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1-BTCUSD

$84K BTC Battle, ETF Resilience, and Macroeconomic ShadowsBitcoin's journey remains a captivating saga of volatility, resilience, and the interplay of technical indicators and macroeconomic forces. Recently, the cryptocurrency surged past $84,000, reigniting bullish sentiment, but faces a critical test at a key resistance level.1 This surge, fueled by a broader rebound in risk assets, pushed BTC above its 200-day moving average, a pivotal benchmark for assessing long-term trends. However, this bullish momentum is juxtaposed with significant selling pressure, ETF outflows, and lingering concerns about regulatory and macroeconomic landscapes. The 200-Day Moving Average: A Battleground for Bulls The 200-day moving average is a widely recognized technical indicator that provides insight into the long-term trend of an asset. For Bitcoin, consistently closing above this level signifies a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum. The recent breach is a positive sign for bulls, indicating renewed confidence and potentially attracting further investment. However, a sustained close above this level is crucial to solidify the bullish outlook. The importance of this level is highlighted by the narrative that a weekly close above this average would confirm a market bottom. This emphasizes the significance of longer timeframes in validating trends in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. $86K or $65+K: A Price at a Crossroads Bitcoin's price currently finds itself at a critical juncture. The immediate challenge is breaching the $86,000 resistance level. A successful breakout could pave the way for further gains, potentially pushing Bitcoin towards new all-time highs. Conversely, failure to overcome this resistance could lead to a pullback towards the $65,000 support level. This range represents a crucial battleground for bulls and bears, with the outcome likely to determine the short-term trajectory of Bitcoin's price. MVRV Ratio: A Potential Reversal Indicator The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is another key metric that investors closely monitor. It compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization, providing insights into potential overbought or oversold conditions. A high MVRV ratio suggests that Bitcoin is overvalued and prone to a correction, while a low ratio indicates undervaluation and potential for a rebound. The MVRV ratio nearing a key level suggests that a major reversal could be imminent, adding another layer of complexity to Bitcoin's current price action. ETF Resilience Amidst Volatility Despite a 25% price drop, Bitcoin ETF investors have maintained a relatively strong stance. This resilience is reflected in the collective $115 billion in assets under management by US Bitcoin ETFs. This demonstrates the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin and the increasing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class. However, since mid-February, Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed total outflows of nearly $5 billion. This outflow points to a potential shift in investor sentiment, possibly driven by concerns about market volatility or macroeconomic uncertainties. The strength of the ETF market is a double edged sword. While significant holdings demonstrate institutional buy in, large outflows can increase sell pressure on the underlying asset. Selling Pressure and Macroeconomic Shadows Bitcoin's recent decline is attributed to intensified selling pressure, reflecting a broader trend of risk aversion in the market. This selling pressure is exacerbated by concerns about the potential impact of digital currencies on traditional banking systems. Banks are increasingly weighing the implications of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, leading to regulatory scrutiny and potential policy changes. Furthermore, macroeconomic factors continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Concerns about inflation, interest rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions are contributing to market volatility and impacting the demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Presidential Policy and Market Sentiment A presidential policy aimed at creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve initially sparked optimism among investors. However, this initial enthusiasm waned, highlighting the complex interplay between policy announcements and market reactions. While such policies can signal government acceptance of cryptocurrencies, they may not always translate into immediate price appreciation. The market's reaction suggests that investors are more focused on broader macroeconomic trends and regulatory clarity. The lack of sustained positive impact from the policy announcement underscores the importance of addressing fundamental concerns about Bitcoin's long-term viability and regulatory framework. Navigating the Volatility Bitcoin's current situation highlights the inherent volatility and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market. Investors must remain vigilant and adapt to rapidly changing market conditions. The interplay of technical indicators, ETF flows, and macroeconomic factors creates a complex landscape that requires careful analysis and strategic decision-making. In conclusion, Bitcoin's battle at $84K, coupled with the resilience of ETF investors and the shadow of macroeconomic uncertainties, paints a picture of a market at a critical juncture. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can sustain its bullish momentum or succumb to renewed selling pressure. Understanding the interplay of these factors is essential for navigating the volatile world of cryptocurrency investing.
by bryandowningqln
BTC to likely kiss the $74K - $69KBitcoin Market Analysis and Forecast Bitcoin has retraced over 50% from its all-time high (ATH). Despite a rebound from the Fibonacci 50% level to its current price of $84,600, continued selling pressure could push BTC lower toward the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement zone, which lies between $74,000 and $69,000. This potential pullback presents strategic entry points for long-term investors who have the patience to hold through market cycles. Given the current market conditions, I will continue to accumulate using a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy to mitigate volatility and optimize long-term gains. I will be monitoring the price action closely and providing further updates as the market develops.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ForexClinik
8
Bitcoin is ABSOLUTELY under Pressure - It MUST react before DECI have been looking at this in detail for some time and have decided to change how I calculate things and here is the result. There are 2 things of Massive importance to see here. First is that Curve that PA has been under since 2010 The Lower Dashed Line is the Trend line formed in 2011. It is Strong and it is Valid and PA is currently running along it. Here is a closer image to show you where we are in relation to it right now. Directly below PA currently, we hit that line around 67K The Apex of this "Triangle" is December THIS YEAR PA Has to break Above that Arc, the same Arc that has Rejected PA EVERY TIME since 2011 BUT THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT - IT HAS TO BE and here is why I am not going to explain the % increase each Cycle Low to ATH, it is in the chart but I do want to show you this, The first real push of Bitcoin was a massive % rise that created the ATH that formed the 1st point of the Lower Trend line of the New channel. This is A on the chart The Next push was to B. This push was 1.433% of the Original push A - smaller by a long way in % terms. These 2 moves created the channel that PA has remained in ever since. ( see dashed upper trend line) From this point on, we can see that each cycle push , while in channel, has been approx 20% of the previous rise. Or around 1/5 of the size in % terms Or to put is another way, Each Rise has been a diminishing % rise from previous. Look at that curve. It has pushed PA down each cycle ATH This cycle, we are currently at 26.7% of the previous push ( to 2021 ATH ) and it has created a cycle ATH currently. But is the cycle Over ? - Hopefully NOT Because if it is NOT over, we need to break through that Curve of resistance by December. The Much expected 200K ATH is way over that curve and would result in a 55% of previous push rise. That would break the "trend" This is VERY Different. But Absolutely required. So, the question that should be on Everyone's lips is "Which is stronger ? The line or the Arc ?" My expectation is that we will break through. That Arc has been a Major part of the formative years of Bitcoin PA but now, it could prove detrimental. Because, if we do not break through it, It will push Peice DOWN, through that line of Long term support. We do not want that SO, Maybe THIS is why the Bulls are waiting for the Weekly MACD to reset to Neutral...PA Needs the strength to break through. So, Go Buy your Local BULL a Beer ( or white wine lol ) and Lets get on. Watch this Close. It really is more important that Trumps Reserve, Saylors Love nest or Bezos after burners.................
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Btcusd support for pullback This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price analysis on a 1-day timeframe (from Coinbase) includes key technical indicators: 1. Double Top Formation – Marked at the resistance level, this pattern typically signals a potential price reversal. The price failed to break above this level twice before declining. 2. Resistance Level – A trendline acting as a strong resistance, previously rejecting price movements. The chart suggests that Bitcoin needs to break through this level for further bullish momentum. 3. Support Zones – Two green zones indicate key support levels where buying pressure has historically increased, preventing further declines. 4. Projected Price Action – The analysis suggests a short-term decline towards support, followed by a bullish rebound. The price is expected to test resistance again and potentially break out toward $104,283. 5. Volume Profile – The right side of the chart shows the volume traded at different price levels. Higher volume zones indicate strong areas of interest for buyers and sellers. Overall, this analysis suggests a temporary dip followed by a potential breakout to new highs, contingent on Bitcoin holding support and overcoming resistance.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Forex_ViP_Signalss
2
BTC Oversold bounce back resistance at 88,000Recent price action in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) suggests an oversold bounce, with resistance capping gains at the 88,000 level. The continuation of selling pressure could extend the downside move, with key support levels at 76,112, followed by 74,222 and 67,260. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 91,900, accompanied by a daily close higher, would invalidate the bearish outlook. In this scenario, Bitcoin could target 95,126, with further resistance at 98,500. Conclusion: The price remains at a pivotal level, with 88,000 acting as a key resistance. Failure to break above this level could reinforce downside risks, while a breakout could shift momentum back in favor of bulls. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before positioning for the next move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:BTCUSD
by TradeNation
BTC/USD Weekly Analysis – Key Levels & Market Structure📌 Major Trend Channel : The price remains within a long-term ascending channel. It recently rejected the upper boundary and is currently testing key support zones. 📌 Key Support Zone: The price is reacting to the SNR - Support level. If this level holds, a potential bounce toward 100,297 (mid-channel level) could be expected. 📌 Order Blocks & Imbalance: There are key liquidity zones, including a discount price imbalance and resistance order block around $55K-$60K, which could act as a magnet in case of further corrections. 📌 Potential Upside Targets: If bullish momentum resumes, the next target aligns with the channel’s 50% level at $100,297, before retesting the upper boundary. 🔍 Overall Bias: Short-term retracement possible, but bullish structure remains intact above $73,969 support. Risk Warning: Trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure you fully understand the risks and seek independent advice if necessary.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Rahmatullayev_Halilulloh
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-14-25: Temp BottomToday's Cycle Pattern is a Temporary Bottom pattern. I suspect the markets may attempt to move a bit lower in early trading before attempting to find a new base/support level. Yesterday's low may prove to be very important depending on what the markets do today. Initially, I thought yesterday's low was the Temporary Bottom pattern (one day early). But, I do believe the markets will continue to be volatile in early trading today and may move downward to retest lows before trying to move higher - setting up the Temporary Bottom pattern. Gold and Silver will likely continue to melt upward unless there is some big news that disrupts the US Dollar's downward slide. I see Gold trying to rally above $3200 very quickly over the next 15+ days. Bitcoin is still consolidating and is currently in a short upward price phase (much like the SPY/QQQ). In fact, the SPY/QQQ and Bitcoin are all in an EPP consolidation phase. So, that means even though we may see a volatile type of price move over the next 15-30+ days, price is ultimately trapped in a consolidated price range and will/should attempt to break downward into the Ultimate Low. Therefore, if we get a moderate pullback/rally phase over the next 5+ trading days, be aware that the rally upward will end near March 21-24 and turn downward very sharply before the end of March (based on my research). You have lots of opportunity if this base sets up for a moderate rally in the SPY/QQQ, but play it cautiously as I don't believe we'll see new ATHs anytime soon. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
Bitcoin will reach $221,000The chart explicitly labels a "Breakout" point around December 15, 2024, where the price moves above the $80,000 resistance level of the ascending triangle. This breakout is a significant technical event, suggesting strong buying pressure and a continuation of the uptrend. Following the breakout, the chart notes a "Retracement" phase, where the price pulls back to test the breakout level (now acting as support at approximately $80,000). This behavior is common in technical analysis, as prices often retest previous resistance levels after a breakout to confirm support. As of March 14, 2025, the current price of $80,228.30 is just above the $80,000 level, suggesting the price may be in the early stages of this retracement or has recently stabilized after testing the support. This positioning indicates potential buying opportunities for traders looking for entry points near this level, with expectations of further upward movement. Projected Price Target: $221,000 One of the most notable annotations on the chart is the "TG $221,000" label, which stands for "Target Price" of $221,000. This target is projected based on the breakout from the ascending triangle, likely calculated by taking the height of the triangle (the difference between the resistance at $80,000 and the lowest support at $55,000, which is $25,000) and adding it to the breakout level ($80,000 + $25,000 = $105,000). However, the chart's projection to $221,000 suggests a more aggressive target, possibly involving a multiple of the height (e.g., 3x the height, $80,000 + $75,000 = $155,000, still not reaching $221,000) or a Fibonacci extension beyond standard calculations. Given the significant gap between the current price ($80,228.30) and the target ($221,000), this projection is an unexpected detail, implying a potential multi-fold increase in Bitcoin's value. It aligns with the chart's bullish patterns but involves considerable uncertainty, as market conditions, macroeconomic factors, and adoption rates could influence actual price movements. Additional Technical Observations Beyond the ascending channel and triangle, the chart includes several other technical elements: Support and Resistance Levels: The $80,000 level, initially a resistance during the triangle, becomes a key support level post-breakout. The lower trendline of the ascending channel also acts as dynamic support throughout the uptrend, providing a floor for price corrections. Volume Indicator (Implied): While not explicitly shown, breakouts like the one labeled are often accompanied by increased volume, which would confirm the strength of the move. Without a visible volume histogram, this remains an inference. Fibonacci Retracement (Potential): The retracement after the breakout could be analyzed using Fibonacci levels (e.g., 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) to identify key support zones, though these are not drawn on the chart. Momentum and Moving Averages (Implied): Although not visible, momentum indicators like RSI or MACD could provide additional insights. For instance, a strong breakout might correlate with overbought RSI, while the retracement could indicate a return to neutral levels. Moving averages (e.g., 50-day, 200-day) might have supported the uptrend earlier, with the price potentially approaching these for support during retracements. Implications for Traders The analysis suggests Bitcoin is in a robust bullish trend, supported by the ascending channel, triangle breakout, and projected target. Traders may consider the following strategies: Buy on Pullbacks: Look for buying opportunities near the $80,000 support level, especially if volume and other indicators confirm buying pressure. Target Setting: Use the projected target of $221,000 as a long-term goal, but be mindful of market volatility and external factors that could affect price. Risk Management: Given the significant gap to the target, set stop-loss levels below key support (e.g., below $80,000) to manage risk.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by sohaibfx
Bitcoin is Headed to $36K And It’s Happening NOW!This might not be the most popular opinion, especially among those who still believe the current Bitcoin bull cycle hasn’t ended. However, I encourage you to take a few minutes, approach this with an open mind, and let me know whether you agree or disagree. Understanding the Previous Cycle (2020–2021) The last Bitcoin bull cycle began in March 2020, when BTC bottomed at approximately $3,810. It then surged to an all-time high (ATH) of $69,870 in November 2021, marking the cycle top. By applying a Fibonacci retracement to this entire range, we can see that the golden pocket (0.618 - 0.786 Fib)—often a key support zone during bear markets—fell between $17,700 and $28,690. Looking at the chart, BTC beautifully retraced into this zone, even dipping slightly below it to form a cycle bottom at $15,500 in November 2022. The key sign that the bear market had ended and a new bull market had begun was when Bitcoin broke above the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the previous cycle and established a higher high on the weekly chart. This marked a clear shift from a bearish to a bullish market structure. The Current Cycle (2022–2025) From the November 2022 bottom, Bitcoin rallied, setting a new ATH at $73,600—just slightly above the previous peak. After some consolidation, it found strong support at the 0.236 Fib level of the previous bull cycle, signaling that the uptrend was still intact. The real breakout came when BTC surpassed the psychological $100,000 level and consolidated around the -0.5 Fib extension of the previous cycle. The cycle top appears to have been put in after Donald Trump took office in January 2025, marking an approximately 26-month bull run—longer than previous cycles. However, a major bear market confirmation signal has now emerged: BTC has decisively broken below the 0.236 Fib retracement of this cycle, which historically signals the end of a bull market and the beginning of a new bear phase. Where is the Next Bottom? By analyzing the Fibonacci levels of both the previous and current bull cycles, we can identify key potential support zones where Bitcoin may bottom out: 1. $51,370 - $53,700 • This range aligns with: • 0.236 Fib of the previous bull cycle • 0.618 Fib of the most recent bull cycle • This zone has confluence, making it a high-probability support level. 2. $35,600 - $36,500 • This range aligns with: • 0.5 Fib of the previous bull cycle • 0.786 Fib of the most recent bull cycle • If BTC breaks below the first support zone, this is the next key level to watch. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets last around one year, so we can expect this downward trend to play out over a similar timeframe. How to Position Yourself? For long-term investors, these support zones offer prime buying opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices before the next bull run begins. While the market won’t move in a straight line down—expect bounces and fake-outs—the general expectation is that BTC will find its next higher low within one of these zones. Looking Ahead: Next Bull Cycle Target If we use the same -0.5 Fib extension strategy that predicted the previous cycle’s top, we can estimate the next bull market peak. Based on the current cycle’s Fib range, the projected ATH for the next bull run would be around $157,000. Final Thoughts While nobody can predict the future with certainty, historical price action, Fibonacci levels, and market structure provide strong clues about where BTC is headed next. As always, flexibility is key—if market conditions change, so should our expectations. But if history repeats itself, these levels offer a solid framework for identifying the best entry points and positioning for the next major bull run. What do you think? Do you agree with this analysis, or do you see it differently? Let me know in the comments!
Short
by bigcheese421
4
BTC/USDT Reversal scenariosThere is bear mood in market, its exactly what is needed for reversal, lets have a look closer. I see 3 options. 1) Manipulation is over, we reached the target of local FIBO 1.618 at 77055$ 2) Level 73764$ - its the target of Double TOP , the edge/high of the last block and 0.618 level of grand FIBO 3) POC level of last accumulation block which lasted for 255d at 67436$ - we could reach this level only with fast squeeze and fast buy back, leaving long needle on higher timeframe
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by HeavyLT
BITCOIN Is this a Falling Wedge bottom formation?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading since the February 28 Low within a Falling Wedge pattern, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and at the same time supported by the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). Throughout its dominant Bull Cycle pattern, the +2 year Channel Up, it has formed another 6 such Falling Wedges, all below the 1D MA50 and all turned out to be market bottom formations, which paved the way for an immediate bullish break-out. On all occasions, the 1D CCI has been almost as low as on the February Low. The shortest rebound it made before another break below the 1D MA50, was +26.68% and the highest was +106.96%. As a result this gives us a minimum immediate potential Target of $96800 and a maximum of a little more than $150000. Given that the price has touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, like the bottom formations of September 06 2024 and September 11 2023, it is quite likely to see the stronger rebound probability taking place. But what do you think would be the case? Is this a classical Falling Wedge bottom break-out formation and if so what may be the Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
6