100K+ BTC 30m ANALYSIS 06/12Analysis:
Historical day for BTC, smashing the 100k.
I strongly believe all of December we will see BTC fly to $110K+.
In the analysis I've identified a great potential long position I will be looking to take if price comes back into my supply zone , respects and closes inside or above the SR . This is a great 1:6RR and even in the event price does create a LL below M30 Swing Low I will be looking for more long positions with the same target of M30 Swing High .
If the move is successful I would suggest it will tap our supply zone and should fill the entire position within very few candles.
To consider:
$100K+
FOMO
M30 Swing is LL
Trump and News Speculation
1-BTCUSD
BTC 4Hr Intra Day AnalysisChart Analysis:
1. Projection Overview:
The chart projects a bullish wave count for Bitcoin (BTC/USD), aiming for a long-term price target potentially reaching $144,742.10 and beyond, based on the Fibonacci extensions.
The next critical wave (Wave V) targets key Fibonacci levels above $109,418.14, with potential retracements near $98,047.90 before continuing upward momentum.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Key Support Zones: $81,499.25 (Wave IV potential bottom) and $89,369.85.
Major Resistance Levels: $109,418.14 (261.8% Fib), $144,742.10 (361.8% Fib), and $172,062.13 (423.6% Fib).
3. Market Context:
Wave III has completed a strong bullish run, while Wave IV anticipates minor consolidation before the anticipated breakout into Wave V.
A Fibonacci retracement of 23.6% ($98,047.90) aligns with a healthy correction phase in bullish trends.
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🚀 Bitcoin Price Forecast 🚀
The King of Crypto is eyeing new ATHs! 📈
Next major targets: $109,418 and $144,742!
Watch for healthy retracements around $98,047 as we gear up for Wave V! 🌊
HODL or FOMO? Let us know in the comments! 🔥
Bitcoin Weekly Outlook
BTC is pushing towards key Fibonacci levels, with targets at:
🔹 $129K (61.8% extension)
🔹 $234K (100% extension)
Support remains strong at $81.5K, with resistance around $97.7K. Eyes on a potential breakout to higher levels! 🚀
#Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #Trading"
---
Short Analysis Report:
Key Levels:
Support: $81,499 (current strong support zone).
Resistance: $97,698 (near-term barrier for further gains).
Fibonacci Insights:
61.8% extension targets $129,195, aligning with bullish momentum.
100% and 123.6% extensions ($234K–$339K) signal long-term potential if the breakout sustains.
Trend: BTC remains in a bullish channel, with the current structure indicating potential for upward continuation. Short-term corrections may occur but should respect key support levels.
This setup suggests a promising 2025 outlook if momentum persists!
in case that breaking down was due to fear.. we can go up likein case it was triggering sl orders to reach 90000 level. and
if we assume it was wave C from expanding consolidation pattern..
and upward wave 2 is strong consolidation.. then this can happen..
but its hard to long tbh.. i would be just long with low leverage in case it goes down more then i will add more position.
Alt Season is Right Around the CornerBitcoin dominance has been growing in the past few days as it outperforms the rest of the cryptocurrency market after the sharp drop last week. Many things are pointing towards Bitcoin continuing to outperform in the short term as we gear up for the next parabolic bull market.
However, alt season is very close and, once BTC confirms it's breakout towards 100k, a lot of the large caps like Ethereum and Solana will begin to go up very quickly. This is based on my cyclical analysis of alt seasons. To get a better idea of the cyclicality of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and alt seasons, check out my previous post which predicts the next parabolic rise in November:
An important thing to note when referring to alt seasons is that they don't last long (only a few months). So understand your timeframe when investing over the coming weeks. Another important idea is how money tends to flow during this period. It historically starts with Bitcoin breaking its all time high and beginning to rise. During this time, altcoins tend to underperform. But once BTC consolidates and begins to go sideways, that's when the rest of the market has time to catch up. In the chart I show 4 key points:
Bitcoin
This is when BTC makes a significant breakout whether that's from a significant resistance level or its ATH. This is where BTC is outperforming 99% of the market.
Ethereum & Large Caps
BTC will begin to slow down and a lot of the major altcoins will see a big increase. This is where you can find great trade setups on the BTC pairs like ETHBTC, SOLBTC, etc.
BTC Consolidates
BTC will start to go sideways, cooling off and preparing for its next rise. From here you might see some pumps in mid-low caps. These tend to be volatile and hard to predict.
Small caps - Quick and fast
As BTC continues to go sideways, some small caps might experience quick pumps in price. Similarly, these tend to be even more volatile and hard to predict.
After this, the pattern repeats back up to Bitcoin until we reach a peak and begin a new bear market.
The cryptocurrency bull market is brewing up and alt season can offer some incredibly profitable opportunities. Plan ahead, and don't overtrade.
BTCUSD Hits 100K, but Is Correction Looming?Good morning, crypto enthusiasts! BTC finally hit the long-awaited 100K milestone, reaching as high as 104K on some exchanges. However, this morning saw a significant drop, breaking through our red zone at 94K-93K.
The fear and greed index has dropped to 72, now in the greed zone. On the H4 timeframe, the stochastic RSI is at 39 and heading toward the oversold area. Looking at the Daily timeframe, BTC has a big chance of continuing its correction, with potential targets in the 84K range, or pushing the fear and greed index toward the neutral zone first.
Currently, there’s no clear sign of another pump for BTC, and even if it happens, it might only retest 100K within our green zone.
Stay safe, avoid FOMO, and always manage your risk. That’s all for today’s crypto update. Akki signing off, one chart at a time. Have a nice day and stay SAFU!
Bitcoin FAILED 100k!INDEX:BTCUSD FAILED a breach of 100k! Now it has setup my Spike indicator perfectly for a 3:1 Reward/Risk back down to retest the prior ATH at 73811. I could not have asked for a better setup.
I refused to short this rally... knowing better than to get in the path... waiting for a signal. That has now happened. This has been the most interesting Daily candle of the whole rally. Over the past 24 hours the social media sentiment has gone from exuberance at the break of 100k to now slamming back down inside the prior pre-100k high. THEN... right before the bar close a volatile selloff. How, why, does not matter. A chart is a record of human emotion expressed in price.
The party could be over.
Bitcoin Hits $100K: What Does It Mean for Gold?Bitcoin’s historic surge past $100K has reignited debates about its role in the financial world. Fed Chair Jerome Powell weighed in, calling Bitcoin a "speculative asset," likening it to virtual gold rather than a competitor to the dollar:
"It's highly volatile, not a store of value or form of payment. It's really a competitor for gold."
With Bitcoin soaring, many are asking: Could this mark the beginning of a stronger correlation between Bitcoin and gold, or are they destined to move on separate paths?
Gold Faces Its Own Test
While Bitcoin grabs the headlines, gold prices slipped below $2,630 per ounce, pressured by firming U.S. Treasury yields. Benchmark 10-year yields rose 0.6%, as markets anticipate today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to show 200,000 new jobs. A weaker report could lift gold, especially as traders assign a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized caution, acknowledged the economy’s resilience but signaling a careful approach to rate cuts. Gold, often a winner in low-rate environments, now finds itself at a critical juncture.
Our Trading Plan for Gold
Key levels to watch as we await the NFP report:
$2,630: Monitor for price reactions to this recent support.
$2,537–$2,530: Look for potential opportunities at this deeper support range.
The Bigger Picture
As Bitcoin claims new highs and challenges gold’s status as a store of value, gold continues to be swayed by macroeconomic forces. Will gold bounce back, or is it preparing for further dips as Bitcoin surges?
Let us know your thoughts—will Bitcoin and gold align as Powell suggests, or will their paths diverge further?
For more in-depth gold analysis and updates, stay tuned. And as always, happy trading!
100,000$ per coin - BTC heading to 4th HalvingBITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD CME:BTC1! COINBASE:BTCUSD
What’s Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates on a network of computers, eliminating the need for intermediaries or central authorities. It was introduced in 2009 by an anonymous individual or group known as Satoshi Nakamoto, who outlined the concept in a white paper describing a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Since then, Bitcoin has emerged as the leading and most valuable cryptocurrency globally, with a market capitalization exceeding $580 billion as of October 2023.
A notable characteristic of Bitcoin is its limited supply of 21 million coins, a threshold estimated to be reached around the year 2140. The creation of new bitcoins is regulated through a process called mining, which involves solving complex mathematical problems using specialized hardware and software. Miners compete to discover valid solutions that meet a specific difficulty level, adjusted approximately every two weeks to maintain an average block time of 10 minutes. The miner who successfully finds a valid solution for each block is rewarded with freshly minted bitcoins and transaction fees.
As of October 2023, the Bitcoin network has witnessed the mining of 813,378 blocks, with a current reward of 6.25 bitcoins per block.
Key Insights on Bitcoin's Price:
Recently, the mining of the 19.5 millionth bitcoin increased the circulating supply to 93% of the total. Additionally, a logarithmic regression analysis known as the rainbow chart illustrates the historical path of Bitcoin's price movement. This cyclic behaviour can be attributed to several factors:
Bitcoin tends to exhibit an overall bullish trend due to its limited supply and the halving of coins entering circulation approximately every four years. Historically, the Bitcoin halving has been a significant catalyst for price movements as it influences the supply-demand balance. The halving reduces the rate of new bitcoins being introduced into circulation while demand typically remains steady or grows over time. This creates a supply shock that often drives the price upward, particularly before and after the halving event.
Each halving period encompasses the mining of 210,000 blocks and exhibits distinct phases. The bullish phase spans from the first block to the 70,000th block, followed by a bearish phase from the 70,001st block to the 140,000th block, and finally a sideways phase from the 140,001st block to the 210,000th block. As previously mentioned, the halving diminishes the inflation rate of bitcoin and preserves its scarcity.
Bitcoin holds great influence over the entire cryptocurrency market due to its dominant market capitalization. This dominance follows a cyclical pattern, with the market share falling below 40% during bearish phases (after mining more than 140,000 blocks) and rising to around 70% during bullish phases.
During each era (between two halving periods), Bitcoin experiences an average drawdown of 80%.
Current Analysis:
We are currently in the third halving era, which commenced on May 11th, 2020, specifically within the equilibrium phase. The intersection of the mining of the 210,000th block and the lows of the logarithmic regression suggests a value of $30,000 USD per bitcoin.
The next Bitcoin halving is expected to take place in April 2024, at block number 840,000. This event will reduce the block reward from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins, consequently lowering the annual inflation rate from approximately 1.8% to 0.9%. As a halving typically ushers in a bullish phase, it is predicted that the price of bitcoin will surpass $100,000.00 during this era.
Technical Analysis Using the MVRV Indicator:
One of the tools that can help investors and traders assess the value and potential of bitcoin is the MVRV ratio, which stands for market value to realized value. The MVRV ratio compares the current market capitalization of bitcoin (the total value of all coins at their current price) with its realized capitalization (the total value of all coins at their last moved price). The MVRV ratio can indicate whether bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical average cost basis.
The MVRV ratio can also be used to identify periods of extreme market sentiment, such as euphoria or panic. When the MVRV ratio is very high (above 4), it means that bitcoin is trading far above its realized value, implying that most holders are sitting on large unrealized profits and may be tempted to sell. This can signal a market top or a bubble territory. When the MVRV ratio is very low (below 1), it means that bitcoin is trading far below its realized value, implying that most holders are sitting on large unrealized losses and may be reluctant to sell. This can signal a market bottom or a buying opportunity.
As of October 2023, the MVRV ratio of bitcoin is about 2.110, which is slightly above its long-term average of 2. This suggests that bitcoin is fairly valued and not in a danger zone. The MVRV ratio has been trending up since November 9th 2022, when it reached a low of 0.75, indicating a recovery in the market sentiment and the lowest price of the 3rd Halving era. As we are far from the overbought level of 4, this suggests that there is still room for further growth in the price of bitcoin.
(These illustrations are just for educational purposes and are not financial advices).
Sources:
1. trustwallet.com
2. ieeexplore.ieee.org
3. nber.org
4. buybitcoinworldwide.com
5. bitinfocharts.com
6. nerdwallet.com
7. investopedia.com
8. buybitcoinworldwide.com
9. kitco.com
10. coinwarz.com
11. datawallet.com
12. blockchain.com
13. lookintobitcoin.com
14. bing.com
15. bitcoinmagazine.com
16. stopsaving.com
17. decentrader.com
18. trustwallet.com
19. bitinfocharts.com
20. nber.org
21. buybitcoinworldwide.com
22. cryptonews.com
23. finbold.com
24. inferse.com
25. buybitcoinworldwide.com
26. blockchain.com
BITCOIN $BTCUSD | BITCOIN OVER $100,000 ! Dec05'24BITCOIN BITSTAMP:BTCUSD | BITCOIN OVER $100,000 Dec05'24
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Trends:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Weekly: Bullish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Daily: Bullish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 4H: Bullish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 1H: Bearish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD rallied over $100,000 for the first time ever, and just recently price fell all the way to around $92,250. Unsure where BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is headed next but thought I'd throw my indicators and a few quick drawings on the charts. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD also has an ascending triangle pattern that could be a good opportunity for trade entries.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD pullback prices:
Is a pullback to $69,000 heating up, here are my potential pullback areas:
91,500
90,500
85,500
77,000
72,000
69,000
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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this is not so good for us in general.so after breaking psychological level like 100k this always happens..
now what we can guess is that since it dropped real hard. this can be wave C but with
longer 3 and short of 5.
thats why i put c above the low level.
if we can support around 92000 is good but if we cant support well..
this way we may see going down around 85000.
or if we count this as starting of consolidation from 102000 then we have to draw
triangular pattern.. so lets see how it plays.. if we can just go up straightly then its pretty good and strong for the market....
i will update with real time analysis.
#BTC/USDT Urgent update.#BTC holding steady at support. Will it be a genuine breakout with a retest or just another fake move?
Patience is key, we're waiting for the next few candle closes to confirm the trend.
With no significant resistance here, the market's at a critical point if you zoom out to the HTF.
Stay sharp. I'm holding onto my altcoin positions for now.
IMHO, There's still a high possibility fir BTC to hit $114k.
Invalidation will be a close below $90.2k
DYOR, NFA
#PEACE
Important Support and Resistance Zones: 95904.28-98892.0
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
It has risen by about 500% so far.
I think profit taking is naturally taking place as it rises to a new price range.
-
(1D chart)
Therefore, the point of interest is whether the price can be maintained around 95904.28-98892.0 or higher until the next volatility period.
If BTC maintains its price around this range, it is expected that the upward trend will continue to create an altcoin bull market.
-
The 95904.28-98892.0 range is a range composed of the HA-High indicator and the BW(100) indicator, and can be considered a high point range.
Therefore, if it falls below this range, it is likely to fall further because it has fallen from the high point range.
Therefore, the key is whether the price can be maintained when the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart rises within this range.
As mentioned earlier, if it falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart and encounters resistance, it is likely to meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, so you should think about a countermeasure for this.
If it falls below the 95904.28-98892.0 range, it is expected that altcoins will show a sharp decline.
-
(1W chart)
What we should be interested in in this movement is how the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart resets.
We need to see if the StochRSI indicator resets with a large decline or if it resets sideways.
-
If the price stays around 95904.28-98892.0 or higher until the next volatility period, it is expected to move upwards towards the Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (116940.43).
-
Have a nice time.
Thank you.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
BTC Long ideathe last BTC was a little bit ago sorry for the wait, there havent been many opportunities for good rr trades since last time i posted. however now there is. This 8H zone is perfect to continue the long trend of btc with very minimum risk and a lot of potential profit if you trail your stoploss well. i will be looking for confirmation in this 8H SnD with a rather tight SL hoping for at least 1:5 rr to the target, from there i will take a hefty portion off and trail the remaining position. i have developed my own entry criteria and you guys should aswell. if you havent yet developed your own, i highly recommend you do so through thorough back and front testing.
anyways hope you guys like the idea and take the trade with me, let me know if you do end up taking it ;)
Bitcoin Support TrendlineBitcoin has officially achieved a $100k price point. 6 digits never looked so good.
At the time of posting this, it has shot back down below $100k and I'm posting this trendline again to help predict some potential support for Bitcoin in the short term.
BTCUSD continues to put in higher lows on the 4H. The last bounce off this trendline pushed us above $100k so lets see if BTCUSD uses it as support again.
BTCUSD: Target range updated to 200,000 - 300,000.Bitcoin is overbought on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 77.125, MACD = 9127.400, ADX = 41.734) but during Bull Cycles, this is by no means a factor to consider turning bearish. Quite the contrary when the 1W RSI in particular crosses above the 70.000 level, Bitcoin turns parabolic. The Top is priced only long after the 1W RSI starts to pull back inside a Channel Down. Bitcoin is now inside a 7 year Channel Up and the current 3-week consolidation phase is the same pattern we saw in Nov-Dec 2020, which broke into a more aggressive rally to the Channel's top. A valid TP range now is 200,000 - 300,000.
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BTC a comprehensive analysishello guys...
let's investigate about BTC through Elliot!
Wave 1 to Wave 4:
Wave 1 initiates the bullish trend.
Wave 2 consolidates into a flat or corrective pattern.
Wave 3 is extended, showing a strong upward trend (impulse).
Wave 4 forms a triangle or corrective structure, preparing for Wave 5.
as you know there are 3 common alternative waves 5 right now!
the first scenario is wave 5 be the %61 of wave 3! It means the current situation!
Conservative Target (96,598.96 - 0.618 Fibonacci Extension):
Analysis: Wave 5 terminates slightly above the end of Wave 3. This scenario suggests that Wave 5 could face resistance near the 0.618 Fibonacci extension and align with market exhaustion after an extended rally.
Outcome: A shorter rally indicates that market momentum may slow down significantly.
Likelihood: Low to Moderate
Why?
Wave 3 extension is significant in your chart, often a sign of a strong uptrend. Wave 5 typically equals or exceeds Wave 3, so a short Wave 5 is less common unless momentum is weak.
When is it likely?
If resistance is around $96,600, it is due to overbought conditions or lack of demand.
If Wave 5 follows a truncated structure (which happens in rare cases).
The second scenario is that wave 5 be as high as wave 3
Moderate Target (146,754.93 - Fibonacci 1.0 Extension):
Analysis: This scenario assumes Wave 5 reaches parity with Wave 1 and Wave 3 in terms of magnitude. It aligns with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension, a key projection level in Elliott Wave analysis.
Outcome: Suggests sustained bullish momentum, supported by volume and macroeconomic conditions.
Likelihood: High
Why?
Wave 5 extension parity with Wave 1 or Wave 3 is typical in Elliott Wave theory.
A target at the 1.0 Fibonacci level reflects a balance between bullish momentum and market saturation.
Cryptocurrency markets often respect Fibonacci levels, especially during trends.
External factors like increasing institutional adoption (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs) and positive sentiment around Bitcoin could support this scenario.
When is it likely?
If the broader macro trend supports continued momentum (e.g., dollar weakness, institutional inflows).
If the market exhibits sustained volume without becoming overheated.
and the final scenario
Aggressive Target (288,680.96 - 1.618 Fibonacci Extension):
Analysis: Wave 5 enters a parabolic phase, often seen in cryptocurrency markets during speculative mania. The target aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, indicating a highly extended rally fueled by exponential growth or hype.
Outcome: This could lead to market overvaluation, followed by a sharp corrective phase.
Likelihood: Moderate
Why?
While Bitcoin is known for its parabolic rallies, such an aggressive extension would require exceptional circumstances.
Potential drivers could include:
Rapid institutional adoption.
Major geopolitical instability driving demand for hard assets.
Speculative mania (e.g., retail FOMO, media hype).
However, achieving this target would likely trigger a significant correction afterward.
When is it likely?
If Bitcoin enters a speculative "blow-off top" phase like in late 2017 or 2021.
If external catalysts (e.g., Bitcoin halving effects, spot ETF approvals, mass adoption) align simultaneously.
Prepare for the moderate scenario ($146,754) but remain flexible. If the market displays speculative characteristics, the aggressive scenario ($288,680) becomes more probable. Conversely, signs of exhaustion at lower levels could limit the rally to $96,600.
The Anomaly Price Event May Hit Before December 31Just before the US Presidential Elections, I published a detailed research report suggesting the markets may move into a low-liquidity event that could be very dangerous for traders.
My Adaptive Dynamic Learning (AI) predictive modeling system highlighted a range of price volatility just after the election showing a very real downward price event. If this event takes place, we may see the SPY/QQQ fall more than 5.5% while other sectors may fall more than 10.5%.
What is interesting is the post-election rally pushed some SPDR sectors above the upper ADL predicted price range. This means price is now very overbought in terms of expected levels.
Any reversion could prompt a very solid downward price move and catch many traders by surprise.
I'm watching my Crash Index and the XLF & XLRE sectors for any signs of a breakdown.
I suggest all of you move to protect capital as we move into the end of 2024 and prepare for what may become a very violent and volatile Anomaly Price Event.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Bullflag on bitcoin’s monthly log chart putting up big numbers 200k by May?! The measured move target is over 200k and the trajectory of the ensured move line suggests that it could even potentially reach this target in the first half of 2025. A very exciting notion let’s hope it can and will. I do expect one steep corrections on the way to this target. *not financial advice*