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10yearnote

NZD/ USD Kiwi/ Dollar &10Y Bond Yields I was stopped out on the last pattern i posted on this pair and now entered on another pattern. An alternate Bat pattern. In the white ellipses we have where the HSI Arrow printed in an area of extreme reading then PA came down out of reaction and both oscillators made it at least the 50 line respectively, and then did the HSI "Check back" that Scott Carney uses was done on the second white ellipsis. if Pa is able to close below the .7166X level we could be in a position to head down as the dollar strengthens. Its all Dependent on what the 10Y Yields hold in store. Currently waiting to see how the hour closes. i will ad pictures of the hour look and 10Y Yield synopsis too. 1H Time Frame looking for a close below the neck line for a nice ride down. the daily 10Y Yield For those not familiar with the 10Y Yield it is the true valuation of the US Dollar. The yield is inverse of the bond price as yields go up prices go down to entice investors to invest in the US Economy (Dollar) and as yields go down Prices go up to protect potential buyers from buying a low yield investment. But, where the money is made in the bond world is that when the yields go down the Bond yield is locked. so at the end of the 10 year period the US will pay the holder of the bond the yield printed on the bond regardless of what the current yield is doing. So, lets say Investor A bought the bond at the very low for lets say 100$/ a bond and he bought 100,000$ worth so that means the yield might be locked in at 2%. Lets say the investor A is strapped for cash, so he enters the bond market with his 2% yield bond it looks very enticing because the current rate is 1.5% so, Investor B approaches Investor A with saying "hey ill buy your bond for 101,000 dollars" Investor A realizes he made a profit of 1,000$ and needs the cash now so he agrees to sell it. Now, Investor B holds the 10Y Bond at 2% and if he decides to hold it to fruition then he too will make a 1,000$ profit on his investment. Now, this is why the bond rates are so important to the US dollar because it will let you know where the long term investors are looking at putting their money as good foundation for their portfolios. This is super simplified on how the bond market works and i am by no means a bond trader. So, if there are any bond traders that would like to clarify or correct me please do so i will greatly appreciate it. the technical is that currently the yields have hit a .382 retracement, and in a very strong trend prices usually bounce off the .382 before moving further. so right now we are printing an indecision candle and so we could see more upward movement for the bonds. A lot of people are worried about the bond yields making it to 2.00% so fast and that it might cause inflation and they are partly right. Because the US is going to have all this excess cash flow in the market making the dollar weaker because its readily abundant in such a short time. A 2% yields has not been seen since 2019. So, we shall See
Short
by ARegularGuy
BONDS 10year yield formed the 1st 4H Death Cross since SeptemberThe US10Y has just formed a Death Cross (the MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing below the MA200 (orange trend-line)) on the 4H time-frame since September 24, 2020!. That is technically a bearish formation. It gets even more bearish if we count the fact that the price got rejected on the 4H MA50 after the bounce. The last time we had such a rejection on a 10-20 day selling sequence was on June 16, 2020. This pattern has the capacity to stop the uptrend of the recent months and initiate bearish momentum on the medium-term. The green zones indicate potential Supports. Personally, I expect the price to drop all the way to the 1W MA50 (yellow trend-line) which is the pivot between being bearish or bullish on the long-term. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> kylevd23 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
6
AUD/USD (Aussie/ Dollar) Here on the Aussie Dollar we have a bearish gartley pattern. i would be surprised if this pattern moves today as the 10Y bonds are having a weak day, and the dollar is weak against some of the exotic pairs like USD/MXN. Its hard to say if you're looking at the Rubble as its having a rough day too. I'm not in the "know" on Russian news. So, again I would be surprised if the pattern moves today. What i think we might see is PA trace up to the shaded area and kiss the HOP level and play around a bit. i would like to see the oscillators move into the extreme zones before considering an entry! Stop is the red lines and tp 1 is 382 of the pattern and tp2 is the 618 of the pattern. Sorry everyone for not going inot super deep detail just trying to push out info and get back to studying! the courses are still in the process, again once my profile goes premium ill advertise here.
Short
by ARegularGuy
5
BTC VS DOLLAR - The correction is not over (yet)BTC & EUR CORRECTION: The Dollar and Bitcoin are pegged in a negative way; when USD goes up, BTC goes down and vice versa. Currently the dollar is having a small breakout to the upside; and thus the EUR and BTC are correcting. At this very moment many people believe the BTC correction is over, I do not think so. Another bad factor for crypto is a new pump for Yields (check my US10Y chart in the link below). TA: Check chart, corrections getting smaller and smaller and we almost finished our 5 major Elliot wave. We could expect a bounce for BTC and crypto by the end of the week, check my chart for levels and validation of a possible breakout to the upside. Target for breakout is between 64-67K, it might get very bloody after that, however if so; the bull market will not be over. MORE INFO ON MY PROFILE: Check my charts linked below for BTC, BTCD, US10Y and BTCD, EUR/USD. COMMENT: I have yet to look at SP500 and NASDAQ so if anyone knows more about the stock market, please let me know. Also I'd be happy to hear your opinion on BTC, USD and the stock market! IMPORTANT: this is not investment advice, trade or invest at your own risk and research.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
3
US10Y Similarities of 2020/21 with 2008/9This study brings forward the similarities of today's price action on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield with 2008-2009 on the 1W time-frame. * In 2008, the bottom was made shortly after the Quantitative Easing 1 (QE1) was initiated in order to offset the sub-prime mortgage Crisis. In 2020 the bottom was made shortly after the 1st Stimulus packaged was initiated in order to offset the COVID-19 Crisis. * In 2009, the strong rebound that followed broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but the MA200 (orange) held, emerging as a Resistance and eventually rejecting the price. So far today, the US10Y is way above the MA50 approaching the MA200. * That rebound formed the fastest/ strongest 1W MACD rise in more than one decade on both periods. * There is a Symmetrical Support Zone involved in both cases. * A Golden Cross and a Death Cross preceded both periods. Will history be repeated? ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> alanmasters --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
10
This is not the catalyst you're looking for. Move along.The bond market took the world by storm this week. The market was already uneasy leading up to the testimony from the FED, but attempted a strong rebound after that. Then everyone realized that the 10 year had breached the 1.5% yield marker overnight. IS THIS THE END???? The poverty-ridden permabears will be disappointed that it is not. Thought they crank out scary-looking charts promising that this time it's different, but it is not. We have really two scenarios. Scenario 1: A repeat of the January 27 correction. This is likely in my opinion. The similarities are strong with both sell offs being triggered by: concerns about bond yields, coming on the heels of statements from the FED, tested the 50 day ema before being interrupted by the weekend. Scenario 2: Another interest rate scare like Oct - December 2018. This is unlikely because the economy is in a fundamentally different phase. And that's what this thesis runs on; that the economy is influencing the market in this case - not the market influencing itself. At the time the market was spooked by flattening yield curves and Fed Rate increases www.pbs.org This time it is precisely the opposite: the Fed isn't raising rates so the bond market is selling off. How's it play out Well, the market will have to start behaving normally relative to the economy at some point. As the economy improves the market will have to correct and grow calmer. The key takeaway from this week is that bond yields are accelerating and will continue to accelerate to try and catch up to the expected inflation rate. The 10 year is still at a real rate of -0.70 while the 30 year is the only one with a yield in the black which is attained at the beginning of February. But it's inevitable that left on their own the rates perhaps won't accelerate but will continue to rise. The actual FED Put 'We will keep our bond purchases at least at their current levels for the foreseeable future.' The FED is not currently buying mid-term bonds but certainly left the door open for it. To exercise yield curve controls the FED will begin buying and hoarding shorter and shorter-term bonds if they are out of pace with the unemployment metrics. The FED is an employment-at-all-costs entity for the next few years and in the week's comments emphasized that they will not settle for less than what they had in January of 2020. The market will continue to rotate more and mix it up more and more going forward.
AMEX:SPYLong
by PreferredStonk
16
Important forbearance measures set to end March.31, final editI'm no expert, but shouldn't any large changes to the supplemental leverage ratio be viewed as a negative catalyst for the stock market? Risky Finance took note of this back in November, writing that regulatory capital had been decreased by as much as $3 trillion for the 6 largest banks due to the feds forbearance measures in response to the virus outbreak.. “The biggest forbearance measure was a move by the Fed in May to exclude treasury bonds and central bank deposits from the leverage exposure measure. That wiped $2 trillion off the SLR denominator, including $619 billion at JP Morgan alone.""Just one of the regulatory changes implemented by the fed in the response to the economic shutdowns would have reduced the denominator (total assets) for calculating the SLR by $3 trillion for the 6 largest banks (regulatory balance sheets)...""...without three critical forbearance measures, some banks such as Citigroup or Goldman Sachs would have been just 30 basis points away from the minimum, which would prompted the Fed to restrict their trading and lending activity.” To calculate the SLR , just divide the Tier 1 Capital by a bank’s assets. Tier 1 Capital = reserves, common equity, plus retained earnings and certain instruments with discretionary dividends and no maturity. In the past, when the banking industry was much more competitive, it was common for banks to market themselves on their surplus (reserve) in order to attract new customers. Changes to the leverage ratio can lead to very large increases--or decreases--to a banks’ ability to lend. To put that into perspective, according to Thomas Hoenig, a former Vice Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, if share buybacks of $83 billion, representing 72% of total payouts for the top 10 BHCs in 2017, were instead retained, under current capital rules, this could have increased small business loans by $750 trillion, or mortgage loans by almost $ 1.5 trillion... But how does this affect the stock market, you might be wondering? Well, if J.P. Morgan is going to be adding roughly $619 billion back to the assets used for calculating this leverage ratio, it should theoretically reduce the amount of credit that will be available for investors to speculate. This, of course, would not be a good thing.. Nick Panigirtzoglou, a top analyst at JPM, seemed to support this idea back in November when he argued that lockdowns could actually become a bullish signal because they would increase the likelihood of more quantitative easing from the fed. "Although it has had a negative impact in the short term, the reemergence of lockdowns and resultant growth weakness could bolster the above equity upside over the medium to longer term via inducing more QE and thus more liquidity creation." If a top analyst at America's largest bank believes that quantitative easing is more important to the stock market than real tangible business activity--even during worldwide pandemic related economic lockdowns--than it only makes sense to assume that any kind of drastic changes to the SLR should also have some kind of impact on equity markets as well. May 15, 2020, Federal Reserve Press Release "For purposes of reporting the supplementary leverage ratio as of June 30, 2020, an electing depository institution may reflect the exclusion of Treasuries and deposits at Federal Reserve Banks from total leverage exposure as if this interim final rule had been in effect for the entire second quarter of 2020. Because the supplementary leverage ratio is calculated as an average over the quarter, this will have the effect of maximizing the effect of the exclusion starting in the second quarter of 2020. The agencies are not making similar adjustments to riskbased capital ratios because Treasuries and deposits at Federal Reserve Banks are risk-weighted at zero percent. But again, I'm no expert, it's just with fed policy playing such an important role in market valuations these days, it's hard not to pay attention to what's going on. Cheers, and hope to hear your thoughts. “The interim final rule is effective as of the date of Federal Register publication and will remain in effect through March 31, 2021.”
B
by stocktradez6
3
Correction On Treasury Bonds Can Be Supportive For GoldHello traders! Today we will talk about 10Y US Notes (treasury bonds) and its correlation with gold. Well, as you may already know, treasury bonds and gold are in tight positive correlation and gold is currently down mainly because of 10Y US Notes. However, a decline looks corrective as we see 10Y US Notes trading in an A-B-C decline, while gold is in a more complex W-X-Y correction, but support may not be far away. While 10Y US Notes can be looking for a support around 132 level, gold may face strong support around 1700 level. Just please keep in mind that we need confirmations, so only if we see strong and impulsive bounce from projected support zone, only then bulls could be back in the game. All the best and trade well! If you like what we do, then please like and share the idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
OANDA:USB10YUSDLong
by ew-forecast
10 Yield Spike Bigger Risk To Markets Than Election?This is the monthly chart of the yield on the 10Y note. VIX Fix shows we put in excess below support (6.00) indicating most bulls have capitulated. Breaking above June yield highs on a strong move out of bonds (perhaps into value stocks?) could bring on a yield of 2.5-3% on the 10 year, a 150-200% move higher. This kind of a spike in yields would eventually bring on a bearish market spiral out of the growth funds/tech stocks, heavily indebted energy stocks, as well as real estate funds. Increasing yields on debt would run the risk of extreme volatility in the corporate bond market, leading to more bankruptcies. Are there enough holders of bonds to squeeze yields higher despite investors' uncertainty? The federal reserve has been buying corporate bond ETF's and can't lower fed fund rates any further without going Negative. This fed buying was front-run heavily by hedge funds who anticipated years of rock-bottom rates as long as the fed provides a floor to bond prices. What could trigger such a yield spike? Most likely a clear winner being called in the US presidential elections, especially if the senate and WH is controlled by the same party. Bonds would sell off (leading to higher yields) as bond holders and those trading the yield curve suddenly realize that the overall market uncertainties which had scared them away from stocks suddenly vanish. While the short-term effect of a rise in yields will be bullish for stocks, expect to see a rotation out of those red hot growth names we've seen run for years along with all other debt-heavy investments like real estate. Their high valuations would be unsustainable with higher yields and a trapped federal reserve. I'm personally long these growth stocks currently, but plan to sell spikes and potentially hedge in the meantime with a short /ZN 10 year note futures position (long yield).
TVC:US10YLong
by Red_Ben
10Y Yield Under Pressure From Strong Auction DemandThe risk free rate took a breather yesterday, and then again today, as (yesterday) the 10Y auction was a smash success, followed by a near record 30Y auction today. We saw $38 Billion in demand in the 10Y auction, driving yields lower, toward the 1.11% level. Then after the 30Y auction today, the 10Y yield was hammered back to 1.08%. Members of the FED made their rounds in the MSM, convincing market participants that the FED had no intention of tapering asset purchases, nor did they see the need to hike rates in the near term. Let's see how things progress as the YCC (yield curve control) conversation becomes the focus on trading desks everywhere. When will the FED institutionalize YCC? Could be as early as the next meeting on Jan 26th. But, I highly doubt they'll admit, yet again, to the world, that everything they've done, hasn't worked. Then again, I've been wrong before. who knew you could just simply change every rule in the book. I digress. Thanks for your time today guys! If you enjoyed the analysis, please like and subscribe our profile, and also visit us at the Hedge of the World website (link in profile), where we do, in-depth, live daily analysis of markets.
TVC:US10YLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
7