SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-20 : GAP PotentialToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will present an opening price gap (in this case lower) and likely attempt to find support near these deep lows.
I really want to point out how my Anomaly call, nearly 45+ days ago, really played out perfectly.
It is so difficult for me to try to explain what I do with my research and analysis - but ultimately I simply call what I see based on the data.
The last few days have prompted me to really push my efforts to continue to deliver superior research and analysis for my followers and subscribers.
Ultimately, it is about helping people learn to become more profitable and learn to wait for the best trade setups.
Gold & Silver are moving into a CRUSH pattern today. This could be a BIG MOVE for metals - and I believe the move will be to the upside. Don't get married to this move yet. The bottom is still setting up for metals.
Bitcoin is collapsing through the EPP pattern. The ultimate low setup could still be a move below $90k, so be prepared for more downward trending throughout the end of 2024.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
1-BTCUSD
BTC/USDT Analysis: Is a Key Reversal Brewing?Bitcoin's price action continues to intrigue traders as it consolidates within an ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe. The recent rejection from the channel's upper boundary at $108,000 indicates that bearish pressure might dominate the short term. Currently, BTC trades around $101,450, testing a critical support level near $102,000.
Key Observations:
Ascending Channel in Play: The structure highlights an upward trend, with BTC respecting both the upper and lower boundaries of the channel. The dotted midline has acted as a dynamic pivot, influencing price movement over recent weeks.
Bearish Breakdown Potential: A clear break below $102,000 could lead BTC toward the next significant horizontal support at $98,236. This level aligns closely with the channel's lower boundary, making it a crucial zone for bulls to defend.
Key Resistance Zone: If bulls manage to reclaim $103,000, BTC could retest the midline or even the $106,000 level. However, failure to sustain above the $102,000 support could accelerate a bearish trend.
RSI Divergence: Hidden bearish divergence on the RSI suggests weakening bullish momentum, supporting the case for a deeper correction.
Expected Scenarios:
A retest of $98,000 would provide an excellent opportunity for bullish accumulation within the channel structure.
If the price rebounds from the lower boundary, bulls may aim for $106,000-$108,000 in the medium term.
A confirmed breakdown below $98,000 might invalidate the channel, opening doors for further downside to $94,000.
Crypto Market analysis - Total 2TOTAL2 has been a very reliable chart to base the bull runs on. We're looking at it now to see where we could potentially reverse. For this chart to be bearish, we would have to take out the low at 850 billion. As long as we put a higher low above that, the chart will remain bullish in the longer term.
Between August and November, we went through an accumulation phase, where we put consecutive higher lows after completing a bullish harmonic. We can also see that from the low to the first higher low, before breaking out of the exponential down curve, we retraced a perfect 0.786, which is very typical of a wave 2 retracement. If you then take the Fibonacci extension levels from the high to the low, we hit a perfect 4.618 extension, which is uncommon but very possible for a wave 3 extension. This would currently put us in a wave 4 correction.
We have retraced and have today cut through the 0.382 retracement level and are sitting at the 1.26 support. However, this isn't a reliable support, as it only acted as resistance in the past and has never been held as support. We could, therefore, expect to go lower, and the next level would be the 0.5 retracement level at 1.21 trillion.
For a wave 4, it is common to retrace between the 0.5 and 0.618, and the 0.618 is around 1.11 trillion, which is where the next zone of support sits. I would, therefore, find it possible, if not probable, to retrace all the way down to the 0.618 at 1.11 trillion dollars and accumulate within that zone of support before the next substantial rally.
The next substantial rally will hopefully bring us to all-time highs, but it does not necessarily have to do that. We could retrace and put in another lower high, which would, at that point, confirm distribution and likely indicate a mid-to-long-term pause in the bull market, if not a reversal into a bear market. Until this happens, or we take out the low at 850, we remain bullish.
The last points to consider are that we didn't distribute at the highs and didn't have a major liquidation event, this suggests that these assets will revisit the highs or have deep retraces into them. We are also developing bullish divergence which will mature as long as we stay above 850 b. For that reason, we are not selling anything at these prices.
Conclusion
Analyze prices carefully around these levels:
The current support at 1.26.
The next support at 1.11 trillion.
Look for TOTAL2 to showcase bullish accumulation or reversal.
Once TOTAL2 signals its direction, focus on individual assets that align with the macro trend.
Updates on specific positions will follow.
Start of decline: Below 97821.58
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The Market Cap chart will be updated again when a new candle is created.
I think the gap increase of USDT, USDC is a trace of funds flowing in.
The increase in BTC dominance means that funds are concentrated on BTC.
You cannot predict the rise and fall of BTC with BTC dominance.
The rise in USDT dominance is likely to be reflected in the decline of the coin market.
The start of the decline in the coin market is expected to begin when it rises above 4.97 and is maintained.
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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
The point to watch is whether the StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend from the 100 point or whether it switches to a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
Since the StochRSI indicator is a lagging indicator, you can know the exact value when a new candle is created.
However, if there is a change in the value of the StochRSI indicator when a movement occurs, it means that an important point has been passed.
In that sense, the fact that the StochRSI indicator is maintained at the 100 point despite the current price decline means that an important point has not been passed.
However, there may be fluctuations in the StochRSI indicator value when a new candle is created while the price is falling.
-
(1D chart)
The HA-High indicator is expected to be created at 101947.24.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can be supported near 101947.24.
If not, it falls and shows resistance near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator or 97821.58, there is a possibility of meeting the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
Therefore, before meeting the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, you should check whether it is supported near 87.8K-89K or whether the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is newly created.
If the HA-Low indicator or BW(0) indicator is generated, it is important to see if there is support in the vicinity.
If the HA-Low indicator is generated, it is expected that the current wave will end and a movement to create a new wave will begin.
The start of the decline is expected to start when it falls below 97821.58.
The volatility period is around December 27 (maximum December 26-28).
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
In the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
As you can see from the LOG chart, the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the upward trend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the upward wave.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the upward trend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you to decide how to view and respond to this.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
-----------------
BTCUSDT Near Strong Trendline Support!BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Techncial analssyso update
BTC price is currently trading at the 200 EMA level, which will act as strong support on the 4-hour chart. Additionally, the price is approaching the trend support line, which is considered a key support level for BTC. The volume profile also indicates significant support in the $ 94K-$96K range. A strong bounce from this level can be expected
Regards
Hexa
this is why BTC dropped from a technical standpoint this is what I see:
BTC is testing the biggest challenge which is the YEARLY top trendline so it can be tough to break
the PULLBACK can be painful for investors if btc cant break this zone (especially alts)
But if and when btc finally breaks that, it will be huge and we might not see btc below that trendline again in the future
only time will tell
December 19 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
This is Bitcoin's 30-minute chart.
In a little while, at 10:30 and 12:00, there will be a Nasdaq indicator announcement.
As I explained,
Nasdaq and Bitcoin both reached the center line of the Bollinger Band daily chart,
but Nasdaq is recovering the 12+ daily pattern,
and Bitcoin has touched the center line of the daily chart alone, so the mid-term pattern is broken.
Even if it succeeds in bouncing back from the current position,
it is a problem,
but today, at least in Nasdaq, there is a higher possibility of a sideways movement rather than a plunge,
so we proceeded with trend following.
*Red finger movement path
One-way long position strategy
1. 101796.5 dollars long position entry section / When the green support line is broken
or when section 2 is touched, stop loss price
2. 104828.5 dollars long position 1st target -> Good 2nd -> Great 3rd
If the strategy is successful, the daily chart ends. The 1st section of the red finger is
a long position re-entry attempt and stop loss price autonomous section.
Today, the 15-minute Bollinger Band center line
has not been touched even once, so the strategy is to play at 5+15 or even 15+30 even if it is pushed.
With a strong upward condition, the success rate is approximately less than 5%.
From the 1-hour chart center line touch,
it can be dangerous because it is open downward, right?
Also, I marked the purple finger at the top.
In order to succeed in today's strategy,
you must first touch 102.7K to increase the probability,
and the long position switching position can change from the 1st section touch consecutively.
If the adjustment comes out immediately without touching the purple finger at the current position,
a long position entry position can come out once within the purple support line near the center line of the 30-minute chart,
and it becomes a dangerous section from the 2nd section touch.
You can see the movement within the convergence section of the orange resistance line of the 1st section and the sky blue support line of the 2nd section at the top as a sideways market.
I drew a gray rising trend line in the 3rd section,
and if it doesn't deviate from this section depending on the movement this week,
it can continue to rise.
If the 3rd section touches today, it seems like it will be a double bottom condition,
but I don't recommend it. Bottom is the place where the 12+ daily pattern can be restored, but if a strong rebound does not occur, the candle may deviate from the center line of the daily chart, so additional declines may occur.
Up to this point, I ask that you simply use my analysis for reference and use,
and I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you.
Ethereum: Regaining Balance After a Bearish Trend ReversalEthereum (ETHUSD): Consolidation Phase Amid Mixed Market Signals
Ethereum (ETHUSD) continues to consolidate within a defined range, with the upper boundary near 4085-4100 and the lower boundary around 3530-3440. Despite the recent bearish pressure, the overall market structure still leans bullish, supported by favorable fundamentals—barring certain developments in recent news that have introduced a layer of uncertainty. This consolidation phase reflects a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces, with potential for significant movement once key levels are breached.
Current Market Overview
At present, Ethereum is trading near a critical resistance zone between 4090 and 4100, which has historically proven to be a formidable barrier. Breaking through this zone will likely require a substantial influx of bullish momentum and trading volume. The broader trend remains upward, but yesterday's news has introduced an element of caution. The fundamental backdrop is ambiguous, with hints of a possible shift in monetary policy. While the news of a decline in interest rates initially appeared bullish, indications of a more hawkish future stance have tempered optimism. Bitcoin, the market leader, has shown signs of a minor correction, which often correlates negatively with altcoin performance, including Ethereum.
Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Levels:
4086-4100: A strong resistance zone that Ethereum is currently testing. Breaking above this range could pave the way for a retest of higher levels.
4372: A significant level that aligns with the bullish continuation scenario if momentum sustains above 4100.
Support Levels:
3530-3440: This zone has emerged as a robust support area, underpinned by significant liquidity. It is likely to act as a magnet for price action in case of further downside.
3261: The next major support level in the event of a deeper correction, signaling potential bearish risks if the price falls below 3440.
Market Sentiment and Potential Scenarios
Ethereum's bullish structure remains technically intact, as evidenced by the formation of higher lows and the maintenance of key support levels. The 3530-3440 zone represents a strong demand area, and a retest of this level is a plausible scenario. Such a retest could serve as a "liquidity grab," enticing sellers before the price reverses upward, targeting higher resistance zones.
However, risks of further declines cannot be ignored, particularly if broader market conditions deteriorate or Bitcoin extends its correction. In this case, Ethereum may retest deeper support levels, potentially challenging the bullish outlook. For now, the market appears to favor a consolidation phase, with the potential for upward momentum taking precedence.
Strategic Approach: Trading the Range
Given Ethereum's current position within the consolidation range, a pragmatic trading strategy would involve leveraging the boundaries of this channel. Traders may consider entering long positions near the 3530-3440 support zone, targeting the upper boundary around 4086-4100, while employing tight stop-losses to manage risk. Conversely, short positions could be explored near the resistance zone if bullish momentum falters, with support levels serving as potential take-profit targets.
Outlook for Growth
Despite short-term uncertainties, Ethereum's longer-term outlook remains optimistic. A successful breakout above 4100, confirmed by strong volume and momentum, would significantly strengthen the case for further growth. Such a move could open the door to the next major resistance level at 4372, potentially marking the start of a renewed bullish rally.
For now, the consolidation phase represents a period of accumulation, with the market preparing for the next decisive move. Monitoring macroeconomic developments, Bitcoin's price action, and Ethereum's interaction with key support and resistance levels will be critical in shaping the near-term trajectory.
BTCUSD - Bitcoin's global uptrend is complete.BTCUSD - Bitcoin's global uptrend is complete.
the global uptrend on Bitcoin (BTC) has come to an end. This point of view has caused an active discussion among traders and investors, especially after key support levels were broken and the market entered a prolonged correction phase.
The main arguments of the “wave-watchers”
Completion of the 5th Elliott Wave
According to Elliott's theory, the global uptrend consists of five waves: three impulsive and two corrective.
Some analysts argue that the fifth wave ended at Bitcoin's all-time high around $69,000 in 2021, after which a long correction cycle began.
ABC-shaped correction development
After the completion of the fifth wave, the market may form a correction in the form of three waves (ABC).
Bitcoin's current dynamics, including the price decline in 2022, is seen as the realization of this correction structure.
Loss of key support levels
Levels that used to serve as strong support (e.g. $30,000 and $20,000) have been broken. This reinforces the view that the market is already out of its global bullish trend phase.
Declining institutional interest
Many large investors have slowed down their investments in Bitcoin, which also indicates a possible downturn in the long-term uptrend.
What to expect next?
Wave structure
The current correction may be temporary and the market will enter a new phase of growth (the beginning of a new cycle of waves).
Key levels to confirm the trend
If the price comes back and consolidates above $30,000-$35,000, it will be a strong signal of bullish trend continuation.
A move below $10,000 could confirm the end of the global uptrend.
Long-term outlook
Bitcoin is still an attractive asset to hedge, especially given its limited supply (21 million coins).
BTCUSDT CORRECTION OR REVERSAL?BTCUSDT CORRECTION OR REVERSAL?
Hello, colleagues!
So, what we have in the middle of the trading week:
Since the last review Bitcoin managed to rewrite its high once again and reached above 108K on the Bitstamp exchange.
Also yesterday was the Fed meeting, the decision of which was to lower the rate by another 25 basis points and followed by the traditional J. Powell conference, during and after which the shedding started in many markets.
#BTC
As for bitcoin specifically, the correction was asked for a long time ago and the asset corrected only by 9% from its high and this decline cannot be called unexpected. At the moment, BTC continues to stay in the trend and there is still room for the correction to continue at least to the upward support at $97-98K and we can't exclude the stabbing even lower, to the trading boundary at 94K. But, in general, from these values I expect a buyback and continuation of growth.
I expect such another near-term decline, mentioned above, within the framework of working out of the candlestick formation Absorption on 1D. For the first time in a long time the asset showed a strong bearish candle and just covered the gap for the last weekend on the CME exchange. In any case, a correction is necessary for any healthy market, whether bullish or bearish.
If we compare each post-halving cycle on the logarithmic chart of the 1Mes TF, we can see that the asset has continued to rise for at least another year. Therefore, there is every chance to continue rising until at least Spring 2025, or even Q4.
BTCUSDT: Consolidation After Uptrend Break. What's Next?Hello, dear traders. Brian here!
When analyzing the 4-hour chart, we can see an intriguing setup that indicates the possibility of continued bearish momentum if critical support levels fail to hold. Let’s dive deeper into the analysis.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $97,547, reflecting a slight pullback from recent highs. The price has recently broken the ascending trendline, which had provided support for a prolonged period. This break, combined with the rejection at the Fibonacci retracement zone, signals a potential trend reversal. Traders should closely monitor the $95,713 level and the EMAs to confirm the next move.
If Bitcoin continues to decline, the next major support levels are at:
$95,713 (1.0 Fibonacci Extension)
$93,085 (1.272 Fibonacci Extension)
$89,742 (1.618 Fibonacci Extension)
Wishing you all great profits in the coming days!
BTC LONG TP:113k 16-12-2024The upward trend is expected to continue, targeting a rise towards 113k, with a potential spike reaching between 116k and 118k. Ideal entry points are around 104k to 106k, while stop losses should be set below 101k-102k. Make sure to adjust everything according to your trading style. This projection should materialize within 24 to 30 hours; otherwise, it may need to be discarded. Stay updated with market developments. #Bitcoin #Trading
Altcoins season has not even started!As you can see we are in the same spot that last cycle. BTC running avove previous ATH and total2 still bellow previous top. Once btc gets close to the top altcoins are going to explode, see how LMACD of Total 2 is not even close to the top of the descending diagonal. Scoop some alts now, next 12 months should be bright.
BITCOIN | IF DECLINE GOES DEEPERThe possibility of a deepening decline appears serious, and it’s essential to stay prepared for such scenarios. I have identified my hedge short levels at the red boxes, which I consider key areas for managing risk and capitalizing on potential downward movements.
Monitoring these levels closely will be crucial to adapting effectively to the market's evolving structure.
I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
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BTCUSDT: Consolidating below key resistance. What next?Hello, dear friends!
BTC/USDT is currently on a bearish trajectory, with the price hovering around $101,200. This decline follows comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opposing the establishment of a national bitcoin reserve fund.
From a theoretical perspective, the outlook suggests further downside potential, as the price is currently near critical resistance levels around the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracements, while the descending trendline remains intact. It is anticipated that the decline could extend to the designated support zones.
Wishing you all profitable trades ahead!
DXY vs BTC - Don't Fade the FedVery simple concept that people should be aware of.
When DXY runs it is because investors are risking off from the market into USD for some reason.
Usually DXY will run in opposition to the majority of Stocks, Crypto and other risk on markets.
The Fed has announced yesterday that there will be less rate cuts than expected in 2025 and are hawkish causing a market wide selloff into USD and other safe haven assets.
This risking off may be done and we could see a reversal on the DXY, a failed breakout: or we could be in for more pain.
It's a big warning sign.