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10yearnote

TNX - Walking the Scarlet HarlotPoof, up - down - all around... 2.76 dipped in @ 2.702, good to see. With the FEDs distro of USTs and MBS well underway ahead of June 15... gobbling up Yields aren't working out so well. No. Supply Limited thanks to the Fellen over @ the Treasury... is now a catalyst for increased chasing. Jerry can offload the Junk to Banks desperate for Yields as they are seeing Loan Activity dry up like the Mohave. Going to be an interesting Liquidity Crisis unfolding again.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
10 year yield broke below the H&S?It seems like the 10 year treasury yield formed a head and shoulders pattern. It broke below the neck line on Friday May 20th 2022 which confirms the pattern. Now we'll have to wait and see if it retests the confluence of resistance around the 2.869% area. A dip in the 10 year yield may cause a rally in the tech sector and also in the general market. The measured objective of this pattern would be around the 2.4% area over the coming weeks. However, there are two levels of support in the way. 1) 2.66% which is a short term support level 2) 2.55% which is a historical level of support. If we close below 2.55% we may be able to expect a further drop in the yields.
TVC:US10YShort
by HaseebKhan_90
ZN - 10 Year Note 2 HourNews this coming week will impact Markets in a broad fashion. ZN can see a larger RT to overhead POs as can ZB (30Yr) should The FED engage in larger YCC interventions, and I believe they will intervene heavily. Macro Data Ahead: MONDAY, MAY 16 8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index May TUESDAY, MAY 17 8:30 am Retail sales April -- 0.8% 8:30 am Retail sales excluding vehicles April 9:15 am Industrial production index April 9:15 am Capacity utilization April 10 am NAHB home builders' index May 10 am Business inventories (revision) March WEDNESDAY, MAY 18 8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) April 8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) April 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index May THURSDAY, MAY 19 8:30 am Initial jobless claims May 14 8:30 am Continuing jobless claims May 7 10 am Existing home sales (SAAR) April FRIDAY, MAY 20 8:30 am Advance services report Q1
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
The #1 Chart to WatchLadies and Gentlemen, please take your seats. (...the music stops) Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you! The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily. It most likely will be a depression via stagflation which we have never really experienced long-term. Our leaders won't admit it but *News Flash* the Supply Chains are NOT getting fixed like they were before. China has no incentive or interest to fix them and we are the world's biggest debtor. We got 20% of all our imports from them in 2021. That doesn't sound like a lot but that 20% is involved in the supply chains of 70-80% of our goods. The Chinese gov has already warned its people of the incoming food shortage and have been far more honest with their people than our Western leaders have been. Good luck in the New World Order! Courtesy of the World Gov. Summit 2022, the IMF, World Bank, etc. (Not Financial Advice, Just what I see.)
TVC:US10YLong
by MonetaryRebel
1
USDJPY Could Retest The Highs, While US Bonds Are DownHello traders! Today we want to share an intraday update for USDJPY pair in which we see nice and clean bullish impulse in progress, ideally back to highs for wave 5 that can retest the highs and 125 - 126 area. The main reason why USDJPY may stay up is still an unfinished five-wave decline on 10Y US Treasury Notes. As you can see, there's a negative correlation, so if bonds are still pointing lower for wave (5), then USDJPY could easily stay up, while the price is above 123.05 invalidation level. Trade well! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Long
by ew-forecast
1
Are Bonds Being Dumped to Buy Bitcoin?BTCUSD / US Bonds are Inversely Correlated Since March 7, 2022 the bond market has been in a freefall, spiking rates, as you can see with the 10 Year Treasury Bitcoin has been on a rally that started on March 7 with a major spike then pullback the following day, only to take off like a freight train. This a clear inverse correlation that has set in and does not look like it's abating at all. Is this really happening? Bonds being sold to buy Bitcoin? Thoughts? Please comment. Stay tuned as this is very interesting!
CBOT:ZN1!
by chris333
A good time to buy 10 year t-noes in 30 min frameGOOD MORNING, after the last short trading range, that seems like a semi diamond finally we are over the VWAP and we have a big strength of buyers right now although the candle is red they are here so the chance of an uptrend in the next 30 min nearly 75% due to big volume and the safety we have from the VWAP. contact me if you want me for any analysis check my profile to see my "correct" predictions in the last few days GOOD LUCK twitter:0uchaib
CBOT:ZN1!
by MOHAMEDOUCHAIB
10 Year Rate: Price keeps moving up!Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1D Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It has broken out of the top trendline of the falling channel with a recent re-test of the S/R line. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges (LONG-TERM). The measured move is noted. 4) There was a Bull Flag Pattern forming on the charts within the falling channel pattern, which helped the price move higher. The measured move for the SHORT-TERM is noted. 5) I discussed this breakout in the first week of December 2021 when the price was still at around 1.40ish. PAY ATTENTION! What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
3
Bond Broadening - in 3DVolatility is the name of the game as the major indexes were in a big range all week. The Nasdaq is testing it's 2 hour UBB with a Bull Flag under resistance. The Russell 2000 also has a Bull Flag after finding 2hr LBB support, setting up a potential Lower High under the 2h 50 SMA. The Bonds gave back the bull break during the FOMC meeting and are now showing a choppy head and shoulders, on the 30 minute, which does not have the nice rolling shoulders. The weekly iH&S neckline remains a point of control.
TVC:US10Y
by Pennywick
TNX - 10 YR T-Note Yield - Overblown?This thing is way ahead of where quarterly money flows suggest it should be - I think it will pull back and consolidate 1.10 - 1.150 range. Also looks to be exhibiting the same post-crisis recovery that it followed after the GFC. I'm pretty sure all of these anti-fed pumpers were out there barking about it back then as well. Also, Bitcoin (all cryptos) still look like crud, barely hanging on minus over 30% and still tired. Stocks looking real good in terms of quarterly money flows. This recent pull back looks like profit taking to me (maybe another 5% down and reverse but I think we are near the end of the correction. Oil also holding up and actually creeping higher, suggesting demand remains (for now); again, we know that the American consumer IN 2007 - FIFTEEN YEARS AGO - was able to support $100+ / barrel oil. Today we are tickling $86 / barrel. Fear sells. Listen to the data. God Bless. #GoChiefs!
TVC:TNX
by ChiefMacro
1
ES1! - Opex Week Preview in 3DYhe 10Y Note Yield Gained 4.8% on Friday, topping out at 1.79%. The echoes from the pundits are calling for a return to value as high beta-growth has seen continued pressure, with ARKK leading the declines. NQ1! defended it's 4h Higher low on Friday with a hammer but remains in a 4h Real-Body Bear-Flag. In contrast RTY1! (Russell 2000) and YM1! (Dow Jones Industrial Average), set lower lows before their bounces. RTY1! is in a 4h bear channel, approaching the upper-bound. Vix lost steam at 22 finding support at 19. For consolidation to continue the path is a Daily H&S neckline break, in the most recent test of the largest expansion in the History of the Federal Reverse's Balance Sheet. This looks like a middle, with major markets offering divergent clues. Opex weeks have a way of offering abrupt clarity.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Pennywick
2
Updating the US10Y Bonds.Data for Kissing/Crossing 200Weekly MA: 2017-2019? One year nothing then 11%/20% 2015-2016 : 14% 2015-9 months sideways then 12% 2015 xxxx nothing 2013-2014 Long bull move. 9% pullback. 2011- 8% 2011- 7% 2010- 17% 2005-2007 : xxx long Bull move the crash 05-6% 05- 7% 04- 8% 1999-13%/10%/13% then crash 1997- 10% the bull move. 1996-8% Choppy Market then bull move 1994-9% then big bullish market ( 1 Year choppy market) 20% 11% 7% 7% 8% 36% 14 % ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary: 24 signals Kissing or Crossing 200W MA. 18 signals we went down @ kissing/crossing . Kissing/crossing happened a during pullbacks. 6 months-Year nothing happened then crash crossing down. 75% success rate we will get a pullback/correction kissing/crossing 200w MA. 25% we will continue a Bullish till crossing down then crash - 2 Years after crossing then crash 2007 -2015 cross up/down = Nothing happen to SPX !!!
TVC:US10Y
by samitrading
ZN - 10 Year Note Futures / Monthly @ 20 Yrs / The Abyss of DEBTIt is often said by Quantity Theorists echoing, Milton Friedman - "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Conditions... matter, they change as does the "moneyness of money" - but you can't keep the Chicago School of Economic mind poisoning down. That could be why I didn't play with academia, it is a toxic sandbox wed to a beach at times. Polluting the incoming tides. Friedman could not have imagined how awry his QT has been turned on its collective head. Gold Bugs to this day, quote this - scores of times every single day. "Were Gold Priced in DEBT it would be $250,000+" No one cares, least of all Central Banks who Demonetized it but made it legal to own under Nixon. You all swap fungibles for... Silver? A Weimar home? Taco Bell? Good luck, it's a Tier 1 asset on the Books of Central Banks for a reason and trades at a varying rate as it always has. Q of M clearly isn't tied to it and it's not chasing away Good Money for Bad any longer... those storied days passed very long ago. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Money loses its purchasing power parity in a number of ways - not simply through more money chasing goods and services, this is merely one-sided - "ceteris para bis" Jedi Mind Fuck at its finest. Causation is always assumed from the money supply increase to price rises...a very basic truth, but ONLY a precondition and not a fate acompli. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Fundamental causes of a general price inflation are still supply-side factors - for example, rises in wages or prices of factor input costs - which we see in the PMI data - to date not fully passed onto Consumes due to Supply-Side Shocks ) or demand-side ones - high demand causing price increases in markets. The fatal flaw is QMT assumes an exogenous money world and the wrong direction of causality. The contraction in Broad Money with a Credit Money System aka Bank Money is destroyed as people move to acquire CASH money or what is perceived to be a CASH Equivalent. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Simply Put: Aged Theory is flawed beyond. Supply Side Cocktails and the Ingredients of the CREDIT MONEY Elixirs are quite different than in 1963 Uncle Milty. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Speaking of Credit (DEBT MONEY if you can al it that) the BOE recently raised rates. China, faced with new lockdowns surrounding the - Credit Squeeze (TY to Shevchenko for the prod to dig in and determine WTF) . Turns out 6 property developers including the "Grande" have deferred wages the CCP now says must be paid by the start of the Lunar New Year, oh and... yer gonna need to pay $21.37 Billion in Bonds or default. Sounds bad huh? Not remotely... Back wages amount to $174.38 Billion, can't pay 'em? Lock 'em down, which is precisely what the CCP is setting up to avoid immense Social upheaval. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Are we seeing a trend appear? We are indeed. Debt Defaults have been propped by Governments to stave off tragic Social disruptions. Hardly a footstep in the direction of Trust for Journey of 1,000 miles to default. S'ok China, yer not alone, we proudly stand with you, although we've been at tit longer on this turn, so we're just better at wallpapering over it with Currency Seniorage. Yaun / Renminbi - only one works inside and one outside. Hmmm... That could not possibly happen here in the US of A, could it? Naw. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ When you destroy the Moneyness of Money with it goes all attendant prior theory as well as the very thing used to bring Money into Circulation @ Tier One - The BOND MARKETS. Fractional Reserve Banking merely extends it to obscene levels of Leverage and DEBT which are far beyond repayment. Toss in the 6% Vig the FED takes for this privilege and after a hundred or so years, they end up owning everything. They are, after all, the lender of last resort, the DTC merely the record keeper for when the payments halt and DEBT becomes unserviceable. What are your opportunity costs to Debt? What do you value? Forget Price it's no longer a metric for the sane, merely a distended and starved stomach. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Moral: When Risks are ignored, they are mispriced...
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
7