10yearnote
US government ten-year yield bonds on a free fall down -16.49%The US government ten-year yield bonds closed its last session on Friday at 0.767 down -16.49% after reaching the bottom of the longterm price channel on the daily chart.
Bond prices have been on a free fall since breaching the support level at 1.440 on the 25th of Feb 2020. In last Friday's session, we saw prices went as low as 0.650 before pulling up towards the end of the session to close around the bottom of the longterm price channel as marked on the chart.
Bond prices could continue further down to around 0.522 in the upcoming sessions or bounce at the bottom of the price channel at approximately 0.841 and head back to 1.314
ridethepig | Historic Moves In Yields !An insane move across Yields with historic outflows, I am expecting some relief over the coming weeks but we the lows are still open for a 5th wave sequence. This target will worryingly come into play at 0.20x! We have intentionally covered the Credit Spreads together here in order to see what is "challenging" in the US economy:
Such compensation is frequently that the recession is forced as the economy ends up in some wilderness. Such an environment is however transformed into a garden of Eden if the transition away from Protectionist Public Sector flows and Governments is opened. The following examples will make my meaning crystal clear:
After VIX exploded 250% !!! via coronavirus triggering the immediate mistake occurred in Monetary policy which sent shockwaves across all main markets. The Fed capitulating is a major blow to Central Banking independence, because the Whitehouse mismanagement and fiscal policies are being funded in broad daylight by Powell. The crossroads between a higher stock market and a higher dollar was always going to trigger the next round of easing and QE.
Of course, Yields can be bought after the lows are set but that takes time. But buyers have no worries, since with a solid centre a loose Rates market is easy enough to defend. Even more than that, Fed's "Loose Gambit" will turn into a slow moving but safe instrument of attack on USD:
And now that we have to some extent defined the logic between the wilderness markets are walking into via the demand and supply shock vis a vis the monetary policy measures referred to at the start of the segment.
For the technicals 🗺
Steel Support 0.72 <=> Strong Support 0.81 <=> Soft Support 0.85 <=> S/R FLIP <=> Soft Resistance 1.08 <=> Strong Resistance 1.17 <=> Steel Resistance 1.24
It is extremely important to track this chart and understand that markets challenging Central Banks, though it apparently only looks like a spiteful play, in fact represents a problem in the underlying structure of protectionism in the US.
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling!
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD (US10Y) DailyDates in the future with the highest probability for price direction reversals
S&P 500 Index Dividend Yield vs US 10 Bond Yield ...S&P 500 Index Dividend Yield vs US 10 Bond Yield ... When S&P 500 Index Dividend Yield outperforms the US 10 Bond Yield usually is a good entry point to buy stocks and sell bonds.
US 10Yr Yield Triple bottom has been breached and this is an indicator of economy enter into the downhill.
Governments across the globe are already ready or has started pumping money into their economy to support the impact of the virus.
Strong resistance line of the triple bottom formed by US 10Yr Yield has been breached, mainly fueled by economy greatest enemy - fear.
United States is expecting the arrival of the virus and will this prompt further flee into treasuries?
Let me know your thoughts below.
"T-Note: last correction before the down move" by ThinkingAntsOkDaily Chart Explanation:
- Price was on an Ascending Channel and broke it.
- Now, it is developing a Bearish Corrective Structure.
- If price breaks it, it has potential to move down towards the Middle Support Zone first and, then, continue towards the Primary Support Zone .
Weekly Vision:
4H Vision:
Updates coming soon!
10 - year yields ready to break out from the downtrend?Are we going to see the 10 - year yield getting out of the downtrend or ready to move lower?
As yields in bonds is getting better, gold starts to lag nicely as it is being dumped pretty fast. Stocks are getting FOMOed aggressively, but yields are starting to rise again. Reaching that critiral point to answer our question will define if the stock's rally is near its end as well.
10Y T-NOTES : EARLY
Here is the situation that resembles gold and silver.
It is early to speak of a complete negativity, only a loss of power in the positive region.
The RSI channel is in a strong image.
It's a little early for the short.
There are new hills up there.
I need at least stochrsi's approval for the long.
I think the bottom of the middle band for the short position.
This instrument is the most traded future.
So I felt the need to share.
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) Resumes HigherShort Term Elliott Wave structure in 10 Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests the pullback to 129.28 ended wave IV. The note has resumed higher in wave V. The internal subdivision of wave V is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 129.28, wave 1 ended at 131.19 and wave 2 ended at 130.26. Internal of wave 2.
The Note has resumed higher and broke above wave 1 at 131.19. This suggests the next leg higher in wave 3 has started. Near term, while pullback stays above 130.24 in the first degree, and more importantly above 129.28, expect the Notes to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Note, and expect buyers to appear once wave ((ii)) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing.
*Please note that market opened up with a gap*
RSI Divergence for 10 year notes on DAILY chart When we look into monthly and weekly charts, both RSI and trends are going up. But when we go down to daily chart, RSI is not supporting tre uptrend, just the opposite RSI is weakining on daily. This may be an indicator of ending bull market.
Buy signal for stocks-> 10 Year US Note Standard Deviation ... Buy signal for stocks, the 10 Year US Note Standard Deviation bottom band... never misses the buy signal for stocks...
Support Cracked Wide Open on the US 10YHere we are witnessing the minimum target from a ABC perspective since the January highs at 2.799%.
This sequence from here on should be viewed as corrective and will be a shallow retrace in the broader trend. There is little support here so the key levels to watch in play remain 2.286%. We may see some choppy waters here, however, the potential to retrace as low as 2.088% remains live.
Best of luck all those positioning for the week.
USD/JPY closing key trendlne, breakout elusive on 10yr yieldUSD/jPY approaching 110.84 - support of trend line from Jan 4 lows.
Break lower likely with RSI below 50. Chaikin money flow below drops below zero.
10-year treasury yield against fails to see falling wedge breakout. If the yield breaks higher from falling wedge, UJ will likely bounce from the ascending trend line support.
$ZN1! 10-Year T-Note Futures ~ Reversal SignsWeekly showing signs of reversal, this is a major trendline that bulls will need to defend or else it gets ugly
Ten's [ZN1] Dollar lost this support for nowLatest breakout here made changes medterm in my opinion and higher levels still possible and thats not great news for dollar bulls.
As long as 122 holds we may see 127.
United States Headed Towards A Recession? The ten year yield peaks about 6 months to 14 months before two consecutive quarters of negative growth (a technical recession). Right now, from our peak in this current cycle we are 6 months divorced from a peak in the yield. Moreover, 3 year over 10 year yields inverted recently a signal that a recession is in the not too distant future. However, massive stimulus in the form of quantitative easing has significantly pushed down the 10 year yield distorting this market. Moreover, the 3 year over 10 year only inverted for around five trading days and is no longer inverted whereas the same ratio inverted for several months in 2000 and 2007. Overall, we are probably not going to see recession from Q2 into Q3 of 2019, but it is in our future whether its later this year or 2021.
Forecast US 10 year treasury yieldThis is an attempt to forecast the yield on treasury notes based on technical analysis. Clearly this is an incomplete analysis as fundamentals will also impact heavily. So let us consider the following a base case. First, there are trends in the yield. I would not call it cycles because they have different duration. Those thends tend to last a longer time, more than six months. I use the average trend duration to make a forecast of the bottom. Second, Fibonacci is used to make a price projection. 38% retracement would mean going down to 2.5% (from 2.8% today). 62% retracement is 2.0%. The fall in yield will not be smooth and will have ups and downs (indicated by an ABC pattern from Elliott. but it could equally well be an 12345).
Forecast: In July 2019 the yield will have fallen substantially. A good benchmark is 2.3%.
The analysis is incomplete because it does not take explicit Fed action into account. A 10 year yield of 2.5% would invert the yield curve even without any further increase in the short term rate by the Fed.
Bonds Approaching ResistanceA nice high-probability midpoint here (circled) - the midpoint here is the price level where strong upwards momentum suddenly erupted (50% fib level goes here). Target zone is roughly 121'05 and up. Looking for stocks to put in at least a swing low when bonds hit this level.
#TNX 10 Year Treasury Note Yield What's UP big dump coming maybeWhat's up. Well DAX peaked last year S&P500 and Nikkei225 kept going up. The "Make America Great Again" maybe. Big "Dump-Ala-Trump" coming soon maybe. That's what bonds telling us maybe Will Crypto go into deep freeze and bitcoin go down by another half (50%) Time will tell. No hurry. Note these are Monthly charts
