The best investment since Nov 2021 - GOLD or BITCOIN ? - FACTSThe Main Chart is the chart from BITFINEX that trades Bitcoin to Gold DIRECTLY
I look to this often and find it a MUST See to compare the two assets.
This is Not done to try and make BTC like GOLD but that they are both investments with returns,
It is as simple as that
But which one has the higher return ?
I have taken the November 2021 Bitcoin ATH as the Datum point. a Worse case scenario for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Directly to Gold.
As you can see on the main chart. If you had sold your Gold into Bitcoin and Just Held since Nov 2021, you are currently at a slight loss. Less ounces of Gold to one Bitcoin.
It is as simple as that. But PA has fallen from Above the buy price recently.
But to also mention, if you had bought Bitcoin with your Gold at the Bottom in Jan 2023, that is a 360% Rise in Value DIRECTLY OVER GOLD as opposed to the -75% Losses from ATH to Low.
Nothing else does that
Lets look at a comparison Via 100 USD investments into each asset
GOLD USD CFD
Let us say we invested 100 usd in Nov 2021 at the Bitcoin ATH that year.
Since then, there has been a 62.71 % increase in price; from your buy price, if you simply just held your investment.
This gives you 162.71 usd currently
PA had risen 12% from that date but then dropped 22% to the low. From the Low, PA has risen 89 % and if you had Traded your investment, selling high, buying Low, you would now have 211.68 usd currently
Now to Bitcoin - again, 100 usd invested at the ATH in Nov 2021
100 invested in Nov 2021 currently has a 24.68 % increase from Buy price. if you just HODL, off the 2021 ATH and so you would have 124.68 currently
From that ATH point, we saw a Loss as PA dropped 77.2% to the Low but then Rose up 596% from the Low.
If you traded , Depending on when you sold your bad 100 investment , the gains are different But lets say, you sold what was left of your 100 at the slight rise in PA in March 2022 - that was a loss of 28.5%, leaving you 71.5 usd
Wait till the Low in Jan 203 and then continue Buy Low, Sell high, you currently have 743 usd , having sold the top at 109K and waiting for the next Low
So, in summery, from 100 usd investment in Nov 2021 BTC ATH
GOLD
HODL 162.71 - Traded 211.68
BITCOIN
HODL 124.68 - Traded 743.34
The ONLY REAL Loss currently is with the BTC GOLD pair, where BTC is -20% currently off Buy price, having fallen from HIGHER than Buy price recently,.
However, PA is on the lower trend line, as you can see in the chart, and the expectation is for a Strong Bounce over the next few weeks..This will set BTC off towards that magical 50 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin.
But it has to be said, the journey if you held Bitcoin having sold out from Gold has been painful.
Tthat pain is about to end, very possibly forever.
Trading is not for everyone and Hitting the perfect High or Low point is almost impossible.
But the Gains are there in Bitcoin against Gold if you even do basic trading.
And, inmy opinion, if you have gold....SERIOUSLY think abot Bitcoin now.
Gold is OVERBOUGHT on many timeframes....
Bitcoin is not...................
1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin BTC price analysis, FOMC 19/03 - FED rateOur previous idea for OKX:BTCUSDT worked out 10 out of 10
Well, let's try to hit it again !)
Yesterday, CRYPTOCAP:BTC price showed growth despite the fact that the Fed left the rate unchanged yesterday #FOMC
In short, Powell said that he was "hesitant" to cut the rate now because it is not known how the economy will be affected by the new "economic tariffs and economic wars" that come into effect in early April. In the US, one "grandfather" does not know what to expect from the other "grandfather" ))
Nevertheless, #BTCUSD price has every chance of reaching $94k in the coming days.
And then, I would like to see a decline in BTC.D and USDT.D, which in turn will allow altcoins to "stop collapsing", and some low-liquid ones, which are easier to pump, will show good growth, such as X Empire.
👀 In general, the last 2 months have been: "not about making money, but about surviving and keeping the deposit, even with a drawdown", but the next 3 months may be very much about making money.
_____________________
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BITCOIN The Ultimate Cycle Model calls for $160k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is rebounding following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. Technically the rebound has already started 10 days ago after the market nearly bottomed on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is the strongest long-term Support level, as it is where BTC priced Lows and rebounded on August 05 2024 and September 11 2023, but it is not the only one.
With the current 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle pattern being a Channel Up, this is the absolute and ultimate model that has been guiding the price action and can help estimate any future moves. Given that, it's also the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level that supported both Lows (as well as the current one) on the 1W MA50 mentioned above. As a result, we are so far on a double Support cluster.
The 1W RSI comes in as the 3rd Support, as it hit and is rebounding now on its 2-year Support level, where the bounces of September 07 2024 and September 11 2023 happened. It is also important to mention that the Channel Up can be divided into two phases, Phase 1 (green Channel Up), which traded within the 0.0 - 1.0 Fibonacci range and Phase 2 (blue Channel Up), which trades within the 0.5 - 1.5 Fibonacci range.
The symmetry within those patterns are so high that the two Bullish Legs of Phase one have both rallied by +100.64%. If Phase 2 follows the same dynamic, and there is no reason to assume it won't as the Bearish Legs have been almost identical, we can assume that the Bullish Leg that has just started will rise by +121.48%, same as the previous one (Aug - Dec 2024). That gives us a Target estimate of $160000.
So do you think that BTC has bottomed on this Triple Support Cluster and if so, can it reach $160k by the end of this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Long Term Bitcoin SituationRemember the time that we broke out the major bull flag in Bitcoin? It caused many new all time high levels in recent months. The problem is that Bitcoin lost its 5 waved bullish momentum. We see an upwards move only because of the fundemantel news.
I believe we are currently in a correction phase known as A-B-C pattern according to Elliot Waves theory. In order for Bitcoin to create another all time high level, there some requirements to achieve.
First, another bullish fundemantel actor in macro economic events. This could be an interest rate cuts, something about ETF's or even some crayz idea from Trump himself. Problably, it will be about intrest rates to be cut down in next june.
Second, Bitcoin needs to gain its delta momentum back (it's called CVD). For many weeks while Bitcoin has risen up, there were some significant movements in futures section. Bulls and long term holders were keeping their positions. With acceptence of the ETF's, spot Bitcoin volume was increased as well. The problem about this part of the story is, big instutial money that carried Bitcoin upwards is leaving. It's mostly because of the new politics that Trump has brought to the US. Instutial money or simple retail traders don't really like when there is an uncertainity about the economy. Fear and uncertainity is taking smart money away from Bitcoin. When this situation changes, money flow will change again and Bitcoin may catch the momentum it needs.
As the last requirement, Bitcoin hasn't actualy swept all the remaining liquidtiy below the lastly formed bullish flag. It's important for two reasons:
1: In technical terms, it will be fine retest and safe entry.
2: All the rookies who play around with futures sections in exchanges will be eliminated. So there will enough liquidty to go upwards again.
Remember, market always run for the liquidty and all the tecnical things you heard from people around is shaped by this consept. We will meet below 70K again before this summer.
For short term, I believe there will be another uprising move before upcoming pullback. It will be a short one and will get people in.
You see RSI below the chart that it's broken a trendline. Usually it's something good but in this case, even though some other indicators tells us that Bitcoin catch is momentum back again, I don't believe its that simple. As an another example, MACD also screaming out for Bitcoin to rise at the this moment in the daily chart. As I mentioned earlier, it's all caused because of the fundemantel news. Nothing real.
Good Luck to us all .
BTCUSD | Rising Wedge Breakdown – Bearish SetupChart Overview:
This chart represents Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe and showcases a Rising Wedge pattern. The price action has reached a key resistance level, and a potential breakdown scenario is unfolding.
1️⃣ Pattern Identification: Rising Wedge Formation
A Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that forms when price moves within two converging upward-sloping trendlines. The narrowing price range indicates a weakening trend, and a breakdown usually leads to a significant price drop.
Upper Trendline (Resistance): Marked in blue, this trendline connects the higher highs.
Lower Trendline (Support): Also in blue, connecting the higher lows.
Breakdown Confirmation: The price has already moved below the wedge support, confirming the bearish bias.
2️⃣ Key Price Levels & Zones
🔹 Resistance Zone (Blue Box)
This strong resistance level has repeatedly rejected the price.
The final rejection led to a breakout failure and potential trend reversal.
🔹 Support Zone (Blue Box)
A strong demand zone, but a breakdown below it triggers a bearish trend.
This level is now acting as potential resistance after the breakdown.
🔹 ATH (All-Time High) – $87,566
This marks the highest price level reached in the given timeframe.
3️⃣ Market Structure Breakdown
🔻 Bearish Momentum & Breakdown
After touching the resistance, BTC failed to sustain upward movement.
A breakout of the wedge's lower trendline confirms a trend reversal.
Price action suggests a lower-high, lower-low structure, indicating a bearish market shift.
📉 Expected Price Movement (Wave Structure)
The breakout retest could result in a small pullback to previous support (now resistance).
After confirmation, price is likely to continue downward in a wave-like structure.
Fibonacci levels or key support zones will act as profit-taking targets.
4️⃣ Trade Setup & Targets
🔻 Short Setup (Bearish Trade Idea)
Entry: On a successful retest of the broken support zone.
Stop-Loss (SL): Above the previous resistance zone for risk management.
Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP 1: $81,638
TP 2: $77,897
Final Target: $74,990
5️⃣ Summary & Conclusion
📌 BTC/USD has broken out of a Rising Wedge pattern, confirming a bearish trend.
📌 A pullback and retest may occur before further downside continuation.
📌 The chart suggests a short opportunity, targeting lower support zones for potential profit-taking.
📌 Traders should manage risk with a well-placed stop-loss above key resistance.
This setup aligns with technical analysis principles, confirming a high-probability short trade for BTC. 🚀
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Bullish Reversal Confirmed?!
Bitcoin turned bullish after the yesterday's FOMC.
The price broke and closed above a significant daily resistance.
I see a confirmed bullish reversal pattern now:
a cup & handle with a broken horizontal neckline.
I think that the market will continue growing and reach at least 90500 level soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Btcusd to moonThis Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart on a daily timeframe (1D) from Coinbase shows a recent downtrend, with the price currently at $85,749.48, down 1.30%. A potential bullish reversal is suggested with an upward projection toward the $100,000+ range, as indicated by the hand-drawn price path.
Key observations:
Volume Profile on the Right: Indicates high trading activity around current levels, with less resistance above $90,000.
Projected Price Movement: Suggests a breakout from recent lows, a pullback, and then a strong upward move ("BTC to the moon").
Buyer-Seller Levels: The buy price is slightly above the current market price, indicating demand.
This analysis suggests bullish momentum, but confirmation through further price action and volume is needed.
BITCOIN - Long Trade Idea - Possible Move Higher Incoming...This video follows up on the chart I posted last night, where I suggested that Bitcoin could break past its all-time highs and potentially double in value from its current levels.
This analysis is based on the AriasWave methodology, which offers a clearer perspective compared to the often-confusing Elliott Wave approach.
Check out the related idea below for the original chart, and in this video, I update that analysis with key levels to watch and potential risks to consider.
BitcoinSupport and Stop Loss Levels:
Support at $85,058.00 (marked in green).
Stop-loss level at $84,500.00 (marked in red).
Target Price (Take Profit):
$89,230.00 is the marked profit-taking level.
Trend & Price Action:
BTC has broken out of a descending trendline.
Recent bullish momentum led to a price spike.
A minor retracement is occurring.
There is a Fair Value Gap (FVG) below the price, suggesting possible retracement before another leg up.
Trading Plan Based on This Analysis:
Bullish Setup:
Entry likely around $85,058 - $85,430.
Stop loss at $84,500.
Target $89,230 (Potential ~4% upside).
Chart Analysis Price Action:
The chart shows ETHUSD trading at 2,041.01, with a recent decline of -3.36 (-0.41%).
The high (HI) for the session was 2,044.00, and the low (L) was 1,664.36.
The price is currently near the session’s high, which suggests some resistance around the 2,044 level.
Trend:
The chart spans from 2009 to 2025, indicating a long-term uptrend for ETHUSD.
However, the recent price action (2024-2025) shows consolidation or a potential pullback, as the price is struggling to break above 2,044.
Key Levels:
Support: The low of 1,664.36 is a strong support level.
Resistance: The high of 2,044.00 is acting as a resistance level. If the price breaks above this, it could target higher levels.
Your short position at 2,037 is just below the resistance, which is a logical entry point for a short trade.
Momentum:
The price is currently in a slight downtrend, as indicated by the -0.41% decline.
The fact that the price is struggling to break above 2,044 suggests bearish momentum in the short term.
Volatility Period: Around March 22-25
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Have a nice day today.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
I think it always falls less than expected and rises more than expected.
Therefore, trades should always be done in split trades.
This volatility period is expected to last from March 21st to 26th.
Therefore, the key is whether it can break out of the downtrend channel and maintain the price after this volatility period.
In order to do that, it is important to see if it can be supported near the Fibonacci ratio range of 2.618 (87814.27) ~ 1.618 (89050.0).
If it breaks out of the downtrend channel and falls, if it does not fall below the downtrend line, it is expected to rise.
In other words, we need to check if it is supported near the Fibonacci ratio point of 2.24 (83646.12).
If not, if it falls, it is expected to touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
In other words, it is expected to touch near 73499.86.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
BTCUSD a potential reversal before rallying upBTCUSD is recovering and trading to the upside based on the chart.
A potential pullback after the liquidation of equal highs could occur this week, reaching the unmitigated FVG level of 80,811 - 80,556 before surging to the major resistance level of 87,414.
Bitcoin long-term holder behavior shift signalsBitcoin long-term holder behavior shift signals 'unique market dynamic' — Research BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Bitcoin’s corrective phase set a four-month low at $76,600 on March 11. Despite this decline, long-term holders have continued to hold large amounts of BTC, suggesting a “unique market dynamic moving forward,” new research says.
“Long-Term Holder activity remains largely subdued, with a notable decline in their sell-side pressure,” Glassnode said in a March 18 markets report.
Long-term holders show signs of bullishness
Bitcoin’s recovery comes as selling pressure among Long-Term Holders (LTHs) — wallets that have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days — begins to wane.
The Binary Spending Indicator, a metric used to determine when LTHs are spending a significant proportion of their holdings in a sustained manner, shows a slowdown (see chart below) while the LTH supply is also beginning to rebound after several months of decline.
“This suggests that there is a greater willingness to hold than to spend coins among this cohort,” Glassnode noted, adding:
“This perhaps represents a shift in sentiment, with Long-Term Holder behavior moving away from sell-side distribution."
Bull market tops are often marked by intense sell-side pressure and strong profit-taking among LTHs, which signals a complete shift to bearish behavior.
However, despite Bitcoin's drawdown in recent weeks, this investor cohort continues to hold a large portion of their profits, especially for this later stage of the cycle, Glassnode said.
This could suggest that long-term holders may still be expecting more BTC price upside later in the year.
“This interesting observation may indicate a more unique market dynamic moving forward.”
New Bitcoin whale accumulation reshapes markets
New Bitcoin whales, addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC, where each coin has an average acquisition age of less than six months, are aggressively accumulating, according to CryptoQuant data.
This signals strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term outlook among the new large investors.
These wallets have collectively acquired over 1 million BTC since November 2024, “positioning themselves as one of the most influential market participants,” said CryptoQuant independent analyst Onchained in a March 7 analysis.
The chart below shows that their pace has accelerated notably in recent weeks, “accumulating more than 200,000 BTC just this month.”
“This sustained inflow highlights a shift in market dynamics, suggesting increased institutional or high-net-worth participation. ”
Meanwhile, several crypto executives have told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s recent price drop was a “normal correction,” with the market just waiting for a new narrative and a cycle top yet to come.
But not everyone agrees. For instance, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said that the Bitcoin bull cycle is over. He added:
“Expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
2 Paths for Bitcoin in this 60-Day CycleThere are two possible scenarios for the rest of this cycle:
1️⃣ Bearish Scenario (Most Likely)
Bitcoin hit a cycle low at $78,000 on February 28th.
It initially showed strength but quickly reversed, forming a failed cycle.
This suggests a lower low is likely before the cycle ends.
If holding BTC, the best strategy is to sell at the next 3-day Cycle high (message me if you don’t have access to the Cycle indicators), expected next week.
2️⃣ Bullish Alternative
If the recent drop was caused by macro factors rather than natural cycle movement, we could still see a higher high before the cycle ends.
The 1-week Cycle (red line) is forming a bottoming pattern, which could indicate upside potential toward $90,000+.
How I’m Approaching This Cycle
I purchased BTC below the current price and plan to hold through this cycle. My reasoning:
We are currently at the bottom of the mid-term trend, and I expect a strong rally in the near future.
As mentioned in my previous newsletter, it’s crucial to combine the 60-day cycle with other timeframes:
2-week, 1-week, 3-day, and 1-day cycles all provide additional confirmation.
ETH/USDT 1H: Bullish Breakout Holding – Next Stop $2,175?ETH/USDT 1H: Bullish Breakout Holding – Next Stop $2,175?
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Current Market Conditions (Confidence: 8/10):
Price at $2,043, maintaining strong momentum following a breakout.
RSI at 67.54, approaching overbought territory but still has room for continuation.
Clear break above previous resistance at $1,925, confirming bullish structure.
No significant bearish divergences present, reinforcing continuation potential.
LONG Trade Setup:
Entry: $2,035 - $2,045 zone.
Targets:
T1: $2,100 (short-term resistance).
T2: $2,175 (extended target).
Stop Loss: $1,925 (below recent support).
Risk Score:
6/10 – Lower risk due to strong structure, but resistance at $2,200 remains a key level to
monitor.
Market Maker Activity:
Accumulation evident at higher levels, with minimal selling pressure.
Clean breakout above resistance suggests further bullish continuation.
Key resistance ahead at $2,200, with strong support at $1,875.
Recommendation:
Long positions remain favorable within the $2,035 - $2,045 entry range.
Watch $2,100 and $2,175 for profit-taking zones.
Monitor volume on the approach to $2,200 to confirm breakout strength.
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BTC/USDT 1H: Bullish Momentum Holding – Next Target $87,500?BTC/USDT 1H: Bullish Momentum Holding – Next Target $87,500?
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Current Market Conditions (Confidence: 8/10):
Price at $85,494, showing strong bullish momentum with a recent breakout.
RSI at 69.71, approaching overbought but still has room to push higher.
Clear order block formation at $83,600, confirming institutional demand.
Previous resistance at $84,000 now acting as support, strengthening the bullish structure.
LONG Trade Setup:
Entry: $85,200 - $85,500 zone.
Targets:
T1: $86,000 (key short-term resistance).
T2: $87,500 (extended target).
Stop Loss: $84,000 (below recent support).
Risk Score:
7/10 – Elevated due to extended move, but structure remains bullish.
Market Maker Activity:
A
ccumulation visible at higher levels, suggesting Smart Money positioning for another push.
Minimal bearish divergence present, supporting further continuation.
Break above $84K suggests sustained momentum, but watch resistance at $86K for reaction.
Recommendation:
Long positions remain favorable within the $85,200 - $85,500 entry range.
Monitor $86K resistance for breakout potential; failure to hold may lead to a pullback.
Use tight stops to protect against a sudden liquidity sweep.
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Btcusd trade idea e read caption This chart represents a technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe from Coinbase. Here are the key elements of the analysis:
1. Order Block (Green Zone):
The green zone represents a significant order block, indicating an area where institutional buying or selling activity previously took place. The price has reacted strongly to this zone, confirming its importance.
2. Entry Point (White Line & Label):
The price has broken above the order block, suggesting a bullish entry. This level is marked as an optimal entry zone for a long position.
3. Price Movement & Target Levels (Yellow Arrows):
Two yellow arrows suggest that the price is expected to move upwards towards key resistance or profit target zones.
4. Target Levels (Dashed Lines & Blue Labels):
$88,000.17 and $90,681.03 are identified as potential profit targets, indicating resistance levels where the price may face selling pressure.
5. Current Price & Trend:
Bitcoin is currently trading at $85,511.26, with a 3.40% increase. The strong breakout suggests bullish momentum.
6. Market Volume (Right-Side Volume Profile):
The volume profile on the right shows high trading activity around the $84,000 level, which could act as support in case of a pullback.
Summary:
A breakout above a key order block suggests bullish continuation.
Entry is positioned above the breakout.
Target levels are set at $88,000 and $90,681.
High probability of upward movement based on volume and trend analysis.
This analysis suggests a bullish setup with potential gains if the price sustains above the order block and moves toward the target zones.
Trading Is Not Gambling : Become A Better Trade Part IOver the last few weeks/months, I've tried to help hundreds of traders learn the difference between trading and gambling.
Trading is where you take measured (risk-restricted) attempts to profit from market moves.
Gambling is where you let your emotions and GREED overtake your risk management decisions - going to BIG WINS on every trade.
I think of gambling in the stock market as a person who continually looks for the big 50% to 150%++ gains on options every day. Someone who will pass up the 20%, 30%, and 40% profits and "let it ride to HERO or ZERO" on most trades.
That's not trading. That's flat-out GAMBLING.
I'm going to start a new series of training videos to try to help you understand how trading operates and how you need to learn to protect capital while taking strategic opportunities for profits and growth.
This is not going to be some dumbed-down example of how to trade. I'm going to try to explain the DOs and DO N'Ts of trading vs. gambling.
If you want to be a gambler - then get used to being broke most of the time.
I'll work on this video's subsequent parts later today and this week.
I hope this helps. At least it is a starting point for what I want to teach all of you.
Get some.
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