BITCOIN is exactly where it's supposed to be.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is under heavy pressure lately due to the trade tariffs but as long-term investors, we shouldn't let this volatility affect us.
The MVRV has been one of the most consistent cyclical Top (sell high) and Bottom (buy low) indicators giving only a maximum of two optimal signals in each Cycle and it shows that the market is nowhere near a Top.
On the contrary the MVRV has spend the first 3 months of the year correcting from the 0.382 Fibonacci level to the 0.236. This is the exact same score it had i March 2017. Even in the other two Cycles that wasn't this low on Fibonacci levels, it still made a correction, flashing a red signal.
As the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) continues to support, there are far more greater probabilities that the market will recover, turning the recent trade volatility into the best buy opportunity of 2025.
As far as a Cycle Top is concerned, it has always been an excellent exit signal when the MVRV hit the 0.786 Fib.
So do you think that will be the case? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Rectangle Pattern Breakdown – Bearish Move1. Overview of the Chart & Market Context
The chart provided represents Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, published on TradingView. This analysis highlights the rectangle pattern formation, key support and resistance levels, and a potential short trade setup with defined risk management.
The market structure suggests a bearish outlook, as Bitcoin attempted to break above a resistance level but failed, leading to a sharp decline. The price action now indicates further downside movement, aligning with a rectangle pattern breakdown.
2. Rectangle Pattern Formation
What is a Rectangle Pattern?
A rectangle pattern is a consolidation phase where price moves sideways within a defined range, forming multiple touches at resistance and support before a breakout occurs. It can serve as a continuation or reversal pattern, depending on the breakout direction.
In this case, the pattern has resulted in a bearish breakout, indicating that sellers have taken control of the market.
Key Characteristics of This Rectangle Pattern:
The upper boundary (resistance) is at 88,333 USD, where price repeatedly failed to break higher.
The lower boundary (support) is at 78,044 USD, which acted as a strong floor but is now under pressure.
The price moved within this range for an extended period, showing a balanced battle between buyers and sellers.
A failed breakout at resistance, followed by a sharp rejection, signals a bearish reversal.
3. Breakdown of Key Levels & Market Structure
A. Resistance Level – 88,333 USD
This level has been tested multiple times, but price failed to hold above it.
The recent failed breakout led to a strong bearish rejection, confirming resistance.
The price action formed a bearish engulfing candlestick, adding to the bearish bias.
B. Support Level – 78,044 USD
This zone has previously provided multiple bounces, showing strong buying interest.
However, with the recent break below this level, it may now act as resistance.
If the price retests this area and fails to break above, it confirms a bearish continuation.
C. Price Rejection and Market Structure Shift
The formation of lower highs and lower lows signals a transition from consolidation to a downtrend.
The price broke out of the rectangle pattern to the downside, confirming a bearish breakout.
If the support at 78,044 USD fails, the price may continue dropping toward 73,678 USD.
4. Trade Setup & Execution Plan
🔹 Entry Strategy
A short position is initiated after the bearish rejection at resistance (88,333 USD).
The breakdown of the rectangle pattern strengthens the short setup.
The price may briefly retest the broken support (78,044 USD) before continuing downward.
🔹 Stop-Loss Placement
The stop-loss (SL) is placed above 88,333 USD, ensuring that if price moves against the trade, risk is minimized.
This protects against any unexpected bullish reversal.
🔹 Profit Targets (Take Profit - TP)
TP1: 78,044 USD (previous support level) – A conservative target.
TP2: 73,678 USD (deeper support) – If bearish momentum continues, this is the extended target.
Trade Component Details
Entry Short after rejection at 88,333 USD
Stop-Loss (SL) Above 88,333 USD
Take Profit 1 (TP1) 78,044 USD
Take Profit 2 (TP2) 73,678 USD
Confirmation Breakout & retest of support
Risk-Reward Ratio Favorable (defined SL & TP)
5. Expected Price Action and Market Behavior
🔻 Bearish Scenario (Most Likely Outcome)
The price will continue to fall towards TP1 (78,044 USD) due to selling pressure.
If 78,044 USD fails to hold, Bitcoin is likely to test the next major support level (73,678 USD).
The structure of lower highs and lower lows supports the downtrend.
🔺 Bullish Scenario (Invalidation of the Short Setup)
If Bitcoin breaks above 88,333 USD, the bearish outlook is invalidated.
This could signal a potential trend reversal or bullish breakout.
6. Technical Indicators Supporting the Analysis
Several technical indicators can be used to confirm the bearish outlook:
📉 RSI (Relative Strength Index):
If RSI is below 50, it confirms bearish momentum.
If RSI is oversold (<30), a temporary bounce may occur.
📉 Moving Averages:
If the 50-period MA crosses below the 200-period MA, it confirms a bearish trend.
If price is below both MAs, it strengthens the bearish setup.
📉 Volume Analysis:
A high selling volume during the breakdown indicates strong bearish conviction.
If volume spikes near support levels, a potential bounce could happen.
7. Summary of Key Findings
Pattern Identified: Rectangle pattern with a bearish breakout.
Market Structure: Price formed lower highs and lower lows, signaling a downtrend.
Trade Setup:
Short trade after rejection at 88,333 USD.
Stop-loss above 88,333 USD to manage risk.
Profit targets at 78,044 USD (TP1) and 73,678 USD (TP2).
Risk Management:
Clear stop-loss and take-profit levels ensure a controlled risk-to-reward ratio.
If price moves against the trade, the stop-loss prevents excessive losses.
Technical Indicators:
RSI, Moving Averages, and Volume Analysis confirm the bearish outlook.
8. Final Thoughts & Trading Plan Implementation
This analysis presents a high-probability bearish trade setup using the rectangle pattern breakdown strategy. With proper risk management, traders can execute this short trade with a structured plan.
🔹 Actionable Trading Plan:
Wait for price confirmation – If BTC retests the broken support (78,044 USD) and rejects, this strengthens the trade idea.
Execute the short trade – Once confirmation occurs, enter a short position.
Manage risk appropriately – Stick to the stop-loss above 88,333 USD.
Monitor price action – Adjust take-profit levels based on momentum and support breaks.
If the price invalidates the setup by breaking above resistance, it is crucial to exit the trade and re-evaluate the market conditions.
Conclusion:
This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rectangle pattern breakdown analysis provides a clear bearish trade setup, supported by market structure, technical indicators, and price action. The well-defined entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels ensure a structured risk-reward ratio, making this a viable short trade opportunity.
Falling towards pullback support?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 81,250.81
1st support: 78,517.93
1st Resistance: 86,600.97
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BTCUSD: Ready to Soar or Collapse?Hi Traders ! Possible Entries in BTCUSD (1H):
✅ Buy: If the price bounces off the lower line of the smaller ascending channel and breaks above 85,000 with volume. Additional confirmation if the RSI recovers above 60.
❌ Sell: If the price breaks down the smaller ascending channel, especially if it falls below 84,800. Extra confirmation if the RSI crosses below 50.
📢 Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Manage your risk properly.
BTC update 28.03.2025The zone of interest I have outlined, when internal liquidity is achieved. In the same zone we have horizontal volumes.
So I'm waiting for a reaction from this zone
We are still continuing to form the bottom of the correction.
The next 4 days will be a struggle to close the monthly candle, it should close green.
Bets Regards, EXCAVO
BTCUSD: We are nowhere near the top.Bitcoin has turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.405, MACD = -937.300, ADX = 31.574) and should turn bullish once it crosses above its 1D MA50, which is now a 2 month Resistance. This simple illustration of cyclical tops and bottoms shows that the market is nowhere near a top and we will not consider selling until we enter October (2025).
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BTC already has the conditions to hit the 90000-95000 zone!A few days ago, I mentioned that BTC had the potential to surge towards the 90000-95000 range. Currently, BTC has already climbed above 87000 during its rebound, effectively opening the door to the 90000-95000 zone.
From a fundamental perspective, with bearish factors becoming clearer, if Trump adopts a more lenient stance on tariffs, BTC could extend its rebound. On the technical side, BTC has successfully broken through the short-term resistance around the 85500 level, turning the 85500-84500 area into a short-term support structure. This transition further supports BTC’s continuation to the upside, potentially testing the 90000-95000 range.
For short-term trading, we can consider waiting for a technical pullback and looking to go long on BTC once it retraces to the 85500-85000 region. The trading strategy verification accuracy rate is more than 90%; one step ahead, exclusive access to trading strategies and real-time trading settings
BTC ANALYSIS (4H)If we look at Bitcoin on hourly timeframes, we expect a rejection from the red zone. However, this rejection must be strong because if it is weak, Bitcoin may not be inclined to correct further or might at least enter a choppy corrective trend.
The substructure is also bearish, a trigger line has been lost, and ultimately, we have a bearish iCH on the chart.
Closing a 4-hour candle above the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Can it hit 89,000 again?The price trend of BTC has once again become the focus of global investors' attention.
Previously, BTC experienced a period of consolidation, during which the bulls and bears engaged in repeated games. Now, the bulls of BTC have risen strongly, unleashing powerful upward momentum.
With a swift and fierce move, it has broken through the key resistance level of 85,000 at one stroke. This breakthrough is like a fuse igniting the market, and the upward trend has spread rapidly. It is expected that it will further challenge the range of 87,000-89,000 in the future.
The market has been extremely volatile lately. If you can't figure out the market's direction, you'll only be a cash dispenser for others. If you also want to succeed,Follow the link below to get my daily strategy updates
Bitcoin- Short term recovery?As you know, I am bearish on Bitcoin in the long term. However, in the short term, the cryptocurrency could see a recovery.
Yesterday, the price tested the 81,000 support zone once again and rebounded from that level. Now, Bitcoin is pushing against the 83,500 resistance, and I believe a breakout is likely.
If that happens, we could see further gains, with 86,500 as the next key target for the bulls.
In conclusion, I’m bullish on BTC in the coming days and will be looking to buy dips.
Using The CRADLE Pattern To Time/Execute TradesThis simple video highlights one of my newest pattern definitions - the Cradle Pattern.
In addition to the many other patterns my technology identified, this Cradle Pattern seems to be a constant type of price construct.
I'm sharing it with all of you so you can learn how to identify it and use it for your trading.
Ideally, this pattern represents FLAGGING after a trend phase.
It is a consolidation of price within a flag after a broad trending phase.
It usually resolves in the direction of the major trend, but can present a very solid reversal trigger if the upper/lower pullback range is broken (see the examples in this video).
Learn it. Use it.
Price is the ultimate indicator.
Learn to read price data more efficiently to become a better trader.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BTC/USD Bullish Breakout from Rectangle PatternOverview:
The chart represents Bitcoin's price action against the US Dollar on the 1-hour timeframe, highlighting a Rectangle Pattern Breakout with a well-structured trade setup. This analysis will break down the pattern, key levels, and possible trading scenarios.
1️⃣ Chart Pattern Breakdown – Rectangle Consolidation
The price has been moving within a rectangle pattern (range-bound movement), where Bitcoin found support at lower levels and faced resistance at the upper boundary.
Rectangle Pattern: A continuation/consolidation pattern where price fluctuates between horizontal resistance and support before breaking out.
Curve Formation: The price action within the rectangle also forms a rounding bottom, indicating a potential shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.
Breakout Confirmation: BTC has broken out from the rectangle, suggesting bullish momentum.
2️⃣ Key Technical Levels
🔹 Support Level ($84,110)
This zone has acted as a strong demand area, preventing the price from falling further.
Buyers consistently stepped in at this level, making it a significant psychological floor for Bitcoin.
🔹 Resistance Level ($86,850 - $87,000 Zone)
This level had previously rejected upward movements, leading to multiple price pullbacks.
After the breakout, this area is expected to act as a new support level upon a retest.
🔹 Target Price ($89,931 – Next Resistance Zone)
If the breakout sustains, the next key target for bulls is around $89,931, based on prior resistance zones and technical projections.
🔹 Stop Loss ($84,110 – Below Support Zone)
A stop loss below the support zone ensures risk management in case of a false breakout.
3️⃣ Trading Strategy & Execution
📌 Entry Point – After price confirms the breakout above the rectangle’s resistance. Traders should wait for:
A pullback and retest of the broken resistance, which should now act as support.
A strong bullish candle confirming continuation.
📌 Take Profit (TP) – $89,931, based on historical resistance levels and price projection from the rectangle range.
📌 Stop Loss (SL) – Placed at $84,110, below the rectangle’s previous support zone to minimize downside risk.
📌 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) – The setup offers a favorable RRR, meaning potential profits outweigh the risks.
4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Additional Factors
✔ Bullish Outlook – The breakout signals strong buying interest and potential upside continuation.
✔ Volume Confirmation – Traders should monitor volume spikes during the breakout to confirm institutional participation.
✔ Economic Events & News – External factors like macroeconomic data or Bitcoin-related news can impact price action.
Conclusion – BTC/USD Trading Setup
Pattern Identified: Rectangle Pattern Breakout
Current Trend: Bullish breakout from consolidation
Trade Type: Long position (Buy setup)
Key Levels:
✅ Support: $84,110
✅ Resistance: $86,850 - $87,000
✅ Target: $89,931
✅ Stop Loss: $84,110
🔥 Final Thought : Bitcoin has broken out of a key consolidation range, signaling a bullish move towards $89,931. Traders should wait for confirmation and manage risk accordingly! 🚀📈
BTC New Update (4H)This analysis is an update to the analysis you can see below in the "Related Analyses" section.
The price did not reach the Supply zone from our previous analysis. Instead, it formed a reversal pivot upon hitting a Supply.
Given that the larger structure is also bearish, we can look for sell/short positions in the Supply zone.
A daily candle closing above the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting
Comment if you have any questions
thank you
Bitcoin Analysis: Potential Path to $150K and Market TrendsCurrent Price & Key Levels
- BTC/USDT Price: BINANCE:BTCUSDT (as per chart).
- Critical Support: Bottom of the ascending channel .
- Key Resistance: Upper trendline of the channel (to be confirmed).
Technical Signals
1. Ascending Channel:
- Price is at the bottom of the channel, historically a bounce zone.
- A break above the upper trendline could signal a bullish continuation.
2. Moving Averages:
- SMA 200 (4H) and SMA 20 (1D) are critical for trend confirmation.
- A bullish crossover (e.g., SMA 20 > SMA 200) would strengthen the buy signal.
3. Dominance (BTC.D):
- If Bitcoin dominance turns bearish, expect capital rotation into altcoins (altseason potential).
- Monitor dominance alongside price action for market shifts.
$150K Target: When and How?
- Scenario 1:
- A strong breakout from the ascending channel + rising volume → Acceleration toward $150K.
- Timeline:Mid-2025/Late-2025 (historically aligns with post-halving cycles).
- Scenario 2:
- Slow grind upward with corrections → $150K likely by 2026, pending macroeconomic stability (e.g., ETF inflows, regulatory clarity).
Altcoin Season Watch
- Trigger:
- If Bitcoin’s dominance drops below 57%, altcoins may surge.
- Focus on high-cap alts (ETH, SOL) and narratives like AI, DePIN, or RWA.
Trade Strategy
- Entry:
- Buy on confirmed breakout above the channel + SMA crossover.
- Stop Loss:
- Below the channel’s lower trendline (e.g., $80,000).
- Take Profit:
- targets: $100,000.120,000
- Final target: $150,000 (scale out profits).
Risks to Monitor
- Macro Factors: Fed rate decisions, geopolitical tensions.
- Bitcoin ETF Flows: Sustained inflows/outflows impact momentum.
- Regulation: Crackdowns or approvals (e.g., ETH ETF).
---
Conclusion
- Bullish Outlook: $150K is achievable if Bitcoin holds the ascending channel and dominance remains stable.
- Altseason Hedge: Prepare a basket of altcoins if BTC.D trends downward.
Like, comment, and follow for updates! 🚀
Bitcoin - What's Next?We have seen a major 3 Wave (Minor Wave I, II, III) Bullish completion on Bitcoin. What do you think the next move is? For those who understand the BASICS of the Elliott Wave Theory, will easily know what is happening next. I have explained for free plenty of times in this channel, how many waves are in a full bullish or bearish cycle🔥
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update Update For 4-2 : ConsolidationThis quick update shows why I believe the SPY/QQQ will struggle to make any big move as long as we stay within the 382-618 "Battle Zone".
The SPY continues to rally up into this zone and stall out. If the SPY stays within this zone, I believe the markets will simply roll around in a tight range and go nowhere today.
Thus, I published this article to warn traders not to expect any big trends until we breakout - away from this Fibonacci "Battle Zone".
You can't kick the markets to make it go anywhere. And, unless you are trading very short-term swings in price - you are probably better off sitting on the sidelines waiting for a broad market trend to establish.
This is a warning. As long as we stay in the Fibonacci "Battle Zone", price will struggle to build any major trend.
So, play your trades accordingly - or just take a break from trading while you wait for the markets to roll out of the "Battle Zone".
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BTC Major Breakout - Symmetrical TriangleBTC is currently trading in a symmetrical triangle. This pattern is indecisive and has a 50/50 chance of breaking to the upside or downside. Meaning in the coming days or weeks, BTC will have a major breakout.
My guess would be to the downside but honestly, the direction wont be clear until it actually breaks out.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-2 : GAP Reversal Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests price may attempt to move downward in early trading, trying to find support near recent lows, then potentially roll a bit higher.
I do expect price to move into a downward price trend - attempting to break below the 549 price level and targeting the 535-545 target Fib level this week.
Today, Thursday, and Friday are all GAP/Breakaway types of patterns. So we should be entering an expansion of price trend and I believe that trend will be to the downside.
Gold and Silver are nearing a Flag Apex level. Very exciting for a potential breakout rally driving Gold up above $3250 and Silver up above $36.
I personally believe there is nothing stopping Gold and Silver in this rally phase until Gold reaches levels above $4500. GET SOME.
BTCUSD had a very interesting spike low. I still believe BTCUSD will roll downward - targeting the $76-78k level, then break downward towards the $60k level. Time will tell.
The rest of this week should be very exciting with the Breakaway and GAP patterns.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BTC-----More around 83300, target 85000 areaTechnical analysis of BTC contract on April 2: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small positive line yesterday, and the K-line pattern was a single positive line with continuous negatives. The price was at a low level, and the attached indicator was a golden cross with a shrinking volume. In the big trend, the decline was very obvious, and the pullback was difficult to continue. The probability of breaking the previous high point was even smaller. Instead, it was easy to fall under pressure and break the low. This is the trend law, not speculation; the four-hour chart showed a pullback trend for two consecutive trading days. The K-line rose and fell after a continuous positive yesterday. The current K-line pattern was a continuous negative. From the technical indicators, the current correction will enter the second stage of the downward trend. The short-cycle hourly chart yesterday's US market rose to a high in the early morning and continued to fall in the morning. The current K-line pattern was a continuous negative, and the attached indicator was a dead cross. Then there is a high probability of falling during the day, depending on the strength and the breakout of the European market.
Today's BTC short-term contract trading strategy: Sell at the 85,000 area of the pullback, stop loss at the 85,500 area, and target the 84,000-83,500 area;
Tariff Tensions, Dollar Dips & Gold’s Record Rally!"As of April 2, 2025, the financial markets have been significantly influenced by recent economic data releases and geopolitical developments, particularly concerning the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), gold (XAU/USD), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD).
1. Key Economic Data Reports and Their Impact:
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The DXY has experienced fluctuations due to recent economic indicators and policy announcements. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported softer figures, indicating a slight cooling in the labor market. Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released data reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing activity. These reports have contributed to a marginal decline in the DXY, which decreased by 0.02% to 104.2418 on April 2 .Financial TimesTrading Economics
Gold (XAU/USD): Gold prices have surged to record highs, nearing $3,150 per ounce. This increase is largely driven by investor concerns over potential economic slowdowns and uncertainties surrounding impending tariff announcements by President Trump . The anticipation of these tariffs has led investors to seek safe-haven assets, bolstering demand for gold.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, trading above $84,000 with a nearly 2% gain in the past 24 hours . This rebound follows weeks of price weakness and is occurring amid the backdrop of upcoming tariff announcements, which have introduced volatility into the cryptocurrency markets.
2. Implications of the Data Reports:
Labor Market and Manufacturing Data: The softer JOLTS figures and the ISM manufacturing slowdown suggest a potential deceleration in economic growth. These indicators may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting interest rates and, consequently, the strength of the U.S. dollar.The Guardian+3EWF Pro+3KuCoin+3
Tariff Announcements: The anticipation of new tariffs has heightened market uncertainty. Investors are closely monitoring these developments, as they could have significant implications for international trade relations and economic stability. Such uncertainties often lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and can introduce volatility into both traditional and digital asset markets.
3. Major Contributors to Recent Market Movements:
Tariff Uncertainty: President Trump's impending announcement of new tariffs has been a primary driver of recent market volatility. The potential for widespread tariffs has led to concerns about a global economic slowdown, prompting shifts in investor sentiment .
Investor Sentiment and Safe-Haven Demand: The uncertainty surrounding trade policies has led investors to seek refuge in assets perceived as safe havens, such as gold. This shift has contributed to the significant rise in gold prices.
Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics: While Bitcoin has faced headwinds from global trade tensions, it has also shown resilience. Analysts suggest that traders may be overstating the impact of the U.S.-led tariff war on Bitcoin's price, indicating that other factors, such as market sentiment and technological developments, also play crucial roles .
In summary, the recent economic data releases and the anticipation of new tariffs have collectively influenced the DXY, gold, and Bitcoin markets. Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely, as they have the potential to significantly impact market dynamics in the near term.