100 Day MA seems to be holding strong. Possible Bull Run Ahead!BTC is currently accelerating upward from the 100 day Moving Average. This marks the 7th time this level has been challenged since Sept 20th, and this looks to be the 7th time the Bulls have pushed back hard. BTC is up over 3% since that challenge a few hours ago. If we see a break from this uptrend, especially above $43,000, the 200 then 50 day is very soon after. After that, we're counting resistance levels above, and the 100 day will have been confirmed as strong support.
Notably, this space also happens to mark the bottom end of the uptrend from the COVID crash. Redundant support looks good, but this very young trend reversal will have to survive the risk appetite of the global markets over the next few days. That will be a challenge for the Bulls, but the Bears may be exhausted at this level.
Finally - Apparently around 80% of wallets are now considered "Diamond Hand" long term holders. Additionally, while "Whale" wallets have decreased in number during this downturn, the amount of BTC held by these Whales has increased, meaning the big guys (institutions and mega rich) have been accumulating much more than selling. If things swing back up, retail investors could cause a FOMO rally.
Lots of speculation and what-ifs, but we've seen this movie before. Could go up or down, but right now its looking more bullish than it has in a few days at least.
100dayma
Bitcoin Volume Has Gone Lights Out100 day volume moving average is at a low level that is associated with previous panic-selling events marked by vertical lines.
If buyers don't show up soon, more investors will start to take profits and allocate capital to markets which are actually moving.
I can't make a bullish short-term case for BTC and I think another big leg down is coming.
If the same result plays out, it will be a great time to buy. Maybe even a market bottom. If you look again at the vertical lines, you'll see that price sold off hard both times. When things finally settled down, we put in a bottom that we never came back to.
BTC1!: Bitcoin Futures Confirms 100 & 200 Day Bear CrossWhile remaining neutral-bearish on the BTCUSD charts, BTC1! is looking like a shorting opportunity. There is notably an increase in buying volume over the past week, however the largest volume day was when price was rejected by both the 100 & 200 Day MA simultaneously.
Needless to say, the bear channel resistance is lined up with this MA bear-cross. With the market now closed for the weekend, I'd anticipate some sideways trading while anticipating confirmation of rejection from the bear-cross, ideally between February 5th-11th before breaking down to mid $5K area.
Note, chart posting around the $8K price mark, notably after the close of futures trading at $8,125.
This TA is a follow up from the fractal that didn't occur as expected (time-wise) but did reach it's intended target around $8,500 (price), with the expected outcome remains downside to similar levels :
February 5th-11th 2020 - The Next Swing Low:
Network Hash Gives 10th Buy Signal In 9 Years:
Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low?
Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate:
BTCUSD: Same Fakeout As Same FractalThis fractal extrapolation comes from the September to November 2019 consildation, fake-out, pump and subsequent dump, not so long ago. The fakeout nature of the low is reminiscent of the October 25th pump to $8,800 from the fake-out to the low $7,300 area. Not only do we see the mid-term $7,800 support turn into resistance, but also how the 100 & 200 Day MAs acted as strong resistance to this upwards move.
Similarly, the bounces came after the period of oversold conditions (highlighted in red), followed by finding "algorithmic" support from 30 (in green). Therefore, the target for the (not proportionate) fractal to the upside is $7,650 and to the downside $5,800 support.
The key levels to watch are therefore the same as before:
200 Day MA: $9,350 (flat, neutral)
100 Day MA: $8,300 - $8,050 (declining, bearish)
50 Day MA: $9,795 - $7,800 (declining, bearish)
Related TA:
Could This Descending Triangle Be The Final Fake Out?
Zooming Into The Weekly Chart Doesn't Look Good
Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low?
Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate