#BTC - Is the bull run over?Is the bull run over for #BTC?
As I mentioned in my last post, I don't think BTC is ready for a more ample correction, only once we reach the extended zone of 105-108k
There are multiple confluences that sustain this hypothesis:
1. On the Pitchfork price touched the 1.618 low and rejected
2. All the liquidity was taken from 90-91k
3. There is now more and more liquidity forming above 104k, as people believe that the huge wick sweep signalled a change of character (reversal)
4. Looking at the Fibonacci time levels, we see multiple pivots in the past that were almost perfectly on the time levels, the next one being tomorrow
Even if price keeps correcting a bit lower to 93-96k, don't be fooled and sell early, because the next sweep of highs will be very impulsive, close to inflation news.
1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin next rallyI think most crypto market participants are too underexposed to BTC
This next rally will generate a lot of FOMO from shitcoiners, which will create cheaper shitcoin prices or, at the very least, alts maintain the same prices throughout a couple of weeks,
So avoid alts and remain fully in bitcoin.
BTC USD UpdateIf we zoom out and give the chart some breathing room, I would hold my stop loss under 90682.58, just in case these market makers decide to go for another swing higher. I have my spot positions loaded there, but sadly, last week my swings were stopped out at 100K. This chart is unpredictable and doesn't seem to follow fundamentals; it makes magical moves, so it's pointless to assume we should sell just yet. The weekly low is still holding as of now.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-9: Nothing PatternI'm visiting family most of this week and will be disrupted from my normal schedule for another 3+ days.
Please be aware I may not be as available for questions/comments as I usually am.
Please watch how the markets are extremely overbought at this moment and will likely fall into a pullback mode.
I don't expect this to be a big pullback - but big enough that you should consider locking in profits before the move plays out.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Bitcoin: the $100K reached, what`s next?The long awaited $100K target came finally during the previous week. This is another significant milestone for BTC and the crypto market. Although BTC was struggling during the first half of the week to push the price toward the higher grounds, still, news regarding a new SEC leadership pushed the price above the $100K target for the first time in the history of BTC. News was released that Paul Atkins would lead the SEC under the Trump administration. As Atkins is a proponent of digital assets and the industry around it, the market reaction was positive.
The RSI slowed down a bit, but it is still moving within the overbought territory, which is quite “normal” under current circumstances in which BTC is traded. The MA 50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, without any indication that some change in trend might come anytime soon.
The $100K target is reached, so the current question is, what is next for BTC?. It should not be any surprise if BTC decides to slow down a bit in the coming period. This assumption is not based on technical analysis, because BTC is currently moving in an uncharted territory, but on a simple demand-supply economics. As the end of year approaches, and holidays around it, it could be expected that the markets will slow down during the last two weeks of the year. Positive news in a post-election period drawed a significant portion of funds into BTC, and there is a lower probability that investors will make any kind of positioning during the last two weeks of December. In this sense, the expectation is that BTC might slow down, but any kind of significant drop in value should not be expected.
BITCOIN nothing to stop it now! Can top anywhere inside 250-400kMore than 1 year ago (September 05 2023, see chart below), we published the following Bitcoin (BTCUSD) idea, which very illustratively presented the potential course of the new Bull Cycle:
As you can see, BTC managed to trade an entire year rising within this green Arc pattern and always below the Cyclical Pivot trend-line that emerged from the bottom of the 2018 Bear Cycle.
We made the last update on this chart last August (20 2024), where we called the end of the 5-month correction since March and the start of the new Phase (final Parabolic Rally) of the Bull Cycle.
** The key hold of the 1W MA50 **
The key for that call was the fact that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) held twice during the August sell-off and supported. As you can see, on all of BTC Bull Cycles, the 1W MA50 has been supporting post Halving and never broke until after the Top and the start of the new Bear Cycle.
** Symmetry of pre and post-Having **
Given that historically the Bull Cycle lasts post-Halving almost the time it lasted from the bottom to the Halving, we should expect its top around December 2025 - January 2026 and if it is on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line, then it could be as high as 400k.
However, even on a less optimistic scenario where it lasts 1064 days (152 weeks) from the Bottom (not counting FTX crash), like the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, we can expect a peak a little over $200000 on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line.
** The 1W RSI series of Tops **
It is important to notice that the 1W RSI is recovering from the overbought volatility correction, having dropped from a massively overbought 88.50 High (March 04) to a practically bearish 45.00 Low (September 02). As this chart shows, BTC tends to top on levels similar to the first 1W RSI of the Cycle, so there is still a lot of way to go before it tops, especially if it follows the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, which had four almost symmetrical such Tops.
But what do you think? Are you also expecting Bitcoin to top anywhere within a $250 - $400k range? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC Bitcoin: Is the Bullish Breakout Here to Stay?👀👉 Bitcoin (BTC) has been gaining strong momentum, with a confirmed bullish breakout in market structure on the daily and 4-hour charts, reaching new all-time highs. My outlook remains bullish as I monitor a potential retracement into the Fibonacci 61.8% zone for an ideal entry point. In this video, we provide a detailed BTC analysis and explore how to trade Bitcoin effectively, breaking down strategies to capitalize on the current bullish trend. Whether you’re an experienced trader or new to the crypto markets, this guide will refine your trading approach and improve your confidence in navigating Bitcoin's price action. Not financial advice.
December 6 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
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Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
Nasdaq indicators will be announced at 10:30 in a little while.
It is currently in the 12 + daily pattern section.
It touched the upper side first,
and the 6-hour chart MACD dead cross pressure is in progress.
*Blue finger
Two-way neutral
Long->Short->Long switching strategy.
1. 97,065 dollars long position entry section / When the purple support line is completely broken
or when the 2nd section is touched, stop loss price
2. 101,511.5 dollars long position 1st target -> Top 2nd -> Good 3rd target
The 1st section at the top
is a short position entry point, but there is also a possibility of a breakthrough,
and since the 6-hour chart MACD dead cross is in progress on the Nasdaq,
I started with a safe long wait.
(Proceed from short->long->short->long to long->short->long.)
If the strategy is successful, the first section is the section to re-enter the long position.
I think you can trade autonomously.
The orange resistance line 1 / green support line 2 convergence section is a sideways market
From the bottom to 89.1K
It is a major rebound section until today. (Bollinger Band daily chart support line)
If you drag up and down,
You can check the major sections and prices.
Please use my analysis up to this point as a reference only
I hope you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you for your hard work this week.
BTCUSDT Up trend continuationBTC/USDT experienced a sharp decline before stabilizing. Prior to this movement, the price formed a triangle pattern. Currently, the price is pulling back to retest the midpoint of the pattern, which often acts as a support and resistance zone. On the daily timeframe, the market dipped below the previous daily low, indicating a potential upward movement. If the market successfully rejects the support level and the downward trendline, a price increase could potentially test the upper boundary of the channel. The target is the resistance zone around 105,000
Bitcoin - Bitcoin finally reached 6 digits!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. risk ON sntiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the failure of the resistance zone. After the authentic failure of this area, we will see Bitcoin reach the ceiling of the channel.
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. The target of this downward movement will be the level of 90 thousand dollars.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important.
Last week, Donald Trump appointed Paul Atkins as the new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a decision that sparked mixed reactions. Hester Peirce, popularly known as the “Crypto Mom,” expressed her strong support for Atkins to replace the current SEC chairman, Gary Gensler. She stated, “Based on my previous experience working with him in this organization, I can’t imagine a better candidate for this position.”
Meanwhile, Caroline Crenshaw, a current member of the SEC, has been nominated for another term and now awaits Senate confirmation. If approved, she will serve on the commission until 2029. During her tenure, Crenshaw has taken a notably strict stance on cryptocurrencies, earning a reputation for being even tougher than Gary Gensler. One key point of contention is her opposition to approving Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). In a letter dated January 2024, she cited concerns such as investor protection and market manipulation as reasons for her dissent. These views have led some to label her as the primary adversary of the crypto industry.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs now hold over one million bitcoins, surpassing the holdings of Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Within less than a year, these funds have become the largest bitcoin holders in the world.
Lawrence Summers, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary, told Bloomberg that the idea of establishing strategic bitcoin reserves is “ridiculous.” However, he welcomed efforts to regulate the crypto space and foster financial innovation. Summers also expressed skepticism about reducing government spending through the Productivity Department, calling it a challenging path.
The performance and weekly and annual returns of major Layer 1 cryptocurrencies are shown in the accompanying chart. Meanwhile, Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, appeared in a Paris court to face charges of facilitating illegal activities through his messaging app. Durov, who was temporarily detained on August 24, was released after posting a $6 million bail but has been barred from leaving France until March 2025. French prosecutors have accused him of running a platform that aids illicit activities. If convicted, Durov could face up to 10 years in prison and a fine of €500,000. This case has raised concerns about privacy-focused technologies in the Web3 space.
At the same time, the number of cryptocurrency wallets with non-zero balances has reached 400 million. Michael Saylor, the CEO of Microstrategy, recently shared his proposed bitcoin purchasing strategy with crypto enthusiasts. He reiterated that bitcoin should be considered a long-term asset and advocated for using a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for sustainable growth.
Saylor, one of bitcoin’s most prominent supporters, stated that for the past four years, he has consistently advised investors to “buy bitcoin and never sell.” He emphasized that bitcoin should be held as a long-term capital asset rather than a short-term profit tool. Saylor recommended that investors enter the market every three months using funds they do not need and hold the investment for at least ten years. He also stressed that investors should not worry about short-term volatility and should avoid stress by adhering to this strategy.
The trading volume of spot cryptocurrencies reached $2.7 trillion last month, marking the highest level since May 2021. A new survey revealed that over 80% of cryptocurrency holders admitted that their investment decisions were influenced by emotions like Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). The survey, which included 1,248 participants, showed that 84% invested due to FOMO and 81% due to FUD.
Kraken Exchange commented that the findings suggest many investors trade based on emotions and fears rather than logical strategies. These emotions often stem from misunderstandings or mistrust about the future of specific cryptocurrencies. The survey also revealed that FOMO drives investors to chase rising prices, while only 17% focus on buying opportunities during price drops. Interestingly, 63% of cryptocurrency holders acknowledged
All Stars Aligned: Bitcoin, Gold, Fiat, and DebtThis post explores the idea that Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," might one day replace gold as the preferred store of value.
Gold’s price (shown in yellow) has traditionally been sensitive to inflation, which is influenced by money printing, as indicated by the US M2 money supply (shown in white on the chart). Geopolitical and economic insecurity also drives demand for gold, the "safe-haven" metal. To add further context, I've also included US debt (shown in red).
The chart reveals that the market seems to have found some form of equilibrium at current levels, with gold’s price finally tracking the M2 money supply and debt parameters closely. Interestingly, Bitcoin (shown in orange) has mirrored this behavior in a similar fast-paced manner.
Around the $3,000 mark for gold and near $100,000 for Bitcoin, both assets are aligning with the money supply and debt trends. This suggests that any further price increases could be limited unless additional money is printed or debt increases. Of course, a Black Swan event could disrupt this equilibrium at any time.
I also used TradingView’s Correlation Coefficient tool to examine the relationship between Bitcoin and gold. The correlation is impressively high at 0.87, indicating an almost perfect alignment between the two assets.
The chart supports the idea that Bitcoin is tracking gold closely, strengthening the notion that Bitcoin could indeed be positioning itself as the "digital gold" of the future.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
NASDAQ ONE MONTH FORECASTAfter breaking so many levels and reaching such a high price, nasdaq should stop soon to correct ;
we think it could go up to 22K max, then come back to the red KL, which are the ones that never were corrected ;
not exactly sure when or how, but this round top seems like a realistic way to end the year for US100.
GOLD GAPHuge trade opportunity tonight with a gap so huge that it got filled right away ;
bulls took their chance, nice job, now it should head back to the original configuration towards 2600s, then 2550s later this month ;
the first week price is always the most important, here anyone could have made a huge trade by simply aiming at filling the gap by selling.
BTC LONG TP:105k 2 HRS 07-12-2024I am targeting a long position at 105k, with the expectation that it will materialize within a timeframe of 40 hours. If the move does not occur within that period, the analysis will be deemed invalid. Keep in mind that both the take profit and stop loss are merely suggestions, so feel free to adjust them according to your own trading strategy. Stay vigilant and make informed decisions. Good luck! #Bitcoin #Trading
BTCUSD Update: Correction or Pump to 107K?Good morning, crypto enthusiasts! Today, the fear and greed index remains in extreme greed at 78, while the stochastic RSI is sideways at 40.
From a price action perspective, there’s a higher probability of BTC revisiting the 93K area for a deeper correction. However, there’s a small chance of a pump to around 107K.
Stay safe, avoid FOMO, and always manage your risk. That’s all for today’s crypto update. Akki signing off, one chart at a time. Have a nice day and stay SAFU!
The point of interest is whether BTC.D can fall below 55.01
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(BTC.D 1D chart)
If it falls below 55.01 this time and fails to maintain, it is possible that it will touch the MS-Signal indicator.
Since the BTC dominance is rising, it means that funds are concentrated toward BTC, so altcoins are likely to move sideways or show a downward trend.
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(USDT.D 1D chart)
As USDT dominance falls below 4.97, it can be seen that the coin market has started an upward trend.
Therefore, in this upward trend, USDT dominance is expected to fall to around 2.84.
We can see that support and resistance points are concentrated in the 3.92-4.31 range of USDT dominance.
Therefore, the point of observation is whether it can meet resistance in this range and continue the downward trend.
If USDT dominance touches around 2.84 and rises or rises above 4.97, the coin market is expected to show a sharp decline.
If it rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to be in a downward trend.
If it touches around 2.84 and rises, I think the coin market is likely to show a movement to form a high range.
Therefore, it is expected to form a high point while shaking up and down and start a downtrend.
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1W chart will be updated after a new candle is created.
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The key is whether it can receive support and rise near the important support and resistance area of 95904.28-98892.0.
If it falls below the important support and resistance area, it is likely to touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
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If the price maintains near the 95904.28-98892.0 area during the period for the StochRSI indicator to reset, it is expected to start an uptrend to rise above the Fibonacci ratio of 2.24 (116940.43).
Accordingly, the point of interest is whether the price can be maintained around the 95904.28-98892.0 range until the next volatility period, around December 27th.
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The HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart is formed at the 56204.13 point.
If the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart is generated when the decline proceeds below the 95904.28-98892.0 range this time, I think the key point will be whether there is support around that area.
-
Whether ETH can renew the ATH when moving sideways until the next volatility period of BTC is also a point of interest.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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$BTC at a Crossroads: Which Direction Will It Take?
1. Overall Market Trend in 2024:
- The chart illustrates a strong bullish movement in 2024, pushing Bitcoin from around $23,000 to higher levels. This rally eventually reaches a peak near $74,000, marking a key resistance level on the chart.
2. Fibonacci Levels:
- Fibonacci retracement levels have been drawn from the previous upward move, showing key levels at 0.5 (61,417), 0.618 (64,598), 0.79 (68,858), and 1 (74,121). These act as potential support and resistance zones as price consolidates.
3. Symmetrical Triangle Pattern:
- A symmetrical triangle is evident on the chart, forming since mid-2024. This pattern indicates market indecision and signals that a major breakout may be imminent.
- The resistance and support lines of this triangle are clearly outlined, suggesting a strong price movement in the event of a breakout.
4. Key Price Levels:
- The current price is around $63,212.
- Two possible targets are visible following a breakout:
- Bullish Target: If Bitcoin breaks to the upside, the chart suggests a potential rally toward $100,000, a highly optimistic price target.
- Bearish Target: On the downside, a move toward $23,000 is expected if the triangle breaks lower, marking a crucial support level.
5. Support and Resistance Zones:
- The purple shaded areas represent significant support and resistance zones where the price has reacted multiple times. The current price is compressing between these zones, awaiting a decisive move.
6. 2025 Forecast:
- The green arrows and projected lines suggest two potential outcomes for 2025:
- Bullish Scenario: A breakout to the upside, with Bitcoin targeting the $100,000 level.
- Bearish Scenario: A downward move could see the price retracing back to $23,000 as a key support.
My Analysis:
The symmetrical triangle pattern and price compression signal that the market is gearing up for a strong movement, though the direction remains unclear. The eventual breakout of this triangle will be crucial in determining Bitcoin's next significant move. If the price breaks upwards, it could target higher levels, potentially surpassing the $100,000 mark. Conversely, a downside breakout may result in a sharp correction towards the $23,000 support zone.
In terms of risk management, it's prudent to wait for a confirmed breakout before committing to a particular direction, as the subsequent movement is likely to be significant.
What’s your opinion on Bitcoin's trend? Share your thoughts in the comments!
$AAVE Still in Up trend (READ CAPTION FIRST )AAVE has the potential to provide us with a solid profit from $145 to $190. This coin is still following its upward trend, and given the strong team and positive fundamentals behind it, its growth seems inevitable. However, we have not yet reached our ideal entry point. It’s important to also consider factors such as USDT dominance and the overall market trend when the price reaches this level on the chart before making an entry. So, we recommend staying patient and entering at the right time.
$BTC to the moon In the previous analysis of Bitcoin, we mentioned that after breaking this strong dynamic resistance, Bitcoin would experience its maximum growth. Bitcoin has broken through this dynamic trend and confirmed its upward move after a retest. Be sure to check the previous analysis. Bitcoin is set to hit an all-time high soon. Expect Bitcoin to reach between $90,000 and $100,000.
$BTC will Re-testBitcoin has broken out of its strong dynamic according to the analysis, but it still needs to provide us with a retest. I expect Bitcoin to correct from one of the prices around 70K or 72K, dropping to 64K for the retest before continuing its upward trend. In my opinion, a Bitcoin surge is imminent, but technically, it needs to retest our range before that can be confirmed.
Personally, I believe we are on the verge of an altcoin season, and I recommend starting to build your portfolio gradually.
Update on USDT.D: Is Alt Season on the Way?According to my chart and the breakdown of strong dynamic support up to the psychological resistance of 5.00%, the dominance of Tether has now risen for confirmation of a drop to a critical area where static and dynamic resistances have converged. In my opinion, Tether's dominance will experience a significant drop to 3.80. Moreover, it is possible that the U.S. elections may have a sharper impact on it, leading to a drop that is direct and without fluctuations.