1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin Gains, Ethereum Struggles, Hashprice SurgesBitcoin Eyes Further Gains as Ethereum Struggles With Declining Demand and Bitcoin Hashprice Hits One-Month Highs, A Bullish Signal for Miners
The cryptocurrency market is a dynamic and ever-shifting landscape, with different assets experiencing varying fortunes. While Ethereum grapples with declining demand and network activity, Bitcoin is showing signs of renewed strength, buoyed by positive on-chain metrics and a resurgence in miner profitability.1 This article delves into the factors contributing to Bitcoin's current momentum, contrasting it with Ethereum's struggles and highlighting the significance of rising hashprice for Bitcoin miners.
Bitcoin's Resurgence: A Confluence of Positive Factors
Several factors are contributing to Bitcoin's current positive trajectory:
• Renewed Institutional Interest: Despite the bear market of 2022, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains significant. Many institutional investors view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value and a hedge against inflation.2 Recent reports suggest renewed inflows into Bitcoin investment products, indicating a resurgence of institutional confidence.
• Positive On-Chain Metrics: On-chain metrics, such as the number of active addresses, transaction volume, and long-term holder accumulation, provide valuable insights into the health of the Bitcoin network. Several key on-chain indicators are currently flashing bullish signals, suggesting increasing network activity and strong holding behavior.
• Growing Adoption: While still early, Bitcoin adoption continues to grow globally. More businesses are accepting Bitcoin as payment, and more individuals are using it as a store of value. This growing adoption contributes to Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.
• Hashprice Surge: One of the most significant indicators of Bitcoin's current strength is the resurgence of hashprice. This metric, which represents the estimated revenue a miner earns per unit of hashing power, has hit one-month highs. This increase is a direct result of both rising Bitcoin prices and increased transaction fees, providing much-needed relief to miners.
Ethereum's Struggles: Declining Demand and Network Activity
In contrast to Bitcoin's positive momentum, Ethereum is facing challenges related to declining demand and network activity. Several factors contribute to this downturn:
• Competition from Layer-2 Solutions: The rise of layer-2 scaling solutions on other blockchains has diverted some activity away from the Ethereum mainnet. These solutions offer faster and cheaper transactions, making them attractive alternatives for certain use cases.
• Decreased DeFi Activity: The decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, which was a major driver of Ethereum's growth in 2020 and 2021, has seen a significant decline in activity. This decline has reduced demand for Ethereum block space and contributed to lower transaction fees.
• NFT Market Cool-Down: The non-fungible token (NFT) market, another significant driver of Ethereum network activity, has also experienced a cooling-off period. This has further reduced demand for Ethereum transactions.
Bitcoin Hashprice: A Bullish Signal for Miners
The recent surge in Bitcoin hashprice is a crucial development for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Hashprice is calculated by dividing the total revenue earned by miners (from both block rewards and transaction fees) by the total network hash rate. A higher hashprice indicates increased profitability for miners.
The combination of rising Bitcoin prices and increasing transaction fees has driven the recent increase in hashprice. This is particularly important because miner profitability is crucial for the security and stability of the Bitcoin network. When miners are profitable, they are incentivized to continue securing the network, ensuring its resilience against attacks.
The Significance of Transaction Fees
Transaction fees play a vital role in the Bitcoin network. They incentivize miners to include transactions in blocks and contribute to the network's long-term sustainability. As the block reward (the amount of Bitcoin awarded to miners for each block they mine) continues to halve approximately every four years, transaction fees will become an increasingly important source of revenue for miners.
The recent increase in transaction fees is a positive sign for the Bitcoin network's long-term health. It demonstrates that users are willing to pay for block space, indicating continued demand for Bitcoin transactions.
Conclusion
While Ethereum faces challenges related to declining demand and network activity, Bitcoin is showing signs of renewed strength, driven by positive on-chain metrics, renewed institutional interest, and a resurgence in miner profitability. The recent surge in hashprice, fueled by rising Bitcoin prices and increasing transaction fees, is a particularly bullish signal for the Bitcoin ecosystem. This combination of factors suggests that Bitcoin is well-positioned for further gains in the near future.
It's important to remember that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. However, the current3 trends suggest that Bitcoin is entering a period of renewed strength, while Ethereum faces headwinds that could impact its short-term performance. The dynamic nature of the crypto market necessitates continuous monitoring and adaptation to new information.
Inverse H&SH BTC ready to break outThis is a long term chart I have used for years, and keep adding to it. Now I see these trend lines, made a long time ago coming into play again, thee fib is from the last cycle high to low with extions to look at all .618s . BTC just hit 1.618 I see 2 or 3 maybe the 4.618 this cycle, nut haven the plan to ladder out as we get closer to areas shaded in the chart.
If this inverse h & sh in yellow breaks up then BTC measured move is to 125K the 2.0 extension, then restests along the way, but look at the old whit trend lines and see hoe btc cant touch the top as in makes this move
this is public and my handle is Chefrusty, you are welcome to use it as a guide, the indicators are hidden right now and some are paid for, but the chart is a good guide for this bull run and has been backtested for time and percetage gains, watch for sell in May and go away, anf then buy back in is Sept this year. BUT BUT BUT how different will this cycle be than the others with crypto firendly president?
WHEN WILL BTC TOP OUT?Most of people are trying to catch the exact BTC top. Remember to not let the FOMO to get you. Now, it's not the time to buy BTC, because i think it will range between $88.000 to $111.000 for the next months. I think it is possible that BTC will top out around May/June, and will slowly start to reverse this summer. Later this year, around October/November, will start to accumulate shorts below $90.000, and this will be a sign to add more shorts. Main bear target is $40.000
Bitcoin (BTC) EW-Analysis // 1/22/2025Hi guys,
how are doing? BTC hit a new ATH in the last days, so i thought I should publish a new idea... 👍
Please read the DICLAIMER at the end of this idea!!!
So let's get right into it:
Bitcoin has shown impressive performance recently, demonstrating remarkable strength in the market. Currently, we find ourselves at the 3.854 Fibonacci level, and the chart suggests that we may witness further bullish momentum in the coming days. There is a strong possibility that Bitcoin could climb as high as $118,000. However, caution is advised above this level, as we could potentially reach the completion of the overarching Wave 1. If this happens, significant corrections may follow, which could test the resilience of many investors.
The rest of the details can be analyzed directly on the chart. Now, we wait to see how the big players in the market decide to position themselves.
'In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.' ~ Robert Arnott
DISCLAIMER: The above statements reflect a trading idea and are neither investment advice nor trading recommendations. All information is provided without guarantee or liability.
Bye
Rara es
itcoin Intraday Highlights (Thesis Prediction)Market Position:
Current Price: $104,492.92, down -1.56% in the last 24 hours.
Resistance: $106,394 | Support: $103,700.
Trend: Short-term bearish but within consolidation as price stays inside Bollinger Bands.
Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (14): 45.38, approaching neutral, easing selling pressure.
MACD (30-min): Bearish signal, with histogram at -141.18.
Bollinger Bands: Price near the lower band, suggesting potential support or further downside.
On-Chain Insights:
Exchange Balances: Binance BTC holdings at 1.81M BTC, signaling reduced selling pressure.
Funding Rates (Binance): Neutral (0.00100%), indicating no strong directional bias.
Market Sentiment:
Fear & Greed Index: 84 (Extreme Greed) despite recent decline.
Trading Volume: Dropped -31.89% to $112.68B, signaling reduced activity or consolidation.
Scenarios:
Bullish (35%): Rebound from $103,700 support; test of $106,000+.
Bearish (50%): Break below $103,700; potential drop to $100,000.
Sideways (15%): Range-bound trading between $103,700–$106,394 until a catalyst appears.
Note: Watch for breakout or breakdown signals and manage risk due to Bitcoin's high volatility.
Target: $3800. Local review of the pair Eth/Usd 19.01.25Good evening, dear friends!
Local review of eth/usd pair from 19.01.25:
On ether I don't see any prerequisites for working from a short. The price is currently moving inside the local “triangle”, compressing the spring. The main volume level is marked in yellow color. If it is broken and, in case there is no excessive supply of sellers ~3500$, I expect the up-trend to continue on aggressive purchases to the price range of 3750-3850$.
The second scenario, unlikely:
Breaking through the lower accumulation boundary and going beyond $3072. This would indicate the strength of sellers and lack of sufficient buyer demand. That is where we should have a stop-loss on the position.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
110-112k SOON! Analysis update on Btc/Usd pairBrave sailors, welcome, everyone!
A small update on the btc/usd pair due to the fact that I accidentally closed my previous post.
I still do not see globally any preconditions for further price reversal. Yes, it is quite likely that we will first touch the zone beyond 100k$, where a huge amount of liquidity is concentrated in the form of longists' stops. I hold my position, I will sell around 110-112k$. Always use risk management!
Market Thoughts
Bloomberg: Donald and Melania's memcoins undermine confidence in the cryptocurrency industry
The launch of the eponymous meme coins has sparked a flurry of criticism from experts and investors. Expectations about the development of the digital sector under the new administration were replaced by doubts, as the projects reinforced the negative perception of cryptocurrencies as unstable and unserious assets.
At the same time, the cryptocurrency market as a whole has experienced a downturn: capital going into memcoins has led to a deterioration in trading of other assets, including Bitcoin. Experts have noted concerns about conflicts of interest and undermining confidence in the industry. I, in turn, believe that by doing so, Trump is fueling interest in new money, which will be extremely positive for the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
Today is Martin L. King Day, a day off for the U.S. market, which also reduces liquidity and may lead to sharp and chaotic movements.
At the current moment we see growth in cryptocurrency market, stocks, currencies, etc. Regarding our scenario on btc/usd pair: the price has confidently overcome the main resistance zone, having updated the maximum and almost reached our target zone of 110-112k$.
As I wrote earlier, I believe that after Trump's inauguration, the markets will continue to be in euphoria and we should see good moves in major altcoins. In this situation, I bet on ether and the major altcoins from this network. Again, don't forget about risk management. The cryptocurrency market is an extremely unpredictable place.
I wish everyone successful trading operations, my brave sailors!
Bitcoin - Market unease continues...Market unease continues, with any small disruption potentially triggering panic and a sharp sell-off. It's uncertain whether this will lead to long-term manipulation for buying at lower prices or signal a significant collapse of the crypto bubble.
The grey zone on the chart represents a key decision point - keep a close eye on it for potential movement.
Heed your DD!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-22-25: BreakAway PatternToday's BreakAway pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move aggressively away from yesterday's closing price level. I do believe the markets are over-extended to the upside. Which is why I continue to warn traders that we may be nearing a top/peak price level and to prepare for a rollover type of top in the SPY/QQQ.
My broad cycle patterns suggested the markets would top near Jan 20-21. I believe we are seeing a type of carryover momentum move to the upside as a result of optimism related to the Inauguration.
Now that the Inauguration is complete, I believe the markets will start to "resettle" into reality.
The SPY/QQQ should move into a rolling type of top pattern over the next 3-5+ days, then trend downward into my Feb 9-11 DEEP-V Base/Bottom.
Gold and Silver are likely to move higher in an attempt to hedge against global risks and uncertainty.
BTCUSD is moving through the current EPP pattern as the flagging breaks down. This should prompt a move back to the 92k level, then a brief pause before trending further downward.
Remember, the markets are likely to stall out through H1:2025. Get ready for volatile price swings before we move back into trending near the end of 2025.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
What will happen to Bitcoin?This scenario can be considered the second scenario for Bitcoin. Before this, we had a triangle pattern for Bitcoin with higher targets.
Given the significant pauses in the current move, a diametric scenario for Bitcoin can also be considered, with a target of 121K - 126K.
If price is rejected from this level, the diametric scenario will be confirmed.
The green box also serves as the near-term support.
Let's see what happens next.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Bitcoin Overshoot - Last Bullish Swing - 5th WaveMARKETSCOM:BITCOIN #trading was good to me.
I was able to predict and ride the #Bullish #Cycle like a pro.
Trade Recap
From the $17K I was actively looking for buys.
Also entered BITSTAMP:BTCUSD #Long from the GETTEX:25K mark, on the #Break-out.
At the Wave 4 Completion and 5th Wave Break-Out, I went Long again on $BTC.
At $100K Milestone I cashed it all in, I was a bit weary...
All well documented in the previous #Bitcoin Idea.
What's Next For MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN ?
I am entering the Last Long, to ride the 5th of 5th Wave.
After this #Bull #Swing I am expecting a considerable #Correction.
After the push, some wild moves will occur, and that's because of the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D (BTC Dominance).
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D Correction in Wave 2 will pave the way for $Altcoins (#Altcoins), thus the $Altseason (#AltSeason) to start.
Yes, MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN shall fall, while the CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 ) would most likely grow in #TotalMarketCap.
* You can see the related ideas for more clearance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD / BINANCE:BTCUSDT - #TechnicalAnalysis
- Elliott Wave: #Impulse Confirmed (5th Wave)
- Mar '20 - Apr '21 #Fractal (orange)
- #ATH Break-Out & #Support
My Levels For Longs
- Entry @ $100K
- SL @ $85K
- TP @ $145K
* After this move, I will take a break and look for #Short set-ups.
This is because of the #Bearish #Fractal (red).
BTC/USDT 1H: Bulls Building for a Break to $109K!BTC/USDT 1H Chart Analysis
🚀 Follow me on Tradingview if you respect our charts 📈
Current Price: $104,991
Market Structure:
Consolidation phase after rejection at $107,200.
Accumulation visible at the $103,000-$104,000 support zone.
Key Levels:
Support: $103,000-$104,000
Resistance Targets:
T1: $107,200 (+2.2%)
T2: $109,000 (+3.9%)
Stop Loss: Below $102,800 (-2%).
Momentum Indicators:
RSI: 48.5 (neutral), showing hidden bullish divergence forming.
Trade Strategy (Confidence Level: 8/10):
Entry:
Scale in: 40% at $104,900, 30% at $104,000
Targets:
T1: $107,200
T2: $109,000
Risk Score: 7/10
Market Maker Activity:
Accumulation at support suggests institutional buying.
Liquidity grab below $104,000 followed by a swift recovery indicates strength.
Likely targeting previous highs once consolidation completes.
Notes:
Wait for confirmation above $105,500 for aggressive entries.
Volume profile shows healthy institutional interest.
Recommendation:
Long positions with proper scaling and risk management.
Watch for breakout confirmation above $105,500 for higher confidence.
Confidence Level: 8/10 for bullish continuation.
🚀 Follow me on Tradingview if you respect our charts 📈
BTC Bullish + Bearish PredictionsThis analysis is based on VWAP, one of the most definitive levels that determine the future trend direction.
Right now we are sitting well above the VWAP anchored to 1/13 where the pivot low for out most recent move up began. Depending on the price action, the strong overall sentiment for BTC is strong enough to take it past the 108k ATH, despite many technicals suggesting we are overdue for a large pullback down to the 70ks.
What needs to happen is for accumulation to happen between the 102k and 105k levels, and continue through to the ATH such that buyers can hold thru any pushback/resistance at 108K and 109k, the next resistance level. If it can push us through 109, then our next resistance will be at 111k and 113k, which is also the zone where I would guess the retracement from the next ATH may return to. We may top out at 113550, which is both a macro fib level and a stddev extension of the VWAP, if bullish sentiment is not strong enough. If it can break 113500, we may just go exponential to 125 or 128k, where it should retrace to 113K, or even shallower.
The bearish case is a fast run up past 108k, losing steam at 109k or 111k, consolidating for a short while between 109 and 105 where bears can build their positions and then take us back under 101k. There are key VWAP levels in black around 102k that if we break and close below, will almost certainly shift the odds towards going back down.
Ive included a second VWAP anchored to a more recent pivot low, where the value sits at 104950 currently, a break below may not necessarily spell doom for bulls but the price action between that level and the main VWAP around 102k may tell you something about the current bull/bear sentiment.
If you are bullish it would be wise to build your position below 105k whenever you have the chance, and to encourage the breakouts at 108 ATH, 109700, 111000-111500, and 113500. For bears you are looking for strong resistance showing up at 109750, then at around 111k, accumulating your shorts between 109k and 105k with the goal of breaking through 101k.
Here's a brief analysis of the chart for Gold Spot (XAUUSD) Here's a brief analysis of the chart for Gold Spot (XAUUSD) against the U.S. Dollar:
The chart shows an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish market. There are several "break of structure" (bos) points where the price has broken previous resistance levels, suggesting strong momentum. The current price is around 2,730.530, with a breakout at this level hinting at a potential upward movement towards the projected price target of 2,762.140. The resistance level is approximately 2,740.000, while there's a support zone marked by a shaded area below the current price.
Overall, the chart suggests that the gold price might continue to rise, making it a good time for bullish trades.
*Short-term target*: 2,740.000 - This is the immediate resistance level. If the price breaks above this level, it could move towards the next target.
2. *Medium-term target*: 2,762.140 - This is the projected price target if the bullish momentum continues and the price breaks through the resistance at 2,740.000.
Keep in mind that these targets are based on current market trends and technical analysis. It's always a good idea to monitor the market closely and adjust your strategy as needed.
When Doing Nothing Is the Hardest TradeSometimes, the most difficult decision in trading is deciding not to trade. Today is one of those days.
The current market conditions are complex. On one hand, I see a high probability of a correction. But on the other, the market is running hot, and shorting doesn’t feel like the best option. Volatility in BTC is narrowing, and volumes are steadily declining—clear signs that the market is building up for a decisive move in either direction.
In such a scenario, shorting becomes exceptionally challenging. The tightening range suggests the market is preparing to break out, but the direction remains uncertain. Jumping in prematurely could mean getting caught on the wrong side of the move.
So, today is a no-trade day. Sometimes, sitting on the sidelines and waiting for clarity is the smartest move a trader can make. After all, patience is a virtue in markets as much as it is in life.
Bitcoin is building pressure for a real breakFor over a month, BTC has been trading within a range, with well-defined support at the 90k level and resistance around the 110k zone.
Two days ago, the price briefly reached a marginal new all-time high before reversing. However, following this pullback, the price quickly recovered. Over the past five trading days, it’s clear that the price is building momentum, creating pressure for a potential breakout.
If (and when) this breakout occurs, it could lead to a continuation of the upward trend, with a measured target around the 130k level.
Bitcoin teases a record high (but I'm not 'buying' it)While my bias for bitcoin futures to reach 125k remain in play, I'm a tad suspicious of its attempt to take out the previous record high with any conviction this week. I take a closer look at trading volumes and futures market positioning to explain why.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and TradingView