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10yryield

Did the bond market fail?Over the last few months the 10yr bond market has been developing a long term inverted head and shoulder pattern. This was suggesting a test of the 200dma may be coming up soon and yields would continue to come down. However, today we saw a massive bearish engulfing and a move that almost wiped out last week’s entire move higher. This aggressive move lower in the notes, also dropped back below the inverted head and shoulder pattern neckline after a rejection of the 50% retracement. This false upside breakout could leave bulls holding the bag. The risk (now) is that bonds continue to slide back to the 50dma and yields continue to rally. This could affect the USDJPY as that pair has been very sensitive to the move in 10yr yields.
CBOT:ZN1!
by ForexAnalytix
ZN - 10 Year Note 2 HourNews this coming week will impact Markets in a broad fashion. ZN can see a larger RT to overhead POs as can ZB (30Yr) should The FED engage in larger YCC interventions, and I believe they will intervene heavily. Macro Data Ahead: MONDAY, MAY 16 8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index May TUESDAY, MAY 17 8:30 am Retail sales April -- 0.8% 8:30 am Retail sales excluding vehicles April 9:15 am Industrial production index April 9:15 am Capacity utilization April 10 am NAHB home builders' index May 10 am Business inventories (revision) March WEDNESDAY, MAY 18 8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) April 8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) April 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index May THURSDAY, MAY 19 8:30 am Initial jobless claims May 14 8:30 am Continuing jobless claims May 7 10 am Existing home sales (SAAR) April FRIDAY, MAY 20 8:30 am Advance services report Q1
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
TNX - 10Yr Yields Sell Offers and Bond VX / Trouble Bond Bagholders just never learn - this Secular Cult is doomed to extinction. The two-year Treasury yield posted its biggest single-day jump since the market volatility of March 2020. Of course, this was after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell promoted the Policy Flip Flop that the Fed will raise rates in March, and left the screen porch door open for a quicker than-anticipated pace of rate increases. The Dot Plot is wiggling in excitement. IN reality, the FED will begin to Temper expectations. It is what they do - Lie Cheat Steal / Delay. 10 Yr Yields have seen another fantastic ROC-driven Spike which advanced well ahead of the Pre-Spring Meltup in 2021. __________________________________________________________________ TNX will provide a very large indication as to how the preset Wedge on the ES/NQ resolve, likely this week... Keep it in purview at all times, sudden violent reactions are to be expected.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
TNX - 10Yr Yield /'Come on IN Equity Dip Buyers"The waters warm - just fine and we assure you there are no predatory creatures lurking about. Please ignore the Trend. Our assumptions include: The Herd is always Correct. CNCB and Lacy Hunt are "Pitch Perfect". Rates are heading lower, towards ZERO. TLT's hiccup this morning is nothing, simply a small bump on the road until 172. Debt doesn't matter, It's in the "Future" - we never subscribe to the idea of "Back to the Future" as our overlords are merely us from the Future... We are cocksure confident - "This is It~!" No more down, only up, the SELL is Over. No one would dare SELL Bonds here with Negative Real Returns. No one would demand higher rates, ever... regardless of the insurmountable DEBT Load. The FED won't' permit the Bond Vigilantes to Price in Inflation again as it is - wait for it... "TRANSitory. Yeah, naw, wrong again desperados. Looking rather forward to the NEXT SELL in TLT. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
4
TNX - 10Yr Yield largest SELL Side Offer since Mid-FebruaryPricing in "Inflation" has been a series of rapid events for Price. Yields began the highest velocity spike in History during the January to April adjustment. Bond Sellers have begun to increase their Sell. Retail is now 83% Short against the NQ ES YM... ahead of the most important Week we have had in Months, Since February. TNX has run-up to its -.236, a Catalyst Level. Duress in Bonds will further increase VX in Equities, both directions as there are only a limited number of Capital Pools. Money will flow where the returns can develop: CASH METALS COMMODITIES BONDS STOCKS REAL ESTATE Crypto (Unregulated Illusory Capital) Choose wisely, this cuts both ways. It is remarkable how few Bond Holders did not envision this possibility. The engrained mindset becomes one of defiance at any cost to preserve the Cult's Dogma. The Bond Market within the United States is ever so slowly being destroyed, its destruction is accelerating for reasons we have outlined repeatedly. Trade Safe out there, disruptions are simply beginning. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
12
10 Year Note YieldPrice is moving in a well-defined channel on the Shorter duration. The DX remains stubbornly over 94, a level that appears to be acting as Support for now. A pause that refreshes, one that TLT is attempting to make sense of in its way to 139. TLT tracks a market-weighted index of debt issued by the US Treasury with remaining maturities of 20 years or more out to 30 years. What remains a clear divergence is the weighting to the Mid-Point of the UST Curve. TLT is sickly as ZB underperforms ZN to the downside, it holds up better in a SELL due to duration. This divergence has been growing for some time and provided a clear indication all is not well in the Land of Wood Paneling. A veneer so thin, you can see through it... if you are paying attention. Fortunately, most do not, the tendency towards swilling the "conventional wisdom" satisfies their cleft palates. Repeated Pies in the face, a welcome event as Purchasing Power Parity continues to decline. The Market is raising rates out the Curve in defiance of YCC. The thinking is... you're borrowing insane amounts of Debt and we are collecting Chicken Scratch... you'll need to pay us more. You may control the Short end of the Curve, but out here... all you can do is offload your accumulated Debt on your balance sheet to feed us - xoxo 007 Reverse Repurchases increased 60% in 30 Days to $1.621 Trillion. 60% in 30 days. Yeah, naw, that is not going to work much longer - the revolt has simply just begun.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
8