1-BTCUSD
BTCUSD Swing trade ideaThough I am not very active in posting on the platform, I decided to once again share my ideas on BTC. While I personally would love to see a retest of the prior ATH break, I don't believe it is on the table for the time being. The following is a simple swing trade setup using some already very publicly known retail concepts such as SMC.
Is a deeper Bitcoin correction coming?The price has already lost several important lows, lost its long-term ascending trend line and has taken a corrective guard. #Bitcoin may need some rest or correction.
Most likely view: Until Bitcoin consolidates above $96,000, we cannot be optimistic about the rise. For now, I have taken profit on all trades and am ready for the US market to open today to see if we will continue the decline or if the market will make another upward turn with strong and high-volume candles.
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin continue to rise?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the downtrend channel to fail.
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. This path will continue until the bottom of the channel and the specified support range.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important.
According to a report by Fox Business, informed sources have indicated that the new U.S administration might grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) authority to oversee certain digital assets. The CFTC’s expanded role could include regulating cryptocurrency exchanges and cash markets tied to digital assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which are categorized as commodities. These changes could diminish the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) influence in this sector.
Gary Gensler, the current SEC chairman and a staunch crypto critic, has supported granting CFTC more authority over Bitcoin, deeming it a commercial commodity. In March, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against the crypto exchange KuCoin, also classifying Ethereum as a commodity.
As of November 2024, MicroStrategy owns over 380,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $31.6 billion, accounting for nearly 2% of the total global supply. This Virginia-based software intelligence company first began purchasing Bitcoin in 2020 and has since expanded its holdings to 15 times those of its closest corporate competitor, Marathon Digital.
Tesla, which invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin in February 2024, ranks fourth among public companies in Bitcoin ownership. Around the same time, Tesla also started accepting Bitcoin as payment for its vehicles.
El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has proposed leasing the country’s 170 volcanoes to Bitcoin miners, granting them access to the geothermal energy.
Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, has forecasted that Bitcoin’s price could reach $740,000 by April 2028 based on historical trends. Morehead tied this projection to the election of Donald Trump as a pro-crypto U.S. president and a Congress supportive of digital assets.
He also highlighted that only 5% of the global financial wealth is invested in blockchain-related assets, suggesting significant growth potential for Bitcoin. In his letter, he wrote, “Even after 11 years, Bitcoin is still like a seed sprouting in the soil.” He added that the regulatory challenges faced by blockchain over the past 15 years have now transformed into golden opportunities.
This optimistic outlook aligns with Pantera Capital’s Bitcoin fund, which has delivered strong performance. Launched in 2013, the fund has achieved a 131,000% return over 11 years, excluding fees, primarily due to Bitcoin’s 1,000-fold price increase since the fund purchased it at $74 per BTC.
Morehead emphasized that “it’s not too late to buy Bitcoin.” He added, “Some investors may think that Bitcoin’s doubling this year means they missed the opportunity, but this is a flawed mindset.”
Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) sparked a debate about meme coins in the crypto space. In a tweet, he criticized meme coins, stating, “I’m not against memes, but meme coins have gotten a bit bizarre. Let’s build real applications using blockchain.”
Meanwhile, Hong Kong has proposed tax exemptions for cryptocurrency activities, aiming to compete with Singapore as a leading financial hub and attract major investors and asset managers. According to the Financial Times, the exemptions cover profits from digital assets, private credits, overseas properties, and carbon credits.
Patrick Yip from Deloitte China noted that this initiative could bolster Hong Kong’s financial industry as family offices in the city allocate up to 20% of their portfolios to digital assets.
During the trading week of November 25–29, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $138 million in capital outflows after seven consecutive weeks of inflows.
Performance of the top-traded ETFs on Friday:
• Total: $320 million
• BlackRock: $137 million
• Fidelity:
BITCOIN UPDATE: MUST READ!!!I may get a lot of criticism for this, but before you write a hate comment, please read the update carefully.
November has been a great month for BTC, with a solid 48% gain, pushing it to a new all-time high. This growth has also benefited altcoins.
Currently, BTC is facing rejection, and if it undergoes a correction, we are likely to see levels around FWB:73K –$74k by February 2025. The RSI is already in the overbought zone and is displaying a bearish divergence pattern.
The only way BTC can avoid this rejection is by breaking above its new all-time high. I plan to follow this pattern unless BTC successfully breaks above its all-time high.
That’s all for now. I hope this helps you make better decisions.
As always, conduct your own research and analysis before investing.
Thank you!
Bitcoin: the $100K is still the targetAlthough it seems that the BTC slowed down its path toward the upside, still, charts seem more like a short pause before the next final milestone is reached for this year. Previous week was a little bit bumpy for BTC, as the coin modestly reverted toward the downside, reaching the lowest weekly level at $91.115. The support line at $90K has not been clearly tested. This level was also a point where dip-buying orders strongly emerged, bringing the coin back toward the level of $98,6K. Such moves show that there is still potential for BTC and its higher grounds, while short term reversals need to occur eventually.
The RSI continues to move within the highly overbought territory, and will most probably continue its path for some time, until the market exhausts completely the potential for the higher grounds. The moving average of 50 days still strongly diverges from MA200 counterpart, without any indication of a potential slowdown in the coming days.
At this point on charts, BTC is on a sort of a short cross-road. On one side there is a potential for another short reversal toward the downside, but it could be only a short one. On the opposite side, there is also a potential that the old ATH could be tested in the coming days, at the level of $99K. Whether this will be a final breakthrough toward the actual $100K level is unclear at this moment, but the crypto futures market is quite positive about such a move.
BTC LONG TP:100k 1 HR 30-11-2024Bitcoin is aiming for 100k on a 1-hour timeframe, with a focus on establishing a long position in the 96,500 to 95,000 range. It's recommended to set a stop loss at 94,000. Please note that the entry points and stop loss are merely suggestions, so feel free to adapt them to your own trading strategy. This analysis will be invalidated if the expected movement doesn't occur within the next 30 hours. Stay sharp and trade wisely! #Bitcoin #Trading
$BTC: $101K Pump Possible? Or Correction to $93K?Good morning, crypto bro's! 🌅
📊 Fear & Greed Index: 80 (Extreme Greed).
📈 Stoch RSI: Still oversold (25).
💡 Analysis:
Current Action: Bitcoin hasn't corrected to $93K yet.
Short-term Possibility: Small chance for an instant pump to $101K.
Larger Probability: Correction to $93K– GETTEX:92K remains the primary outlook.
📌 As always, stay safe, don’t let FOMO take over, and keep managing your risks.
I'm Akki, one chart at a time. Have a great day and stay SAFU!
Bitcoin's historical 868 day low to high cycleIt appears that every bull market lasts 868 days.
August 2015 to Dec 2017 - Bitcoin did a 78x growing from $194 to $19.1k
Dec 2018 to November 2021 - Bitcoin did a 20x growing from $3.1k to $69k
November 2022 to present - Bitcoin has grown from $15k to $99k with more expected.
Following this 868 day pattern the bull market is expected to end in late March 2025 roughly 110 days away.
The question is, does BlackRock change things? Does America's promise to buy 250,000 BTC a year for 5 years change things? The big money is coming.
BTC Secondary Trend. Gann trend fan 2024-2026. TriangleLogarithm. Time frame is 3 days.
Nothing new, everything is the same as previously shown in 2022 (the main trend), targets, logic and so on.
Major trend .
BTC/USD Secondary Trend Cycles and Halvin g 1 07 2022
In the present ideas, at the moment now clearly showed this triangle in the range of dynamic support/resistance of the Gann fan (that is, the development of the uptrend phase participation to distribution).
Vertical lines. The site does not display vertical dates if for a long period, Before publication the dates (time zones) are displayed on the chart, after publication they are not. These are the times of trend reversal zones.
Local trend and this reversal zone.
BTC/USD Triangle. Medium term and local work 07 06 2024
Bitcoin: Just Getting Started Again?Bitcoin has retraced to the 90K support (anticipated in my previous article) and is now attempting to retest the 100K high for the second time. Markets are mostly RANDOM, which means there are countless scenarios than can unfold from here. In this article I will focus on just TWO possibilities that I am anticipating for the coming week. The market chooses the outcome and it is our job to use available information to identify the market's intent. For me, that means using price action confirmation to improve probability and quantify my risk for whatever type of trade I am interested in pursuing. The amount of risk you are willing to accept is your responsibility from here.
The first scenario is the Captain Obvious one. Price breaks the high of the yesterday's inside bar and tests the 100K level over the coming week. While this may seem great, IF there is no major catalyst behind this, the chances of a FAILED HIGH are significant. The previous retrace serves as a sign that momentum is slowing in general. IF a failed high (double top) appears and confirms, the next retrace can be substantial to the tune of mid 80Ks. This is not a forecast, it is a potential RISK you must accept from current levels. The other thing to consider is even if 100K is cleared, what potential does it have relative to this risk? With that in mind, if I were to do anything with this scenario it would only be on small time frames, because that is the best way to avoid the large magnitude risk while participating in whatever is left of this move.
The second scenario is the retrace to the high 80's low 90K area for a failed low. This is more in line with the potential consolidation that appears to be developing (sub Wave 4 of 5?). IF Bitcoin offers this opportunity, along with the confirmation, it has a greater potential than the first scenario (inside bar). The arrows on the chart along with the lines illustrate the failed low scenario. This can be pursued on day trade as well as swing trade time frames. The confirmation at the second low is the key to entering this while keeping risk within reason.
A few things to keep in mind about this environment: the catalyst behind this momentum is the U.S. election. Market cap is at all time highs for this sector. Most of the large cap alt coins have reached major resistance levels on weekly and monthly time frames, but nowhere near all time highs. The "experts" are once again all coming out claiming "this is just the beginning". A market testing major resistance levels AFTER sharp break outs is usually NOT "the beginning". In my opinion times like this are ideal for reducing risk or taking profits. I will always suggest this at cycle highs (just like in 2021).
"Great" investing opportunities require long periods of WAITING and watching a market go lower and be completely off the mainstream radar. In this space, cycle lows can take a YEAR or TWO to play out. Alt coins are NOT long term assets, they are just a gamble. When asset bubble money flows, it often makes its way to complete nonsense which can be NFTs. Keep an eye in that area for the risk appetite overflow.
This is NOT a game of getting "rich" as every single video on Youtube is claiming. It is a game of how much RISK you are willing to take. If you have no problem with a healthy retrace giving back 20%+, then by all means do what you have to do. IF you can't handle losing the money, then you are in the wrong game. There are infinitely more people in position to get rich from this entire space BEFORE you. Markets CYCLE from low to high, etc. Just KNOW the RISK associated with the part of the cycle we are in. Hint: When 5 waves can be counted, it usually means there is a greater chance of a coming corrective move. Just ask all the geniuses who bought the highs back in 21.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
This volatility period is expected to last until December 4th
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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
If it rises further, it is expected to rise to around 2 (106178.85).
If it falls, you should check if it is supported around 1.618 (89050.0).
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(1W chart)
The slope of the StochRSI EMA seems to be almost horizontal.
It seems that the initialization of the StochRSI indicator is not far away.
When the StochRSI indicator falls from the overbought zone, the point to watch is where it is supported.
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(1D chart)
The key is whether it can be supported near the HA-High indicator point of 96372.40 and rise above the BW(100) indicator point of 98892.0.
If it fails to rise,
1st: M-Signal on the 1D chart
2nd: 87.8K-89K
3rd: 79.9K-80.9K
You need to check where it is supported among the 1st and 3rd areas above.
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This volatility period is expected to continue until December 4th, so be careful when trading.
If BTC continues to move sideways during this volatility period, altcoins are likely to show an upward trend.
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Have a nice time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the uptrend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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BTC loosing momentum DEC1 2024 read notes The goal here is not to hit $100,000 . Don't get diverted from the goal. My goal is to book profit right at the target of $100,000 & exit. It can do $101,000 & you will be very happy as your accounts will be green but trust me highest probability is that it will touch $100,000 and get down as it is loosing momentum for sure.
Keep your Stops tight.
Wedge Pattern on Bitcoin's Chart - Investors Take RisksHello,
The optimistic break out of a possible bullish wedge pattern suggests potential price action of reclaiming the $97.3k price level.
The white trendlines mark the borders of a falling wedge pattern, which is usually a bullish pattern. The upward break out from the pattern further indicates a bullish scenario. The bullish chart pattern aligns with technicals like MACD, signaling a weakening bearish momentum. Per the wedge patterns' dimensions, if the price returns to the wedge and hits stop loss levels like $96.5k, the bullish scenario can be considered invalid. Otherwise, a minor pullback is possible to the upper white trendline until BTC picks up bullish momentum and volume. The volume profile shows relatively minimal interest at the current levels. So, I expect BTC to move out from these levels soon. Achieving the target of $97.3k would not only fulfill the bullish potential according to the dimensions of the wedge pattern but also bring the price to levels where investors are interested in trading.
Sentiment:
As of November 2024, the market sentiment for Bitcoin is extremely bullish. This is reflected in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which currently sits at 88, indicating extreme greed. This high level of optimism suggests that investors are highly confident in Bitcoin's future and are willing to take on more risk in anticipation of further price increases.
Global economics:
The ongoing strategic competition between the US and China continues to shape the global economic and political landscape, impacting trade, technology, and security. Competitors may recognize the potential to exploit Bitcoin, which will help the price to reach higher levels.
Risk management:
I encourage you to configure your stop loss and diversify your investments to reduce risk.
Regards,
Ely