Understanding Moving Averages (MA): A Beginner’s GuideMoving Averages (MA) are among the most fundamental and widely used tools in technical analysis. They smooth out price data to create a trend-following indicator, helping traders identify the direction of an asset’s trend over a specific period.
What is a Moving Average?
A Moving Average calculates the average price of an asset over a set number of periods. By doing so, it reduces the impact of random price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the trend.
There are two main types of moving averages:
Simple Moving Average (SMA):
The SMA is the arithmetic mean of prices over a specified number of periods.
Formula:
Exponential Moving Average (EMA):
The EMA gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to price changes.
Formula:
Smoothing factor:
How to Use Moving Averages
Trend Identification:
Rising MA: Indicates an uptrend.
Falling MA: Indicates a downtrend.
Flat MA: Suggests a sideways or range-bound market.
Crossover Signals:
Golden Cross: When a short-term MA (e.g., 50-day) crosses above a long-term MA (e.g., 200-day), signaling a potential uptrend.
Death Cross: When a short-term MA crosses below a long-term MA, signaling a potential downtrend.
Dynamic Support and Resistance:
Moving averages often act as support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends. Prices tend to bounce off the MA during retracements.
Combination with Other Indicators:
Moving averages can be paired with RSI, MACD, or Bollinger Bands for better signal confirmation.
Strengths of Moving Averages
Simplicity: Easy to calculate and understand.
Trend Focused: Effective in identifying and confirming trends.
Versatility: Applicable to various timeframes and markets.
Limitations of Moving Averages
Lagging Nature: Moving averages are based on past prices, which can delay signals.
Less Effective in Sideways Markets: May produce false signals in range-bound conditions.
Best Practices for Using Moving Averages
Choose the Right Period:
Shorter periods (e.g., 10, 20) make the MA more sensitive to price changes, suitable for short-term trading.
Longer periods (e.g., 50, 200) provide a smoother line, ideal for long-term trend analysis.
Combine with Multiple MAs:
Use a combination of short-term, medium-term, and long-term MAs to understand different trends.
Context Matters:
Understand market conditions. Moving averages work best in trending markets and are less reliable in choppy conditions.
Example of Moving Averages in Action
Imagine a stock is in a clear uptrend, with the price consistently trading above its 50-day SMA. When the price retraces and touches the 50-day SMA but bounces upward, this can act as a signal to enter a long position. If the price breaks below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, it may indicate a trend reversal.
Conclusion
Moving Averages are a foundational tool in technical analysis that helps traders identify trends, dynamic support and resistance levels, and potential entry or exit points. While they are simple to use, their effectiveness improves when combined with other indicators and a solid understanding of market dynamics. As always, backtest your strategies and adapt your moving average settings to your specific trading style and market conditions.
1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎
Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫
Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭
Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
BTC shorting oppertunityOn higher timeframe btc has retraced to almost 50%fibonachi and also accumulating and taking support of trendline ,also there is huge imbalance on the downside,
scenerio 1 (red line) it might go to the 95600 level to grab liquidity and also to balance the price
scenerio 2 (green line) it will accumulate little more then it will go 102150 level or higher
comment your view
Bitcoin Breakout Alert : Ascending Wedge Strategy Explained!Hi Traders !, I bring you an exciting analysis of Bitcoin on the 1-hour timeframe. We’re looking at a potential breakout from an ascending wedge, which could give us an excellent opportunity to go long. 🚀
The VIP Scalping Oscillator is showing positive momentum with green, as indicated by the green bars.
The RSI is around 60, signaling strength in the trend.
Trade Values:
Entry Price: 99,032.95 USDT
Take Profit (TP): 102,314.81 USDT
Stop Loss (SL): 95,866.63 USDT
Risk/Reward Ratio (R:R): This trade offers a favorable ratio, allowing me to seek a strong return while keeping the risk under control with a well-placed Stop Loss.
⚠️Disclaimer:
This video is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. Trade responsibly!
BTC LONG 25/12/24 - SHORT TERM VIEW This is a Bitcoin price chart with two potential upward price movement patterns marked.
Here’s a summary:
Current Price Level: The chart indicates Bitcoin is trading near $98,640, with resistance and support levels clearly marked.
First Pattern (Bullish Move): A potential price breakout towards the $102,650 level, continuing to the $105,230 level, following a bullish trend.
Second Pattern (Pullback and Recovery): A potential pullback near $95,770- 96,370 before rebounding and breaking higher to the same levels as the first pattern.
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels: $100,640, $102,640, and $105,230.
Support Levels: $96,370 and $95,770.
Structural Stop-Loss Level: $93,500 for all long trades, as indicated by the "VIEW FAILURE" note.
Technical Indicators:
The chart displays moving averages 10 & 20, showing convergence near the current price, which may indicate the possibility of a trend continuation.
This suggests a focus on potential upward movements while managing downside risk with a clear stop-loss level.
This is my view - Trade at your own risk !
Bitcoin [BTC] - Trading Inside the Channel. Breakout when ?#BTC/USDT #Analysis
Description
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+ Bitcoin is currently trading inside the channel and price is around the support zone
+ Price touched support zone multiple times and this is the third touch of the resistance
+ I'm expecting the price to bounce back from this support zone.
+ If the price fails to hold the support then our idea is invalidated.
+ A bounce back from the support of the channel will push the price above 100
Follow the trade details in the chart.
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Enhance, Trade, Grow
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Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions.
Best Regards,
VectorAlgo
BTCUSDT - Bearish sign?daily chart displays a ascending broading wedge pattern
can notice obviously how price action going when touches the lower side of the pattern
You'll notice a full absorption of the candle, with only a wick touching the lower part of the pattern.
It's important to understand that the ascending wedge pattern is inherently bearish, often signaling a downward move. However, Bitcoin rarely gives you a clear short signal like this—it will likely liquidate all short positions first.
What’s expected is a strong upward move in the coming days, followed by a drop. Bitcoin’s target for this correction is 85k.
BITCOIN BUY | Potential Upsides | LONGBTC is about to fly soon. Market is moving above supporting area as market has already rejected this low position multiple times. now from this position BTC will go upward and fly.
BITCOIN is falling towards a support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity BTC
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
BTC GOING TO 193000$!!!"These days, everyone’s saying Bitcoin might drop to 74k or even 70k. But I’m here to tell you, whales and big institutions like MicroStrategy, with all their strategies (like the RTM model I showed you), are going to push Bitcoin up to $113k first. It’ll take a small dip there, then rise again to around $117k, followed by another pullback. This cycle will keep going until we hit $193k, and then we’ll see a nice correction.
I really hope my analysis helps, even if it’s not 100% spot on! Don’t lose hope – fiat money is heading for destruction, and only the big cryptocurrencies will survive. Stay positive, take care of yourselves, and remember: health is wealth!"
Divergences for dummies!we wanna talk about Divergences! and how to use them to our advantage!
there 4 kind of divergences in total which we will describe one by one!
1-regular Bearish Divergence (-RD)
2-regular Bullish Divergence (+RD)
3-Hidden Bearish Divergence(-HD)
4-Hidden Bullish Divergence(+HD)
first let's talk about the effects of divergences and than get into each one. divergences are strong signals that will reassure us of the continuation of the trend or the ending of them! so let's get into each one!
note that the trend is pretty important in finding divergences! for finding regular divergences on a bullish trend we must look at the tops and in a bearish trend we must look at the bottoms. for Hidden divergences though we must look at the bottoms (in a bullish trend ) and tops (in a bearish trend)
so let's get into it!
1.regular bearish divergences (-RD): these divergences accrue when the tops are higher than each other(in a bullish trend),but on RSI or MACD indicators the tops are lower or in the same position next each other (in a bullish trend) in this situation we can be sure that the trend is about to change and start the bearish movement at least for a while!
2-regular bullish Divergence (+RD) : this divergence is accrued when the trend is bearish (bottoms are lower than each other ) but on RSI or MACD indicators the Bottoms are higher or next to each other. in this situation we can come to a conclusion that the trend can't be bearish for ever and the trend must change!
3-Hidden bearish Divergence(-HD):The tops are lower than each other ( in a bearish trend) but the tops on MACD or RSI indicator are higher or in the same position next to each other in this situation we can be sure that the trend can still be bearish .
4-Hidden Bullish Divergence(+HD): these divergences accrue when the bottoms of a bullish trend are higher than each other but on the MACD or RSI the bottoms are lower or in the same position next to each other in this situation we can be sure that the bullish trend can still continue!
this is a clear example of (+HD) and It's effectiveness!
We hope that you've learn something with this post .
Have a nice day and Good luck.
👉 Follow me for daily updates,
💬 Comment and like to share your thoughts,
📌 And check the link in my bio for even more resources!
Let’s navigate the markets together—join the journey today! 💹✨
CRV:bullish continuation in play1️⃣ Bullish Flag Formation:
CRVUSDT has been consolidating within a downward-sloping channel, forming a bullish flag. This is a classic continuation pattern, where the price temporarily pauses before resuming its previous trend.
2️⃣ MACD Bullish Divergence:
A bullish divergence is visible on the MACD indicator. While the price made lower lows during the consolidation, the MACD histogram printed higher lows, indicating a weakening bearish momentum and strengthening bullish potential.
3️⃣ Breakout Setup:
The price is nearing the upper trendline of the flag, signaling a possible breakout. A confirmed breakout could lead to significant upside movement, potentially targeting the next resistance levels based on the flagpole's height.
📈 Projected Target:
If the breakout occurs, CRVUSDT could continue its uptrend, targeting higher levels in line with the measured move of the flagpole. Keep an eye on the breakout confirmation!
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always manage your risks and trade responsibly.
👉 Follow me for daily updates,
💬 Comment and like to share your thoughts,
📌 And check the link in my bio for even more resources!
Let’s navigate the markets together—join the journey today! 💹✨
Altcoin Predictions for 2025What’s Next After BTC’s Stellar 2024 Performance?
The crypto market is buzzing as we wrap up an unforgettable 2024. Bitcoin (BTC) stole the show this year, gaining an impressive 130% during a bull run driven by the crypto-friendly atmosphere created by the U.S. elections and the dynamic combination of Donald Trump and Elon Musk. While this explosive growth in BTC caught many by surprise, it left the altcoin market largely in the shadows.
So, as we look ahead to 2025, what should we expect? Especially for altcoins?
The BTC-Altcoin Divergence
Bitcoin and altcoins seemed to operate on entirely separate dimensions in 2024. BTC’s decentralized nature and its position as a “secure” bet made it the star of the crypto world. Altcoins, on the other hand, struggled to gain meaningful traction, highlighting their higher risks and their dependence on centralized teams or networks for development. This divergence raises a key question: will altcoins continue to lag behind in 2025, or is there a recovery on the horizon?
The Financial Markets’ Influence on Crypto
A fundamental driver of crypto markets is their strong correlation with traditional financial markets—around 80% historically. The past two years have seen unprecedented growth in financial markets, with the S&P 500 delivering over 60% returns. This momentum fed directly into BTC’s meteoric rise, but altcoins didn’t experience the same lift.
As history shows, sustaining such bullish momentum for three consecutive years is rare. If financial markets enter a period of consolidation or correction in 2025, this could trickle down to crypto markets. Based on this correlation, a mild correction in BTC or a sideways trend seems more likely than another year of exponential growth.
The Altcoin Outlook: Challenges Ahead
Altcoins face a tougher road ahead. While BTC is bolstered by announcements of central banks planning to add Bitcoin to their reserves—potentially injecting massive liquidity into the market—altcoins lack this institutional tailwind.
Key challenges for altcoins in 2025 include:
1. Market Fragmentation: The growing divergence between BTC and altcoins highlights a maturing market where Bitcoin increasingly serves as a “store of value” akin to digital gold, while altcoins are perceived as speculative assets.
2. Regulatory Pressure: As governments worldwide refine their crypto policies, altcoins—often more centralized—could face stricter scrutiny than Bitcoin.
3. Limited Institutional Adoption: While BTC is gaining traction among institutional players, altcoins remain largely retail-driven, making them more susceptible to volatility and less likely to see large-scale capital inflows.
What to Expect in 2025
Given these factors, here’s a summary of our expectations for the crypto market in 2025:
1. BTC to Hold Steady or See Modest Growth: With central banks exploring BTC reserves and its growing status as a safe-haven asset, Bitcoin’s price could remain stable or see mild upward movement, even in a lackluster broader financial market.
2. Altcoins to Face Headwinds: The altcoin market is likely to face increased scrutiny, limited momentum, and the challenges of differentiating itself from Bitcoin. Only projects with strong fundamentals, clear use cases, and active communities are likely to outperform. Here is my wild guess: SOLANA.
3. Sideways or Corrective Market Movement: With the financial markets cooling off after two frenzied years, crypto markets may follow suit, resulting in a year of consolidation or minor corrections across the board
Final Thoughts
While 2024 will be remembered as a banner year for Bitcoin, 2025 may mark a period of recalibration for the broader crypto market. BTC’s growing institutional adoption and status as a macroeconomic hedge will likely ensure its resilience. However, altcoins could struggle to find their footing unless they can offer compelling value propositions beyond speculative trading.
As always, crypto markets remain highly dynamic, and unexpected catalysts could reshape these predictions. Investors should stay vigilant, keeping an eye on both macroeconomic trends and developments within individual crypto projects.
#GOLD #TODAY GOLD TODAY
Gold broke the 2630 zone to extend its rally to near 2640 yesterday. And is now declining back to test the breakout zone.
Gold seems to be moving in an uptrend channel and could target the 50% Fib zone of the previous decline around 2655. Therefore, in the Asian session, you can wait to buy gold around the 2628-2630 zone. If you want to sell, you have to wait for a market decline to ensure safety.
Microstrategy - Might Break Lower Chart Pattern - Lower Crypto?Micro-strategy is currently hovering around the lower breakout point of the current Pennant or Triangle chart pattern. If this is not a fake out, it could signal lower prices to come for crypto's across the board.
If it holds, I expect it to move to the upper area of the pennant or triangle and if it breaks, we will see newer ATH for BTC and other Alt Coins.
BTC and the other major Alt Coins are all holding just above chart patterns that signal lower prices to come, so I expect lower prices, but with this lower volume during the holidays, manipulation is very possible from smart money and the market makers.
Trade carefully.
BTCUSD Daily Inflection Point UpdatePreviously I mentioned the weekly was consolidating, but there is potential for this momentum consolidation to have a breakout leg as momentum shifts and the final emotional price movements are played out. I was too conservative in my price projections; a lot more than I used to be- but there wasn't a whole lot of TA involved- I figured the dollar issues would crop up earlier.
Now that the Fed had pivoted. the yields are creeping back up pushing bitcoin back down. The fed doesn't let on just how dire the situation is- and with global tensions rising, the dollar is at significant risk.
I expect a broad correction in all the markets- and cash to become very tight.
There is daily momentum consolidation- and if any other events occur that send yields upward- bitcoin is likely to suffer as a consequence. If instead we sail into the new year unscathed- then this consolidation may provide another leg up; but a break below 88k and a push towards 60k may solidify bitcoins correction.
DAILY
WEEKLY
BTCUSDT Analysis: Breaking Key Levels on Dec 26, 2024Context and Analysis:
Today’s Bitcoin price action saw a significant drop after consolidating near critical levels overnight. Here's a breakdown of key observations:
Initial Consolidation:
Price hovered within the Bear Day resistance zone around $98,400-$98,600 for several hours. This area was tested multiple times, reflecting significant selling pressure.
Breakdown Confirmation:
Early in the session, BTC broke below the Day support level at $97,800, triggering high-volume selling momentum. The decline was swift, heading towards the Bullish Weekly support zone ($97,200) but offering little relief.
Current State:
Price is now testing the Day-ATR low ($95,200), a critical intraday level. This aligns with broader market sentiment showing weakness and a potential continuation of the bearish move.
Volume Profile Insight:
The Point of Control (POC) near $98,400 acted as a ceiling, further solidifying the bearish outlook when the price was rejected at this level.
Outlook:
Bulls need to reclaim the $96,400 swing close level to stabilize and attempt a recovery. Failure to hold above the current ATR low could open the door to further downside exploration.
Takeaway: Bitcoin is experiencing heavy selling pressure today, losing critical support zones one by one. Traders should monitor the $96,400 level for signs of reversal or a continuation of the bearish momentum.
BTC - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched equal lows lower.
But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of weakness, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
BTC Targets in 2024 & 2025As per fib tool, we can assume that BTC might hit these fib levels in this year or next year.
1.618 (102075.56)
2.618 (155599.53)
3.618 (209123.50)
Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.