BITCOIN Just like 2017 - The $300k prediction is happening!Bitcoin / BTCUSD continues to replicate the 2014-2017 Cycle, giving us a clear perspective of the bullish trend amidst the high volatility since the start of the year.
The different phases since the bottom are identical between the two Cycles and right now we are on Phase 4, supported firmly by the 1week MA50.
Hard to believe but if history continues to repeat itself, BTC may skyrocket as high as $300k by the end of this Cycle.
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1-BTCUSD
BTC bottom at 2D 200MA?I think we're following the fractal of 2021 bull market, and I was looking for similarities between the consolidation phase that came after the sharp decline. And in fact, there are some similarities.
The first test of the 200MA on the 2D chart and the build-up of a bullish divergence with a fakeout below the trend line on the RSI. It's not exactly the same, but I would say it's very similar.
This week should give a good bounce from the 2D 200MA for the fractal to remain relevant. In case of a breakdown, this idea is canceled.
Volume fades, double top forms – is Bitcoin headed to 70k?CRYPTOCAP:BTC is showing signs of exhaustion near the $83,500–$84,000 zone, with repeated rejections indicating weakening bullish momentum. Volume is steadily declining, which typically signals a lack of conviction from buyers.
We may be witnessing the formation of a potential double top – a bearish reversal pattern. If confirmed, this could trigger a correction toward $78K, $74K, or even the $70K–$68K zone.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $83,500–$84,000
Support: $78,000 → $74,000 → $70,000 → $68,000
This corrective move could be healthy for the market, potentially flushing out weak hands and injecting fresh liquidity for a stronger upward rally in the coming weeks.
BTCUSD INTRADAY oversold bounce capped at 88000Recent price action in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) suggests an oversold bounce, with resistance capping gains at the 88,000 level. The continuation of selling pressure could extend the downside move, with key support levels at 76,144, followed by 74,420 and 73,283.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 84,600, accompanied by a daily close higher, would invalidate the bearish outlook. In this scenario, Bitcoin could target 88,000, with further resistance at 91,890.
Conclusion:
The price remains below pivotal level, with 88,000 acting as a key resistance. Failure to break above this level could reinforce downside risks, while a breakout could shift momentum back in favor of bulls. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before positioning for the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-11 : Break-Away in CarryoverToday's Break-away pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move (break) away from yesterday's Body range. I believe this trend, after the recent Ultimate Low in price, will be to the upside.
I know a lot of people are asking, "why do you think the markets are going to rally now - after you suggested the markets would trend downward?"
Things have changed now that we have a 90-day pause in the tariff wars. Yes, China is still an issue - but the rest of the world seems to have a pause on the tariff wars as negotiations continue.
I believe the removal of the tariff pressure on the markets will result in a moderate upward trend as we move into Q1:2025 earnings season.
Still, I don't believe we will see new ATHs anytime soon. But I do believe the 580+ level on the SPY is a potential high price level that can be reached before the end of April 2025.
Gold and Silver are moving into a GAP trend move today. I believe the GAP will be to the upside and I believe Gold and Silver will continue to rally.
Silver is really low in terms of comparison to Gold. Silver could make a very big move to the upside over the next 30+ days.
BTCUSD is still consolidating into the narrow range I suggested would happen before the bigger breakdown event near the end of April (into early May).
Everything is playing out just as I expected. The big change is the removal of the tariffs for 75+ nations (for now). That will give the markets some room to the upside and we need to understand how price structure is playing out into an A-B-C wave structure.
Get some.
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BTC-----Sell around 81600, target 80500 areaTechnical analysis of BTC contract on April 11:
Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small negative line yesterday, and the K-line pattern was a single negative and a single positive. The price was at a low level, and the attached indicator was dead cross. However, the price fluctuation seemed large, but in fact there was no amplitude. Yesterday, the price fell, and the support rebounded in the early morning, basically smoothing out the decline. In this way, the current trend is still in correction, but it does not mean that you can take risks to go long. I think shorting at high levels is still the best choice; the short-cycle hourly chart showed that the decline in the European session continued in the US session yesterday, but it did not continue in the early morning but was a correction of the trend. The current K-line pattern is continuous positive, and the attached indicator is running in a golden cross. Yesterday, the high point of the opening of the decline was near the 82,500 area. Today, we still rely on this position for defense.
Today's BTC short-term contract trading strategy: sell at the rebound of the 81,600 area, stop loss at the 82,100 area, and target the 80,500 area;
Bitcoin Trade Setup: Bullish Breakout Targeting $87K!🔹 Key Levels Identified:
📌 Target Point: 87,008.21 USD 🏁🔵
👉 Expected price move (+9.07%) 🚀
📌 Entry Point: 79,719.00 USD ✅
👉 Suggested buying level in demand zone 🏦
📌 Stop Loss: 78,213.25 USD ❌🔻
👉 Risk management level 📉
📊 Technical Analysis:
📈 Trendline Support:
🔵 The price bounced off the trendline 📊, confirming an uptrend 📈
🔵 Demand Zone:
🟦 Marked blue area = Buyer interest 📊
💰 Expected reversal zone if price retests
📊 Moving Average (DEMA 9):
🔸 82,343.85 USD (current level)
🔺 Price slightly below DEMA ➝ possible bullish reversal 🚀
⚡ Trade Setup:
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
🟢 Potential profit: +7,220.76 USD
🔴 Risk: -1,500 USD
📊 Favorable trade setup with high reward vs low risk ✅
✔️ Momentum Confirmation:
🟢 Above 79,719 USD = 🚀 Bullish breakout
🔴 Below 78,213.25 USD = ❌ Stop Loss triggered
🔮 Conclusion:
🔥 Bullish setup if price holds demand zone!
🚀 Target: 87,008 USD
⚠️ Manage risk with stop loss! 📉
BTC Breakout from Falling Wedge – Targeting $111KBitcoin recently experienced a corrective phase following a strong uptrend that topped near $115,000. After facing rejection at this level, price action shifted into a downward structure, forming a falling wedge pattern, which is typically considered a bullish reversal signal.
🔷 Pattern Formation : Falling Wedge
The chart reveals a clearly defined falling wedge (marked by two converging descending trendlines).
Price action respected the wedge boundaries multiple times, confirming the pattern's validity.
The wedge started forming after the CHoCH (Change of Character), indicating a structural shift from bullish to bearish.
The pattern ended with a bullish breakout, suggesting the return of upward momentum.
🟩 Key Technical Zones :
Resistance Zone: $111,000 – $115,000
Previously tested multiple times; a major supply zone.
Support Zone: $74,000 – $75,000
This area held as support three times, forming a triple bottom, reinforcing its strength.
Breakout Point: ~ $80,000
Price broke above the descending resistance trendline of the wedge.
📌 Trade Setup Overview:
✅ Entry:
Ideal long entry after the breakout from the wedge, confirmed with bullish momentum and daily candle close above resistance.
🎯 Targets:
TP1: ~$90,000 — minor resistance area and psychological level.
TP2: ~$100,000 — significant level, aligns with previous structural highs.
Final Target: $111,755 — retest of the macro resistance zone from the previous peak.
🛡 Stop Loss (SL):
Placed below the strong support at $74,014, just outside the pattern structure.
This provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and protects against a false breakout.
📈 Structure and Price Flow:
The projection (marked with blue arrows and yellow circles) outlines a typical Elliott-style impulse:
Breakout
Minor pullback
Continuation to TP1 and TP2
Final wave targeting previous highs
🔎 Additional Insights:
Volume (not shown): A breakout from a wedge is typically confirmed by an increase in volume. Traders should validate that volume accompanies the breakout.
Risk Management: Conservative traders might consider scaling in after retest of the breakout trendline.
Macro Confluence: Breakout aligns with broader bullish sentiment in crypto markets, further supporting the setup.
📌 Conclusion:
This is a textbook falling wedge breakout pattern with a strong support base and clear bullish targets. The structure favors a long position with well-defined risk levels and multiple take-profit zones. The projected move to $111K+ remains valid as long as price holds above the $74K support region.
Fading Risk Sentiment Supports Solana Amid Crypto SlumpLast week, Mint Finance published a comparison of Solana with other blockchain networks, focusing on speed, transaction costs, network size, and valuation. We emphasized Solana’s unique position in the decentralized application (dApp) space—particularly in NFTs and meme coin trading—where it has cultivated a loyal user base by offering low fees and fast transaction speeds.
While Solana’s network growth has been notable, its token performance tells a more nuanced story. The token generally trades with a high correlation to broader crypto markets, though it has experienced periods of divergence that have presented attractive spread opportunities.
Solana sits further out on the risk curve compared to BTC and ETH, exhibiting higher volatility. It tends to outperform in risk-on environments, delivering stronger returns during market rallies. However, during risk-off periods, it typically underperforms as investors favor more established and resilient assets like BTC.
Amid the current turbulence in crypto markets, this paper examines Solana’s relative outlook versus BTC and ETH, and outlines how investors can position accordingly using CME Solana and Micro Solana futures.
Recap of Solana Performance and Volatility
After a strong recovery from its 2022 lows following the FTX collapse, Solana began trading closely in line with BTC throughout 2024. Both were among the top-performing crypto assets last year. However, since January, this trend has reversed, with Solana surrendering most of its year-to-date gains.
Data Source: TradingView
Historical volatility across SOL, ETH, and BTC follows a similar trend but varies in magnitude. SOL consistently exhibits the highest volatility, followed by ETH, with BTC being the least volatile. These differences become more pronounced during volatility spikes, while during calmer periods, their volatility levels tend to converge.
The trend in implied volatility (IV) mirrors that of historical volatility, with SOL showing the highest IV and BTC the lowest. Recently, IV has begun to moderate, driven in part by the tariff rollback.
Relative Performance During Risk-On/Risk-Off Periods
During periods of risk-off sentiment—indicated by spikes in the VIX index—Solana typically underperforms, often experiencing the steepest declines among major crypto assets.
Conversely, during market rallies, Solana tends to outperform, often posting the strongest gains by a significant margin.
Technicals Sentiment
Technical indicators suggest a weakening bearish trend for Solana. Although prices have been declining since January, a rising RSI and MACD are signaling that the downtrend may be approaching a turning point. While the broader macro environment remains challenging, the postponement of U.S. tariffs has offered some short-term relief. Nonetheless, continued macro stress may weigh further on prices. The USD 100 level could serve as a potential support, offering psychological significance for the market.
A review of near-term technical indicators reflects a similar outlook, with multiple signals aligning toward a Buy summary. However, the 1D timeframe still shows a Sell signal, indicating that further downside may be possible before a definitive bottom is established.
In contrast, the near-term outlook for ETH remains bearish, with a Sell signal across most timeframes. Any sentiment improvement has yet to materialize for ETH.
Hypothetical Trade Setup
Solana sits further out on the risk curve compared to assets like ETH and BTC, as reflected in its higher implied and historical volatility, as well as its more extreme price movements. It typically experiences the steepest declines during market corrections but also leads gains during bullish periods.
Since the start of the year, Solana’s price has been in steady decline. However, early technical signals suggest the downtrend may be approaching a turning point, though some near-term weakness could persist.
BTC continues to serve as the crypto market’s safe haven. Despite a 20% correction since January, it has significantly outperformed both SOL and ETH. While Solana has been the weakest performer among the three for most of the downturn, it has recently begun to close the gap with ETH as the correction appears to be nearing its end.
With the performance gap between ETH and SOL narrowing as the correction approaches its end, a tactical long SOL / short ETH position may be attractive. If prices continue to rise or consolidate, SOL is likely to outperform ETH due to its higher beta.
Alternatively, for investors expecting further downside in crypto markets, a long BTC / short SOL position could be compelling. This setup aims to capture relative strength in BTC, which tends to benefit from safe haven flows during periods of market stress.
In order to express these views, investors can deploy CME futures which offer compelling margin offsets for inter-market spreads involving cryptocurrencies which can enhance capital efficiency.
Long Micro SOL, Short Micro ETH
Long 1 x Micro SOL April futures: 117.2 x 25 SOL/contract = notional of USD 2,931
Short 19 x Micro ETH April futures: 1554 x 0.1 ETH/contract x 19 = notional of USD 2,952
This trade requires margin of USD 2,185 as of 11/April (USD 1,255 for 1 x MSL and USD 931 for 19 x MET (49/contract)
CME offers 40% margin offset for this trade as of 11/April reducing margin requirements to USD 1,311
A hypothetical trade setup with a 2x reward to risk ratio is described below:
Long Micro BTC, Short Micro SOL
Long 1 x Micro BTC April futures: 81,250 x 0.1 BTC/contract = notional of USD 8,125
Short 3 x Micro SOL April futures: 117.2 x 25 SOL/contract x 3 = notional of USD 8,793
This trade requires margin of USD 5,678 as of 11/April (USD 1,913 for 1 x MBT and USD 3,765 for 3 x MSL (1,255/contract)
CME offers ~25% margin offset for this trade as of 11/April reducing margin requirements to USD 4,261
A hypothetical trade setup with a reward to risk ratio of 1.6x is described below:
To access the standard size contract spreads, investors can use the ratios of 1 x BTC to 6 x SOL and 2 x ETH to 3 x SOL.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
BTC 97K Long Target Inverse Head and ShouldersTHIS BLUE NECKLINE IS 100% THE LINE TO FOLLOW
Inverse Head And Shoulders
Active Long Target - 97,050
What To Expect?
Trump's tweets are highly volatility just like the markets so rather then trying to call the exact bottom use this for your bull / bear transition. I'm not saying when it will happen... but above the blue line bullish, below it flip bearish despite it would take a number in the 60Ks to invalidate this target.
Downside seems to be the orange support line in 73.8... but money is on 97K sooner than later and this chart staying valid.
Do you think I'm joking ???Chart is speaking itself...
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BTC Continuation to the down sidei shared BTC analysis on DEC 17,2024,
The chart showed a potential rising wedge and breakout from a rising wedge pattern, a subsequent -30.12% drop (over 3.2 million pips), and a key support level should retest around the GETTEX:64K zone
before the next huge up trend
don't forget to take your profit at GETTEX:64K
BITCOIN Can it start an insane rally on CHEAP MONEY??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) seems to be at a point where it last was at the beginning of its current Bull Cycle in October 2022. And that's the point where the Global Liquidity Cycle Indicator (black trend-line) bottomed and started rising, confirming the more on Higher Lows.
This huge buy formation has been present on every BTC Cycle, usually at its bottom (but on the 2015 case, a little after) and signaled the huge monetary supply into the global markets, which translates into rising prices and rallies.
This is the first time we see the same rising liquidity formation twice in a Cycle. Can this be the driving force that BTC needs for its final and strongest parabolic rally of the Cycle towards the end of the year?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC/USDT 1DAY CHART UPDATE !!50-day moving average (red line):
This is a short-term trend indicator. It reacts more quickly to price changes and is often used to identify short-term trends.
When the price is above this moving average, it usually indicates bullish momentum; when it is below, it may signal bearish momentum.
200-day moving average (green line):
This is a long-term trend indicator. It provides a smooth moving average that helps identify the overall trend over a long period.
A price above this line indicates a long-term bullish trend, while a price below it indicates a potentially bearish market.
Current Analysis
Price Action: As of the current date, the price is hovering around the 80,000 USDT, just below the 50-day MA, which may indicate a potential resistance area.
Convergence of MAs: The behavior of both the 50-day and 200-day MAs can provide insight:
If the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA (a “golden cross”), this typically indicates a bullish signal.
Conversely, if it crosses below (a “death cross”), this can indicate a bearish sentiment.
Support and Resistance: The chart also shows areas of support (horizontal green lines) around 76,000 to 80,000 USDT. If the price breaks this resistance, it may have room to move towards the next levels indicated.
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
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DYOR. NFA
$BTC long term projection $129k-$137k top, then down to $20ksHere's a chart of my cycle projection of bitcoin. I think it's likely that we find support in the $60k region over the next couple of weeks and then continue the bull run up to $129k-$137k.
In terms of gains from here, I think BTC is only a 2x, however, I think we're going to see our biggest altcoin run since bitcoin's inception.
After we hit the top, I think we'll make a very large correction back down to the $20k region (supports on the chart) before the next long term cycle begins.
This is the final wave of the first cycle of bitcoin.
Lots of money to be made.
BTC SPX Ratio At Its LimitsAs BTC has matured, it has revealed its limits relative to SPX. Any time the price rises above 15, a correction follows.
While it has not yet cracked I find myself violating my own rules again and compelled to share this chart with you BEFORE the crack.
Markets are volatile and I am simply trying to keep people from getting hurt. Do not make the mistake of thinking BTC is a safe asset.
Bulls best to take profits.
Click boost, follow, subscribe, and let me help you navigate these crazy markets.