Timing the marketThe original idea was made in the first half of the year downtrend. I decided to continue this ridiculously simple idea because it was definitely quite accurate and helpful in maintaining self-confidence during the depression phase. Hope and optimism bring their own challenges.
Orignal idea:
Dated new All-Time-High @ Mon 11 Nov 2024
1-BTCUSD
Understanding the Benefits of Long-Term Bitcoin HoldingThe Bitcoin market has been on a tear, recently surging towards the coveted $100,000 mark. Amidst this bullish momentum, a fascinating trend has emerged: long-term Bitcoin holders, often referred to as "hodlers," are showing no signs of capitulation.1 In fact, they seem more determined than ever to hold onto their coins, even as the price continues to rise.
The Psychology of Hodling
The concept of hodling, a deliberate misspelling of "holding," has become synonymous with the Bitcoin community. It encapsulates the idea of buying and holding Bitcoin for the long term, regardless of short-term price fluctuations. Hodlers are often driven by a deep belief in Bitcoin's potential as a revolutionary technology and a store of value.2
As Bitcoin's price has soared, some investors might be tempted to take profits and cash out. However, long-term holders are resisting this urge, choosing instead to remain patient and steadfast in their conviction. This behavior can be attributed to several factors:
• Belief in Bitcoin's Long-Term Potential: Many hodlers view Bitcoin as a digital gold, a scarce asset with immense value potential. They believe that the current price surge is just the beginning of a much larger upward trend.
• Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): As Bitcoin's price continues to climb, there's a fear of missing out on significant gains. Hodlers may worry that if they sell now, they might regret it later when the price reaches even higher levels.
• The Halving Effect: Bitcoin's supply is halved every four years, reducing the number of new coins entering circulation.4 This event, known as the halving, is expected to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. Hodlers may be anticipating a substantial price increase after the next halving, scheduled for 2024.
• The Network Effect: As more people and institutions adopt Bitcoin, its network effect strengthens. This increased adoption can lead to higher demand, driving the price up further.
Why Hodling is Good for Bitcoin
The fact that long-term holders are resisting the temptation to sell is a positive sign for Bitcoin's future. Here's why:
• Reduced Selling Pressure: When fewer coins are being sold, it reduces selling pressure on the market. This can help to stabilize the price and prevent sharp declines.
• Increased Price Stability: A lower supply of Bitcoin available for sale can lead to increased price stability. This can attract more institutional investors who prefer assets with lower volatility.
• Stronger Market Fundamentals: The behavior of long-term holders demonstrates strong market fundamentals. It suggests that Bitcoin is perceived as a valuable asset with long-term potential.
• Positive Market Sentiment: The resilience of long-term holders can boost market sentiment, attracting new investors and driving further price appreciation.
In conclusion, the greed of long-term Bitcoin holders is a bullish indicator for the cryptocurrency market. Their unwavering belief in Bitcoin's potential, coupled with their willingness to hold onto their coins, is a testament to the strength of the Bitcoin community and the underlying technology. As Bitcoin continues its journey towards mass adoption, the hodlers will likely play a crucial role in shaping its future.
Bitcoin faces downward pressure, can it bounce back?In the recent trading session, Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is showing signs of strong selling pressure as the price fluctuates around $94,300. The technical chart on the 1-hour chart shows that the price is currently testing important support and resistance zones.
Bullish scenario:
If Bitcoin can break above the trigger zone at $95,200, it will signal a recovery, with a target towards the resistance zone from $98,500. This will require support from positive market sentiment and money flowing back into the crypto market.
Bearish scenario:
On the contrary, if Bitcoin breaks the strong support zone at $92,557, the downtrend may continue with a target of a deeper drop to the $88,700 zone. This will be an important price level to assess the selling momentum in the market.
Bitcoin: Should I Buy or Sell?Currently, the BTC/USDT pair is showing clear bearish signals after being rejected at the $98,000 resistance zone and forming a lower high. The RSI is also weakening, signaling price divergence, in the short term, we expect selling pressure to increase.
Short-term downside targets are identified at TP1: $95,729 and TP2: $93,246.
Custom Crash Index Indicates Global Markets Are PanickingI believe the global markets are panicking related to Trump's pending inauguration and the fact that the US Fed may have to keep interest rates elevated through a US austerity process.
If you understand what this means, you'll clearly see why the US Dollar is trading above 106 and why Gold/Silver have moved downward recently.
The process of the US moving into smaller government with potentially $1.?T in excess capital means the US would move into a dynamic BEAST of a global economy. Able to pay down debt, restructure government agencies to become more efficient and lean, while pushing global economies closer and closer to having to clean up their own mess.
This is what I call the Predatory Fed.. and will likely prompt some very big price moves over the next 4-5+ years.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BTC Struggles to Break $100K? Watch These Zone!Good morning, crypto bro's! 🌅
📊 Fear & Greed Index: 79 (Extreme Greed, slight drop).
📉 Stoch RSI: Approaching oversold area.
💡 Analysis:
BTC peaked at FWB:98K yesterday before resuming its correction.
Breaking $100K seems challenging at the moment.
Major probability points to a correction towards the green zone at $85K– GETTEX:82K , as highlighted in previous updates.
📌 Market remains in a greed zone. Better to wait and see for now.
I'm Akki, as always, one chart at a time. Have a great day and stay SAFU!
The key is whether the box section and pull back can be created
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a good day today.
-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The HA-High indicator, which showed signs of being created yesterday, is expected to be created for sure this time.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can be supported near 96372.40 and rise above 98892.0.
-
Since the creation of the HA-High indicator means that a high section has been created, I think that whether there is support near the HA-HIgh indicator can be an important criterion for predicting future trends.
First, we need to check how the box section is formed after the HA-High indicator is created.
Since the box section is usually formed above and below the HA-High indicator, it also means a section that moves sideways to the HA-High indicator section.
However, there are cases where a trend is formed right away without forming a box section, but since such cases are extremely rare, I think you don't need to worry about this.
-
What we need to consider is whether the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator can be touched and risen.
In other words, if the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator is touched and rises while creating a box section of the HA-High indicator, a pull back pattern will be created and an upward price adjustment will be experienced.
-
If not, and it falls below the MS-Signal indicator, there is a possibility that it will touch around 79.9K-80.9K.
This section was explained yesterday with the 1W chart.
Therefore, you can see how important the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator area is.
-
The next volatility period is around December 3rd.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, it is expected that prices below 44K-48K will not be seen in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to this.
If the ATH is renewed, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as support and resistance.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to generate Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous to use it for trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
BTCUSD Daily Inflection Point
This is a continuation of the Weekly Inflection Point.
On the daily we're getting close to a crucial area. A downward move here may indicate a large move, correction on the weekly, daily. 16k could easily be hit. There is also the potential for this momentum consolidation to have a breakout leg to 77-88k before a final correction.
Watch for a break above or below the keltner channel. If the stock market is about to tank because WW3, the debt bubble created in 2008-2020, then Bitcoin will get shocked with it while everyone scrambles for PM's.
After maybe bitcoin will be revived when people realize there isn't enough PM's out there, else some world wide digital currency emerges.
Either way I have little hope for bitcoin, unless the NWO backs it because of the transparent transactions that can be traced, blacklisted, non fungible- control. Such a currency is a fools hope and will be used against you when tyranny seeks control over you.
BTC/USDT - Rising Wedge Breakout - H4 ChartThe BTC/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Rising Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days. BINANCE:BTCUSD
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 93,400
Target Levels:
1st Support – 84,600
2nd Support - 78,210
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
DOGE/USDT - Rising Wedge Breakout - H4 ChartThe DOGE/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Rising Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 0.3910
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.3188
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
[BTC/USD: Long-Term Outlook]Current Situation:
Bitcoin's current price is approximately 94,862 USD, with a 3.21% drop.
On the weekly time frame, there is a strong upward trend where the price has climbed from lower levels to a new high above 90,000 USD.
The last correction stalled in the 65,000–70,000 USD zone (highlighted in red on the chart), confirming this as a strong support area.
Key Technical Confirmations:
Support Zone (Buy Zone):
The price rallied from the 65,000–70,000 USD area. This zone is significant as it was a prior accumulation area that led to the breakout to higher levels.
Liquidity within the support zone ("$$$") has already been filled, signaling strong buyer interest.
Bullish Structure (Higher Highs & Higher Lows):
The chart shows a clear formation of higher highs and higher lows, confirming the long-term bullish trend.
Imbalance and Strong Volume:
A large green candle with significant momentum suggests a strong bullish move. The volume during this rally was the highest in the past year, further reinforcing the trend.
Psychological Level – 100,000 USD:
The 100,000 USD level is an important psychological barrier, likely acting as a magnet for buyers and sellers. This remains a reachable long-term target.
Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price stays above the 65,000–70,000 USD support zone, further upward movement is expected.
The first target is 100,000 USD (psychological level), with potential to break higher toward 110,000 USD or beyond if volume increases.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price falls below 65,000 USD and breaks the structure, a deeper correction toward 50,000 USD (liquidity zone marked "$$$") may occur.
My Long-Term Projection:
Given the current technical picture and strong bullish trend, my bias is bullish. I expect BTC/USD to reach 100,000 USD in the coming months and potentially test the 110,000 USD zone or higher, assuming the bullish structure remains intact.
Trade Plan:
Entry (Buy): On a retest of the 70,000–75,000 USD zone, if the price revisits this support.
Stop Loss: Below 65,000 USD (under the previous support zone).
Targets (Take Profit):
TP1: 100,000 USD
TP2: 110,000 USD
Disclaimer:
This is solely a personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Please use your own analysis and manage your risk appropriately.
#BTC 1D: Correction Phase – Key Buy Levels Marked!The correction I previously warned about has occurred.
After a strong rally, the asset's price has stabilized and is now fluctuating within a narrow range (sideways movement), which is a natural correction phase.
Most of the trading volume for #BTC is concentrated around $89,216, a key support level where buyers may step in to sustain the price.
In the short term, I expect the price to continue moving sideways, with potential bounces or reactions primarily around $89,216—a critical support level.
For those trading on the spot (or futures?) market, I suggest considering buying or averaging positions at $89,200, $85,304, and $81,216.
DYOR.
BTCUSD rejected before $100k. Don't panicAt the start of this month, BTCUSD was sitting below $70k. Look where we are now.
Lets see if BTCUSD will hold this 1H candle trendline. If we break below, we'll observe whether the top level of support from the last 2 weeks holds.
If we don't succeed in holding the orange level, we can see BTCUSD come back down to 86k-93k and accumulate some more before coming back up to break 100k.
& believe me when I say it, we are going to break 100k and more.
$100K+ Nov25 BTCUSDProjection for November 2025
Based on technical analysis and considering the current bullish trend, we project that the Bitcoin price could reach and surpass $100K by November 2025. However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and can be affected by various external factors.
BITCOIN | MACRO OUTLOOK | Top is IN | ALTCOINS SHINEI've been risking my opinion for the better part of a year, saying that the ATH is stilllll coming. Now, it's time for me to choose my trades again; and I'm choosing to take my profits here.
Here's a replay of an entire year's worth of BTC updates, incase you want to verify😉:
The next thing I'm looking at is the continuation of Altseason , because the TOTAL3 chart peaks AFTER the BTC high. I touched a little bit on this mechanic here; but I think I'll do another update on that in coming days.
After alts top-out, for BTC bounce zones I'll consider the moving averages, Elliot wave corrective theory, and previous resistance zones as new bounce zones. But this is near term, not short term.
Stay tuned!! Cheers to the believers 🥂
________________
COINBASE:BTCUSD
BTC Huge Gap!!! We going back to 75k?Hey guys!
Congrats all with BTC ATH and recent profits, I was not commenting the situation, because it was pretty clear, and we all know what was happening.
But also, as we know, even in the bull cycle have to be corrections and consolidations.
So here at the futures chart, we can see a huge gap around the healthy correction possible zone (max to 30%). Also, we have RSI oversold for sure and descending volumes.
Plus, in December there were no promises about decreasing US Interest rate, so possibly December can end up in this correction phase.
What's your thoughts about when and how much we could go? Let's chat in the comments =)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-25-24 - Carryover TrendToday's pattern is a Carryover in Trend mode. Obviously, this is a holiday week, and because of low liquidity, I expect to see moderately wild price volatility.
Stay cautious, as price moves could be exaggerated this week.
Gold and Silver are still attempting to break higher and trading in a consolidated sideways price channel.
BTCUSD pauses into the holiday week.
This would be a good week to pause, read a good book, and avoid the risks in the global markets.
This shortened trading week will likely result in very wild price swings.
Stay cautious.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold