WARNING! Bitcoin BTC Can Crush To $75k Again!Hello, Skyrexians!
Recently, when the BINANCE:BTCUSDT price was below $80k we told you that reversal will come soon and $140k is next, but this correction can lasts longer, that we supposed. There is a high chance to see the another one dip to $75k and we will explain why.
Let's take a look at the 4h time frame. Those who read our articles know that Bitcoin is in wave C and this wave shall have 5 waves, but can be like an ending diagonal. We suppose this scenario. In this case double divergence with Awesome oscillator is likely. Now we have the high probability to see wave 5. This scenario is likely in price breaks down the GETTEX:82K key fractal level and confirm short setup.
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Skyrexio Team
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1-BTCUSD
BTC LONG TP:87,500 16-03-2025After the manipulation that caused us to exit at break-even, we can now look to enter a long position in the range of 87,000 to 88,000, with a potential profit and a risk-reward ratio of over 6.
This analysis is based on a 2-hour timeframe, so we expect this to unfold within 24 hours.
Make sure to follow me to keep trading together and stay updated on the latest developments!
The current BTC chart, incorporating my 'flash-crash' thesisThis chart illustrates the current Bitcoin pattern, with my 'April flash crash thesis.'
I believe we will see another thrust lower into the green box ranges before a spring into the fifth wave. However, the fifth wave will be a "false breakout," as a flash crash in mid to late April is likely to occur, intentionally designed to sweep liquidity by liquidating overleveraged positions and triggering stop losses—driving price past the previous low set in the green box, only for the market to recover shortly thereafter and continue its breakout to the upside. This breakout will likely push beyond the pattern, taking out the all-time high, and setting a new high somewhere in the 20K to 25K range.
There could be some opportunities in the next 4 to 6 weeks, but with opportunity comes risk. Always use a proper risk management strategy suited to your skill level and wallet size.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
BITCOIN When unsure, look at the bigger pictureSimple, yet highly informative especially in times of high uncertainty like the current one.
Bitcoin / BTCUSD has a Full Cycle of 4 years.
1 year of Bear and 3 years of Bull.
Right now we have entered the final year of the 3 year Bull Cycle, so we have a few more months left until the end of the year.
Come October, we can start considering a top for BTC.
Until then.. Buy the dip.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
BTC/USD - Short back to $73,000 I have entered short.
I went short because BTC was lining up at major resistance around $84K. It was hitting the 300MA, RSI was oversold, and MACD was starting to show divergence. On top of that, volume was weakening near resistance, and there was a huge wall of sell orders stacking up. All signs pointed to a solid short setup.
I expect a new all time high later this year after that area o support has been tested.
Bitcoin Sell SetupHi everyone.
I think this area has a lot of potential to put a sell order. We can set an order or wait for a CHoCH in lower TF and then find another entry setup.
I'll update TPs later.
Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian
HBAR LONGwe can see range on daily chart. We are now on the lower band where we can look for long setups. Little specaultive trade can be seen on chart.
What give the confidence in this trade?
if you look OBV is incresing specialy from prevous low the OBV value is much higher!
Tha means we have strong buying presure.
Have a nice day and Be safe ;)
LONG ON BITCOINMarket structure wise Bitcoin looks like its ready to Rise.
Other political and economic factors are also being looked at as to why I am buying bitcoin.
But Its mainly The Market structure shift Im seeing on the charts that has me hitting buy!
Im looking to make about 7-8k points on BTC.
BITCOIN BULLISH TO $116?! (UPDATE)Since I posted this the other day, Bitcoin has been pushing up in profit!
After a redistribution phase where late buyers got wrecked at the top the market, we've seen price drop back down liquidating billions in buy orders in the past few weeks. I believe this Wave 4 shakeout will now be followed by another bull run, like we are seeing happen now.
BTCUSD: TSI shows that this is the LAST BEST BUYBitcoin is neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 46.997, MACD = 3171.400, ADX = 55.280) as it found support on the 1W MA50 last 3 weeks and is trying to capitalize on this with a bullish reaction. The rebound is closer than ever and in our opinion based on the True Strength Index (TSI), this may be the last best buy opportunity of this Cycle before it tops. The 1W TSI is now on its long term Buy Zone, last time it was there was on the August 5th 2024 bottom.
The TSI basically marks bottoms and tops on the last 3 Cycles in particular. More specifically, it makes 5 tops in total, every time it approaches 1.00, it is a signal to sell and wait for it to approach -1.00. We are now as mentioned the closest we've been to -1.00 in 7 months and we came here from Top 4. The Cycle technically has one more Top (5) to give so practically the current levels are the last best buy opportunity of the Cycle.
From top-to-bottom, the 2014-2017 Cycle lasted 1470 days, the next one (2018-2021) 1430 days, so if there is a declining rate of 40 days on each passing Cycle, we can start expecting a new Cycle Top by September 2025. The price can be at least 130k be then.
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This is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD)This is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) showing a key resistance level around $86,527 and a potential bearish move towards lower support zones.
Analysis:
Price is currently trading near the resistance zone, struggling to break above it.
A sell setup is suggested, expecting rejection from resistance.
The first target is around $78,500, with an extended downside target at $75,869 and possibly $71,580 if momentum continues.
A stop-loss level is placed above resistance at $86,527, indicating a risk management strategy.
The overall structure suggests bearish sentiment unless price breaks above resistance.
Potential Trading Plan:
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Short below resistance confirmation.
Targets at $78,500, $75,869, and $71,580.
Stop-loss above $86,527.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
A break and close above $86,527 could invalidate the bearish setup.
Bitcoin BEARISH chart - Some reasons to remain AlertAs I have said many times, I always look to Both sides. Bullish and Bearish.
This way, I manage to always know what I am going to do should a Market Direction change.
I got caught out once before..NEVER AGAIN
So, While so many, including Me, look towards Further gains in 2025, there are some indications that A TOP has already been reached.
There is NO guarantee that another will come in.
The First Clue to a change towards BEARISH is in the main chart.
PA got rejected off the very same Trend line that rejected PA in 2017 and 2021, on all occasions, pushing PA into a Bearish Drop.
That alone should make you Think hard.
Next, we have the NUPL chart ( NET UNREALISED~ED PROFIT LOSS )
The Arrow points towards the line, that once crossed has shown us that the high possible Profits available begin to Tempt traders to lock in profit..to SELL.
Once above this line, the next line has NEVER been crossed. ALL profit taking occurs in this Zone. You Will also notice how in 2021, when we had 2 tops, the NUPL reached High, Twice and then fell as traders Took the profits.
We have just had 2 tops and have just dropped out of the profit taking Range.
We may return, we may not. We have to wait but all the while, understanding the more profit taken now, people who buy at current price ranges will have to wait Longer to claim this same level of profit, assuming that the price Rises from here....Or they are in Loss...
The SOPR ( Spent Outpuit Profit Ratio ) , shows us that these profits have been taken
The thing to see here is the level of Selling, or taking of profit. The SOPR line is down near Neutral,
This shows the Selling has Stopped. if we look back at the previous chart, we see that the level of profit is dropping. Less reason to sell....and while PA Drops as it is, there is even more possible LOSS incurred. The people who bought the Top are now getting worried.
Also notice the "labels" Top ( Bearish signals) and Bottom ( Bullish signals)
We had a Bearish warning around 6 weeks before current Top.
The Bullish signal on the bottom line Stopped about 4 weeks ago and you will notice how the "line" has dropped below the neutral line, indicating people accepting Losses, just to get out....
Again, this does not mean we will continue Lower but it is a Loud Warning Bell
Fot the Level pf profit to return, we need one of Two things, or Both, to happen
1) Price to Drop so we can Buy Low and wait for PA to rise again and so make profit
2) Buy now. ( Buy the Dip ) and Wait and Hope the Market goes to the prices some people say will happen ( Some are Stupid for this cycle BTW )
The MVRV chart helps us see where that Market is heading.
MVRV = Market Value to Realized Value. It is an indicator used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued
I am not going to get to techie here but that yellow line is called Z Score and we are in ATH territory when it is above the green MVRV, as can be seen in the chart
We are currently Dropping FAST and Z Score is very slightly BELOW the MVRV line.
This happened in Summer 2024 and we recovered as you can see.
This Means Bitcoin is becoming Less Overvalued but a Long way from Undervalued
What I see here more than anything is how the recent High was up on that line where the 2021 ATH was rejected from. It was the same level of Value that made people say, "OK, This is great, I am out" and Sell.
Again, understand, the higher the BTC price goes, the heavier it is to move. We may not manage to get a Bitcoin Way up where that 1st 2021 ATH was. Hugely over Valued.
THIS is what I am watching more than anything
So, are we in a Bear Market ?
NO - But it would be easy to fall into a Mini Bear here, or longer one, if the market does not recover by mid June Latest
Why ?
Because, as ever, for me, The weekly MACD is the -- THE thing to watch
If that MACD drops below neutral when it arrives at Neutral, That is a Big red Flag....
But , in an ideal world, we should be able to understand the possibility of that happening BEFORE it does.
The charts above help with that - How mush profit is available, is it being Taken, what potential for more
March as a monthly candle, is very likely to close RED, as mentioned in other posts, It is APRIL that will really decide where we go next. It needs to be GREEN, even if only marginally.
My decision point is if the MVRV continues to Fall past that 236 fib line.....and stays below
Then the MACD and SOPR
If Capitulation begins - I BUY MORE - at the Bottom ( possibly around 65K - But I do not expect hat this year......
Bear Markets are not all bad....................
Have AI sold any Bitcoin Yet ?
NO - thankfully, I still hold enough profit on my earlier buys to cover the smaller losses I may make while I begin to buy again now, which I am doing, in small quanties...Just incase we move higher soon..Because, as I said before, I look to both sides....and I am more Bullish than Bearish right now.....But open to change.
I hope you all understand this logic
BTCUSD Analysis StrategyBitcoin prices are currently hovering around $84,000 as the market's bull-bear struggle intensifies.
In the short term, Bitcoin remains in a sideways consolidation and base-building phase. Traders are advised to remain nimble and adjust strategies based on the actual breakout direction.
Bitcoin Trading Strategy
sell @ 87000
buy @ 81500,78500
Finally, I'd like to remind every investor that the cryptocurrency market is inherently highly volatile, and every decision you make may have an impact on your investment returns.
you can visit my profile for free strategy updates every day.
Quantum Doom for Bitcoin?Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency known for its promise of a decentralized structure, faces an existential crisis due to advances in quantum computing that threaten its cryptographic foundation. The article "Bitcoin's Imminent Collapse: The Quantum Threat and Cryptographic Vulnerabilities" outlines a convergence of risks – technological breakthroughs, government influence, and market dynamics – that could potentially bring Bitcoin's value to zero.
At the heart of the danger lies the SHA-256 algorithm, which secures the Bitcoin blockchain. Quantum computers, such as those from D-Wave, which claimed to have achieved "quantum supremacy" in 2025, may soon be able to reverse the hashing operation, revealing private keys and destabilizing the entire network. This potential breach, known as "Q-Day," could severely damage trust in Bitcoin and lead to a mass exodus of investors.
The forecast becomes even more alarming given the mysterious origin of SHA-256, developed by the NSA (U.S. National Security Agency) and standardized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The article raises disturbing questions about the possibility that the NSA possesses unknown vulnerabilities or "backdoors" within the algorithm. Past seizures of Bitcoin by the U.S. government, such as the recovery of a hacker's wallet in 2021, suggest an extraordinary ability to bypass its security – perhaps through undisclosed inside knowledge.
Meanwhile, NIST's push for post-quantum cryptography (PQC) hints at the impending obsolescence of SHA-256, but Bitcoin's failure to adopt these alternatives critically exposes it. This lack of preparedness increases the risk, as rivals with quantum computers could act before defenses are strengthened.
Market signals add another layer of concern. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in 2023 by financial giants like BlackRock and Vanguard suggests a strategic move where institutional players offload risks onto less experienced retail investors. Combined with repeated government seizures that cast doubt on Bitcoin's anonymity, a scenario is emerging where the cryptocurrency stands on the brink.
The conclusion is that Bitcoin's vision of decentralization may not survive this perfect storm – a quantum threat, cryptographic weaknesses, and orchestrated market shifts. For stakeholders, the message is clear: adapt quickly or risk potential collapse.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video for 3-17: GAP PotentialAs we start moving into the Excess Phase Peak pattern consolidation phase, I believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt a moderate rally for about 3-5+ days, then roll into a deep selling mode after March 21-24.
I don't believe we have reached a bottom - yet.
I do see a lot of people talking about "the bottom is in" and I urge all of you to THINK.
What do you believe will be the basis of US and GLOBAL economic growth starting RIGHT NOW?
Can you name one thing that will be the driver of economic expansion and activity?
I can't either.
Thus, I suggest traders prepare for more sideways consolidation range trading over the next 60+ days as hedge assets and currencies attempt to balance risks.
BTCUSD, Gold, Silver should all be fairly quiet this week. I'm not expecting any huge price moves this week.
I expect the SPY/QQQ & BTCUSD to move a bit higher while Gold and Silver melt upward a bit further.
Then, after March 21, I expect bigger volatility and a broad rotation in the SPY/QQQ/Bitcoin where Gold/Silver will start a bigger move higher.
Get some.
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BTCUSDT Upside potentialThe BTC/USDT market is currently consolidating above the 80,000 level after breaking below February's low. Recently, a large weekly doji candle has emerged, signaling ongoing sideways movement. At present, the price remains within this week's trading range.
From a broader perspective, price action appears to be narrowing, forming a falling wedge pattern. With the market consolidating just below the downward trendline, a potential breakout above this level could signal further upside momentum. If the price manages to close above last week's high, it could lead to the formation of a solid inverse head and shoulders pattern, reinforcing the possibility of an upward extension. The next key target lies at the resistance zone around 88,000
Gold Short Setup: Double Top Rejection and Key Sell TargetsThe chart indicates a potential double-top formation near the 3005 level, suggesting a possible reversal if bearish confirmation appears. The price is testing a key resistance zone, and a rejection could lead to a decline toward the rising trendline for support. A confirmed break below this trendline might trigger further downside movement. However, a breakout above resistance could invalidate the bearish setup and signal continuation of the uptrend. Waiting for a clear confirmation is crucial before making any trading decisions.
For a short-term sell setup, potential targets:
- First target: 2,979 (initial support)
- Second target: 2,960 (if momentum increases)
If price breaks below these levels with strong bearish confirmation, then 2,940 could be the next short-term target.
Long BTC, Long MSTR, Neutral to XAUExpecting BTC to consolidate relative to Gold for a few more days and then breaking out and outperform Gold. The ratios make it a more attractive trade with more upside potenial. Im buying NASDAQ:MSTR because of it´s leveraged bet in Bitcoin. I believe Microstrategy will outperform BTC in this scenario breaking out to new all time highs.
CME:BTC1!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
NASDAQ:MSTR
March 14 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
There is no Nasdaq indicator announcement
It is not visible on the chart screen,
but in the analysis article on March 11,
I connected today's strategy while maintaining a long position of $79,188 at the long position entry point.
Also, there was a recent booster manipulation and the participation rate was low,
so I kept the analysis article private for the past few days,
but how was the difference compared to other analysis articles?
I wonder if you felt the gap in my analysis article.
It was not a mistake to make the analysis article public today,
but I think it would be good to see it as a small gesture of goodwill because new people supported me yesterday and today.
It is currently moving sideways after a slight upward touch,
and compared to Tether dominance, I created an aggressive strategy. The important part today is that NASDAQ only needs to move sideways
If it crashes or breaks the previous low
Be careful because Bitcoin will definitely follow
I'll summarize it very simply and briefly.
*When the red finger moves
Long position strategy
1. 82407.5 dollars long position entry section / cut-off price when the green support line breaks
(It can be pushed up to section 2 at most.)
2. 84965.5 dollars long position 1st target -> Top 2nd target
Currently, the top section is roughly the center line of the Bollinger Band daily chart.
Rather than touching this section and switching short positions
It would be better to try to re-enter after long liquidation. (The mid-term pattern is broken based on Tether Dominance)
Today, the second sky blue support line
is a safe zone where the upward rebound can be maintained
From the bottom section deviation, the next support line
is the previous low point section marked below, 77,611 dollars.
Up to this point, please use my analysis as a reference only
I hope you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you for your hard work this week.
BITCOIN Is this the 'most normal' Cycle of them all ??This is not the first time we use a Convergence/ Divergence approach to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles and certainly not the last one. On the previous one, it helped us to succesffuly predict the end of 2022 bottom but what we couldn't anticipate is how smooth the new/ current Cycle 5 (orange trend-line) would be.
As the title says, this is probably the 'most normal' Cycle of them all, as BTC has been trading within a Channel Up (orange) since the Bear Cycle's bottom more than 2 years ago.
To get a better understanding of this claim, we compare Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles from their previous top to the next one (with the exception of the first), on this complete mapping analysis, having them all displayed on top of another: Cycle 1 (green trend-line), Cycle 2 (red), Cycle 3 (blue), Cycle 4 (black) and the current one Cycle 5 (orange).
** Diminishing Returns **
As you see, first of all, this showcases the Theory of Diminishing Returns, which suggests that as the market grows and higher adoption is achieved, BTC will show less and less returns in each Cycle. Every Cycle Top has been lower from the previous one.
** Cycle Convergence - Divergence **
Secondly, all Cycles particularly during their Bear Phase and for a short time after, tend to follow a common path. The illustration on this analysis is very clear as it starts with each Cycle's Bear Phase and you can see that when they diverge, they converge again quickly. The most recent Bear Phase was not surprisingly as long as Cycle 4 and almost Cycle 3, which was to be expected as the market has shown an amazing degree of symmetry in the past 10 years. Note that this is also the model that helped as determine very early in 2023 that Cycle 3 would be the best fit for the new Cycle in terms of price action and without a doubt, BTC has been mostly replicating that Cycle.
** What's next for the current Cycle? **
If we compare the current Cycle (5) with Cycle 3 we can see that the Convergence - Divergence Model is holding. So far when Cycle 5 converged, it immediately diverged. And this is exactly what it has been doing since the December High and the marginal January All Time High (ATH). It has started to diverge significantly from Cycle 3 so what the recent pull-back to the 1W MA50 achieved is to normalize it and is about to touch it.
Now that the price hit the bottom of its +2 year Channel Up, we expect to rise, which will achieved convergence and contact with both Cycles 3 and 4, which is what they both did in their last 150 days of their respective Bull Cycles. Technically, this can take Cycle 5 to around $150k.
As we've first mentioned in the crypto space, regarding the last Bear Market being the 'smoothest' in history, we can securely say now that the current Bull Cycle is also the 'most normal' ever.
So what do you think? Does this Cycle regression model offer any useful conclusion as to where Bitcoin might top and if so, is this Cycle indeed the 'most normal' in the history? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - Med-Term OutlookThe current BINANCE:BTCUSDT chart is forming an EXP model (turquoise), indicating a potential correction before the next phase of active growth.
Main Scenario
The most likely development suggests a price retracement to the $80,845 – $77,890 range (purple zone), corresponding to unclosed gaps on CME. This range is positioned above the 100% level of the model ($75,949), making it an optimal area for the completion of the correction before the continuation of the upward movement.
Two possible correction paths:
1️⃣ Decline from current levels – BTC gradually breaks local support, tests the 4th point of the model (~$91,341), and then moves towards the CME Gap area.
2️⃣ ATH breakout ($109,354) before a decline – A short-term rally is possible before a deep correction into the $80,000 – $77,000 range.
After testing this zone, a reversal movement may form, with targets at the 1st point of the model ($109,354) and beyond. Final confirmation of the uptrend will depend on further market dynamics.
Once this cycle is completed, a transition to the altcoin growth phase can be expected.
Secondary Scenario
Under favorable conditions, BTC may avoid a correction into the CME Gap zone and continue its upward movement without retesting support levels. However, in the current market structure, this scenario remains less probable.
Alternative Scenario
In the event of an extended correction, BTC could break the 100% model level ($75,949) and test the 200% level ($63,226).
Such a development may occur due to external market shocks, leading to mass liquidations of margin positions. However, even in this case, a rapid price recovery is expected.
Bitcoin Weekly SMA are finally into Sequential order -and now ?A nice simple post here.
As you can see, in Late January, the 5 main SMA ( Simple Moving Averages) finaly got into sequential order Under PA
This is a sign that PA is bullish.
As you can see, in September 202, this happened and PA began its rise after a sharp drop just before hand.
It is a bit different this time in that we have dropped AFTER that SMA order was made.
But it is still a Good sign
HOWEVER - what is important to note, is how PA has fallen below that 21 and we are currently hitting off the 50, searching for Support again.
I remain BULLISH and I am sure that within a few weeks, we shall move back over that 21.
From were the SMA went into order in 2020, it took about 6 months to reach the first ATH in 2021
PA is rising Much slower than in that cycle but If that repeats, we can see a New Real ATH around July / August
I would say that is too early to be honest and so I expect larter. As I said, PA is rising slower this time around.
But, anyway, Good News that the SMA have remained in order so far...
Something to look forward to