is likely a broader Wave 4, or a broader higher low. IF
I have to bet on a side, it would be bullish. For me this means expect more for longs, ESPECIALLY from major support areas and LESS from shorts, ESPECIALLY from resistance areas on this time frame.
For example: with this context in mind and planning to take a swing trade, having a price point in mind (93K AREA see arrow), you now WAIT for confirmation in the anticipated area. IF it appears, risk can be defined around 89,500. That's 3.5K points which may sound like a lot, but the profit potential if it bounces is AT LEAST 4 to 5K points based on the current levels. How you manage this all depends on your risk tolerance and account size but in my opinion it is a risk worth taking.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTC SHORT TP:95,000 07-02-2025"Btc is currently looking for a short position on a two-hour timeframe, targeting a take profit in the range of 95,000 to 95,500. This anticipated movement is expected to occur within a timeframe of 5 to 15 hours; if it does not happen within this period, the analysis will be considered invalid. Please stay updated for further follow-up on this position."
BTC/USDT 1H: Bearish Structure – Targeting Lower Levels?BTC/USDT 1H: Analysis
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Currect Market structure:
Price: $96,034, breaking below recent range support, signaling a short-term bearish trend.
RSI: Showing potential hidden bearish divergence at 40.85.
Smart Money Concepts: Indicating a distribution phase with lower highs.
Trade Setup:
Position: Short
Entry Zone: $96,800 - $97,000 (premium zone).
Targets:
T1: $95,500
T2: $94,200
Stop Loss: Above $97,600 (recent high).
Risk Score: 7/10
Reasoning: The risk-to-reward is favorable, but the price could still show some choppy action before confirming further downside.
Market Maker Analysis:
Accumulation: Seen around the $94,000 - $93,000 zone.
Current Phase: Distribution phase suggests more downside is likely after the current consolidation.
Price Action: Expect choppy movement between $95,500 and $97,000.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $97,000, $98,500
Support: $95,500, $94,000
Fair Value Gap: $95,800 - $96,200
Recommendation:
Position: Short positions are favorable after a rejection at resistance levels.
Confirmation: Wait for rejection at the $97,000 level before entering the short.
Action: Structure suggests downside after the current consolidation phase, so prepare for more bearish momentum.
Confidence Level: 7.5/10 – D
istribution phase visible, but waiting for confirmation at resistance.
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Why Bull Market Is Not Over For Bitcoin BTC?Hello, Skyrexians!
Recently we have see the drop on BINANCE:BTCUSDT to $91k. We can't understand why it caused so much fear and negative in crypto communities. This is still next to ATH but fear and greed index dropped into the fear territory. This is great sign for bull run continuation and now we will explain you this statement with the technical analysis.
Let's take a look at the weekly time frame. Before December we had a great probability
that anticipated growth from $50k to $100k could be the final wave 5 of the bear market, but price action has broken the potential Awesome Oscillator's bearish divergence. It gives us the confidence that this move was just the wave 1 in wave 3. It means that the most impulsive growth ahead. The minimal target is 1.61 Fibonacci at $140k, maximal at $200k. We believe more in $200k, but watch out our updates because targets can be recalculated.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
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XAUUSD analysis for the weekLet’s craft a forward-looking analysis for XAU/USD (gold) based on plausible macroeconomic narratives, historical patterns, and potential catalysts. Keep in mind this is a speculative exercise—actual outcomes depend on unpredictable events.
Key Factors Shaping XAU/USD
1. Federal Reserve Policy
Bullish for Gold: Lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Risk: If the Fed pauses or signals a "higher for longer" stance due to sticky inflation, gold could face headwinds.
2. U.S. Dollar Dynamics
A weaker USD (due to rate cuts or fiscal concerns, e.g., U.S. debt sustainability debates) would amplify gold’s appeal.
A stronger USD (safe-haven demand during a global recession or Fed policy reversal) could pressure gold.
3. Global Recession Risks
If major economies (EU, China) slide into recession, gold may rally as a safe haven, even if the USD strengthens temporarily.
4. Geopolitical Landscape
U.S. Election Aftermath: Policy uncertainty post-2024 election (taxes, tariffs, fiscal spending) could drive volatility.
New Conflicts: Escalation in Taiwan, Middle East, or Russia-NATO tensions would boost gold demand.
5. Central Bank Demand
Continued diversification away from USD reserves (e.g., BRICS+ nations) may sustain structural gold buying.
6. Inflation Trends
A resurgence of inflation (e.g., energy shocks, supply chain disruptions) would reignite gold’s role as an inflation hedge.
Scenario 1: Bullish Rally (2900–3000)
Catalysts:
Fed cuts rates aggressively (150+ bps total) amid a U.S. growth slowdown.
China’s property crisis spirals, triggering global risk-off sentiment.
Middle East conflict disrupts oil flows, spiking inflation.
Technical Outlook: A breakout above $3,000 (psychological barrier) could trigger algorithmic buying and FOMO momentum.
Scenario 2: Bearish Correction (2800-2600)
Catalysts:
Fed halts cuts due to stubborn inflation (CPI rebounds to 3.5%+).
USD surges as EU/Japan face deeper recessions.
Central banks slow gold purchases, ETFs see outflows.
Technical Outlook: A drop below $2,800 (hypothetical 2024 support) could trigger stop-loss cascades.
Scenario 3: Sideways Churn (2750-2900)
Catalysts:
Markets digest conflicting data (mixed growth, moderate inflation).
Geopolitical “cold wars” (U.S.-China tech/trade) persist without escalation.
Technical Outlook: Range-bound action as bulls and bears await clarity.
Strategic Takeaways
Prepare for Volatility: Gold will react sharply to Fed policy shifts and geopolitical “surprises.”
Watch the USD: A sustained DXY breakdown below 106 could turbocharge gold’s rally.
Risk Management: Use options or trailing stops—gold’s moves could be exaggerated in thin liquidity.
Final Note
By February 2025, gold’s path will depend on how 2024’s unresolved macro risks (debt, inflation, elections) unfold. While the long-term bullish case for gold remains intact (debasement hedging, de-dollarization), short-term swings will hinge on Fed credibility.
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