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1-BTCUSD

Bitcoin's local perspective 17.03.2025In Friday's analysis "How Trump's Policy Will Impact the Crypto Market", we presented a bearish model for the medium-term perspective👇 Today, our key focus is on the $78,300 level (the 4th point of our model), which serves as significant support. It's important to note the presence of an unfilled gap on CME at the $85,905 level ($85,943 in index terms)👇 We assess the probability of closing this gap in the near term as high – either from current positions or after retesting the $78,300 level. How will we act? If price moves toward $85,943 from current levels, we plan to partially close our #ETH position that was accumulated during the March 11 decline. In the scenario of a retest of $78,300, we will consider opening a long position on #BTC with a target of $85,943.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TSFC
1
BTC, seed at 78k.. we are goin for new ATH again this year! BTC, corrected heavily after tapping a parabolic ATH high at 108K levels which warranted a mid term trim down -- which is healthy and sustainable. Price overextended to unforeseen numbers to 70k range to tap 77k levels. An exact precision tap of 61.8 FIB extension zone -- which replicated the same scenario during the 50k era pre-surge season before the massive rally to 100k. Both are bouncing off in this 61.8 fib area with laser accuracy precision which just manifested last night. We are now at the rare accumulation zone signal -- a pre surge basing area where long term buyers converge after that 61.8 fib perfect tap. The diagram above is already showing hint of initial shift of the current metrics. The visual clarity of the signal is day and night. You can decipher it easily. This signal never missed since 15k era. Batting average is 4 out of 4. Ideal seeding was the lowest at 77k. Target: ATH retap at 108k Mid target 120-140k levels. TAYOR. Trade safely.
Long
by JSAL
3
17/03/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $85,306.40 Last weeks low: $76,622.98 Midpoint: $80,964.69 It's FOMC week again! Last week it was CPI week and inflation numbers came in under forecast signaling the Tradfi market sell-off and implementation of tariffs have at least had a positive impact on the consumer price index, a 2.8% print 0.1% lower than forecast. As this relates to FOMC the forecast is a non mover with interest rates staying at 4.5%. However this does not necessarily mean that FOMC will be a non event in terms of the markets, volatility is always expected and with a suspected Trump insider opening a $380m 40x short position on BTC with a liquidation price of $86,600. I expect this price to be hit at some point this week purely because CT is targeting this account that has had a perfect 8/8 trade record to stop hunt it, I think FOMC could proved the volatility to do it. The general structure of BTC as a whole despite this stop hunt narrative is bearish, after losing $91k support and a retest confirming the level as new resistance structurally it makes sense to revisit FWB:73K to retest it as support. This would be horrible for the broader altcoin market that has suffered greatly so far this year but it would eliminate the need to fill the FVG in the future. This week I am keeping a close eye on that stop hunt and FOMC as I feel that will dictate if we retest $91K or $73K.
by ProR35
2
Bitcoin under 40k? Possible, but is this also probable?In life, anything is possible , and when it comes to crypto, everything is possible . But, as I mentioned in my educational post yesterday, there’s a big difference between what is possible and what is probable. In this article, I want to analyze the possibility of Bitcoin dropping below $40,000 and more importantly, what would need to happen for this scenario to shift from just possible to truly probable. ________________________________________ BTC — From All-Time High to Distribution? If we look at the Bitcoin chart, we notice that after the first all-time high very close to $100,000 at the end of November, the market began a consolidation phase. Although we saw two more all-time highs — one around $108,000 in mid-December and another near $110,000 in January — the entire structure from late November to late February appears to be a distribution pattern rather than a healthy continuation. Once Bitcoin broke below $90,000, we can consider this distribution phase complete, with a target for short positions around $75,000 — a level I’ve highlighted in my previous posts. ________________________________________ Long-Term Logarithmic Chart — Diminishing Returns and the Bigger Picture Looking at the long-term logarithmic chart, we can see a clear pattern of diminishing returns: • The first major leg up, starting in late 2011, was approximately 600x and lasted about two years, followed by a correction. • The next leg was 100x, spanning four years, followed by another correction. • Then, a 20x rally, which lasted just over a year. • Finally, the most recent leg up has been around 7x. What’s crucial here is that returns are decreasing and, even more importantly, the last leg up looks more like an ascending channel than a parabolic move like in previous cycles. ________________________________________ The Significance of the Ascending Channel This ascending channel is not unusual — the market has matured, and big players are now involved, reducing volatility. However, ascending channels on the long-term often signal potential reversals, rather than continuation. ________________________________________ What Would Make $40,000 Probable? Now, let’s address the real question: What would need to happen for Bitcoin to drop to $40,000? Zooming in on the logarithmic chart, it becomes evident that the $72,000 - $75,000 zone is a major support confluence. If this area is broken — meaning a weekly candle closes below this level — the scenario of BTC dropping toward $40,000 becomes probable. The target zone I’m watching in this case is $32,000 - $36,000, a strong historical support that is clearly visible on higher timeframes. ________________________________________ Conclusion — Watch the Key Levels, Not What you Hope To conclude: • Bitcoin dropping to those extreme levels is possible, but not yet probable. • Probabilities will shift only if key support levels are broken — specifically $72k-$75k. • The market has matured, cycles are changing, and returns are diminishing, so expecting a repeat of past parabolic runs may not be realistic. • As traders and investors, we must focus on the charts and key levels, not on hopium and hype.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
13
Bitcoin: can it be the $90K?There has been a higher volatility on the crypto market during the previous week. The markets are still making shiny steps toward the upside, influenced by the macro sentiment and potential negative effects of the trade tariffs. Uncertainty is still strong on financial markets, where BTC also belongs as now part of mainstream markets. During the week, BTC was traded in a more bearish manner, with shy bullish moves. It still managed to finish the week with a weekly gain. The lowest weekly level of BTC was at $77,5K at the beginning of the week. The uptrend was holding for the rest of the week, where BTC managed to get back toward the $85K resistance at the end of the week. The RSI reached a clear oversold market side, from where it started the reversal. Current RSI level stands at the level of 43, which is still not showing that the market clearly started its reversal toward the overbought market. The moving average of 50 days started its higher convergence toward the MA200, with still a distance between two lines. Current charts are showing that the BTC is trying to make some recovery from previous week’s losses. But it seems that this is going to be a heavy task for BTC. Slow moves might continue also during the week ahead. As per current charts, there is a probability for the level of the $90K in the coming week or two. At this moment it is unclear whether the market will have the strength to pass this level. One warning signal coming from charts is that if the $90K is not branched toward the upside, then there would be a potential for a stronger move toward the downside. Still, these moves are for the longer time frame in the future. For the week ahead, it should be considered that the FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19th, when certainly some volatility can be expected also on the crypto market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
1
BTC Bitcoin Technical Rebound Despite Whale Short Position !If you haven`t sold this recent top on BTC: Now Bitcoin (BTC) has recently pulled back, but signs are emerging that a technical rebound could be imminent. A large crypto investor, or whale, has reportedly opened a 40x leveraged short position for over 4,442 BTC (valued at over $368 million), effectively betting on a near-term price drop. However, this appears to be more of a short-term, low-volume trade rather than a sustained bearish position. Given the high leverage involved, the whale will likely seek to close the position soon with a modest profit rather than holding it as a long-term directional bet. Weekend trading volumes tend to be lower, which could contribute to short-term price weakness — but once the position is closed, buying pressure could return, fueling a recovery. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently near key support levels, with momentum indicators like the RSI signaling oversold conditions. Historically, similar setups have led to sharp rebounds as short covering and renewed bullish sentiment drive prices higher. My price target for Bitcoin is $97,500 by the end of the year, which would represent a recovery of approximately 15-20% from current levels. If the whale closes the short position and broader market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin could quickly regain upward momentum toward this target.
Long
by TopgOptions
2
Dead Cat Bounce BTCUSDT🚨 High-Risk Analysis 🚨 This setup isn’t for the faint-hearted. It’s like trying to catch falling knives while blindfolded. But for those who thrive on risk—here’s the analysis. 📉 We've reached the second bottom. (No one truly knows how deep the rabbit hole can go…) Despite the uncertainty, we take control of our trade, set a strict stop-loss, and see if our cat still has one more jump left. 🔥 Factors in Favor of a Bounce: ✅ Deviation from the sloping trendline ✅ Formation of a second bottom ✅ Reversion to the mean price ✅ Approach to a major level, allowing for a tight stop-loss and an optimal risk-reward setup ✅ Candle wicks signaling potential price movement ⚠️ Bearish Risks: Strong trend pressure could push lower Lack of volume may fail to drive momentum Final Thoughts: This remains a high-risk trade, but with a strong profit potential, as long as stop-loss discipline is maintained. 🎯 Good luck to those taking the risk. Victory will be ours! 🚀🔥
Long
by chernyshev.ilia
1
Bitcoin's left translated cycle - new lowsLet’s analyze both Cycle Market theories separately: 60-Day Cycle Status Bitcoin printed a new cycle low on February 28. While many expected a rebound, it carved another low a week later, leading into a left-translated cycle (price trends downward for over half the cycle). We’re now on day 16, hovering just above the $78,000 low. Further downside is likely in coming weeks. Multi-Timeframe Cycle Breakdown 2-Week Cycle: Will dip below 20 by Monday’s close, marking the start of accumulation (long-term oversold conditions). 1-Week Cycle: Broken below 20 and stuck there for two months – a reversal is imminent, signaling mid-term upside. 3-Day Cycle: Also below 20, confirming short-term bullish momentum. 1-Day Cycle: Topping above 80, hinting at a brief pullback soon. Consensus : Both theories suggest a rally toward the 60-Day Cycle high (days 20-30), aligning with the 3-Day Cycle peak. However, we may see one final dip when the 3-Day Cycle resets to 20 before the bull run resumes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheStrategyMaster
1
BTC | USD - The Crypto Rodeo with PipGuardBTC | USD - The Crypto Rodeo with PipGuard Hello, fellow financial misfits! Already regretting not closing your trade when you were in profit? Don’t worry, you’re in excellent company. Before we dive in, let’s get one thing straight: if my analysis is saving you from ending up like FTX , then do yourself a favor— drop a boost, follow me, and leave a comment! 🚀 LET’S GO: - Analysis to compare with the previous one that gave us a sweet 6K move, from 82K to 76K. Well done, colleagues! No Ferraris this time either, but at least you won’t have to sell your cat to cover your margin call. 🐱💸 CURRENT SITUATION: THE MARKET CIRCUS Here we are, fresh update just for you, because I know that without my guidance, you’re staring at your charts like a confused goldfish. 🐟 Meanwhile, while Bitcoin figures out whether to go up, down, or just mess with us all, the real world keeps delivering its fair share of nonsense. Trump (a.k.a. the blond guy with a ramen wig) 🍜 is still keeping us entertained, while geopolitics is tangled up like a pair of earphones in your pocket. And now, get this: Russia is using Bitcoin to trade oil with China and India. 🔹 Mother Russia’s Trick: 1. China and India pay for oil in yuan or rupees. 2. Everything gets converted into Bitcoin and other cryptos. 3. Russia cashes in and smirks while sipping vodka. 🍷😏 Meanwhile, we’re stuck dealing with KYC, banks blocking our withdrawals, and regulations changing every five minutes, while Putin is out here trading like a Wall Street shark. And us? Just trying not to get wrecked by the market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - BITCOIN’S MAZE 📈 General trend: Still bullish, but with the emotional stability of a trader on 50x leverage in a pump & dump. 🎢 📌 Current price: 83K 📌 Key level: 84K, possible bearish rejection. 📌 Warning! It might push up to 87-86K to grab liquidity before pulling a textbook dump. 📌 Fun fact: If it closes above 87K on a higher timeframe, we could see a bullish reversal signal. Otherwise, grab your helmet, because we’re going down. 🪂 PRICE TARGETS 📉 Bearish targets: 1. 80.140K 2. 76.600K 3. 74.000K 4. 70.000K 5. 66.000K (if we hit this, light a candle for crypto) 🔥 📈 Bullish targets: 1. 86.700K 2. 89.000K 3. 92.000K 4. 95.000K 5. 102.000K (if we get there, big party and we all buy a Lambo… toy version) 🚗 If you enjoyed this analysis, support PipGuard , because financial information served with sarcasm and expertise is the only kind worth reading. Follow, boost, and comment, or I’ll send you a chart with invisible candles on a white background. 🎭 Until next time, may volatility be with you! PipGuard 🚀
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by PipGuard
6
Bitcoin: 80K For Higher Low Long This Week.Bitcoin has retraced off the of the 76K to 78K AREA and established a double bottom formation (see arrows). I specifically mentioned this in my previous article and talked about it further during my most recent stream. While a bear flag formation IS now present, which implies weakness on the horizon, I anticipate a higher low support around the 80K area this week (see illustration). If it breaks, then 76K should be watched for another double bottom or failed low formation which offers attractive price points for swing trade long opportunities. This is a wild environment because we have tons of unexpected news constantly affecting the market while at the same time the highest seasonal volume (compared to August). This means moves will be BIG on both sides of the market, people will OVER react AND opinions will be more costly than usual. The first step to navigating such an environment effectively as a swing trader is to FOCUS on LEVELS and NOT news. No matter what the news is, either a level is going to be respected or its not. By focusing on what the herd is not, you can gain an advantage on the market, even if its brief. Along with that, if you understand how to use dollar cost averaging effectively in this environment, you can start a position slightly earlier while waiting for confirmation before you add. An example of this is while watching for test of 80K, you buy a small position which you can take pain on, which means a much wider than usual stop. IF confirmation appears, you add. While it is possible that after the add the market goes against you, the PROBABILITY of the location and formation FAVORS a positive outcome more. In cases like this it is worth the risk. If 80K breaks without any confirmation, you are still small and you lose less than you normally would because of the adjusted size. When market sentiment reaches extremes, THIS is when you want to pay CLOSE attention, especially during BEARISH extremes. In order for a market to reach attractive prices, mews typically needs to be negative. During such times, traders tend to avoid the market because the market looks "bad" yet, these same traders buy aggressively at the WORST prices, typically the highs when everything looks "great". One of my long time followers during my stream mentioned he was interested in buying, but only taking small bites because things looked so bearish. My response was that I usually suggest small bites at highs, and right now we are no where near the highs, so slightly greater risk can be justified at these prices for swing trades and investing. Assuming risk requires confidence. What gives me such confidence is being able to gauge potential risk through analyzing price structure and levels. Wave counts are very helpful in this regard and help me shape reasonable expectations. In this context, Bitcoin at 76K MAY be the Wave 4 bottom. As long as 65K is not touched, a Wave 4 bottom can otherwise be established somewhere between 76K and 66K if 76K breaks. This will go against ALL of the bearish sentiment required to push prices to such levels. Navigating this effectively means you will have to put your contrarian hat on. Pay attention to the levels and confirmations, not what people are saying. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
Solana ($SOLUSD) - Monthly Demand InboundQuick TA for Solana $SOL. Many cryptos are at inflection points and will likely break higher or roll over from current prices (I think a move down is more likely, per long-term charts, and am hoping this happens for the sake of buying opportunities). Solana, like many other cryptos, has failed to develop meaningful 1D bullish momentum (RSI holding below 50). Should COINBASE:SOLUSD get another leg down, I'll be watching its behavior as it enters lower demand zones. 101.75-78.87 = monthly demand; 74.85-51.37 = weekly demand, but there are also buy areas higher. If Solana trades lower and approaches the aforementioned levels, use LTFs for signs of exhaustion/downtrend reversal. Personally, I wouldn't use "set-and-forget" buy limit orders; higher-beta cryptos may keep selling off until majors bottom/reverse and/or prices might not trade low enough to hit your limit price. I prefer more of a "hands-on" approach to trading, but to each their own. On the road, so truncated analysis. Will update when I can. Thank you for your interest and let me know what you think! Jon @JHartCharts
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by JHartCharts
BTC/USD Analysis & Trade Idea - Zooming Out Market Structure & Key Levels Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has recently faced a significant correction after reaching local highs, now testing a key demand zone. The structure indicates a potential reversal or further downside if support fails. - Support Zones: - $73,805 – Currently acting as support; a breakdown could trigger more downside. - $68,997 – A strong demand area that previously led to a bullish breakout. - $61,206 – A deeper retracement level and a key zone for long-term buyers. - Resistance Levels: - $84,304 – A critical resistance where price may face rejection. - $93,401 – A major supply zone; breaking above would confirm bullish momentum. Price Action & Potential Scenario - BTC is testing $73,800 , a key inflection point. A strong bounce could push price toward $84,300 , while a breakdown may lead to $69,000 or lower. - Price recently rejected from local highs, suggesting increased selling pressure . - A confirmed reclaim of $84,300+ would be a bullish confirmation for another leg up. Trade Outlook 📈 Bullish Scenario : If BTC holds above $73,800 and breaks $84,300 , a rally toward $93,400 could follow. 📉 Bearish Scenario : A breakdown below $73,800 could lead to a retest of $69,000 and possibly $61,200 in a deeper correction. Conclusion Bitcoin remains at a key decision point. Holding support could fuel a reversal, while failure to maintain $73,800 may trigger further downside. Watch for price action confirmation before taking positions. --- Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and reflects my personal views. It is not financial advice. I am not responsible for any trading or investment decisions you make. Always do your own research and consult a professional before investing.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Gyomeix
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Bearish Flag Breakdown – Potential Drop AheadKey Observations: Bearish Flag Formation: The chart mentions a "Bearish Flag," which is a continuation pattern suggesting a potential downward movement. The price initially moved up (flagpole) but started consolidating before breaking downward. Break of Trendline Support: A clear upward trendline is visible, which has been broken to the downside, indicating a shift in momentum. The breakdown happened after a series of lower highs, confirming selling pressure. Short Trade Setup: A short trade (sell position) is illustrated with a red stop-loss area above the entry and a green take-profit area below. The risk-to-reward ratio seems favorable, with a target around 82,390 USDT. Price Action & Direction: The red arrow emphasizes further downward movement toward the support levels. The next major support zone is around 82,800 - 82,390 USDT. Conclusion: The chart suggests a bearish outlook for Bitcoin in the short term. The break of the trendline and bearish flag formation indicate further downside potential. If Bitcoin fails to hold the immediate support level, it could move toward 82,390 USDT or lower.
Short
by KingProTrader