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10yearnote

Bonds Remain IrrationalRegarding today's bond market behavior, I am reminded of the following words of wisdom mostly attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." From Trump's successful efforts in negotiating an end to a 70 year North/South Korean war, and denuclearization of NoKo, to the Fed raising interest rates hawkishly, to the ECB finally declaring an end to QE, everything seemed to support the bond market collapsing further. My original profit target in ZN1! was right about where the red arrow is. I anticipated it to retrace the entire move from the FOMC meeting. Perhaps it is because the bond market is historically bearish. Perhaps it is because big players are cashing out of their net short positions, or because insiders know something we don't, but US treasuries have stabilized and have formed a range, if not a bull flag. The Kovach Indicators (at the bottom) show a solid bullish trend, and we have broken numerous levels of resistance. Perhaps we need more data events like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, or Consumer Sentiment tomorrow to help this sleeping giant awaken once more.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
4
Russia-US Tensions & Tehchnicals Can Cause Lower StocksHey, hey, hey. Whats up followers? Are you all in cryptos still or already started following different, other assets since crypto world turned down? I would be interested to get your answers in commentary below, especially from new market participants who joined this crazy world in finance last year. Today I will take a look into stocks since this market can be on risk because of recent events. I am looking at 10 year US note that bounced from the lows in the last two weeks while stocks accelerated to the downside as you know. Ideally move down occurred within wave C on S&P500 chart, where a decline may not be over yet based on recent developments which suggests that bounce from start of April is corrective. In fact, there is also a slow price structure at the moment on 10 year US note, above 120'10, that looks like a wave (B) of an ongoing 3-leg recovery up to 122'00. If that is correct then stocks may see more downside, down 2500 area on S&P500 to be exact, where wave C would be equal to wave A in distance. Also tensions between US and Russia are definitely not supportive for stocks either. Trade well, GH
CBOT:ZN1!
by ew-forecast
2
V3:T2_Comparison of US-10-Year and USD_Postive CorrolationHello Traders! As many of you know I trade USD based currencies which are mostly influenced by the movement of the USD (DXY) Understanding the forces behind USD is critical to trading currencies correctly on a day to day basis. USD and the US 10 year are almost identical in nature. DXY is noted to be more sporadic. Generally speaking 10 year needs to signal lower lows before DXY sticks lower (and EURUSD higher.) Looking at that 10 year we are at a bit of support at this 276.5. If EURUSD is going to trade higher the US 10 year will need to trade consistently BELOW 276. Risk on mode (Long XXX/USD. Short USD/XXX) will remain the primary strategy until 10 year trades consistently ABOVE the highs established at the beginning of March-278.75 level. If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Your data may be different. |V1-T1 = Volume 1-Trade 1| Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
INDEX:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn981629
Elliott wave Analysis: 10 Year US Notes Update10 year US notes can be trading at the end of a higher degree wave III. Specifically we see price unfolding an overlapping price movement within sub-wave 5 of three, that looks more and more like a EW ending diagonal. The speciality of this pattern is that it can cause a sharp a strong turn into the opposite direction, in our case into corrective wave IV, which could see limited upside near the 121.09 level, at the starting point of the pattern. Possible support zone is seen at 119'20, where red waves 1 and 5 would become equal. That said, divergence on the RSI also suggest a potential turning point. An ending diagonal is a special type of pattern that occurs at times when the preceding move has gone too far too fast, as Elliott put it. A very small percentage of ending diagonals appear in the C wave position of A-B- C formations. In double or triple threes, they appear only as the final “C” wave. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All our work is for educational purposes only.
CBOT:ZN1!
by ew-forecast
2
Elliott wave Analysis: 10 Year US NOTES Still BearishGood day traders! Today, let's look at the 10 year US notes. 10 year US notes are surely bearish, and are falling quite nicely, away from 124'25 level of a former swing high, labeled as wave 2. This acceleration in potential five waves will be labeled as red wave 3, usually the strongest and sharpest wave. That said, if we observe closely, we can see that the whole price structure since 125'15 region is situated within the confines of two channel lines, also know as an Elliott wave channel. Well, as we can see price is now trading near the lower portion of the Elliott wave channel line, which can offer support for wave 3, and push price into a temporary correction of black wave 4. Wave 4 can later see limited upside, and possible resistance near the upper portion of the Elliott wave channel. Thank you, and cheers! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All our work is for educational purposes only.
CBOT:ZN1!
by ew-forecast
10 Year US Notes Looking Lower10Year US notes can be trading at the start of a new bearish leg, after a completion of a higher degree complex correction within blue wave IV. Current sharp reversal was quite expected, as price formed an ending diagonal pattern within the final wave (C) of IV, which usually suggests a sharp reversal after its completion. That said current weakness can now represent red wave (1), part of a bigger bearish leg that can unfold in weeks to come. More weakness is now expected on the 10 year us notes, but be aware corrections will pop up during the process, and the first one can already be minor wave 4 of (1). Ending diagonal An ending diagonal is a special type of pattern that occurs at times when the preceding move has gone too far too fast, as Elliott put it. A very small percentage of ending diagonals appear in the C wave position of A-B- C formations. In double or triple threes, they appear only as the final “C” wave. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement. structure is 3-3-3-3-3 a wedge shape within two converging lines wave 4 must trade into a territory of a wave 1 appears primarily in the fifth wave position, in the C wave position of A-B- C and in double or triple threes as the final “C” wave Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All our work is for educational purposes only.
CBOT:ZN1!
by ew-forecast
1