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German 10 year bund (yield chart) giant HS patternGerman 10 year bund keeps scaling. Price action is reflected on the charts. On the long term, seems like the german 10 year bund is building a huge Head and Shoulders pattern. That would be consistent with rates going down in the eurozone. But… if the German bund should spike over 2.50%, that would probably mean that euro rate cuts will be on hold for longer than expected. IMO, it’s all about geopolitics, as it’s also related to oil/natural gas supply from the east, commercial war with the USA, China and India, etc. all of them are inflationary and would also be pushing government spending to the upside on military and defense systems, detracting investment capacity from the private sectors… All to be seen in coming weeks… any insights you would like to share about the topic, please let me know!
TVC:EU10Y
by j_arrieta
Bitcoin - Another sign that Fed credibility is waning.A Sick Feeling in the Belly of the Yield Curve Another sign that Fed credibility is waning. The socioeconomic point of view is that, as the Supercycle bear market develops, central banks will lose their mantle as being omnipotent directors of markets. Whereas in the bull market, central bankers like Alan “the Maestro” Greenspan were lauded because positive social mood was driving the stock market higher, in the bear market central bankers will be vilified as negative social mood causes a downtrend in stock prices. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure Americans that the series of interest rate hikes that the central bank is embarking on would not tip the U.S. economy into recession. The bond market promptly ignored those soothing words and the yield curve flattened. A flattening yield curve, whereby the positive gap between short-dated bonds and long-dated bonds is narrowing, is a sign that the market is anticipating slower economic growth. When the yield curve inverts, with long-dated yields below short-dated, it has historically been a signal that an economic recession is on the horizon. That historical relationship is most generally related to the yield spread between 2-year yields and 10-year yields, and that yield curve has been flattening over the past year from 1.50% to around 0.20% where it is currently hovering. So, not quite inverted yet, but trending in that direction. However, in the so-called belly of the yield curve, the area between 5 and 10-year maturity, the message is already here. The chart below shows that the yield spread between 5 and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has declined precipitously over the last year and, yesterday, turned negative. This yield curve inversion is a clue that a 2-yr /10-yr (2s 10s in industry vernacular) inversion is probably on its way. Despite what the Fed says, a beast of a recession may be approaching. U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield Minus 5-Year Yield
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ferGOD
307
10 Year wants 5%...at a minimumDo you really need to ask if interest rates have topped out? Head & Shoulders patterns at tops and bottoms are generally spot on...this Inverse H&S pattern occurred at a bottom, clearly broke out from the neckline and just wants 5%...at a minimum. "Don't fight the Fed" The Fed is not going to pivot to the downside anytime soon...why would they? What makes anyone think this is on the horizon? Here are the 3 things Powell stated would need to happen for a pause (not a pivot ) at Jackson Hole: 1. Lower Growth 2. Softening Labor Market 3. Inflation on pace to 2%. 2022 Q2 vs. Q3 GDP came in positive and much stronger than expected, Jobs reports remain hot and inflation isn't anywhere near 2%. So at this point, we can't even check off any boxes for a possible pause in rate hikes let alone a pivot . In addition, Powell hasn't really wavered in his statements since Covid, he's been pretty straightforward, so why would he all of a sudden change his behavior?
TVC:US10YLong
by Vixtine
10
10Y Bonds vs. the Dollar Index - DXY On this Monthly Chart we can see the correlation between the 10Y Government Bonds (in teal) vs. the Dollar Index - DXY (in light orange). The correlation is somewhat pretty strong and the 10Y can be used to somewhat predict moves in the Dollar Index (DXY). Now looking at the Daily chart, we can see that the 10Y has been growing from a support level of around the low 3% range. I forecast that the DXY will continue continue to trend higher from the recent low at around the 99.89 level. Of course this is only one of the many other indicators we can use to predict currency moves.
TVC:DXYLong
by Kels
10-Year Treasury Yield Ready to Extend Advance to 2022 Highs?The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising since the end of January in the aftermath of a Bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Now, prices are approaching the December high at 3.905 after confirming a breakout above a falling trendline from October. Meanwhile, a bullish Golden Cross is set to form between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages, further offering an upside technical bias. Confirming a breakout above the December high exposes the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 4.118 towards the 2022 peak at 4.335. US10Y
TVC:US10YLong
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
10yr-2yr Inversion VS Stock market bottomThe last two times of market recessions, Dotcom and the Great Recession both times the stock market did not hit bottom until 3yrs after the inversion happened. Meaning we are only 129 days into this one. I would take advantage of this current rally and not get overly long on positions, but sell out of positions into strength. The FED has made it clear there will be more pain ahead, and they will only strengthen their resolve next meeting. Either way, a .50 basis or a .75 move is on the table stocks will not bottom until the inversion starts to un-invert, as proven in the past.
TVC:US10YShort
by Coulisnosaj
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Bullish Engulfing in Focus Before FedThe US 10-year Treasury yield left behind a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart this Friday. This is as the bond tested a rising range of support from August. A turn higher from here could open the door to revisiting the October high of 4.33. Otherwise, breaking lower exposes the 50-day Simple Moving Average, which could reinstate the upside focus. All eyes next week turn to the Fed, which is expected to deliver a 75-basis point rate hike. The focus will rather be on their language going forward as markets increasingly expect moderation. TVC:US10Y
TVC:US10Y
by QM_Dubrovsky
Prediction of next financial downturnAccording to FedWatch Tool www.cmegroup.com there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020. It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue! The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from fred.stlouisfed.org While the horizontal line (red/green) indicate 250 days moving average; Every time US10Y-US02Y crossed the 250d average the recession occurred but was not announced until a few months later! It means interest cuts will follow during Presidential elections in the US and recession will not be announced until 2021!!!
TVC:US10Y
by Simon_says
49
Did the bond market fail?Over the last few months the 10yr bond market has been developing a long term inverted head and shoulder pattern. This was suggesting a test of the 200dma may be coming up soon and yields would continue to come down. However, today we saw a massive bearish engulfing and a move that almost wiped out last week’s entire move higher. This aggressive move lower in the notes, also dropped back below the inverted head and shoulder pattern neckline after a rejection of the 50% retracement. This false upside breakout could leave bulls holding the bag. The risk (now) is that bonds continue to slide back to the 50dma and yields continue to rally. This could affect the USDJPY as that pair has been very sensitive to the move in 10yr yields.
CBOT:ZN1!
by ForexAnalytix
10-Year Treasury Yield Faces Head & Shoulders, Lookout Below?The 10-Year Treasury yield has been consolidating since April as traders grappled with inflation and recession woes. Now, a bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation is prevailing. At the time of publishing, prices finished forming the right shoulder and were trading at the neckline, which seems to be around 2.70. This is as the 100-day Simple Moving Average is holding up as support. It could still maintain the dominant uptrend. Otherwise, confirming a breakout under the neckline and the moving average may open the door to a broader reversal. Key levels to watch to the downside include the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements at 2.36 and 2.05 respectively. Beyond the latter sits the March low at 1.66. Overturning the Head & Shoulders entails a push above the right shoulder, which is just below 3.15. TVC:US10Y
TVC:US10Y
by QM_Dubrovsky
3
10-Year Treasury Yield Trendline Breakout Faces Next TestThe 10-year Treasury yield confirmed a breakout under a near-term rising trendline from March, opening the door to reversing the uptrend since then. Rising concerns about a recession in the United States, also amid a general slowdown in global growth expectations, are pressuring bond yields lower. Ahead, the 10-year rate is facing the May low at 2.705 where the 100-day Simple Moving Average is fast approaching. The latter could still reinstate the dominant upside focus. Otherwise, more pain may be in store. Below is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 2.3667. Resuming the uptrend entails a push back above the current 2022 high at 3.497. TVC:US10Y
TVC:US10Y
by QM_Dubrovsky