What goes up Must come downHey guys and girls,
almost 5 weeks ago, I suggested
Oct 23, 2024 (Target = 100k)
Oct 27, 2024 (Target = 100k)
(As you well know) in November, there was some good news:
"Donald Trump won the 2024 election"
What happened next?
Bitcoin soared nearly 49% (after Trump was declared the winner of the election)
(my scenario ---> I sold)
What goes up must come down
When's the correction?
In my opinion, Bitcoin is ending its rally and expectations are shifting to a slowdown and the pressure is more on the devaluation side,
What to expect next? (medium term overview- Wave A)
To the best of my understanding, I think this chart is not representative of what the real market is.
why?
Wave 3 = $ 48,500 ( = 3.12 x length of Wave 1)
Wave 5 = $ 50,500 ( = 3.25 x length of Wave 1, means there is pressure everywhere, and I mean everywhere)
Yes, this chart tells me there is something brewing (there is something there that was not there before)
Further targets:
$ 90k, $ 87k, and $ 83k
1-BTCUSD
OVER BTC PLANBitcoin's trajectory seems to be holding steady, defying expectations of a significant drop. Rather than falling drastically, it appears poised to consolidate within a stable range, likely centered around the $90K mark. Although a push beyond the $100K threshold may not be imminent, its current position reflects resilience, indicating that BTC might remain within this middle ground as the market seeks its next major catalyst..
An update on the monthly log channel chart from AprilI posted this chart idea originally all the way back in april when I discovered that all the major tapas and bottoms of the market since the 2017 top until now are all in a very clear set of rising channels seen best on the 1 month log chart as shown here. We can see since that time in April, Bitcoin has now broken back upward and is very close to retesting this super strong trendline just above it currently around 47-48k. This trendline is likely to be significant resistance, however there is a chance during a moment of extreme fomo where we could break above this trendline and retest the lighter green ascending trendline with a wick which is currently sitting around 56-58k on the current monthly candle. Ultimately my guess is the trendline just above current price action at the 48k zone is likely to maintain candle body resistance and lead to the next big market correction. It may even maintain wick resistance too but I still believe we can possibly wick above it and retest the trendline just above it with a wick before ultimately closing whichever candle gets above it’s candle body below the 48k trendline. Once this happens, the first zone I’m going to be watching to hold support is at the 1month 50ma shown here in orange. There’s a decent chance we could correct even lower than that but that will be the first zone I watch for a potential reversal back into the uptrend. For now though I think it’s completely possible to go as high as the 56-58k zone with a wick while still maintaining the trendline just above this current area as resistance but I wont be surprised if that trendline at 48k is so powerful we cant even get a wick above it either. Both seem quite probable to me at this point. I am going to attach a link to my original channel idea on this update as well so you can see where this channel discovery originated from. *not financial advice*
Will Bitcoin's price reach 245K?The time frame of this analysis is 2W. the chart you see is a complete data chart for Bitcoin. We have a valid price channel for Bitcoin, where the channel's midline and the resistance drawn from previous highs (red line) point to the 245K - 250K range. As you know, we had previously set a target of 169K for Bitcoin in the medium to long term, starting from much lower prices.
Experience has shown that, in logarithmic charts, price channels are valid for medium- to long-term trends.
Additionally, a significant resistance level (green line) in the 77K to 78K range has been broken, suggesting that the current price floor is within this range. If a drop occurs, a retest of this broken resistance is likely. Furthermore, there is a CME gap around 77K, and if this gap is filled, the bullish sentiment in the market will likely be reactivated.
Given Trump's four years of presidency and his support for crypto, this emerging market has the potential to reach substantial market caps.
Profit-making, even in a highly bullish market, still requires patience, diligence, and risk management.
When will BTC top? - Four-year cycle theory predictionIn January of 2022, I predicted that Bitcoin would bottom in November of that year. I made that prediction on the basis of similarities across two prior 4-year cycles, and my call turned out exactly right.
Early this year (2024), I came to the conclusion that the 4-year cycle theory was invalidated when Bitcoin reached ATHs (above 69k) much earlier than in previous cycles. In fact, it made new highs even before the halving, which has never happened before. However, a few weeks ago I decided to revisit the 4-year cycle theory and see whether it might somehow still be salvageable. I argue that it can be salvaged, but only if we overlook the price action from Q1 of this year. If we treat the price action from Q1 of 2024 as an aberration - perhaps because ETF inflows were hotter than anyone expected - then the four year cycle can still be considered valid, and put to work to make some predictions.
With that caveat, in other words, if we overlook evidence that invalidates the hypothesis (stupid, I know) then I can say that Bitcoin should top sometime between Sept 20 and Oct 20 of 2025 ...that is, if this cycle matches older cycles.
I make my prediction on the basis of the following four criteria across three prior cycles.
1. It has taken Bitcoin between 364 - 415 days to reach the bottom from ATHs. In other words, it takes Bitcoin around a year to reach bottom.
2. It has taken Bitcoin between 1070 - 1135 days to make new highs after a previous cycle's ATHs. If you bought the absolute top of a cycle, you've had to wait around 1100 days before you saw new highs.
3. After Bitcoin makes new highs, it tends to run for between 329 - 343 days before reaching that cycle's top. In other words, after making new highs, Bitcoin stays in a bull market for close to a year.
4. Finally, and most interesting, it has taken Bitcoin EXACTLY 1064 days to reach ATHs from a previous cycle's all-time-lows on two separate cycles . That is a remarkable coincidence.
So, if we overlook the price action of Q1 2024 and decide that Bitcoin made new cycle highs (above 69k) for the first time in October of 2024, then we can drink from the hopium cup which says Bitcoin should keep running for around a year until Sept-Oct of 2025. If, by some strange coincidence Bitcoin tops out exactly 1064 days from last cycle's lows (criteria 4 above), the top should come in on October 20th, 2025.
So, once again:
Sept 20 - Oct 20
This is obviously not scientific, and even more obviously NOT financial advice.
Here's the link to my 2022 bottom prediction:
BTC Daily Chart - Cup and Handle formation - Target $89k Dec 6thI'm not convinced this is a great Cup and Handle formation, but it is there and it is also on ETH.
However, if you compare it to the other charts, the numbers seem to be within the same reasonable ballpark and timeframe, so it's possible that multiple patterns will more strongly confirm the target.
I also don't remember how to calculate the estimated date for a C&H target to complete, so I just used 60 days as an estimate.
Lets see how this one does after the test of time.
Bitcoin Long C&H - Target $120k by 2024Large Cup and Handle Formation building over the last 12-18 months.
Target of $120k by completion in January 2024 or earlier.
After Cup formation is complete, expect some pullback before the rally.
The Green dotted line is a multi-year support line dating back to 2015.
280-300% increase from today if this plays out, but likely not until the Nov-Jan timeframe.
BTC-USD The rumors of my demise have been exaggerated.I'm back!
Long-term - BTC-USD TA
Elliot Wave for illustration purposes only, I have no idea how EW works. :-P
I'm up late, happen to have been watching and decided I needed to come to the computer to chart this out. It appears we're driving to break $30k and may do it soon. I've been waiting for a $29,500 target for about a week now with a pending sell order in to take some profit. Not sure it will hit, but after doing some analysis, it might.
Thinking about all the bank issues and the news lands on Fridays the last few weeks. Nothing solid, but thinking that mid-week may be the new norm for upward trends, then a tapering off over the weekends.
Lets see what happens.
Target $270k by Valentines day 2025, based on the prior rally where we broke through the Ichimoku cloud in 2019. Breaking through the Ichimoku resistance requires entering in the side of the cloud, so we come rushing out of the top, then ride the support for some time, before we continue the long-term bull trend to the new All Time High of $270k, which could happen just before Christmas 2025.
AI advancements should be noted here, they may lead to major shifts in the marketplace worldwide in the next 18 months or so.
Is Bitcoin's Liquidity Index a Reliable Indicator for PredictingBitcoin (BTC) has been making significant strides in recent times, and a new analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency could reach a local top of $102,000 by January 2025. This prediction is based on the behavior of Bitcoin's liquidity index, a metric that measures the ease with which Bitcoin can be bought or sold.
The Significance of Bitcoin's Liquidity Index
The liquidity index is a crucial indicator of market sentiment and potential price movements. A higher liquidity index suggests increased investor interest and a stronger demand for Bitcoin. Conversely, a lower liquidity index may signal waning interest and potential price declines.
Historical Correlation Between Liquidity Index and Bitcoin Price
Historical data reveals a strong correlation between Bitcoin's liquidity index and its price. In the past, periods of high liquidity have often preceded significant price rallies, while periods of low liquidity have coincided with price corrections.
The 2025 Prediction
Based on the current trend of the liquidity index, analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach a local top of $102,000 by January 2025. This projection is supported by the historical correlation between the index and Bitcoin's price.
However, it's important to note that this prediction is based on the assumption that the historical correlation between the liquidity index and Bitcoin's price will continue to hold. While this assumption is reasonable, it's not guaranteed. Several factors could influence Bitcoin's price trajectory, including macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and geopolitical events.
Potential Correction After the Peak
Following the projected $102,000 peak, Bitcoin may undergo a correction to around $70,000. This potential correction could be driven by profit-taking, overbought conditions, or a shift in market sentiment.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price
Several factors could impact Bitcoin's price in the coming months and years:
1. Macroeconomic Conditions: Global economic conditions, such as inflation rates, interest rates, and GDP growth, can significantly influence Bitcoin's price.
2. Regulatory Environment: Regulatory clarity and favorable policies can boost investor confidence and drive Bitcoin's adoption.
3. Institutional Adoption: Increased adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors, such as hedge funds and pension funds, can provide significant price support.
4. Network Upgrades: Technological advancements and network upgrades can enhance Bitcoin's scalability and efficiency, attracting more users and investors.
5. Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment, including fear, greed, and speculation, can play a significant role in short-term price fluctuations.
Conclusion
While the liquidity index suggests a potential $102,000 peak for Bitcoin by January 2025, it's essential to approach this prediction with caution. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and unforeseen events can significantly impact Bitcoin's price.
Investors should conduct thorough research and consider consulting with financial advisors before making any investment decisions. It's also crucial to diversify one's investment portfolio and manage risk effectively.
As Bitcoin continues to evolve and mature, its long-term potential remains significant. However, investors should be prepared for both upside and downside volatility in the short term.
USDJPY - A Whole Lotta Pips in 2024!USDJPY has been one of our favourites to trade! We've managed to catch the start of the swing points for each wave since the beginning of 2024.
Our entry method remains the same. Break of Trendline. Simple yet very effective if used correctly.
Since our last setup, we've moved +600pips in our direction. We're currently holding it at breakeven and riding out the wave!
See below for our past setups.
Trade 1:
Trade 2:
Trade 3:
Trade 3 (Public Post):
Trade 4 (Public Post):
Trades 3 and 4 have been public setups. Well done to those that were paying attention and caught it!
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
USDJPY - A Whole Lotta Pips in 2024!USDJPY has been one of our favourites to trade! We've managed to catch the start of the swing points for each wave since the beginning of 2024.
Our entry method remains the same. Break of Trendline. Simple yet very effective if used correctly.
Since our last setup, we've moved +600pips in our direction. We're currently holding it at breakeven and riding out the wave!
See below for our past setups.
Trade 1:
Trade 2:
Trade 3:
Trade 3 (Public Post):
Trade 4 (Public Post):
Trades 3 and 4 have been public setups. Well done to those that were paying attention and caught it!
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
#BTC/USDT#BTC
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame upwards and is expected to continue
We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100 again
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that supports the rise by breaking it upwards
We have a support area at the lower limit of the channel at a price of
96000
Entry price 96500
First target 97270
Second target 98691
Third target 100000