1-BTCUSD
(BTC/USD) – Rising Wedge Pattern - Critical Breakout Setup🔍 Market Overview & Technical Breakdown
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently forming a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which is a bearish signal indicating a potential reversal. The price action shows higher highs and higher lows, but the narrowing wedge suggests that buying momentum is weakening.
BTC has been battling a major resistance zone around $85,000 - $87,500, struggling to break higher. If Bitcoin fails to hold above the key support level at $80,000, we could see a strong downside move. However, if BTC breaks the upper resistance, the bearish setup may be invalidated, opening the door for a push toward $95,000+.
📉 Rising Wedge Pattern (Bearish Formation)
A rising wedge occurs when the price moves upward within two converging trendlines, making higher highs and higher lows but with a weakening bullish momentum. This pattern often breaks downward, leading to a sharp sell-off.
Characteristics of This Wedge Formation:
✅ Upward Sloping Support & Resistance Lines: BTC is trending higher, but the slope is narrowing, showing a loss of bullish strength.
✅ Decreasing Volume: Volume is declining as price moves higher, indicating buyers are losing control.
✅ Bearish Breakout Probability: Rising wedges typically break down 75% of the time, suggesting a high likelihood of a drop below support.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
🔺 Resistance Zones (Potential Breakout Levels)
1️⃣ $85,000 - $87,500 → Strong resistance; BTC has repeatedly failed to break above.
2️⃣ $90,000+ → A confirmed breakout would invalidate the wedge and shift the trend bullish.
3️⃣ $107,000 Target → If BTC breaks above resistance, we could see a move toward the psychological $100,000 - $107,000 level.
🔻 Support Levels (Bearish Breakdown Zones)
1️⃣ $80,000 - $82,000 → Key support within the wedge; a breakdown confirms the bearish move.
2️⃣ $75,000 → Strong historical demand zone; BTC could bounce here if it drops.
3️⃣ $70,000 and Below → Ultimate bearish target if selling pressure accelerates.
📈 Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios
⚠️ Bearish Scenario (Rising Wedge Breakdown)
🔴 Entry: Below $80,000 (confirmed breakdown).
📉 Stop-Loss: Above $83,500 (to avoid fakeouts).
🎯 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: $78,000
TP2: $75,000
TP3: $70,000
🔹 Confirmation: Look for increased selling volume and a retest of $80,000 as resistance after breakdown.
🚀 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above Resistance)
✅ Entry: Above $87,500, confirming bullish momentum.
📉 Stop-Loss: Below $85,000 (to minimize risk).
🎯 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: $90,000
TP2: $95,000
TP3: $107,000
🔹 Confirmation: BTC must break the wedge’s upper boundary with strong volume for bullish continuation.
📊 Technical Indicators & Market Sentiment
🔵 RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Currently near 60 – Showing bullish momentum but not yet overbought.
A move above 70 could signal an overbought market and potential reversal.
🔴 Volume Profile
Volume is decreasing as BTC rises, suggesting a possible exhaustion of buying power.
A breakout should be accompanied by strong volume to confirm bullish strength.
🟢 Moving Averages (EMA & SMA)
BTC is trading above key EMAs (50 & 200), supporting the bullish case.
A breakdown below the 50 EMA could accelerate selling pressure.
📢 Final Thoughts: High-Risk, High-Reward Setup
🚨 BTC is at a critical decision point! The rising wedge pattern suggests a bearish reversal, but confirmation is needed. If BTC breaks below $80K, expect a strong sell-off. However, if bulls manage to break above resistance, BTC could rally toward $100K+.
🔹 Risk Management Tip:
✅ Always wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
✅ Use stop-losses to protect your capital.
✅ Monitor volume & key levels for stronger trade signals.
🔥 What’s your take on this setup? Will BTC break down or push higher? Let’s discuss in the comments! 👇
BITCOIN - Depth of Correction Update...After identifying an error in the recognition of Wave D, Please be aware that price is likely to continue lower than expected and may find support at the 50% or .618 retracement areas. Trade accordingly and I will post an update later today.
Last pivot high is 84,857
BITCOIN - Wave Count Update For Long Trade Idea...A slight shift in the overall interpretation of this structure.
We're still watching for a break above 93K for confirmation, but for those who trade with leverage, this analysis could provide an edge.
If it plays out as expected, we may see a fairly tight stop.
A decisive move higher is needed soon to confidently validate this setup.
BTC Breaks Structure - Key Levels to Watch PLUS Trade Idea!Bitcoin has broken structure to the upside on the daily timeframe, confirming a bullish trend 📈. I’m considering a buy opportunity, but only if the key conditions discussed in the video align.
Right now, BTC is in a strong uptrend, with a well-defined higher highs and higher lows structure on the 4-hour timeframe 🔍. In this video, we break down the trend, price action, market structure, and other essential aspects of technical analysis to navigate this setup effectively.
⚠️ Not financial advice.
BTCUSD PUUL BACK Double Top Resistance Could Trigger a Reversal
The chart assumes a breakout, but a double top is typically a bearish pattern. If price gets rejected at this resistance, it could signal a strong downtrend instead of the projected bullish move.
Support Might Not Hold
The analysis assumes a bounce from support, but price recently dropped aggressively to that level. If buyers fail to hold, a break below support could push price lower toward $83,200 or even $81,200.
Bearish Volume Presence
The recent large red candles show strong selling pressure. This could indicate that sellers are in control, and any upward move might just be a bull trap before further downside.
Resistance Overhead is Strong
The resistance zone around $86,400-$87,200 is a major supply zone. Even if price moves up, sellers could aggressively step in at that level, limiting upside potential.
BITCOIN approaching the critical 1day MA50 test.Bitcoin / BTCUSD has found the support it desperately needed on the 1week MA50 and rebounded.
Now it faces the most important Resistance of its Cycle, the 1day MA50.
Every time this broke in the last 2 years, the market started a strong rally.
Buy and target 140000, which would be just under the Pi Cycle Top.
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BTC: Capture buying opportunities accurately📍Fundamentals: From a macro perspective, with increased government endorsement, cryptocurrencies are gaining greater credibility and popularity in the market.
📍Technical Analysis:The downward momentum of BTC is showing signs of exhaustion, with multiple rebounds forming a structural bottom that provides strong support. Overall, the bullish trend remains intact. The key support zone to monitor is 83000-82000.
📌If BTC fails to break below this level in the short term, a rebound is likely, with upside potential targeting the 88000-89000 range.
🔎Trade Idea:
BTCUSD: Buy at 83000-82000
Target (TP):88000-89000
Stop Loss (SL):Adjust according to risk tolerance.
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BTCUSD: Staying bullish with this breakthrough analysis.Bitcoin remains marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.889, MACD = -2304.900, ADX = 28.298) as it erased yesterday's Fed gains. Nevertheless, this doesn't make us lose sight of the bigger picture. On this 1M chart, we have selected all Decembers, as they hold critical importance for BTC Cycles. Both bottoms and tops tend to be priced around them and in between two consolidation phases take place. Don't let the short term volatility cloud your long term perspective. This Cycle hasn't topped yet. Stay bullish.
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BTC at a Crossroads: Bull Trap or Moon Mission?A possible bearish scenario is playing out on BTC, but hey—just one of many possibilities before the real bloodbath begins. 👀 This could just be a classic trap to lure people in before shaking them out. The key resistance zone is between GETTEX:97K and $101K, a big range to clear. If we flip it and close above $102K on the weekly, that would be amazing—but let’s be real, we’ll need a strong catalyst for that. If we do, then we’re likely talking about the $120K range.
On the flip side, if we drop lower from here, the most obvious support sits at $72K. Below that… well, let’s just say we don’t wanna go there—next real support isn’t until $50K. For everyone’s sake, let’s hope we don’t see those levels. Big decision point ahead—let’s see who wins this battle! ⚔️🚀
Support and resistance for BTCBTC tested resistance near 88000 yesterday following the Fed rate decision, and this test of resistance was effective.
However, BTC uptrend is not over, and the lower support should be watched in the 81,000-82000 area, when the price reaches this area can continue to go long.
🎁 Buy@81000 - 82000
🎁 TP 83000 84000 85000
🎁 Sell@87000 - 88000
🎁 TP 84000 83000 82000
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BTC ~ MACRO Bounce ZoneBTC has been holding the 80K zone well, but from the macro perspective the bearish cycle should be starting soon.
This is due to simple logic (after such a dramatic ATH) as well as the Wyckoff Method.
Unless we can reclaim 90K, it's likely that this will be the third touch on the parabolic curve - which is usually when the bearish cycle starts.
Previously, BTC retraced and bounced one Fib higher than the price at the start of the bullish cycle. This puts us roughly at 28k, as well as at the neckline of the previous resistance zone before the new ATH:
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Action & Key Levels – March 20, 2025### **Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Action Analysis – March 20, 2025**
#### **Chart Overview:**
- This chart represents the **15-minute timeframe** for **Bitcoin (BTC/USD)** on the **Bitstamp exchange**.
- The background is orange, with key price levels marked by **purple and blue horizontal zones**.
#### **Key Observations:**
1. **Resistance Zone (~86,500 - 87,000):**
- Marked by a **purple box**, this area acted as a **strong supply zone**, causing price rejection.
- Price tested this zone and failed to break above, leading to a bearish move.
2. **Support Zone (~83,500 - 83,800):**
- Another **purple box** marks a **demand zone**, where price is currently testing.
- If this support holds, we might see a **bullish rebound**.
3. **Mid-Level (~85,143):**
- A **blue horizontal line** represents an intermediate support/resistance level.
- It previously acted as a consolidation area before the drop.
4. **Current Market Behavior:**
- The price is in a **downtrend**, with a recent **strong sell-off**.
- The green and red shaded area suggests a **potential retracement zone** for a pullback before further movement.
- If support holds, a bounce towards **85,143 or higher** is possible.
- If support breaks, price may drop **below 83,500**, extending the bearish trend.
### **Conclusion:**
- **Bullish Case:** Price rebounds from the support zone and heads back towards **85,143+**.
- **Bearish Case:** If Bitcoin fails to hold above **83,500**, further downside is likely.
BTC Whales Stir, Trump's Crypto Push, and the Path to $85,000
Bitcoin's recent price action has ignited a renewed sense of optimism within the crypto community. A confluence of factors, ranging from whale activity and political pronouncements to macroeconomic indicators and regulatory developments, is shaping the current market narrative.
Whale Activity: A Harbinger of Bullish Momentum?
The resurgence of Bitcoin whale activity is a significant indicator that has captured the attention of traders and analysts. Large-scale Bitcoin holders, often referred to as "whales," possess the capacity to significantly influence market dynamics.1 Their accumulation of Bitcoin can signal strong conviction and potentially trigger broader market rallies. The recent uptick in whale activity suggests a renewed interest in Bitcoin among these major players, potentially laying the foundation for a sustained upward trend. This can be viewed as the building of a strong base of long positions.
Political Winds: Trump's Crypto Pronouncements and Market Sentiment
Political discourse has increasingly intersected with the cryptocurrency market, with recent statements from a prominent political figure influencing market sentiment. Rhetoric emphasizing the United States as a "Bitcoin superpower" has undeniably contributed to bullish momentum. This political articulation of a crypto-friendly approach signals potential policy shifts and improved regulatory clarity, both crucial factors in attracting institutional investment. Market participants are interpreting this as a sign of acceptance, if not outright endorsement, of digital assets at the highest levels.
It is worth noting that consistent pronouncements regarding the US becoming the "crypto capital of the world," while driving short term volatility, need to be followed with legislative action for long term impact.
Macroeconomic Factors: Fed Policies and Inflationary Concerns
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the evolving narrative surrounding inflation play a pivotal role in shaping Bitcoin's trajectory. Recent indications from the Fed regarding continued rate cuts, despite persistent inflationary pressures, have boosted investor confidence. This stance, coupled with Powell's assessment of certain inflationary factors, such as tariffs, as "transitory," has provided much-needed relief to risk assets, including Bitcoin. This monetary policy creates a favorable environment for investment. The combination of Fed policy confirmation and rumors of "significant updates" to US crypto plans have driven Bitcoin to new two-week highs.
Technical Analysis: The $85,000 Threshold and Beyond
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's ability to reclaim the $85,000 level is considered a crucial milestone. Surpassing this threshold would validate the current bullish momentum and potentially pave the way for further gains. Analysts are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels to gauge the strength of the ongoing rally. The return of significant volume combined with the price retaking old highs lends to an increasingly bullish sentiment.
BlackRock's prediction of a price shift ahead indicates a growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a mainstream asset, potentially aligning it with traditional Wall Street investments.2 These kinds of comments indicate an institutional bullish long-term perspective.
Regulatory Clarity: Ripple's Resolution and Its Impact on Bitcoin
The resolution of Ripple's legal battle with the SEC has sent ripples (pun intended) throughout the cryptocurrency market. This development has provided much-needed regulatory clarity, bolstering investor confidence and fostering a more favorable environment for digital assets. The jump in XRP's price after confirmation of the case coming to an end further exemplifies the markets sensitivity to regulatory action. This resolution will influence Bitcoin’s adoption rates, as investors now know the US regulatory stance may be moderating.
Options Market Sentiment: A Shift Towards Bullishness
The Bitcoin options market has exhibited a noticeable shift towards bullishness, particularly after Powell's "transitory inflation" remarks. This sentiment reflects increased optimism among traders and investors, potentially signaling a sustained uptrend. An increased amount of bullish options being written displays further faith in the rise of Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin's Volatility: Navigating the Uncertainty
Despite the positive developments, Bitcoin remains inherently volatile. Price swings, driven by a combination of market sentiment, news events, and technical factors, are to be expected. Investors should remain vigilant and exercise prudent risk management strategies. While large volume and long term political promises are strong positive indicators, there are still volatile short term swings to consider.
Looking Ahead: The Potential for a Sustained Rally
The convergence of positive catalysts, including whale activity, political support, macroeconomic factors, and regulatory clarity, paints a potentially bullish picture for Bitcoin. However, the cryptocurrency market is subject to rapid shifts, and unforeseen events can significantly impact price movements.
To conclude, the present environment is ripe for sustained Bitcoin price discovery. The political and macroeconomic climates are aligning, coupled with increased whale activity and regulatory clarity. While markets will remain volatile, the trend is looking increasingly bullish.
$DOGE - Bear Trap BuyReposting my analysis from 3/8 as it was delisted b/c I referenced a non-TV external account. Also, a disclaimer since I've quickly discovered that people like to chirp and demean ideas on TV:
This is an IDEA. I maintain bull and bear cases for every underlying I analyze. My opinion about an underlying can change exceedingly quickly based on price action and how price's evolution either confirms or violates TREND (I define trend scholastically, NOT inferentially). I also may have 1 directional opinion about a security's higher timeframe and an opposing directional stance about a lower TF. Markets are fractal. Any serious trader/analyst understands what I'm articulating. This business is NOT about predicting. It is about understanding participant psychology, order flow, statistical distribution, risk vs. reward, profit margin, and probabilities.
With that said, here's my post from 3/8:
This is a technical (supply/demand) setup and is not a fundamental endorsement for CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ownership. $DOGE/USD (and crypto more broadly) has declined markedly (~60%) from December '24 highs. Late last month, low-quality daily demand (0.2021-0.1853) produced a minor bounce. DOGE quickly found sellers in advance of the opposing 1D supply zone (0.2428-0.2615), though, and was rejected. DOGE/USD appears poised for further near-term downside, with the weekly RSI threatening the 40 level.
If DOGE/USD presses lower and trades < 0.1813, the next pocket of daily demand = 0.1700-0.1419. More significantly, DOGE has a well-formed weekly buy zone @ 0.1513-0.1280. DOGE/USD's intermediate-term uptrend is controlled by 0.0805 (low of the corrective segment 3/25/24 - 8/5/24). Trend-continuation buying is valid within the bounds of the corrective segment, which DOGE traded into in early Feb. Buys are supported by 78.6% and 88.6% Fibonacci retracement levels and, to a lesser degree, Anchored VWAP + 1W Bollinger Band lower bound (not pictured).
Given crypto's broader price action and bearish momentum, confirmation entries are recommended. Potential buyers, depending on risk tolerance, should reference intraday timeframes for trend reversal signals vs. "catching a falling knife". Should DOGE bottom, preliminary target (T1) would be in advance of weekly supply @ 0.2398-0.2874 (use LTFs to refine and ID smaller sell zones that could challenge a rally). Trading > 0.2874 sets the stage for higher prices, with T2 supply 0.3288-0.3648. If DOGE/crypto approach T2 prices with significant bullish momentum (reference RSI), we could see subsequent prints in excess of December's 0.4846 high.
As always, feedback's welcome. Godspeed!
JHart
Bitcoin ($BTC) - Hoping for a Short-Term RolloverBitcoin bounced from the daily demand (76874.75-74306.67) that was highlighted in my "Bitcoin Uptrend Continuation" post from 5 days ago (see related post below). However, the rubber will now meet the road as BITSTAMP:BTCUSD could break higher or continue lower from current price. The in-play 1D sell zone, which is admittedly doesn't have great structure, is 86267.86-92920.42. Ideally, short-term CRYPTOCAP:BTC momentum, per the RSI, would be weaker than it is, but momentum is still soft per the daily oscillator. I'm not looking to short BTC blindly, but rather am stalking it via LTFs and will execute a confirmation short if evidence of the near-term uptrend (established 3/10) violation/termination materializes. If the intermediate-term downtrend continues, T2 = sub-$70K.
Anyway, just an idea. For those looking for longer-term buying opportunities, a near-term selloff should be viewed as a positive. Futures open in ~5 hours and can always be used to hedge longs if we get a breakdown.
Thanks for reading. Thoughts/feedback appreciated!
Jon
@JHartCharts
Bearer of Bad News - Short $XRPI originally posted this idea several days ago, but it was flagged b/c I linked one of my social media accounts. Apologies for any typos - the format of my post got jacked up after copying/pasting. Crypto's going to break one way or another from current levels. Bitcoin has a wide supply zone (not super strong) 86267.86-92920.42, so watch how it reacts...
Strictly technical setup here. Near-term demand/buy zones were good for bounces across the crypto space. However, buying has been fairly tepid. Given the technical structure for many crypto underlyings, this is unsurprising (addressed in CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ( COINBASE:DOGEUSD ), CRYPTOCAP:BTC , CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ideas). Barring a catalyst, it seems more likely that crypto (and risk assets generally) will trade lower before higher.
Unfortunately for bulls, BITSTAMP:XRPUSD has levels of daily supply near current price. Per the 1D chart, sell zone = 2.3265-3.4106, 2.5032-2.6487. Additional sellers are likely lurking between 2.6487 and 3.0153, though LTFs need to be analyzed for identification. If the RSI is printing < 60/65 if/when price reaches the abovementioned ranges, CRYPTOCAP:XRP could roll over and commence another bearish impulse wave. Use micro-timeframes to watch for signs of uptrend violation/termination + to confirm any short entries/long exits.
To bolster positional confidence, observe other cryptos, especially larger market caps. Correlative behavior can be a very helpful trading "odds enhancer". If other majors rally w/ significant volume/momentum, XRP will likely follow. Conversely, if BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , BITSTAMP:ETHUSD ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ), etc. fizzle out, expect XRP to do the same.
If this idea materializes and shorts regain control, daily demand = 1.5414-1.2843, 1.1222-1.0033. Fib retracements reinforce the aforementioned buy zones. Because of the explosive nature of XRP's 2024 rally, the monthly/weekly charts have "tradeable voids" (expanded-range candlesticks). While traditional technicals tout large candles, they're a double-edged sword. Their elongated nature is often reflective of limited trading and gaps in order flow, which can have a vacuum-like effect if/when prices correct. It's great when you're on the right side of the trade creating the candles, but there's also not a lot of unfilled orders to stop price from moving rapidly in the opposite direction. So, if XRP sells off, don't be surprised if price moves quickly.
I'm a fan of confirmation entries vs. "catching a falling knife". Referencing RSI momentum + using micro-TFs to ID trend reversal signals can help prospective buyers reduce risk (and/or increase position size). When volatility strikes, preservation is paramount.
Thanks for reading! Feedback/engagement welcome.
Jon
BTC Update 4 Hour/ FOMC Day March 19, 2025, GAME PLAN!🚨 FOMC Day Update – March 19, 2025 🚨
BTC at ~$83,244 (+0.28%–1%) as markets stay cautious. Fear & Greed at 23, RSI at 44.05 = neutral momentum.
While BTC is trading below all significant EMs, 50 100 and 200, It has broken above the 21EMA which is bullish for the short term.
Fed likely to hold rates at 4.25%–4.50% (99% odds) – a surprise cut could ignite a BTC rally. Whale accumulation signals potential upside.
Sentiment data and whale accumulation hint towards a possible upside but only if FED surprises with a rate cut.
The current pump in the market will be short-lived if there's no change in the rates which is very likely.
So be careful with your longs and shorts.
Volatility will kill both bears and bulls.
You need to keep an eye on Powell’s 2:30 PM EST speech.
Inflation & liquidity outlook will shape BTC’s next move. Stay sharp!
I'll keep you updated.
Let me know what you think in the comments and do hit that like button if you like this post.
Thank you
#PEACE
BTC----Buy around 85500, target 87000 areaTechnical analysis of BTC on March 20: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a medium-yang line yesterday, and the K-line pattern was still a single-yin and single-yang line. The price was consolidated at a low level. The attached indicator was in a golden cross, but the fast and slow lines were still below the zero axis. The suppression at the weekly level was still quite obvious. The current trend is still the trend of time-for-space pullback, but there will not be too much movement, and we just need to follow the trend and maintain short-term trading; the short-cycle hourly chart showed that the European session rose and the US session continued in the early morning, and the price broke the high and then retreated quickly. The current price is consolidating at a high level, and the attached indicator was dead cross but there was no retracement strength. If we see a continued rise today, then the retracement strength cannot be large. The intraday low is near the 85400 area.
Today's BTC short-term contract trading strategy: buy at the 85500 area, stop loss at the 85000 area, and target the 87000 area;