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10yearnote

Top Is In? Ugly GDP Print and 10 Year Treasury Yields Break DownI've been waiting for today to arrive as the Q2 GDP print is in and was ugly as expected. The awful number reported (a -32.9% collapse) was expected but I'm looking for some "trigger" that might change the market mood and I've suspected the GDP number could be it. Seeing the worst GDP decline on record, even worse than during The Great Depression, might be a wake up call for the majority of people that never look at economic data, despite the fact it was "expected." In support of that suspicion is the 2nd major event I was waiting for: a breakdown in treasury yields. The last few months 10 year treasury yields have NOT rallied with stocks creating this huge disconnect between a euphoric equity market and a glum bond market--and again this is something the average Joe doesn't watch. Today the yields on the 10 year treasury broke down from the support we've seen holding for months (shown on the chart in blue). It even broke below the spike down that happened on April 21. Yields are breaking lows, bond values are rallying, and this is exactly the opposite of what should happen if the stock market rally were on solid footing. Unless yields reverse and go back up, I'm calling this an early indicator that the stock euphoria has been wrong and the top could be in.
TShort
by MystryBox
6
From Stonks to Bonds: ES->ZNThis is another relatively simple idea. As we are at the end of July we can start to take a closer look at monthly charts. 1. August has finished down (open to close) 60% of the time (12 of the last 20 years). 2. Coming into major multiyear trend lines, August seems to have been pivotal... literally. - August 2007 dropped and pierced support but closed above the trend line providing the last bounce before breaking the uptrend a few months later in November 2007. - August 2015 opened below the trend line, tried to stay above but ultimately collapsed. - August 2020? Well here we are in the last week of July retracing the break of the trend line from back in February 2020. With point 1 above and where we currently are in relation to this trend line, this will be important to watch this week. A close at or below the trend line is bearish and this ought to sell off for the next few months. A close above will indicate a bit more of a neutral to bearish stance. So what exactly does this all mean? - Simply put a rotation from stocks to bonds. How to interpret this: - When this chart goes up, the e-mini SP500 futures will outperform the 10 year note futures. - When this chart goes down, the 10 year note futures will outperform the e-mini SP500 futures. Outperforming isn't what you think... How one of these can outperform the other is: a. One goes up more than the other. a. One goes up while the other stays flat. c. One goes down less than the other - aka one sucks less than the other. d. One goes up and the other goes down (typically unlikely but still possible). How to play this: In order to accurately play the situation described above, there would be a simultaneous short position in ES1! and a long position in ZN1! in equal weight (notional value of the contracts). In relation to outperforming: a. The ZN1! long will make more than the ES1! short would lose. b. Same thing as 'a'. c. The ES1! short would make more than the ZN1! long would lose. d. The best scenario, ES1! short makes money at the same time the ZN1! long makes money.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by GlobalMarketSignals
10-YEAR US BOND YIELDS BREAKING DOWN - BEARISH for SPXUS 10-year Bonds have broken out of 2 triangles now and breaking down. I count 5 waves in this massive triangle that formed between March 8th and June 24th with the final wave "e" itself being a triangle with 5 subways. Remember - triangles - per Elliot rules - are found either as wave 4's, wave B's (middle of a correction) OR as wave E's as the final "wave" of another bigger triangle. Since the breakdown out of these 2 triangles, the lower trendline of the larger triangle was tested at least 4 or 5 times from the underside, and each time was rejected - confirming the significance of this lower trendline and the subsequent breakdown in yields. I anticipate this yield breakdown will accelerate to the downside with strong bearish implications for the SPX, Dow, etc. An interesting observation is that the 10-year rose after making its low on March 8th - while the SPX made its low on March 23rd - 15 days later. Bonds yields are not confirming the rise in the SPX since the 10-year broke down on June 24th and now we are 28 days later so the divergence is past due for the SPX to now play catchup to the 10-year and move down. Cheers! Cyrus
TVC:US10YShort
by cyrusgr8
5
US 10 Year yield looks to be heading lower soonThe 10 year treasury yield looks ready to resolve its multi-month consolidation triangle to the downside. There's room for another run up to the .70% area over the next couple weeks, but I ultimately believe we are heading for lower yields. Note the fairly swift rejection from the rally above the 50MA at the end of May / start of June. I'm not making any plays directly on treasuries, but watching closely because a definitive break lower in yields would signal that stock markets may be heading for a major risk-off move.
TVC:US10Y
by ZChartDoc
WHY THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS!!!!At the begining, SMASH THAT LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE FOR FUTURE IDEAS!! **************************************** I WANT TO KNOW WHY THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS!! WHY ALWAYS SAME PATTERNS ARE REPEATED IN EACH PRICE CHART!! Just take a look on the #ZN1! also, it's price is governed by 3 major patterns (LINES) that you can play with them along all the history of price; - First of all, the green line, which is the line that's plays the role of a MAGNET to the price like a VWAP, you can also clone it like showed on the graph. You will notice a nice green channel that is very nicely respected since 2000. - The second line is the golden line, you can play with it, clone it, or even make a channel with it on the majority of bullish trends and you will see how it fits perfectly. -Finally, the 3rd important one is the blue line. as you can see, it is very well respected after that the price settles on the golden line. (similar to #ES1! patterns, this is why there is a slight correlation between them even if i don't like correlations) (go back in the graph and see how these lines repeats since 2000, i putted some of them on the chart) **************************************** CONCLUSION: I am always analyzing just price action, not predicting it. The overall trend of the 10Y Treasury note future is bullish (long term). there is a larger possibilty for the price to remain in the golden channel or the green one by going back to retest the green support or even the red dotted line (strong bearish signal) , but watch out for the resistance zone (strong bullish signal) . EVERY MARKET IS DRIVEN BY ITS OWN PATTERNS!! THE MAGIC OF MATHS POWER!!
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by MY_GOUIT
10 YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES (ZN1!) Monthly, Weekly, DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. Trades made when the monthly, weekly and daily arrows are pointing in the same direction are the most profitable. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
CBOT:ZN1!
by Dinjin