10Y Note Auction & Why Markets did %10 Movement with Last Data?Hello Traders tomorrow we have 10-Year Note Auction data and I wanted to prepare a nice little information for you about this topic because the data released last month showed an immediate 10% increase and from what I saw, many people had no idea what was happening.
📌 What is the 10-Year Note Auction?
The U.S. government regularly issues 10-year Treasury notes to finance its budget. The auction result reflects investor demand and long-term interest rate expectations. The yield (interest rate) that results from the auction is a key benchmark for financial markets globally.
🔄 Connection to U.S. Stocks and EUR/USD
🟢 If Demand Is Strong (Yields Stay Low):
Investors are eager to buy U.S. debt, pushing prices up and yields down.
This indicates confidence in the U.S. economy and little concern about inflation or rate hikes.
Stock markets generally react positively.
🔴 If Demand Is Weak (Yields Rise):
Investors require higher returns, possibly due to inflation fears or policy tightening expectations.
This pushes yields up, increasing borrowing costs and reducing the attractiveness of risk assets.
Stocks typically decline, and the dollar strengthens.
💱 Effect on EUR/USD
🟢 If Yields Rise:
U.S. dollar becomes more attractive due to higher returns.
Investors buy USD to invest in Treasuries.
EUR/USD typically falls.
🔴 If Yields Fall:
Lower yields reduce the appeal of the dollar.
Investors may move capital elsewhere.
EUR/USD tends to rise.
🗓️ Latest 10-Year Treasury Auction – April 9, 2025
Auction Size: $39 billion
High Yield: 4.435%
Expected (WI) Yield: 4.465%
Outcome: Strong demand – yield came in lower than expected.
📊 Post-Auction Market Reactions
🔹 10Y Treasury Yield:
Before auction: ~4.466%
After auction: Dropped to ~4.38%
➝ Reflects strong investor demand and confidence in long-term stability.
🔹 S&P 500 Index:
Lower yields reduce borrowing costs and support equity valuations.
Investors often shift toward riskier assets like stocks when yields fall.
The S&P 500 responded positively after the auction.
🔹 EUR/USD:
Falling yields reduce the dollar's relative appeal.
This may push EUR/USD higher, depending on other macroeconomic influences (like ECB policy or geopolitical risks).
✅ Conclusion
The April 9, 2025, 10-year Treasury auction showed strong demand with a yield lower than market expectations. This led to a drop in yields, a positive reaction in U.S. stock markets, and potential downward pressure on the dollar, which may support EUR/USD.
10yearusnotes
US 10 year T-note; Clearly a Continued SHORT!Despite appearances US T-Notes & Bills will absolutely obliterate US equity returns in this investment cycle! - The math being inescapable, despite all the wishful thinking in the world.
Let's put an exact number on it; How does >+4% annually over US Equities sound?! (Yes, do check the math - as I'm sure of it!)
Incidentally the U$D is bottoming here and it is a Massive LONG, for now.
E.g. The decline in US T-Notes is likely to be slow and shallow.
Triangle On Treasuries Suggests Limited Upside On StocksHello traders!
Today we will talk about treasuries (10year US Notes) and stocks (S&P500).
Well, as you may already know, treasuries and stocks are more or less in negative correlation and what we have noticed that 10y US Notes can be forming a big bullish triangle, while S&P500 can be finally finishing a five-wave rally from lows.
In EW theory, triangles are usually continuation patterns, so seems like treasuries can be headed higher, which means that stocks can see limited upside, especially now when we can clearly see five waves up from lows and according to EW rules, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows!
That said, if we are right, then ideal scenario would be a rally into the final wave "v" on treasuries, while stocks may see a deeper a-b-c correction! So, be aware of a potential sell-off and risk-off mode on stocks.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
10 Year US Notes Trading Near Support10 year US notes are in an uptrend, but currently trapped in a three-wave temporary correction. Corrections are three wave patterns, so we look lower now for end of red wave c. Support for wave c can be found at the lower channel line and near the Fibonacci ratio of 38.2.