BTC at major Resistance Zone? Will it drop to 102,100 $?COINBASE:BTCUSD is trading in a robust resistance zone that aligns with prior price rejections and key supply levels. This area has in the past attracted strong selling interest, making it a critical point to watch.
If bearish confirmation appears, such as strong upper wicks or bearish candlestick patterns, I anticipate a move toward 102,100. Conversely, a break above this level could signal further upside and invalidate the bearish setup.
Traders should carefully evaluate price action at this zone before entering positions. Do you see this playing out similarly?
Let’s discuss in the comments below!
1-BTCUSD
Bitcoin: 105K Greater Chance Of Retrace.Bitcoin briefly tested 90K only to show a sharp reversal which has lead to a run into the 105K area resistance. IF momentum continues, 108K can be tested, but IF a bearish reversal appears, a test of 100K is also possible. The key is looking for confirmations on smaller time frames in order to get a better sense of what the market wants to do, not what you think it will do. There is also an important lesson here about chart patterns.
First let's address the wave count. My chart shows a "5?" which is potentially the completion of a very broad (monthly) Wave 3. The reason there is a "?" is because in order to confirm, the market needs to do something like clear a major support like 90K. While 89K was actually tested, the swift rejection means 90K is still intact and still the major support area to watch for. This also means the current wave structure going back to the 108K high may still be a Wave 4 and a bullish Wave 5 maybe be developing. 108K will have to be cleared in order to confirm. If this scenario plays out, 113K is the next resistance and profit objective area.
The arrow on the chart points to the 105K AREA resistance. From such a level, I anticipate a brief retrace at least (see illustration) over the coming week which can take price back to 100K. Best way to utilize this information is avoid new longs, look to lock in profits, and/or look for trade ideas on smaller time frames. At the moment there are no bearish signs at all so selling in front of such strong momentum is just as risky as buying and expecting a test of 108K.
The other key lesson here is the head and shoulders pattern. I specifically mentioned this in my previous article. These patterns can appear randomly just like anything else. Jumping to a conclusion upon seeing a such a pattern is what gets you caught on the wrong side of the market when you have moves like the one that is in progress now. Best way to avoid this bias is to always keep an open mind and do NOT think in absolutes. The head and shoulders in this case was totally meaningless. The confirmation would have been a decisive break of 90K, NOT a brief break, followed by a bullish pin bar.
Watch price levels and price structure and let the market choose, our job is to adjust to the market and measure the ever evolving risk. At resistance levels like price is at now, I believe probability favors a retrace. I can be wrong, but if the risk on both sides is high, its better to be wrong and out, than wrong and in.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Need to check the movement of StochRSI and BW(100)
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The StochRSI indicator is showing a change in slope in the overbought zone.
However, due to this rise, the StochRSI indicator may touch the 100 point.
Accordingly, the StochRSI indicator will soon turn downward.
Therefore, when the StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend, the key is whether it can be supported around 101947.24-106133.74.
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As the BW auxiliary indicator touches the 50 point, the BW(100) indicator is about to be newly created.
Accordingly, the direction in which the newly created BW(100) indicator is created based on the current BW(100) indicator point of 106133.74 is the point of observation.
Since the BW auxiliary indicator must fall from the 100 point in order for the BW(100) indicator to be created, the price will fall when the BW(100) indicator is created.
The BW(100) indicator has currently been on an upward trend.
This time, the point of observation is whether the BW(100) indicator can be created above 106133.74.
The BW(100) indicator and the BW(0) indicator are paired indicators.
Since the BW(100) indicator fell as it was created, the BW(0) indicator was created, so it can be seen that the wave has been initialized.
This time, since the BW(0) indicator is rising as it is being created, if the BW(100) indicator is newly created this time, the wave will be initialized.
This wave refers to the box section that moves in the BW(0) ~ BW(100) section.
The actual wave or trend starts when it deviates from the BW(0) ~ BW(100) section.
The HA-Low and HA-High indicators can also be interpreted as BW(0), BW(100).
However, the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are more likely to show wider movements than the BW(0), BW(100) indicators, so they are more advantageous in creating trading strategies.
In that sense, the BW(0) and BW(100) indicators can be said to be indicators that can be responded to in detail in trading strategies.
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The high point boundary section was formed as the HA-High and BW(100) indicators were created.
Accordingly, it will enter the high point section only when it rises above the 101947.24-106.133.74 section.
If so, the possibility of starting a new upward wave increases.
On the other hand, when the HA-Low indicator and BW(0) indicator are generated, a low point boundary section is formed.
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Not all indicators move at all times according to the interpretation method.
However, it can only help you find a basis for buying or selling when conducting actual transactions.
The movement of these indicators can be said to be like finding a lighthouse in the vast sea of trading.
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The next volatility period is between January 23rd and 30th.
We need to look at how BTC moves as it passes through this volatility period.
As explained above, since the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought section, it is important to see whether the STochRSI indicator shows a downward trend as it passes through this volatility period.
The MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D chart) indicator is rising to around 97461.86.
Accordingly, in order to maintain a short-term uptrend, the price should be maintained above the MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D chart) indicator.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an uptrend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
How to view and respond to this is up to you.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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How Bitcoin’s Recent Golden Cross Could Impact Your Crypto Bitcoin has been performing strongly on the charts since hitting a low of GETTEX:89K a week ago. The cryptocurrency’s value has risen to over $105,000 at the time of writing, marking an increase of over 11% in just a week. The recent gains have sparked optimism within the crypto community, with some speculating about a potential short-term rally.
According to Burak Kesmeci from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s 1-7 day UTXO average has crossed above the 7-30 day UTXO average. This crossover signifies that the average cost basis for Bitcoin acquired over the past week is rising, despite recent price hikes. This positive signal indicates that the ongoing price upswing is backed by fresh capital inflows.
Bitcoin on 'Pause' for brief moment!Seems like Bitcoin is making its moves in bullish fashion and is now exiting from the pause phase . Let me break down those phases for you: Consolidation, Bull, Pause, Bull...
On the chart, I’ve highlighted these phases:
Consolidation Phase: This is represented by a channel pattern , where the price moves within a defined range.
Bull Phase: This is the parabolic movement , showing strong upward momentum.
Pause Phase: This takes the shape of a triangle , signaling a temporary slowdown before the next move.
What’s fascinating is that all these patterns — channel, parabolic, and triangle shapes —have unfolded during the 2023–2024 bull run . Together, they form a rising channel , reinforcing the broader bullish structure.
Let’s see where Bitcoin heads next! 🚀
Ready for Altseason?? Hi fellow traders, BTC.D will be ready to make a wave lower from the blue box after it completes the ABC correction. When the dominance of BTC starts to decline the Altcoins will rise. The BTC.D chart could potentially go up till the green fib line within the blue box. I think this will be a good time to position yourself. Target will be the previous bottom. Good luck and trade safe!
BTC to 115K! or is TRUMP please let it go up!GADEEEE! Baited youu! Come here
So previously on the journey of btc episode the recap is below
Press the play button please.
Now btc likely made a pennant and it would eat that pennant, retesting 106k and again falling, but eventually, i have marked 4 boxes and a yellow line, the yellow line on top is Defense of (Defense of the TRAILBLAZERS) and likely before testing he would dance the range from 101k to 104k before any breakouts,
The red line is just in case for any news xD
101k point of defence! And out for another long time! Alts hold on!
Us in the past 2 years!real!
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Bitcoin entering ATH zone and here is whyThe one thing that has stunned me about Bitcoin is how the Traders Psychology remains consistent. Over periods of Time, while Bitcoin was well known or not, it repeats cycles like Clockwork.
This is one of the things thats makes it so attractive.
So, what makes me say this ?
The main Chart has 2 components. The number of days PA takes from Low to ATH.
We also have the number of days between where the 50 SMA ( red) is above or below PA in those cycles.
The image above clearly shows the continuity.
the Blue lables show Low ro ATH and back. First peak is 2013
At first, the only repeat there is the time from ATH 2017 to low, near the same in 2021
We also have the 2 ATH in 2021 and the time from the Low before hand, to the 1st ATH in March 2021 is the same number of days as in 2013 to Low. ( not shown )
Next we look at the 50 SMA - Again, that double top in 2021 has amazing coincidences .
2013 - 50 SMA took 693 days to go back under PA
2021 1st ATH took 686 days to go back under
2017 took 462 days to back under
2021 2nd ATH took 462 to go back under !
BOTH those ATH's in 2021 reference previous ATH
The same happens for the days under to ATH, but not shown to keep the chart clear,
As a result of this, I have projected the number of days to possible ATH dates and we are near the First zone. But to reach an ATH in March would require a truly historic rise.
And if we continue to follow the Top trend line as a line of ATH, we are to expect High Figures on the final ATH of this cycle, though I feel this is optimistic
One of the reason I am feeling VERY Cautious about a March ATH on that line is the MACD
It is WAY up high and it does not range on a weekly. OverBought is where BTC is right now. It took 6 months for MACD Weekly to cool off last time....
Though lower time frames are low and will offer support. But to push up rapidly to a real ATH line will be unreal if it happen. We wait to see
B
But one thing that does offer some Scope for more is the MVRV Z Score
The orange line is the line where we see BTC getting overheated and en-route to ATH and we have not crossed it once yet this cycle.
As you can see, the MVRV is in a Descending trend though. Do we Still need to cross that orange line ? "nd ATH in 2021 was below.
MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, is a technical indicator used in the cryptocurrency market to evaluate whether a token is overvalued or undervalued.
Technically, it seems it is getting harder to get BTC to be OverValued....because of its high price now. ?
Historical data on MVRV maybe becoming outdated ?
So, in conclusion, Technically, Bitcoin has room to move if it continues to follow historical patterns.
But in reality, right now, it is overbought in a real world situation, running out of steam but all it needs is a breather and it will run again....as shown on the MVRV Zscore.
Notice how, when the Z Score ( yellow) is above the MVRV ( Green) that is bullish
For me, I would LOVE to see BTC pul back for a while, Cool down, Lets the ALTS Run hard for a bit and then, BTC wakes up again and off we go
A Pull back is Expected ona number of charts
Will that happen ?
Time will tell