ZN - 10 Year Note FuturesNot good, not remotely good...
When we see the 10 - 30 break down...
It's bad.
3.65 ends this mess by simply taking all Assets far lower.
We can consolidate for a period of time, however small the duration.
10yearnote
Yields / Fed Funds / Rates / Inflation / 007s / TLT / ZN / ZBYou can't fix silly.
You can't fix stupid.
The Bond Market isn't going to fix anything, it assures ruin.
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Buy the Dip hasn't quite worked out.
TLT will head to Sub 52.
You were warned long ago exactly what is happening would.
And explained in no uncertain terms exactly why.
DX back to 125?
Yeah... it's how you end up in ruin. Europe first.
TNX Yield times 2.81 - follow along or lose.
TNX - Monhtly Cross FIngers "Hope" for Pullback on FED balance sheet dumping of Junk MBS and USTs.
All we can "Hope" for...
Should their grand plan backfire...
We head right to 3.50 - 3.60 and it's game over for
the Indies for a long, long time.
4% to 6% would create the worst possible outcome.
It's coming, simply "hope" there's more time on the Clock...
TNX - Walking the Scarlet HarlotPoof, up - down - all around...
2.76 dipped in @ 2.702, good to see.
With the FEDs distro of USTs and MBS well
underway ahead of June 15... gobbling up
Yields aren't working out so well.
No.
Supply Limited thanks to the Fellen over @
the Treasury... is now a catalyst for increased chasing.
Jerry can offload the Junk to Banks desperate for Yields
as they are seeing Loan Activity dry up like the Mohave.
Going to be an interesting Liquidity Crisis unfolding again.
TNX - Running with the Early Rolloffs.With the Fed turning loose the QT poof-fest ahead of schedule, it's been a bad look to date.
Wednesday was to be the Fierst day according to the Fed, unfortunately, the runoff began
ahead of schedule.
Strike another match for the firestarters.
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In 90 days the Rolloff will double, at minimum.
10 year yield broke below the H&S?It seems like the 10 year treasury yield formed a head and shoulders pattern.
It broke below the neck line on Friday May 20th 2022 which confirms the pattern.
Now we'll have to wait and see if it retests the confluence of resistance around the 2.869% area.
A dip in the 10 year yield may cause a rally in the tech sector and also in the general market.
The measured objective of this pattern would be around the 2.4% area over the coming weeks.
However, there are two levels of support in the way.
1) 2.66% which is a short term support level
2) 2.55% which is a historical level of support.
If we close below 2.55% we may be able to expect a further drop in the yields.
Bond Yields thru my 4 decades of tradingI know everyone is screaming about Interest Rates, but thought this would bring some renewed perspective.
Here is a chart of the 10 year Bond Yield dating back to the 1980s
TNX arrived! 10 years bond yield arrive at the top! Every moment that touch this trendline stocks decline and arrive at a bottom!
2 Things to Focus on TodayEquity traders will be focusing on 2 big things today. The action of Bitcoin, and the yield on the 10 year note. The 10 year is already spooking some, as the yield approaches 3 percent again. Bitcoin has to hold right here, or it could test the lows.
ZN - 10 Year Note 2 HourNews this coming week will impact Markets in a broad fashion.
ZN can see a larger RT to overhead POs as can ZB (30Yr) should
The FED engage in larger YCC interventions, and I believe they will
intervene heavily.
Macro Data Ahead:
MONDAY, MAY 16
8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index May
TUESDAY, MAY 17
8:30 am Retail sales April -- 0.8%
8:30 am Retail sales excluding vehicles April
9:15 am Industrial production index April
9:15 am Capacity utilization April
10 am NAHB home builders' index May
10 am Business inventories (revision) March
WEDNESDAY, MAY 18
8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) April
8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) April
8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index May
THURSDAY, MAY 19
8:30 am Initial jobless claims May 14
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims May 7
10 am Existing home sales (SAAR) April
FRIDAY, MAY 20
8:30 am Advance services report Q1
The #1 Chart to WatchLadies and Gentlemen, please take your seats.
(...the music stops)
Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you!
The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily.
It most likely will be a depression via stagflation which we have never really experienced long-term.
Our leaders won't admit it but *News Flash* the Supply Chains are NOT getting fixed like they were before. China has no incentive or interest to fix them and we are the world's biggest debtor. We got 20% of all our imports from them in 2021. That doesn't sound like a lot but that 20% is involved in the supply chains of 70-80% of our goods. The Chinese gov has already warned its people of the incoming food shortage and have been far more honest with their people than our Western leaders have been.
Good luck in the New World Order!
Courtesy of the World Gov. Summit 2022, the IMF, World Bank, etc.
(Not Financial Advice, Just what I see.)
USDJPY Could Retest The Highs, While US Bonds Are DownHello traders!
Today we want to share an intraday update for USDJPY pair in which we see nice and clean bullish impulse in progress, ideally back to highs for wave 5 that can retest the highs and 125 - 126 area.
The main reason why USDJPY may stay up is still an unfinished five-wave decline on 10Y US Treasury Notes.
As you can see, there's a negative correlation, so if bonds are still pointing lower for wave (5), then USDJPY could easily stay up, while the price is above 123.05 invalidation level.
Trade well!
If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Are Bonds Being Dumped to Buy Bitcoin?BTCUSD / US Bonds are Inversely Correlated
Since March 7, 2022 the bond market has been in a freefall, spiking rates, as you can see with the 10 Year Treasury
Bitcoin has been on a rally that started on March 7 with a major spike then pullback the following day, only to take off like a freight train.
This a clear inverse correlation that has set in and does not look like it's abating at all.
Is this really happening? Bonds being sold to buy Bitcoin?
Thoughts? Please comment.
Stay tuned as this is very interesting!
A good time to buy 10 year t-noes in 30 min frameGOOD MORNING,
after the last short trading range, that seems like a semi diamond finally we are over the VWAP and we have a big strength of buyers right now although the candle is red they are here so the chance of an uptrend in the next 30 min nearly 75% due to big volume and the safety we have from the VWAP.
contact me if you want me for any analysis
check my profile to see my "correct" predictions in the last few days
GOOD LUCK
twitter:0uchaib
10 Year Rate: Price keeps moving up!Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1D Linear Chart.
1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s.
2) It has broken out of the top trendline of the falling channel with a recent re-test of the S/R line.
3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges (LONG-TERM). The measured move is noted.
4) There was a Bull Flag Pattern forming on the charts within the falling channel pattern, which helped the price move higher. The measured move for the SHORT-TERM is noted.
5) I discussed this breakout in the first week of December 2021 when the price was still at around 1.40ish. PAY ATTENTION!
What are your opinions on this?
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
10 Year Note - Testing Weekly Upper Bound of Broadening WedgeAll eyes turn back to inflation and rates as the economy is creating jobs. Scouting the reopening trade for Q2.
10 Year Note - Broadening Wedge Bull BreakAn echo of the Monthly Broadening Wedge, the 4-hour broke bull on the surprise Jobs Report.
10Year note - Weekly viewcontinues to trade within the broadening pattern. The growth bounce stalled, and the bond continues to hold in EQ
10Y Bull Breakthe H&S broke for the confirmation, but only to the first maker at the .214. A Diamond Continuation has fueled the yield to back above 1.80
Bond Broadening - in 3DVolatility is the name of the game as the major indexes were in a big range all week. The Nasdaq is testing it's 2 hour UBB with a Bull Flag under resistance. The Russell 2000 also has a Bull Flag after finding 2hr LBB support, setting up a potential Lower High under the 2h 50 SMA. The Bonds gave back the bull break during the FOMC meeting and are now showing a choppy head and shoulders, on the 30 minute, which does not have the nice rolling shoulders. The weekly iH&S neckline remains a point of control.
TNX - 10 YR T-Note Yield - Overblown?This thing is way ahead of where quarterly money flows suggest it should be - I think it will pull back and consolidate 1.10 - 1.150 range. Also looks to be exhibiting the same post-crisis recovery that it followed after the GFC. I'm pretty sure all of these anti-fed pumpers were out there barking about it back then as well.
Also, Bitcoin (all cryptos) still look like crud, barely hanging on minus over 30% and still tired.
Stocks looking real good in terms of quarterly money flows. This recent pull back looks like profit taking to me (maybe another 5% down and reverse but I think we are near the end of the correction. Oil also holding up and actually creeping higher, suggesting demand remains (for now); again, we know that the American consumer IN 2007 - FIFTEEN YEARS AGO - was able to support $100+ / barrel oil. Today we are tickling $86 / barrel.
Fear sells. Listen to the data.
God Bless.
#GoChiefs!
ES1! - Opex Week Preview in 3DYhe 10Y Note Yield Gained 4.8% on Friday, topping out at 1.79%. The echoes from the pundits are calling for a return to value as high beta-growth has seen continued pressure, with ARKK leading the declines. NQ1! defended it's 4h Higher low on Friday with a hammer but remains in a 4h Real-Body Bear-Flag. In contrast RTY1! (Russell 2000) and YM1! (Dow Jones Industrial Average), set lower lows before their bounces. RTY1! is in a 4h bear channel, approaching the upper-bound. Vix lost steam at 22 finding support at 19. For consolidation to continue the path is a Daily H&S neckline break, in the most recent test of the largest expansion in the History of the Federal Reverse's Balance Sheet. This looks like a middle, with major markets offering divergent clues. Opex weeks have a way of offering abrupt clarity.
